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Ensuring sustainable development
Savingparadise
Sm
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SIDS
Ensuring sustainable development
Savingparadise
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tate
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SIDS
WMO-No. 973
WMO-No. 973© 2005, World Meteorological OrganizationISBN 92-63-10973-7
NOTEThe designations employed and the presentation of mate-rial in this publication do not imply the expression of anyopinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of theWorld Meteorological Organization concerning the legalstatus of any country, territory, city or area, or of itsauthorities, or concerning the delimitations of its frontiersor boundaries.
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Foreword
Introduction
Climate change and sea-level rise
Natural and environmental hazards
Coastal zone management
Freshwater
Energy
Tourism
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and regionalcooperation
Conclusion
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as well as in climate variability and change andtheir impacts on sea-level rise.
A unique feature of WMO is that its efforts aregeared to supporting the activities of theNational Meteorological and HydrologicalServices of SIDS, while ensuring that the coor-dination mechanism and systems aredeveloped and implemented by SIDS them-selves. This booklet provides a brief overviewof this distinctive global system in which eachcountry contributes according to its means andbenefits according to its needs in all socio-economic and environmental areas whereweather, climate and water play a role.
This brochure aims to contribute to awarenessof the potential contribution of weather,climate and water to sustainable developmentand thus to the formulation and implementa-tion of the Mauritius Programme of Action forthe sustainable development of SIDS and thewell being of their populations now and in thefuture.
M. Jarraud(Secretary-General)
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Since the adoption of the BarbadosProgramme of Action (BPoA) for the SmallIsland Developing States (SIDS) in 1994, consid-erable efforts have been deployed toimplement the high-priority programme areasdefined therein. Today, the achievements mayseem meagre when compared to the objectivesof the BPoA and the increasing challengesfaced by SIDS in areas of trade, security andenvironment. This is true for most developingcountries, but particularly so for SIDS.
The impediments are daunting, whether theybe natural, indigenous or originate fromglobal conditions. While the responsibility formeeting their socio-economic aspirationsshould rest primarily with the SIDS themselves,the world community, including strategic part-ners, UN system organizations and the privatesector, have the duty to commit resources andmeans of support. The support should bebased on the strategies and the Programme ofAction that SIDS will evolve at the 2005Mauritius International Meeting to Review theImplementation of the Programme of Actionfor the Sustainable Development of SIDS.
WMO has been at the forefront of collabora-tion with SIDS to ensure endogenous capacitybuilding and the availability of some of thesophisticated products that recent advances inmeteorology, hydrology, oceanography andrelated sciences can provide. These includeobservational data from all countries onweather, atmospheric composition, the oceansurface and surface and underground freshwa-ter from a global network of in situ stationsand satellite systems.
WMO ensures the availability around the clockof the most reliable weather forecasts andwarnings with as much lead time as possible.Seasonal forecasts up to a year ahead are alsobeing developed nationally or globally. TheOrganization gives particular importance toproducts that are essential for socio-economicsectors, including agriculture, water-resourcesmanagement, energy and tourism and forenvironmental protection. It also promotesresearch and capacity building in these areas,
Foreword
Ensuring sustainable development
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Small Island Developing States (SIDS) arehighly vulnerable to natural disasters, as wellas human-induced factors. These have beenhighlighted by the Alliance of Small IslandDeveloping States (AOSIS), which has playeda key role in drawing attention to theconcerns of SIDS and calling for urgent action.Indeed, the threats can be mitigated throughappropriate strategies that are based on thebasic principles of sustainable developmentand the concerted efforts of the countriesconcerned, and with the support of the inter-national community.
Introduction
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the global network of the NMHSs under theaegis of WMO.
The Mauritius International Meeting to Reviewthe Implementation of the Programme ofAction for the Suitable Development of SIDSwill also build on the outcomes of the 2002World Summit on Sustainable Development. Itwill review the achievements over the last10 years and highlight areas of the BPoArequiring further implementation. Issues suchas trade, good governance, security, healthand other social issues should be seen as beingholistically and intimately linked with environ-mental aspects of sustainable development.
Environmental security lays the foundation forsustainable development. Both the policy-makers and the public will need to ensure thatadvances in sciences such as meteorology,hydrology, oceanography and the environ-ment are adequately understood andharnessed to address issues such as thoserelated to climate change and sea-level rise,natural and environmental hazards, fresh-water resources, energy, and coastal zonemanagement. The National Meteorologicaland Hydrological Services in each of the coun-tries should be able to provide relatedinformation, including forecasts and warningsof natural hazards and day-to-day variations inweather and climate, which affect all aspectsof daily activities in agriculture, tourism, andother socio-economic activities.
As part of WMO’s global network, the NMHSsof SIDS can access the most sophisticatedproducts in near-real-time and advance fore-casts of extreme weather events several daysahead, movement of atmospheric and oceanicpollutants, seasonal predictions and climateprojections. In this way, the NMHSs are at theforefront of efforts to address some of themajor challenges concerning weather,climate, water and the environment of the21st century.
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Intr
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From Barbados toMauritius and beyond
As an outcome of the 1992 United NationsConference on Environment and Development,the 1994 Barbados Conference on theSustainable Development of Small IslandDeveloping States not only recognized commonenvironmental challenges facing SIDS, but alsohighlighted the meteorological, hydrologicaland oceanographic issues in many of these coun-tries. The Barbados Programme of Action (BPoA),the principal output of the Conference, identi-fied 14 issues and/or focal areas as urgentpriorities. All these areas require inputs of vary-ing degree from the National Meteorologicaland Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of SIDS and
SIDSProgramme priorityareas requiring significant inputs from NationalMeteorological andHydrological Services(NMHSs)
■ Climate change and sea-level rise
■ Natural and environmental hazards
■ Management of waste
■ Coastal and marine resources
■ Freshwater resources
■ Land resources
■ Energy resources
■ Tourism resources
■ Biodiversity resources
■ National institutions and administrative capacity
■ Regional institutions and technicalcooperation
■ Transport and communications
■ Science and technology
Tropical cyclones are among the major chal-lenges facing SIDS in the Atlantic, Pacific andIndian Oceans. Because of their frequency andseverity, they constitute some of the greatestthreats to the socio-economic well-being ofthe populations. These tropical systems mayalso be beneficial, however, as they replenishthe aquifers upon which most SIDS depend fortheir freshwater.
Longer-term climatic variations may be evenmore devastating to SIDS, since sea-level rise,resulting from climatic change, could perma-nently drown many of the low-lying islands ofthe Indian Ocean, the Caribbean and thePacific. Sea-level rise would also affect thecoastal areas and freshwater sources of allisland States, as well as agriculture, fisheries,tourism and infrastructure.
Coastal zone management is therefore criticaland requires data on tides, water levels, seatemperature, winds and coastal ocean circula-tion. Meteorological, hydrological and
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SIDS: some of the challenges
oceanographic information is essential for thedesign, construction, operation and manage-ment of infrastructure such as dams, roads,commercial and domestic buildings, harboursand bridges.
Meteorological and climatological informationis vital for day-to-day agricultural operations,as well as for designing and constructionpurposes.
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Weather and climate affect most sectors of theeconomy such as agriculture, transport, fishingand tourism, as well as leisure activities. TheNational Meteorological and HydrologicalServices are responsible for monitoringweather, climate and water resources, for fore-casting the weather, and disseminating theinformation to users. They also provide fore-casts and early warnings to alertdecision-makers and the population in a timelymanner.
Addressing these issues requires action atnational, regional and global levels. The prior-ity areas listed in the BPoA require theapplication of meteorological, hydrological,oceanographic, and other environmentalsciences to everyday life and decision-making.
They are crucial elements in the quest of SIDSto achieve sustainable development. While thesupport of the international community isnecessary, it is the ownership and commitmentof the States, individually and collectively, thatwill ensure a sustainable future for their popu-lations. WMO’s structure and operationsenable each nation to build its sustainable
Ensuring sustainable development
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Weather and climate affect all sectors of the economy. For Small Island Developing States, fishing is animportant export industry, while fish often form the basic form of sustenance for many.
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development though its own NMHS, withWMO providing the overall framework forinternational cooperation.
■ Land loss and beach erosion
■ Damage to infrastructure
■ Damage to coral reefs
■ Impacts on the economy
■ Food security
■ Water resources
■ Human health
Source: First National Communication of theRepublic of the Maldives to the UnitedNations Framework Convention onClimate Change
Vulnerabilities of theMaldives to climatechange
Some island States, such as Kiribati, Tuvalu,the Marshall Islands and the Maldives, havetheir highest elevations only 4 metres abovemean sea-level and are therefore highlyvulnerable to projected sea-level rise.
The rise of sea-level globally is due primarily tothe expansion of ocean water resulting froman increase in ocean temperature and, to asmaller extent, to the melting of glaciers.Since 1861, mean annual global surfacetemperature has increased by an average of0.6°C and it is most likely that this increase willcontinue in the 21st century. The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC), established by WMO and the UnitedNations Environment Programme (UNEP), inits Third Assessment Report, attributes thisincrease mainly to human activity.
In recognition of the potential adverseimpacts of climate change resulting from the
greenhouse effect, the United NationsFramework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) set an objective of stabilizing“greenhouse-gas (GHG) concentrations in theatmosphere at a level that would preventdangerous anthropogenic interference withthe climate systems”.
It is estimated that SIDS contribute less than1 per cent to global GHG emissions and theyare not yet obligated to implement GHG miti-gation measures. Nevertheless, many haveshown a commitment to the objectives of theUNFCCC by completing inventories of GHGemissions as a step towards achieving greaterenergy independence and implementing GHGreduction for sustainable development.
According to the IPCC, during the last100 years, sea-level has risen at a rate of 1-2 mm/yr and is projected to rise 9-88 cm by theend of the present century. Such a rise wouldpose grave problems for SIDS. A large part ofthe Majuro atoll, for example, which is hometo 50 per cent of the population of the
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The classic atoll is composed of a coral reef encircling a shallow lagoon.
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Small low-lying islands are at particular risk fromsea-level rise induced by climate warming.
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The potential of using new knowledgeof the El Niño/Southern Oscillation(ENSO) phenomenon for climate predic-tion on seasonal-to-interannual scales insome regions was identified some10 years ago. Accordingly, WMO initi-ated CLIPS to assist countries, inparticular SIDS, to access regional andglobal climate monitoring and predic-tion products and, with their localknowledge, provide users in sectors suchas agriculture, disaster planning,tourism and water resources with a toolfor planning.
Climate Informationand Prediction Services(CLIPS)
The Data Rescue (DARE) project waslaunched with the aim of assisting devel-oping countries to manage, preserve andanalyse their data efficiently. This projecthas allowed valuable data in manuscriptform to be transferred to microfilm andcomputer-accessible format. In 1995, aDARE project commenced for theCaribbean. Recently, more advancedtechniques, such as digital scanners andcameras, have enabled data on manu-script to be “captured”.
Some NMHSs have lost data fromdamage by fire and water. The propercollection, processing and archival ofdata will lessen the risks of similartragedies in the future. Rainfall data inthe Caribbean and the South-West Pacificare available as of the mid-19th century.The Barbados monthly rainfall datasetdates from 1843 and climate observa-tions for Apia, Samoa, go back to 1890.
Date rescue (DARE)
Marshall Islands, and significant landmass inKiribati would be lost. Some cays of theBahamas, and the Turks and Caicos islands inthe Caribbean might be inundated. Sea-levelrise would lead to rapid land loss throughsubmergence of lowlands, loss of wetlands anderosion of beaches in most SIDS.
As its contribution to mitigating the adverseeffects of climate change, reducing vulnerabil-ity and identifying options for adaptation,WMO has been implementing numerousprogrammes worldwide, focused on promot-ing the collection and analysis of climate data,encouraging the development of capacities forthe prediction of climate variability and forclimate change projection.
Some of WMO’s initiatives related to climatechange and sea-level rise are:
■ Ensuring the ready availability of high-qualitydata for climate research and climatechange detection;
■ Promoting research on reducing uncertain-ties in climate change projection and thepotential impacts of human activities onclimate, including:
■ Increased accuracy about the impact ofclimate change at the regional level and,as far as possible at local level, on socio-economic development;
■ Increased accuracy about the potentialimpacts of climate change on the occur-rence and intensity of extreme weatherand climate events;
■ Supporting the assessment activities of theIPCC and encouraging the participation ofdeveloping countries in the process.
■ Supporting the UNFCCC process, especiallythough the provision of scientific inputs.
Understanding climate variability is importantfor planning adaptation for climate change. Thedata collected, processed and exchanged by theNMHSs also form the basis on which vulnerabil-ity assessments, adaptation strategies and policyguidelines will be developed by SIDS.
SIDS are highly vulnerable to weather- andclimate-related natural and environmentalhazards, such as tropical cyclones, floods anddroughts, which cause death and injury andeconomic losses. During the 10-year period1992-2001, about 90 per cent of all naturaldisasters worldwide were of meteorological orhydrological origin. Other events, which can bejust as devastating, are storm surges andmudslides. Other catastrophic events are volca-noes, earthquakes and tsunamis.
Early warning systems
WMO supports the efforts of each affectedSIDS to develop its own warning system whichis scientifically proven and culturally based.Each cyclone basin has its own regional coordi-nation mechanism for monitoring tropicalcyclones, accessing the most sophisticated fore-casts, capacity building, naming of cyclones,and issuing regional forecasts. Each Region hasits own Regional Specialized Meteorological
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Centre for Cyclone Warnings—but theresponsibility of issuing warnings for eachnation rests with its NationalMeteorological Service.
The heavy rains associated with large tropicalsystems often trigger flooding.
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Caribbean
Ivan was one of the most powerful hurri-canes of the century. It tore through thesouthern and western Caribbean in earlySeptember. On 7 September, it roared intoBarbados, ripping off roofs and batteringBridgetown with waves as high as 2 m ontop of a storm surge of about 1.5 m. Theeye moved south of the island and intensi-fied to a category 4 hurricane as it hitGrenada the next day, destroying some90 per cent of the island’s buildings. Ivanpounded the Cayman Islands as acategory 5 hurricane (sustained winds of256 km/h with much higher gusts. Abouthalf the island’s 15 000 homes weredamaged or lost, but the greatest impactwas the storm surge and the high waves itgenerated. Houses were washed away andbuildings were inundated by floodwaters.Many of the inhabitants sought refugefrom the water by climbing on to rooftops.
Jeanne, in mid-September, affected the USVirgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the DominicanRepublic, Haiti, the Bahamas, and the USstate of Florida. The worst damageoccurred in Haiti. Heavy rains totallingsome 33 cm in the northern mountainscaused severe flooding and mudslides,particularly in the coastal city of Gonaïves,where about 80 000 of the 100 000 resi-dents were affected. Although the weakestof the four hurricanes to hit the area inrapid succession in two months, Jeanne left3 006 people dead in Haiti, of whom 2 826were in Gonaïves alone. Another 2 601people were injured and an estimated300 000 were left homeless.
Indian OceanBetween 26 January and 4 February, tropi-cal cyclone Elita hit Madagascar severaltimes, causing widespread destruction andleaving thousands homeless. On 7 March,
Tropical Cyclone Gafilo struck the island,killing 200 people and affecting the livesand livelihoods of some 800 000 others.The diameter of the area of impact wasmore than 400 km, with recorded windgusts of over 250 km/h. Gafilo was thefiercest storm to have struck Madagascar in20 years.
North Pacific
Ten tropical cyclones hit the FederatedStates of Micronesia between April andDecember: Sudal, Omais, Tingting, Chaba,Songda, Sarika, Tokage, Nock-ten,Nanmadol and Talas. Sudal was the firstand the strongest. It struck the island groupof Yap with winds of over 200 km/h, wreak-ing havoc. The main hospital was badlydamaged and the airport and governmentbuildings were affected. Many houses werecompletely destroyed. Water and electricitysupplies and telecommunications to 99%of the population were disrupted.
South Pacific
In the first week of January, TropicalCyclone Heta moved through the SouthPacific islands of Tokelau, Samoa, AmericanSamoa, Tonga, Niue and Cook Islands, leav-ing behind damage of various degrees.Niue was by far the worst affected to theextent that its future was in the balance formonths afterwards. The worst storm inliving memory in Niue, Heta causeddamage amounting to an estimatedUS$ 24.6 million. The capital Alofi was flat-tened by 300 km/h winds. A storm surgeand huge waves engulfed the 18 m cliffswhich ring the island. In February, TropicalCyclone Ivy cut through the centre ofVanuatu, tearing down homes, uprootingtrees and cutting communications.
SIDS and tropical cyclones in 2004
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Damage inflicted on the infrastructure of Niue, South Pacific, by Tropical Cyclone Heta in January 2004: (above)the hospital; and (below, left) the Justice Department
Hurricane Ivan in September 2004 destroyed 90 per cent of Grenada’s buildings.
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Other hazards
Floods
Floods are among the most disastrous events.Tropical cyclones can cause intense rainfallwith accompanying floods especially in low-lying areas. Flooding is often aggravated byhuman interference with the runoff regime asa result of land use or blocked watercourses.Most flooding in the Caribbean has resultedfrom, or been exacerbated by, the removal oftrees and other vegetation from hill-slopesand the dumping of waste in river channels.Haiti, for example, is vulnerable to floods andmudslides—problems often made worse bymassive and continuing deforestation, woodbeing the basic domestic fuel.
Many SIDS lack a comprehensive flood-management plan, but some are putting plansin place. Floodplain mapping exercises are inprogress as pilot projects in Barbados, Trinidadand St. Vincent, among others, with the aim ofalleviating disastrous flooding of rivers.
The NMHSs are called upon to assist inconducting studies on frequency/intensity/duration curves of rainfall. Such information isused to calculate the flows for sizing culvertsand storm-drainage works in densely popu-lated urban areas where flooding frequentlyoccurs. For this purpose, predictions of rainfallintensity and duration are essential. Long-term data on weather, climate and thehydrological regime are required for thedesign and planning of some of the infrastruc-tural work in risk management andvulnerability reduction
Drought
For SIDS, drought conditions may arise rela-tively quickly when there is a markedreduction in the rainfall regime. Data collec-tion, storage and analysis and thedissemination of related forecasts and warn-ings, as well as weather, climate and waterinformation to the various end-users, areincreasingly vital to many sectors of the econ-omy in mitigating the impacts of drought.
Landslides
Landslides are caused by the saturation of soiland rocks such as clays, mudstones, and loosesandstones, during the heavy rains whichnormally accompany tropical cyclones. Whenthese materials lie on steep slopes and satura-tion reduces the frictional forces, slip planestend to develop, and the soil and rock massesbegin to creep downhill. Some can movequickly, however, and even turn intoavalanches, which can bury entire villages inthe valleys below. Housing and infrastructure,such as roads and utility poles, can bedestroyed, even by slow downhill movement.
In the year 2000, two cyclones struck the islandof Madagascar within a two-week period,triggering 280 landslides that caused wide-spread socio-economic and environmentaldamage. There was considerable dislocationof human settlements, as more than 100 000 people hadto be evacuated and relocated away from thepaths of the landslides. In addition, there wasconsiderable damage to road, rail and otherinfrastructure.
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Haiti is vulnerable to hurricanes, floods andmudslides.
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Pollution of groundwater,surface and marine waterSIDS have scarce surface freshwater aquifers andmany rely on groundwater. Global warmingleading to higher sea-level will also cause ahigher incidence of flooding, with increasedsaltwater intrusion into surface and ground-water sources.
In the context of waste management in SIDS,protection of the environment from pollutionis extremely important for sustainable devel-opment and in particular for the tourism andfishing industries.
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The monitoring of air quality and the trans-port of transboundary air pollutants, as well asprediction of the movement and intensity ofpollutants and toxic chemicals in the air andover the oceans, form essential informationfor taking suitable and timely measures toavert the impacts of the pollutants.
Some island States are now undertaking flood-plain mapping exercises to avoid some of thedamage caused by flooding
Coastal zone management
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Coastal and marine resources play acrucial role in the socio-economicdevelopment of all Small IslandDeveloping States. These assets areexploited in a variety of ways and by awide range of stakeholders. Coastsprovide opportunities for, amongothers, housing and settlements, agri-culture, tourism and recreation, fishingand mariculture, mining, transportand waste disposal. Through theseactivities, many SIDS are able toprovide shelter, food, jobs and otherforms of support for their populations.
Coastal and marineresources
The importance of coastal areas to the liveli-hood of island populations and the competitionamong stakeholders for access to them, causeresources to deteriorate rapidly. The damagemanifests itself in many ways, including the lossof mangroves and other coastal ecosystems,mining of sand, accelerated beach erosion,degradation and destruction of marine ecosys-tems and vegetation (e.g. coral reefs andseagrasses), poor water quality due to pollution
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Beach and coastal erosion are problems shared by SIDS and low-lying countries.
(including that from external sources, such ashazardous waste which is transported across theoceans where many SIDS are located), anddepletion of fish stocks. These effects are largelythe outcomes of unsustainable practices whichare often triggered by necessity and poverty.
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Coastal erosion
Intense tropical systems trigger floods butother hazards, also. The population ofDominica still remembers Hurricane David in1979. Homes were destroyed and agriculturewas severely affected, but the hurricane alsocaused massive coastal erosion. For example,several roads were cut off when mudslides andhuge waves eroded beaches. Heavy seas exac-erbated the erosion, which was estimated at0.7 m/yr for the period 1970–1984.
Beach erosion
Beach erosion can be a disaster, especially if ahurricane induces storm surges. In all SIDS,beach erosion is a hazard which takes place S
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year after year, in many cases unabated. InGrand Turk, Turks and Caicos Islands, it is esti-mated that the rate of erosion was0.3-0.45 m/yr for the period 1906–1969. Winterstorms with northerly swells play a highlysignificant role in beach erosion in theCaribbean. The mining of sand is another activ-ity which destabilizes beaches, and theimproper construction of groynes prevents thelongshore movement of sand. Stable beacheshave to be maintained if tourism is not tosuffer.
The problem of coastal degradation in SIDS isexacerbated by the threat of global warmingand rising sea-level, as the ecosystems will haveto cope with the anthropogenic stresses identi-fied above in combination with the negativeeffects of global warming.
The Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange has indicated that projected climatechange would lead to higher water levels and,consequently, a higher incidence of floodingand inundation in SIDS (most of which are low-lying), increased wave erosion and saltwaterintrusion into coastal aquifers and loss ofcoastal infrastructure and will threaten thesurvival of key ecosystems. Specifically, theoccurrence of coral bleaching, which is associ-ated with elevated sea-surface temperatures, isalready evident throughout SIDS in theCaribbean, Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean.Episodes of bleaching are more intense, forexample, during El Niño years when sea-surfacetemperatures are higher.
Groynes properly installed help prevent beacherosion.
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managers to plan for, and respond to,medium- and longer-term concerns (e.g. sea-level rise), as well as short-term, present-dayneeds. The process necessarily draws heavilyupon a wide array of disciplines, includingmeteorology, hydrology and other Earth andbiological sciences. Comprehensive ICAMprogrammes have been successfully imple-mented in a few SIDS at both the nationallevel (e.g. Barbados) and the regional (Pacificisland countries) level. While many other SIDShave implemented isolated projects, fullnational programmes with a long-termcommitment for funding should be regardedas urgent priorities.
More specifically, the skills and expertisederived from training in fields such as meteor-ology, climatology, marine meteorology,oceanography and hydrology provide thescientific basis for understanding the dynamicsof basic processes, such as coastal erosion and
Ecosystems: protectingbiodiversity
Mangroves are highly productive ecosystemsand provide a valuable habitat for shrimps andother marine life, and birds. Their existence isthreatened by sea-level rise, severe storms andpollution.
Integrated coastal areamanagement
It is now widely acknowledged that inte-grated coastal area management (ICAM) isperhaps the most appropriate framework forlooking after coastal and marine resources ina sustainable manner. ICAM is a dynamicprocess that seeks to achieve maximumeconomic and social benefits for all stake-holders without jeopardizing the coastalresource base. It is a tool that allows
A healthy mangrove (left) and the consequences of pollution after an oil spill at sea (right)
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deposition. For example, the distribution ofenergy, sediment and even organisms (e.g. fishlarvae) within the coastal and marine zones isdriven largely by waves, tides and currents.Thus, the formation of beaches and dunes, thecreation of natural inlets and bays for theconstruction of harbours and safe anchorageand of vital habitats and aggregation of fishpopulations (to name but a few) cannot beproperly understood without reference tothese disciplines.
Moreover, SIDS, with their life-sustainingcoastal resources, are among the groups of
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Coral reefs and fish stocks are at risk from rising sea-surface temperatures, with significant adverse consequences for biodiversity, tourism, recreation and fishing.
countries most at risk from the projectedimpacts of global warming. SIDS have nooption therefore but to decrease their vulner-ability, build up resilience and implementappropriate adaptation options. Such strate-gies cannot be properly designed orimplemented without an interdisciplinaryapproach that is strongly grounded in acombination of sciences that includes meteor-ology, hydrology and oceanography. Withoutdoubt, the training and capacity building inthese fields undertaken in many SIDS by theWorld Meteorological Organization, will becritical in preparing these countries to bettermanage these risks.
The Earth has abundant resources ofwater, but the amount that is easily acces-sible for sustaining human life is minuteby comparison. The imbalance is furtherunderscored when we consider the waterresources available to SIDS. By definition,they have limited landmasses which donot allow for extensive surface water-bodies or for large underground sources ofwater. The restricted water resources ofthe SIDS are extremely vulnerable to bothlong-term climate change and to shorter-term climate variability, such as the seriesof drought and wet years induced in somecountries by occurrences of El Niño and LaNiña.
Resources and availabilityOn some of the islands, because of the smallsize of the watersheds and catchment areas,freshwater occurs either as thin groundwaterlenses floating on saltwater, or as small riversand lakes. The low-lying atolls of the Pacificand Indian Oceans, e.g. the Maldives, Tuvaluand the Cook Islands, and the Bahamas,
Freshwater
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Due to their limited land area, SIDS have restrictedfreshwater resources which are under threat fromboth pollution and climate variability.
together with other limestone islands such asBarbados and Antigua, are all dependent ongroundwater, as well as on the direct use ofrainwater.
The thin, underground freshwater lenses ofthese islands are at risk from sea-level rise,which would significantly reduce their extentand thus the volume of available freshwater.Reduced precipitation would also reducereplenishment of the lenses. Increased demand,resulting in overpumping, causes both saltwaterintrusion and the reduction of freshwater.
SIDS must have more efficient water-resourcesmanagement if they are to sustain and improvethe living standards of their populations.Efficient management requires rainfall, riverand and underground flow data collection oversufficiently long time periods, rigorous analysisof these data and rainfall and flood forecasts—and this means that SIDS must have efficientnational meteorological and hydrological insti-tutions. Collaboration among the variousStates in sharing scant technical and financialresources is also a prerequisite.
Island drought
Mediterranean droughts impact theislands of Cyprus and Malta to theextent that they have serious sea-waterintrusion problems. The demand forpotable water in Barbados has doubledfrom 90 million litres per day in the1960s to over 180 million litres today.Barbados also has increased salinityproblems.
Islands like Dominica and St. Vincent inthe Caribbean are largely dependent onsmall surface-water sources. Their rela-tively small rivers can be affected byreduced rainfall in the watershed, or beeasily polluted by upstream anthro-pogenic activity. Dominica has alreadybeen recording reduced flows fromlower rainfall, in the last few decades.
The water resources of some SIDS have beendeveloped effectively but in most, however, noagency can be considered a complete NationalHydrological Service (NHS) which makes hydro-logical observations, collects, analyses andarchives these data and publishes the results.Some governments have appointed lead agen-cies in water but, for the vast majority, theirmain task is distribution for public supply.
In most SIDS, hydrological data collection andprocessing and rainfall prediction are notadequate. WMO’s World Hydrological CycleObserving System (WHYCOS), launched about
World Hydrological CycleObserving System
10 years ago, is intended to build capacity ofthe National Hydrological Services (NHSs) of aregion by strengthening the observationnetworks, improving the data-managementsystems (thus allowing the Services to provideproducts specific to end-user needs) andpromoting the free international exchange ofthese data.
CARIB-HYCOS and SOUTH-WEST PACIFICHYCOS, which are regional components ofHYCOS currently being developed, will meanthat integrated water-resource managementwill become a reality for SIDS in the Caribbean
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Access to freshwater for human and livestock consumption, as well as for domestic and agricultural use is aprerequisite for sustainable development. The situation is critical in all developing countries and SIDS inparticular.
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Energy is one of the most critical factors insustainable development, yet energy genera-tion from fossil fuel is held responsible forsome of the environmental problems facingsociety today. Some of the most critical tech-nologies for sustainable development areenergy technologies.
Towards sustainabilityIncreased greenhouse-gas emissions are consid-ered to be the major contributors to climatechange and sea-level rise, which, as we havealready seen, can lead to significant loss of thecoastal lands that constitute a significantproportion of the valuable land areas of manylow-lying SIDS, with ensuing and severe socio-economic disruption. In addition, SIDS have thevery real problem of the negative impact ofhigh energy prices on their already fragileeconomies.
SIDS therefore need to move to a more sustain-able energy system, which will not only have alesser impact on their economies, but will alsobe more environmentally friendly. Renewableforms of energy must play a more significantrole in the energy mix of these States.
Energy
Renewables refer to energy sourceswhich can be sustained indefinitely.Renewable energy flow includes insola-tion, wind, biomass production, flowingwater, geothermal, or ocean thermal,tides). All these flows, except for geo-thermal flow, can be said to be derivedfrom the Sun, and they can be convertedinto useful power.
Other key technologies, which do notproduce energy directly but can inte-grate renewable technologies intoenergy supply systems, are also availableto assist in optimizing global energy use.
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Despite certain difficulties, renewable energy is aviable option for SIDS.
These are storage technologies (e.g.batteries, seasonal thermal storage,pumped hydropower), which allowenergy flows to be used when and whereneeded; high power semi-conductorsallow efficient integration into the grid;energy conversion technologies (gasifi-cation of biomass) may expand optionsfor renewable energy; fuel cells canproduce electricity from hydro-carbonsmore efficiently than direct combustion.
Adapted from A New Power Base, by K.L. Kozlof andR.C. Dower (1993)
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The renewables that are currently available tomost SIDS are wind, solar, biomass and, to alesser extent, ocean thermal energy conversion ,and mini-hydropower. These options are not allequally exploitable or economically viable, butthey are, generally, more environmentallyfriendly and economically sustainable thanhydrocarbons.
While there are a few exceptional cases of devel-oping countries achieving a contribution ofrenewable energy greater than 50 per cent totheir total energy supply, in Latin America andthe Caribbean, for example, a figure between10 per cent and 20 per cent is currently morerealistic and achievable. Curaçao, a smallCaribbean island, produces more than 50 percent of its total energy demand from wind. It isestimated that Barbados could produce 33 percent of its total energy demand by 2010 fromrenewable sources; and this does not take intoaccount the 36 000 solar heaters currently in use.
Most of these energy forms depend very muchon reliable meteorological and hydrologicalinformation and forecasts for their design, sitingand efficient operation:
■ Ocean thermal energy conversion requiresoceanographic data, including, but notlimited to, current sea temperatures andsea-bed morphology;
■ Wind and solar energy, which are alreadybeing used extensively worldwide, requireconsiderable meteorological data collectionand analysis;
■ (Mini-)hydropower, which could be impor-tant to SIDS, requires careful hydrologicalmonitoring, data collection and analysis, aswell as projection.
The contribution of NMHSs is vital if SIDS are toutilize renewable forms of energy more exten-sively. Despite some difficulties, appropriatelychosen renewable energy is still a viable optionfor SIDS.
The renewables
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Solar panels on the roof provide power for a largebuilding complex.
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Tourism is one of the largest economic activitiesin the world today and has become one of thelargest earners of foreign currency for SIDS.Tourists’ expenditure can account for as much as95 per cent of the Gross National Product ofsome countries such as the Maldives, and asmuch as 75 per cent of export earnings in thecase of the Bahamas.
Tourism is also a significant contributor toemployment in SIDS, providing jobs for between20 and 70 per cent of the labour force. It is clear,therefore, that any threat to the viability of thisindustry in these States is of major concern.These threats can be both short- and long-term.The annual storm season can pose problems forbeach stability, the structural integrity of thehotel plant, with the need for constant repairsowing to hurricane damage and, indeed, thevery safety and comfort of the tourists.
There is therefore the need for maintenance ofthe beaches and for the proper design of hotelstructures. Day-to-day weather forecasting isalso essential for tourism. In the longer term,impacts of sea-level rise could have adverseconsequences for the industry. Meteorologicaland oceanographic data, particularly concerningthe coastal zone are of prime value for tourismin SIDS.
WMO, in collaboration with the World TourismOrganization, has produced the Handbook onNatural Disaster Reduction in Tourist Areas. This
publication provides technical guidance on howrisk assessments using climatological and hydro-logical data provided by NMHSs can be used toreduce the vulnerability of tourists and touristfacilities and exploit existing natural resources inan optimal, yet environmentally friendly, fashion.
SIDS have also been assisted by WMO in theareas of maritime and air transport, both areasbeing of critical importance to the touristindustry. The World Area Forecast System(WAFS) enables SIDS to use accurate weatherinformation in a cost effective manner to assistnational and international aviation opera-tions. Marine meteorological forecasts aresimilarly vital for safe maritime activities.
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Tourism is a major earner of foreign currency for SIDS and a significant employer.
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A paradise for tourists—but for how muchlonger?
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In view of the importance of the work ofNational Meteorological and HydrologicalServices (NMHSs) to the sustainable socio-economic development of SIDS, the WorldMeteorological Organization supports itsMembers in developing adequate structuresand building capacity to ensure that relevantand the most sophisticated information is avail-able in a timely manner to address issues ofconcern to them. These include naturalhazards, climate change and sea-level rise andtheir impacts, including environmental degra-dation, and provide support to agriculturalproduction, fishing and mariculture, freshwaterresources, coastal zone management, transportby sea and air, energy and tourism.
For this purpose, the World MeteorologicalOrganization coordinates global meteorologi-cal and hydrological activities of its187 Members and conducts its work throughtechnical commissions, scientific and technicalprogrammes and in collaboration with regionalgroupings. Most of WMO’s efforts are directedtowards supporting NMHSs. In particular, WMOencourages the transfer of technology, cooper-ation and capacity building.
Regional cooperationRegional cooperation forms a cornerstone ofWMO’s strategy in supporting the NMHSs. Theexamples below shows the range and nature ofactivities that WMO supports in this context.
SIDS-Caribbean Project
An example of regional cooperation in theimplementation of the Declaration of Barbadosand the Programme of Action is the regionalproject “Preparedness to Climate Variability and
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Global Change in Small Island Developing States,Caribbean Region: the SIDS-Caribbean Project”.
The Project involves the following countries:Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, Grenada,St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, St.Lucia, the Commonwealth of Dominica,Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda, St. Christopherand Nevis, Anguilla, Dominican Republic, Haiti,Jamaica, Cuba, Turks and Caicos Islands, Bahamas,and the Netherlands Antilles.
The Project ensures enhanced meteorologicaland climatological knowledge and improvedscientific capacities, allowing better planningfor sustainable development in the Caribbeanregion. In particular, the countries concernedwill have greater capability to monitor andpredict weather and climate phenomena. Theywill also have access to up-to-date informationfor policy formulation, strategic planning andimproved awareness and delivery of such infor-mation to decision-makers and the public toensure preparedness against the adverseimpacts of climate variability and globalchange.
WMO programmes
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WMO provides support to the work of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of SIDS in alleconomic sectors, including agricultural production.S
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Located in Barbados, the CIMH is a desig-nated WMO Regional MeteorologicalTraining Centre (RMTC) and, since 1968,when it was established as the CaribbeanMeteorology Institute (CMI), has trainedtechnicians at entry, middle and seniorlevel in meteorology.
The CIMH is an arm of the CaribbeanMeteorological Organization (CMO),which comprises 16 governments in theEnglish-speaking Caribbean.
The CIMH provides seasonal climateprediction for the Caribbean based oninformation from several internationalprediction centres and serves as anarchival centre for climate and hydrolog-ical data. It conducts research in areassuch as agrometeorology, biometeorol-ogy, the climatology of small islands,tropical meteorology, satellite cloudclimatology; floodplain hazard mapping,hydrology of extreme events and effectsof saltwater intrusion on coastalaquifers.
The CaribbeanInstitute forMeteorology andHydrology (CIMH)
South-West Indian Ocean
In the face of recurring hydrometeorologicaldisasters in islands of the South-West IndianOcean (Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius, LaRéunion (France) and Seychelles), systems arebeing put into place to provide for accurate andtimely meteorological information and prod-ucts in support of early warning and disastermitigation.
Improvement of meteorological infrastructurein the countries of the Indian Ocean Commission(IOC) is important, not only from the standpointof preparing for, and minimizing the damagecaused by, severe weather events but also forclimate-change impacts, including sea-level rise.WMO has therefore been working closely withthe IOC Secretariat with a view to enhancingcapacity to monitor and predict weather andclimate phenomena for improved awareness,policy formulation and strategic planning. Thiswill enable decision-makers and the public toaccess information to ensure preparednessagainst the adverse impacts of climate variabilityand global change for long-term sustainabledevelopment.
South-West Pacific Oceanand North Indian Ocean
Climate variability and change are part of a setof local and global environmental changes thatare being addressed in the Pacific and NorthIndian Ocean regions as in other parts of theworld. Human health is one specific aspect ofglobal change that impacts on sustainable devel-opment. Effects on health, either in the short orlong term, are expected to increase the vulnera-bility of Small Island Developing States. Someaspects of concern are vector-borne and diar-rhoeal diseases, acute respiratory infections,malnutrition and injuries caused by weatherextremes.
Applications of forecast information in mitigat-ing negative health impacts of climate variabilityand extreme events, and on assessing vulnera-bility and adaptive capability in Small IslandDeveloping States remain a priority. WMOmaintains close working relationships withregional organizations such as the South PacificRegional Environment Programme and theSouth Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission.
WMO helps Small Island Developing States protecttheir natural resources and infrastructure by reduc-ing vulnerability to natural and environmentalhazards.
Towards strengthenedfuture cooperation
The Nassau Ministerial Declaration on SIDS andthe AOSIS Strategy Paper have noted the wide-ranging problems facing Small IslandDevelop-ing States and how they impinge ontheir development agenda. They recognizeweather, climate and water as playing criticalroles in human welfare and the environment.
The conclusion is that it is of utmost importanceto protect life and property and to make opti-mum use of resources.
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The 10-year review in Mauritius is a landmarkevent that will generate renewed politicalcommitment by all stakeholders on practicalactions in support of SIDS.
Meteorology, hydrology, oceanography andrelated sciences and the National Meteorologicaland Hydrological Services are vital in the imple-mentation of all the areas addressed by theBarbados Programme of Action. The role ofthose Services will be increasingly important inthe implementation of the Programme of Actionon the road beyond Mauritius.
WMO pledges continued support for initiativesin favour of sustainable development and theimplementation of the United NationsMillennium Development Goals in areas thatinclude climate change and sea-level rise, natural and environmental disasters, inte-grated coastal area management, freshwaterresources, protection of land resources, andnew and renewable energy. WMO remainsfirmly committed to the BPoA and willcontinue to support SIDS in achieving sustain-able development for the welfare of theirpopulations now and in the future .
Conclusion
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Ensuring sustainable development
■ Enhancement of national, regional andinternational capacity to monitor the Earth’satmosphere, land and oceans, includingstrategies for integrated global observa-tions, including improved products, analysisand applications to sustainable develop-ment;
■ Development of the regional componentsof the World Hydrological Cycle ObservingSystem, in particular, the Carib-HYCOS andSouth-West Pacific-HYCOS projects forsustained freshwater availability;
■ Strengthen disaster-management capacity atnational and regional levels and vulnerabil-ity assessment (an important factor indetermining the adequacy of early warningsystems, as well as to understand and preventdisasters);
■ Strengthening of institutional, scientific andtechnical capacity at national and regionallevels and building effective response meas-ures to cope with the effects of climatechange and sea-level rise; support initiativesto assess the consequences of climatechange;
■ Risk-management applications, such ashazard mapping, suitable agro-climaticzoning and the establishment of partnershipsas essential tools for land-use and prepared-ness planning;
■ Ensuring that SIDS develop and utilize theirclimate databases for various sectors of theeconomy, including climate predictions;
■ Transfer of appropriate technologies; assis-tance in the establishment of regionalcentres for capacity building and training;establishment and maintenance of informa-tion and databases on new and innovativetechnologies; and
■ Development of a strong and effectivehuman resource base in all fields and acrossall sectors; greater regional and subregionalcooperation for the joint sharing ofresources, technologies and expertise, aswell as at bilateral and multilateral levels.
WMO and the SIDS Programme of Action:
WorldMeteorological Organization
7bis, avenue de la Paix Case postale 2300CH-1211 Geneva 2SwitzerlandTel.: +41 (0) 22 730 83 14Fax: +41 (0) 22 730 80 27E-mail: [email protected]: www.wmo.int
