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SLIDmarch03 - National Bureau of Economic Researchdenardim/research/SlidRestud04.pdf · z ò ó ó ó ô ó ó ó õ W V ^ \ U Y T Ö m T ]] e d T ^ W e V Y ¦ q é r Ê Â r m X

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Page 1: SLIDmarch03 - National Bureau of Economic Researchdenardim/research/SlidRestud04.pdf · z ò ó ó ó ô ó ó ó õ W V ^ \ U Y T Ö m T ]] e d T ^ W e V Y ¦ q é r Ê Â r m X

������ �������� ��� ���� ���� ������ ����

�� �� ���� �� �� �

Page 2: SLIDmarch03 - National Bureau of Economic Researchdenardim/research/SlidRestud04.pdf · z ò ó ó ó ô ó ó ó õ W V ^ \ U Y T Ö m T ]] e d T ^ W e V Y ¦ q é r Ê Â r m X

� � � � � � � � � � ! " � � # ! $ ! % & " $ & � # $ ' ( � $ ) ! &

* + , - + . / 0 1 + 2 + 3 4 5 6 / 2 + / 7 8 * + , - + . /9 : / 2 ; + , 7 7 ,< = > = ? @ = A @ = B @ = . + 1 0 / : C +

D + 0 3 / 2? B A E F > B E E E G H < >I , 7 J J + 0 , . : . 1 JG < E A B F ? E B F K F

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Page 3: SLIDmarch03 - National Bureau of Economic Researchdenardim/research/SlidRestud04.pdf · z ò ó ó ó ô ó ó ó õ W V ^ \ U Y T Ö m T ]] e d T ^ W e V Y ¦ q é r Ê Â r m X

� � � " $ & � � � � � � ! " � � # ! $ ! % & " $ & � # $ ' ( � $ ) ! &

* + , - + . / 0 1 + 2 + 3 4 5 6 / 2 + / 7 8 * + , - + . /9 : / 2 ; + , 7 7 ,< = > = ? @ = A @ = B @ = . + 1 0 / : C +

D + 0 3 / 2< F M F F > E E < @ @ M @

I , 7 J J + 0 , . : . 1 JA < > A ? G B E B F K G

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Page 4: SLIDmarch03 - National Bureau of Economic Researchdenardim/research/SlidRestud04.pdf · z ò ó ó ó ô ó ó ó õ W V ^ \ U Y T Ö m T ]] e d T ^ W e V Y ¦ q é r Ê Â r m X

O�P� Q����R STUVWVXY TVZ [\T] _ TU\ `V\a`T]]b ZWY^UWc ^\Z TVZdeVd\V^UT^\Zfg\T] _ WY h`d_ heU\ deVd\V^UT^\Z ^_TV \TUVWVXYfR ieh\ ej ^_WY WV\a`T]W b WY Z`\ ^e ]Wj\kdbd]\fR lV ^_\ TXXU\XT^\m T ]TUX\ jUTd^WeV ej [\T] _ WY ^UTVYkhW ^\Z TdUeYY X\V\UT^WeVY UT^_\U ^_TV Tdd`h`]T^\Ze ^ ej ]Wj\kdbd]\ YTnWVXYfR oWd_ p\ep]\ q[W _ _WX_ ]Wj\^Wh\ WVdeh\r s\\p ]e^Y ejTYY\^Y TY ^_\b TX\f

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Page 5: SLIDmarch03 - National Bureau of Economic Researchdenardim/research/SlidRestud04.pdf · z ò ó ó ó ô ó ó ó õ W V ^ \ U Y T Ö m T ]] e d T ^ W e V Y ¦ q é r Ê Â r m X

u����R vU\ WV^\UX\V\UT^WeVT] ]WVsY a`TV^W T^Wn\]b WhpeU TV^^e \wp]TWV _e`Y\_e]Z YTnWVX c\_TnWeU TVZ [\T] _ deVkd\V^UT^WeVx lj b\Ym [_Wd_ eV\Yx ye ne]`V^TUb eUWVne]`V^TUb c\a`\Y^Y hT^^\UxR lY ^_\ YTh\ YTnWVX heZ\] nT]WZ jeU e^_\U de`V^UW\Yxg\ [W]] deVYWZ\U i[\Z\Vz de`V^Ub WV [_Wd_ ^_\U\ WY]\YY WV\a`T]W b TVZ ^_\ Xen\UVh\V^ U\ZWY^UWc ^\Y heU\^_TV WV ^_\ {fifx

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Page 6: SLIDmarch03 - National Bureau of Economic Researchdenardim/research/SlidRestud04.pdf · z ò ó ó ó ô ó ó ó õ W V ^ \ U Y T Ö m T ]] e d T ^ W e V Y ¦ q é r Ê Â r m X

}������ ��� �� �ybVTY^b heZ\]YR ~U`Y\]] TVZ ihW _ q����rfR �TY^T�V\ZTm y��T���Wh�\V\� TVZ o��eY�o`]] q����rR �`TZUWVW q����rf

��� heZ\]YR �`XX\^^ q����rfR �es_T]\ \^ T]f q����rR �\\U q����r

Page 7: SLIDmarch03 - National Bureau of Economic Researchdenardim/research/SlidRestud04.pdf · z ò ó ó ó ô ó ó ó õ W V ^ \ U Y T Ö m T ]] e d T ^ W e V Y ¦ q é r Ê Â r m X

���P���� �Q ��� P����R ����R ]Wj\^Wh\ TVZ WVdeh\ `Vd\U TWV^b�R pTU\V^Y TU\ T] U`WY^Wd�R d_W]ZU\V pTU WT]]b WV_\UW pTU\V^Y� pUeZ`d^WnW bf

����R vX\ Y^U`d^`U\ X\V\UT^\Y WV\a`T]W b�R �e^Wn\Y ^e YTn\z pU\dT ^WeVTUbm ]Wj\ dbd]\m c\a`\Y^YfpeeU p\ep]\z ]Wj\�dbd]\ dehpeV\V^ ej YTnWVXY�UWd_z WV_\UW TVd\fR v]Ye ZW�\U\Vd\Y Z`\ ^e ZW�\U\V^ jThW]b cTdsXUe`VZYf

Page 8: SLIDmarch03 - National Bureau of Economic Researchdenardim/research/SlidRestud04.pdf · z ò ó ó ó ô ó ó ó õ W V ^ \ U Y T Ö m T ]] e d T ^ W e V Y ¦ q é r Ê Â r m X

OPP� � �Q ��� P�� �����R vddWZ\V^T] c\a`\Y^Y Ze Ve^ _\]p \wp]TWV ^_\ deVd\Vk^UT^WeV WV ^_\ `pp\U ^TW] ej ^_\ [\T] _ ZWY^UWc ^WeVf�e]`V^TUb c\a`\Y^Y ZefR �UTVYhWYYWeV ej pUeZ`d^WnW b TdUeYY X\V\UT^WeVY WVkdU\TY\Y deVd\V^UT^WeV WV ^_\ `pp\U ^TW] c ^ ne]`V^TUbc\a`\Y^Y TU\ a`TV^W T^Wn\]b heU\ WhpeU TV^fR �\a`\Y^ he^Wn\ � ]Wj\�dbd]\ Tdd`h`]T^WeV pUe�]\ heU\deVYWY^\V^ [W _ ^_\ {fif ZT^TfR {fifki[\Z\V dUeYYkde`V^Ub dehpTUWYeV � WV^\UX\Vf]WVsY WhpeU TV^ T]Ye WV \deVehW\Y [_\U\ U\ZWY^UWc k^WeV pUeXUThY TU\ heU\ pUehWV\V^ TVZ ^_\U\ WY ]\YYWV\a`T]W bf yWYWVd\V^Wn\Y ^e YTn\f

Page 9: SLIDmarch03 - National Bureau of Economic Researchdenardim/research/SlidRestud04.pdf · z ò ó ó ó ô ó ó ó õ W V ^ \ U Y T Ö m T ]] e d T ^ W e V Y ¦ q é r Ê Â r m X

����� �Q ��� ����R �_\ heZ\]R �_\ T]XeUW _hR �T]WcUT^WeVR o\Y`] Y

Page 10: SLIDmarch03 - National Bureau of Economic Researchdenardim/research/SlidRestud04.pdf · z ò ó ó ó ô ó ó ó õ W V ^ \ U Y T Ö m T ]] e d T ^ W e V Y ¦ q é r Ê Â r m X

��� �����iWhp]W�\Z heZ\] ej ^_\ _e`Y\_e]Zz � pTU\V^ TVZ d_W]ZU\VfR deV^WV``h ej TX\V^Y ceUV \Td_ p\UWeZ q  b\TUYrR ]Wn\ `p ^e �¡ b\TUY ej TX\f �eVZf pUecf ej ZbWVXZ\p\VZY eV TX\R ¢¡ b\TU e]Z p\ep]\ Y^TU deVY`hWVXm [eUsWVX TVZ pTbkWVX ^Tw\YR ¢  b\TU e]Z p\ep]\ pUedU\T^\R \weX\Ve`Y V`hc\U ej d_W]ZU\Vm ^e^T] pep`]T^WeV XUe[YT^ T deVY^TV^ UT^\ en\U ^Wh\fR WV_\UW eVd\ WV T ]Wj\^Wh\m T^ T UTVZeh ZT^\R \weX\Ve`Y WVdeh\ pUed\YYR Tj^\U U\^WU\h\V^ ^_\ TX\V^ Ze\Y Ve^ [eUs TVZ U\d\Wn\YYedWT] Y\d`UW b c\V\�^Y

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Page 11: SLIDmarch03 - National Bureau of Economic Researchdenardim/research/SlidRestud04.pdf · z ò ó ó ó ô ó ó ó õ W V ^ \ U Y T Ö m T ]] e d T ^ W e V Y ¦ q é r Ê Â r m X

¤ �Q� ����� ��� ����������¥q¦§r ¨ ©ª«¬­®¯°±gTUh X]e[ T] U`WYh±z ²q³r�_W]ZU\V ecY\Un\ ^_\WU pTU\V^�Y pUeZ`d^WnW b [_\V ^_\ pTUk\V^ WY ´¡flVj\U \wp\d^\Z c\a`\Y^ ZWY^UWcfgeUs\UY \wp\UW\Vd\ pUeZ`d^WnW b Y_edsY µ§q¶rR vj^\U TX\ ¢¡ pUeZ`d^WnW b \ne]n\Y Y^ed_TY^WdT]]b TdkdeUZWVX ^e ·¸R lVW WT] pUeZ`d^WnW b ]\n\] T^ ¢¡ WY WV_\UW \Z jUeh ^_\pTU\V^�Y pUeZ`d^WnW b qT^ ´¡r TddeUZWVX ^e ·¸¹R SweX\Ve`Y TX\k\ºdW\Vdb pUe�]\m »§ m Z`UWVX [eUsWVXb\TUY

�_\ _e`Y\_e]Z dTV eV]b WVn\Y^ WV p_bYWdT] dTpW T]�_\ _e`Y\_e]Z jTd\Y T ceUUe[WVX deVY^UTWV^

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Page 12: SLIDmarch03 - National Bureau of Economic Researchdenardim/research/SlidRestud04.pdf · z ò ó ó ó ô ó ó ó õ W V ^ \ U Y T Ö m T ]] e d T ^ W e V Y ¦ q é r Ê Â r m X

u�¼� �P����_\ Xen\UVh\V^ ^Tw\Yz� ]TceUm dTpW T] WVdeh\ TVZ \Y^T^\Y^e �VTVd\z� \weX\Ve`Y p`c]Wd \wp\VZW `U\�� p\VYWeVY ^e ^_\ U\^WU\Z TX\V^YfiedWT] Y\d`UW b YbY^\hzo\^WU\\Y \Td_ p\UWeZ U\d\Wn\ T ]`hp Y`h ^UTVYj\U jUeh ^_\Xen\UVh\V^f

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Page 13: SLIDmarch03 - National Bureau of Economic Researchdenardim/research/SlidRestud04.pdf · z ò ó ó ó ô ó ó ó õ W V ^ \ U Y T Ö m T ]] e d T ^ W e V Y ¦ q é r Ê Â r m X

¤ ���{iz T ½d]eY\Z \deVehb±m �ecckye`X]TY pUeZ`d^WeV j`Vdk^WeVfi[\Z\Vz TV ½ep\V \deVehb±m ^_\ V\^ WV^\U\Y^ UT^\ WYXWn\V cb ^_\ {fif eV\f

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Page 14: SLIDmarch03 - National Bureau of Economic Researchdenardim/research/SlidRestud04.pdf · z ò ó ó ó ô ó ó ó õ W V ^ \ U Y T Ö m T ]] e d T ^ W e V Y ¦ q é r Ê Â r m X

��� ¾����¿� }�� �¼� ¤ �À��Pi^T^\ nTUWTc]\Yz� TX\ Á�� TYY\^Y jUeh ]TY^ p\UWeZ § �� d`UU\V^ pUeZ`dW WnW b µ§ �� µÃ§ z pTU\V^�Y pUeZf T^ ´¡ `V^W] d_W]Z WV_\UW Y TVZ �\Ue^_\U\Tj^\UfµÃ§ Ä ¡ Å hTs\ WVj\U\Vd\ eV c\a`\Y^Y�µÃ§ ¨ ¡ Å ZWY^WVX`WY_ eUp_TVYf

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Page 15: SLIDmarch03 - National Bureau of Economic Researchdenardim/research/SlidRestud04.pdf · z ò ó ó ó ô ó ó ó õ W V ^ \ U Y T Ö m T ]] e d T ^ W e V Y ¦ q é r Ê Â r m X

Æe`U Y`cp\UWeZY WV ^_\ TX\V^�Y ]Wj\zqWr jUeh ¢¡ ^e Ç¡ b\TUY ej TX\�qWWr jUeh Ç  ^e    b\TUY e]Z�qWWWr �¡ b\TUY e]Z�qWnr jUeh �  ^e � �

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Page 16: SLIDmarch03 - National Bureau of Economic Researchdenardim/research/SlidRestud04.pdf · z ò ó ó ó ô ó ó ó õ W V ^ \ U Y T Ö m T ]] e d T ^ W e V Y ¦ q é r Ê Â r m X

qWr ¢¡ ^e Ç¡ b\TUY e]Zz p\UYeV [eUsYm Y`UnWn\Y jeU d\U TWV`V^W] V\w^ p\UWeZ TVZ Ze\Y Ve^ \wp\d^ ^e WV_\UW YeeVqÅ µÃÈ ¨ µÃrfÉ qÁÊÂʵʵÃr ¨ hTw©ËÌÍ Î¥q¦r ÏÐÑ§É qÁ Ï �ÊÂÈÊµÈ ÊµÃrÒ q�r

Y`cÓ\d^ ^ez¦ Ô Õ�ÏÖ q�×ØÌrÙ Â Ï q�×ØÚr »§ µ q¢r

ÂÈ ¨ Õ�ÏÖ q�×ØÌrÙ Â × ¦ Ï q�×ØÚr »§ µ qÇr

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Page 17: SLIDmarch03 - National Bureau of Economic Researchdenardim/research/SlidRestud04.pdf · z ò ó ó ó ô ó ó ó õ W V ^ \ U Y T Ö m T ]] e d T ^ W e V Y ¦ q é r Ê Â r m X

qWWr jUeh Ç  ^e   z [eUs\U Y`UnWn\Y WV^e V\w^ p\UWeZm pTU\V^hTb ZW\ TVZ ]\Tn\ T c\a`\Y^fÉ qÁÊÂʵʵÃr ¨ hTw©ËÌÍ Î¥q¦r ÏÐÑ§É qÁ Ï �ÊÂÈÊµÈ ÊµÃÈrÒ q´r

Y`cÓ\d^ ^e q¢r TVZzÂÈ ¨ Õ�ÏÖ q�×ØÌrÙ Â × ¦ Ï q�×ØÚr »§ µÏ³È Û¸ÜÝÞ Û¸ÜÍßÞ q r

Û¸ÜÝÞ WVZWdT^eU jVz � Wj µÃ Ä ¡fµÃÈ ¨ à µÃ [W _ pUecTcW]W b á§âã¡ [W _ pUecTcW]W b q�×á§âãr q�r

äåqÁʵÃrz deVZf ZWY^Uf ej ³È m c\a`\Y^ V\^ ej ^Tw\Y T p\UYeV\wp\d^Y Wj pTU\V^ ZW\Yf

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Page 18: SLIDmarch03 - National Bureau of Economic Researchdenardim/research/SlidRestud04.pdf · z ò ó ó ó ô ó ó ó õ W V ^ \ U Y T Ö m T ]] e d T ^ W e V Y ¦ q é r Ê Â r m X

qWWWr TX\ �¡z V\w^ p\UWeZ ^_\ TX\V^ U\^WU\Yf �\ jTd\Y TpeYW Wn\ pUecf ej ZbWVXf y\�V\³qÂÈr æ ÂÈ × Øå ç hTwq¡ÊÂÈ × èéårfÉ qÁÊÂʵʵÃr ¨ hTw©ËÌÍ Î¥q¦r Ïá§ÐÑ§É qÁ Ï �ÊÂÈr

Ïq�×á§r²q³qÂÈrrÒ q�r

²q³r ¨ ²®ê�Ï ³²ë쮯° q�rY`cÓ\d^ ^e q¢m   TVZ �rf

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Page 19: SLIDmarch03 - National Bureau of Economic Researchdenardim/research/SlidRestud04.pdf · z ò ó ó ó ô ó ó ó õ W V ^ \ U Y T Ö m T ]] e d T ^ W e V Y ¦ q é r Ê Â r m X

qWnr TX\ �  ^e � z ^_\ TX\V^ WY U\^WU\Z TVZ Ze\Y Ve^ \wp\d^^e WV_\UW fÉ qÁÊÂr ¨ hTw©ËÌÍ Î¥q¦r Ïá§ÐÉ qÁ Ï �ÊÂÈr

Ïq�×á§r²q³qÂÈrrÒ q�rY`cÓ\d^ ^e q r TVZz

¦ Ô Õ�ÏÖ q�×ØÌrÙ Ïà q�¡rÂÈ ¨ Õ�ÏÖ q�×ØÌrÙÂ × ¦ Ïà q��r

à WY ^_\ p\VYWeV pTbh\V^ jUeh ^_\ Xen\UVh\V^f�_\ ^\UhWVT] p\UWeZ nT]`\ j`Vd^WeV É qí Ï �ÊÂr WY Y\^ ^ec\ \a`T] ^e ²q³qÂrrf

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Page 20: SLIDmarch03 - National Bureau of Economic Researchdenardim/research/SlidRestud04.pdf · z ò ó ó ó ô ó ó ó õ W V ^ \ U Y T Ö m T ]] e d T ^ W e V Y ¦ q é r Ê Â r m X

� ������ î�����{Y\ TX\V^Y� pe]Wdb jVY TVZ \weX\Ve`Y �TUsen pUed\YY\Y ^eX\^ T ^UTVYW WeV j`Vd^WeV ^_T^ hTpY ^_\ ^Wh\ ¶ ZWY^UWc ^WeVej ^_\ Y^T^\ nTUWTc]\Y WV ^_\ pep`]T^WeVm ïqç�¶rm WV^e ^_\ZWY^UWc ^WeV jeU V\w^ p\UWeZ ïqç�¶ Ï �rfÆed`Y eV Y^T^WeVTUb \a`W]WcUWT qdeVY^TV^ ^UTVYW WeV j`Vdk^WeV ðñ TVZ W Y WVnTUWTV^ ZWY^UWc ^WeV ïñrf

Page 21: SLIDmarch03 - National Bureau of Economic Researchdenardim/research/SlidRestud04.pdf · z ò ó ó ó ô ó ó ó õ W V ^ \ U Y T Ö m T ]] e d T ^ W e V Y ¦ q é r Ê Â r m X

v ������� � ���À P WYzòóóóôóóóõWV^\U\Y^ UT^\ ÖmT]]edT^WeVY ¦qérÊÂqérmXen\UVh\V^ pe]Wdbm qØÌÊØÚ ÊØåÊ èéåÊÃrmjThW]b ej pUecf ZWY^Uf jeU c\a`\Y^Y äåqé� çrmdeVY^f ZWY^Uf ej p\ep]\ en\U éz ïñqérY`d_ ^_T^m XWn\V Ö TVZ ^_\ Xen\UVh\V^ pe]Wdbz

qWr ¦qér TVZ Âqér Ye]n\ ^_\ WVZWnWZ`T]�Y hTwWhW�T^WeV pUeck]\hm XWn\V ém Ö m Xn^ pe]Wdb TVZ ^_\ \wp\d^\Z c\a`\Y^ZWY^UfqWWr ^_\ Xn^ cfdf cT]TVd\Y T^ \Td_ p\UWeZ

ö ¨ ÕØÌ Ö Â Ï ØÚ»§ µÛ§÷§ø ×à ۧù§øÏØåq� ×᧯®r ç hTwq¡ÊÂÈ × èéårÙúïñqér q�¢rqWWWr ïñ WY TV WVnTUWTV^ ZWY^UWc ^WeV jeU ^_WY \deVehbqWnr {fifz ûüâýþÿûüâýþÿâ�� ¨ á�

�eUhT]W�T^WeVYz � ¨ �m � WY jUTd^WeV ej [eUsWVX TX\p\ep]\fi[\Z\VzYhT]] ep\V \deVehbm Ye Ö WY ^Ts\V TY \weX\kVe`Yfqnr jThW]b ej \wp\d^\Z c\af ZWY^Uf äåqç�ÁʵÜr WY deVYWY^\V^[W _ ^_\ c\a`\Y^Y ]\j^ cb pTU\V^Y

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Page 22: SLIDmarch03 - National Bureau of Economic Researchdenardim/research/SlidRestud04.pdf · z ò ó ó ó ô ó ó ó õ W V ^ \ U Y T Ö m T ]] e d T ^ W e V Y ¦ q é r Ê Â r m X

��� ¾��� ��PqWr ie]n\ cTds[TUZ ^_\ TX\V^Y� nT]`\ j`Vd^WeVYm Y^TU WVXjUeh í z V\w^ p\UWeZ ^_\ TX\V^ WY Z\TZ jeU Y`U\ _\Vd\Z\UWn\Y ^W]W b eV]b jUeh c\a`\Y^YqWWr dehp ^\ ^_\ WVnTUWTV^ ZWY^UWc ^WeVqWWWr W \UT^\ eV ^_\ Xen\UVh\V^ c`ZX\^qWnr W \UT^\ eV c\a`\Y^Y

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Page 23: SLIDmarch03 - National Bureau of Economic Researchdenardim/research/SlidRestud04.pdf · z ò ó ó ó ô ó ó ó õ W V ^ \ U Y T Ö m T ]] e d T ^ W e V Y ¦ q é r Ê Â r m X

���� P����vZZ Y\a`\V^WT]]b s\b \]\h\V^Y ^e heZ\] \deVehW\YzR vX\ Y^U`d^`U\ TVZ WVdeh\ `Vd\U TWV^b���m Ve WV^\UX\V\UT^WeVT] ]WVsYfvddWZ\V^T] c\a`\Y^YzqWr U\ZWY^UWc ^\Z \a`T]]b ^e p\ep]\ T]Wn\qWWr XWn\V ^e ^_\ Z\d\TY\Z�Y d_W]ZU\VR vZZ c\a`\Y^ he^Wn\z��� Ï c\a`\Y^ he^Wn\R vZZ pUeZ`d^WnW b ]WVsz��� Ï c\a`\Y^ he^Wn\ Ï pUeZ`d^WnW b WV_\UW TVd\

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Page 24: SLIDmarch03 - National Bureau of Economic Researchdenardim/research/SlidRestud04.pdf · z ò ó ó ó ô ó ó ó õ W V ^ \ U Y T Ö m T ]] e d T ^ W e V Y ¦ q é r Ê Â r m X

� ( � # $ � � � $ ( � � � $ ) ! & � ) # � � � � � � � ) ! )

* 0 , 0 � + / + , � 0 3 � + � 7 � , - + � J �

� � � � + 3 3 D 0 4 + I 7 J J � < E E ? �

� � � � 0 . J + . � < E E M �

� < K > � / / 0 . 0 J : 7 + / 0 3 � < E E > �

� < K ? = � - 7 . K � + 8 K * , + J K � < E E B �

� < E = 7 I ! * � - 7 . K � + 8 K * , + J K � < E E B �

" # ? @ = $ 7 / 3 : % 7 & + / � 3 K � < E E F �

' G = J + + / + ( /

) A @ = 0 C 1 : . - K $ 7 / 3 : % 7 & + / 0 3 � < E E F �

* + , � � 1 1 + / / � < E E G �- . : 3 3 0 , 4 + / 0 3 K � < E F B �

* + / , 0 : � � + , � 0 . � < E E ? �* 0 , 0 � + / + , � 0 3 � + 1 2 7 J + . / 7 2 0 / - 2

" 3 < @ = J + + / + ( /

4 5 3 A @ � � + 4 : 0 . + 0 , . K J + + / + ( /

6 K E > 7 K E F - 0 8 : / 0 3 H 7 � / 8 � / , 0 / : 7

8 9 H E K > : . / + , 1 K / , 0 . J + , J J 2 0 , +

8 : < < K G � 0 / - 2 < � 7 � + . / 7 5 + ; � + J / 4 : J / , KLt

Page 25: SLIDmarch03 - National Bureau of Economic Researchdenardim/research/SlidRestud04.pdf · z ò ó ó ó ô ó ó ó õ W V ^ \ U Y T Ö m T ]] e d T ^ W e V Y ¦ q é r Ê Â r m X

< , 0 . J + , * + , - + . / 0 1 + 9 + 0 3 / 2 : . / 2 + / 7 8 * + , - + . / 9 : / 29 + 0 3 / 2 D + 0 3 / 2 . + 1 0 / : C + 7 ,, 0 / : 7 I : . : < = > = ? @ = A @ = G @ = ; + , 7 9 + 0 3 / 2

= K � K 4 0 / 0K G M K F B ? E > M B @ E M E B > K B H < > K @

> 7 : . / + , 1 + . + , 0 / : 7 . 0 3 3 : . % J- + ; � 0 3 5 + ; � + J / J / 7 0 3 3K G F K G F F ? F G E E @ E B < F

> 7 : . / + , 1 + . + , 0 / : 7 . 0 3 3 : . % J- � . + ; � 0 3 5 + ; � + J / J / 7 - 2 : 3 4 , + .K M B K G B F ? F G E E < E E < F

? . + 3 : . % @ 8 , 7 4 � - / : C : / 6 : . 2 + , : / 0 . - +K M B K G E B ? E F @ E ? E E < F

? . + 3 : . % @ 8 0 , + . / A J 5 + ; � + J / � 7 / : C +K > > K F A < A M F F G E > < @ @ < E

� 7 / 2 3 : . % J @ 8 0 , + . / A J 5 + ; � + J / � 7 / : C + 0 . 4 8 , 7 4 � - / : C : / 6 : . 2 + , : / 0 . - +K G @ K F G < B A ? F E E > < @ @ < EL|

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� ( � # $ � � � $ ( � � � $ ) ! & � ) # � � � � � " $ & � ) ! )

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� � � 0 J = K � K

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" # M @ = ? � 1 ! � - K � � , C + 6 J- � 9 + 4 + . � < E E B �

' G K B G = J + + / + ( /

) > @ = 0 C 1 : . - K ? � 1 ! � - K � � , C + 6 J- � 9 + 4 + . � < E E B �

* + , J + + / + ( /

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" 3 < > = J + + / + ( /

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1 0 8 : / 0 3 < , 0 . J + , * + , - + . / 0 1 + 9 + 0 3 / 2 : . / 2 + / 7 8 * + , - + . / 9 : / 27 � / 8 � / 9 + 0 3 / 2 D + 0 3 / 2 . + 1 0 / : C + 7 ,, 0 / : 7 , 0 / : 7 I : . : < = > = ? @ = A @ = B @ = ; + , 7 9 + 0 3 / 2

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? . + 3 : . % @ 5 + ; � + J / � 7 / : C +? K @ K F G K F < B ? E F M E > < @ @ M @

� 7 / 2 3 : . % J @ 5 + ; � + J / � 7 / : C + 0 . 4 8 , 7 4 � - / : C : / 6 : . 2 + , : / 0 . - +? K @ K F F K F M E M < F > E > < @ @ M @

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