Sistema operazionale per il Canton Ticino

11.04.23 1Kanton Tessin / BAFU Hochwasservorhersage

Calibration

- Already calibrated areas:

Manual CalibrationPREVAH

Manual CalibrationRS3.0

Calibration approach

Tuneable Parameters

• Precipitation correction• Threshold coefficient for surface runoff /quick runoff formation

• Storage time for surface runoff• Storage time for interflow

Xml-file (discharge)

Tuneable Parameters

•Hydropower infrastructure (intakes,

derivations, storage, powerplants)

•Storage accumulation/release

(volume, energy demand,

legislations, etc..)

•River bed hydraulics (slope, river

bed geometry)

Strategien Kalibrierung

– Langfristig (Jahresverlauf)• Staureferenzniveau

– Kurzfristig (Tages/Wochen)

• Strompreise

– Rahmenbedingungen• Wehrreglement und andere

Kalibrierung RS3.0

Fokus auf: Zielniveaukurven (saisonale Volumen Verschiebung) Umleiten von Wasser durch Fassungen, Galerien (geographische Verschiebung)

Calibration approach RoutingSystem Target Level Curve

Die Target Level Curve wird verwendet um das langzeitverhalten der grossen Reservoire zu simulieren.

Falls vorhanden wird die Zielkurve über gemittelte historische Jahreskurven definiert (in diesem fall 2000-2011)Falls nicht wird die Zielkurve definiert in dem man den Ertrag des Kraftwerkes optimiert (saisonalen Energiepreisschwankungen nutzen und Überlaufereignisse minimieren)

Sambuco:64 Mio m3

Strategien Kalibrierung Speichermanagement:

– Kombination von lang- und kurz-fristiger Optimierung

• Staureferenzniveau

• Strompreise

Führt zu Turbinieren trotz tiefer

Preise Turbinieren trotz tiefem

Level

Kalibrierung RS3.0

Calibration and validation results Moesa:

Moesa Lumino-SasselloEfficiency criteria

1999-2004Calibration

2005-2010Validation

1999-2010

NS 0.668 0.631 0.66

NSlog 0.55 0.487 0.529

VOL -302.9 280.9 -22

Yearly discharge maxima

1999-2004Calibration

2005-2010Validation

1999-2010

NS 0.78 0.70 0.75

NSlog 0.83 0.76 0.8

VOL -17 35 18

CalancascaEfficiency criteria

Calibration and validation results Moesa:

  Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Decobserved [mm] 35.9 28 40.4 79.2 252.2 228.5 159.5 128 109.1 124.5 131.1 65.9simulated [mm] 31.8 29 48.4 95.2 239.7 212.9 160.4 141.4 115.2 124.5 129.7 52.2

Mean monthly sum of discharge

Calibration and validation results Moesa:

Comparison of discharge

Calibration and validation results Moesa:

Discharge components:

R0= Surface runoff [mm h-1]; R1= Interflow [mm h-1]; R2= Total baseflow [mm h-1]; RTOT= Total runoff [mm h-1]

• Mean monthly water balance for the long-time perios, sum of all years (table)• Mean yearly water balance (table)• Maps of some water balance variables (whole area)

Further results, which will be included in the report:

Composite of 37 PREVAH sub-basins 1998-2010: Left: average annual actual evapotranspiration [mm]; Right: average annual discharge [mm]

Calibration and validation results Ponte Tresa:

1999-2004Calibration

2005-2010Validation

1999-2010

NS 0.826 0.807 0.822

NSlog 0.837 0.805 0.824

VOL -823.88 -494.19 -1318.06

Difficulties during calibration process:

- Low NS and Nslog-values for Riva San Vitale_Laveggio, Porlezza, Lugano- Scariolo

Riva San Vitale_Laveggio Porlezza Lugano Scariolo

1999-2004Calib.

2005-2010Valid.

1999-2010

NS 0.564 0.061 0.421

NSlog 0.599 0.313 0.474

VOL 300 -259 41

2007-2009Calib.

2000-2002, 2010Valid.

2001-2001, 2006-2010

NS 0.5 0.242 0.313

NSlog 0.686 0.61 0.598

VOL -57 -53 -1

2001-2005Calib.

0.301 2001-2010

NS 0.431 0.28 0.358

NSlog 0.119 0.364 0.261

VOL -17 25 8

Difficulties during calibration process:

Bsp: Riva San Vitale_Laveggio 2001

PREVAH