Sino Vietnamese Crisis 1975 to 79

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TllE SINO-VII: 'I"AMESE C R I S I S , 1 9 7 5 - 1 9 7 9 : AN IIISTOKICAL CASE STUDY

A t h e s i s p r e s e n t e d t o ttie F a c u l t y of t h e U.S. Ariny

Conimnnd a n d G e n e r a l S t a f f Col lege i n p a r t i a l

l u l f i l l n i e n t o f t h e r e q u i r e m e n L s fo r t h e

d e g r r e

MASTE:I< O F MILITARY AICT M I ) SCIENCE

by

M A R K A . C O Y L E , C P T, USA

I \ . S . , G e o r g e to w n U n i v c r s i t y , 1968

M . A . , U n i v e r s i t y o f I l l i n o i s , 1 9 7 3

F o r t L e a v e n w o r t t i , Kansas

19R5

A p p i - o v e d for p u b l i c rc lease; d i s t r i b u t i o n i s u i i l i m i t c d .



MASTER OF MIi2r:rAw ART A N D S C L E N C E

THES I S APPROVAL PAGE

Namt, o f c a n d i d a t e M A R K A . COYLE

T i t l i , o f t h e s i s THE SINO-VIETNAMESE CRISIS, 1 9 7 5 - 1 9 7 9 : AN

HISTORICAL CASE STUDY

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Approved b y :

,T h e s i s Committee Chairinari

w%,Vw.M smber, G r a d u a t c F n c u l ~ y

I , JOSEPH It. GOLDMAN, l ’ h . D . , Ph.

- _ _c ce p tr d t h i s a y of& 1985 by

D i r(* t or , Grndua t e Degree Programs.

T h e opinions a nd c o nc 1u :; io n s e x p r e s s e d h e r e i n a r c t h o s e of t h e s t u d e n t

author and do n o r n e c e s s a r i l y r e p r e s e n t the v i e w s o f t h e U.S. A r m yCommand and Genera l. S ta f f Col lege o r any ot h e r governmenta l agenc y.

( R e f e r e n c e s.- o t h i s s t u d y sh ou ld in c Lude t h e f o r e g o i n g s t a t e m e n t . )

i i



ABSTRACT

THE SINO-VIETNAMESE CRISIS, 1975-1979: AN H I S T O R I C A L CASE STUDY, b y

Captain Mark A . Coyle , USA

How d id China and Vie t Nam e a c h r eac t t o t h e c r i s i s i n t h e i r r e l a t i o n s

between 1975 and 1979? Why di d t he Chinese ul t i ma te ly wage war ag ai ns t

the Vie tnamese? T h i s work i s a n h i s t o r i c a l c a s e st ud y t h a t a d d r e s s e s

t h e s e c e n t r a l q u e s t i o n s .

I n t e r n a t i o n a l c r i s i s management r a s e s t ud ie s done by Allen Whi t ing , Ole

H o t s t i , A l t x n n d ( ~ rGeor ge, and Ric har d Smoke Eorm a base Eor developing

the a n a l y s i s . J o u r n a l i s t i c r e p o r t s a nd g ov er nm en t d o ci u wn t s c o n s t i c u t et h e m ajo r i t y of the pr imary source m ate r i a l s u s e d .

I lo th Hanoi and Uei j ing Eelt t h a t t h e o t h e r p os ed a s e r i o u s t h r e a t t n i t s

n at io na l s ~ x u r i t y . Each s i d e s o u g h t t o comnunicate i t s conce rn t o t h eo t h e r t h r o u g h a s e r i e s oE s i g n a l s . The s t u d y f o c u s e s m a i n ly on t h e

p a t t e r n oE C h in e se s i g n a l s , a s B e i j i n g re sp on de d t o w h a t i t c o n s i d e r e d

i n c r e a s i n g l y u n a c c e p t ah l e b e h a v i o r b y Hanoi. 'She means of d e l i v e r y , t h e

r h e t o r i c a l i n t e n s i t y , t h e l e v e l o f i s s u i n g a u t h o r i t y , and t h e r e l a t i v et i m i n g oE t he s i g n a l s a11 s h o w e d i n d i c a t i o n s o € e s c al a t i n g a s t h e c r i s i s

became morc s e v e r e .

'The pape r pro po ses an ind ex of i n d i c a t o r s by which t o j u d g e t h e p r o g r e s s

o f c r i s i s d ev el op me nt and c r i s i s c o n t r o l . O n e oE t h e c h ie E d i E E i c u l t i e si n t h e S i n o -V i et n am e se d i s p u t e was a c o n f l i c t of p e r c e p t i o n s . E a c h s i d e

was using a d i E € e r e n t p e r s p e c t i v e i n v i ew in g i t s own an d t h e o t h e r

s i d e ' s p o s i t i o n . By u s i n g i n d i c a t o r s t o u n d er s ta n d c r i s i s d ev el op me nt

more fu l l y , dec i s i on -make r s may be a b l e t o e x e r c i s e c r i s i s nlanagement

m o r e e f f e c t i v e l y .

i i i



ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I w i s h t o a c k n o w le d g e t h e s p e c i a l a s s i s t a n c e g i v e n m e i n t h e

p r e p a r a t i o n of t h i s s t u d y by L T C J o s e p h A . S c h l a t t e r a nd Dr. J o s e p h R.

G o l d m a n . LTC S c h l a t t c r - s d e t a i l e d k n o w l e dg e o f C h i n e se s t r a t e g y a n d

S i n o - V ie t n a m e s e r e l a t i o n s was i n v a l u a b l e i n i n t e r p r e t i n g t h e e v e n t s t h a t

l e d t o t h e 1 9 7 9 war. D r . G old m an -- wh o h o l d s tw o P h. D. s, i n h i s t o r y a n di n p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e - - h e l p e d g i v e d i r e c t i o n an d s c o p e to t h e s t u d y .

8 0 t h g e n t l e m e n c h a l l e n g e d me t o e x p l o r e t h e s u b j e c t i n g r e a t e r d e p t h a n df ro m p e r s p e c t i v e s I p r e vi o i . i s l y h ad n o t c o n s i d e r e d .

iv



TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

APPROVAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1

ABSTRACT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i i i

AC KNOWLE DGliMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i v

TABLE OF CONTENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v

Chapter

. .

1 . INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i

r’roblem Statement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Research Quest ons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

Limita t ions and De l imi ta t ions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

S i g n i f i c a n c e o f the Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Subsequent Chapters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

2 . SUIWEY OF THE LITERATURE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

I n tr oduc t ion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Analyt ica l Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Documentary Materials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Chinese . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Vietnamese . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

T h i r d p a r t y . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

General Mater ia ls . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

. ournals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Rooks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

V



3 - A M E T H O D O L O G Y . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i1

A Theory of D e t e r r e n c e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

D e c i s i o n s u n d e r S t r e s s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

H i s t o r i c a l Case S t u d i e s

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14

G e n e r al S i m i l a r i t i e s . 1 95 0 a n d 19 62 . . . . . . . . . . 14

"Threa ts and T h e i r D e t e r r e n c e as Seen

from Bei j ing" . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

C h i n e s e S i g n a l s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Methodology f or Thi s Thes is . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

4 . 'Trac ing the Troubl es . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 1

Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 1

A T r a d i t i o n of T r o u b l e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

C o o p e r a t i o n a g a i n s t C o l o n i a l i s m . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 3

T h e Geneva Convention . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

The Viet Nam War and the S ino -So v ie t

D i s p u t e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

Era of t h e P a r i s P e a c e A c c o r d s . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

ATheme . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

I n t e r e s t s . G o a ls . a nd S t r a t e g y . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

V i e t N a m . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

P e r c e p t i o n s a n d M i s p e r c e p t i o n s . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

A P o l i c y of Caution. 1975-1977 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

Content ious Is sue s. 1975 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Conten t ion Cont in ues. 1976-1977 . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

v i



ContenLion Becomes C r i s i s . 1978-1979 . . . . . . . . . . . 47

Emerl;ing C r i s i s . January t o L a te

Fehni:iry 1978 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

I l e i g h te n i n g C r i s i s . L a t e F e b r ua r y t o

I.ote May 1978 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48

C r o s s in g a C r i t i c a l T h r e sh o l d. Late

May and E a r l y June 1978 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

G s c a l a t i n g A t t a c k s . M i d J u n e t o M i d

.July 1978 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

Contend ing and Nego t i a t i ng . Mid Ju l y

through October 1978 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56

Edging toward the Precipice . Novembfr

a n d December 1978 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60

I ' repar ing fo r War. Jan uar y t o Mid

February 197Y . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62

j CONCLUSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 ' 1

T h e D e c i s i o n t o GO to war . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73

Til,? Relevance of H i s t o r y . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74

'The Pcrcep t i . ons ( I € D e t e r r e n c e 7 5. . . . . . . . . . . . .

Rvac t i ng u n d e r S t res s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7')

C h i n e s e I k t e r r e n c e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

A n Indtix of I n d i c a t o r s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 1

O b l i q u e M o d e r a t e S i g n a l l i n g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81

I n d i r e c t A c cu s at or y S i g n a l l i n g . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82

D i r e c t A c c u s a t o r y S i g n a l l i n g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83

Face - t o -Face Accusa to ry

S i g n a l l i n g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83

Warning S i .g n a l l i n g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84

v i i



An Examination of the Indcx . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Content ious Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .D e l ivery Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .I n t o n s i t y Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Authority Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Timing Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

U t i l i t y of the I n d e x . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A Caveat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

UIRLIOGIUI’HY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .D I S T R I B U T I O N . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

86

86

87

88

88

88

89

9 1

95

1 0 2

viii



C h a p t e r 1

INTKODUCTI ON

Prob lern S t a tenieii t

The? piirpost' of t h i s s t u d y i s t o e x a m in e t h e e v e n t s l e n d i n g up t o

t h c I979 war be tween t h e IJeoplc 's R e p u b l i c o f China P I X ) mid the

So ci aI . i s t IRi'piibI i c o f V i c t Nan1 (SKV) and t o a n a l yz e t h e s f e vi , nt s i n

t( r11ls o t t i l t m y s t h a t C hi na p r o t e c t s i t s s t r a t i ?g i c i n t e r e s t s i n

Sciut he as t A ; i a .

Background

The war b e t w e n Co mmun is t Ch in a a n d Communist Vie t N n m p r e s e n t e d

tlle world w L t h 011 i n t r i gu i n g s i t u a t i o n .

B e i j i i i g and H a i i o i L o be "as c lo se a s l i p s a n d t e e th"? Had n o t Be i j in g

been a s t a u n c h s u p p o r t e r of Hanoi in i t s t h i r t y - y e a r d r i v e t o c11nqt1er

S o u t h Viet N a m ? Why d i d r e l a t i o n s between t h e two C ol m un i st s t a t e s

d c t e r i o r a t e ? Why, i . nd ee d , d id the? PRC f e e l c om pe ll ed t o i n i t i a t e a rmed

h o s t i l i t i e s a g a i n s t t h e SRV?

Had not Zhou Enlai dec1arc.d

T h e h i s t o r y o t S i no - Vi e tn am es e r e l a t i o n s , from t h c t i r s t m i l l e n n i u m

H.C. o n , r c v e a l s a n i m o s i t y and c o n f l i c t i n g i n t e r e s t s . 'The i m p o s i t i o n of

Communist rrgimrs i n b o t h c o u n t r i e s d i d n o t c h an ge t h i s . An e x a m i n a t i o n

a ~ l d n a l y s i s o f the e v en t s t h a t p r e c i p i t a t e d t h e uar ma y s h e d l ig h t on

C h i n a - s p e r c e p t i o n o f i t s v i , t a l i n t e r e s t s and s t r a t e g i c o b j e c t i v e s .

S u c h a s t u d y may a i d i n i n t e r p r e t i n g t h e s i g n a l s C hi na g i v e s d u r i n g a

1



c r i s i . s , e s p e c i a l l y a s t h e c r i s i s t e n d s t o b a r d w a r .

Resea rch Ques t i ons

T h i s s t u d y o f t h e S i no - Vi et n am e se c r i s i s t h a t d e v e lo p ed a f t e r 1975

b i l l . e x p l o r c s e v e r a l q u e s t i o n s :

( 1 ) Hob has China perceived i t s s t r a t e g i c i n t e r e s t s i n v ol vi ng Viet

Nam, Indoch ina , and Sou thca s t Asia?

( 2 ) How does t h e h i s t o r y o f S i no - Vi et n am e sc r e l a t i o n s e l u c i , d a t e

Ct i ina 's fe e l in gs about v iotn ;m~ose independcncc and Vietnamrsc hegcmony

i n Indoch ina' ?

( 3 ) I n G h a t r e s p e c t s has t h c PRC perceiVCd Vie t Nam t o be a t h r e a t

t o C h in es e i n t e r e s t s s i n c e 19 75?

4 ) has China communicated i c s posi t i .Cn to Vie t Nam? dhat

a nd n e g a t i v e s i g n a l s d i d i t g i v e ?

( 5 ) What ac t i on s has China tak en bhen i t s signals have gone un-

heeded '

( 6 ) How d i d t h e Chinest . and Vietnamese r r spon d t o t h e c r i s i s v hi ch

arose bet bee n 1975 and 1 9 7 Y ?

s t r e s s ?

Hob d i d each s i d e r e a c t un de r i n c r e a s i n g

(7) U l t i m a t e l y , G hat a r e t h e c o n d i t i o n s u n d e r b h i c h C h i n a b i l l go

t o G ar ?

L i m i t a t i o n s a nd D e l i m i t a t i o n s

The s t u d y c o v e r s p r i m a r i l y t h e per iod Trmn 1975 t o 1979, and i t

f o c u s e s on t h o se i n c i d e n t s t h a t l e d t o t h e b a r . China and Vie t Xam are

the main a c t o r s d i s c u s s e d ; b u t a t t e n t i o n i s g i v e n t o t h e S o v i . ~ tUnion,

t he Uni t ed S t a t e s , and Cambodia i n terms of t h e r o l e s t h ey p l ay e d .

2



_-i g n i f i c a n c e of ttic Study

I)etermininl : bh a t mot i va t es t h e C hi ne se t o f i g h t and hob lnuch ~ o r ~ -

s i s t e n c y t t l tbrc i s in t h e i , r warmaking p o l i c i e s i.s s i g n i f i c a n t f o r A i n c r i -

can s t r a t e g i c p1;innii ig i n Cast Asi a .

Subseqiient Chapters

The s w o n d c h a p t e r of' t h i s t h e s i s s u r v e y s t he p ri nc ip il l l i t e r a t u r c

t h a t i s npp : i cah lc co t h e S i no - Vi e tn a me s e c r i s i s of c h c l a t t . 1 9 7 0 s .

Chap tc r t h r p e c x p l o r e s a nn? t h o d o l o g i c a l a p pr o ac h t o a n a l y z i ng t h r

c v cn c s . S e v e r al t h e o r i t - s d e a l i n g w i t h d e t e r r e n c o arid c r i s i s b e h av i o r

nrr examined.

The f o ii r t h c h a p t e r t r a c e s the e v e n t s t h a t c u l m i n a t e d i n the a r t i i a l

f i g h t i n g i n 1979. I L t r i ? a t s b r i e f l y t h e Long h i s t o r y o f d i s c o r d t h a t

h a s e x i s t e d b e t h e m China 2nd Vi.et N e m 2nd qucsc ions b h e th c r t h e t h o

c o u n t r i e s w r e ~ v e r as c l o s e a s l i p s and te e th ." China and V i c t Nan1

h a d i n t e r e s t s a n d ob. iec t iv t?s i n Indo china whi.ch oEten came i n t o con-

f l i c t .

be theen 1 9 7 5 and 1 9 7 9 t h a t brough t on t h e war. P a r t i c u l a r c o n s i d e r a t i on

i s giv en t o t hos e moves o f H an oi t h a t B e i j i n g f oun d i n t o l e r a b l e and t h e

mHnner in which th( C h i ne s e l e a d e r s h i p s ou g h t t o s i g n a l i t s d i s p l e a s u r e

t n t t ~ c i rt na ni i~ scand t o managc t he c r i s i s .

Chapter Eour thcn Cocuscs on the a c t i o n s of t h e PRC and the SRV

C h a p t e r f i v e draws g e n e r a l c o n c l u s i o n s b a se d on t h e r e s e a r c h q u e s -

t i o n s .

war?

Ul t i ,ma te ly , w h a t a r c t h e c o n d i t i o n s u n d e r which China w i l l go CO



Chap te r 2

SCRVEY OF THE 1,ITEIWTURE

I n t r o d u c t i o n

'The Survey of t h e L i t e r a t u r e w i l l bc r e s t r i c t e d t o t h os c i tems t h a t

h a v e a d i r e c t b e a r i n g o n t h e Sino-Vie tnamese c r i s i s of 1975-1979 and i t s

i n t e r p r e t a t i o n . B r oa de r h i s t o r i c a l s o u r c e s and a n a l y s e s a r e i n cl u de d i n

t h c b i b l i o g r a p h y .

A n a l y t i c a l M od el s

Alexander George and Richard Smoke have ana lyz ed de te rr en ce t heo ry

i n d e t a i l i n t h e i r work D e t e r r e n c e i n A me ri ca n F o r e i g n P o l i c y : T he or y

and Pr ac t i ce . They examine severa l models o f d e t e r r en c e a nd c r i s i s

behavior. One o f t h e i r main con ten t ions i s t h a t t h e s e t h e o r i e s must b e

t e s t e d by h i s t o r i c a l c a s e s t u d i e s .

p o i n t s th e way t o a g r e a t e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g of t h e o p e r a t i o n oE d e t e r r e n c e

t hr ou gh h i s t o r i c a l a n a l y s i s .

-

'The hork i s v a l u a b l e because i t

Ole R. Ho ls t i ha s done a l a r ge amoun t o € w o r k i n v e s t i g a t i n g t h e

ways in which d ec i s i on s a r e made b y n a t i o n a l l e a d c r s i.n c r i s i s s i t u a -

t i o n s .

1965 and i n C r i s i s , E s c a l a t i o n , War, H o l s t i m a i n t a i n s t h a t l e a d e r s do

n o t u sr ia Ll y r e s p o nd b i t h c o o l c a l c i i i . a t i o n i n t imes of c r i s e s and t h a t

t h e s i g n a l s t h ey g i v e o ne a n o t h e r a r e n o t a lw ay s c i e a r a nd e a s i l y u n de r -

s t o o d . T h i s i s i m p o r t an t b e ca u s e t h e o r i e s o f d e t e r r e n c e a n d c r i s i s

In " T h e I914 C a s e , " Amer ican Po l i t i c a l Sc ience Rev iew, J u n e ,--

_

L



m an ag em en t g e n e r ; i l , l y a s su m e m u t u a l u n d e r s t a n d i n g a n d r a t i o n a l d e c i s i .o n s.

T ) e c i s i . o n i n c r i s i s i s s l s o t r e n t e d b y O r a n Y oung in T h e P o l i t i c s o f__

Force : I l a r g a in i n ) ; D u r i n g [ n t c r n a t i o n a l C r i ~ t ~ . oung l o o k s a t t h f ,

s p e c t r u m 1: c o e r c i o n by wh ic h n a t i o n s t r y t o i n E l u e n c e o n e a n o t h e r .--_ -

T h e w o r k of A l l e n W h i t i n g i s a l s o v a l u a b l e t o t h i s t h e s i s . w t l i t i r i g

h a s done tw o d e t : i i I c d h i s t o r i c a l c a s e s t u d i e s o f t h e P R C ' s e n t r y i n t o

wars. C h i . n ; i C r o s s e s t h e ah: 'Phe D e c i s i o n t o E n t e r t h e or ear^ w a r

n n a l y z c s t h v p r e l u d t . t o t h e PRC's goi.rig i n t o K o r ~ a n 1950; and l t11~

C I I i n e s t C a l c u l u s o r D e t r r r e n c e : I n d i a :and I n d o c h i n a c o n s i d e r s t h e

e v e n t s l e a d i n g u p t o t h e S i ,n o - I n d i a n W a r of 1 9 6 2 .

C h i n e s e l e a d e r s h a ve p r ov e d t o b e v t . r y c a u t i o u s i n t h e i r w a r m a k i n g

p o l i c i e s , t h a t t h e y do r io t go t o wa r w i t h o u t g oo d r e r i s o n s ( t r o m t h e i r

s t a n d p o i n t ) , a n d t h a t t h e y g i v e c l e a r s i g n a l s t h a t a m i l i t a r y a c t i o n

w i l l b e tiikLAn b e f o r r they a c t u a l l y co mm it t r o o p s .

_- -. --

-____ -

W h i t i n g h o l d s t h a t

A l l oE t h e s e w o r k s w i l l I it? lp t o g u i d e t h e d i r e c t i o n o f t h i s

r e s ea rch .

D o cu m e n ta ry M a t e r i a l s

C h i n e s e--

Ren M i n I t i Dao ( P e o p l e - s D a i l y ) i s t h e n a t i o n a l PRC d a i l y n e w s -_ _ _-alWr. I t is of s p e c i a l . v a l u e t o t h i s s t u d y . T h e o f f i c i a l , a u t h o r i t a -

t i v l , L i n r , of t h t s [ : t i i n es e Co m m un is t l e a d e r s h i p i.s p r e s e n t e d t o the world

i.n t h i s p a p e r . L t has a l s o b e e n o n e of t h e c h i e f v o h i c l e s by w hi ch tht?

C t l i n e s e h a v e j.s su t:d a n d w a r n i n g s t o thctir a d v e r s a r i e s i n t imes

o f c r i s i s , a n d i t r e n d e r s o f f i c i a l i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of t h e a c t i v i t i e s o f

t h o s e a d v e r s a r i e s . A d d i t i . o n a l l y , Ren M in Ki Bao performs the

5



t r a d i . t i o n a 1 f u n c t i o n o f n nehspapvr i n r e p o r t i n g t h e n ew s. Tts va lue as

a sourcc of r a b [ a c t , h o w v c r , m u s t b c tempered by t h e r c a l i z a t i o n t h a t

i t is a Communist government paper.

Hong Qi ( R e d F l a g ) i s t h e o f f i c i a l pap er of t h e P eo p le ’ s L i b e r a t i o n

Army ([’LA). I t h as v i r t u e s and v i c e s s i m i l a r t o t h o s e of Ken Hin R i

Bao, a l though i t i s narrower i n scope and not used as e x t e n s i v e l y a s a

v e h i c l e f o r p u b l i c a nn ou nc em en ts o f n a t i o n a l p o l i c y .

_ - -

Bei j ing Rad io , c h i e f l y a s moni to red by th e Porc ign Broadcas t h f o r -

m a t i o n S e r v i c e (VBIS), r e i n f o r c e s t h e p r o c l am a t i on s of Ken X i n R i I3ao

and gives news i t e m s .

_ _ - -

Xin H u a S h e (Neb China News Agency) i s the o f f i c i a l news s e r v i c e o f_ - -t lw P RC. I t is a good s o u r c e f o r t r a c i n g e v e n t s a s r e p o r t e d f ro m t h e

Chinese perspective=.

The PLK p u t s o u t a nebs-and-views magazine i.n E n g l i s h a n d o t h e r

Loreign l anguages : Be i j i ng Kev iev ( fo rmer ly ___ek ing ev iew) . ne i j ing

Review p u b l i s h e s a r t i c l c z s f ro m v a r i o u s C h i n es e o f f i c i a l s ou rc ( s , o r t c r l

Ren Min R i Bao , and aga in p r e s en t s th ose op in i .ons t o tht biorld t h a t t h e

PRC l e a d c r s h i p c o n s i d e r s t o be v e r y i m p o r t a n t .

_ _ - -

In 1981 an i n t e re s t in g book was pub l i sh ed by Kingsway In t e r na t i on a l

Publications in Hong Kong: T h e Sino-Vietnamese War by L i Man Kin. This

work i s on t h e marg ins of being a documentary source . L i Man Kin i s a

former

newspaper. I t i s amaz ing ly f rank in i t s asse ssmen t of t h c P R C - s s h o r t -

comings i n the war. The work i s q u i t e u s e f u l i n a n al y zi n g t h e m i l i t a r y

o pe ra t i on i t s e l f , Tor i t has good b a t t l e maps and a r e a s o n a b l y d e t a i l e d

d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e a c t i o n . I t is a l s o r e p l e t e w i th p i c t u re s .

__

of ‘ra Kung pao, a s em i- of f i c i a l , yro -Be i j i ng How Kong- _ _

T h e t r e a t m e n t t h a t t h e O v er s e as C h i n es e r e c e i v e d a t t h e h a n d s o f

t he V ie tnamese was a f a c to r i n t h e l a t e 1970s c r i s i s . T h e PHC’s Fore ign

6



Language Prrss hiis p u b l i s h e d O n Viet Nam's E x p u l s i o n o f C h i n e s e Resi-

d e n t s , a n d R ? k i i . Al l e y h a s p u b l i s h e d f r om Ch in a Re f u g e e s f r o m Viet N a m i n

China. hot11 oc these w or ks r e co u nt t h e d i f f i c u l t i e s of the CIIinesv i n

Conimunist Viet Nam, b u t m or e i m p o r t a n t t h e y g i v e a n i n d i c a t i o n o f the

r e a s o n s t h a t . Ua i ,j i i ig c o n s id e r e d t he m so i m p o r t a n t i n t h e l a t e 1970s .

- - _ _ -

_.___

Vietnamese

The SKV's o f f i c i a l newspap ers Nhan Dan ( 'The People) and Q u a n Doi_

Nhan Dan (The P e o p 1 e . s M i l i t a r y ) a r e s i m i l a r i n f u n c t i o n t o Ken M i n K i

--ao a n d Hang $1- r e s p e c t i v e l y .

t h e o f f i c i a l v ie ws of the Ha n o i I i a a d e r s h ip . L i k r : w i s e , t h e Vie tnamese

C o m u n i s t s < ) € t e n g i v e t h e i r w a r ni n gs an d s i g n a l s i n t h e s e o r g a n s .

---_ __ __ .

They a r e v a l u a b l e s o u r c e s f o r d i s c e r n i n g

Tap C h i Gong Sai l (< :ommunist P r a c t i c e ) i s H a n o i ' s l e a d i n g . journa l o f

t h e o r y . I t i s vc ry u se l: ii l i n h e l p i n g t h e r e a d e r u n d e r s t a n d l ong range

Vic tn amesc i :overnment po l i cy .

Hano i l lad io i s good s o u r c e or s p e c i € i c news i t ems a s i s t h e Vi,cst

Nom N W S ~ g ~ n c y . h e s e sources were e s p c c i a l l y u s e f u l d i l ri ng t h e a c t u a l

f i g h t i n g of February and March of I979 b e c a u s e ac t h a t t ime t he V i r t -

names< p resc .n tod cons i d t rab le cove rag e o f the w a r .

T he V ie tn a m e s e h av e s u b m i t t e d t h e i r b r i e f a g a i n s t Ch in a i n s e v e r a l

s m a l l wo r k s :

problem, T h c Ch in e s e Ag g r e s s io n : H o w and Why I t F a i l e d , and "The Tru th

abou t Vict tnan i-Cl iin; l Re la t i on s ove r t h e La s t 30 Years." T h e w w o r k s

a s s e r t t h a t t h e PKC h a s n o t ab an do ne d t h e t r i b u t a r y o u t l o o k on f o r e i g n

a f f a i r s t h a t r h a r a c t e r i z e d i m p e ri a l C h i n a . ' They express Vie t Nam's

f r u s t r a t i o n wi.th i t s g i a n t n e i g hb o r .

Cli inese -g g r e s s i o n A g a i n s t V i e t n a m : The Root of t h e

- - _ - _ _ _

7



T h i r d P a r t y

T L C O S g o v e r nm c n t s o u r c e s a r e p a r t i c u l a r l y u s e f u l f o r t h i s s t u d y .

T h e f i r s t i s C h i n a - V i e t n a m H o r d e r T e n s i o n s : A C h r o n o l o g y , 2 2 J u n e 1 9 7 6 -

5 Ma 1 9 8 1. T h i s w o rk s u m m a r i z e s t h e i n c i d e n t s t h a t m a n i f e s t e d t h e- -Y

c r i s i s a n d g i v e s t h e p r i m a r y so i r r c e c i t a t i o n s . T h o s e c o n d s o u r c e is t h e

F o r e i g n B r o a d c a s t I n f o r m a t i o n S e r v i c e (FUIS), r jh ic h m o n i t o r s t h e nehs

o r g a n s of c o u n t r i e s a r o u n d t h e w o r l d .

t e d i o u s s p a d e bark f o r the r e s e a r c h e r .

_.

T h e F B I S r e p o r t s d o m u c h o f tile

G e n e r a l M a t e r i a l s

J o u r n a 1s

S e v e r a l i m p o r t a n t a r t i c l e s d e a l i n g r i t h t h c S i n o - V i e t n a m e s e War

h a v e a p p e a r e d i n E n g l i s h l a n g u a g e j o u r n a l s . T he f i r s t t o come o u t bias

" C h i n a - s ' ? u n i t i v e ' W ar On V i e t n a m : A M i l i t a r y ~ s s e s s m e n t , " lsian

w u g u s t , J e n c k s a s s e r t s t h a t tile m a i n

r e a s o n f o r t h e PRC a t t a c k was t o p r o v e t o t h e V i e t n a m e s e t h a t t h e y c o u l d

n o t c h a l l e n g e B e i j i n g w i t h i m p u n i t y .

o u t l i n e o f t h e m i l i t a r y o p e r a t i o n s an d c o n c l u d e s t h a t i n t h e e n d , " t h e

C h i n e s e a u t h o r i t i e s . . . p r o b a b l y l o s t m ore t h a n t h e y g a i n e d . " For

D a n i e l T r e t i a k t h e r e a r e no " p r o b a b l i e s " a b o u t i t . 1.n h i s a r t i c l e

" C h i n a - s V i e t n a m War a n d i t s C o n s e q ue n c e s , " C h i n a Q u a r t e r l y , D e ce m b er ,

1 9 7 9 , T r e t i a k m a i n t a i n s t h a t t h e P K C ' s g o a l s were l a r g e l y u n r e a l i z e d .

M o re o v e r, T r e t i a k d o e s n o t see t h e s am e p a t t e r n o f s i g n a l l i n g by t h e

Ch i n n s c l t h a t o c c u r r e d p r i o r t o t h e K or ea n War. A t h i r d a r t i c l e i s " T h e

S i n o - V i e t n a m e s e W ar: C a u s e s , C o n d u c t , a n d C o n s e q u e n c e s , " P a r a m e t e r s ,

1 9 7 9 b y LTC H a r l a n J e n c k s .

He g o e s on t o g i v e a g e n e r a l

8



S e p t e m b e r , 1979 by l.'CC Char le s R . Nelson . Nelson places the b a r i n the

c o n L r xt o f t h e S i n o - S o v i e t d i s p u t e . U n l i k e T r r t i a k , he does n o t p e r -

c e i v e the censcquences o f t he war f or China to be p a r t i c u l a r l y d i r e . tie

sees t h e c o n ti n ui n g; d r a i n o n S o v i e t ~ ~ S O U K C ~ Sn i t s e f f o r t t o SuppOrt

the SHV t o b e ;in importent b e n e f i t f o r B e i j i ng .

In a d d i ti.011 t o t h c j o u r n a l s i n d i c a t e d a b o v e , t h e Thc J o u r n a l of-

Asian Stud i c , s

01 og i e 8 .

i s a good s o u r c e f o r a r t i c l e s , book r e v i ew s , a n d c ti ro n---

The wtsckly nebs magazine Far Easte rn Economic Review toge ther w i t h

i t s A s i a Yi arbonk i s a n o u t s t a n d i n g s o u r c e o f m a t e r i a l o n l i as t Asia.

P u b l i s h e d in Hong Kong, i t h as e x c e l l c n t c o v e ~ ? i g e f t h e nebs o f tlic

r e gi o n . Thc a r t i c l e : ; o f l o r c o n s i de r n b l c a n a l y s i s .

_.

Wen r i P a o i s ii p r o - B e i . j i n g n e s s p a p e r published i n Hong Kong. ~t. --

h a s c o n n e c t i o n s w i t h t h e Pl lC and e n jo y s a s e m i - o f f i c i a l s t a t u s . A s such

i t i s :i y,ool.l s o ~ i r c f f o r i i nd e rs t an d in g c u r r e n t P R C p l i c i e s and

p e r c e p t i o n s .

'The Btillgkok Post O ~ € ~ K S ood c o v e r a g e o f e v e n t s i n 111dochina al1d i s

q u i t e u s p f u l i n t r a c i n g H an oi 's o p e r a t i o n s i n Cambodia.

Bonks--

T he Th i. rd I n d o c h i n a C o n f l i c t i s a compendium of a r t i c l e s e d i t e d b y- --

David bi. P . E l l i o t t . I n i t t h e a u t h o r s d i s c u s s t h e n um er ou s p r ob l em s

t h a t bese t t h e H an oi r r q i me a f t e r 1975 and hob t he Vie tnamese h sade r sh ip

r e a c t e d t o t h r i l l . I t i s e s p e c i a l l y g o o d i.n a n a l y z i n g t h e China-Cambodia-

Vier Nam dilen1m:l.

The Ch ina Fac to r : S ino-Amer i can Re l a t i on s and t h e G l o b a l S c e n e ,----

r d i . t e d by K ic ti ar d So lo mo n, c o n s i d e r s C h i n a ' s c h a n g i n g r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h

t t l e c o u n t r i e s of Sou theas t : As i a . 'The cha p t e r s wr i t t e n by Luc i en Pyc and



k r r y H a r d i n g q u e s t i o n w h d t h e r Bei.j i ng and Hanoi bere eve r v c r y c l o s e ,

e v e n d u r i n g the h a l c y o n d ; ~ y s of i n t c r n a t i o n a l Communist c o o p e r a t i o n .

Nguyen Van Can h-s Vi.,tnnm Under Communism h o l d s th a t t h e Communist

r e g i me i n H a no i s e e k s d o m i n a t i o n of a l l S o u t h e a s t As i a. I t i s b r i t t e n

f ro m t h o p e r s p e c t i v e o f a n a n t i - C o m i u n i s t Vi tl tn am es c n a t i o n a l i s t .

Doug l a s P i ke looks a t the S i n o - V i e t n a m e s e c r i s i s i n a n a r t i c l e i n

T h e S i n o - S o v i e t C o n f l i c t : A G l o ba l P e r s p e c t i v e , e d i t e d b y H e r b e r t

E l l i s o n . P ik e a s s e r t s t h a t s ince 1 Y i 5 Hanoi ha s be e n C r y i n g t o b r e a k

t h e t r a d i t i o n a l i n c l u en c c t h a t C hin a h i s t o r i c a l l y h as e x e r t e d ov er t h e

Vi e t na me s e . t l ar i oi , P i ke r na i n t a i , n s , ha s n o t become a c l i e n t o f Moscou

b u t r a t h e r i s u s i n g the S o v i e t s a s a balance a g a i n s t t h e Chi nos c .

_ -

I n Tho Wars i n Vietnam, 1954-1980, Edgar O*Ballance g i v e s a good---

n a r r a t i v e oE t h e everlts o f 1 9 7 5 - 8 0 . H e h o l d s t h a t t h e Chi nes e havt been

s u c c f s s f u l i n d e t e r r i n g V ie tn a me se s u b v e rs i o n i n T h a i l a n d .

I 0



Chapte r 3

A METHODOLOGY

The puIpose o f t h i s c h a p t e r i s t o e x am i ne v a r i o u s m e t h o d ol o g i c a l

approaches t o d e t e r r e n c e a n d c r i s i s b e h a v i o r a l o n g w i t h two m a.jor h i s -

t o r i ca l c i l s i ' s t u d i e s o f t h c P RC's c?n try i n to war . A s y n t h e s i s c > f these

t l i e n r i e s b i l l be iised a s a g u i d e t o t he i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f t h e S ino -

Vi.ctnamest? c r i s i s of 1 9 7 5 - 1 9 7 9 .

A Theory 0 1 Dete r r ence

A1ex;lniJer Gcorgf and Richard Sniokc hove imade an extensive s t u d y , I f

d e t e r r e n c c t h e o r y i n Deter r ence in Amer ican For e ign Pol i cy : 'Theory and

P r a c t i c e . 'L'hey d e l i n e d e t e r r e n c e a s " t h e per suas ion o f on ea s opponen t

t h a t t h e c n s t s a n d /o r r i s k s o f a g iv e n c o u r s e O f a c t i o n he m i g h t t a k r

o u t u e i g h i t s b e n e f i t s . "

l e a d e r s h av e p e rc e i v e d t h e c o n c e p t of d e t e r r e n c e too narrowly and to0

n e g a t i v e l y . T o be more e f f e c t i v e , i t m u s t become part O F a broade r

p o l i c y o f i n f l u c o c e t h a t r e l i e s o n p o s i t i v e i n d u c e mn t as wel l as on

t h r i ? o t s of p u ni s hm e nt . T h i s i n f l u e n c e s h o u l d seek t o r ed u ce t h e l r v p l

--

I

George and Smoke conte nd t h a t , i n t h e p a s t ,

'of c on f l i c t and buy time t o a l l o r . c r i s i s s i t u a t i o n s t o pass. T h e

a u t h o r s c r i t i c i z e a b s t r a c t , p r e s c r i p t i v e mode ls o f d e t e r r e n c e f o r n ot

p o r t r a y i n g Gh at a c t u a l l y h a pp en s i n a c r i s i s s i t u a t i o n , and t h e y a s s e r t

t h a t d e t c r r f n c e t h eo r y n ee d s t o be examined i n t h e l i g h t of h i s t o r i c a l

expe r i en ce . They seek a r e s e a r c h m et h od o lo g y f o r t h i s .

3



What seems r e q u i r e d . . . i s a re se ar ch methodology u h i c h i scapable of d i € l ’ c r e n t i a t n g and i d e n t i f y i n g t h e v a r i a t i o n s i n a n u m b e r

o f r c??l evan t dec i s i on-making va r i ab l e s f rom one s e t O C d e t e r r e n c e

c i r c u m s t a n c e s t o n n o t h c r a nd n s s c s s i n g t tit ir s i g n i l i c a n c e , whi1.c .

r e m a i ni n g “ c u m u la b l e“ a c r o s s m u l t i p l e c a s c s . 4

t i forge and Smoke have con s t ru c t rd an an a l y t i c gu ide fo r do ing an

h i s t o r i c a l c a s e s tu d y o f a c r i s i s s i t u a t i o n . [ t i s d e s i g n e d t o s h e d

l i g h t on t h e i n t e r a c t i o n s o f s t a t e s a s c r i s e s deve lop .

( 1 ) Examine t h e p r i n c i p a l - s v a l u a t i o n of i t s i n t e r e s t s and o b j e c t i v e s .

2 )Examine t h e a d v e r s a r y ’ s v a l u a t i o n o f i t s i n t e r e s t s and o b j e c t i v e s .

( 3 ) D et er mi ne t h e p r i n c i p a l ~ s e r c ep t i on o f t h e t h r e a t t h e a d v e rs a r y

poses .

( 4 )

5 ) T r a c e the f o r m u l a t i o n o f t h e p r i n c i p a l ’ s p e r c e iv e d o P t io l l s t h e

r e q u i r e m e n t s a n d c o n s t r a i n t s t h a t t h o s e o p t i o n s b r i h g .

( 6 ) D e te r mi n e w h e t h e r t h e p r i n c i p a l h a s c o n t i n g e n c y p l a n s i f d e t e r r e n c e

f a i l s .

(7) I d e n t i f y t ho s e s i g n a l s the p r i n c i p a l se n ds t o t h e a d v e r s a r y .

( 8 ) Cons ide r t h e a d v e rs a r y ’s p e r c e p t i o n s o f t h e p r i n c i p a l ’ s d e t e r r e n c e

p o s t u r e ( e . g . c om mi tm en t, c a p a b i l i t y , r e s o l v e ) a nd thc? r i s k s of c on -

t i n u e d d e f i a n c e .

( 9 ) E v a l u a t e the a d v e r s a r y ’ s r e a s s e s s m e n t of‘ i t s a c t i v i t i e s i n r e a c t i on

t o t h e d e t e r r e n c e s i g n a l s .

C o n si d er t h c p o l i c y o p t i o n s the p r i n c i p a l b e l i e v e s a r e op en.

5

The a u t h o r s p o i n t o u t s e v e r a l m i s t a k e s n a t i o n a l l e a d e r s o f t e n make

i n a p p l y i n g d e t e r r e n c e . There i s a t endency t o assume a one-on-one

s c e n a r i o v he n a m u l t i p l i c i t y o f pl a y e r s are a c t u a l l y i n v o l ve d . The

e f f i c a c y o f t h r e a t o v e r mor e p o s i t i v e i n du c em e nt s f r e q u e n t l y i s pre -

sumed: and wi th in t he f ramework o f t h r ea t , mi l i t a ry means a r e those most

p r e f e r r e d .

c a p a b i l i t i e s w i th o ut t a k in g i n t o a cc o un t t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s of e f f e c t i v e

Leaders a r e v on t t o c o n s i de r f i r s t m i l i t a r y a nd mater ia l

1 2



strategy o r home s u p p o r t . P e r h a p s m o s t s r r i o u s o f a l l , t h o u g h , is t he

f:ict tl1:lt l e s d c r s bl10 w i s h t o d c t c r g e n e r a l l y a s s um e t h a t t h e i r s i g n a l ;

a r c I l e i n g rc 'ccivcd a nd u n d s r s t o o d b y t h e a d v c r s n r y , nnd t h a t t h e a dv t r -

s a r y i s m a k in g l o g i c a l d e c i s i o n s t h e r e f r o m .6

D e c i s i o n s u n d e r - S t r c s s

Ole H o 1 s t i has i n v e s t i g a t e d how n a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s ac t u n d e r

t h e s t r e s s o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l c r i s i s . In "The 1910 C a s e , " A nl r r i c , ? n P o l -

i t i c n l S c i e n c e R e v ie w , .J un e, 1 9 6 5 a n d i n C r i s i s , E s c a l a t i o n , a nd War,

Ho ls t i show ; t h a t " r a t i o n a l " d e c i s i o n m a k in g i s n o t the g e n e r a l r u l r

d u r i n g c r i s v s . N a t i o n a l l e a d c r s becom e p r e o c c u p i e d w i t h t h e S h o r t term

O V P K t h e long t e r m , and t h e y b ec om e c o n v i n c e d t l i i l t t h e i r own o p t i o n s arc

c o n s i d e r a b l y n a r r o w e r t h a n t h o s e or t h e i r a d v e r s a r i e s . 'T hi ir c om m u n ic a -

t i o n s an d s i g n a l s bccomc: m o re s t c r e o t y p e d and c o n f u s i n g . T h i s w o r ks

q ; a i n s t d c t 1r r e n cP 3 d c r i s i s re so h i t i on .A c c o r d i n g t o H o l s t i s k i l l f u l c r i s i s m a n a g e m e n t h e a r s s e v e r a l

_ _

_ _~ __

7

h n l l m a r k s . T he p r i n c i p i i l i s aware o f t h e ad VeK SaK y'S f r a m e o f r e f e r e n c e

a n d r c ? a l i z e s t h i , c o n s t r n i n t s u n d e r b h i c h t h e a d v e r s a r y i s o p e r a t i n g .

T he p r i n c i p a l a l w a y s l e a v e s an o p e n i n g t h r o u g h w h i c h t h e a d v e r s a r y c a n

w i t h d r a w . . A car roL a nd s t i c k c o m b i n a t i o n of i n d u c e m e n t s i s u s e d r a t h e r

t t l a n . j u s t o n e or t l ~ c t h e r . A s t h e c r i s i s d e v e l o p s t h e s k i l l f u l m an ag er

m a k c * s e v e r y e f i o r t t o s lo w t h e pact ' of c r i t i c a l e v e n t s . F i n a l l y , L h v

n a t i o n a l 1 e ; i d c r s h i p m ak es c e r t a i n t h a t i t s d e c i s i o n s a r e n o t p r e e m p t e d

O K f i n e s s e d b y o u t s i d e f o r c e s .

8

1 3



H i s t o r i c a l C n s c S t u d 2

I n tho books, China Crosses t h e Yalu: The I l e c i s i on t o E n t e r t he

Korean War and T h e Chinese Ca lcu lus o f De te r r ence : Ind i a and Indoch i na ,

A l l e n Whit ing has ana lyzed t h e Chinese d e c i s io n s t o go t o bar i n Korea

i n 1950 and i n I n d i a i n 1 9 6 2 . Whi t ing poses t he qu es t i on s o f why C h i n a

r c a c t s i n t h e manner tha t i t does and how i t makes i t s d e c i s i o n s . He

c o n c l u d e s t h a t t h e PRC g o e s t o w a r fo r good rea sons , c en te red a round

r j t r a t e g i c s e c u r i t y co n c e rn s , a nd t h a t i t g i v e s r e p en t e d b a r n i n g s

be fort hand.

- - -

ra I s i m i I n r i t i e s ,1951) and 1 9 6 2

S e v e r a t s i m i L a r i t i e s e x i s t b e t b ee n t h f K or ea n a nd I n d i a n c r i s e s .

'The d o m e s t i c s i t u ; i t i o n i n the PKC was unsc? t t l ed . Be i j ing pe rce ived an

i m m e d i a t e t h r e a t a l o n g i t s b o r d e r s . T h e s p e c t e r of e n c i r c l e m e n t presen-

Led i t s e l € t o t h e Ch i ne s e l e a d e r s h i p . T h e c r i s e s d e ve l o pe d o vc r a

p e r i o d o f m on th s, a l l o w i n g I k i j i n g t o e mp lo y i , t s " c a 1 c u I . u ~o f d c t e r -

rence" ; b u t c o n t i n u i n g enemy c h a l l e n g e s t o i t s c r e d i b i l i t y d r eb t h e PKC

i n t o m i l i t a r y a c t i o n s , tor which i t w a s n o t t o t a l l y p r e p a r e d . ina ally,

E e i j i n g h ad t o c on t e nd b i t h ~ o s c o b ' s maneuvers .

9

"Threa t s and ' rhe i r De t e r rence

a s Seen f rom Be i j ing" l0

W hi t in g d e f i n e s t h e " Ch in es e c a l c u l u s o f d e t e r r e n c e " a s t h e "gen-

e r a l s t r a t e g y [ t h a t ] u n d e r l i e s p e r s i s t e n t p a t t e r n s of b e h a v io r ai me d a t

p e r s u a d i n g a p e r c ei v e d op po ne nt t h a t t h e c o s t s of h i s c o n t i n u i n g con-

f l i c t u a l a c t i v i t y b i l l ev en tu a l ly p rove unac cep tab le t o him because of

14



11

t h e C h i n e s c ~ e s p o n s e . " He f u r t h e r c o d i f i e s t h e p r i n c i p l e s of t h r

c a l c u l t i s a c c o r d i n g t o t h e f : o l l o w i n g schemc.

' I ' l i r t n t s a n d 'Thcir D e t e r r e n c e as seen f r o m k i j i n g

1. [Il(. ~ V O K S ( O U K d 0m e s ti .c s i t u a t i o n , t h e morc l i k e l y o u r e x t c r n a l

a ) I\ s u p e r i o r power i n p r o x i m i t y w i l l s e e k t o t a k e a d v an -

h ) 'Ih~oo r more p o w e r s w i l l c om b in e a g a i n s t u s i f t h e y can tern-

c ) e inu st p r e p a r e f o r t h e w o r s t a n d t r y € O K t he b e s t .

a ) To b e c r e d i b l e , move m i l i t a r y f o r c e ; w o r d s do n o t s u f f i c e .

b ) To b e d i p l o m a t i c , l eave t h e e nc my ' f a c e ' and a h a y o u t .c ) 'To he p r u d e n t , l eave y o u r s e l f a n . o p t i o n . '

s i t u a t i o n w i l l W O K S ~ I I .

t a g e o f O U K d o m e s t i c v u l n e r a b i l i t y .

p o r a r i l y o v e r co m e t h e i r oFn c o n C l i c t s of i n t e r e s t .

2 . ' rhe b c s t d n t e r r c n c e i s b e l l i g e r e n c e .

d ) If a t f i r s t yo u d 0 Il .t S llC Ce ed , t r y a l ga i n bll t I l l O K ? SO.

3 . Correct t i m i n g i.s e s s e n t i a l .

a W a r n i n g m u s t be g i v e n < ? a r t y vhen a t h r e a t i s p e r c ( i v e d h u t

n o t y e t i . m i . n e n t .

a n d U S t o c o n r i r m t h e , s i t u a t i o n .

c h o i c e . I.

b ) T h r r h y t hm of s i g n a l s m us t p e r m i t the en em y t o r e s p o n d

Je m u s t c o n t r o l O U K in ov rs a n d n o t r e s p o n d t o the, e n e m y - s)

C h i n e s e S g ia 1 s.

W h i t i n g i s e s p e c i a l l y i n t e r e s t e d i n the s i g n a l s t h a t t h e P K C b1 v e s

a s p a r t o f i t s d r t e r r e n c e c a l c u l u s .

t h r e t b r o a d categories: 1 ) v e r b a l w a r n i n g s , ( 2 ) t r o o p m a n e u v e r s , and

( 3 ) r a p i d a t t a c k s l o l 1 , o ~ e d y a gcneKal d i s e n g a g e m e n t a s t h e f i n a t

w a r n i n g . In t h e v e r b a l w a r n i n g s W h i t i n g t r a c e s a p a t t e r n of e s c a l a t i o n

i n r h e t o r i c a n d a u s e o f k ey p h r a s e s t o i n d i c a t e t h a t a n o t h e r p h a s e l i n e

h a s b e e n c r o s s e d o n t h e r o a d t o a c t u a l m i l i t a r y c o n f l i c t .

he s i g n a l s c a n b e d i v i d e d i n t o

E x a m p l e s o f V e r b a l W a r n i n g s : Korea, 1950

2 2 S e p K( n Min Ri I h o announces t h a t the C hin es ix " v i l l a l w a y s s t a n d on

the s i d e o f t h e K or ean p e o p l e . "

2 5 S e p Ni.r R o n g zh e n , A c t i n g C h i e f of S t a f f o f t h e PLA, i n f o r m s t n d i a n

a m b a s s a d o r K . M . P an i. k ka r t h a t B e i j i n g v i l l n o t " s i t b ac k w i t h f o l d e d

h a n d s an d : .e t t h e h i e r i c a n s come t o t h e b o r d e r . "

1 5



30 S c p Ztiou E n l a i d e c l a r e s : "The C h i n e s e p e o p l e . . . w i l l n o t ' s u p i n e -

l y t o l p r n t e s e e i n g t t i c i r n e i g h b o r s b e i n g s a v a g e l y i n va d ed by the? i m -

p e r i a l i s t s . "

02 Oct Z ho u g i v e s P a n i k k a r o f f i c i a l n o t i f i c a t i o n t h a t , i f t h e U n i t ed

S t a t e s cross( s t h e 3 8 t h p a r a l l e l , t h e PRC w i l l e n t e r t h e war.

1 0 O c t

"Th( C h i n e s e p e o p l e c a n n o t s t a n d by i d l y w i t h r e g a r d t o . . . the

i n v a s i o n o f K o r e a b y t h e U n i te d S t a t e s a n d i t s a c c o m p l i c e s a n d k i t h

r e g a r d t o the d a n g e r o u s t r e n d t o h a r d e x t r n d i n g t h e w a r . "

T he M i n i s t r y o f F o r e i g n A f C a i r s i n B e i j i n g f o r m a l l y a n n o u n ce s :

1 3

E x am p lt ?s o f V e r b a l W a r n i n g s : r nd i. il , 1 9 6 2

(blrt P r o t e s t s )

2 2 J u I " Th e C h i n e s e g o v e r n m e n t c a n b y no m f a n s s i t i d l y b y w h i l e i t s

f r o n t i e r g u a r d s a r e b e i n g e n c i r c l e d an d n n n i h i l a t c d by a g g r e s s o r s . "

2 7 Aug " T h e C h i n e s e s i d e w i l l I l av e t o r e s o r t t o s e l f - d e f e n s e . "

0 5 Si?p " Th e I n d i a n G o v e rn m e n t . . . s h o u l d b r aware t h a t w h o c v e r p l a y s

w i t h Eire w i l l h u r t h i m s r . l f . "

1 3 S c p "He w h o p l a y s w i t h f i r e w i l l e v e n t u a l l y b e c o n s u m e d b y f i r e .

C h i n e s e border d e f e n s e f n r c e s a r e d tlc y b ou nd t o d e f e n d t h e i r t e r r i t o r y . "

2 1 S e p "The s i t u a t i o n i s e x t r e m e l y d a n g e r o u s , a n d t l i c € l a m e s o f w a r m ay

b r e a k o u t t he re . "

2 5 SeP

g r c s s i v c l n d i a n t r o o p s , the C h i n e s e f r o n t i e r g u a r d s c a n n o t b u t t a k e

"In t h r f a c e of i n c r e a s i n g l y f r a n t i c a rm ed a t t a c k s b y t h e ag-

S 1U t' L' me l SIJr c? s f s e 1 -d e f e ns p

.'

03 O c t "~. ~lrnever I n d i a C h i n a i s S L I K ~ t o s t r i k e b ac k . "

11 O c t " S h o u l d the I n d i a n s i d e s t i l . l n o t r e i n i n b e f o r e t he p r e c i p i c e

b u t c o n ti n uc ? t o s p r e a d t h e f l a m e s o f y i l r , t h e I n d i a n G o v c rn n ir n t m u s t

16



bear f i l l 1 responsibility f o r t h e r e s u l t i n g c a s u a l t i e s on bo th s i dc s and

;11 ntl ier consequenccs t h a t may ensue ."

14

T h e s i g ~ l a l s i ve n b y t he C h i n e s e government occur a t f a i r l y r e gu l a r

i n t e r v a l s and conform to ii con scio us rhythm acco rdi ng t o Whit i tlg .

g i v e s the o t h e r s i d e time t o t a k e n o t i c e a n d r e s po n d , an d i t g i v e s t h C

Chinese si.dc t im e t o p r e p a r e f o r t h e n e x t s t e p .

numb< r o t ; ~ I t e r n ; i t i v e s . I f t h e o p p os i n g s i d e r ( o c ts i n a manner t ha t

I k i j i n g p e r ce iv e s t o be l e s s t h r e a t e n i n g , l o ng er i n t e r v a l s b i l l occur

b e t w e e n ~ a r n i n j i s n t i l t h e y t a p e r of f a l t o g e t h e r . W h it in g m a i n t a i n s

t h a t t h i s I~agpcucdd u r i n g tlit 1962 T a i w a n c r i s i s a n d d u r i n g t he American

invo lvement i n Viet Nani, when W as hi ng to n b a s a b l e t o c o n v i nc e B e i j i n g

t h a t the U n i tc d S t a t e s d i d n o t p o s e a t h r e a t t o C hi na 's s e c u r i t y .

t hp o the r hand , i f t h e o p p o s i n g s i d e r em ai ns t h r e a t e n i n g i n I k i j i n g ' s

o p i n i o n , tlien t h ( ? warnings w i l l i n c r e a s e i n t empo and i n t ens i t y .

happened b i t h t he Korean and Ind i an c r i s e s . I n s h o r t , t h e P R C p o s i t s

phase l i n e s i n i t s e s c a l a t i o n oE d e t e r r e n c e t o e x e r t a s much c o n t r o l

o v c r t h e s i t u a t i o n as p o s s i b l e , t o r e a s s e s s c h an gi ng c o n d i t i o n s , t o

prc?pore f o r m i l i t a r y o p e r a t i o n s a s n e c e s s a r y , and t o o v o id a p r e c i p i t a n t

s t u m b l i n g i n t o bar when i t might be p r e v e n t e d .

' r h i s

B e i j i n g d e v e l o p s a

T h i s

When v t' r b nl s i g n a l s d o n o t p r o du c e t h e d e s i r e d r e s u l t , t h e PLA

co lmences mi l i t a ry movement s i n to t he c r i s i s a r e a . The m i l i t a r y a c -

t i o n s , h o w v c r , a r e a l s o phased i n o r d e r t o g iv e on e l a s t d e t e r r e n c e

'rill? f o l l o w i n gche lne r e f l ~ c t s h e b u i ld up t o f u l l - s c a l e war i n

Korea and India.

Korean C r i s i s , 1950

2 5 Sep

come t o th e Yalu.

Ni e Rongzhen t e l l s P a n i k ka r t h e PKC w i l l i n t e r ve n e i f US t r o o p s

17



02 Oct Zhou t e l l s Paniklcar thc PKC w i l l i n t er v e ne i f US f o r c e s c r o s s

thr 3 8t h p a r a l l e l .

26 Oct

02 Nov The PLA a t t a c k s US t r o o p s n e a r t h e Ya lu .

07 Nov The PLA d i s e n g a g e s a l o n g the e n t i r e f r o n t .

2 6 Nov T h e PLA l aunches a m a ss i v e g e n e r a l o f f e n s i v e a l o ng t h e e n t i r e

f r o n t .

T h e PLA a t t a c k s S o u th Ko re an t r o o p s n e a r t h e Y a l u .

I n d i a n C r i s i s , 1 9 6 2

L3 Sep

being consumed b y f i r e .

2o SeP

30 o c t ‘L‘he PLA l aunches a g r i i c r a l a t t a c k and d r i v e s i n t o I n d i a n t e r r i -

The PllC p r o p o s e s t a l k s h i t h I n d i a and c a u t i o n s N c h D e lh i a g a i n s t

The PLA a t t a c k s a t v a r i o us s p o t s o n t he bo rde r and d i sengages .

t o r y .

1 5

20 Nov 13ei j ing announces a c e a s e - f i r e a nd w i th d r a ua l .

T h i s i s a v e ry b r i e f o u t l i n e of Whi t ing ’s theo ry o f Ch inese d e t e r -

rence and of h i s two h i s t o r i c a l c a s e s t u d i e s an a l yz i n g t h a t t h eo r y.

Methodology Tor ‘ T h i s T h e &

A l l of the a u t ho r s c i t e d i n t h i s chapter make use of t h e h i s t o r i c a l

case s t ud y t o e x p l a i n t h e development of c r i s e s and t he manner in which

t h e p a r t i e s conce rned t r y t o manage t h e s e c r i s e s . By u s e of a

sys tema t i c me thodo logy i n doing t h i s , t h ey h op e t o e l u c i d a t e b o t h the

manner in w h i c h n a t i o n s i n t e r a c t andt h e

e f f i c a c y o f t h e i r a c t i o n s . T h e

u l t i m at e p r a c t i c a l e f f e c t of t h i s i s i n t h e p e r c ep t i o n of g e n e r a l i t i e s

and c o n s i s t a n c i e s t h a t woul d l ea d t o b e t t e r c r i s i s managemen t. A t il

minimum i t s h o u l d y i e l d a c l e a r e r u n de r st a nd i ng o f t h e h i s t o r i c a l

reasons and methods for il g i ve n n a t i o n - s a c t i o n s d u r i n g a t i m e of

i n t e n s e i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o n f r o n t a t i o n .

18



TI)( i n n i n purpose ot' t h i s paper is t o a n a l y z e t h e d e v o l o p i n g c r i s i s

betwecri China anti V i e t R a i n from 1 9 7 5 t o 1 9 7 9 as a n h i s t o r i c a l c as e

s t u d y . l:i r s t , s e v e r a l i m p o r t a nt c r i s i s p o i n t s i n Si no -V ie tn ai ii rs r r e l a -

t i o n s d u r i n g t h a t p e ri o d a r e i d e n t i f i e d . S ec on d, t h e study examines

U e i .j i n gs ' s h a n d l i n g o f t h e s e c r i s e s i n terms o r i t s perception o f i t s

i n t e r e s t s and o b j e c t i v e s , a n d the t h r e a t t h a t i t p e r c e i v e s Vie t N a m

poses t o L liose i n t r r r s t s a nd o b j e c t i v e s . I c also c o n s i d e r s C h i n a ' s

s r n s i t i v i t y t o V ie t Nani's i n t e r e s t s . 'T hi rd , t h e p a pe r looks a t t h e

giiriiur of s i g n a l s i , s s u e d b y t h o C h i n r sc a nd t h e i r r e c e p t i o n b y t he V i e t -

nilmese. 'I'tlr? n a t i ir c , i n t e n s i t y , i r u t h o r i t y , an d t i m in g o f t h e s i g n a l s aris

c o n s i d e r e d . An index of i n d i c a t o r s i s drawn up t o t r a c e t h e Chines11

r(?sponses b i t h i l l t h c s e v a r i a b l e s . F o u r t h , t h e s t u d y determines the

r i l a t i v e c f f i c a c y of U c i j i ii g ' s a c t i o n s , e x am i ni n g them i n l i g h t of

I l o l s t i ' s h y p o t h e s i ~ r e g a r d i n g t l w p r o p e r p e c e p t i o n s o r t i m e , ot '

a l L e r n a t i v c s , i i i i t l 0 1 coiiiinunication. V i f t l i , the conccpt of C h i n r s e

d t , t c r r e n c c i s examined t o de te rmine how the s t r a t e g y of l i m i t e d , p u n i -

t i v e w a r i s u s e d .

19



FXFERRENCES CITED

1

A l e x a n d e r

F o r e i g n P o l i c y :

-

G e o rg P a n d R i c h a r d S m o ke , D e t e r r e n c e i n A m e r ic a n

T h e o r y a n d P r a c t i c e (New Y o rk : C o l u m c a U P , 1 9 7 4 ) ,--z

3

4

5

6

7

G e o r g e a n d S m o k e , p . 5 9 0 .

G e o r g e a n d S m o k e , p p . 6 6 - 6 7 .

G e o r g e a n d S m o k e , p . 9 4 .

G e o r g e a n d S m o k e , p p . 9 9 - 1 0 3 .

G e o r g e a n d S m o k e , p p . 7 2 - 8 2 .

Ole R . H o l s t i , C r i s i s , E s c a l a t i o n , War ( M o n t r e a l : Y c G i ll - Q u ee n ’ sUP, 1 9 7 2 ) , p p . 7 - 2 5 ; a i i 8 ~ t ~ ” T t i eYT47Zisc,” A m e r ic an P o l i t i c a l

S c i e n c e K e v i e k , 5 9 : 2 :3 6 5 - 6 6 , J u n e , 1 9 6 5 .7olsc i , C r i s i s , p p . 2 2 2 - 2 3 .

9

A l l e n S. W h i t i n g , C h i n a C r o s s e s t h e Y a l u : the D e c i s i o n t o E n t e rt h e K o r e a n W a r ( S t a n f o r d : S t a n ~ , ~ 6 0 ) , a s s i m ; a n d W h i t z g -

C h i n e s e C a l c u l u s of D e t e r r e n c e : I n d i a a n d t n d o c h i n a ( A n n A r b o r :

--U n i v e r s i t y of M i c K i g a n P r e s s , 1 9 7 5 ) , a S m ;10

W h i t i n g , C a l c u l u s , p. 2 0 2 .

W h i t i n g , C a l c u l u s , p . 2 0 1 .11

12-

W h i t i n g , C a l c u l u s , p p . 202-03.1 3

W h i t i n g , E, . 9 3 .

W h i t i n g , C a l c u l u s , p. 2 1 0 .

W h i t i n g , a l u , ‘pp. 9 3 a n d 1 1 7 ; a nd C a l c u l u s , p. 2 1 4 .

14

1 5

20



C h a p t e r 4

TKACING THE TROUBLES

Background

X ' Sr n di t i o n o f T r o u b l e s----- ___

C h i n a and V i i t Nan1 have lied a l o ng h i s t o r y O E t r o u b l ed r e i a t i l , n s ,

V ; e tn a mr s c c i v i l i z a t i o n grew up i n t h e Red R i v e r d e l t a i n t he l a t t e r

h-1I . f o f tile c i r s t m i l l cnn ium BC, c t l i l t . an expanl i ing

e x e r t e d pr( s sure on i t From th tx n o r t h .

tlie Ked KivPr c l ~ l t ~nd t h e c a r l y V i et na me s e i n t o the: lian dynas t ) r ' s

d ,nmins. 'The Chinese c a l l e d t h e i r new a c q u i s i t i o n An N a m ( t h e Peaceful

S a l l l t h ) , and i t r o m nin ed t h c s o u th e r n m o s t p r o v in c e o f t h e C h i n e s e e m p i r e

u n t i l I\D 0 9 9 . i n r a t h e r t y p i c a l c o l o n i a l f a s h i o n , t h e Ch i ne s e a d mi n is -

t r a t o r s i r i V i e t : %am r e g a r d e d ttie i n d i ge n o us i n h a b i t a n t s w i t h c o n d c s c e n -

s i o n ; and the V ie tn am es e, f o r t h e i r p a r t , f r e q u c n t l y t r i e d t o a s s e r t

t h e i r indepcmdi nco, o f t e n r i s i n g u p i n r e b e l l i o n . N e v e r t h e l e s s , t h c

b r i l l i a n c e o f C h in e se c u l t u r e and c i v i l i z a t i o n w a s n o t l o s t on t h e

Vie tn a m e s e , w l 1 0 ad opt ed much of i t [ o r t h e i r own. T h i s , t o o , l e d t o a

n o t u n t yp i ( :i ~ l c o l o n i a l phenomenon:

t o c a r d ttie c o l o n i z e r s . Cn t h e i r r o l e as l i t t l e b r o t h e r , t h e Vie tnamese

b o t h a dn li re d a nd d e s p i s e d t h e i r b i g b r o t h e r , t h e C h i ne s e . T h i s d u a l i t y

or p a s s i o n s was L o c on ti .n ue t h r o ug h o u t t h e h i s t o r y o f S in o - Vie tn a m e s e

K $ 1 L o n s .

r l l l p i r e

I n 111 HC Han Wudi incorpora te"

1

a m bi v al e nt f e e l i n g s o f t h e c o l on i z e d

2



Vict Nan gained i t s independence i n 9 39 , a f t e r t h e c o l l a p s e o l t h e

Tang dynasty i n China ; a n d , s h o r t l y a l t e r tltc e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f t h e S ong

d y n a s t y i n 9 6 0 , i t became p a r t o f t h e C h i n e s ( , t r i b u t a r y s y s t em , w hi ch

a l l o k e d C h i n a’ s i n f l u e n c e t o c o n t i n u e t h r ou g h a m or e i n d i r e c t n e t h o d .

A t t h e same t i m e , V i e t N a m began i t s own i m p c r i a l i s t d r i v e i n t o I n do -

c h i n a , t h e r e b y d e v e l o p i n g a n o t h e r o n go i ng theme i n S ino -Vie tnamese r e l a -

t i o n s . As the Vietnamese pushed south a n d west, t h e C h i n e s e h o u l d o f t e n

a l l y t he ms el ve s w i th t h e p e op le s a s t r i d e Viet Nam < s a d va n ce , v i z . t h e

Chams and the Klinters, t o b l o c k Viet Nam’s expansionism . Betheen 1075

and 1079, the S o n g C l i i n e s c a s s i s t e d t h e Chams and K h m e r s i n d e f e a t i n g

th e V ie tnamese and thu s pos tponed t h e i r southhard movement.

t i t t le,

Viet Nam had t o fa ce two subs equen t major i n c u r s i o n s f rom t h e n o r t h .

The Mongols ravaged much of t h e Ked Kiver d e l t a in t h e midd le of t h e

t h i r t e e n t h c e n t u r y , t a k i n g H ano i in 12 57. C l i m a te , t e r r a i n , and f i e r c e

V i et n am e se r e s i s t a n c e , h o we v er , c a u se d them t o h i th d ra w b i t h o u t a b -

s o r b i n g Vie t Nan in t o the Yuan dynasty. When t h e Ming d y n a s t y a s s e r t e d

i t s e l f i n f o r c i g n v e nt u re s , V i e t N a m was once tnorf col oni zed . Th<,

p e r i o d o f d i r e c t C h in e s e d o m in a t io n was sh or t , f rom 1409 t o 1428 ; b u t i t

r e a f f i r m e d t o t h e Vietnameae t ha t China would a lha ys see k t o dominate

t h e m % h en t h e o p p o r t u n i t y p r e s e n t e d i t s e l l .

For a s h o r t

t h e Song oc c up i ed c o n s i d e r a b l e p a r t s o r Vir tnameS< . t e r r i to ry .

3

D u r i n g t h e L a t t e r p a r t o f t h e s i x t e e n t h c e n t u r y , b o th C h in a an d

Vie t ?lam were e x pe r ie n ci n g c o n s i d er a b l e d i f f i c u l t i e s .

d y n a s t y was i n t e r m i n a l d e c l i n e , an d i n Virt Nam t h o h o s t i l e c l a n s - - t h e

T r i n h i n t h e n o r t h a n d t h e Nguyen i n t h e s o u t h -- h ad e f f e c t i v e l y d i v i d e d

t h e co un tr y. The Ming f e l l in 1644 and w a s p r e s e n t l y r e p l a c e d by t h e

Q in g d y n a s t y of the Manchus.

p a t r o n ag e o f t h e n ew ly e s t a b l i s h e d Qi ng d y n a s t y , w h i l e i n t h e S ou t h t h e

In China the Ming

I n Han oi t h e T r i n h c l a n e a g e r l y s o u gh t t h e

2 2



Nguyen domairis became a Itavcn For many Ming l oy a l i s t r e f ug ee s . T h e

Ngk~yi nweri. not i i s c n t h u s i a s t i c a b o ut a Cllincse c o n n e c t i o n a s the were

t h v ' I r i n h , b i i t t h e y used t h i Chinese immigran t s t o h e l p them i n t h e i r

d~ ive t o conquer Canihodio.

Chinese a rmies once aga in i nvaded Viet Nam in 1788. They sought to

t a k e a d v a n t a 4 e o t d i su n io n an d r e b i l l i o n b i t h i n Viet N a m i n o rd e r t o

r e a s s e r t a lar ge r incasur t? of Chinese in f lu enc e . They capt ured l tanoi a n d

occuppied t l i u c i t y l o r tho weeks , but t h e y were s o o n de fe at ed by a

V i C A t n m e s e army 311d withdrew from the c o u n t r y .

In 1802 t h e Nguyen here a b l e t o c o nc lu d e a s u c c e s s f u l b a r a g a i n s t

t h t ' l ' r i nh and u n i t e a l l of V i r t Nam; I~ow(?vcr, n d o i n g s o , t h e y had

e n l i s t e d t h e ? i d o f il s m n l l group oC F r en c h f r e e b o o t e r s , k hi cl i b a s t o

c o n t r i b u t e L O F r a n c e - s g e t t i n g i t s f o o t i n t h e d o o r . T h e French began

a h s o r b i n g lndoch ina b i t by b i t , s t a r t i n g w i t h tho South, i n t he midd l r

0 1 t h e n i n e l n e n t l i c1:ntury. As t h e y approached China ' s bord e r s i n t h e

4

lt180s, Hei j i i i g become alar med and began t o oppose t h e i r e f f o r t s . T h i s

culminat (?d i n the Sino-French ba r of 1883-85. (Gr oui ng Fren ch hegemony

i l l Indochina d i d no t c o n s t i t u t e t h e o n ly r e a so n f o r t h i s wa r, b u t i t bas

one of t h e major c o n t r i b u t i n g f a c t o r s . )

5

~ o o p e r a ton-aga ins t -C o l o n i a l ism

During thc f i r s t h a l f of t h e t w e n t i e t h c e n t u r y , t h e re b a s a l a r g e

mansure o f common i n t e r e s t betbeen t h e n a t i o n a l i s t i c Chinese a n d Vie t -

n:imese i n t hwar t i ng t h e encroachments o f t h e co lo n i a l powers and i n

d , ? ve l o pi n g m o de r n, i n d e p e nd e n t n a t i o n a l s t a t e s .

( N a t i o n a l i s t P a r t y ) i n China suppor t ed t h e n a t i o n a l i s t movement i n Viet

Naln, vs pe ci a l ly t he V i e t N n m Quoc Dan Dang (Vi et Nam N at io n a l is t P a r ty ) ,

T h e Guomindang ( G M D )

23



b h i c h was p a t t e r n a f t e r the Chinese G M D . Likewise , t h c Chines( Commu-

n i s t P a r t y ( C C P ) l e n t s u pp o rt t o i t s c o u n t e r p a r t , the Indochina Comnlu-

i i i s t P a r t y (ICP). Even wi th in the f ramebork o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l i s t c o-

o p e r a t i o n , h ow ev er , t e n s i o n s a r o s e . T he G M D j a i l e d Ho Chi Minh r e -

pea ted ly ; and , when G M D t r o o p s e n t e r e d n o r t h e r n V i e r N a m i n 1 945 t o

a c c e p t t h e J a pa n es e s u r r e n d e r a t t h e e nd of World War 11, they rampaged

t h r o u gh t h e c o u n t r y s i d e a nd showed d e f i n i t e s i g n s of w an ti n g t o s e t up

more than a temporary occ upat io n . T h i s once more s t i r r e d V ie tnamese

b i t t e r ne ss toward the Ch inese and seemed t o c o nf i r m Cl li na ’s i m p e r i a l i s t

d e s i r e t o dominate V ie t X a m .

6

I n 1 9 4 6 both China and Viet N a m became c?ngulfed i n i n t e r n a l wars.

China’s ended i n 1949 wi th a Canmunist v i c t or y . The Chines e Ccmmunists

then went on t o g i ve s i g n i f i c a n t a i d t o th e Communis t- l ed Viet Minh i n

Indoch ina . This h e l p e d t h e Viet Hinh t o p r e v a i l a g o i n s t t h e F r en ch i n

1954.

7

T h e Geneva Convention

A c o n v e n t i o n was c a l l e d a t G eneva i n 1954 t o d e a l w i t h t h e problems

of Korea and Ind ochin a . I n a t t e n d a n c e a t t h e I n d o ch i na s e s s i o n s were

r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s f ro m t h e U n it e d S t a t e s , t h e S o v i e t U nion , t h e Peop le ’ s

R e pu b l ic of C h i n a, t h e S t a t e o f Viet Nan1 (non-Cormnunist),

F rance , B r i t a i n , Cambodia, and Laos. The maneuvers and machinations

t h a t t oo k pl a ce a t the Geneva Conv ent ion have l o n g been the s u b j e c t of

c o n t r o v e r s y and r e c r i m i n a t i o n . Viet Nam was di vi de d between t h e Com-

munist North and the non-Communist Sou th. Af te r ye a r s o f f i gh t i ng , t h e

Communists got only ha l f of t h e l o a f . S i g n i f i c a n t l y , t h e PRC s u p p o r t e d

t h e p a r t i t i o n , a nd t h e r e i s e v i d e n c e t h a t i t p r e s s u r e d t h e Vie t Minh

i n t o a c c e pt i n g i t .

t h e Vie t Minh,

8

Could t h e Vietnamese Communists have ga ined contro l

24



ovi r t h e f ih ol (? c o i l n t r y b y w a l k i n g o u t o f t he n e g o t i a t i o n s a nd b ac k o n t o

t1.v b a t t l c ~ i e l d ? Was U v i j i n g d e l i b e r a t e l y t r y i n g t o i n s u r c t h a t n n

i r d c , p c n d e n t Viet Nam r e m a i n e d b e a k a n d d i . v i d e d ? D o u g l a s P i kt ? b e 1 i w e s

t h a t t h e C m m u n i s t f o r c e s i n Viet Nam were l a r g e l y e x h a u s t e d i n 1 95 4 and

t h a t t h e V ie t Minh w r e 8 s e a g e r f o r p e a c e a s a n y b o d y e l s e . ' T h e r e f o r c ,

t h o deal m a y n o t h a v e b e e n a s b ad f o r t h em a s t h e y w e re t o a s s e r t l a t e r

w l i c o t h e y n l a i n L a i . n e d t h a t t h e y ha d be en f i n e s s e d o u t of h a l l the c o u n -

9

t r y . On t h e o t l i ( r h a n d , t h e I'KC g a v e some i n d i c a t i o n s C ha t a " n e u -

t r ; i li z c d " 1 n d o c t i i n a w a s n o t a l t o g e t h e r u n a t t r a c t i v t > f ro m t h e i r p o i n t o r

v i a w .10

Tlit? V i t t n an i rs i? C o m m u n i s t s g e n e r a l l y t r i . e d t o w a l k the l i n r between

t h e i r h r e t h r ' c n i n M o s c o w a n d I l e i j i n g , a n d from 1 9 5 0 t h r o ug h c a r l y 1 3 7 3

t h e y were i n d e e d a b l e t o t a c k r a t h e r s u c c e s s f u l l y b e t w ee n t h e C h i n e s r

a nd t h e S o v i e t s . T t i s p o s s i b l e t o d i s c e r n s i x p h a s e s o f V i e tn a m e s e

C om miinisL m a n eu v ts rs d u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d .

F r o m 1'350 t o 1 9 5 6 , t h e y were o n good terms w i t h b o t h of t h e Com-

n n i n i s t g i a n t s . T he S i n o - S o v i e t r i f t h a d n o t y e t o p e n e d , a n d these here

t h e h a l c y o n d a y s of i n t c r n a t i u n a l Com munis t c o o p e r a t i o n and s o l i d a r i t y .

E l e v e r t h e l e s s , H o ' s r a g i m e w a s r a t h e r c l o s e r t o t h e C h i n e se t h a n t o thc

S o v i e t s a t t h i s time. F ro m 1 9 50 t o 1 9 5 4 , t h e PRC was p r o v i d i n g a

s a n c t u a r y f o r V i e t M inh t r o o p s a n d was g i v i n g c o n s i d e r a b l e a i d a nd

; ~ s s i s t n n c e O t h e m i.n the w a r a g a i n s t t h r F r e n c h . T h e V i e t n a m e s e Com-

m u n i s t s a l s o l o o k e d t o t h e C h i n e s e r e v o l u t i o n a r y e x p e r i e n c e as a m o d e l

f o r t h r Vietnamcse r e v o l u t i o n .

2 5



Betbeen 1 9 5 7 and 1 9 6 0 , t he S l edg l i ng Ikmocra t i c Kepub1 i . c or Vie t

Nam ( D K V ) moved c l o s e r t o t h e S o v i e t s . H an oi b eg an t o d e v e l o p a n

i n k l i n g of d i s t r u s t o ve r the prese nce i n Nor th Viet Nnm of t h o s c l a r g c

numbers of Chinese adv i so r s , hho had p roved s o v a l u a b l e d u r i n g t h e war

b u t who now di d no t seem e s p e c i a l l y e a g e r t o d e p a r t . The N or th Vie t -

nameso were a l s o a n x io u s t o b eg in i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n , and i n t h i s t h e

S o v i e t m od el a p p e a r e d mo re a p p r o p r i a t e t h a n the Chinest?. Hanoi wanted

the a dv an ce d a i d t h a t t h e S o v i e t s , n o t t h e Chinese , cou ld p rov ide .

Dur ing t h i s p e r i o d t h e r e were f re qu e nt v i s i t s of Sovie t and Chinese

d i gn i . t a r i e s back and f o r t h be tween Hoscoh and Hanoi.

d i s a s t r o u s Three Red Banners campaign from 1958 to 1 9 6 0 l a r g e ly d i s -

a b u s e d t h e Vietnanwsc of t h c e f f i c a c y of t h e Chinese model .

F i n a l l y , t h e P R C ' s

T h e S i n o - S o v i e t s p l i t came into t he open in 1960. A t t I l c Same

t ime, Hanoi b a s c o m e n c i n g o p e r a t i o n s a imed a t s u b j u g a t i n g S ou t h V i c t

Nnm and f ea red t h a t h o s t i l i t y between t he USSR a n d t h e PKC might d i s -

t r a c t them from t h e f r a t e r n a l s o c i a l i s t s u p p or t t h a t t h e Nor th V i e t -

n am ese h od b ee n a n t i c i p a t i n g . T h e r e f o r e , from 1960 t o 1963, Hanoi t r i e d

t o p l a y a m e d i a t i ng r o l e b r t w e n ?110scob a nd B e i j i n g .

r ecoup some of i t s w a n i n g s t a t u r e w i t h th e Nor th Vie tnamese by pro mises

o f i n c r e a s e d s u p p o r t .

T h e PKC t r i e d t o

Between 1963 and 1965 , t he D R V swung toward the PRC i n t h e S i n o -

S o v i e t d i s p u t e . H an oi s u s p e c t e d t h a t R hr us hc he v * s p o l i c y of p e a c e f u l

coex i s t encc and agreement w i t h t hc Uni t ed S t a t e s on a n u c l e a r t e s t ban

s i g n a l l e d a s l i d e back i n Sov ie t sup por t f o r bor ld -b ide Connnun ist

gency movemenes. Host of t h e D R V l e a d e r s h i p p r e f e r r e d 1 3 ei j in g .s m o re

b e l l i c o s e r h e t o r i c ; and t he i d e o l o g i c a l p u r i s t s i n H an oi , e . g . Le Duan,

held sway. T h e D R V o f t e n . j o i n e d r a n k s w i t h t h e PRC i n c r i t i c i z i n g

S o v i e t r e v i s i o n i s m ; y e t Hanoi re fu se d t o denounce Moscow.

i n s u r -

2 6



[ n 1964 t h e N o r t h Vietnamese, h a v i n g e n jo y e d some s u c c e s s ~ ~ si t h

t I i t s g u c r r i I l a war i.n t h e S o u t h , d e c i d ed t o p u sh Tor a q u ic k v i c t o r y b y a

1;lI-j;e (~Sc;113ti011Or

I:he war e f f o r t . The P R C t e n d e dl l O t

t o s u p po r t t h i s ,

u r g i n g t h e Vie i: na me st Communi st s t o c on t i nu e t o app1 .y t h e M a o i s t s t r a t -

e:<y o f p r o t r a c t e d w a r fa r e . A t tlie same t ime, KhKUShchev h a d been ous t t .d

i n t I i C S ~ v i t ~ tn ion, a n d t h e new K r em li n l e a d e r s h i p h ad d e c i d e d t o t a k e

a more a g g r e s s i v v coursc i n b a c k i n g ''wars o f n a t i o n a l l i b e r a t i o n . "

W os co k, k a s now marimivering t o s u p p o r t Ha noi b o t h i d e o l o g i c a l l y and

m n t c r i a l l y , w h i l c n e i j i n g w a s s i n g i n g ii r a t h e r d i f f e r e n t i d e ol o g ic a t

t ii na ;and d i d no t ha ve t h e ma t e r i a l means t o b ec k H a n o i ' s a m b i t i o n s . A s

a r e s u l t t h i ? D R V nlovrd bac k tow ard t h e USSR i n 1964 and 1 9 6 5 .

' r h l? I : ni t ed S t i l t c s b e g a n m a s s i v e a i d t o S a i g o n i n 1965, and S o u t h

V ie t na m es e r e s i s t a n c e t o a Communi st t a ke ove r s t i f f e n e d . Ha no i hed

f a i l e d t o x h i e v e i t s q u i c k v i c t o r y a nd nob camc t o a c c e p t t h a t the war

~ ~ 1 ~ 1 1 dc l o n g a n d b i t t e r . W i t h t h i s p r o s p e c t , t h e Nor t h V i e t na me s c

r p c o g n i z e d t h a t t h e y would n e e d a l l tht h e l p t h e y c ou l d ge t a nd ha d no

C l ? S i . K t ? tO a l i e n a t l , e i t h e r o f t h e i r p e t r o n s . T h e r e f o r e , t he pt riod o f

1965-73 was one o f o f f i c i a l N ort h V ie tn am es e n e u t r a l i t y i n t h e S i n o -

S o v i e t r i v a l r y . N e v c rt h e le s u , t h e D K V e d g e d g r a d u a l l y c l o s e r t o the

IJSSR. T h e r e were s e v e r a l r e a s o n s f o r t h i s . A s t h e ~ i i ~n t e n s i f i e d ,

c h e N o r th V i e tn n m es e b ec ame i n c r e a s i n g l y d e p e n d e n t o n s o p h i s t i c a t e d

: j o v ie t l n i l i t a r y e q u ip m en t , e s p e c i o l l y tlie a n t i a i r c r a f t s y st em s t h a t

,.Icfendc,d t h e homeland aga i .ns t Amer ican bombers . The Nor t h V i e t na me s e

Army ( N V A ) , h i ? a d e d by Vo Nguyen Giap, became more i n f l u e n t i a l i n U R V

p o l i t i c s . 'The o f f i c e r s o f t h e N V A p r e f e r r e d S o v i e t h a rd w ar e t o t h e ,

M a o i s t p h i i o s o p h y of p r o t r a c t e d bar , a nd G i a p was t h e leadrr o f t h t ? most

p r o - S o v i e t an d a n t i - C h i n e s e f a c t i o n i n H an oi . I n t e r n a l C h i n e s e

27



po I. t i c s , e sp e c i a 1 l y the Great P r o l e t a r i a n Cu I. t u r a l R e v o l u t i o n, c a us e d

s e v e r e s t r a i n s i.n S in o -V ie tn am es e r e l a t i o n s . V ie tn a me se o f f i c i a l s i n

t h e PRC here at ta ck ed and beat en by Red Guards , and Sovie t a rms s h i p -

m en ts t r a v e r s i n g t h e PRC by r a i l on t h c i r way t o t h e D R V here i n t e r -

d i c t e d a n d lo o t e d . T h e n o ti o n of th e People’:: War, i . e . p r o t r a c t e d

war fa r e based o n t h e Maoist model, has he ra ld ed by Lin Biao and became

the s t r a t e g i c m i l i t a r y or th o do x y d u r i n g the C u l t u r a l . R e v o l u t io n . I n

s p i t e o f t h e b e l l i c o s e b l u s t e r o f i t s r h e t o r i c , L i n U i a o - s f o r m u l a t i o n

o f People’s War was a m a n i f e s t a t i o n o f t h e PRC’e t u r n i .nbard. C h i n c s e

Cornt inism was re de f i ni ng i t s e l f , and t h i s bas a t ime of c o n s i d e r a b l e

i n t r o v e r s i o n f o r t h e PRC. Zhou Enlai, who h e l d the r e i n s of f o r e i g n

p o l i c y a s best h e cou ld , wan t ed n o E o r ei g n v e n t u r e s d u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d

O f China’ s s e l f - i nd uc ed we:ikncss. F i na l l y , H ;lnoi became pa r t i c u l a r l y

provoked w i t h Beij i n g o v e r t h e I’RC - s r apprdchement w i t h the Uni t ed

S t a t e s i n 1 9 7 1 - 7 2 . Th is was bal anc ed, hohCver, by t h e I )KV’s d i s p l e a s u r e

w i t h t h e development of t h e US-USSR detentr.. Yct Hano i had t o be a r a l l

o f t h i s i n r e l a t i v e s i l c ? n c e , for t h e r e b a s no p l a c e e l s t ? t o g o .

11

12

Era- f - the P a r i s Peace Accords

I j e i j i n g was c r i t i c a l . of Hanoi xhen the l a t t e r a gr ee d t o e n t e r i n t o

peace t a l k s w i t h t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s i n A p r i l 1968, hh i l e Noscow su ppo r t ed

t h e U R V i n t h i s maneuver. The C h i n e s e were in t h e l a s t g as ps of t h e

i d e o l o g i c a l r a d i c a l i s m of the C u l t u r a l R e v o l u t i o n a t t h i s time and saw

t h e t a l k s a s a b e t r a y a l o f t h e People‘s War. T h e y e v e n t h r e a t e n e d t h e

North Vie tnamese w i t h a cut o f f o f a i d . H c i . j i n g a l s o s u s p e c t e d a S o v i e t

p l o y t o co n t ro l Hanoi more c l os e l y . However , i n 1 9 6 9 t h e PRC d i d an

a b o u t f a c e a nd b eg a n t o s u p p o r t t h e P a r i s n e g o t i a t i o n s . Not o n l y d i d

28





15

a s s i s t a n c e b u t no m i l i t a r y a i d . S t e p h e n D. Y ou ng , who s e r v ~ d i t h t h e

S t a t e D e p ar t m e n t i n V i c t N a m a n d w 8 s c l o s e t o A m b a s s a d or L ~ ~ s w o r t t l

H u n k e r , has r e p o r t e d t h a t U ( ? i j i n g e v o n o E € e r a d a i d t o Saigon i n t h e

w a ni ng d a y s o f t h e w a r .

A f t e r t h e P a r i s P c a s e A g r ee m en ts were s i g n e d i n 1973, P e k i n g s e n tT h i e u a l e t t e r t h r o u g h t h e g oo d o f t i c e s o f S i n g a p o r e - s Lee Kwan Y e w .

F e a r i u l o r th i? c o n s e q u e n c e s , T h i e u d i d n o t r e p l y . T he n w ee ks b e f o r et h e c o l l a p s e o f S a i g o n i n 1 9 7 5 , P e k i n g a g a i n a p p r o a c he d T h i e u . ‘ C h i s

time t h e C h i n e s e u s e d his b r o t h e r as a c o n t a c t a n d o f f e r e d t o s u p p o r tS o u t h V i e tn a m a g a i n s t H a n oi i f ‘ C h i e u w o u l d o p e n a €ew d o o r s t o p ow er

f o r t h e NLF [ N a t i o n a l L i b e r a t i o n F r o n t ] . R e e l i n g fr om t h e c o l l a p s e of

tiis armies, T h i c u ha d n o c o u r a g e f o r s u c h a d r a m a t i c g a m b l e . 1 6

‘I‘hc H a n o i l e a d e r s h i p c o n s i d e r e d t h a t the I ) R V - s i n t e r e s t s w o u ld be

s c r v e d b e s t by t a k i n g S o u t h Viet Nan1 a t the f i r s t p o s s i b l e o p p o r t u n i t y .

T he N o r t h V ie tn a m es e p e r c e i v e d I l e i j i n g ’ s € o r e i g n p o l i c y as n m o d e r n

v e r s i .o n o f t r a d i t i o n a l Hall c h a i i v i . n i s m , w i t h Vie t Nam t o p l a y t h e r o l e Of

t r i b u t a r y s t a t e t o t h e c o u r t a t B e i j i n g . T h o se who h ad be en a n g e r e d b y

C h i n a ’s w i l l i n g n e s s t o a c c e p t a d i v i d e d Viet Nan1 a t G e n e v a now s a w

h i s t o r y r e p e a t i n g i t s e l € . M any i n H a n o i r e a s o n e d t h a t the PRC s i m p l y

w a n te d t o k e e p V i e t Nam i n a c o n s t a n t l y w ea k e n e d s t a t e . T h i s i s w h y t he

C h i n e s e h ad a l w a y s u r g e d p r o t r a c t e d lriar a nd why t h e y ha d o r i g i n a l l y

o p p o s e d t h e P a r i s t a l k s . A s long a s t h e w ar c o n t i n u e d , Vie t Nam would

remain d i v i d e d , a nd t h e U n i te d S t a t e s a nd the S o v i e t U n i o n w o u l d b e a t

o d ds . T h u s , t h e PRC c o u l d o c c u p y t h e h i l l t o p w h i l e s e v e r a l t i g e r s

f o u g h t b e l o w . Once t h e n e g o t i a t i o n s g o t un d er w ay , h o w e v e r , C h in a r i s k e d

b ec om i n g t h e o dd man o u t a n d q u i c k l y s c r a m b l c d t o g e t i n t o t h e a c t . Now

I 5 e i j i n g u r g e d H a n oi t o o b s e r v e t h e a g r e e m e n t s s c r u p u l o u s l y , t o l e a v e t he

T h i e u g o v e r n m e n t b e , a g a i n w i t h t h e u l t im a t e g o a l o f k e e p i n g Vie t Nam

w eak a n d d i v i d e d . A f t e r t h e SRV F o r e i g n M i . n i s t r y p u b l i s h e d t h i s

p e r s p e c t i v e i n i t s O c t o b e r 1Y79 W h i t e B o o k , t h e PRC i s s u e d a c a t e g o r i c a l

18

d e n i a l of t h e a l l e g a t i o n s .

1 7

30



'The Norcli Vit tnamese began t h e i r f i n a l o f f c n s i v v i n Ja n u a ry 1 9 7 5 .

Sa i g o n s i ~ r r e n d e r m lon 3 0 A pr il .. A f t e r y e a r s of c o u r a g e o ~ ~ se s i s t a n c e ,

Soiitli VicL Nam l i a d h rc on ~f , o t a l l y e x t ~ a u s t e d -- m o r a l ly and p h y s i c a l l y .

I t s l ong- t i m t pa t r on , t he ) U ni te d S t a t e s , was i t s e l € e x p e r i e n c i n g a

s e r i e s o f u n p r e c e d c n t e d i n t e r n a l c r i s e s and c o u l d n l J t come t o i t s a i d .

R c i j i n g c h e e r c d , a long wi th much of the r e s t of the World, a s N V A t a n k s

smashed through the g a t e s o f t h e P r e s i d e n t i a l P a la c e i n S a i g o n ; y e t , ns

C I I C ~ p r c c c d i n g p a r n g ra p h s d e m o n s t r a t e , a t r a d i t i o n of t h o u s a n d s o f years

i) t r o u b l e s d i e s h ar d .

1 9

A ~ ~ i i c r a llii ine a p p e a r s i n t h i s e x a m i n a t i o n o f t l i r h i s t o r y o t

S i n o - V i e t n o m c s i . r e l a t i o n s . I n h i s s t u d y o f the Si no- Fr e nc h bar o f thl'

13805 , t k n r y M c A l i i a v y makes t h e f o l l o w in g o b s e r v a t i o n .

IC t h c r e i s o n e l ~ s s o n o r C h i n a t o d ra w f r om t h t ? e v e n t s o f tI w

L a s t c e n c u r y a n d a q u a r t e r i t is t h a t m i l i t a r y w ea kn es s on h e r p a r t

c o n s t i t u t t s s a n i r r e s i s t i b l e i n v i t a t i o n t o a g g re s s io n from abroad , and

t h a t Vietnam, unde r tlie c o n t r o l o f a p o t e n t i a l e ne my , m us t a l wa y s form

a p e c u l i a r l y l e t h a l t h r e a t t o tier n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y . 2 0

T h i s is a l e s s o n more a p p r o p r i a t e l y l e a r n e d by t h e V ie tn am es e t h a n

t li c C h i ii e s r , f o r t h e C h i n e s e have l on g been aware of i t . O n t he o t l i e r

h a n d , t h e C h i n c s e m i g h t h e wel l a d v i se d t o l e a r n a n o t h e r l e s s o n . 'The

~ie tna inese - -whe t t i e r Coi rn iuni s t or non-Canmunis t , whether N o r t h e r n e r o r

S o u t t ic r n e r , b h e t h e r u n i t e d O K d i s u n i t e d - - h a v e a l b a y s s o u g h t t h e i r own

j d r n t i t y and havi? alway ; r e s i s t e d Chinese d o m i n a t i o n no m a t t c r hob much

L h e y may h a v e admired C h i n e s e c u l t u r e . T h a t t h e s e and o t h e r lessons

U E ~ C e a r n e d i m p e r € p c t l y - - b y b o t h t h e Chi ne s e a nd t he V i e t na me s e - - ba s

< ] . l u s t r a t e d p o i g n a n t l y by t h e e v e n t s t h a t f o l l o w e d the u n i f i c a t i o n o f

Viet Nam by Hanoi i n 1 9 7 5 .

3 1



I n t e r e s t s , Goa l s , a n d S t r a t e g y

T h e spr i .ng of 1 9 7 5 u s h e r e d i nil

b a s i c p o w e r r e o r i e n t a t i o n

thro ugho ut Indo chin a . Communist regimes were ensconced i n Cambodia and

Laos. US i n f l u e n c e i n t h e r e g i o n bas a t i t s n a d i r , and c o n t i n u i n g

p o l i t i c a l d i s a r r a y i n W ash ing to n seemed t o p r ec lude any Amer ican r r a s -

s e r t i o n of p o k er i n S o u t h e a s t Asia f o r t h e near term. O n t h e o t h e r

hand, t he S o v i e t U ni on a p p e ar e d t o be e n t e r i n g a p e r i o d o f mo re a g g r e s -

s i . ve i nvo lvement i n t h e T h i r d World.

W i t h t h i s new s i t u a t i o n , hob d id Be i j i n g and l lanoi each perce ive

i t s own i n t e r e s t s a n d g o a l s , a n d how much u n d e r s t an d i n g d i d e a ch e x h i b i t

r e g a r di n g t h e i n t e r e s t s a nd g o a ls of t h e o t h e r ? What p o l i c i e s a nd

s t r a t e g i e s d i d e ac h f o l l o b t o s e c u r e i t s i n t e r e s t s a n d a c h i e v e i t s

g o a l s ?

c h i n a

M a i n t a i n i n g a s e c u r e s o u t h e r n f l a n k was Uc i,jing*s f i r s t s t r a t e g i c

i n t e r e s t r e g a r d i n g I n d oc h i na . W i t h Hanoi * s v i c t o r y i n 1 9 7 5 , B e i j i n g

became e v e r m ore c o nc e r ne d w i t h S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e i n t h e a r e a a nd a c c u s e d

t h e S o v i e t s o f t r y i n g t o p e n e t r a t e t h e a r e a t h r ou g h m a ss i ve a i d p r o-

grams. The PHC s u s p e c t e d t h a t t h c USSll was a t te m p ti n g t o c o n t r o l a l l

of South As i a and t h e In d i an Ocean by ga in ing foo th o lds i n t h e tWo

e x t r e m i t i e s or t h e v a s t l a nd mass, v i z . , i n S o u t h r e s t Asia and i n

So uth eas t Asia . Moscox had a l rea dy se cur ed a po s i t i on i n South Yemen.

The C h in e s e f e a r e d t h a t t h e S o v i e t s would be a b l e to d e v el o p t h e o t h e r

end of t h e p i n c e r s t hr o ug h a Moscor-Hanoi a x i s t h a t would f i r s t s e e k

hegemony in Indochina and then i n a l l South eas t As i a . T he Chinese

21

2 2

3 2



l c a l e r s : ;ecnic.d wi L l i n g t o a c c c p t t l i e f a c t t h a t V i e t n a m e s e n a t i o n a l i s m

w u l d n s s c r t i t s e l f r a t h e r a g g r e s s i v e l y a t th i s t ime a n d t h a t i t ~ ~ o u l d

t a k e o n iiii a n t i - C h i n e s c p o s t u r e . W hat t h e C h i n e s a Eound u n a c c e p t a b l e ,

h o k e v e r , w as t h e p o s s i , b i l , i t y t h a t Viet Nam ~ o u l d o l l a b o r a t e w i t h t h e

S o v i e t I ln i on t o d ( i m in a t c C h i n a ' s s o u t l i e r i i [ l a n k . V i et n am e s c a c t i v e

t i o s t i l i.tv ~ o b a r d ambodia was r e g a r d e d a s p a r t i c u l a r l y o m i no us .

be i . j ing Cear< d a polu(ir vi lcuum i n C a m b o d i a , w h i c h the S o v i e t s a nd

V i e t n a m e s e c i i u l d f i l l , and t he C h i n e s e h o p ed t o d c v rl op Cambodia i n t o a

b u r t c r b p t w e m Vit t Nam a n d t h e r e s t o f S o u t he a s L A s i a . For t h i s r i ? a s o n

t h e C h i n c s c L e a d e r s h i p bagan t o 61 the Pol P o t r e g i m e , r i ? p r e l i e n s i b l r

t h o u g h i t ma y ha ve appeared t o m uch o f t h e w r ~ d . 'To t h e C h i n e s e , ii

S o v i e t c o n s o I i d ; i t i i ,n i n S o u t h ea s t : Asia w o u l d b e a s i g n i f i c a n t d r v r l o p -

m t n t i n i t s g r a n d s t r a t e g y o € e n c i r c l i n g t h e PR C .

2 3

24

2 5

W i t h t h e f a 1 1 o f S o u th V i c t Nam, t he C h i n e s c developed a fundani t .n-

t .11 s t r a t e } ; ) t o g u i d e i t s r r l a t i o n s w i t h C o m m u n i s t VieL N n m . H e i j i n g

dr :c i ( lcd t u u s c r c ? s t r a i n t i n d e a l i n g w i t h l l a n o i . T h e C h i n e s c b e l i e v e d

t h a t time b a s o n t h i a ir s i d e . T h ey here r a t h e r c o n r i d e n t t h a t t h e

S o v i e t s woii1.d b ec om e o v e r b e a r i n g i n Vie t Nam a n d t h a t H a n o i w i u l d soon

become a l i e n a t e d . ' T h e y a l s o f e l t t h a t Vie t Nani-s p a t t e r n o f d e v e lo p m e n t

b a s more a k i n t i i C h i n a - s t h a n t o t he S o v i e t U n io n - s a nd t h a t , a s a

r e s u l t , t h e V ie t na m e s i? k o u l d I.ook € O K g u i d a n c c morp t o D e i j i n g t h a n t o

~ ( > s c o k . 'Ct i \? Uei j i n g l e a d e r s h i p p l a n n e d t o be n d e v e r y e f f o r t t o a v o i d

b c c om i ng i i i v o l v i ~ d n H a no i ' s d i s p u w s w i t h i t s n e i g h b o r s . 'L'he P R C h n u l d

5,ork t o e x p an d i . n t e r n a t i o n a 1 d i p l o m a t i c s u p p o r t t o b o l s t e r i t s p o s i t i o n .

T h i s w o ul d i n v o l v e c u l t i v a t i n g , e s p e c i a l l . y , C am b od ia , the A s s o c i a t i o n o f

i o u t h e a s t A s i a n N a t i o n s (ASEAN) c o u n t r i e s , J a p a n , a nd t h e U n i t e d

S t a t e s . F i , n a l l y , t h e I'RC w o u ld o p p o s e a s s t r o n g l y as p o s s i b l e a n y

s o v i e t p e n e t r a t i o n s i n t o the r e g i o n .

2 6

2 1

3 3



In a s s e s s i n g i t s n a t i o n a l i n t e r e s t s , l lanoi was g u i d e d b y t h r e e28

p r im a ry c o n s i d e r a t i o n s : h i s t o r y , i d e o l o gy , a nd t h e i m m e d i a t e t h r e a t .

China had been Viet Nam-s h i s t o r i c a l enemy, f o r a pe r i od wh i c h

s t r e t c h e d o v e r two m i l l e n n i a . T h i s e n g e n de r e d a p e r v a s i v e s u s p i c i o n

k i . t h i n Vietnamese t h i n k i n g t h a t c o u ld n o t be e r a s e d e a s i l y .

I n terms o f i d e o l o g y , t h e V i e t n a m e se - - c o n t r ar y t o C h i n e s e e x p e c t a -

tions--perceived a m or e a t t r a c t i v e model i n t h e USSR than in the PRC.

The D K V had Col lowc d t he M ao i s t pa t t e r n o f Land r e f or m a n d r u r a l d c v e l -

o pm en t i n t h e m i . d - I % Q s , and t he program had provod to b c , l a r g e l y , R

f a i l u r e .

r e v o l u t i o n . T h e war b i t h Sou t h Vie t Nan1 nntl t h e U n i t ed S t a t e s h ad

a l s o i n f l u e nc e d Hanoi's th in ki ng . The Viecnilmese Comnunis t s had Seen

f i r s t h an d t h a t mo de rn w a rE a re r e q u i r e s e x t e n s i v e i n d u s t r i a l a nd t e c h n o -

Log i c a l ba c k i ng , a nd t he y had bec ome i n c r e a s i ng l y d i s e nc h a n t e d k i t h t he

Chinese c o n c e p t ~f peop1e.s war, which p l ay s down the mate r i a l element

i n w a r f a re . Ha no i h ad n a t i o n a l i s t i c v i s i o n s o f hecoming a gr e a t powe r

a nd w a nt e d t o d e v e l o p i t s o m i n d u s t r i a l b a s e. T h e r e f or e , the S o v i e t

example of i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i d n ap p ea l ed more t o t he m t ha n t he C h i n e s e

by 1960 Hanoi had de te rmined n o t f o f o l l o w t h e PRC paradigm O f

2 9

p a t t e r n of r u r a l d e v e l o p m e n t . I n s h o r t , they d i d no t v ie w t h e i r K C V O ~ U -

3 0t i o n a s t h e Chino se thou ght the y would. Ttic Vietnainesc bere a l s o

p r o b a b l y h o pi n g t o use t h e S o v i e t s t o k ee p the Ch in e s e a t b ay .

R e g a r d h g t h e i mm ed ia te t h r e a t , t h e Hanoi gove rnment sav i t s e l f

c a u g h t b e t w e n two h o s t i l e p ow er s who were i n c o n c e r t , t h e PRC a n d t h e

Khmer Rouge * s Cambodia. The Vie tnam ese pe rce ive d th e P R C - s f o r e i g n

p o l i c y t o be a n e x t e n s i o n of t h e t r a d i t i o n a l C h in es e t r i b u t a r y s ys te m.

34



l n f a c t , t li (? V i e l n a m es e suspected t h a t Mao’s Th i r d Wor ld the ory was i

mode r n i n : i n i f t ~ s t a t i on o f : h i s t r a d i t i o n a l C h in e se c o n r i g u r a t i o n . I lan oi

s a w China a s d e s i r i n g a malleable Vi c t na me s e he dge s t a t e t o a c t a s a

b u f f e r a l o n g Chin:i’s s o u t h e r n b o r d e r . M o r e o v e r, t h e V i et n am e se Comu-

n i s t s c o n s i d e r e d I l c i j i n g t o be i n l e a g u e w i t h W as hi ng to n.

3 1

H a no i d e v c l o p e d a s t r a t e g y a i me d a t c o n s o l i d a t i n g i t s s t i l l s h a k y

p o s i t i o n i n I n d o c h i n a . F i r s t , i t woul d de ve l op n modus v i v e n d i w i t h t hc

PIlC a n d C am bo di a. S e c on d , t h e V i e t n a m es e l e a d e r s w u l d move q u i c k l y t o

g a i n p r i i n t i r y i l i f l u e n c f ~ n Laos. T h i r d , Viet Nan1 would c o u r t d i p l om at ic

s li p po r t , e s p e c i a l l y i n the r e s t of S o u t h e a s t A s i n . Four t h , Ha no i w u l d

-

3 2

a

r e n u i n on good tlirms w i t h t h e S o v i e t U n i o n .

W r c e p t i o n s an d N i sp e r c e p t i o n s-

130th (:hin;i and Vict Nam pe rc ei ve d t h e i r i on a l s e c u r i t y i n t e r e s t s

t o Ibi? t h e m os t p r e s s i n g i m me d ia t e f o r e i g n p o l i c y p r o b l e m i n d e a l i n g k i t t i

enchoth( r iri mid-1975. Each saw i t s e l f as b e in g e n c i r c l e d by h o s t i l e

f o r c e s . N r i t h e r b a s v(.,ry p e r s p i c a c i o u s i n c o n s i d e r i n g t h e p o s i t i o n o €

t h e o t h e r . C hi na d i d n o t a p p e a r t o a p p r e c i a t e t h e a l a r m H an oi w ou ld

[ (?e l ove r a n un f r i e nd l y Cambodi a. The PRC f e a r e d mos t of a l l t h e p o s -

s i b i l i t y o f s i g n i f i c a n t S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e i n V i e t Nam. Yet where e l s e

h a s H an oi t o go t o s e c u r e a p o w e r f u l p a t r o n ? Th e Vietnamese p e r c e i v e d ,

c o r r e c t l y , C hi na ’s d e s i r e t o have b u f f e r s t a t e s a l o n g i t s s o u t h e r n

b o r d e r ; b u t t he y d i d n ot a s s c s s c o r r e c t l y Ch in a‘s e xt re me s e n s i t i v i t y t o

i .t s t e r r i t o r i a l s e c u r i t y , e s p e c i a l l y where t h e So vi e t Union might become

i n vo l ve d . l io th s i d e s i n i t i a l l y pl a nn e d t o p l a y € o r t ime, whi c h ,

a c c o rd i n g t o H o l s t i , i s a s i g n of good c r i s i s mana ge men t . E v e n t s were

soon t o s t a r t m oving f a s t e r t h a n e i t h e r s i d e had a n t i c i p a t e d .

35



A P o l i c y of Caut ion, 1975-1977

A E t c r thc . Nor th Vie tnamcse conques t of the South i n A p r i l 1975, thc

C h in e se a d o p te d a p o l i c y o f c a u t i o n and r e s t r a i n t i n d e a l i n g w i t h t h e

c ha ng ed s i t u a t i o n i n S o u t h e a s t Asia. T h e PKC had b a s i c s t r a t e g i c g o al s

which i t s o u gh t t o a c h ie v e . B e i j i n g k i sh e d t o e s t a b l i s h a c o n f i g u r a t i o n

of i n f l u e n c e i n S o u t h e a s t Asia t h a t would maximize Chinese l ea de r s h i p i n

thc r e g i o n . The Chinese wanted t o t hwar t any Sov i e t advances i n t h e

a r e a . 'To a c co m pl i sh t h e s c o b j e c t i v c s , t h e PRC l e a d e r s h i p p l a n ne d t o p u t

pr imary emphasis on d i p 1 o m a t i c m a ne u v er s , e c o n m i c b l a n d i s h m e n t s , a nd

p u b l i c r e l a t i o n s p ro g ra ms . W i t h s p e c i f i c r e g a rd t o H an oi , B e i j i n g

s o u g ht t o a v o i d a n y c o n f r o n t a t i o n t h a t h o ul d e x a c c rb a t ? tlie S i n o -

Vietnamese d i s p u t e and p u s h t h c Victnamosc c1osr . r t o t h c S o v i e t s .

3 3

Conte n t i ou s L ssues , 1975

Ln s p i t e of C h i na - s d e s i r e t o l i m i t t e n s i o n s , a s e r i e s of con t en-

t i o u s i s s u e s d e ve l op e d. The most s i g n i € i c a n t o f t h e s e i s s u e s i n c l u d e d :

(1) d i f f e r e n t s t r a t e g i c p e rc e pt i on s ; ( 2 ) a t t empts by e ac h s i d e t o o u t-

maneuver t h e o c h e r ; 3 ) the s t a t u s o t Laos; ( 4 ) t h e d i s p u t e o ve r t h e

S p r a t l y a nd P ar a c e l i s l a n d s ; 5 ) t h e c o n f l i c t o v e r t h e b o r d e r b e t k e e n

China and Viet N a m ; 6 ) t he Over seas Ch inese p rob l em; ( 7 ) t h e Sino-

V ie tn am e se r i v a l r y i n S o u t h e a s t A s i a ; ( 8 ) t h e q u e s t io n of a i d ; 9 ) t h e

Camb odian s i t u a t i o n ; a n d ( 1 0 ) t h e r o l e o f t h e S o v i e t Union i n t h e re -

g i o n . Of t h e s e i s s u e s , t h e last was by f a r t h e most s e r i o u s bone of

c o n t e n t i o n ; a n d i t p l a y e d a n i m p o r t a n t p a r t i n a l l o f t h e o the r p rob-

lems. T h e PRC pe rc ei ve d a power vacuum i n S o u t h e a s t Asia d ue t o t h e

c o l l a p s e of t h e A m e r i c a n e f f o r t t o s u s t a i n the non-Communist re gime s i n

36



indochini l . I lei . j ing SRW t h i s a s r i p e f o r S o v i e t e x p l o i t a t i o n a nd f e a re d

be ing f l a n k i d on t he south by Moscow.

3 4

'The Cl i inrso began s i g n a l l i n g the Vietnamese a lmost immedia te ly of

th vi r conci?r i~ ha t Moscow would t r y t o g a i n a d v an t a g e i n ll an oi a t

Bci. j ing*r i expe nsc . On 29 J u l y 1 9 7 5 a n e d i t o r i a l i n Ren M i n R i Bao

c a u t i o n e d H an oi a g a i n s t b cc on iin g t o o c l o s e t o t h e S o v i e t s . 'The e d i t -

o r i a l us r ?d tlie o l d adagc o € a l l ow in g t h e t i g e r ( t h e USSK) t o come in t h e

- _ - _

35

back door whiie k i c k i n g the wol f ( t he US) o u t o f t h e f r o n t d o o r . 011 3

September 1 9 1 5 PKC Vice -Premie r Chcm Xi l i an , k h i l c spea k ing in Viet Nom,

warned Hanoi t o gilard ag a i n s t bc,coining a v ic ti m o r Sovict hegemonism.36

In t h e f a l l o f 1075, LE Uuan , t he Sec re t a ry -Grn e ra l o f the V i r ~ am

Worker s ' P ar ty (VWP), made t r i p s t o both Be ij in g and Moscow. These

t r i p s were s i . g n i f i c a n t b t a c a u s e t h e y e s t a b l i s h e d t h e g e n e r a l o t i t l i n c o f

H a n o i ' s r e l a t i o n s w i t h tlie Chinese and t h e S o v i e t s . Ln September the

Vic tnnmes r Scc rc tu ry -Gencra l j o u r n e y c d t o t he P n C . 'Cherr Drng Xiaop ing

r e i t e r a t p d C h i n a -s c on c e pt o fthe

Third Worlda n d

a s s e r t e d t h a ti t

was

i.1, t h e b e s t i n t e r c is c s o f H an oi t o a l i g n i t s e l f w i t h t h i s movement.

T h e Chinese h a d deve loped the ' T h i r d World n o t i o n t o p r o j e c t i t s l e a d e r -

s h i p among the less deve loped co un t r i e s . The V ie tnamese fo r t h e i r

p a r t s a x t h i s a s s t i f l i n g t h e i r own f o r e ig n p o l i c y o p t i o n s , a s endan-

g e r i n g t h e i r r e l a t i o n s w i t h th e Sov ie t Union, and a s bei .ng whol ly in t h e

i n t e r e s t s o f t h e P R C . Ln October Le Duan v i s i t e d Moscow. His m e e t i n g s

w 1 . t h t h e S o v i e t s werr' r a t h e r mo re c o r d i a l t h a n Lhose k i t h t h e Chinese .

l i i s t ead of p r e s s u r i n g h i m , the S o v i e t s o f f e r e d him a i d , t o t he amount of

t h r e e b i l l i o n d o l l a r s o v er t h e n e x t f i v e y e a r s .

37

38

3 9

'The qiiesti .on of a i d became a ve ry sore point be tween the Chinese

and Vietnamese. I n e a r l y 19 75 R e i j i n g h ad g i v e n H a no i c o n s i d e r a b l e a i d :

i n s u p p o r t o f H an oi 's f i n a l o f f e n s i v e a g a i n s t S n ig o n, an d t o make u p f o r

37



the l o s s o f W e s t er n s u p p l i e s t o t h e S o ut h w i t h t h e d e t e a t o f the Repub-

l i c of V i r t Rani. China had been su pp or ti ng North Vice Nan1 wi th abou t

$600 m i l l i o n i n g r a t i s a i d p e r y e a r , a nd Ha no i a p p a r e n t l y had c ou n te d on

r e c e i v i n g th i s i n the f u t u r e . I n A u g u s t 1 9 7 5 , h o s e v e r , B e i j i n g i nf o rm e d

Hanoi th a t i . t was redu cin g i t s a i d p a ck a ge t o 400 mi l l io n pe r year . and

t ha t i t would be i n t h e form of loans . Nor would the PKC s i g n a long-

41

term economic a ss i s t a nc e ag reemen t , which Hano i had been an t i c i pa t i ng .

Be i .j ing was s ig na l l in g Hanoi th a t i t h a d b e t t e r behove . Hanoi per ce iv ed

i t a s a b l a c k m ai l m i n eu v er and accused Ch ina o f a d o p t i n g a c a r r o t and

s t i c k p ol ic y.

40

42

The i s s u e o f t h e O v e rs e a s Ch i n es e a l s o f l a r e d u p s h o r t l y a f t e r

Hanoi-s v i c t o r y o v e r t h e S o u t h.

Chinese , a bo ut f o u r - f i f t h s o f whom l i v e d in the Sou th . S ince 1949

B e ij i ng ' s i n t e r e s t i n t h e Overseas Chines(: c o m m u n i t y i n g e n e r a l h ad

waxed and waned dcpending o n a s s o r t e d f a c t o r s . A s o t he r p rob lems de -

vel ope d b et se en China and Vi et Nam, however, t h e P K C c o u l d n o t a f f o r d t o

o v e r l oo k a c t i o n s t a k e n b y l lano i ag a i ns t thc Ovc rseas Ch inese , fo r

B e i j i n g p e rc e iv e d s uc h a c t i o n s a s a d i r c c t a f f r o n t t o the C h i n e s e

l e a d e r s h i p . F o r i t s pa r t Hanoi thought i t had good r e a s o n t o t a k e

a c t i o n a g a i n s t t h e C hi ne se l i v i n g i n Viet Nam. The Viet name se l e a d e r s

fea r ed t ha t the Ove rseas Ch inese wou ld become a f i f t h co lumn t h a t would

oppose t h e government. They saw t h e s p e c t e r o f Malaya and I n d o n e s i a .

Hanoi was a l s o ea ge r t o g e t a t t h e r i c h Chinese merchan t s o f t hc Sou th .

T h e i r c o n s i d e r a b l e w e a l th would c e r t a i n l y b e o f a s s i s t a n c e t o the f i n a n -

c i a l l y s t r a p p e d V ie tn am es e t r e a s u r y . There was a n i d e o l o g i c a l e l e me n t

as wel l . Hanoi c o u ld s t r i k e a blow a t t h e S ou th er n " c a p i t a l i s t " s t r u c -

t u r e by n e u t r a l i z i n g t h e Chinese bus ines s communi ty . Ad d i t i on a l ly ,

V i f t N a m had Over o n e m i l l i o n O v e r s e a s

4 3

44

38



t h ( ? r e b e r c Ctie p a s s i o n s o f x e n o p h o b i a and r a c i s m l oos e d by the suc-

c o ; s E u l ~: ouq i l c s t of t h e So u tl i. C h i ne s e r c f u g c e s b eg a n f l e e i n g S o u t h

V i i ? t Nom a s :soon a s t h e (:ommunist m i l i t a r y v i c t o r y a p p e a r e d i s m i n e n l .

I n Flay of 1975 t h e D a n i s h s h i p C l a r a M a er sk r e s c u e d a b o u t 4 , 0 0 0 Chinese

r e f u g e e s f r o m Viet Nam i n t h e Sout h China Sea . La rge numbers of Chinese

were f l e e i n g t o Hong Uonj:. In S a i g o n a n t i - C h i n e s e measures commenced

w i t t i t h e Canniuni s I - t ake -ove r of t h e c i t y . T h e PRC f l a g was f o r b i d d e n t o

be f l ow n . S h o r t l y b e f o r e dawn o n 11 Sep temb er 1975 , Vie tn am es e Commu-

n i s t p o l i c e r a i d e d t h e homes a n d bus inesses o f l a r g e n u mb e rs of O v e r s e a s

CIii.nesi i n S a i g o n a n d s e i z e d t h e i r p r o pe r t y . Huynh ‘Can Pha t , t he Prime

$1i n i s t c r I t h e l’r ov i s i o n a 1 Rcvo l u t i onary Cove rnmen t ( PRG , announcct l

t l i a t the Vi e t na me s e W ~ K C ond uc t i ng a p rog r am t o wipe O l J t “compradore

c . i p i a 1i t s . I ’ T h is may have been H an o i’ s r e s p o n s e t o B e i j i n g ‘ s c u t i n

a i d a r m ~ n t h e a r l i e r . I f i t was , t h e V ie tn am e se w e re c e r t a i n l y not

rcspondi .ng t o C h i n a as s i g n a l a s t h e Chi nes e would have them. The c lamp-

d o r n on t he Ove r s e a s Ch i ne s e ma y a l s o ha ve c o n t r i b u t e d t o Le Duan’s c o o l

r e c e p t i o n in B e i j i n g l a t e r i n Se pt em be r. N e v e r t h e l e ss , t h e C h in e se

l o a d e r s h i p c o n t i n u ed t o a c t w i t h r e s t r a i n t . T he re was no v i t u p e r a t i v e

o u t p o u r i n g a g a i n s t H anoi. a s t h e r e wo ul d b e l a t e r a f t e r s i m i l a r

p r o v o c a t i o n s .

4 5

46

47

The t e r r i t o r i a l d i s p u t e s came i n t o t h e op en d u r i n g t h i s e a r l y pos t -

b , i i r p e r i o d its well. Thc s r e nc ompas s e d two a r e a s : t h e m a r i t i m r r e g i o n s

and t h c Innrl bo rde r . The re was c o n s i d e r a b l e b i c k e r i n g o vP r o k n e rs h i p o f

v a r i o u s i s l a n d s , e s p e c i a l . l y t h e P a r n c e l and t h e S p r i lt l y g r o u p s . T h e r e

tras a l s o a rgume nt o ve r t e r r i t o r i a l water s i n t h e Gul f o f Tonk i n . The s e

maritime d i s p u t e s had s ome mer i t i n and of t he m s e l v e s beCauSe t he r e -

: ; ions i n q u e s ~ : i o nwould a p p e ar t o o f f e r o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r o i l e x p l o r a -

t i o n . T he l a n d b o r d e r i s s u e , however , was l a r g e l y a s t r a w m a n . I t

39



became t h e s ym bo l o f a l l t h e o t h e r d i f f i c u l t i e s i n Sino-Vie tnamese

r c l a t i o n s , a nd i t deve loped i n t o t h c f l a s h p o i n t f o r d i r e c t m i l i t a r y

c o n f r o n t a t i o n . A c c o r d i n g t o t l ic Viet na mcs c, bo rd er El arc?-ups had begun

t o o cc u r a s e a r l y as 1 97 4. D o u b t l e s s l y , b o t h s i d e s s o u g h t t o use the

b o r d e r c l a s h e s a s a s i g n a l ; b u t these s i g n a l s p ro ve d t o be i n e f f e c t i v e

because e a c h s i d e p e r c e i v e d the border maneuvers oC thc o t h e r as r e p r e -

s e n t i n g t o t a l l y i na mi ca bl e i n t e n t i o n s .

4 8

49

Both s ides b eg an s t r a t e g i c m a ne uv er s t o g a i n l e v e r a g e o v e r the

o t h e r i n 1975. I l c i j i ng so i~g l i t o b u i l d a b r o a d c o a l i t i o n t o s u p p o r t i t s

p o s i t i o n i n S o u t h ea s t A s i a. I t i n i t i a t e d 'a rapid rapprochemcnt k i t h

ASEAN. The C h i n e s ( : a l s o encouragPd Wash ing ton n o t t o h i t hdra lv pre-

c i p i t o u s l y f r o m A s i a b u t t o c o n t i n u e t o m a i n t ai n a s t r o n g p r e s c n c c ,

p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t he Pa c i f i c and Ind i a n Oceans. A l though Hano i , t oo ,

would soon t r y t o i n v o l v e t h e Unit ed S t a t e s and ASEAN in th e re gi on , i t

found t h i s t o b e e x tr em e ly i r r i t a t i n g i n 1975 i n Lhe i m n e d i a t e h a k e o f

tho war . l n f r aming i t s p o i n t o f r e E e r e n c e , h o wc ve r, B e i j i n g h a s c l e a r

i n e m p h a s i z i n g t h a t i t s main conc ern was Sovi .et ex pans ioni sm. A l l o f

i t s s i g n a l s s t r e s s ed t h i s . T h e Chinese hcre c a r e f u l n ot t o be v i t r i o l i c

i n r e f e r r i n g t o t h e Vietnamese . Hanoi , though, seemed to be e x t r e m e l y

u n s o l i c i t o u s of Chinese views and q u i t e i n s e n s i t i v e t o C hi n e se c o n c e r n s,

f o r t h e V i et n am e se l e a d e r s h i p c ame dawn o p e n l y a n d e n t h u s i a s t i c a l l y on

t h e S o v i e t s i d e of e v e r y i s s u e . Even more a larming to t h e Cliiiiesc here

var ious agreements between Hanoi a n d Moscow t h a t e s t a b l i s h e d a con-

s i d e r a b l e S o v i e t p re s en c e i n V i e t N a m and gave t h e S o vi .e t s g r e a t i n -

f l u e n c e i n t h a t c o u n t r y . Fo l lo lv ing Le Duan's t r i p t o Moscolv i n O c to b er

o l 1 97 5, E d i t h Le n a r t r e p o r t e d i n Far Eastern Economic Review:

50

40



The V i f t na mf vc . . . s u p p o r t Mnscou e f f o r t s t o d i m i n i s h C h in a ' s

influence i n tlie 'Third World and among non -a l ign ed na t i on s . In t i i rn ,

th( S o v i 1 . t ~ ire b a c k i n g I lanoi . s movu Lowards a s p ee d y r e u n i f i c a t i ( i n

0 1 V i e t n a m . For i t s p a r t , P e k i n g h ad h op ed t h a t t h e r e u n i f i c a t i o n

~ K O C ( ? S S b o u l d ho gradu:il..

. . .T he l a t e s t S o v i e t a i d a g r ee m e nt k i t h

H a no i g r a n t s t h e V i e t n a me s e a n und i s c l os e d a moun t of " c r e d i t s on c > a s y

tiirms."v c lo p me n t p l a n s an d p r o v i d e s f o r S o v i e t s p e c i a l i s t s to t r a i n Viet-

I t c a l A s f u r t h e " c o or d in f l ti o (1 o f t h e , t wy c oun t r i e s : de :

namest5 in Viet Nam i n v a r i o u s b r a n c h e s o f c c on om y, s c i e n c e , t e c h -

n o l o g y a nd c u l t u r e . " T he S o v i e t U ni on w i l l " a s s i s t i n de v e lo p i ng

V ir tn am es i i n d u s t r y a nd a g r i c u l t u r e and s t u d y t h e t e c h n i c a l a nd

econ omic ;Ispc cts of 1 ; iunc hi ng Se v e r a l ma j o r c c onomi c p r o . j e c t s i nVietnam. "5 1

T h a t V i s t Nam b o ii ld s e e k S o v i e t a i d a n d s u p p o r t i s n o t s u r p r i s i n g ,

arid p e r h a p s tlie Cti i i ios i~would tiAvc, ti11cr:~ted a m e a su r e o f S o v i e t -

V i e t n a m e se c o o p e r n t i u n w i t h o u t b e c om in g o v e r l y u p s e t ; b u t H an oi u s ed i t s

Scmvie t connec t ion not merely t o r e b u i l d the c o u n t r y b u t also a s I w a p o n

t o b r a n d i s h i n t h 1 , f ac t? of th e Chi nes e . By the nnd o f 1 9 7 5 , Vi e t na m ' s

r i t ibspapr r s r a n s r r i a l p a n c g y r i c s t o t h e S o v i e t Un io n an d t h e S o v i e t

s ys t e m.

H a n oi ' s d e s i . r e t o d o m i n a t e a l l o f I n d o c h i n a c o u l d h a r d l y b e d i s -

gu i sed . S u p p o r t e d b y t h e S o v i e t s , t h e Vietnamese r e s u r r e c t e d t h e i d e a

of a n I nd o c hi n a f e d e r a t i o n i n l a t e 1 9 7 5 . B e i j i n g f e a r e d t h e p o s s i b i l i t y

t h a t t h i s might: Lead t o a n e v e n s t r o n g e r p owe r on i t s s o u t h e r n b o r d e r

a nd op po se d t h e n o t i o n . H av in g c o n t r o l l e d t h c m ai n f a c t i o n o f t hc

P a t h e t L a o Srorn i t s v e r y i n c e p t i o n , H an oi was soon t o e x e r c i s e a u t h o r i t y

O V ~ K aos. W i t h t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t of t h e Lao Pe op l e ' s De moc r a t i c Repub-

l i c i n December 1 9 7 5 , H a n oi ' s d o m i n a t i o n o f t h a t c o u n t r y was € O K t h e

m o s t p a r t c o m p l e t e .

The PKC a c c e p t e d V i e t n a m e s e i n f l u e n c e i n Laos w i t h a c e r t a i n a m o u n t

o f good gr ac e . Whnre Bt i j ing was de t e r m i ne d t o make a s t a n d w as k i t h

Cambodia . I t was ii poor c h o ic e . C hi na 's a l l i a n c e w i t h t h e K h m e r

Nouge 's Dem ocr at i c Kampiichea co ul d d o n o t h i n g b u t c a u s e B e i j i n g di s co m -

f i t u r e . S u p p o r t i n g t h e g e n o c id a l r eg i me o f Pol Po t pu t Ch i na i n (I v e r y

4 1



u n c o m f o r t a b l e p o s i t i o n ; a n d C om mun is t C am b od ia ’s b e l l i g e r e n t

i m t r a n s i g e n c c t o w a r d Viet N n m was a l m o s t c e r t a i n t o lead t o w a r , ~ h i c h

w o u 1 . d p o s e Ch i n a t h e d i l en m i n o f how t o r e s p o n d . N e v e r t h e l e s s , t h e r e

bere s e v e r a l r e a s o n s f o r i n i t i a l h o p es i n C h i n a t h a t a C a m b o d i a n a l l i -

a n c e w o u l d b e a p p r o p r i a t e . F i r s t , t he Khmer R o ug e h a d f o l l o w e d t he

M a o i s t m o d e l o f r e v o l u t i o n a r y w a r f a r e . S e co n d , i t h a d n o s t r o n g t i e s

b i t t i Moscow. I t h a d b e e n b a n k r o l l e d b y the PRC a l m o s t e x c l u s i v e l y .

T h i r d , i t f l a n k e d Viet Nam t o t h e west a n d s t o o d a thwar t H a n o i - s p a t h t o

t h v r e s t of S o u t h e a s t A s i a . F o u r t h , t h e Khmer Kougc has m i l i t a n t l y

a n t i - V i . e t n a m e s e . T h i s l a s t p o i n t has b o r n m i t by C am bo di an a t t a c k s

a g a i n s t t h o V ie t n am e s e a l o n g t h e b o r d e r a n d i n t h e S o u t h C h i n a S e a i n

May and J u n c o f 1 97 5 . J u s t as t h e Vietnamesc s ee m ed i n s e n s i r i v e t o

C h i n e s e c o n c e r n s i n d e a l i n g k i t h t h e S o v i e t s , the C h i n e se l i k e w i s e d i d

n o t S O W m uch a p p r e c i a t i o n f o r V i e t n a m c s e concerns i n d e a l i n g w i t h t h e

C a m b o d i a n s . Khmer R o u g e l e a d e r s K h i eu Sam p h am an d I r n g S a r y v i s i t e d

B e i . j i n g i n A u g u s t of 1 9 7 5 . T h e y r e c e i v o d b o t h a w arn1 w e lc om e a n d a

p r om i se o f c o n s i d e r a b l e a i d , i n c l u d i n g m i l i t a r y h a rd w a re . T h i s w as a t a

time when t h e r e w r e a c t i v e b o r d e r h o s t i l i t i e s b et wc nn Cam bo d ia a nd Viec

N a m a nd a t a time clien C h i n a was r e d u c i n g i t s a i d t o t la n o i . T he

C am b o di a ns , f o r t h e i r p a r t , d e c l a r e d c o m p le t e s u p p o r t f o r t h e p o l i c i e s

o f t h e PRC.

5 3

54

5 5

By t he e n d the e n d o f 1 9 7 5 , b o th s i d e s h ad s t a k e d o u t t h e i r p o s i -

t i o n s . R e i j i n g h ad i s s u e d n um e ro us s i g n a l s t o H a n oi b a r n i n g t h a t t h e

USSR w as t r y i n g t o ma ke Viet Nam n s a t e l l i t e a n d t h a t g oo d r e l a t i o n s

w i t h t h e PKC h o u l d d e p e n d o n how f a r H an oi d i s t a n c e d i t s e l f f ro m

Moscow. In g e n e r a l , B e i j i n g ’ s c r i t i c i s m s o f H a n o i were r e s t r a i n e d a n d

l o w - k e y e d. T he C h i n e s e w a n t e d i t c l e a r t h a t i t m s Noscob t h e y f e a r e d .

42



111 t h i s Ithey seenicil t o bP i n a c c o r d w i t h I l o l s t i ' s p r i n c i p l e s o f g ood

c r i s i s m an ag cm en l. Jlierc the C h i n e s e s h o w e d rathi r ltiss s k i l l w as i n

t h e i r q u i c k r e d u c t i o n o f a i d t o l l a no i and i n t h e i r u n q u a l i f i e d s u p p o r t

of C a m b o d i a . Had t h e y u s e d a b i t m o re c a r r o t t h a n s t i c k i n t he se e a r l y

s i g n a l s , t h e y may h a ve b e en m ore s u c c e s s f u l i n d e f e r r i n g H a n oi f r om

t a k i n g a c t i o n s t hey d e e m e d u n a c c e p t a b l e . 'The V i e t n a m e s e se eine d t o r e a c t

p o s i t i v e l y t o n o n e of t h e C h i n e s e s i g n a l s . A lm o st i m m e d i a t e l y H a no i

d t i v e l op ed c l o s e r r e l a t i o n s w i t h M os co w i n a n e f f o r t t o d e t e r C h i n e s <

i i i l ' l u e n c e i n S o uL h ct as t A s i a a n d t o e n s c o n c e V i e t n a m e s e p o w er t h r o u g h o u t

L n d o c h i n a .

-m>ritent io n Continues, 1 9 7 6 - 1 9 7 7

T h t . y v a r s 1 9 7 6 a n d 1977 saw a c o n t i n u a t i o n o f the p a t t e r n s e s t n b -

L i s t i ed i n 1 9 7 5; y e t c r i s i s m a na ge me nt s ee me d t o b e w o r k i n g . T h e r e w a s a

d e [ i n i t i ea:iing of t e n s i o n s i n 1 9 7 6 . T h i s w a s d u e t o some e x t e n t a t

l p a s t t o t h ? f a c t t h a t t h e p a r t i e s c o n c e r n e d w e re p r e o c c u p i e d w i t h

i n t e r n a l p r o b l e m s . T he PRC w i t n e s s e d t h e d e a t h s o f Z hou E n l a i a n d Mao

Z e do n g, t h e f a l l . from g r a c e f o r t h e s e c o n d time o f D en g X i a o p i n g , a n d

t l i r p u r g e of t h e Gang of Four. H a n o i was b us y s o l i d i f y i n g N o r t h e r n

c o n t r o l o v e r t h e S o u t h a n d c om me nc in g po s t - w a r r e c o n s t r u c t i o n . E ve n t he

Khmer Kollge were i n a q u i e s c e n t p e r i o d i n t h e i r f o r e i g n r e l a t i o n s .

D u r i n g 1 9 76 H a n o i h o p ed t o d c v e l o p a r e a s o n a b l y i n d e p e n d e n t f o r r i g r l

p o l i c y by i m p r o v i n g r e l a t i o n s w i t h C h i n a a n d t h e West a n d b y h o l d i n g the

: ; o v i e t s a t a b i t o f a d i s t a n c e . B o t h C h i n e s e a n d V i e tn a m e s e p r e s s

, : o v e r a g e of t h e o t h e r became m o re c o r d i a l . E co no mic a n d e d u c a t i o n a l

d e l e g a t i o n s o n c e m or e W ~ K C x c h a n g e d .

56

C h in es <? s i g n a l s t o Viet Nam a t t h i s t ime were g e n e r a l l y p o s i t i v e .

On 2 J u l y 1 9 7 6 , V i c t N a m was o f f i c i a l l y r e u n i f i e d an d t h e S o c i a l i s t

4 3



R e p u b l ic o f Viet Nam (SR V) d e c l a r e d . A l t h o u g h B e i j i n g h a d h o pe d t h a t a n

i n d e p c n d e n t C orrm iun ist r e g i m e m i g h t s u r v i v e i n S o u t h Viet Nam f o r some

t ime, the C h i n e s e l e a d e r s h i p s e n t s e v e r a l m e ss a g es o f g oo d h i l l t o H a n o i

w i t h t h e r v u n i f i c a t i o n . M o r eo v e r , the V i e t n a m e s e se em e d t o bc r e s p o n -

d i n g p o s i t i v e l y f o r a c h a n g e . On I J u l y 1 97 6 H a no i p u b l i s h e d a r a t h e r

harm message o f c o n g r a t u l a t i o n s on t h e o c c a s i o n of t h e f i f t y - f i f t h

a n n i v e r s a r y o f t h e f o u n d i n g o f t he CCP. On 1 0 S c p t i s m b e r 1 9 7 6 , t he

V i et n a m e se s e n t c o n d o le n c e s t o B e i j i n g on the d e a t h of M ao Z ed o n g .

T h e i r m e s sa g e s t r e s s e d S i n o - V i e t n a m e s e F r i e n d s h i p . F u r t t ie rn io rc , t he

V i e t n a m e s e were of c o n s i d e r a b l e a s s i s t a n c e t o t h c C h i n ~ s e n t h e c m -

b a l m i n g o f Mao's b o d y a n d i n the c o n s t r u c t i o n o f h i s m a u s o l e u m .

5 7

58

5 9

60

I.Jlii12 t e n s i o n s h ad b ee n r e l a x e d i n 1 9 7 6 , the c o n t e n t i o u s i s s u e s

r e m a i n e d . T h e PRC c o n t i n u e d t o r e d u c e i t s a i d t o H a n o i . Uy t h e e n d of

1 9 7 6 , m i l i t a r y a s s i s t a n c e h ad b ee n c u r t a i l e d s h a r p l y , and v i r t u a l l y a l l61

g r a n t s h a d been r e p l a c e d by l o a n s . " a r t of t h i s p e r c e i v e d p a r s i r o n y

bas t h e r e s u l t o f C h i n a ' s d e s i r e t o i n v e s t i t s l i m i t e d r e s o u r c e s m o re

i n t e n s i v e l y i n i t s o v n m o d e r n i z a t i o n p r og r am . Clashes a l o n g t h e S i n o -

V i e tn a m e s e b o r d e r a p p a r e n t l y c o n t i n u e d t o b r ea k o u t d u r i n g 1 9 76 , b u t i t

is i n s t r u c t i v e t h a t n e i t h e r s i d e m ade much of t hese .

6 2

R e l a t i v e l y c o r d i a l r e l a t i o n s liere t o p r e v a i l . t h r o u g h o u t m uch o f

1 9 7 7 . On 10 J a n u a r y 1 9 7 7 , a Long a r t i c l e i n Ken Min K i B a o r e c a l l e d the_ _ - -

d a y s of S i no - V i e t n a m e se f r i e n d s h i p an d Z h o u E n l a i - s s p e c i a l a f f e c t i o n

f o r Viet N a m . F u r t h e r p o s i t i v e s i g n a l s were t o f o l l o v . 'She Chinese

lvere p a r t i c u l a r l y p l e a s e d by * h a t a p p e a r ed t o b e a d e t e r i o r a t i o n i n

S o v i c t -V i e tn a m e s e r e l a t i o n s a t t h e time. T h r V i e t n a m e s e h a d b e e n e x -

p r e s s i n g t h e i r d i s c o n t e n t u i t h t h e a m o u n t ( i f S o v i e t a i d a n d w i t h S o v i e t

6 3



(14

h i g h - h a n d a d n i ~ s . 'The Chinese r e s p o n d e d b y e n c o u r a g i n g H a n o i . On I Y

M a r c h 1 9 7 7 t h I ? PI((: i i n d t l i e S R V c o n c l u d c d :I t r a d c a g r e e m e n t . Hano i

a l s o madc, moves t o im pr ov i. r c l a t i o n s w i t h W a s h i n g t o n . r\ c n n m i s s i o n

undi r Li?onard W o o d c o c k v i s i t e d the SKV i n M arch O F 1 9 7 7 , b u t normaliza-

t i o n o l US-SKV r e l a t i o n s b o g ge d down o v e r I la n o i 's i n s i s t e n c e t h a t W ash -

i n g t o n p:iy h u g e r e p a r a t i o n s :IS a p r e c o n d i t i o n . B e i j i n g may h a ve h ad

m i x e d f r e 1 i n i : s a b o u t an A m e r i c a n - V i e t n a m e s e r a p p r o c h e m e n t . On the 01113

h a n d , t h e PRC w a n te d t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s t o p l a y a n a c t i v e ~ o l ~n

S o u t h e a s t A s i a t o c o i l i i t e r t h e S o v i e t s . On t l i e o t h o r h a n d , U e i j i n g w o 1 1 1 d

p r o b a b l y h i i v t bcer i d i :; p li ; is e d i f t h e Ur1i tc .d S t ; i t i : s h a d recognized t l i v

SKV b e f o r e i t h ad r e c o g n i z e d t h e PI C.

6 5

66

The n ~ a j o r n ip eiIim t? nt t o t h e d e v e l o p m e n t n i c1osc . r t i e s b r r w e e n

Hanoi a nd B e i j i n g i n 1 97 7 w as t h e r e k i n d l i n g o f t h e C a m b o d i a n W ~ K .

1 : i g t i t i n g b e g a n a l o n g the b o r d e r i n A p r i l a n d i n t e n s i f i e d a s t h t y ~ a r

wr nt on. 'I'ht PRC h a d a r m e d a n d s u p p o r t e d t h e Khmer Rouge r e g i m e , w h i c h

a n g e r e d t he V i f. tn am e si :. T h e C a m b o d ia n s h ad i n c r e a s e d t h e i r m i l i t a r y

s t r e n g t h f ro m s i x t o e l e v e n d i v i s i . o n s s i n c e 1 97 5.

6 1

D u r i n g October o f 1 9 7 7 S o v i e t - V i e t n a m e s e r e l . a t i o n ~ e ga n t o i m p ro v e

o n c e m o r e . A t l e a s t e i g h t h i g h r a n k i n g d e l e g a t i o n s f ro m t h e S o v i e t Un io n

v i . s i t e d t h e SRV i n O c t o b e r . T h i s r e p r e s c n t e d a r e a f f i r m a t i o n of S o v i e t -

V i et na m es i? c o o p e r a t i o n a c r o s s a b r o ad f r o n t . H a no i re s po n de d w i t h a

" l e a r n f r o m t h e S o v i e t Un io n" c a m p a i g n , a c c o m p a n i e d by t h e u s u a l s e r i e s

o f f u l s o m e iiews e d i t o r i a l s i n t h e ma.jor p a p e r s a n d . j o u r n a l s . The SRV

m o v e d c l o s e r t o t h c USSR f o r s e v e r a l r e a s o n s . H a n oi w as i n f i n a n c i a l

d i f f i c u l i e s . T h c V i e t n a m e s e C o m u n i s s a t em pt t o e x t o r e re p a r a t i o n

p a y m e n t s f r o m the U n i t e d S t a t e s h a d f a i l e d , and t h e PRC s h o w e d no s i g n

#)I : b e c o m i n g more g e n e r o u s w i t h a i d . In t h e s e c i r c u m s t a n c e s , S o v i c t

8 conomi.c s u p p o r t b e ca me e v e r m or e c r i t i c a l . T h e g r o w i n g w a r w i t h

45





C o n t e n t i o n Ueconirs C r i s i s , 1978-1979

'The year 1: I 9 / 8 saw t h e b re ak do wn o f e f f e c t i v e c r i s i s m anag emen t

o € t h 6 ? Si.no- 'iel:namese d i s p u t e . Thc c o n t e n t i u u s i s s u e s t h a t i r r i t a t c d

r e l a t i o n s b e tw ee n H an oi a nd B e i j i n g wo ul d b o i l u p a nd e v e n t u a l l y l e a d t o

Eat-. T h i s s t u d y e xa m i ne s t h e r i s e of the c r i s i s i n se ve n s t a g e s from

J a n u a r y 1 97 8 t o F e b r u a r y 1 97 9.

Tliroiigliout the month or J a n u a r y 1 9 7 8 t he bordcr war between Cambo-

d i a and V i r t N a n 1 rngi?d w L t h a nelj i n t e n s i t y . O n 31 December 1977, l'linont

Pt nh had b r o k e n d i p l o m a t i c r e l a ti . o n s w i t h H a n o i ; and Hanoi perceivcld

CIiinn, i n c i i l l ~ ~ s i o i i i t h t he U n i t e d S t a t i ? s and Cambodia, t o his d o i n g

e v c r y t h i . n g i t c o u l d t i) k e e p V i e t Nam from becoming i1 s t r o n g r e g i o n al

power. O n t h e oLt1t.r ha nd , the C h i n e s e b e l i e v e d t h a t thc Vie tnamese I ~ E K ~

p l o t L i n g w i t h t h e S o v i e t s t o g a i n hegemony o v e r f i r s t I n d o c h i n a , t h e n

O v e r a l l S o u t h e n s t A s i a .

7 0

N e i t h e r t h r PRC nor the SKV had a b a nd on e d p o s i t i v e c r i s i s m an ag e-

mt,nt completely, however . In r e sp o ns e t o a c o m p l a i n t f ro m H an oi t h a t

the PKC p r e s s w a s o n e -s i d ed i n r e p o r t i n g t h e war, Ren Min K i B a o pub-

l i s h ed : i c c o u n t s f ro nt b o t h the V i et n a me s e a n d C am bo di an p e r s p e c t i v e s o n

10 . J anuary 1978 . Af te r a mass i ve , two-month push in t o Cambodia , t he

71

i e t namesf :innounced

w a s e - € i r e , a m ut ua l

:set t lenient . Nci t h e r

a p e a c e p l a n on 5 February 1978 .

t r o o p p u l l -b a c k from t h e b o r d e r ,

Phnom Penh nor B e i j i n g r e s p o n d e d

I t c a l l ed f o r a

and a n e g o t i a t c d

7 2

47



H E i gli t e i i i n g C r i s i s , La t cF e b r u a r y t o L a t e N a y , 1978-

T o b a r d tlie e n d o f F e b r u a r y , S i n o - V i e t n a m e s e

p r e c i p i t o u s d e c l i n e . S e v e r a l o f t h e c o n t e n t i o u s

r e l a t i o n s b eg an a

i ssues now c a m e t o a

neb h e ad . C am b od ia n a t t a c k s h ad c o n t i n u e d u n a b a t e d s i n c e Hanoi's 5

F e b r u a r y p e a c e o f f e r . On 2 1 F e b r u a r y 1 9 i 8 , R a d i o Ha no i a c c u s e d t h e PRC

oT g i v i n g m a s s i v e m i l i t a r y a i d t o C am bo d ia a n d o r e n c o u r a g i n g the Khmer

n ou ge t o c o n t i n u e m i l i t a r y o p e r a t i o n s a g a i n s t thc SnV. To u n d e r l i n e

t h c i r c o n c e r n , t h e y p o i n c r d o u t tlif l a r g r n un ib t r o f c a s u a l t i e s t h e y bere

t a k i n g . T he C h i n e s e r e sp o n d p d p r e s e n t l y . A t ttif F i f t h N a t i o n a l

p c o p l e * s C o n g r e s s , h r l d i n B e i j i n g f ro m 28 P c b r u a r y t n 5 M a r c h 1978 , H u a

G u of en g d e c l a r e d t h a t ' h o c o u n t r y s h o u l d s e e k h eg em ony i n a n y r e g i o n o r

i m p o s e i t s w i l l o n o t h e r s . "

w ord a s s o c i a t e d Q S much k i t h t h e SRV a s w i t h t he USS1<. On 5 March

B e i . j i n g s e n t a t e c h n i c a l m i s s i o n t o C a mb o di a. T h e C h i n e s o p r a i s e d t h c

C a m b o d i a n s f o r o p p o s i n g "imemies of a 1 1 c a t e g o r i , e s . " f k i j i n g w as

c l e a r l y s i g n a l l i n g H a no i t o k ee p i t s h a n d s o f f C am bo di.a . S h o r t l y

t h e r e a f t e r , t h e C a m b o d i a n s l a u n c l i e d a s h a r p a t t a c k a r o u n d the V i r t n a n i r s e

b o r d e r c i t y o f Ha T i e n . S u ch h i t - a n d - r u n a s s a u l t s by t h e C a mb o di an s

were t o c o n t i n u e t h r o u g h o u t the s p r i n g .

7 1

7 4

By t h i s t ime " he gc m ony" ha d be c om e a c o d e

7 5

7 6

7 7

A s e c o n d a rea bhere t e n s i o n s o n c e a g n i n m ou nt e d r a p i d l y b a s t h a t of

the O v e r s e a s C h i n e s e .

m o b i l i z e O v e r se a s C h i n e se c a p i t a l , c o n n e c t i o n s , an d e x p e r t i s e t o s u p p o r t

t h c F o ur X o d e r n i z a t i o n s . I n J a n u a r y of 1978 a s p e c i a l c o n f e r e n c e on t h e

O v e r s e a s Chinese bas h e l d i n B e i j i n g . The O v e r s o a s C h i n e s e A f I a i r s

C o m m is s io n w a s o n c e a g a i n set up a t m i n i s t e r i a l l e v e l , and p r o p s e d a

p r o g r a m of c o o p e r a t i o n b e t b e e n t h e O v e r s e a s C h i n e s e a n d t he PRC.

Ry t h e b e g i n n i n g o f 1 9 7 8 , tlie P R C was h o p i n g t o

7 8



-.<en __in K i -lao d e c l a r e d R e i j i n g ' s h e i g h t e n e d i n t i i r e s t i n t h e O v e r s e a s

(:hiii( sn i n 211 a r l i c L i t on 4 J a n u a r y 1978. To t h e e x t e n t t h a t t h i s

a r t i c l e b as i i s i g n a l t o l l a n o i , t h e I'RC p r o b a b l y m e an t i t t o be n o t h i n g

more t h a n ii w a rn in g t h a t B e i j i n g was i n t e r e s t e d in p r o p e r t r e a t m e n t f o r

tli? e t l i r i i c Ctiiricse i n V i e t Nan); b ut Hanoi c o ul d e a s i l y i n t e r p r e t t h i s a s

a n impingement on Vie t Nam-s s o v e r e i g n t y , b o t h p o l i t i c a l l y an d econoni-

i c a l l y . A t a ny r at e , a ga i n t h e C h i n e s e f a i l e d t o d e t e r t h e Vie tnamese

Erom t a k i n g n c o u r s e o C a c t i o n of w hi ch B e i j i n g d i s a p p r o v e d . O n 2 4

:.lsrcli 1 9 7 8 , t h ~ ' R V ' s s e c u r i t y p n l i c c b eg an ma s si v e r a i d s on C h i n e s r

b t t s i n e s s e s i r i ( : h o I o n . 'The p o l i c e c l o s e d more t h a n 30,000 Chi ne s e b u s i -

nc. s s s a b 1 s hmen t s . C h i n e s e m e r c h a n t s i n H an o i a l s o b eg an t o s u f f i . r

i n c re a s ed i m i t a t i u n s on t h e i r b u s i n e s s a c t i v i t i e s . I n e a r l y May

ri po r ts f ronl V i e L Nam i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h c r e ha d b ee n b lo o dy c l a s h e s

b e t w e n t he s e c u r i t y p ol i c e a nd t h e O v e r s e a s C h i n e s e a n d t h a t many

Cliinesc had b e en k i l l e d . T h e f i r s t wave of the g r e a t e x o d u s oC Chi -

n a s e f rm i Viet N ; i m o c c u r r c d i n Ap r i l and May of 1 9 7 8 . Almost 100,(~00

e t h n i c Cli inrse f l e d N o r t h Viet Nam a c r o s s the Land b o r d e r i n t o Ch i n a.

B e i j i n g p e r c e iv e d H an o i' s p e r s e c u t i o n of t h e O v e r s e a s C h i n c s e t o b e

p r i m a r i l y a n t i- C h in e s e r a t h e r t h a n a n t i - f r e e e n t e r p r i s e .

7 9

R O

81

8 2

8 3

'The f l a r i n g u p of t h e O v e r s e a s C h i n e s e p ro b le m e x a c e r b a t e d t w o

o t h e r c o n t e n t i o u s i s s u e s . W i t h l a r g e n u m b e r s o f Chinese c r o s s i n g f r o m

Li.et Nam in:() China by ] .and, S ino-Vi.c tns inese bo rde r t en s i on s r o s e . 'The

b o r d e r r(=gi .ons bt,came more m i l i t a r i z e d , and tlie nuiner o f i n c i d e n t s begeu

t o i n c r e a s e . O n 1 2 May the F o r e ig n M i n i s t r y of tlie PRC i nformed Hanoi

1.i1at i t was c u r t a i l i n g s i g n i f i c a n t amou nts of economic a i d t o the SKV.

I k i i i n g was s i g n a l l i n g Hano i t o d e s i s t i n i t s a n t i - O v e r s e a s C h i n e s e

pol i cy b e c a u s e t h i s F o r e i g n M i n i s t r y ' s n o t e a s s e r t e d t h a t t h e a i d e a r -

marked f o r Hanoi would now be u s ed t o a s s i s t t h e r e El ig ee s.

84

85

4 9



Tn e a r l y May the Chinese h( gan t o s i g n a l t h e i r r i s i n g co n c e r n o v e r

t h e i n c r e a s i n g S o v i e t p r cs e n c e i n Viet Nam. l‘liis Gas done through a

s e r i e s o l a r t i c l e s i n the pro-PRC Hong Kong newspape r Wen Wei I ’ m . On

11 May 1978, Wen Wei Pa0 a s s e r t e d t h a t t h e S o v i e t s had e s t a b l i s h e d a

p e rm an e nt , l a r g e - s c a l e p r e s e n c e i n t he SRV. Th(> a r t i . c l e ma i n t a i n e d t h a t

t h e t h e r e were S o v i e t a d v i s o r s t h r o ug h o u t t h e c o u n t r y . On 2 2 May an

a r t i c l e a p p e a r e d i n Wen Wei Pao d e s c r i b i n g t h e O v e rs e a s C h i n e s e c r i s i s

a s t h e C h i n e s e Communi s t s pe r c e i ve d i t . F i r s t , i t r e i t e r a t e d the p e r -

c e p t i o n t h e t ~ ~ ~ , ~ i * ~e r s r c u t i o n O F t h c e t h n i c C h i n e s e i n Viet Nam w a s

a n a n t i - L’KC a c t i o n , d e s i g n e d t o i n f l ame S no-V i e t name sc rc 1a t o ns .

S e c o n d ,

d i f f i c u l t i e s .

v i e t Nan1 and o f Nor k i ng t o p o i s o n t h e a l r e a d y d i s t ~ r b c d t mo sp he re

h e t w c n Ha no i a nd Be i j i ng .

_ _ _

8 6

- _ -

i t saw the b l a c k h an d o f t h e S o v i e t Union s t i r r i n g u p the

Wen Wei Pao a c c u s e d t h e S o v i e t s of t r y i n g t o s u b j u g a te- - _

8 7

11s the c r i s i s h e i gh t en e d, t h e s i g n a l l i n g brcanie mor e ne ga t i ve , mor e

i n t e n s e , an d more r a p i d . H o l s t i p o i n t s t o t h i s as an i . n d i c at o r t h a t t h e

p a r t i c i p a n t s a r e f e e l i n g t h e ms e lv e s t o b e u nd er g r e a t e r s t r e s s .

N e v e r t h e l e ss , b o th s i d e s w e re s t i l l h e h e v i n g w i t h some c i r c u m s p e c t i o n .

E ac h s i d e t e n de d t o b e o b l i q u e i n i t s c r i t i c i s m s o f t h e o t h e r . ‘The

l eve l of v i t r i o l i n t h e r h e t o r i c % a s k e p t r e a s on a b l y low. B e i j i n g

i s s ue d s ome o f i t s s t r o n g e r s i g n a l s n o t t h r ou g h t h e o f f i c i a l PllC/CCP

o r g a n s b u t r a t h e r th r o u gh t h e p r o - B e i j i n g press i n Hong Kong.

88

50



'She Sino-Vie tnamcse d i s pu t e s eemed to r each a c r i t i c a l t u r n i ng

point on 24 May 1978. On t h a t d a y t h e Khmer Rouge launched a v i c i o u s

co mt c r a t t i l ck ag a i ns t p ro -Hano i Khmer t roops i n easterl l Canlbodia and

r o u t c d them. 'She Vie tnamese had hoped t o avo id e s ca l a t i ng t h e i r

d i r e c t i n t e r v e n t i o n i n Cambodia by b u i l d i n g a na t i v e Khmer r e s i s t an ce

inovenlent, a n d n o b t h i s r c s i s t a n c e moveiiienL had be en d e a l t a c r i p p l i n g

b l o b . O n thi same d ay , I k i j i n g f i r e d a propaganda b roads ide a~ the SRV.

Gone wueri r h e t o r i c a l r e s t r a i n t and i n d i r e c t a t t a c k . The PRC i s s u e d a

S I iltcnient o f a c c u s a t i o n s t h ro u gh i t s o f f i c i a l nebs a g e n c y d i r e c t l y

aj :ainst t lanoi .

c i i t i ons of t h e Chinese i n Vict Nam. The PRC a s s e r t e d t h a t i t had t r i e d

ic i liest t o d i es u ad e t h r SRV t h ro u g h l r i e n d l y b la n d i s h me n t s b ut t h a t

H:inoi had d i s r ega r ded a l . 1 po s i t i ve s i g na l s . Th e SRV re .j ec te d a l l o t

tht?s( charges I:ht I n l l o b i n g d a y. N e v e r t h e l e s s , t h e C h in e s e l e a d e r s

c , ) n t i n u r d t h e i r a t t a c k on t h e Vietnamese. On 26 May t h e y announced that

t h e y would send s h i p s t o Viet Nam t o re sc ue the Overseas Chines<. . A t

t h i s p o i n t t h e Vie tnamese a t tempted t o calm t h e s i t u a t i o n b y a c c e p t i n g

t h e Chinesi o f f e r t o s en d s h i p s t o e v ac u at e e t h n i c C hi n es r from thi' SKV

and by (:;illing f o r n e g o t i a t i o n s t o d i s c u s s t he i s s u e s . tlei.jing, tiow-

e v e r , r t . j e c t c d n e g o t i a t i o n s a t t h a t t ime. T h e PRC made a c c u s a t i o n s

a g a i n s t ttic SIN subsequent ly on 2 9 May, 30 May, 2 J u n e , 5 June, and 7

Juni' 1978.

9

A c co r di n g t o U e i j i n g , Hanoi b a s g u i l t y of he inous p e r s e -

YO

9 1

92

9 3

9

As always , t h r Chinese were p a r t i c u l a r l y a p pr e h e ns i v e a b ou t t h e

A '30 May a r t i c l e i n Wen Wei Pao blamed: o vi e t p o s i t i o n i n V i e t Nam.

Eloscow f o r thc persecut . ions o f t h e Overseas Ch inese . The So v i e t s were

_ _ _

5 1



9 5

accused of making a s y s t r i n a t i c a t t e m p t t o s u r ro u n d t h c I’HC. Rcpor t s

w r e c i r c u l a t e d i n Hong Kong o n 4 June t h a t t h c S o v i e t s h ad c o n s t r u c t c d

a m i s s i l e complex not fa r f rom Hanoi in thc v i c i n i t y o f Hon Cay and t h a t

the S o v i e t s u e r e s u p p o r t i n g t h e 3 08 th D i v i s i o n o f t h e People’s A r m y of

Vict Nam (PAVN), a u n i t s t a t i o n e d a l on g the China border . On 5 J u n e ,

Deng Xiaoping b r i e f e d t he Japan B r o a d c a s t i n g C o r p o r a t i o n on the s t a t u s

o f t h e c r i s i s . He s a i d t h a t C h in a ha d r e du c e d i t s economic a id t o the

SRV and t h a t i t bas p r e pa r e d t o t a k e more d r a s t i c measures i f t h e

V ie tn a me se c o n t i n u e d t o h a r a s s the Overseas Cti ini .se. Ile h i n t e d t h a t tlic

S o v i e t s were b eh in d H an oi -s h o s t i l e a c t i o n s , and he r c v e a l e d t h a t Ktle

Vietnamese had n e v e r b ee n v e r y f r i e n d l y to 5:i rd t h c I’RC, e ve n d u r i n g t h e

9 G

d u r i n g t h e t imes hen C h i n a was s up pl yi ng Hanoi b i t h huge amounts of97

a i d . A no th er s p a t e o f r e p o r t s were c i r c u l n t c d i n Hong Kong on 7 J u n e ;

t h es e a s s e r t e d t h a t t h e S o v i e t s had been u s i n g t h e form er American base

a t Cam Kanh Bay.98

Why d i d t h e PRC u n d e r t a k e a q ua ntu m e s c a l a t i o n of i t s s i g n a l s - - i n

v olu me , i n i n t e n s i t y , and i n n e g a t i v i t y - - a t t h i s t ime? Bei . j ing f e l t

i t s e l f u n d e r c o n s i d e r a b l y i n c r e a s e d s t r e s s i n t h ree m a j o r a r e a s .

T h e f i r s t mat ter has t h a t o f t h e Overseas Chinese . F o r B e i j i n g ,

H a n o i - s m a l t r e a t m e n t o f i t s e t h n i c C h in e s e p o p u l a t i o n a mo un te d t o

n o t h i n g l e s s t h a n a h i gh l y v i s i b l e , p u b li c s l a p in the f a c e of t h e P HC.

The Chinese l e ad e r sh ip pe rce ived s ev e r a l e l ement s i n Hano i ’s campa ign .

F i r s t , i t u a s i n s t i g a t e d by t h e S o v i e t U ni on t o a l i e n a t e Ha no i fr o m

B e i j i n g s o t h a t Moscow co ul d become t h e sole p a t r o n o f t he SRV. T h i s

would enable t h e S o v i e t s b oth t o g a i n g r e a t e r i n fl u en c e i n V i e t Nam and

t o f l a n k Ch in a t o t h e s o u t h . S e co n d , H an oi was t r y i n g t o i n f l a m e h a t r e d

f o r a n d s u s p i c i o n o f China t h roughou t t h e c o u n t r i e s o f S o u t h e a st A s i a ,

a l l of whom had lar g e Overseas Chinese mi n or i t i e s . Th is would open t h e

5 2



I 0 0

d o ~ > r or V i ~ t a m t o d u m i n a t c t lw r e g i o n . T h i r d , t h e c o m b i n a t i o n o f

t hc f i r s t Ccc: p o i n t s c a s e t h r ? SIN i n the r o l e of "thr Cuba o f A s i a . "

Jus t a s Moscok a n d Havana were i n c o l l a b o r a t i o n t o d om in at e L a t i n

A me ri ca an d f l a n k t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , so t o o were Moscow and llanoi i n

c o l l u s i o n t o do m in a t c S ou t h e as t Asia a nd f l a n k C h i n a.

The> second niat tcr was t h a t of Cambodia. Viet Nam was now openly

a nd b r a z e n l y t r y i n g t o s u b v e r t a g ov er nm en t a l l i e d t o C h i n a . Aga in , thc

P R C l e a d e r s p er c w iv e d t h i , s a s n s l a p i n t h e f a c e of C h i n a .

The t h i r d m a t t i ~ rhas t h a t o f t h e e v c r i n c r e a s i n g p h y si c a l p r e s e n ce

01 t h c ? S o v i e t IJ ni on i n t he SKV. 'There n o r bas t h e r e a l d an ge r o f a

s i g n i f i c a n t s u pe r po c er m i l i t a r y o c c u p a t i o n on C h in a ' s s o u t h e r n b o r d e r .

R c i j i . n g p e r c e i v e d a n i n s i d i o u s S o v i e t s t r a t e g y . Moscor would en c o u r a ge

Vietnamese xenophob ia s o t h a t Hano i wou ld become i s o l a t ed from t h c

i i i t t ~ r n a t i o n n l om munity :ind r o u l d g e t b o gg ed down i n h o s t i l i t i e s w i t h

i t s n e i g h b o r s . l n t e r n a l l y , t h e V i ec na m es c e co no my w ou ld be i n a

s t inmolas , r h i l c , e x t e r n a l l y , Viet N a m would be engaged i.n p r o t r a c t c d

b i - u s h - f i r e wars. Thi s would make l l ano i doub l y dependen t o n Moscow.

V i v t N a m w ou ld r e q u i r e a i d b o t h t o p r o p up i t s dom est ic economy and t o

p u r s w i t s i m p e r i a l i s t wars; a n d , s inc e no o t h e r c o u n t r y wo ul d s u p p o r t

V i c t Naru, i t c ou ld t u r n o nl y t o Noscor.

A t t h i s t ime t h e C h i ne s e would a p p e a r t o h a ve a c t e d i n a manner

t h a t H o l s t i d e s c r i b e s as d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g u n d e r s t r e s s . 'The I'KC

dc c i s ion-makers f e l t t h a t C h i na ' s n a t i o n a l i n t e r e s t s h ad b ee n c h a l le n g e d

and t h a t t h ~ y ould l o s e f ac e O K c r e d i b i l i t y i f t he y d i d no t c ou n te r

r a p i d l y .

rc.sponded w i t h a s e r i e s of s i g n a l s of i n c r e a s e d v o lu me a nd i n t e n s i t y t o

t ietisr H ano i f ro m c o n t i n u i n g a l o n g a n u n a c c e p t a b l e c o u r s e .

They f r l t t h e i r r an ge o f o p t i on s t o be s h r i n k i n g . T h e y

1 0 1

5 3



E s c a l a t i n g A t t a c k s , Mid J u n e

t o M i d J u l y 1978

l i e i j i n g L a u n c h e d i t s s e c on d m a j o r b a r r a g e a g a i n s t H an oi o n 9 J u n e .

T he F o r e i g n M i n i s t r y of the PRC a c c u s e d the SRV o f l y i n g a b o u t i t s

p e r s e c u t i o n o f t h e O v e r s e a s C h i n e s e , o f m i s r e p r e s e n t i n g C h i n a - s o b j e c -

t i v e s i n C am b od ia , a n d of s t i r r i n g u p a n i m o s i t y a g a i n s t C h i n a .

was c o n d e m n e d f o r i t s b a r b a r o u s t r e a t m e n t of e t h n i c Chinese i n Viet Nam.

O n t h e o t h e r h a n d , t he Ch inese h a d n o t y e t a b a n d o n e d a l l p o s i t i v e ap-

p r o a c h e s . T he F o r e i g n M i n i s t r y a l s o c a l l e d f o r t a l k s s i t h the V i e t n a m e s e

H an o i

102t o t r y t o s e t t l e some of t h e p r o b le m s o f the O v e r s e a s C h i n e s e . Lob-.

l e v e l m e e t i n g s were, i n f a c t , c o n v en e d on 1 3 J u n e 1 9 7 8 , b u t b r o k e d o w n

s o o n w i t h o u t a c c o m p l i s h i n g a n y t h i n g .

0 3

J u ne a n d J u l y o f 1 9 7 8 were c h a r a c t c r i z c d by c h a r g e s a n d c o u n t e r -

c h a r g e s , b y b i t t e r r e c r i m i n a t i o n s on b o t l l s i d e s . T h e C h i n es c s e r c n o

l o n g e r o b l i q u e i n e x p r e s s i n g t h e i r c o n c e r n s . A f t e r t h e a s s a u l t o E 9

J u n e 1 9 7 8 , t h e C h i n e s e i s s u e d s i g n i f i c a n t w a r n i n g s t a H a n o i o n 1 7 J u n e ,

2 1 J u n e , 1 2 J u l y , a n d 17 J u l y . 'The V i e t n a m e s e r e s p o n d e d w i t h a

p r o p a g a n d a v o l l e y of t h e i r osn, b e g i n n i n g o n 20 J u n e .

1 0 4

T h e c e n t r a l theme

b a s t h a t of Khmer R o u g e g e n o c i d e w i t h t he i m p l i c a t i o n t h a t t h e C h i n e s e

1 0 5were i n v o l v e d .

In a d d i t i o n t o t h e g r o w i n g war of w o r ds , m ore t a n g i b l e d e v c lo p m e n t s

were o c c u r r i n g . S p o r a d i c e x c h a n ge s o f f i r e be g an a l o n g t he S i n o -

V i e t n a m e s e b o r d e r a t l e a s t a s e a r l y a s 2 7 J u n e . On 3 J u l y B e i j i n g

c u t o f f a l l C h i n e se a i d t o t h e SRV. M ost s i g n i t i c a n t w a s t h e SRV-S

j o i n i n g t h e C o u n c i l f o r M u t ua l Ec on om ic A s s i s t a n c e (CMEA, COMECON) i n

l a t e J u n e o f 1 97 8. T h i s was a n e s p e c i a l l y r e v o l t i n g d ev e l o p m e n t f o r

the C h i n e s e .

106

1 0 7

108

I t r e p r e s e n t e d a t r i u m p h f o r M oscow , f o r i t b o u n d H a n o i



i o r m a l l y i n t o t l i (2 I < n s t I ,:u ro pe an C om m un is t p l a n n i n g s t r u c t u r e . t b n c e -

t ‘ o r tl i , i i a n o i ’ s ~ c o n o m i c i l n n s rcould h a v f t o be c o o r d i n a t e d w i t h a n d

a p p r ov c d by t h r S o v i e t s . As f o r t h e SKV, r e g u l a r a i d a n d t r a d c w a s n ow

a s s u r e d , g i v i n g H a n oi a t r e e r h an d i n p u r s u i n g i t s f o r e i g n p o l i c y o b j r c -

t i v c s i n t h c r e g i o n .108

T L i s i n s t r u c t i v e t o ex a m in e ho b H an o i was r e a c t i n g t o t h e p r e s -

sllres t h a t wlire b u i l d i n g u p . How were t h e V i e tn a m e se r e s p o n d i n g t o t he

C h i n e s e s i g n a l s ’ ? D u r i n g .Junt 1978 thc P o l i t b u r o o f the v i e t Nam Corrn~u-

n i s t P a r t y ( V C P ) d i :ve lope d a s t r a t e g y t o c o p e w i t h t h e c r i s i s .

F i K S ~ , h t , PKC w a s c o n i i r m e d a s V i e t Na m’s n u m b e r - o n e e n ~ m y . H a n o i

p c‘ rc (.i ve d C h i n a ’ s o b j e c t i v r t o b e t h e d o n ii n aL i o n o f a l l S o u t h t x a s t A s i : ~ .

S c ~ c o n d , t h t s SRV I ?nders p e r c e i v e d C am b od ia t o be C h i n a - s c a t ’ s paw i n

S o ~ i t i e o s tAsi.a a n d d e c i d e d t h a t t h e Ca m bo dia n t h r e a t t o SKV i n t e r r s t s

h.id be c om e y o gr c sa t t h a t d i r e c t V i e t n a m e se m i l i t a r y a c t i o n s h o u l d be

t . l ke r i t o t o p p l t , Lhi Khiricr Rouge r e g i m e . T h i r d , t l i ~ e c i s i o n b a s inade t o

o r i e n t the SKV e c onom y € o r a new b a r a nd t o d e f e r d o m e s t i c r e c o n s t r u c -

t i o n u n t i l t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l c r i s i s h ad s u b s i d e d . F o u r t h , t o a c c o m p l i s h

t h i s i t wou1.d b e n e c e s s a r y t o g e t f u l l S o v i e t b a c k i n g . F i f t h , a t t h e

10‘)

same t ime, l la i io i ~ o u l d u r s u e a n o f f e n s i v e

p o l i t i c a l s u p p o r t . C e n t r a l t o t h i s e f f o r t

p r o v e r e l a t i o n s w i t h t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s and

T h e e v e n t s a € J u n e a nd J u l y 1 9 7 8 show

t o b ro a d e n i t s i n t e r n a t i o n a l

b o u l d b e a c a mp a ig n t o i m -

ASEAN.

t h a t t h e P R C ’ s e c f o r t t o

1 LO

d c t t , r t he SKV f ro m t a k i n g f u r t h e r a c t i o n s t h a t B e i j i n g c o n s i d e r e d

t h r t 3 a t e n i n g t o C h i n e s e i n t e res t f i h ad n o t b e en v e r y s u c c e s s f u l . H an oi

h a d no^ r e a c t e d t o C h i n n - s s i g n a l s i n t h e way t h a t t h e P K C l e a d e r s h ad

l io pr d t h e y w o u ld . I n s t e a d o f p e r c e i v i n g C h i n a ‘ s a l a r m w i t h S o v i e t

t ? x p a n s i . o n i s m i n S o u t h e a s t Asia a n d C h i n a ’ s c o n c e r n w i t h l o s s or f a c e d u e

io t h e m i s t re : i ti i l t n t 01 O v e r s e a s C h in e s e i n Viet Nam ant t h e t h r e a t e n e d

5 5



over th row of a n allied government i n Cambodia , l l ano i i n t c rp re t ed

Ilc i j i i i g ' s s i g n a l s a s i n d i c a t o r s t h a t t h e PRC i V a s a d v a n c i n g t h e t r a d -

i t i o n a l C h i n e s e o b j e c t i v e o f t u r n i n g S o ut h e as t i\ si a i n t o a t r i b u t a r y

r e g i o n . l n s h o r t , Han oi p e rc ei .v e d n e i j i n g t o bc w o r k i n g d i r e c t l y

a g a i n s t V ie tn am es e i n t c r e s t s . 'The l e a d e r s i n l la no i a l s o c a n be seen t o

b e r e a c t i n g in the f a s h i o n d e s c r i b e d by H o l s t i a s d e ci s io n -m a ki r ig [u nd er

s t r e s s . They saw the need € O K q u i c k a c t i o n . T h e y p c r c e i v e d t h e i r

a l t e r n a t i v e s as becoming ever fe br r i n number. 'They became co nv inc ed

t h a t more d r a s t i c a c t i o n was r e q u i r e d . T h e i r communicat ions werc i.n-

c r e a s i n g l y v i t u p e r a t i v e . Th ey s u r r e n d c r c d nluctl o i t h r i r own freedom of

a c t i o n by e n t a n g l i n g t h e m s el v e s furlher w i t h a n o u t s i d e power, v i z . t he

S o v i e t U ni on .

Con tending-and Ne go t ia t in g

Mid Ju ly t o October 1978

O n 19 Ju ly 1978 , t h e F o r e i g n M i n i s t r y o f the PKC c a l l e d u p o n t h e

111

SRV t o e n t e r i n t o n e g o t i a t i o n s a t the v i c e - m i n i s t e r i a l l e v e l . Tlirec

d a y s l a t e r H an oi a c c e p t e d . l t a p p e ar e d t h a r b ot h s i d e s were w i l l i n g t o

make one more e f f o r t a t r c c o n c i l i ac i o n .

T h e d e l e g a t i o n s m e t i n Hanoi on 8 Au gu st 1 97 8. I n i t i a l l y , t he

Vietnamese seemed t o be i n a more co rd ia l mood th an t h e Chinese . I n i t s

open ing K ~ I X I K ~ S , t h e S R V d e l e g a t i o n c a l l e d f o r a r e n ew al o f t h e

f r i e n d s h i p between China and Viet Nam. T h e C h i n e s e n e g o t i a t i n g t e a m

a l s o p l e a d e d € o r S i no - Vi e tn a m es e f r i e n d s h i p hu t t h e n l au n c h e d i n t o a n

a t t a c k a g a i n s t t h e SRV € O K i t s shabby t r ea tment o f Viet N am' s c t h n i c

Chinese . O n 19 A u gu s t, a t t h e t h i r d s e s s i o n of t h e t a l k s , the main

i s s u e o f t h e n e g o t i a t i o n s was a d d r e s s e d , the problem of t he Ch inese

r e s i d e n t s i n t h e SRV. B e i j i n g ' s d e l e g a t i o n p r e s e n te d a f o u r - p o i n t

1 1 2

56



I)K~lgKain t o solvi: t i l e ' [iroblem. F i r s t , t he SHV s h o u ld s t o p p e r s e c u t i n g

tlw CIii.ncssc\ and snhggliard tl1ei.r r i g h t s an d i n t e r e s t s . Second, I h n o i

sl1m)iild n o t p r u s s u r i . t h e C h i n e s e i.n V i f t Nam t o i i cc e p t V i pt l ia m l~ s r c i t -

i z e n s h i p . ' T h i r d , thi' V iu tn am es c s h o u l d m ake e v e r y e C f o r t t o r e t u r n

d i s p l a c e d Chinrse in V i < t Nam t o t h e i r o r i g i n a l homes w i t h o u t d i s c r i n i -

i n n t i o n . B ei jj .i ig w a n te d p a r t i c u l a r l y t h o s e C h i n e s e who were camped

n l l l n g th( Pl{(:-SKV bo rdc, r t o go b a ck t o t h e i r ho me s. F o u r t h , H an oi

sho i i l d a c c rp t back t l ios , Chi nes e who had f l e d V i c t Nam h i i t who w a n t r d t o

b e r r p a t r i a r : i ~ d . TIiV Vib?tiiemes(: s h o u l d r e s e t t l e t h e s e p e o p le r i t h o l t

tai<irig; a n y r k , t r i b i i t i v g l ~i c t i o n s a g a i n s t th em. 'The Ctiinesr bere c teart ,

i n d i c a t i n g t h e s t r a i n s t h a t t h e se re Sugees- -nor numbe r i ng a bou t

2(10,1100- -ctsr( pl : i c ing on PKC r e S o L l r C < + S .

r(. t .c ted tli( se Cliiiiese dwna nds . 'They wore e s p e c i a l l y i nc e ns c d b y the

p r o p o s i t i o n t h a t t h c y r e p a tr i .i i te t h o s c C h i n e s e who had a l r e a d y l c f t

t h e i r homes . Ha noi Cel t t h a t i t , t o o , was s u f f e r i n g an cconomic

biirdcn broi lght on by t h e r e fu g e e s i t u a t i o n .

I I :I

T h e V ie tn a me se w g o t i a t r ) r s

I 1 4

A f t e r an ot t ic , r s e s s i o n o f f r u i t l e s s t a l k s , t h e C hi ne se s i g n a l l e d

tlic ir d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n by r c c a l li n g t h e i r c h i e f n e g o t i a t o r , Z ho ng X id o ng ,

f , > rc o n s u l t a t i o n : : o n 28 Augus t . O n 1 2 S e p te m be r t h e C h i n r s e i n ii

~:itht r iiiorth c o n c i l i a t o r y t o n e u r g e d t h e V i e t n a me s e t o s e t t l e t h e O v e r -

s e a s Ch in es (, p r o bl e m t h r o u g h t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f C hi n a ' s f o u r - p o i n t

program. Tlie PRC d e l e g a t i o n b a n t c d t h e SRV, a t l c a s t a s a s t a r t , t o

I 1 6

g u a r a n t t ? e the r i g l i t s of t h o s e C h i n e s e s t i l l r e s i d e n t i n Vice N a n .

Wheii t h c Vi c t na me sr t e mp or i z e d , t ho Ch i ne s e b e c a m e mo re ad am an t. 'Two

niorc, s e s s i w i s were he ld- . -on 19 Se p t e mbe r a nd on 26 SeptembeK--but the

o p p i i r t u n i t y a p p e a r e d t o h av e been l o s t . T h e se l a s t two m e e t i ng s w r e

marked b y b i t t e r a c c u s a t io n s r a t h e r t ha n b y a ny c o n s t r u c t i v c

1 1 5





14 Se p t e mbe r 1978. 'This was two d a y s n t t e r t he f a i l u r e o f t he s i x t h

r e . ; n i o n o f t h e S i n o - V i e t n a m e s e t a l k s . At: t h a t mt et:in): t h e Chi ne se had

t r i ( d t o be a s m o d e r a t e as t he y f e l t t h e y c o u l d , b u t t hc V i e t na me s c ha d

n o r responded f a v o r a b l y . The 1 4 S e pt e mb e r b r o a d s i d e a c c u s e d t h e SKV of

be i n g s ys t c ma t i c n l l y on1 .i - Chi ne se a nd a n t i - Ca mbod ia n . Ue i j i n ) : ma i n-

ta inc .>d t h a t I lanoi r a s l y i n g i n i t s a s s p r t i o n s t h a t t h e P R C was u s i n g the

O v e r s e a s C h i n e s e a s somi: s o r t of f i f t h column. The PRC b l a me d t he

1 2 2Sov i e t Un i on f o r s t i r r i n g u p a l l t h i s t r o u b l e . O n t h e same d a y t h e

1 2 3

Chincse conduc t<?d a r a i ( l a c r o s s t h e b o r de r i n t o V i < t Nan].

no t t i s i de s scranihlad for f o r e i g n s u p p o rt . I n J u l y 1978 t he V ie l -

na inew began a campaign t o r o o t h e U n i t ed S t a t e s . H an oi d r o p p e d i t s

demar~d f o r r ~ c o n s t r u c t i o n i d an d o l € e r e d t o a s s i s t t tw U n i t e d S t a t e s

s t a r c h f o r t h e remai.ns o f i t s m i s s i n g i n a c t i o n . The SRV w e n s o u g h t t o

124at t r a c t h m i> ri ca n b usi n( s :j i n t e r e s t s u i t l i p r o mi s e s of l u c r a t i v e d ~ a l s .

l i e i j i n g , h o b e v e r , h e l d a l l o f t h e a c e s k i t h r e g a r d t o t h e Am er ic an

c o n n ( ? c t i o n . 'She c on su ni mn ti on of d i p l o m a t i c r e l a c i o n s w i t h t he PRC w a s

W i ~ s h i n g t o r i ~ sr imer) . g o a l i n A s i a a t t h a t t ime. ASEAN a l s o b r c i i m e :I

pri.nic t a r g e t f o r i mp ro ve d r e l a t i o n s . H e rr t o o t h c P K C was a b l e t o

011t d i s t ance t hi SI<V. C h i na ' s b i g g e s t f o r e i g n p o l i c y S L I C C ~ S S o f t h e

sunmwr of I 9 7 8 r n s t h e t r e a t y o f p e ac e an d f r i e n d s h i p i t c o n c l u d e d w i t h

J a p a n . The t r e a t y was s i g n e d o n 12 A u g u s t , and t h e i n s t r u m e n t s o f

r a t i f i c a t i o n w c r e r xc ha nge d on 2 2 Oc t obe r 1978 . O f p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t

was t h e i n c l u s i o n i n t h e t r e a t y of t h e a n t i - h e g e m o n y c l a u s e d i r t . c t e d

a g a i n s t t h e S o v i e t U ni on .

I 2 5

I 2 6

Tho p e r i o d of t h e l a t e summer a nd e a r l y f a l l of 1 9 7 8 was marked by

the not u n t y p i c a l t a c t i c i n m odern i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s o f s i m u l t a -

n e o u s n e g o t i a t i n g a nd E i .g ht in g . T h r S i n o - Vi e t n a me s e t a l k s d i d n o t

59





O n I0 Novwahcr, Hen Mi.n K i Uao p u b l i s h e d i i n t .diLor ia1 condemninp.

S ~ J Vt , I- V i c cnanw :ii’ c o 1l u i on i n p< rpt: t r a t i np, viir io us borda K i n c i detit s .L t harncd L ~ ~ I L:hc “ C hi u e se p e o pl e a r e d e t e r mi n e d t o s a f e g u a r d t l i c i r

s o v e r e i g n t y a n d territorial i n t e g r i t y and h i l l never alloc t h e r e c u r -

r e n c e o f S I I C ~ I i n c i d e n t s . . W do not want a n i n c h of a n o t h e r c o u n t r y ’ s

t e r r i t o r y , arid he do not: a l l o w a n y c o u n t r y t o o c cu p y an i nch of o u r

1 8t e r r i t o r y .I’

__

On 13 I)t cemb( r Vice Premier L i X ia n ni an a s s e r t e d t h a t “Cltina’s

f o r t r oa r nnc r Iiws i t s I m it :s an d t h e V ie tn a nw sc a u t h o r i t i e s a r c d e l u d i n g

t l t m s ; e l v c s b y t h i n k i n ] ; t h a t we a r e weak and can bc b u l l i e d . ”

I 2 9

O n 2 4 Ueccmhrr R e n Min Ri Bao p ii b li s he d a n e d i t o r i a l t h a t a c c u s c d__ .- --

the' X V Of 1Nlki.Ilg a t t a c k : ; on C h i n f s e tr?KKitoKy k i t h the s u p p o r t 1 tile

Sovir,:t Union. ‘ P h c ~ d i t o r i a l a rned t h a t t h e PRC “ w i l l n o t a t t a c k u n l e s s

i t . i ; a t t a c k e d . Dut i f i t i s a t t a c k e d , i c w i l l c e r t n i n l y

c o i ~ i ie r a t a ck .1 3 0

‘Tha t the Vie tnamese kcre t a k i n g l i t t l e c o g n i z a n c e o f t he se s i g n a l s

h.ps ma de e v i de n t b y t h e s e c o n d g r e a t s h o ck . On 2 5 December 1978, tht.

Viftnamesc army i .nvadcd Cambodia w i t h t h e i n t e n t i o n of c o n q u e r i n g t h e

c o u n t r y . I l y 7 J a n u a r y 1 9 7 9 , Phnom P e n h h a d f a l l e n . O n 8 J ~ I ~ u ~ I K ~

Peo ple ’ s Ri volu t ionn ry Commi t tce un de r Heng Samr in was s e t u p a s t h e neb

govcrnmcnt v f Cambodia. O n 9 Ja nl ia Ky V i e t na me s e t r o op s l a unc he d an

o f f e n s i v e in w v s t e r n C m ib o di a t o c o m p l e t e t h e i r c o n q u e s t of t he who l e

c o u n t r y .

1 3 1

Be i j i ny , nolu p e rc t ?i ve d t h e w o r s t - c a s e s c e n a r i o a s ha v i ng come t o

p a s s : China h:ld b w n f l. an ke d t o t h e s o u t h b y t h e S o v i e t s , a nd t h e S K V

h ad t a k e n c o n t r o l of a l l I n d o c h i n a . T h e PRC ha d be e n i gnomi n i o us l y

i n s i i l t e d i n Moscow, and i t s i n t e r e st s an d c r e d i b i l i t y had b e en o p e n l y

c h a t l t ’n g e d i n S o ii t li e as t A s i a . T he C h i n e s e l e a d e r s h i p h ad s i g n a l l e d

6 1



H a no i r e p e n t e d l y d u r n g Noveinbe r a n d D e c c m b c r , e s p e c i a l I y e m p h a s i z i n g

t h e i r c o n c e r n a b o u t t h e S o v i e t d a n g e r ; b u t t h i s had r a i l e d t o d e t e r the

V i r t n am L :+ e .

P r e p a r i n g f o r War, J a n u a r y t o

>lid F e b r u a r y 1 9 7 9

On 31 D e ce mb er 1 9 7 8 B e i j i i i g r c c a l l t ? d i t s a m b a s s a d o r t o t h e SRV f r o m

1 3 2

H a n o i . On 4 J a n u a r y 1 9 79 , t h e C h i n e s e a c c u s e d t h e V i e t n a m e s e o r

I 3 3f r e n z i e d p r o v o c a t i o n s . " I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e t h o s h o c k s o f November

,

ant1 D c cc m bc r, t h e S i n o - V ic t n a m e s c b o r d e r Iiad s o n t i m i c d t o r o i l r c l e -

t i o n s , w i t h i n c i d e n t s i lolr o c c u r r i n g d a i l y ; a n d t h o O v e r s e a s Chinese

p r o b l e m s h o w e d 110 s i g n s of a b a t i n g .

c o n t e m p l a t i n g bar .

By t h i s t i m e the P R C was s e r i o l l s l y

T h e PRC h a d m a n a g e d I n u m b er of d i p l o m a t i c s u c c e s s e s t h r o u g h o u t the

k o r l d i n 1 9 7 8 , i n d e e d , f a r m or e t h a n t t ic SRV. Ch ie f among t h e se s u c -

c e s s ~ ~ere the t r e a t y k i t h J a p a n i n A u g u s t , t h e i n c r e a s e d g o o d b i l l

t o w a r d C h i n a g e n e r a t e d i n ASEEAN a n d E u r o p P , a n d t h e a p p r o a c h O L f o r m a l

d i p l o m a t i c r e l a t i o n s w i t h t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s t o be i n s t i t u t e d on I Jan-

u a r y 1 9 7 9 .

d i a t e a d v a n t a g e , o r so t h o u g h t som e i n E e i j i n g . T h e PKC l e a d e r s h i p u a s

p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t e r e s t e d i n s e c u r i n g t h e s u p p o r t of t h e U n i te d S t a t e s a nd

J a p a n i n i t s d i s p u t e k i t h t h e SKV.

or was the time t o t u r n som e o f t h e s e s u c c e s s e s t o i m m e -

D en g X i a o p i n g ma d e his " t r i u m p h a l t o u r " of t h e U n i te d S t a t e s from

2 8 J a n u a r y t o 4 F e b r u a r y 1 9 7 9 .

k a r n i n g s t o H a no i . Hc h op ed t o p r o j e c t a t L e a st t he i m a g e ,)f us s u p p o r t

f o r his s i g n a l s t o t h e V i e t n a m e s e , k h o a t t h i s time were also s t i l l

h o p i n g t o w i n s om e s y m p a t h y f r o m W a s h i n g t o n .

W h i l e i n A ir le r ic a h e i s s u e d s e v e r a l

6 2



On 10 . lanuary 1 9 7 9 , Dellg aSSl?Kted, "We n eed t o a c t a p p r o p r i a t e l y ,

w1 , ciinnot: i i l o w Vietnam t o r u n u i l d e v e ~ y w h e ~ e . n t he i n t e r e s t o f

c o r l d peiicp an d s t a b i l i t y a nd in t h e i n t e r e s t o f O U T own coun t ry , we may

b e f o r c r d t o d o what we do n o t l i k e t o do."

133

L a t e r t h a t day Uenq mai n t a i ne d t h a t "China would n o t h e s i t a t e t o

s h o u l d ~ r hc n e c e s s a r y s a c r i f i c e s t o u ph ol d i n t e r n a t i o n a l j u s t i c e a nd

t h e l o n g - t e r m i . n t l r e s t s o f world p ea ce and s t a b i l i t y . "

I34

O n 31 J a n u a r y n e n g issued h i s m ost c c t e b r a t r d of w a r n i n g s : "I f ce

don'^ t t .ach them somi necessary l e s s o n s , i t j u s t w o n ' t d o . . . . I can

t i . 11 you t h a t c h a t t h e C h i ne s e p e op l e s a y c o u n t s . . . . Any a c t i o n t a k e n

b:r t h e Chinese i s t h ro ug h c a r e f u l c o n s i d e r a t i o n . W k i l l n o t t a ke an y

r.ish a c t i o n . A s to wha t measu re s we u i l l a d o p t , we a re s t i l l s t u d y i n g

t lw p rob Leni."

1 3 5

O n h i s r e t u r n iron1 t h e U n it ed S t a t e s , Deng Xiaop ing m a d c a bri1.r

s t o p - o v e r v i ; i t t o Japan ( 6 - 8 February 1 9 7 9 ) . On 7 F e b r u a r y De ng a g a i n

a s s o r t e d t l i ; i t "Vietnam must b e pun i shed for i t s e x p a n s i o n i s t a c t i o n

against Cari ihodia . . . a c t i o n w h i c h h a s be en i n s t i g a t e d by t h e S o v i e t

Union. 'I

I36

Deng h;id pu t ' Tokyo and Wash ing ton i n an uncom fo r t ab l e po s i t i on .

B ot h w er e e x t r a o r d i n a r i l y e a g e r for good r e l a t i o n s w i t h t h e PHC; a n d ,

t h e r e f o r e , n e i t h p r w an te d t o do a n y t h i n g t o a n t a g o ni z e t h e C h i n e s e .

[ i sn~ ; p l aye d t h i s t o the h i l t . I n August 1978 he h a d b e e n s u c c n s s f u l in

g:t?t~:ing t h e J a p a ne s e t o a c c e p t t h e a n t i- h eg e mo n y c l a u s e i n t h e Japan-PRC

1:re;ity. #ow, he f o l l o k e d w i t h a n t i- H a no i . s i g n a l s f r om t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s

a n d Japan .

C h in es e p u n i t i v e e x p e d i t i o n a g a i n s t Viet Nam; b u t , on t h e O t h e r h a n d ,

iboth f e l t i t n c c e s s a r y t o t a k e g r e a t p a i n s t o be v er y d e l i c a t e i n

d x p r e ss i n g t h e i r o p p o s i t i o n t o t h e C h i n e s e l e a d e r s h i p . H a n oi , t o o , had

Neither Washington nor Tokyo s u p p o r t e d t h e p r o p o s i t i o n u f a

63



been m a k i n g o v e r t u r e s t o To ky o a n d W a s h i ng t o n t o w a r d t h e e nd o r 1 9 i 8 ,

a nd D eng h o pe d t h a t t h e a p p e a r a n c e t h a t J a p a n a n d t h e U n i te d S t a t e s were

b a c k i n g ttie PKC w o u l d cause ttie V i e t n a m e s e t o t a k e i-I m o r e m o d e r a t e

c o u r s e . I t d i d n o t .

T h r o u g h o u t J a n u a r y a n d i n t o F e b r u a r y , t h e PRC m ov ed l a r g e n u m b e r s

1 3 7

A c c o r d i n g t o A g en ce F r a n c e Prcsse-- __ - 9o f t r o o p s t o t h e b o r d e r r e g i o n .

o n 8 F e b r u a r y , i m m e d i a t e l y f o l l o w i n g D en g -s r c t u r n f ro m t h e U n i c e d

S t a t e s a n d J a p a n , t h e C h i n e se d e c i d e d t o go t o w a r w i t h the SRV. A

u n i f i e d c om nand u n d e r t h c l e a d e r s h i p o f G e n e r a l X i S h i y o u ( C o m m a n d e r ) ,

G e n e r a l Yang U e z hi ( D e p u t y C o m ma nd er ), a n d G f n e r a l Z h an g D i n g f a ( C h i e f

o f S t a f f ) & a s e s t a b l i s h e d . I n c o n c e r t b i t h t h i s , 1.i X i a n n i a n i s s u e d

o ne mo r e v e r b a l G a m i n g t o t h e V i et n am e s f t o h ee d a l l o f t h e p r e v i o u s

s i g n a l s t h a t t h e C h in e s e ha d s e n t .

138

I 3 9

A l t h o u g h t h e C h i n e s e were s i g n a l l i n g t h a t t he e l e v e n t h h o u r b a s a t

h a n d , t h e Vietnamese d o u b t e d t h a t B e i j i n g w ou ld a c t u a l l y l a u n c h a l a r g e -

s c a l e m i l i t a r y a t t a c k a g a i n s t t h e SIIV. F i r s t , t h e V i e t n a m e s e c o u n t e d on

t h e i r t r e a t y w i t h t h e S o v i e t s t o d e t e r t h e C h i n e s e . S e c o n d , t h e con-

q u e s t o f C am bo dia w as a l r e a d y a f a i t a c c t m p l i . A C h i ne s e a t t a c k b o u l d

n o t be o f a n y m i l i t a r y a s s i s t a n c e now t o t h e K h m e r R ou ge . T h i r d , H a n o i

k n e w t h a t t h e p r i m a r y c o n c e r n o f t h e PRC was i t s F o u r X o d e r n i z a t i o n s .

T h e SKV l e a d e r s d o u b t e d t h a t C h in a wo ul d r i s k s e t t i n g h ac k i t s e c o n o m i c

p r o g ra m s by e n t e r i n g a c o s t l y w a r. F o u r t h , H a noi w a s well a w a r e of t h e

d e b i l i t a t i n g e f f e c t t h a t t h e C u l t u r a l R e v o l u t i o n h a d h ad on t h e C h i n e s e

m i l i t a r y e s t a b l i s h r e n t . T hc SRV l e a d e r s d o u b t e d t h a t t h e C h i n e s e u o u l d

t h r m t h e PLA a g a i n s t a t e c h n o l o g i c a l l y s u p e r i o r a nd g r e a t l y m or e

e x p e r i e n c e d V i e t n a m e s e a rm e d f o r c e b e f o r e t h e PLA ha d b e e n m o d e r n i z e d .

F i f t h , a l t h o u g h H a n o i r a i l e d a g a i n s t a Bei j ing-Tokyo-Washin&eon a x i s ,

64



t h c V i < t n n n i e s ? l.c;iders k n r h t h a t C h i n a tiad no s e r i o u s o u t s i d e s u pp o r t

140

tot. p u r s u i n g u war agai ,ns t tho SKV. Rased on r e a s o n i n g s u c h as t h i s ,

t ln ii oi f e l t no c o m p u l s i o n t o make s i g n i f i c a n t p o s i t i v e g e s t u r c s t o

I k L j i n g .

Onc e a ga i n tlie V i et n am e se ha d m i s c a l c u l a t e d . O nc e a g a i n t h e y h ad

f a i l e d t o t ak e i .nt0 a c c ou n t k i j i n g ‘ s f ra me o f r e f e r e n c e . Oncc a g a i n

t h e y h a d noL h e t ? d i ? d Chir i a’ s s i gn a l s . Above a l l e l s e t h e P R C f e a re d t h a t

t h e USSR w a s g a i n i n g a s i g n i f i c a n t g e o p o l i t i c a l a d v an ta ge t o C h i na - s

S O u t l l t h ro u g h th e a c t i o n s of t h e SKV. T h is co ul d no t go una ns wc r e d , i d

U e i j i n g h ad : ;i g1 1a ll t~ d t h i s c o n c e r n t o H a no i repeatedly. Not o n l y d i d

Hanoi n o t rr sp oi id p o s i t i v e l y t o B e i j i n g ’ s s i g n a l s , i t c h a l l e n g e d t h e P H C

o p a n l y b y p e r s e c u t i n g i t s e t h n i c C h i n e s e a n d b y ma kin g b e l l i c o s e s t a t ( * -

ments i n Moscow.

C h i n a , o n i t s s ide . , a l s o ha d made s e r i o u s m i s c a l c u l a t i o n s . I t s

p I i r 1c i pn l on? was t o t i e i t s e l f t o t h e o d io u s and a g g r e ss i v e Khmer Kouge

ri>girne, w h i c h p r e s e n t e d a g e n u i n e t h r e a t t o t h e SRV‘s n a t i o n a l

iiitc rcsts. B e i j i n g had a l s o u n d e r e s t i m a t e d H an oi ’s d e t e r m i n a t i o n t o

keep t h e PRC o u t o l Vietnamese a f f a i r s . ‘The Cliinesc l e a d e r s d i d n o t

s ~ c m o r e; il iz t f u l l y t h a t Viet N a m had v i r t u a l l y no a l l i e s and t h a t i t

~ ~ i ~ l dln io st h av e t o w l y on tlie S o v i e t U n i o n .

The t i n d e r - b o x PKC-SRV b o r d e r s i t u a t i o n p r e s e n t e d b o t h a p r e t e x t

a n d ii f l a s h p o in t € or a c t i v e m i l i t a r y a c t i o n . On 1 7 F e b r u a r y 1 9 7 9 , t hc

1’1.A i n v a d e d V i e L Nam. ‘She na ture of t h e r e s u l t i n g war f rom Be i . j i ng ’ s

p c r s p e c t i v e wn ; l i m i t e d an d p u n i t i v e a n d , a s s u c h , w as a c o n t i n u a t i o n of

CI1 ina.s c r i s i s ma nage men t , no t an a b e r r a t i o n f ro m i t .

6 5



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1

'Chc name o f the V i e t n a m e sc l a n d a n d p u o p l c l ias changed many

t imes o v er t h e c o u rs e o f h i s t o r y . F or c l a r i t y an d c o n s i s t e n c y , t h e

terms "Vie t Nam" and "Vie tnamese" G i l l be u s e d t h r o u g h o u t t h i s p a p e r re -

g a r d l e s s of t h e p e r io d u n d e r c n n s i d c r a t i o n u n l e s s a s p e c i f i c h i s t o r i c a l

name i s r e q u i r e d .

2

J o h n Y . C a d y , S o u t h e a s t Asia: I t s t l i . s t o r i c a 1 De ve l opme n t Nee__York: McGraw-Hill , 1 9 6 4 ) , pp. 1 6 - 1 7 .

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4Cady, pp. 1 0 4 - 0 6 .

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McAleavy, pp. 2 3 3 - 4 3 .

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f or d : H oo ve r I n s t i t u t i o n P r e s s , 1 9 7 8 ) , pp. 8 7 - 8 8 .

10

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T u r n e r . DD. 2 9 0 - 3 0 4 : a nd Ga r e tt i Po r t e r . " Vi .e tnames e Po l i c v a nd. .t he I n d o c h i n a C r i s i s , " T he T h i r d I n d o c h i n a C o n f l i c t , e d . David W.P.E l l i o t t ( B ou l de r : J e st v le u , 19811, pp. 7 2 - 7 7 . Bot h ' Tu r ne r a nd Por t e r

--t r a c e the t w i s t s and t u r n s i n S i no - Vi e tn a me s e r e l a t i o n s d u r i n g t h i sp e r i o d . T u r n e r ' s t r ea tmen t i s g e n e r a l l y mo re d e t a i l e d . T he a n a l y s i s

g i v e n here d o e s n o t follow e i t h e r s o u r c e e x a c t l y b u t d ra w s m or e onTurner t h a n P o r t e r .

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D a i l y R e p o r t , A s i a an d P a c i f i c , S u p pl e m en t , 19 Oct 79, p . 22.

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28Gareth 1 ' 0 ~ t e r . " V i e t n a m e s e Policv a n d t h e I n d o c h in a C r i s i s ,. ~ ~ .

'The T h i r d l n d o c l i in a C o n f l i c t , e d . b y D a v i d E l l i o t t ( B o u l d e r : W e s t v i e w._W S , i 9 8 i T p . 6 9 .

'Third N a t i o n a l . C o n g r e s s _ _ - -f t h e Viet Nam Workers ' Party ( H a n o i :_ _r o r c i g i i L a n g u a ge s P u b i i s h i n g H o u se , 1 9 6O ) , p. 31.

~~

3 0

:I 1

L'orter ' , p . 7 2 .

C h i n e s e A g g r e s s i o n A g a i n s t V i e t Nam: T he R o o t of t h e Problc m__.___( Ha no i . : F o r c t g n L a ng u ag e s P u b l i s h i n g Housi?, 1 9 7 9 ) , m, s p .

pp . 1-10.

32M i c h a e l R i c h a r d s o n , "How t h r F i v e S e e I n d o c h i n a , " E R ,

9 8 : 5 2 : 7 - 8 , 30 D e c e m b e r 1 9 7 7 .

3 3

S u t t t r , p . 3 3 .

6 7



34

Dev Siurarka, "The Rivals--Mosciitv's h s i a n S t r a t e g y , " m,n n : z : z & , 13 J u n + 1 9 7 5 .

35

Ken H i n K i Uao 2Y .IuI.y 1 9 7 5 .76 - '..

R e p o r t e d011

3 SepLeinbur 1 9 7 5 i n Ren Min R i Bao a n d inX i n Hua Shc.

7 -

Ren Win K i Rao 2 2 Se p t e mbe r 1 9 7 5 .

Cha lmcrs Johnson , Autopsy On P e o p l e ' s --ar (Be rke ley :

- 7

38-

U n i v e r s i t y-of C a l i f o r n i a P r e s s , 1 9 7 3 ) , passim.

39P o r t e r , p . 78. And Fr a nc o i s N i vo l o n , " V i e t n a m on the Aid

T r a i l , " FEER, 9 8 :4 9 :3 8 - 3 9 , 9 December 1 9 7 7 .40-

41

Ni v i l on , pp . 3 8 - 0 9 .

Chanda , "V i 1 t nams Economy : I E I V r i n r i L i. ? s , ' FE I< , 9b : 7 : 0 -_4 1 , 1 9 November 7 6 .

4 2

4 3SRV, "The Truth," p . 2 2 .

V i c t o r P u r c e l l , T he C h i n c se i n South? ist A s i a ( F a i r L aw n , N . J . :--Oxford UP, 1 9 5 1 ) , pp. 1 6 m 9 .

P o r t e r , p . 8 5 .

YEEK, 8 8 : 2 1 : 5 , 2 3 May 1 9 7 5 .

FEER 8 8 :2 6 :2 6 , 2 7 J u n e 1 9 7 5 .-f

W i l f r e d Bu r c hc t t , " Cr a c k i n g Down o f Sa i gon ' s Co i s p r a dor e s , " m,

4 4

4 5

4 6

47

9 0 : 4 2 : 3 1 - 3 2 , 1 7 O c t o b e r 1 9 7 5 .

4 8 FEER , 8 8 :1 5 :5 , 11 A p r i l 1 9 7 5 .

49

50

5 1

_.P o r t e r , p . 8 4 .

S u t t e r , p p . 1 6 8 - 6 9 .

E d i t h L e n a r t , "Hanoi-s I n t e r n a t i o n a l S t a g e - S e t t e r , " w ,9 0 : 4 7 : 2 2 , 2 1 November 1 9 7 5 .

5 2

Nhan Dan, 12 F e b r u a r y 7 6 ; r e : P o r t e r , p. 79.

Yi ch ae l Morrow, "Two Noig hbo rs on thr Same W a ve l e ng t h , " B53-

8 9 : 3 3 : 1 3 , 15 August 1 9 7 5 .54

FEER, 89 :3 5:5 , 29 Augus t 1 9 7 5 .

Xi n Hua She , 1 9 August 1 9 7 5 ; re : P o r t e r , p . 78.

Chanda , "Vie tnam Opt s f o r Broad Approach, " .-E E K , 9 5 : 8 : 1 8 - 2 0 , 2 5

55-

56- --

F e b r u a r y 1 9 7 7 .



57

58

5 Y

6 0

FB 1s

N1l:lrl

FUIS

_ _

F E E R , Y4:52 :5 , 24 December 1 9 7 6 .

__EEL<, 9 % : % 3 : 5 , h .June 1 9 7 6 .

__E E R , Y6:1&:5 , H A p r i l 77 .

IKcn M i r i R i Bao 2 5 Fcbr i i a ry 1977 .

FEEK, 9 5 : 1 : 5 , 7 J a n u a r y 1 9 7 7 .

F H l S ( A l l ) , 21 March 87

Nhan Da n , I 1 May 1 9 7 7 .

I ' o r t e r , p . 96.

6 1

(1 2

t13

64.-- -'

6 5

6 6

67.-

O l e I<.H o l s t i , C r i s i s , E s c a l a t i o n , War ( M o n t r e a l : Y c C i l l -___Q i t c c ,n ' s Y I J , 1 Y 7 2 ) , 111'. 2: 2-25.

. ..C h an d a, " P v ki n g E s c a l a t e s t h e W a r of Nerves , " 3, 9 : 1 :10- 1 1 ,

1; M;ircli 1 9 7 8 .

7 1

72

7 3

R en M i n R i I3a0, 10 J a n u a r y 1978 , in F U I S ( P R C ) 1 0 J a nua r y 1 9 7 8 .--l ' o r t c r , 1'. 100.

Chanda, " P r k i n p , E s c a l a t e s , " p p . 10-11 .

74Cl i i lnda , " P c k i n # E s c a l a t e s , " p p . 10-1 1 .

75

Clianda, " P e k in ) : E s c a l a t e s , " p p . 10-1 1.

7 6

-.E E K , 9 9 : 1 3 : 5 , 3 1 March 1978 .

7;

7 t

L'oKl:l?r', 11. 1 0 4 .

Sti,pht ri F i t z ge r a l d , " Pe k i ng ' s New P u l l a t t h e P u r s e - S t r in g s , "

F E E R , 100:24:111-20, 16 J u n e 1 9 7 8 .- -.i 1

80- -- --IKon M i i i K i B a o , 4 J a n u a r y 1978.

C l i a r i d ; ~ , "Comrades Cu rb t h e C a p i t a l i s t s , " _ _E E R , 100 : 15 : 1 1 - 1 2 , 14

A p r i l 1978 .

6 9



8 1

Chando, " Cho l on ' s M e r c ha n t s Fe e l t he I b r d c r l l a c k l a s h , " I ; F. EK1 0 0 :1 8 :1 0 -1 1 , j May 1 9 7 8 .

8 2

8 3

--E E R , 1 0 0 : 1 9 : . 5 , I 2 May 1 9 7 8 .

Chanda, "Cholon 's Merchants," p p . 10-11.

FEER 1 0 0 : 1 7 : 5 , 28 A p r i l 1 9 7 8 .

F B I S ( P I K ) , 2 4 Nay 1 9 7 8 .

Wen Wei Baa, I 1 Nay 7 8 , i n --KER, 1 0 0 :2 :1 2 -1 3 , 19 May 1 9 7 8 .

Wen Wei Bao, 2 2 Nay 1 9 7 8 , i n FRLS ( P R C ) , 2 4 May 1 9 7 8 .

Ole H . H o l s t i , "Thc 1 9 1 4 C a se , " A me ric an P o l i t i c a l S c i c n c e

84

5---'

8 6

87-

88- - -

Re vi e b , 5 9 : 2 : 3 6 5 - 7 8 , J u n e , 1 9 6 5 .

P o r t e r , p . 104.

X i n H u n Sti f , 2 4 May 1 9 7 8 , i n F D I S (PI<( :) , 2 4 May 1 9 7 8 .

F n l S (AP) , 25 Nay 1 Y 7 8 .

X i n Hun S h e , 26 Hay 7 8 .

F B I S M I , 6 J u n r 1 9 7 8 .

U.S., D e f e n s e I n t e l l i g e n c e A ge n cy , C h in o -V i et n am B o r d e r

8 9

Y O

9 1

9 2

- -

93- - -

9 4

Tons i ons : A Chr ono l ogy , 2 2 June 1 9 7 6 - 5 May 1 9 8 1 (Washington: D I A ,-1 9 8 2 ) , pp. 1 6 - 1 8 .

95

96

97

9 8

99

Wen Wei Pa o , 3 0 May 1 9 7 8 , i n Y B I S ( P l t C ) , 2 June 1 9 7 8 .

L'BZS ( A P ) , 5 J u n c 1978 .

FBIS (PRC), 5 J u n e 1 9 7 8 .

FBIS . W ) , 7 J u n e 1 9 7 8 .

- -

.~

On Vie t Nam's Expuls ion

L a n g u a g e s P r e s s , 1 9 7 8 ) , pp. 1 3 1 -3 8

100

C h i n e se R e s i d e n t s , ( B e i j i n g : F o r e i g n

a n d 1 6 1 - 7 0 .

On V i e t N am - s E x p u l s i o n , p p . 1 4 9 - 5 4 .

D a vi d R o n av i o, " S t r a i g h t ' T a l k From P e k i n g , " E, 00:23:10-1 I ,

-_-01

9 J u n e 1 9 7 8 .102

103

1 0 4

105

FBLS (PKC), 1 2 J u n e 1 9 7 8 .

FBIS (PRC), 26 June 1 9 7 8 .

U.S., DIA, Chi na -Vi e t na m Bor de r Te n s i on s , p p . 1 8 - 2 4 .

Nhan Dan, 2 0 June 1 9 7 8 , i n P o r t e r , p . 106 .

7 0



I 0 6

1 0 7

I o x

1:UIS (P I{< : ) , 7 J u l y 1 9 7 8 .

Fb:ER,- I O 1 : 2 8 : 5 , 14 J u l y 1 9 7 8 .

Ro1:i.r U o y e s , Moscob J o l t s I t s A l l i e s , " FEEK, 1 0 1 :3 3 :9 -1 1 , 18__I\LI~;LIS f 107 8.

109Tht Viet Nam W o r k e r s P a r t y (V WP) c h a n g e d i t s n am e t o the V i e t

Main C o m u n i s t P a r t y ( V C P ) i n D e c e m b e r 1 9 7 6 .I10

P o r t e r , p . 105. P o r t e r r e p o r t s t h e s e d a t a f r o m p e r s o n a l

interviews t V i h V C P 1 'o I i . t b i i ro m em b er s .I l l

I 1 2F B I S ( I ' I K ) , I 9 J u l y 1 9 7 8 .

7 0 . I

I

I

..-

1:UlS ( A P ) , 11 A u g u s t 1 9 7 8 ; a n d O n Viet N am 's E x p u l s i o n , p p . 2 9 -- _ _ -4 3 .

1 1 1

IFUrs (I ' l tc), 2 1 , \ u g u s t 1 9 7 8 ; a n d On V i e t N a m ' s E x p u l s i o n , p p . 5 0 -

B B I S ( P K C ) , 28 A u g u s t 1 0 7 8 .

FnrS ( I ' R C ) , 1 2 S i l p t e m b e r 1 9 7 8 ; a n d - _ _ -n Viet N a m ' s E x p u l s i o n ,

6

PI). 8 9 - 9 3 .

1 I 7

I I R

119

On i e t :. am's - x p u l s i o n , p p . 94 - 1 3 0 .

F I \I S (I 'K C ) , 27 S e p t e m b e r 1 9 7 8 .~~~

O n Viet Nam's E x p u l s i o n of C h i n e s e I l e s i d e n t s i s t h e P R C ' s

- _c o m p i l a t i i i n o f d o c um e n ts i n E n g l i s h t h a t r e l a t e t o t h e O v e r s e a s C h i n e s ep r o b l c m i n Vie t N n m . I t g i v e s B e i j i n g ' s o f f i c i a l v e r s i o n o f t h en e g o l - i a t i o n s arid t h e e v e n t s s u r r o u n d i n g t h e SRV's h o s t i l i , t y t o t h c

e t h n i c C h i n e s e r e s i . d en t i n Viet Nam.

I 2 0

I 2 1

I 2 2

1 2 3

I2A

P o r t e r , p. 108.

U.S., I)[)\,_ _ _h i n a -V i e t na m B o r d e r T e n s i o n s , p p . 2 4 - 3 3 .

__e11 M i n -i Ilao, 14 S e p t e m b e r 1 9 7 8 , i n F B IS , I 9 S e p t e m b e r 1 9 7 8 .

FIlI ; ( A P ) , 4 O c t o b e r 1 9 7 8 .

S t e p h i ? i i I l a r b c r , "No Grcen L i g h t Yet f o r Hanoi," __E E R, 1 0 2 : 4 1 : 1 1 -1 7 , 13 O c t o b e r 1 9 7 8 .

1 2 5

C h n nd a , " C h a n gi n g t h e I n d o c h i n a U a l a n c e , " E E K , 1 0 2 :5 2 :1 4 -1 5 , 29

I k c m b e r 1 9 7 8 .l2G

P o r t c r , p . 107.

7 1



1 2 7

N a ya n C li a n da , R o d n e y T a s k e r , a n d J o h n I x b i s , "A B e a r h u g from

Moscow, " EER, 1 0 2 : 4 6 : 8 - 1 1 , 1 7 N o v e m b e r 1 9 7 8 .I 2 8

Re11 M i n R i B a o , 10 N o v ei ii be r 1 9 7 8 , i n FIILS ( P K C ) , 1 3 N ov e m b er1 97 8 , q u o t e d i n D I A , C h i n a - V i e t n a m Uordfr T e n s i o n s , p. 34 .

129

I 3 0

131

132

F B IS (P R C ) , 1 4 D e c e m b er 1 9 7 8 , q u o t e d i n D I A , p . 3 7 .

FII IS ( P R C ) , 26 D e c em b e r 1 9 7 8 , q u o t e d i n D I A , p . 38 .

__EEK, 1 0 3 : 3 :5 , 1 9 J a n u a r y 1 9 7 9 .

~~~

F B I S ( A P ) , 3

1 3 3

J a n u a r y 1 9 7 9 ; a n d F B I S (PKC), 5 J a n u a r y 1 9 7 9 .

T h e Neb Y o r k

" C h i n a - s V i e t n a m War_--

D e c o m b e r , 1 9 7 9 .

I 3 4T h e Rer. Y o r k

_ _ -I35

T h e KO* Y o r k_

1 3 6

T im% , 3 1 J a n u a r y 1 9 7 9 , i n D a n ie l T r e t i a k ,

a n d i t s C o n s e q u e n c e s , " C h i n a Q u a r t e r l y , 8 0 :7 4 9 ,

T i m e s- 9

T i m e s ,__

M a i n i c h i D a i l y N eb sp . 7 4 7 .

I 3 7

31 J a n u a r y 1 9 7 9 , i n

1 F e b r u a r y 1 9 69 , i n

( T o k y o ) , 8 F e b r u a r y

C h an da , " B l i t z k r i e g on C a m b o d i a , " s

F B I S ( P K C) , 2 1 F e b r u a r y 1 9 7 9 .

P B I S ( P R C ) , 2 1 F e b r u a r y 1 9 7 9 .

P o r t e r , pp . 1 0 9- 1 1 0.

1 9 7 9 ; a n d F B I S ( AF P ) 2 1 F e b r u a r y 1 9 7 9 .I 3 8

1 3 9

140

I 're t iak, p . 743 .

T r r t i a k , p . 7 43 .

1 97 9 , i n T r e t i a k ,

1 0 3 : ? : 1 4 - 1 5 , 1 2 January

72



C h a p t e r 5

CONCLUSION

The Ue c i s i on t o Go t o War_ _

Why d id China Fi na l l y go t o war w i t h Vie t Nam 1 A numbcr o f

conditions , p revi i i l ed t h n t i m p e l l e d t h e Chinese l t sn d er s t o t a k e the s t e p s

which 1 c d t o t h r: i n v a s i o n of t h e snv i n F ~ b r u a r y f 1979.

I l c i j i n g f e l t i t s s e c i i ~ i t y n t e r e s t s were b e i n g s e r i o u s l y a nd i i r m e d i at e l y

t l l r r a t e n ( d a nd ii Inore p a s s i v e r e a c t i o n wo ul d o n l y h e i g h t t ? n t l l r t h r e a t .

G e n t ~ r i ~ l l ym d e r l i n i n y , t h i s w as a h i s t o r y of C h i n e s e c o n c e r n O V ~ K h e

s e c u r i t y o f i t s S o u th e rr l rt alms, w h ic h h ad c o n t r i b u t e d t o a long r e c o r d

o f ; i n i mos i t y be t we e n t h t C h i n e s e and t h e Vie tn amese . Second, Hanoi had

o p r n l y clial1 engc .d B r i j i n g ' s " f a c e " a nd c r e d i b i l i t y b y i t s p e r s e c u t i o n of

t h e c t h n i c C h i n c , s e i n V i e t Nam, by i t s d e l i v e r y of a n t i - C h i n e s e s p e e c h e s

i n Moscou, b y i t s p r e s s u r e on the s o u t h e r n b o r d e r of t h c P K C , and by i t s

i n v a s i o n of Cambodi a. Th i r d , t he p r e s e nc e o f a h o s t i l e s u p er p o ur r , the

S o v i e t [ I ni o n , on t h e w a n e r a i s e d t h e s t a k e s c o n s i d e r a b l y . C hi na d i d

no t v i e w Vi e t N a n nlerely a s a n o b s t r e p e r o u s r e g i o n a l p o we r, b u t r a t h e r

percc , ived i t a s p a r t o f ii g l o b a l S o v i e t m a ne uv er t o a c h i e v e a s t r a t e g i c

p n c i x l e m e n t of t h e PRC. T he C h i n e s e l e a d e r s h i p f e l t o b l ig e d t o r e a c t

t o t h i s s e t of c i r c u m st a n c e s u i t h a l i m i t e d w a r on Viet Nam.

F i r s t ,

73





‘The I ’ e r c e p t i o n s o f D e t c r r e n c e-.--__

Whi l a , , i n m ~ i i i y r t s p e c t s , CI1ina .s r e a c t i o n t o the e v e n t s of t h e 1;irt.

19;“)s was s i m i l a r t o i t s l i a n d l i n g oE t h e Kore a n a nd I nd i a n e me r ge nc i e s

iis d e s c r i b e d b y A 1 Len W h i ti n g , t h e r o we re i m p o r t a n t v a r i a t i o n s a s b p i 1 .

I n S O W nieasiirc t lw PRC had r e l i n e d i t s p o l i c y o f d e t e r r c l n c e i n t o a

I ) r t i s dc r po l i c y or c r i s i s m a na ge me nt .

t o i ~ i , q n o i t, rn woiiLd c o n sp i r e t o g a in a n a d v a n t a g e o v e r C h i n e , and the'

C h i n e s < % e a d < > r s c r c s t i l l c o n v i n c e d o r chr. i mpor t a nc e o f t i m i n g in

d e l i v e r i n g t l i c i r s i g n a l s . On the o t h e r h a n d , t h r Chi ne s c a ppe a r e d t o b r

Le,is i .mpelLrd t o a s s ume n b e l l i g e r e n t p o s t u r e , an d t h e y seemed t o bcs

w i l l i n g t o c o n s i d o r a u i d r r rangc o i o p t i o n s th a n b e f o r e i n o r d e r t o

ilchi(?vc? t t i c i r o t ) j < : c t i ve s . .

s t a g e s 0 1 t l i c . c r i s i s .

B e i j i n g s t i l l b e l i e v ed t h a t

‘This h a s e s pc c i o l l y t l l ( c a s e in t he e a r l i e r

F r o m 197‘5 t o mid-1 178 , t h e I’RC r x e r c i n r d m od e ra t io n i n d e a l i n g k i t h

Vie t Sam. T l i e Chinese seemed h i l l i n g t o t r y C o unde r s La nd Ha no i - s f r i i m t

o r r e f e r c n c e . ‘ l ‘h ry L?VBII seemed to b e h i l l i n g t o ac c ep t t h e f a c t t h a t

t:ic :ie tnamc:;e were bound t o c x h i b i t a me a s ur e of h o s t i l i t y t oh or d

C h in a . l l e i i i ng ’ s o v e r r i d i n g g o a l h a s t o prt clude t h e s p r e a d of S o v i c t

i n f l u e n c e i n t h r a r e a . To a c h ie v e t h i s t h e C h i n e s e a t t e m p t e d a b a l a n c e d

a p p r o a c h . Th ey l au n ch ed d i p l o m a t i c i n i t i a t i v e s a r ou nd t h e w o rl d.

1lei.j ing’s rand d emarche y i e l d c d s i g n i € i c a n t r e s u l t s during t I I ( . 1 9 7 0 s ,

t urn ing inany erstwtii l e enemies i n t o a t l e a s t s o n i e th i n g a k i n t o f r i en d : ; .

R t1 nl :i on s h i t h t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , J a p a n , a n d m os t of the ASEAN c o u n t r i e s

bc came a l m o s t c o r d i a l . At t h e same t i m e , t h e PRC r e d u c e d c o n s i d e r a b l y

i t s s u p p o r t €or i n s u r g e n c i e s . A s t e n s i o n s w i t h Ha no i g r e w, Be i j i n g h a s

c a r e f u l t o k e ep i t s c r i t i c i s m s o E the Vi e tna me se l ow-ke ye d a nd ob l i q ue .



The C h i nc s e o f f e r e d p o s i t i v e i n du c em e nt s t o tlie Vie tnamese and gcne ra l l y

a v o i d e d t h r e a t s . A s l a t ? a s January 1978, t he PRC has h i l l i n g t o c on-

I

ti.nue i t s aid progroin h i t h t h r SKV. I m p o r t ai i t l y, l l e i j i n g e x h i b i t e d

r e s t r a i n t , w h i c h h a d t hc e f f e c t of s l o h i n g ttir pace o r c r i t i c a l e ve nt s.

A l l of t h e s e t h i n g s c o n t r i b u t e d t o k ee p in g tlie s i t u a t i o n u nd er c o n t r o l .

117 e f f f c t , t h e PKC has b e h av i n g i n a m an ne r t h a t c o n t r i b u t e d t o s u c -

c e s s f u l c r i s i s management a s d e s c r i b e d by I i o l s t i .

Thc Chinese sah t h i s t o b e the b e s t approach fo r a number o f

r e a s o n s . O n t h e hoinc f ront , t he PRC was f aced w i t h t h o m a jo r c h a l l e n g e s

r h i c h cou ld b e inet more c ,Efcct ive ly i f C h in a ’s f o r e i g n r e l a t i o n s h er,?

s t a b l e . I n the p o l . i t i c n 1 a r e n a , t h c Chinese wen‘ fa ci ng an imminent

change i n I c a d e r s h i p , k i t h bo th Mao Zedong and Z t w u l h l a i s s r io u s l y i l l

i n Late 1 9 7 5 . l n t he economic realm, t he P R C had launchcd t h e Foiur

Moderniza t ions program i n J a n u a r y 1 9 7 5 , a nd O e i j i n g h op ed t o c o n c e n t r a t e

i t s f u l l a t t e n t i o n an d r e s o u r c e s on domes t i c deve lopment . On the i n t p r -

n a t i o n a l scene, t h e PHC had 1orgcl.y ab . j u r i ?d r evo lu t i ona ry peop l e ’ s war

a s a pr imary i ns t rument o f fo r c ig i i po l i cy and had adop t ed a more o r tho-

dox approach of i n t e r s t a t e d ip lomacy . De i j i ng has p u r s u i n g a p o l i c y o f

c u l t i v a t i n g good r e l a t i o n s w i t h t he c a p i t a l i s t r o r l d - - e s p e c ia l l y t h e

Uni ted S t a t e s and J a p an - -a n d o f p r e s e n t i n g i t s e l f as t h e m o r al l e a d e r or

t h e T h i r d World. T h i s s t ance by t h e PRC l e ad er sh ip had tbio impor ta nt

s a l u t a r y e f f e c t s . I t placed a p r e m i u m on r e s t r a i n t i n C h in a -s f o r e i g n

p o l i c y , and i t g a v e I l c i j i n g a w id or r a n g e o f n p t i o n s i n d r a l i n g w i t h

i n t e r n a t i o n a l p r o b l e m s .

On t h e o t he r hand , t h e Chinese made a s e r i ou s e r r o r i n a l l y i n g

themse lves r; i t t i the Khmer Rouge. The Pol Pot regim e an ta go ni ze d t h e

Vietnamese f r o m t h e v e r y s t a r t . The Cambodians looked upon the V i e t -

namese much a s t h e Vietnamese looked upon t h e Chinese , i . e . , from the

7 6



l ) e i - s p ' ? c t i v ~ f ii smii1ler c oun t r y wh i c h fanred b e i n g domina ted b y i t s

l a r ge r n r i ~ ~ l b o r .rile C amb od ia n l e a d e r s p e r c e i v e d t h e i r range of o p t i o n s

t o tw v e r y o a r r o b . 'The f a na t i c a l Khme r Koiige i d e o l o g y a n d t he g e n e ra 1

i s o l a t i o n oC Cambodi a f r nm t h e i n t c r na t i on a l c ommunit y e nge nd e r e d i n t h e

P O L Pot regime he c o n v i c t i o n t h a t i t s o n l y e f f e c t i v e r e s po n se t n Viet

N a n was n n c o f h o s t i l i t y . S in c e B e i j i n g r e a l l y c ou l d do l i t t l e t o c on -

tr.>L t h e Caii ibodian Communis ts , they surrendered much € t h e i r oun i n d e -

pendeiicc o f a c t i o n i n t t w r e g i o n by t h i s i . tL a d v i s e d a l l i n n c e .

'rh(, Vir~tnaiiicsc~er1 c i v e d the i r o p t i o n s t o b e f e w e r t h a n t h o s e

av a i l i l b l e t o th t : Chinc, sf . F i r s t , t he h i s t o r i c a l t r e n d was one o f

Chi.n;i .s a t t m p t i.ng t o clominatt- Vie t N a m , n o t t h e o t h e r b a y a r o u nd .

Second,

i t s b o r d e r s , but: t h e I'RC h a d n o c ompa r a b l e V i e t na me s e p r e s e l l c e w i t h i l l

it ; na t i on a l boundnri .f s . Th i r d , Ha no i sa w t h e e c onomi c r i l o t i o ns h i p

betwren C h i r 1 . i i i n d Vie t Nasi t o b e o n e - s i d e d . I l e i j i n g was Cree LO e x r r t

economic l1?versge o n Hanoi , but Hanoi was i n no p o s i t io n t o r e c i p r o ca t e .

Vic t Nam had b w n exh ausI:e d by y e a r s o f w a r f a r e , wh i le China b a s b r g i n -

n i n g t o e n j o y n niaasure o f economic r e v i v a l . F o u r t h , the Vie tnamese

t t iought t h a t t he PI<(: w a s i n a much s t r o n g e r i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o s i t i o n t h an

t he SKV. Yuch of the wor ld was be a t in g on B e i j i n g ' s door i n t h e l a t e

l'I7Os: d e s i r i n g c l o s e r d i p l o m a t i c r e l a t i o n s , c o u r t i n g t h e I'KC i n the

g o b a l power gemc , indulging t h e i r r a n c i c s w i t h the i n d e f a t i g a b l e m y t h

o t t h e Chi na ma r ke t . V i c t Nnm sal i t t i a t i t c ou l d no t hope t o c ompe tc

with t l1i .s . l n s l i o r t , H an oi p e r c e i v e d a d i s t i n c t l ac k s y n e n e t r y i n t h e

r * l a t i v r p o s i t io n s t o t he PKC and t h e SHV. lla no i lo ok ed a t i t s r e l a -

t i o n s h i p u i t h H ei .i in g its i f Viet N a m were t h e f i sh o n the l i n c and China

t i l e f i s h e r m m . 'Tht\ C h i n e s e c o u l d e x e c u t e t e n s i o n or s l a c k a s t h e y saw

t h e SRV had a 1 .1 rg c a nd w e a l t h y e t h i c C h i n e s e p o pi i la t io i i u i t l i i n

7 7



f i t , b u t t h e V i et n am e se c o u l d o n l y s t r u g g l e t o e x te n d the l ine. Any

o t t i c r c o u r s c o f a c t i o n h o u l d r c s u l t i n t h e i r b e i n g r r e l e d i n .

From t1ii.s frame oC r r l e r e n c e , Hanoi developed i t s obn " c a l c u l u s o f

dc? t e rr encc ." S ince t he SRV l e a d e r s t h o u g h t t h e y were a t s u c h a g r e a t

d i s ad v a nt a ge , t h e i r c a l c u l u s h a s one p r i m a r i l y o f b e l l i g e r e n c e . T h e y

w is he d t o s i g n a l t o t h e C hi ne se t h a t t h e y were n o t g o in g t o be b u l l i e d .

H a no i -s a c t i o n s a f t e r 1 9 7 5 lcerc n ot u n l i k c B e i j i n g - s a c t i o n s a f t e r 1 9 4 9 ,

a s desc r ibcd by Whi t i ng . T h e V ie tn am es e r e s o r t e d t o t h e r h e t o r i c of

a c c u s a t i o n a nd w a r n in g . The SRV main t a ined s t ea dy p rc s s ur e a long i t s

b o r d e r s . H an oi was q u i c k t o c a l l on N o s c o h COK s u p p o r t . I n a d d i t i o n t o

t h i s , the Vie tnamese were a b l e t o s ig n al . t h o i r d i s p l e a s u r e t o B e i j i n g by

the h a r s h m e as u re s t a k e n a g a i n s t the Overseas Chinese . Because Hanoi

was t he weaker pa r t y , ye t suppo r t ed by t h e Sovie t Union , i t t hough t i t

coiild i n f l u e n c e C h in e s? b e h a v i o r by h o s t i l c , i n e a su r es w i t h o u t h a v i n g t o

s u f f e r d e v a s t a t i n g c o n s e q u e n c e s . The SRV hould m a k r t h Q PKC dea l w i t h

i t on i t s own t e rms , a n d t h e r e b y f o r c e t h e C h i n e s e t o r e l i n q u i s h many o f

t h e i r n a t u r a l a d v a n t a g e s . A s a r e s u l t , the Virenamrsc l e a d e r s d i d n o t

appea r t o t r y t o under s t and hliy Ch ina d id p o s e a t h r e a t and t o a c t i n a

h ay t o r e du c e t h a t t h r e a t . I n s t e a d , t h e y to ok a c t i o n s t h a t c o ul d o n l y

i n € l a m e t h e i s sue . Th ey b eg an m a s s i v e p e r s e c u t i o n s o f t h e O v e r se a s

Chinese i n Vie t N a m , a nd t h e y d r e h c l o s e t o the Sovie t Union.

T h c h e a r t o f the c r i s i s was i n t h i s c o n f l i c t of percep t i ons . E ach

s i d e was u s i n g a d i C f c r e n t p e r s p e c t i v e i n v i u h in ) : i t s own and thc

o t h e r s i d e - s p o s i t i o n , and e a c h s i d e was d e t e r m i n e d t h a t i t s w i l l bould

p r e v a i l .

7 0



R e a c t i n g. t inder S t r e s s

1.n t h e s p r i n g o i 1 9 7 8 , H a n oi b e g an a n i n t e n s i v e c am p a ig n a g a i n s t

t h e Cl i inese r i s i d e i i t s of V ie t Nam. A t t h i s t ime B e i j i n g b eg an r e a c t i n g

niuch more b e l l i g e r c n t l y . Now, C h i n a ' s c r i s i s m an ag em en t a p p r ox i n ia t ed

iiior( c l o s e l y ~ h t x c s l c u l u s o f d e t e r r e n c e " m o d el t h a t h ad c h a r a c t e r i z e d

i t i n 1950 and 1 9 6 2 . L i k f w i s e , t h e C h i n e s e l e a d e r s s t a r t e d t o e x h i b i L

c t i o s ~ ~l ~ a r a c t ~ r i s tc s o f n c t i o n t h a t t y p i f y d e c i s i on - m ak i , ng u n d e r s t r e s s

ils d e s c r i b e d b y O l e I l o l s t i .

CeeI i n g c o n s t r a i n e d b y i t r a t h e r t h a n u s i n g i t t o c h e i . r a d v a n t a g e . 'Tht,v

t h o u g h t t h e range 01: c r e d i b l e r e s p o n s e s o p e n t o th em w as d i m i n i s h i n g ,

anll et1ei.r r h e t n r i c a n d a c t i o n s b eca m e more b e l l i g e r e n t . What a t t e m p t s

R e i .i i il g h od m ad( i . a r l i e r t o u n d e r s t a n d H a n o i ' s frame o f r e f e r e n c e a nd

l i o l i t a t i o n 0 1 a c t i o l l W T C now p ut a s i d e . U l t i m a t e l y , t h i s l e d t o o p r n

b a r .

'They b e g a n t o p e r c e i v e time d i f f e r e n t l y ,

C ti i n es t- De t e r r enc e

C h i n a m a y be one 1: the f e b c o u n t r i e s , p e r h a p s the o n l y c o u n t r y ,

t h a t has a c o h e r e n t s t r i l t e g y f o r g e n u i n e l y l i m i t e d w a r : l i m i t e d i n b o t h

t a ( : t i c a l and strategic o b j e c t i v e , l i m i t e d i n m e a ns , a n d - - e s p e c i a l l y - -

l i m i t e d i n t imt . l t s t im s , t o a l a r g e e x t e n t , f ro m C h i n a ' s a p p r e c i a t i o n

oE i t s l i m i t -x d a b i l i t y t n p r o j e c t i t s power. F or B e i j i n g t h e l i m i t e d ,

p u n i t : i v c ~ a rs o n e inore w ay , d r a s t i c i n d e e d , O C d e l i v e r i n g a s i g n a l .

I t i s p a r t 01: t h e L o t a l p a c k ag e o f t h e " C h i ne s e c a l c u l u s o f d e t e r r c n c c . "

A t t h e o n s c c o f i n i l i t o r y o p e r a t i o n s , B e i j i n g m ak e s s e v e r a l p o i n t s c l e a r .

T he war w i l l b e q u i c k . ' T h e PLA d o e s n o t i n t e n d t o c o n q u e r t h e e ne my

c o u n t r y or o v e r t h r o w i t s g o v e r n m e n t . T h e PLA d o e s n o t e v e n i n t e n d t o



d e f e a t t h e enemy army i n the senso of making i t i n e f f e c t i v e a s a

f i g h t i n g fort(,. What tlir t is determinr d t o do i s q u i t e l i t e r a l l y

pun i sh i t s a d v e r s a r y . The PLA u i l l i n f l i c t m as si ve c a s u a l t i e s on t h e

enemy army, and i t w i l l no t s p a re an y c i v i l i a n s who h ap pe n t o g e t i n t h e

bay, e i t h e r . Xaximum phys ica l de s t ruc t ion b i l l be v i s i t e d u p o n s e l e c t

a r e a s of t h e e n e m y ' s coun t ry tha t a r e o f seconda ry impor tancc . When

t h i s h a s o c c u r r e d , the PLA b i l l c l e a r o u t . T h is i s p r e c i s e l y w h a t

happened i n Viet Nan1 i n 1 9 7 9 .

'The war l a s t e d o l f i c i a l l y froln 1 7 February c o 1 5 March 1 9 7 9 . ~ ( 1 s t

o f t h v i n t e n s e f i g h t i n g b a s over , however , b y 5 March, uhen t h r L'LA

announced i t was commencing i t s b i t h d r a x a l . T h e C hi ne se d i d i n f l i c t

h e a v y c a s u a l t i e s on t he V i et n am e se ( e s t i m a t e d a t a b o u t 50,000) and

wrought massive damage on t h e n o r t h e r n b o r d e r r e g i o n s o€ t h e S K V , most

n o t a b l y on t h c c i t y o € L a n g Son. T h i s Eol lobed t h e p a t t e r n t h a t h a d

b e e n e s t a b l i s h e d b i t t i the In di an War of 1962, a l t h o u g h t h e I n d i a n War

b a s f a r l e s s b l oo d y an d d e s t r u c t i v e .

2

3

4

There i s c o n s i d e r a b l e d c b a t e as t o b h e th e r t h e PRC "bon" o r " l o s t "

t h e war, k h et h er t h e c r e d i t o r d e b i t s i d e o i t h e l e d g e r came o u t w i t h

t h e l a r g e r b ot to m l i n e . T h e s e a r e c e r t a i n l y l e g i t i m a t e qu e s t i o ns , fo r

t h e C h i ne s e s u f f e r e d c o n s i d e r a b l y t he m s e l ve s . R a t he r t h a n a d d r e s s i n g

these problems, however , i t i s more a p p r o p r i a t n t o t h i s s t u d y t o u n d er -

s t a n d t h a t t h e l i m i t e d u a r has been, and mos t l i l w l y s t i l l i s , an

i n t e g r a l p a r t of C h i n e s e s t r a t e g y , or Chinese c r i s i s management , of t he

5

C h i n e s e c a l c u l u s of d e t e r r e n c e . ",

T h i s c o n c e p t o f d e t e r r e n c e i s not new t o t h e I'RC. T h e r e l e v a n c e of

h i s t o r y i s a g a i n i n e v i d e n c e , f o r t h e concept has deep ro o t s i n Ch inese

t r ad i t io n . Sunzi expre ss ed many of t h e i d e a s t h a t c a n be s e e n i n t h e

d e t e r r e n c e p o l i c y o f t h e PR C . Use s t r a t a g e m s an d d i s p l a y s t o d e t e r t h e

80



o po on r n t s h o r t ot' b a r . When r a r i s e m p l o y e d a s a n i n s t r u m e n t o f s t r a t -

e g y , c 0 1 1 c l 1 r d c i t n s q u i c k l y a s p o s s i b l e . Do n o t s e e k the a n n i h i l a t i o n

o f the enemy. A l r a y s a1 Low a d e f e a t e d e n e m y a w a y o u t . 'The g o a l of

t h i s s t r a t e g y i s t o r e s t o r e h ar m on y, t o r e s t o r e the p r o p e r w e a v e of t he

t a p e s t r y . W l i i 1 . e i t w ou ld b e a m i s t a k e t o e q u a t e t h e t h o u g h t o f S u n z i

r i c h t h a t of t h c m o d e r n P R C l e a d e r s h i p , t h e n o t i o n s tie p r o p o u n d e d s t i l l

w ou ld a p p o a r t o c x e r c i s v much i n f l u e n c e i n C h i n a .

6

The SKV p t .c s c nt ed t h e PRC w i t h a s t r a t e g i c t h r e a t by an a g g r e s s i v e

c x p r c ~ s s i o no i i t s n a t i o n a l i d e n t i t y c o i ip le d w i t h a c lose r e l a t i o n s h i p

w i t h t h e S o v i e t U n i i i n .

ar,d ~ - e [ ) e a t e d l y v e r s e v e r a l c o n t e n t i o u s i s su e s . R e i j i n g s o u g h t t o d t l t e r

H:lIIOi 'S 1 I n n C c e p t a b l e b t h . iv i o r t h r o u g h 21 series o f s i g n a l s :

c i : onom i c , p s y c h o lo g i c a 1, d i p oma t i c , a n d u 1 inia t e 1 m i 1 t a r y .n e s r r e r e t r y i n g t o r e p a i r t h e t a p e s t r y .

VLet Nam c h a l l e n g e d C h in a ' s c r e d i b i l i t y o p e n l y

p l , l i t i c a l ,

T h e C l i i -

An Index of l n d i c a t o r n

T h e e s c a l a t i o n of C h i n e s e r e s p o n s e s €rom the b e g i n n i n g of 1978 u p

t o t h e war c a n b e t r a c e d a l o n g a n i n d e x of i n d i c a t o r s . On t h e one hand,

t h i s i n d e x c o n s i d e r s the c o n t e n t i o u s i s s u e s t h a t t r i g g e r e d a C l i i n e s p

r e a c t i o n . On t h e o t h e r . h a n d , i t e x a m i n e s t h e C h i n e s e s i g n a l i t s e l f i n

terms of i t s d e l i v e r y , i n t e n s i t y , a u t h o r i t y , a n d t i m i n g .

Oblique_ ModtLrate S i g n a l l i n g

A t t h e b e ) : i n n i n g of 1978, t h e PRC was c o n t i n u i n g i t s c a r r o t - a n d -

s t i c k p o l i c y of r e l a t i v e r e s t r a i n t . The m a in m ode of s i g n a l l i n g was

c 'b1i .que a n d i n c l u d e d p o s i t i v e a s well as n e g a t i v e i n d u c e m e n t s . On 4

J a n u a r y 1978, B e ij i . ng i n d i c a t e d t h e i m p o r t a n c e i t p l a c e d on t h e O v e r s c a s

8 1



Chinese i s su e by announc ing i n K e n Min R i Bao the r e e s t a b l i s h m e n t of t h e

Ove rsea s C hine se A f f a i r s Cornmi s s i o n a t m i n i s t c r i a l l e v el . T h i s was

r a t t i e r m i l d i n t o n e and i n d i r e c t i n n a t u r e , a v o i d i n g p o i n t i n g t h e f i n g e r

t o o s p e c i f i c a l l y a t H ano i. On 10 J a n u a r y t h e PllC p u b l i s h e d a c c o u n t s o f

the Vie tnamese -Cambodian con t rov e r s y g i v i ng t h e point of view of each

s i d e . On th e same day, a Chinese a i.d package f o r t h e SRV was r e n e s e d .

T h e s e s i g n a l s a d d re s s ed t h r e e m n j o r c o n t e n t i o u s i s s u e s - - t h e Overseas

C h i n e s e , C am bo di a, a n d S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e - - i n a v e r y m o d e r a t e f a s h i o n .

7

8

I n d i r c c t Acc u s a t o r y S pi1a I 1 ng

T h e f i r s t q u a r t e r o f 1978 saw a re ki nd l i ng of t h e c o n f l i c t along

t h e border between Viet Nam and Cambodia. On 24 March 19 78, Hanoi began

ano the r round of p e r s e c u t i o n s o f t he Overseas Ch inese , and soon tlir €low

oT r e f u g e e s became t o r r e n t i a l . b e i j i n g d e t er m in e d t h a t i t s o b l i q u e ,

mode rate messages had gone unheeded. In mid-May t h r PRC i s s u e d a n o t h e r

s e r i e s o f s i g n a l s , s t r o n g e r t ha n th o se s e n t e a r l i e r b u t s t i l l r a t h e r

i n d i r e c t . Th e p r o - B e i j i n g Hong Kong ne ss pa pe r Wen Wei Pao on 11 May

and on 2 2 May, expressed t h e o p i n i o n t h a t Hano i ’ s ac t i ons were a n t i -

Ch inese r a the r t h a n a n t i , - c a p i t a l i s t a nd t h a t the Sovie t Union was behind

the w h o l e problem. By blamin g th e So vi et Un io n- -i t s number one enemy--

B e i j i n g was i n d i c a t i n g t o Hanoi i t s r i s i n g c o n ce r n o v e r t h e i s s u e , a nd

i t s a s a l s o g i v i n g t h e V i e tn a me s e a ba y o u t . On 1 2 May Bei ji ng an-

nounced that i t would reduce i t s a i d co t h e S I N because i t b a s r e q u i r e d

t o d i v e r t t h e mo ni es t h u s s a ve d t o s u p p o r t t h e r e f u g e e s c o m i n g i n t o

China . Here were e l e me n t s o f C h in e se s i g n a l l i n g t h a t would be r e -

p e a te d t h r ou g h o ut th e c r i s i s : a r h e t o r i c a l o f f e n s i v e c ou pl ed w i t h a

s y mb o li c (n nd o f t e n t a n g i b l e ) g e s t u r e . The s i g n a l s bere c h a r a c t e r i z e d

b y c h a r g e s a n d a c c u s a t i o n s of Vie tnamese ma l f easance .

9

9

10

8 2



On 24 May 1978, thv g lo v e s came o f f . T h e P K C launched a d i r e c t

r h < t o r i c a l a I .t a ck o n t h i SRV. 'There w a s no l o n g c r an e f f o r t Lo k e c p t h e

a c c u s a t i o n s o b l ique and i n d i r e c t . T h e c l i a r g e s no 1ongc.r emariatt d si mp ly

Irom nchspapt'r a r t i c l r s and e d i t o r i a l s . N or they se r e b e i ng a s c r i b e d

d i r e c L l y t o Chi F o r e i g n M i n i s t r y o f t h e PKC. A 1 1 of ' t he major i s s u e s

werr r a i s e d : , : l ~ : i r g ~ s Vi e tna me se pe r s e c u t i on Ovc rs " a s Chinese , of

Vi<stnnnirse o g g r u s s i m a g a i ns t Ca mbod ia , a nd o t V i e t n a m e s e c o i l u s i o n w i t h

t t i c , t i o v i c t s . On l J u n t , t h c Chi ne s e 1: or ei gn M i n i s t r y 1" ve I l e d a no t he r

s c . r i t s s o c . ~ c ~ u s a t i o n s. ' a t t h c SKV, and t h i s t ime i n n iuc h more a c r i m o n i o u s

tt. rnii no l o g y .

i i l t c ? n s i t y , a nd i n twspo.

gt s tu re . Th( , I tlmrr I<ougz+ l a unc he d a v i c i o u s c o u n t e r a t t a c k 011 24 May.

W I I Q s n t t i i , SRV j o i n v d COl lECON i n l a t e . l i ine o f 1 9 7 8 , t h c PKC r t?spvnded b y

ciiI:tinh: o i f a l l a i d iis o i 3 J u l y .

I 1

12

I l ~ i j i n g as now e s c a l a t i n g i t s a t t a c k s i n a u t h o r i t y , in

'The r h e t o r i c was a g a i n a c c o m p a n i r d b y t h e

13

F.pcc - t o - F n c c Accu s n t v r y

gna 11 n g_ _

On 19 J u l y 1 9 7 8 t he PRC F o r e i g n M i n i s t r y c a l l ed f o r v i c c -

ministerial n e g o t i a t i o n s w i t h H a n o i . Thr c c n t r n l t o p i c was t o b e t h e

Ovcrse;ls Chintssc i s s u e . . Thc t a l k s r a n from A A u gu st t o 26 S e p t e m b r r ,

b u t n o t h i n g has ~ e ; i l I y e g o t i a t e d . Tl ie PllC p r o b a b l y i n t e n d e d t h e

meetings t o tw used pr i n i a r i . l y a s a medium t o d e l i v e r i t s s i g n a l s i ln t l L O

b c a s s u r r d t h a t t h os e s i g n a l s were b e i n g r e c e i v e d . 'Tht? s i g n a l l i n g b a s

i i i init~dintcond d i r r c t ; t he s e s s i o n s h e r e a t r e e k l y i n t e r v a l s ; and t he

I r v t ~ l o f a u t h o r i t y was t t i r t of t h r V i c e - M i n i s t e r of F o r e i g n A f f a i r s .

l'he n n t u r c v f t he s i g n a l s c o i i t i , i l + , * c br, m a i n l y a c c u s a t o r y . S o m r

8 3





be).ng e m p h a s i z e d a s a p r i m a r y c o n t e n t i o u s i s su e . China b a s s i g n a l l i n g

tii.it s a r ‘uiis not OIIL o f t he q u e st i o n s i n c r v i o l a t i o n of- P n C t c s r r i t o r y

ao i i l d constitute' : c l ~ r ~ S U S e l l i u nd er i n t e r n a t i o n a l l a b .

On 13 Ikceiaber 1978, Li. Xiann ian warned Hano i tha t “China’s f o r -19bearr ince has i t s l i m i t s . “ A g a i n , a b a r n i n g h a d b e e n p r e s e n t e d ; e q u a l -

l y i m po rt an L, a n e s c a l a t i o n o f t h e i s s u i n g a u t h o r i t y h a d occurred. 1. i

X i a n n i a n was a v i c e - p r e m i e r oE t h e L’RC and a member of t he S t a n d i n g

Cornni t tee o f t h s P o l i t b u r o o f the PKC. He b a s one of C h i n a ‘ s h i g h e s l

l e a d c r s .

C l l i n n ’ s m o i L s cr io i i s t h r e a t t o d a t c bas made o n 2 4 1)eccmbrr I Y 7 8 .

I n a n eEfo r t t c i d e t r r H an oi ’ s i mm in en t a s s a u l t on Cambodia, Keu Min Ki

2 i T - - .

__bao b a r n e d t i a t t h t P I K w o u l d “ c o u n t e r a t t a c k , “ i f at tackcxd.

On 31 Dect~mber 1 97 8, B e i . j i n g t o o k t h e s y m b ol i c a c t i o n o f recalling

% I

i t s m b a s s a d o r t o Hilnoi; a n d , on 4 J a n u a r y 1 9 7 9 , t h e PKC mad<. another

gc , s tu re by c i i t t : ing o f f r a i l s e r v i c e b e t w e e n C h i n a a n d V i e t Nam.

2 2

On 4 J a n u a r y 1 0 7 9, 1 3e i ji n g a s s e r t e d t h a t l lanoi w a s engaged i n

2 3

“1:renzied p r o v o c a t i o n s ” along the b o r d e r .

On 5 J a n u a r y 1 9 7 9 , Deng X i a o p i n g e x p r e s s e d c o n d e m n a t i o n o f t l ic SRV

2 4

i n v a s i o n o f Cambodia. Once morc, a top PRC l eader hod spoken n u t .

2 5

On 7 J a n u a r y 1 9 7 9 , t h e PLA c a n c e l l e d a l l k a v e s . No* a d i r e c t

m i l i t a r y g e s t u r e h ad b e e n made.

The P K C i s s u e d m a j or a c c u s a t i o n s an d w a rn i n g s r e g a r d i n g V i e tn a m e se

b a r d e r p r o v o c a t i o n s , s u b s e q u e n t l y , on 8 J a n u a r y , 1 2 J a n u a r y , 1 5 J a n u a r y ,

18 . January, 20 J a n u a r y , 2 7 J a n u a r y , a n d 29 Ja nua ry 1979. Thi? au t ho r -

i t y , i n t e n s i t y , and teinpo of t h e s i g n a l s w a s i n c r e a s i n g .

2 6

Deng X ia op in g‘ s v i s i t t o the U n i t e d S t a t e s ( 2 8 J a n u a r y - 4 F e b r u a r y

1 9 7 9) p r e s c n t o d h i m w i t h a s p e c i a l Eorum Erom w hi c h t o s i g n a l t o t h e

V i e t n a m e s e . The u or ld ’ s a t t e n t i o n was on h i m , and h i s w o r d s c o u l d

8 5



h a r d l y go u n n o t i c e d . A l s o , h e may ha v e s a v o r e d e n g a g i n g i n a b i t o f

r e t a l i a t i o n i n k i n d f o r t he l i a r s l i r e m a r k s madf by t he V i e t na m e se l e a d e r s

i n Moscow d i r e c t e d a g a i n s t t h e PKC t he p r e v i o u s N o v e m b e r . Deng i s s u c d

t h r e a t s a n d w a r n i n g s t o H a noi on a l m o s t a d a i l y b a s i s w h i l c h e bas i n

A m e r i c a . On 31 J a n u a r y h e g a v e h i s f a mo us s p e e c h s a y i n g t h a t C h i n a

w ou ld h a v e t o " t e a c h " Vict Nam "a l e s s o n . " T h i s th em e c o n t i n u e d

d u r i n g D en g's s t o p i n T o k y o ( 6 - 8 F e b r u a r y ) . On 7 F e b r u a r y h e m a i n t a i n e d

t h a t " V i et na m m u s t be p u n i s h e d " f o r i t s war i n C a m b o d i a a n d F o r c o l -

l u s i o n w i t h t h e USSR.

27

28

'The PKC s e n t a s t r e a m of k a r n i n g s t o the SRV a f t e r D r n g ' s r e t u r n .

T h e y kerc p u b l i s h e d on 10 F e b r u a r y , I 1 F e b r u a r y , 1 5 F e b r u a r y , a n d I 6

F e b r u a r y 1 9 7 9 ; a n d t h e y i n c l u d e d a f i n a l . a d m o n i t i o n f r om L i X i a n n i a n

a d v i s i n g H a no i t o t a k e h e e d o f a l l C h i n a ' s p r e v i o u s s i g n a l s . 'These

t h r e a t s c e n t ~ r e d n w h a t c o u l d b e the i m m e d i a t e , 1 c g i t i m a l . c c a s u s b e l l i ,

V i e tn a m e se v i o l a t i o n s o f t h e PKC-SRV b o r d e r . B e i j i n g s e t up a command

s t r u c t u r e an d b e ga n m ov in g l a r g c n u m be rs of PLA t r o o p s i n t o t h c b o r d f r

r e g i o n .

2 9

30

H a n o i r e s p o n d ed by s i g n i n g a p r o t o c o l k i t h M oscow on 16 F c b r u a r y3 1

1 9 7 9 , a n d t h e C h i n e s e i n v a s i o n co mm en ced o n 1 7 F e b r u a r y .

An E x a m i n a t io n o f t h c I n d e x

C o n t e n t i o u s I s s u e s

T h e P l l C c o n s i d e r e d t h r e e c o n t e n t i o u s i s s u e s t o be a t the hear t o t

i t s d i f f i c u l t i e s w i t h the SRV: V i c t Nam 's c h a l l e n g e t o C h i n e s e c r e d -

i b i l i t y by i t s " a g g r e s s i o n " a g a i n s t C h i n a - s a l l y C a mb od ia ; H a n oi 's

c h a l l e n g e t o C h i n e s e " r a c e " by i t s o p e n p e r s e c u t i o n o f t h e O v e r s e a s

C h i n e s e ; a n d t h e S R V - s c h a l l e n g e t o C h i n e s e s t r a t e g i c s e c u r i t y by i t s

8 6



c l o s en es s t o t h r Sovie t Union. A Eour th major c o n t e n t i o u s i s s u e , t he

PRI:-SI{V la l id ~ o ~ ~ P Ki s p u L c , i l l u s t r a t c d a i l i n t e r e s t i n g p h e n o m m o n in

the, s i . gnn l l i n f i procoss . 111 a n d of i t s e l f , t h e b o r d e r i s sue bas r e l a -

t i v t l l y m i n o r ; o n l y :I smal l amount oE r e a l e s t a t e w i t h l i t t l e economic O K

s t r a t e g i c v a lu e w i i s ope[ , t o que s t i o n . T he bordc r p rob l em, houever ,

b e c a m e ii t e s t o f n a t i o n a l b i l l and a f o c a l p o i n t for e x p r e s s i n g thr

l h o s t i l i t i e s $ : e n l ? r a t e d b y t h e o t h e r c o n t e n t i o u s i s s u e s . I t t o o k o n an

ex t r emely impor t an t ro lv i n t h e C hi ne se s i g n a l l i n g p r o c e ss . B y s t r c s -

s i n g the S K V ' S v i o l a t i o n s o f t h e b o r d e r , t h e PIK ,#as s e n d i n g a v e r y

s t r o n g nirssn(:c 5 , incv t lw armed c r o s s i n g o f a n i n t e r n a t i o n a l b o r d < . r i s i in

act of bat-.

An e s c a l a t i o n i n t b c means and manner b y w hi ch B e i j i n g d e l i v e r e d

i t s s i g n a l s c an hc seen.

( 1 ) I n d i r e c t e x p r e s s i o n s o f c o n c e r n b y d i p l o m a t i c g e s t u r e s a n d

th rough t h i r i l p a r t y m c d i a .

( 2 ) D i r e c t e x p r e s s i o n s of c o n c e r n t h r o u g h the PKC media.

( 3 ) 1 ) i r e c t E x p r e s s i o n s of conce rn i n government- t o -government

messages .

4 ) D i r e c t e x p r e s s i o n s of conce rn i n ex t ended fo rn ia1 t a l k s .

5 ) D i r e c t e x p r e s s i o n s o t ' c o nc e rn i n p u b l i c s t a t e m e n t s b y the

h i g h e s t PRC o f f i c i a l s .

87



I n t e n s i t y I n d e x

A s t h e c r i s i s c o n t in u c d , t h e i n t e n s i t y l e v e l of the s i g n a l s i n -

c r e a s e d . Not o n l y d i d the words and ges tures become more acr imonious

and b i t t e r , b u t t h e i r na tu re changed a s well .

( 1 ) M o d er a te r h e t o r i c a n d d i p l o m a t i c p res s u re .

( 2 ) A c cu s at o ry r h e t o r i c a nd h o s t i l e d i p l o m a t i c g e s t u r e s .

(3) T h re a t en i n g r h e t o r i c , h o s t i l c d i p l o m at i c g e s t u r e s , and mil-

i t a r y ilc t i v i t y .( (11 Open, l i m i t e d h a r .

A u t h o r i t y I n d e x

A n o th e r i m p o r t a n t a s p e c t o f t h e s i g n a l l i n g p r o c e s s was t h e a u t h o r -

i t y o f t h e p u h l i c s o u r c c . A s c r i t i c a l p ha se - l in es i n t h e c r i s i s here

c r o s s ed , h i g h c r l e v e l s o f a u t h o r i t y were invoked.

( 1 ) T h i r d pa r t y media and normal d ip lom at i c chan ne l s .

( 2 ) U n at t ri b ut c d a r t i c l e s and e d i t o r i a l s i n t h e P K C media.

3 ) G o v er n me n ta l b u r e a u c r a c y a t t h e v i c e - m i n i s t e r i a l a n d m in -

i s t e r i a l l e v e l s .

( 4 ) P u b l i c s t a t e m e n t s by t h e h i g h e s t PRC o f f i c i a l s .

T iming Index

I n h i s s t u d i e s of t he Korean and Indian bars , A l l e n W h i t i n g h a s

p ai d s p e c i a l a t t e n t i o n t o t h e t iming o f Ch inese s i gn a l s . T hey were

g i v e n a t r e g u l a r i n t e r v a l s ; a n d, as t h e c r i s i s i n t e n s i f i e d , t h e time

b et we en s i g n a l s d e c r e a s e d . D e t er m i n in g t i n li n g c o n f i g u r a t i o n s o f t h e

s i g n a l s i s d i f r i c u l t b e ca us e t h e mess ag e t r a f f i c b etwe en two h o s t i l e

88



i a r i o n s a ln io s t a l k a y s c ; i r r i e s somi? f o r m oC s i g n a l or ; a n o t h e r . ' T h f , t a s k

is t o s e p a r a t e [major s i g n a l s Crom s u p p o r t i n g s i g n a l s a n d i d e n t i f y major

s i g n a l b l o c k s . N a j o r s i g n a l s i n d i c a t e a new e l e m e n t i n the c r i s i s , a

lieb d i r e c t i o n or i n i t i a t i v e , a c ha ng e i n t h e intensity o r e m p h a s i s , a n d

o th i r s u c h c r i t i c a l markers. E x a m in in g t h e o t h c r i n d i c e s o f i n d i c a t o r s

$:an h e l p t o e s t a b l i s h t h e t i m i n g i n d e x .

]prior ti) t l i i . S i r i n - V i e t n e n i a s e War d o a p p e a r t o h a ve f o l l o tv e d a g e n e r a l

p a t t e r n s i m i l a r t i ) t h a t d i s c e r n e d b y W h i t i n g i n h i s s t u d i e s o f t h e I ' K C ' s

l p ~ ~ ~ i ~ i i sa r s .

Chinese s i g n a l s d u r i n g thl y ~ a r

( 1 ) S p o r a d i c s i g n a l l i n g d u r i n g p e r i o d oC r e s t r a i n t p r i o r t o May

1978.

2 ) I l s u a l l y , o n e nia.ior s i g n a l . b l o c k per m o n t h b e t k e e n May and t t i r

end of O c t o b ( , r 1 9 7 8 .

( 3 ) At l e a s t three. major s i g n a l b l o c k s b e t k e e n t h e s i g n i n g o f t h v

Soviet-Vietnamese, t r e a t y 011 3 November 1 9 7 8 an d t h e i n v a s i o n O F C a m b o d i a

o n 25 D e c e m b e r .

( 4 ) M a j o r s i g n a l L ~ l o c k s at: l e a s t o n c e a w eek a f t e r t h e V i e t n a m e s e

i n v ; i s i o n o f Cambodia .

U t i l i t y o f t h e I n d e x

11s H o l s t i . has i n d i c a t e d , t h i ? b i g g e s t p o t e n t i a l b e n e f i t t h a t c a n

conle € r u m s t u d y i n g c r i s i s d e v e l o p m e n t i s l e a r n i n g t o i mp le n l en t inert'

e f ' t e c t i v e c r i s i s m a na ge m en t. The i n d e x o C i n d i c a t o r s d e v e l o p e d h e r e may

bc of some a s s i s t a n c e i l l a d v a n c i n g a n u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f how c r i s e s c om e

a b o u t . G r e a t e r u n d c r s t a n d i n g w i l l n o t b e s u f f i c i e n t i n i t s e l f t i> b e t t f r

c r i s i s ma na ge me nt , b u t i t i s o n e i n g r e d i e n t t h a t s h o u ld h e l p p r e c l u d e

b l u n d e r i n g i n t o s e r i o u s i n t e r n a t i o n a l p r o b le m s t h r o u g h m i s p e r c e p t i o n s .

89





l i s t 4 i n these h i s t o r i c a l c a s e s t u d i e s may p ro v e I l r l p t u l i t a p p l i e d t o

I:II,J S i n o - S o v i e t b o r d e r c r i . s i s o f 1969 o r t o t h e PI tC ' s u s c o f

r ? v o l u t i o n a r y w n r f a r e i n Soutl i tAas t A s i a .

C a u c i o n m u s t n l w a y r: be e x e r c i s e d i n d e v e l o p i n g a n y model f r o m a n

h i s t o r i c a l c a s e s t u d y . The i n d e x o f i n d i c a t o r s d e s c r i b e d a bo ve i s by no

means e x h a u s t i v a . I t m a y be h e l p f u l , h o w ev e r , in s h e d d i n g s ~ n i e i g h t on

t h c p ; i t l i th; i l : took Cli in ; i L o war w i t h V i e t Nam i n 1079 a n d on t h e b r o a d e r

l a n d s c a p e o f hiiw C h i n a r c ' i l c t s i n i n t c ~ r n a t i o n a l r i s e s .

'The i n d i v i d u a l s t e p s o r s t a g e s w i t h i n t h e v a r i o u s i n d i c e s do n o t

e x c l u d c elem?nt:; € r u m o t h c r s t e p s a n d s t a g e s . 'They d o p o i n t t o w ha t c a n

b e c ~ n s i d e r e d h e p r i m a r y m o d e of s i g n a l l i n g f o r a g i v e n p e r i o d .

f e r c i r i t m e a n s oI d e l i v e r y , d i f f e r e n t e c h e l o n s o f a u t h o r i t y , a n d d i t f e r o n t

a m o u n t s o f i n t e n s i t y may b e w r a pp ed up i n v a r i o u s s i g n a l s t h a t a r e b e i n g

i s s u e d d u r i n g I:he sam e p e r i o d . G e n e r a l l y , one l e v e l w i l l p r e d o m i n a t e i n

i n p o r t a n c e : I t h i s i.s u s u a l l y - - b u t n o t a l w a y s - - t h c h i g h e s t l e v e l . F u r -

t h e r m o r e , ii h i g l w r s t a g e d o e s n o t n e c e s s a r i l y liilve t o f o l l o w i m m e d i a t e ly

on a lower s t a g e . T h e r r c a n b e a z i g z a g p a t t e r n i n c r i s i s d e v e lo p m e n t .

D i f -

G r e a t e r u n d i r s t a n d i n g o f t h e p h e n o m e n a of' c r i s i s d ev e lo p m e n t a n d

c r i s i s m an ag en io nt i n v o l v i n g t h e PHC r e q u i r e s i n t e g r a t i n g a s m a n y i n d i v -

i d u a l i n d i c v s n s p o s s i t r l e i n t o n b r o a d i n d e x oE i n d i c a t o r s .

9 1



REFEKENCES CITED

I

R o b e r t S u t t e r , " C h i na ' s S t r a t e g y T ow ard V i e t na m a n d Its

Imp1 i c o t i o n s f o r t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , " The T h i r d I n d o c h i n a C o n f l i c t , e d .

b y D a v i d W.P. E l l i o t t ( B o u l d e r : Westvieb Pres s , 1 9 8 1 ) , p. 174.--

7

L i Man K i n , S i n o - V i e t n a m e s e ( H on g K on g: K i n g s s a y

I n t e r n a t i o n a l P u b l i c a t i o n s , L t d . , 1 9 8 1 ) , p . 1 .

3

4

5

6

L i , p p . 5 9 - 6 0 .

L i , p . 96.

L i , p. 5Y -60 .

S a m u e l B. G r i f f i t h , t r a n s . , e d . , an d i n t r o . , Sun T Z I I , T h e Art o f

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r c s p e c t i v e 1y .7

8

Ken 41in K i B a a , 4 J a n u a r y 1Y78.

Hen M in R i B a o , 10 J a n u a r y 1978, i n F o r e i g n B r o a d c a s t I n f o r m a t i o n

- - _ _

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Wen Wci Pao , 11 May 1 9 7 8 a n d 22 May 1978 .

F B I S (PRC), 24 May 1978.10- -

11

1 2

1 3

14

F B I S ( P K C ) , 2 4 May 1978.

F R I S (PK C) , 12 J u n e 1978.

F BIS ( A s i a an d P a c i f i c ) , 10 J u l y 1978.

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I 7

FU IS ( P K C ) , 7 N o v em b er 1978

9 2



I R

Ren Min I t i Rno, 10 Noveniher 1978, i n F B I S (PKC), I 3 N o v m b @ r_ .- __19'8.

I 9

2 0

2

2 2

2 '1

2 4

2 5

2 h

F U t S

F B t S

I:B I S

F B I S

FBIS

F n T S

F B I S

( P K C ) , 14 I h >c r i i i b e r 1978.

( P R C ) , 2 6 U e c e m b e r 1978.

( A P ) , 3 . J a n u a r y 1979.

i \ P ) , 5 J a n u a r y 1979.

(PKC), 5 J a n u a r y 1979.

( P R C ) , 8 . J a n u a r y 1979.

( L ' R C ) , 2 2 J a n u a r y 1979.

~

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2 1

T h e N e w Y o r k 'Times, 3 1 J a n u a r y 1979, i n D n n ip l T r r t i a k , " C h in a ' s__ __ ___V i ? t n a m W ar a n d i t s Consrquences, C h i na Q u a r t e r l y , 8 0 : 7 4 3 , D c w m b r r ,

1979.

28

2 0

:10

3 1

M a i n i c h i D a i l y N e w s [ ' T o k y o l , 8 F e b r u a r y 1Y79, i n ' T r e t i a k , p . 7 4 7 .

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1. L i e u t e n a n t C o l o n e l J o s e p h A. S c h l a t t e r7 5 1 1 T o d d P l a c eManassas, V i r g i n i a 2 21 10

2 . D o c t o r J o s e p h R. G ol dma n , P h . D . , P h .D .D e p a r t m e n t o f J o i n t a n d C om bin ed O p e r a t i o n sU.S. A r m y C o m m a n d a n d G e n e r a l S t a E f C o l l e g e

P o r t L e a v e n w o r t h , K a n s a s 6 6 0 2 7

3 . C o m b i n e d A r m s R e s e a r c h L i b r a r yU .S . A r m y Command a nd C c n c r a l S t n f L C o l l e g eF o r t L e a v e n w r t h , Kansas 6 6 0 2 7

4 . D e f e n s e T e c h n i c a l I n f o r m a t i o n C e n t e rC a m e r o n S t a t i o n

A l e x a n d r i a , V i r g i n i a 2 23 14