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SMART REGULATION IN THE AGEOF DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES
Andrea RendaCEPS, Duke, College of Europe
13 March 2018
A New Wave of Regulatory Governance?
• First wave: structural reforms (1970s-1980s)• Privatizations, liberalizations
• Second wave: regulatory reform (1980s-1990s)• Ex ante filters + “Less is more”
• Third wave: regulatory governance/management (2000s)• Policy cycle concept + importance of oversight• Better is more? Alternatives to regulation, nudges, etc.
• Fourth wave: coping with disruptive technologies? (2010s)
Digital Technology as “enabler”
Competition Collusion Access Discrimination
Jobs Unemployment Enforcement Infringement
Key emerging challenges
• From national/EU to global governance• From ex post to ex ante/continuous market monitoring (a new approach to the
regulatory governance cycle)• Need for new forms of structured scientific input (a new approach to the innovation
principle, and to innovation deals)• From regulation “of” technology to regulation “by” technology• A whole new set of alternative policy options• Away from neoclassical economic analysis, towards multi-criteria analysis and
enhance risk assessment/management/evaluation
Riskassessment,dose-response
Problemdefinition Alternativeoptions&ImpactAnalysis Regulatorycycle
Riskmanagement Evaluation
Emerging,disruptivetechnology
Policystrategyandexperimentation Learning
• Scientificinputandforecast• Mission-ledassessment• Long-termpathways
• Ongoingevaluation• Pathwayupdates
• Mission-orientedoptions• Pilots,sprints,sandboxes,tech-
enabledregulation
ALTERNATIVE POLICY OPTIONS• Regulatingbehaviour
– Needtofullyaccountforbehaviouralbiasesinindividuals– Stopprotectingconsumers,startempoweringusers– “Nudge”mostcontroversialwhenitcomestoemergingtechnologies?(Yeung2017)
• Regulatingtechnology– Code,notlaw,defineswhat’spossible(Lessig 1996;1999)– Design-basedrules:embeddingethicalprinciples/normativegoalsincode?
• Regulating“with”technology– Constantsurveillance– Distributedledgers– “GuardianAI”:algorithmsthatmonitoralgorithms
“Regulatoryengineering”• Newscreens
– Openness/neutrality
– Interoperability
– Scalability
– Contestability
– Resilience
– Enforceability
• Newexperiments– RCTs
– (Virtual)sandboxes
– IdeationSprints
– Rapidprototyping
– Regulationvia“extensions”
– Co-regulatoryschemes
Source:Mittelstadt etal(2016)
Actionableinsights?
Transparency
Garbagein,garbageout
Discriminatoryactions
Profilingandreorganising reality
Responsibility
EUSDGIndicatorSet
Frontier2030(Europe)
EU
MS
Spending(MFF)
Sectoralpolicies
Horizontalpolicy
Semester/Cohesionfunds
NationalSDpathways
Missioninnovation
Mission1 Mission2 MissionX
Governance
Tools
Progress/evaluation
OverallEUSDGgoals Mission-orientedpolicy Mission-orientedinnovationpolicy
Regulation&MOIP:keychallenges• Embeddinginnovationincoherentbaselinescenarios
• Embeddingdifferenttechnologymixesandbusinessmodelsinthechoiceofpolicyalternatives
• Linkingtheevaluationcyclewithupdatesinthetechnologyroadmaps
• Experimentation,datamanagementandcollectioninbothMOIPandpolicy
Mobility
Shelter
Jobs
Energy
Health
Security
Climate
Mission-ledplatforms
RTD RSB
PoliticalvalidationFirstVP
LeadDG
ExanteIA
NewIAguidelines
EPRS
Coherencecheck+Motivationofamendments
STOAUnit
Council
Coherencecheck+Motivationofamendments
1
3
BaselineOptions
2 4 5 6
Adoption
Monitoringandexpostevaluation
Regulation&MOIP:keychallenges
SMART REGULATION IN THE AGEOF DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES
Andrea RendaCEPS, Duke, College of Europe
13 March 2018
Example1:Whydidwewantnetneutrality?
• Anonymity
• Competitionandfairbusinesspractices
• Innovation
• Userchoice
• Openness
• Freedomofexpression/Pluralism
Example2:Gridneutrality?• “Theelectricgriddoesnotcareifyoupluginatoaster,aniron,oracomputer…[It’s]amodelofaneutral,innovation-drivingnetwork”(TimWu,2002)• Stilltrue?• Gridneutralitywouldhaveeffectsoncompetition,investment,distributional,andindustrialpolicy• Gridneutralitywouldnotmakethegridneutral• Itwouldclashwiththetrendtowardsresponsiblecooperationwithplatforms• Anyalternativeisproblematicintermsofenforcement:butthisisadebatethatisnowhereonthemap,inallICT-permeatedsectors
EXAMPLE 3:COPYRIGHT ENFORCEMENT
• Earlyyears(1996-2001):beliefthatISPsshouldnotinspectcontent
• 2001-2010:beliefthatDRMswoulddominatethemarket,allowingfor“easy”enforcement(notwithoutshortcomings)
• 2010onwards:theageofinspectionandintermediaryliability• Needtoreviewtheproblemdefinition
• Policylearning:needtomonitoremergingtechnologiesandverifypossibleavoidancestrategies(e.g.TOR,OnionRouting,etc.)
Achillesandtheturtle
n Mp3.com (2000)¨ One-way downloads¨ No sharing¨ Space-shifting¨ Not fault-tolerant¨ Not extensible¨ Not lawsuit-proof
n Napster (2000)¨ Centralized¨ Static¨ Manageable¨ Not extensible¨ Not fault-tolerant¨ Not lawsuit-proof
Achillesandtheturtle
n Morpheus (2003)¨ Decentralized¨ Dynamic¨ Difficult to manage¨ Extensible¨ Fault-tolerant¨ Lawsuit-proof
n Grokster (2003)¨ Decentralized¨ Dynamic¨ Manageable¨ Extensible¨ Fault-tolerant¨ Lawsuit-proof
p2pboom!
SearchiusSendLinkShareaza
ShareDirectShareGear
ShareItSoulseek
Streamjack MusicThe Circle
Torrent SearcherTorrentopiaTribalWebTrustyFiles
Web file manager HTTP Commander
WinMP3LocatorWWW File Share Pro
XBTXoloxYaCy
ZipTorrentZultrax
2 Find MP3ABC
AcquisitionAdagio
Amini p2p SoftwareaMule Project
ANts p2pAnywhere Explorer
ApollonApplejuice
AresAres p2p
Arliweb FoldersAudioGalaxy Rhapsody
AudioGnomeAxbar
AzureusBadBlueBCDC++
BearShare
BitCometBitComet Accelerator
BitLordBitSpirit
BitTorrentBitTorrent Absolute Downloader
BitTorrent LiteBlack Pirate FS
BlubsterBT2Net
Bt2Net Jet-speed DownloaderBTGetit
CarrachoConnect Storm
CrazaaDC++
Deepnet ExplorerDiet K
Digital Media ServerDIYP2P / Paranoia
DriveHQ
Easy File Sharing Web ServereDonkey 2000
eDonkey AcceleratoreFileGoEinsteinEmule
eMule PluseXeem
FilePipeFiletopiaFreenet
GnucleusGroksterGrouper
Haxial KDXiMesh
iMesh LightiMesh Revolution
InfocuSoft Photo ShareK-LiteGold
KastKaZaa
Kazaa All-in-OneKazaa Lite Resurrection
KazaaHttpKnutell
LimeWireLphant peer to peer
MagicVortexMediaGrab!
Mercora IMRadioMextractorMLdonkeyMorpheusMP3-Wolf
MysterNetwork Sunshine
NodescanNoxx
P2P ShareSpyPeer2Mail
PeerFoldersPeerFTP
Personal File ServerPiolet
PixVillagePruneBaby!PySoulSeek
Qnext
EXAMPLE 5:FILTER BUBBLES
• The“Dailyme”:ongoingpolarizationofpoliticalopinions
• Alternativepolicyoptions?• Self-regulation(corporatecodesofconducts,industry-wideagreements)• Co-regulation(e.g.extensionssuchasBalancer,PolitEcho,Bobble,ThisisFake,Considerit,FlipFeed,EscapeYourBubble)• Generalprinciplesofaccountabilityforpluralismandpoliticalbalancetomajorplatformsandsocialmedia• Developmentofpubliclyfundedthird-party,interoperableextensionsonmajorplatforms(e.g.useofinnovationprizes?)• Outcome-basedpolicyintheformofKPIsthatmeasurethepoliticalbalanceintheflowofinformationexchangedbyindividualendusers.