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Situation Normal, Everything Must Change

Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

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Page 1: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Situation Normal, Everything Must

Change

Page 2: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Simon

Wardley

Page 3: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10
Page 4: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

DANGER!Will Robinson

DANGER!

Page 5: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/

Page 6: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Pain

Page 7: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

No. Slides

Pain

Page 8: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

No. Slides

Pain

OK

30 slides

Page 9: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

No. Slides

Pain

OK

Severerisk of harm

373 slides

Page 11: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Cloud Computing?

Page 13: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

It’s like computers on the

internet, innit.

Page 15: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg

Page 16: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Disruptive shift of the computing stack to online

services.

Page 17: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

It’s like computers on the

internet, innit.

Page 19: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

£10,000 please.

Page 20: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10
Page 21: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10
Page 23: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

It’s like SaaS or Software as a Service, and infrastructure provision and PaaS, that’s

Platform as a Service and utility computing being provided in public clouds, which is

different from private clouds which aren’t cloud computing, unless of course you’re

talking about hybrid clouds which sort of are and it’s hype and lock-in and did I mention

infrastructure?

Page 24: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

67 definitions

Page 25: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10
Page 26: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

No. Slides

Pain

OK

Severerisk of harm

373 slides

Page 27: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

1. On-demand self-service Internet

infrastructure where you pay-as-you-go and use only what you need, all

managed by a browser, application or API. Cloud computing is broken up into

multiple segments including: Cloud Infrastructure, Cloud Platforms and

Cloud Applications.(see "Cloud Pyramid")

Page 28: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

No definition

Page 29: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10
Page 30: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Our Product

Cloud =

Page 31: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

NIST(National Institute of Science & Technology)

Page 32: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Version 15

Page 33: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

National Institute of Standards and Technology, Information Technology Laboratory

Note 1: Cloud computing is still an evolving paradigm. Its definitions, use cases, underlying technologies, issues, risks, and benefits will be refined in a spirited debate by the public and private sectors. These

definitions, attributes, and characteristics will evolve and change over time.

Note 2: The cloud computing industry represents a large ecosystem of many models, vendors, and market niches. This definition attempts to encompass all of the various cloud approaches.

Definition of Cloud Computing:

Cloud computing is a model for enabling convenient, on-demand network access to a shared pool of configurable computing resources (e.g., networks, servers, storage, applications, and services) that can be

rapidly provisioned and released with minimal management effort or service provider interaction. This cloud model promotes availability and is composed of five essential characteristics, three service models,

and four deployment models.

Essential Characteristics:

On-demand self-service. A consumer can unilaterally provision computing capabilities, such as server time and network storage, as needed automatically without requiring human interaction with each service’s

provider.

Broad network access. Capabilities are available over the network and accessed through standard mechanisms that promote use by heterogeneous thin or thick client platforms (e.g., mobile phones, laptops, and

PDAs).

Resource pooling. The provider’s computing resources are pooled to serve multiple consumers using a multi-tenant model, with different physical and virtual resources dynamically assigned and reassigned

according to consumer demand. There is a sense of location independence in that the customer generally has no control or knowledge over the exact location of the provided resources but may be able to

specify location at a higher level of abstraction (e.g., country, state, or datacenter). Examples of resources include storage, processing, memory, network bandwidth, and virtual machines.

Rapid elasticity. Capabilities can be rapidly and elastically provisioned, in some cases automatically, to quickly scale out and rapidly released to quickly scale in. To the consumer, the capabilities available for

provisioning often appear to be unlimited and can be purchased in any quantity at any time.

Measured Service. Cloud systems automatically control and optimize resource use by leveraging a metering capability at some level of abstraction appropriate to the type of service (e.g., storage, processing,

bandwidth, and active user accounts). Resource usage can be monitored, controlled, and reported providing transparency for both the provider and consumer of the utilized service.

Service Models:

Cloud Software as a Service (SaaS). The capability provided to the consumer is to use the provider’s applications running on a cloud infrastructure. The applications are accessible from various client devices

through a thin client interface such as a web browser (e.g., web-based email). The consumer does not manage or control the underlying cloud infrastructure including network, servers, operating systems,

storage, or even individual application capabilities, with the possible exception of limited user-specific application configuration settings.

Cloud Platform as a Service (PaaS). The capability provided to the consumer is to deploy onto the cloud infrastructure consumer-created or acquired applications created using programming languages and tools

supported by the provider. The consumer does not manage or control the underlying cloud infrastructure including network, servers, operating systems, or storage, but has control over the deployed

applications and possibly application hosting environment configurations.

Cloud Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS). The capability provided to the consumer is to provision processing, storage, networks, and other fundamental computing resources where the consumer is able to

deploy and run arbitrary software, which can include operating systems and applications. The consumer does not manage or control the underlying cloud infrastructure but has control over operating systems,

storage, deployed applications, and possibly limited control of select networking components (e.g., host firewalls).

Deployment Models:

Private cloud. The cloud infrastructure is operated solely for an organization. It may be managed by the organization or a third party and may exist on premise or off premise.

Community cloud. The cloud infrastructure is shared by several organizations and supports a specific community that has shared concerns (e.g., mission, security requirements, policy, and compliance

considerations). It may be managed by the organizations or a third party and may exist on premise or off premise.

Public cloud. The cloud infrastructure is made available to the general public or a large industry group and is owned by an organization selling cloud services.

Hybrid cloud. The cloud infrastructure is a composition of two or more clouds (private, community, or public) that remain unique entities but are bound together by standardized or proprietary technology that

enables data and application portability (e.g., cloud bursting for load-balancing between clouds).

Note: Cloud software takes full advantage of the cloud paradigm by being service oriented with a focus on statelessness, low coupling, modularity, and semantic interoperability.

Page 34: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Note 1: Cloud computing is still an evolving paradigm.

Page 35: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

We don’t know what “cloud” is yet.

Page 36: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

3 service models4 deployment models

5 essential characteristics

Page 37: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Trains have wheels, they move along a track and are run by public &

private operators

http://www.flickr.com/photos/oddsock/322932213

Page 38: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Why trains?

http://www.flickr.com/photos/oddsock/322932213

Page 39: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

“The real thing to do today is to capture, what are the dimensions of the thing that literally, I will tell you, we’re betting our

company on, and I think pretty much everybody in the technology industry is

betting their companies on”

Microsoft CEO, Steve Ballmer

Page 40: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

We don’t know what “cloud” is yet

Page 41: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

We don’t know what “cloud” is yet

but bet your company on it

Page 42: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

We don’t know what “cloud” is yet

but bet your company on it

everybody else is.

Page 43: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

“open up exciting new prospects for the

employment of computers in ways and on a scale that would have seemed pure

fantasy only five year ago”

Page 44: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

“The challenge of the Computer Utility” Douglas Parkhill

1966

Page 45: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

“The challenge of the Computer

Utility” Douglas Parkhill

1966

Page 46: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

“The challenge of the Computer

Utility” Douglas Parkhill

1966

Page 47: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Public & Private“The challenge of the Computer

Utility” Douglas Parkhill

1966

Page 48: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Elastic Supply

Public & Private“The challenge of the Computer

Utility” Douglas Parkhill

1966

Page 49: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Elastic Supply

Utility basis

Public & Private“The challenge of the Computer

Utility” Douglas Parkhill

1966

Page 50: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Elastic Supply

Utility basis

Online

Public & Private“The challenge of the Computer

Utility” Douglas Parkhill

1966

Page 51: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

+44 years

Page 52: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Computer Utility Cloud Computing

Page 53: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

Private cloud isn’t cloud computing

Yes, it is

Oh not it isn’t

Page 54: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10
Page 55: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

innovate

cost efficient

Offshore

show ROI

focus on core

adaptable

align to the business

good governance

secure

Six Sigmaflexible

CloudSAAS

Web 2.0

Enterprise 2.0

Outsource

process engineering

REST

Open sourceSOA

KPIs

Agile

ITILOrganic

Demand management

Page 56: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Economics

Page 57: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

What is cloud?Economics

Page 58: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

What is cloud?Why now?

Economics

Page 59: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

What is cloud?Why now?

Economics

Benefits & Risks

Page 60: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

What is cloud?Why now?

Economics

Private or Public?Benefits & Risks

Page 61: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Myths

What is cloud?Why now?

Economics

Private or Public?Benefits & Risks

Page 62: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

UbuntuMyths

What is cloud?Why now?

Economics

Private or Public?Benefits & Risks

Page 63: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Diffusion of innovationEverett Rogers( 1931 - 2004 )

Page 64: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Technology Adoption

Page 65: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Technology Adoption

Ma

rket S

hare

%

Page 66: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Shapes of curves of diffusions for innovations that spread over various periods of time

Late adopters

Innovation 3Innovation 2Innovation 1

Take-off

Earlier

Adopters

Time

Page 67: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

% o

f ow

ners

hip

Number of years (1=year invented)

Page 68: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

% o

f Owne

rshi

p

Page 69: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Ubi

quity

Page 70: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Time

Ubi

quity

Page 71: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Time

Ubi

quity

Early

Page 72: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Time

Ubi

quity

Early

Laggards

Page 73: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Time

Ubi

quity

“New and Improved”

Page 74: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Time

Ubi

quity

Early

Page 75: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Time

Ubi

quity

Laggards

Page 76: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Time

“New and Improved”

Ubi

quity

Page 77: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Time

Ubi

quity DisruptiveChange

Page 78: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Time

Ubi

quity DisruptiveChange

Clayton Christensen

Page 79: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Time

Ubi

quity

Early

Laggards

Page 80: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Time

Ubi

quity

More defined, feature complete & better understood

Page 81: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/

Page 82: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Ubi

quity

Page 83: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 84: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

TV’s, Phones & VCRS

Page 85: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

TV’s, Phones & VCRS

Page 86: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Innovation

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 87: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Commodity

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 88: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Innovation of early lists, 1980.

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 89: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Custom built, DB MarketingMid 80s

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 90: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

ProductEarly 90s

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 91: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Utility Services of Salesforce

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 92: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Product

Custom builtInnovation

Commodity

Utility Services

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 93: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Innovation of Z3, 1941

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 94: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Custom Built LEO, 1946

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 95: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Products IBM 650, 1954

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 96: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Commodity Hardware

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 97: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Utility services of Amazon EC2

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 98: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Innovation of W. H. Wollaston, 1821

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 99: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Early Products, Hippolyte Pixii, 1830s

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 100: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity Utility Services

of the National Grid

Page 101: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 102: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Commod

itisati

on

Page 103: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10
Page 107: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Demand (user competition)

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 111: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Improvement (supply competition)

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Demand (user competition)

Page 112: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Commod

itisati

on

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Improvement (supply competition)

Demand (user competition)

Page 113: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

What is cloud?Economics

Page 114: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 115: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 116: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Widespread(Demand)

Feature Complete(Improvement)

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 117: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 118: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Database Framework

Operating System

CPU Memory I/O

Messaging

Application

Virtualisation

Page 119: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Database Framework

Operating System

Memory I/O

Messaging

Application

Virtualisation

Page 120: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Database Framework

Operating System

Memory I/O

Messaging

Application

Virtualisation Infrastructure

Page 121: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Database Framework

Operating System

Memory I/O

Messaging

Application

Virtualisation Infrastructure

Platform

Page 122: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Database Framework

Operating System

Memory I/O

Messaging

Application

Virtualisation Infrastructure

Platform

Software

Page 123: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

... as aProduct

... as aService

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 124: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

What is cloud?Why now?

Economics

Page 125: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

What is Industrial Revolution?

Page 126: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

It’s like mechanised horses, innit.

Page 127: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

43 definitions

Page 128: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

1. Broad socioeconomic and technological changes starting

in the early 18th century.

Page 129: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

2. Rapid development of industry in the

early 19th century.

Page 130: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

No definition

Page 131: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

+ 200 years

Page 132: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html

Cloud? Hang on, let’s look at

Google.

Page 133: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Not a thing

Page 134: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Transition

Page 136: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10
Page 137: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Concept

Page 138: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Suitability

Concept

Page 139: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Suitability

TechnologyConcept

Page 140: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Attitude

Concept

Suitability

Technology

Page 141: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Industrial Revolution

Attitude

Concept

Suitability

Technology

Page 142: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Our Product

Industrial Revolution

=

Page 143: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Our Product

Cloud Computing

=

Page 144: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Cloud Computing

Page 145: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Concept

Page 146: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Concept

Suitability

Page 147: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Concept

Suitability

Technology?

Page 148: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Gerald J. Popek (1947-2008)

Page 149: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Concept

Suitability

Technology

Attitude

?

Page 150: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

http://www.strassmann.com/Paul Strassmann

Page 151: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Nick Carr

Page 152: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Dimini

shing

strate

gic va

lue

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 153: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Competitive advantage

Page 154: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity Cost of doing

business

Page 155: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10
Page 156: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Payroll

HR Systems

CRM

ERP

Infrastructure

Finance & Accounting

Sales Automation

Page 157: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity Cost of doing

business PayrollHR

Page 158: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity Cost of doing

business

Min. Strategic value

PayrollHR

Page 159: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

PayrollHR

Why are we spending $600M p.a. on customising

stuff has no strategic value?

Page 160: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

Gain competitive advantage by customising your

payroll system

Page 161: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Way back when ...

Now

Page 162: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Standardised Service!

Page 163: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Marketplace

Standardised Service!

Page 164: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Concept

Suitability

Technology

Attitude

Page 165: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Recap

Page 166: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

% o

f ow

ners

hip

Number of years (1=year invented)

Page 167: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Product

Custom builtInnovation

Commodity

Utility Services

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 168: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Commod

itisati

on

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Improvement (supply competition)

Demand (user competition)

Page 169: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Widespread(Demand)

Feature Complete(Improvement)

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 170: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10
Page 171: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Concept

Suitability

Technology

Attitude

Page 172: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Elastic Supply

Utility basis

Online

Public & Private“The challenge of the Computer

Utility” Douglas Parkhill

1966

Page 173: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Marketplace

Standardised Service!

Page 174: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

... as aProduct

... as aService

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 175: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

It’s like SaaS or Software as a Service, and infrastructure provision and PaaS, that’s

Platform as a Service and utility computing being provided in public clouds, which is

different from private clouds which aren’t cloud computing, unless of course you’re

talking about hybrid clouds which sort of are and it’s hype and lock-in and did I mention

infrastructure?

Page 176: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

What is cloud?Why now?

Benefits & RisksBenefits

Page 177: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity Early Utility

Westinghouse,1890s

Product Hippolyte Pixii,

1830s

Page 178: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Economies of scale(volume operations)

Page 179: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Economies of scale(volume operations)

Focus on core (outsource)

Page 180: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Economies of scale(volume operations)

Focus on core (outsource)

Pay per use (utility)

Page 181: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Speed (Self Service)

Economies of scale(volume operations)

Focus on core (outsource)

Pay per use (utility)

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 182: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)

The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates.

Page 183: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates.

Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)

newnew

newnew

Page 184: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)

Creative Destruction

Page 185: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Erodin

g Valu

e

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 186: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Erodin

g Valu

e

EnablesInnovation

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 187: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Electricity

Hardware

Internet

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 188: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Electricity

Hardware

Internet

Search

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 189: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

EnableInnovation

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

Page 190: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

New server

64 node cluster

Previous Time(mins)

72,000

130,000

Page 191: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

New server

64 node cluster

Previous Time(mins)

Cloud Time(mins)

72,000

130,000

7

15

Page 192: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Theory of Hierarchy Componentisation

Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)

Page 193: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Rate of evolution of a system is

dependant upon the organisation of its subsystems.

Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)

Page 194: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Application

Page 195: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Database Framework Messaging

Application

Page 196: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Database Framework

Operating System

CPU Memory I/O

Messaging

Application

Virtualisation

Page 197: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Database Framework

Operating System

CPU Memory I/O

Messaging

Application

Virtualisation

Page 198: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

CPU

Application

Orders of Magnitude

Page 199: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

Page 200: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

AcceleratedInnovation

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

Page 201: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Henry Maudslay(1771 - 1831)

Page 202: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

InnovationFlemming Valve, 1904

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 203: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

ProductsIntel 4004, 2300 Transistors, 1971

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 204: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Busicom

Page 205: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

MCS-4

Busicom

Page 206: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

MCS-4

Busicom

Co-Evolution

Page 207: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

> 1,000,000,000,000,000,000

1

Greater consumption

Page 208: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

$700

0.0002c

Reduced cost per unit

Page 209: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

Pay per use = greater efficiency

greater efficiency = less cost

Page 210: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

William Stanley Jevons, 1865

“Jevons Paradox”

Technological progress that increases the

efficiency with which a resource is used, tends to

increase the rate of consumption of that

resource.

Page 211: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Speed (Self Service)

Economies of scale(volume operations)

Focus on core (outsource)

Pay per use (utility)

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 212: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Accelerated Innovation (componentisation)

Page 213: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Greater consumption(componentisation, co-evolution, Jevons paradox)

Accelerated Innovation (componentisation)

Page 214: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

What is cloud?Why now?

Economics

Benefits & RisksRisks

Page 215: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Disruptive

... as aProduct

Page 216: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Transition

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 217: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Transition

Confusion

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 218: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Transition

Governance

Confusion

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 219: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Transition

Governance

Trust

Confusion

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 220: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Transition

Governance

Trust

Security

Confusion

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 221: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Transition

Governance

Trust

Security

Confusion

Transparency

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 222: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Outsourcing

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 223: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Suitability

Outsourcing

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 224: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Competition

Suitability

Outsourcing

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 225: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Competition

Lock-in

Suitability

Outsourcing

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 226: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Competition

Lock-in

Second Source

Suitability

Outsourcing

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 227: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Competition

Lock-in

Second Source

Control

Suitability

Outsourcing

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 228: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Transition

Governance

Trust

Confusion

Transparency

Competition

Lock-in

Second Source

Control

Suitability

Outsourcing

Security

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 229: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

You have choice!

Page 230: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Market

Certainty

Ubi

quity

You

Page 231: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Market

Competitive Gap

Certainty

Ubi

quity

You

Page 232: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Market

Speed to market

Economies of scale

Focus on core

Pay per use

Reduced cost

Accelerated innovation

Certainty

Ubi

quity

You

Page 236: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

“Red Queen Hypothesis”

The need to constantly evolve in order to stand

still relative to a surrounding ecosystem

Prof. Van Valen

Page 237: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Pres

sure

Prof. Van Valen

“Red Queen Hypothesis”

Certainty

Ubi

quity Market

You

Page 238: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

vsBenefits Risks

Page 239: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Recap

Page 240: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Product

Custom builtInnovation

Commodity

Utility Services

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 241: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Improvement (supply competition)

Demand (user competition)

Page 242: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

... as aProduct

... as aService

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 243: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Concept

Suitability

Technology

Attitude

Page 244: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Economies of scale(volume operations)

Focus on core (outsource)

Pay per use (utility)

Speed (Self Service)

Page 245: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Greater consumption(componentisation, co-evolution, Jevons paradox)

Accelerated Innovation (componentisation)

Page 246: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Disruptive

Certainty

Ubi

quity

... as aProduct

Page 247: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Transition

Governance

Trust

Confusion

Transparency

Security

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 248: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Competition

Lock-in

Second Source

Control

Suitability

Outsourcing

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 249: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Transition

Governance

Trust

Confusion

Transparency

Competition

Lock-in

Second Source

Control

Suitability

Outsourcing

Security

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 250: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Pres

sure

Prof. Van Valen

“Red Queen Hypothesis”

Certainty

Ubi

quity Market

You

Page 252: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

vsBenefits Risks

Page 253: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

What is cloud?Why now?

Economics

Private or Public?Benefits & Risks

Page 254: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Consumer Provider

Page 255: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Consumer

Public Cloud

Provider

Page 256: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Consumer Provider

Page 257: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Consumer

Private Cloud

Provider

Page 258: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Consumer Provider

Private Cloud

Page 259: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Business Units

I.T. Dept

Private Cloud

Page 260: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 261: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Public

Private

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 262: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Hybrid

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 263: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Transition

Governance

Trust

Security

Certainty

Hybrid

Ubi

quity

Page 264: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

“The challenge of the Computer Utility” Douglas Parkhill

1966

Page 265: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Consumer Provider

variety of models

Page 266: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Myths

Risks

What is cloud?Why now?

Economics

Private or Public?

Page 267: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

Only public cloud is cloud computing!

Page 268: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

You have choice!

Only public cloud is cloud computing!

Page 269: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

Standards don’t matter

You have choice!

Only public cloud is cloud computing!

Page 270: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

It’ll reduce your IT spend.

Cloud is Green.

Page 271: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Economies of scale(volume operations)

Pay per use (utility)

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

Page 272: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

efficiency

Page 273: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Greater consumption(componentisation, co-evolution, Jevons paradox)

Accelerated Innovation (componentisation)

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

Page 274: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

consumption

efficiency

Page 276: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

Infrastructure = CodeWe can automate!

Page 277: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

BOFH = 200 MBOFH++ = 20K VM

Infrastructure = CodeWe can automate!

Page 278: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

BOFH = 200 MBOFH++ = 20K VM

Infrastructure = CodeWe can automate!

Reduce BOFH by 95%+

Page 281: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

It’s an Innovation

Oh, Yes it is.

Page 282: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Standardised, low costservice

Marketplace

Page 283: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Innovation = $$$

Page 284: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

+ $$$

Innovation

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 285: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

You

Competitive Gap

Market

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 286: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

All IT is the same!

Page 287: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

IT

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 288: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 289: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 290: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Dynamic

Page 291: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

DynamicUncertain

Page 292: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

DynamicUncertainDeviation

Page 293: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

DynamicUncertainDeviationDifferential

Page 294: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

DynamicUncertainDeviationDifferentialWorth

Page 295: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 296: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Static

Page 297: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

StaticDefined

Page 298: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

StaticDefinedNo Deviation

Page 299: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

StaticDefinedNo DeviationStandard

Page 300: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

StaticDefinedNo DeviationStandardCost

Page 301: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

DifferentCharacteristics

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 302: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Innovation of early lists

Custom built, DB Marketing

90’s Early Product

Utility Services of Salesforce

Page 303: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

NoMagic Bullets

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 304: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Agile

Six Sigma

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 305: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Six Sigma

Page 306: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Six Sigma

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 307: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Six Sigma

Page 308: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates.

Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)

newnew

newnew

Page 309: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Agile

Page 310: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Agile

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 311: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Agile

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 312: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Pres

sure

Prof. Van Valen

“Red Queen Hypothesis”

Certainty

Ubi

quity Market

You

Page 313: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Future Wealth

(Survival Tomorrow)

Competitive Efficiency (Survival Today)

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 314: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Survival today requires ‘coherence,

coordination and stability’.

Survival tomorrow requires the

replacement of these erstwhile virtues.

Salaman & Storey

Innovation Paradox

Page 315: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

AcceleratedInnovation

Page 317: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

“One size fits all”

Page 318: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10
Page 319: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10
Page 320: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Public cloud

Amazon EC2

Ubuntu on EC2

(April’09)

Page 321: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10
Page 322: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Ubuntu Server Edition

Physical (bare bones)

Cloud Controller

Node Controller

KVM Hyp.Web UI

VMEucalyptus

Private cloudRapid Deployment.

Page 323: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Ubuntu Server Edition

Physical (bare bones)

Cloud Controller

Node Controller

KVM Hyp.Web UI

VMEucalyptus

Private cloudRapid Deployment.

On premise.

Page 324: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Ubuntu Server Edition

Physical (bare bones)

Cloud Controller

Node Controller

KVM Hyp.Web UI

VMEucalyptus

Private cloudRapid Deployment.

On premise.

Self Service IT.

Page 325: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Ubuntu Server Edition

Physical (bare bones)

Cloud Controller

Node Controller

KVM Hyp.Web UI

VMEucalyptus

Private cloudRapid Deployment.

Track EC2 / S3.

On premise.

Self Service IT.

Page 326: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Ubuntu Server Edition

Physical (bare bones)

Cloud Controller

Node Controller

KVM Hyp.Web UI

VMEucalyptus

Private cloudRapid Deployment.

Track EC2 / S3.

Best of Breed.

On premise.

Self Service IT.

Page 327: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Ubuntu Server Edition

Physical (bare bones)

Cloud Controller

Node Controller

KVM Hyp.Web UI

VMEucalyptus

Private cloud

Ubuntu Enterprise Cloud

(April ’09)

Page 328: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Public cloud

Amazon EC2

Ubuntu Server Edition

Physical (bare bones)

Cloud Controller

Node Controller

KVM Hyp.Web UI

VMEucalyptus

Private cloud

Page 329: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Public cloud

Amazon EC2

Ubuntu Server Edition

Physical (bare bones)

Cloud Controller

Node Controller

KVM Hyp.Web UI

VMEucalyptus

Private cloud

EC2 & S3 API

Page 330: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Public cloud

Amazon EC2

Ubuntu Server Edition

Physical (bare bones)

Cloud Controller

Node Controller

KVM Hyp.Web UI

VMEucalyptus

Private cloud

Common Management Tools

Page 331: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Public cloud

Amazon EC2

Ubuntu Server Edition

Physical (bare bones)

Cloud Controller

Node Controller

KVM Hyp.Web UI

VMEucalyptus

Private cloud

Common Machine Images

Page 332: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Public cloud

Amazon EC2

Ubuntu Server Edition

Physical (bare bones)

Cloud Controller

Node Controller

KVM Hyp.Web UI

VMEucalyptus

Private cloud

Bursting Easier

Page 333: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Public cloud

Amazon EC2

Ubuntu Server Edition

Physical (bare bones)

Cloud Controller

Node Controller

KVM Hyp.Web UI

VMEucalyptus

Private cloud

Page 334: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Ubuntu Server Edition

Physical (bare bones)

Cloud Controller

Node Controller

KVM Hyp.Web UI

VMEucalyptus

Private cloud

Refe

rence m

od

el

Public cloud

Amazon EC2

Page 335: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

> 8,000private clouds based on UEC

Page 336: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

ubuntu.com/cloud24x7 Support

Training Professional Services

JumpStart

Page 337: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Summary

Page 338: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

% o

f ow

ners

hip

Number of years (1=year invented)

Page 339: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Product

Custom builtInnovation

Commodity

Utility Services

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 340: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Commod

itisati

on

Page 341: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Improvement (supply competition)

Demand (user competition)

Commod

itisati

on

Page 342: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Our Product

Cloud =

Page 343: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

... as aProduct

... as aService

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 344: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Speed (Self Service)

Economies of scale(volume operations)

Focus on core (outsource)

Pay per use (utility)

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 345: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Greater consumption(componentisation, co-evolution, Jevons paradox)

Accelerated Innovation (componentisation)

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

Page 346: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Transition

Governance

Trust

Confusion

Transparency

Competition

Lock-in

Second Source

Control

Suitability

Outsourcing

Security

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 347: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Disruptive

Certainty

Ubi

quity

... as aProduct

Page 348: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Consumer Provider

variety of models

Page 349: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Ubuntu Server Edition

Physical (bare bones)

Cloud Controller

Node Controller

KVM Hyp.Web UI

VMEucalyptus

Private cloud

Refe

rence m

od

el

Public cloud

Amazon EC2

EC2 / S3

Page 350: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10
Page 351: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

vsBenefits Risks

Page 353: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Pres

sure

Prof. Van Valen

“Red Queen Hypothesis”

Certainty

Ubi

quity Market

You

Page 354: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Henry Maudslay(1771 - 1831)

Page 355: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

consumption

efficiency

Page 357: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Future Wealth

(Survival Tomorrow)

Competitive Efficiency (Survival Today)

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 358: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Innovation = $$$

Page 359: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Hybrid

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 360: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Concept

Suitability

Technology

Attitude

Page 361: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Elastic Supply

Utility basis

Online

Public & Private“The challenge of the Computer

Utility” Douglas Parkhill

1966

Page 362: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

photos/videoplacebo/3481780379/

You told me about business stuff

Page 363: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

... as aProduct

... as aService

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Computing Utility

Page 364: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Computing Utility

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

... as aProduct

... as aService

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 365: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

... as aProduct

... as aService

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 366: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

... as aProduct

... as aService

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Cloud

Page 367: Situation Normal - UKUUG Mar'10

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

We don’t know what “cloud” is yet

but bet your company on it

everybody else is.