Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan O&M Planning Assumptions for Natural Gas Resources Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation

NorthwestPower andConservation

Council


Council

Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan

O&M Planning Assumptionsfor Natural Gas Resources

Maury GalbraithNorthwest Power and Conservation Council

Portland, OR

July 17, 2008


Council


CouncilJune 11, 2008 2

Sources of O&M Expense Information

• FERC Form 1: Annual Report of Major Electric Utilities

• Utility Integrated Resource Plans

• Literature Review

• Industry Experts


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Comparison of O&M Expense Estimates Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine (2x1)

Fixed ($/kW-yr) Variable ($/MWh) Source

NPCC 5th Plan 10.30 3.30

Idaho Power 2006 IRP 10.30 3.30 NPCC 5th Plan

Portland General 2007 IRP 8.90 2.30 NPCC 5th Plan

Avista Corp 2007 IRP 9.20 2.60 NPCC 5th Plan

Puget Sound 2007 IRP 21.00 3.00 NPCC 5th Plan

PacifiCorp 2007 IRP 9.10 2.40 EPRI TAG

Platts White Paper 2007 12.80 1.50 FERC Form 1

NPPC FERC Form 1 13.40 1.30 FERC Form 1


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Comparison of O&M Expense Estimates Simple Cycle Aeroderivative Turbine (LM6000)






Puget Sound 2007 IRP


Platts White Paper 2007 ** 2.90 1.20 FERC Form 1


NERA NYISO ICAP Study 36.70 3.10 S&L


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Comparison of O&M Expense Estimates Simple Cycle Frame Turbine






Puget Sound 2007 IRP 7.00 4.00


Platts White Paper 2007 ** 2.90 1.20 FERC Form 1


NERA NYISO ICAP Study 19.00 0.50 S&L


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Comparison of O&M Expense Estimates Internal Combustion Engine


Platts White Paper 2007 5.20 0.00 FERC Form 1



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FERC Form 1 Data

• Platts O&M White Paper • Piper, Steve and Jason LaDue, “Estimation of Generating Unit O&M

Expenses: Revisiting the ’80/20’ Rule,” Platts White Paper, June 15, 2007.

• Describes mapping of FERC Form 1 line items to fixed and variable O&M expense categories.

• Provides indicative O&M expenses

• Platts “Generation Supply Curve – Historic” Database • Contains FERC Form 1 O&M expense data for 2003-2006

• Requires Platts Energy AdvantageTM license


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Platts Mapping of FERC Form 1 Generating Plant Statistics to Fixed and Variable O&M

Form 1 Line No. Form 1 Item Description Platts O&M Category

19 Production Expenses: Oper, Supv, & Engr Fixed

27 Rents Fixed

29 Maintenance Supervision and Engineering Fixed

30 Maintenance of Structures Fixed

31 Maintenance of Boiler Plant Fixed

32 Maintenance of Electric Plant Fixed

33 Maintenance of Misc Steam Plant Fixed

21 Coolants and Water (Nuc Only) Variable

22 Steam Expenses Variable

23 Steam from Other Sources Variable

24 Steam Transferred (Cr) Variable

25 Electric Expenses Variable

26 Misc Steam Power Expenses Variable

28 Allowances Variable


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Council Extract of FERC Form 1 O&M Data

• O&M Source = FERC Form 1 Actual

AND Plant Region = WECC

• Number of Observations:

Prime Mover Fixed # Obs. Variable # Obs.

Combined Cycle 45 46

Gas Turbine 178 170

Aeroderivative 22 22

Frame 31 31

IC Engine 29 28


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Limitation of FERC Form 1 Data

• Regulated utility reporting (no merchant plants)

• Accounting standards are subject utility interpretation (anomalously high and low cost data)

• Reporting by Plant/Prime Mover combination (masks unit level detail)


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Combined Cycle Combustion Turbines

Plant Name Prime Mover YEAR $/kW-yr $/MWh

1 Animas COMB CYC 2003 20.43 4.04

2 Charles Lenzie COMB CYC 2006 0.12

3 Coyote Springs COMB CYC 2003 28.61




7 Coyote Springs II COMB CYC 2003 10.56 0.57




11 Currant Creek COMB CYC 2006 5.47 0.80

12 Encogen NW COMB CYC 2003 19.64 0.70





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CCCTs (Continued)


16 Fort St. Vrain COMB CYC 2003 9.38 0.65




20 Hermiston Generating Co. COMB CYC 2004 4.94 2.45



23 Luna Energy Facility COMB CYC 2006 9.24

24 Redhawk 1 & 2 COMB CYC 2005 5.16 1.24

25 Redhawk 1 & 2 COMB CYC 2006 14.00 0.96

26 Santan COMB CYC 2003 25.59 1.75

27 Silverhawk COMB CYC 2006 20.27 0.02

13.00 1.00


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Aeroderivative Gas Turbines


1 Lordsburg (PNM) GAS TURB 2003 16.70 0.01

2 Lordsburg (PNM) GAS TURB 2004 17.90



5 Northeast (WWPC) GAS TURB 2006 10.72

6 Pyramid Generating Project GAS TURB 2004 5.65

7 Pyramid Generating Project GAS TURB 2005 4.98 17.96

8 Pyramid Generating Project GAS TURB 2006 4.83 17.41

9 Sundance (AZPS) GAS TURB 2005 4.15 8.32

10 Sundance (AZPS) GAS TURB 2006 4.64 8.18

11 West Valley City GAS TURB 2003 93.27 4.50




31.00 8.00


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Frame Gas Turbines


1 Bennett Mountain GAS TURB 2005 2.41 1.74

2 Bennett Mountain GAS TURB 2006 2.26 2.79

3 De Moss Petrie GAS TURB 2003 0.82




7 Frederickson (PSPL) GAS TURB 2006 1.26 13.83

8 Limon Generating Station GAS TURB 2004 4.72

9 Limon Generating Station GAS TURB 2005 5.45 35.71

10 Limon Generating Station GAS TURB 2006 5.28 34.62

11 Mountain Home Generation Station GAS TURB 2003 9.52 4.08





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Frame Gas Turbines (Continued)


15 Nevada Sun Peak Project GAS TURB 2003 0.03

16 Rathdrum GAS TURB 2003 32.28 16.03




20 Whitehorn GAS TURB 2003 29.81

21 Whitehorn GAS TURB 2004 21.27 12.78

9.00 16.00


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Internal Combustion Engines Plant Name Prime Mover YEAR $/kW-yr $/MWh

1 Boulder Park INT COMB 2003 14.45 9.16




Sub-Average 12.00 6.00


5 Kings Beach INT COMB 2003 3.69

6 Kings Beach INT COMB 2004 3.25 0.26

7 Kings Beach INT COMB 2005 3.38 0.08

8 Pueblo Airport Industrial INT COMB 2003 11.39 13.06

9 Pueblo Airport Industrial INT COMB 2004 6.12



12 Rocky Ford INT COMB 2003 5.25 3.92

13 Rocky Ford INT COMB 2004 8.38



All-Average 7.00 6.00


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Summary of FERC Form 1 Analysis

Prime Mover Fixed ($/kW-yr) Variable ($/MWh)

Combined Cycle 13.00 1.00

Gas Turbine

Aeroderivative 31.00 8.00

Frame 9.00 16.00

IC Engine 12.00 6.00


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Comments and Suggestions?


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Documents

Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan O&M Planning Assumptions for Natural Gas Resources Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation