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Smart Cars to Future Factories: How small companies can make big waves in automation
Maryanna Saenko
Analyst
ACAMP Robotics Seminar
June 3, 2015
Lux Research overview
Helps clients find new business opportunities from emerging technologies in physical and life sciences
Offers ongoing technology and market intelligence, as well as market data and consulting services
Over 250 clients on six continents – multinational corporations, investors, governments, and SMEs
Global reach, with offices in Boston, New York, Amsterdam, Singapore, Shanghai, and Tokyo
Combines deep technical expertise with business analysis to support strategic decisions
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Coverage areas
Advanced Materials Agro Innovation Alternative Fuels Autonomous Systems 2.0 Bio-based Materials & Chemicals Bioelectronics Efficient Building Systems Energy Electronics Energy Storage Exploration and Production Food and Nutrition Printed, Flexible, and Organic
Electronics Solar Sustainable Building Materials Water China Innovation
Large companies tend to dominate the robotics landscape
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Finding the opportunity for start-ups and SMEs
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$102 Billion market in partial automation for vehicles
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Parking Assist, Blind spot detection
Adaptive cruise control, lane merge assist, windshield wiper control, forward collision warning
Autonomous parking, highway autopilot
Tesla claims new highway autopilot features
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Basic Assist Enhanced Assist Partially autonomous Fully autonomous
Google’s iconic “car” lacks a steering wheel and pedals
$102 Billion market in partial automation for vehicles
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Sonar
Carmaker profits
Connectivity and apps
Maps
Software
Wireless hardware
Computer hardware
Wiring
Optical cameras
Lidar
Radar$0
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Connectivityand apps
Software
Wirelesshardware
Opticalcameras
Lidar
$65 Billion opportunity by 2030
Where do SME’s fit in the automotive value chain
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30 meters 30 60 120 150 300
CMOSRadarlidar
CMOS
CMOSIR
Radarlidar
Far IR
CMOSRadarUltrasound
CMOSRadarUltrasound
CMOSRadar
CMOSRadar
CMOSCCDRadar
The automotive market is looking for partnerships and acquisition targets
2014 saw a wave of consolidation and investment in the automotive sensor market:
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49% stake
Acquired for $12.4 B
Exclusive license
Partnership for V2X
antennas
$30 Million Series A $8.5 Million Series A
Finding the opportunity
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Investment in UAVs surges
Big and small players alike are benefiting from recent venture capital interest in UAVs. Funding of drone startups more than doubled in 2014.
The table below summarizes recent investments in drone companies:
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Company Investment Series CloseDate
Total Raised
Investors
DJI $75 million Series C May 2015 $105 million Accel Partners, Sequoia Capital
3D Robotics $64 million Series C April 2015 $99 million Atlantic Bridge, SanDisk Ventures, SK Ventures, WestSummit Capital, Shea Ventures
Airware $25 million Series B July 2014 $40.4 million GE Ventures, Google Ventures, Shasta Ventures, Lemnos Labs
Skycatch $5 million Debt DebtFinancing
April 2015 $24.7 million Google Ventures, ff Venture Capital, Ram Shriram, Richard Levandov, Ellen Levy, VegasTechFund, Urban.Us
DroneDeploy $9 million Series A March 2015 $11 million AngelPad, Data Collective, SoftTech VC, Emergence Capital Partners, Redpoint Ventures, DFJ Fund
Precision Hawk $10 million Series B September 2014
$11 million Intel Capital, Bob Young, Millennium Technology Value Partners, Innovate Indiana Fund
Sky-Futures $3.8 million Series A May 2015 $3.8 million MMC Ventures
CyPhy Works $2.5 million Debt Financing
March 2015 $12.5 million Motorola Solutions, Lux Capital, Felicis Ventures, General Catalyst Partners
Valued at $8 Billon
2013 Units 2013 Revenue 2014 Units 2014 Revenue
110,000 $130 Million 400,000 $500 Million
Application-specific UAV companies emerge in force
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Agricultural drones are primarily focused on land surveillance, and in particular, providing data like the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to help farmers make better decisions regarding crop health.
Oil and gas drones are largely utilized by companies for pipeline inspection, often using NDVI to track where vegetation is dying, as this can serve as a proxy for identifying potential leaks.
Construction drones track progress of construction sites, particularly in areas where it is dangerous for a human to venture, as well as serve as security surveillance systems.
Media/real estate drones primarily capture aerial photography and videography for marketing campaigns at a significantly lower cost than manned systems.
Utilities drones complete routine inspection tasks and companies can potentially use them to do initial surveying following a disaster to inform which areas require immediate assistance.
Logistics drones are last-mile delivery platforms for lightweight packages – typically under 5 lbs. – over short distances. They receive the greatest criticism from a regulatory and safety standpoint.
4Front Robotics
Aeryon Labs
AgEagle
Agribotix
Airphrame
Archon Dronistics
AutoCopter
CyPhy WorksFlirtey
Flyability SA
Flyver
FuVeX
Identified Technologies
ING Robotic Aviation
Matternet
Meteomatics
PrecisionHawk
Quadplane
SkySpecs
3D RoboticsDJI
Parrot
AeroVironment
Propeller
DroneDeploy
Skycatch
Volt Aerial Robotics
Airware
1
3
5
1 3 5
Tec
hn
ical
Val
ue
Business Execution
Dominant
Undistinguished
High-potential
Long Shot
Top players today
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4Front RoboticsAeryon Labs
AgEagle
Agribotix
Airphrame
Archon Dronistics
AutoCopter
CyPhy Works
Flirtey
Flyability SA
Flyver
FuVeX
Identified Technologies
ING Robotic Aviation
Matternet
Meteomatics
PrecisionHawk
Quadplane
SkySpecs
3D RoboticsDJI
Parrot
AeroVironment
Propeller
DroneDeploy
Skycatch
Volt Aerial Robotics
Airware
1
3
5
1 3 5
Tec
hn
ical
Val
ue
Business Execution
Dominant
Undistinguished
High-potential
Long ShotStrong Positive 1.0 - 1.9
Lux Take Maturity
Caution 4.0 - 4.9
2.0 - 2.9Positive
Strong Caution 5.0
3.0 - 3.9Wait-and-See
4Front Robotics
Aeryon Labs
AgEagle
Agribotix
Airphrame
Archon Dronistics
AutoCopter
CyPhy WorksFlirtey
Flyability SA
Flyver
FuVeX
Identified Technologies
ING Robotic Aviation
Matternet
Meteomatics
PrecisionHawk
Quadplane
SkySpecs
3D RoboticsDJI
Parrot
AeroVironment
Propeller
DroneDeploy
Skycatch
Volt Aerial Robotics
Airware
1
3
5
1 3 5
Tec
hn
ical
Val
ue
Business Execution
Dominant
Undistinguished
High-potential
Long Shot
It’s OK to take risksCase Study: Matternet
Technology
Network of (UAVs) to transport goods; initially targeting places with non-existent road infrastructure
Initial focus on developing nations with completed field trials in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Bhutan
Recently received approval to begin testing in Switzerland
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Location: Mountain View, CA,USA
Founded: 2011
Stage: Development
Employees: 12
Partnerships:• Partnered with the World
Health Organization, as well as the governments of Bhutan, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Switzerland
• Revenue: $0 (estimate)• Cash: $1 million (estimate)
Lux Take: Wait and See
System capabilities and concerns with business plan and deployment strategy were major red flags
Field trials in countries with few regulations served as a huge boon for the company and allowed it to enter the European market
Finding the opportunity
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Industrial robotics sales are on the rise
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Source: MIT Technology Review
There is room for innovation in industrial roboticsCase Study: Universal Robots
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Technology
Designs and manufactures small robot arms, the UR5 and UR10, which can lift 5 kg and 10 kg respectively.
Systems are designed to work seamlessly with humans, enabling operation in a cage-free workspace.
Cost is $34,000/device
Location: Denmark
Founded: 2005
Stage: Scale
Employees: 110
Partnerships:• Johnson and Johnson, BMW,
Volkswagen, Bosch and Siemens
• Revenue: $38 million (estimate)
Lux Take: Positive
Focus on GUI and ease-of-programming caused the company to gain early uptake
Product is not perfect, but was sufficiently suited to basic tasks and came at an attractive price point
A clear acquisition target as the company was taking on more orders than it could fill with its small size
Teradyne acquires Universal for $350 million
UR shipped 1,623 robots in 2014
2014 sales of $38M were 70% greater than in 2013
$285 million in cash, another $65 if expectations are met by 2018
Acquisition was 7 x UR’s 2014 revenue
Sold a total of 4,000 robots to date17
Source: Teradyne *Danish GAAP translated at period exchange rate
Universal is just the latest acquisition in a growing trend
Acquisition for undisclosed amount
GomTec is a 25 person company
Six-axis modular collaborative robots with base pricing between €27,900 and €32,700
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$357 million acquisition
Swisslog acquisition adds a mobility arm to KUKA’s arsenal
Second major acquisition by KUKA in 2014 - also acquired systems integrator Reis Robotics
Rulebook for robotics companies
There is opportunity in every sector of robotics
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Capitalizing on it will involve finding the gaps –don’t reinvent the wheel!
Start with the minimum viable product
$102 Billion
$5 Billion
$40 Billion
Navya’s shuttle is one of the UK’s driverless car projects
500,000 sold$15.5 million in funding
Lux Research Inc. 100 Franklin Street, 8th Floor Boston, MA 02110 USA Phone: +1 617 502 5300 www.luxresearchinc.com
Thank you
Maryanna Saenko [email protected]+1 (617) 502-5336