SMR - Nuclear Inst

© 2016 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development © 2015 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

SMR: Opportunities and Challenges

SMR 2016, London, 8-9 June 2016

Dr. Jaejoo HA

Head, Division of Nuclear Development, OECD/NEA

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]


(1991) Small and Medium Reactors http://www.oecd-nea.org/brief/brief-07.html

o Volume I. Status and Prospects

o Volume II. Technical Supplement

(2011) Current Status, Technical Feasibility

and Economics Of Small Nuclear Reactors http://www.oecd-nea.org/ndd/reports/2011/current-status-small-reactors.pdf

o Brief characterization of SMR available for commercial deployment

o Characterization of advanced SMR designs

o Small and modular reactors and their attributes

o Factors affecting the competitiveness of the SMR

o Assessment of the deployment potential of the various proposed SMR designs

o Safety designs of advanced SMR

o Licensing issues

(2016) SMRs: Market potential for near-term Deployment

Previous OECD/NEA work on SMRs

http://www.oecd-nea.org/brief/brief-07.html





http://www.oecd-nea.org/ndd/reports/2011/current-status-small-reactors.pdf











Opportunities and Challenges of SMR

• Combating climate change

• Safety and Flexible Site Selection

• Less Financial and Project Risk than LWR

• Economics still in Question

• New and Competing Markets

• Flexible Non Electricity Applications

• Need New dimension in Licensing

• Other opportunities and challenged – Suitable to Small Industry and Infrastructure

– Challenges to build Effective Infrastructure in Newcomer or Small

– Utilizing Existing Transmission System

– Sustainability of Business

– Harmonizing with Renewables


Combating climate change

(17%, 930GW, LWR, SMR, Gen IV) (12%, 380GW, LWR)

• IEA 2 Degrees C Scenario: Nuclear is Required to Provide the

Largest Contribution to Global Electricity in 2050

• SMR contribution to Electricity as well as Heat


Safety and Flexible Site Selection

• Small Core, New Technologies Inherently Safer

• Easy Use of Seismic Isolator, Lower Cooling Water Usage

• Small Footprint Public Acceptance, Licensing ?

Pressurizer

Helical Steam Generator

X X X X X X

Loop Type

PWR

Core

Canned Motor Pump

mP

ower

http

://w

ww

.gen

erat

ionm

pow

er.c

om

Smaller and Safer

http://www.generationmpower.com/




Less Financial and Project Risk than LWR

• Short Construction Time and Faster Return

– SMR: <3 yrs, Large NPP: >5yrs, Fossil: < 2 years

– Add (and pay for) Capacity as Demand dictates

• Low Initial Investment Still need Billions, and Still have

issues in Liberalized market CfD…

• Who to demonstrate this?

– Visible Near Term

• SMART in Saudi Arabia: 3yrs for Pre-Project Eng by 2018 Construction

• NuScale in INL: Licensing till 2020 Construction

– Others

• W, mPower, KLT, Carems… and Gen IV types


Economics still in Question

• No real data yet, but only estimation

• What to compare? LWR? Fossil?

– Compete Non-nuclear in Small Grid

– Compete LWR in Large Grid: 10x100 vs 1x1000 ?

• Necessary for better Economics

– Series construction or Large order

– Factory Tested, Licensing…


SMR economics: LCOE estimates for PWR SMR

LCOE estimates for PWR SMRs using the top-down scaling-law methodology and

numerical estimates of various factors affecting the competitiveness of the SMR:

Capital costs for relevant NPP with large reactor (USD per kWe)

Economy of Scale (scaling law): Cost(P1)=Cost(P0)(P1/P0)n

P0,P1 - power, n - scaling law parameter This study: n=0.45-0.6

Other factors affecting the competitiveness of SMR:

Design simplification This study: 15% reduction

Shorter construction period Up to 20% reduction (depends on the interest rate) FOAK effect and multiple units: This study: FOAK +15%, Serial: 10-25% reduction Factory fabrication, learning: Up to 30-40% reduction Output of the calculation: Capital costs for SMR (USD/kWe)

Assumptions on the costs of O&M, fuel, and decommissioning

O&M +Fuel costs (per MWh) are assumed to be the same for SMRs than for large reactors:

O&M costs are expected to be smaller for SMRs (due to design simplification & passive systems)

Fuel costs are expected to be larger for SMRs (because of poor fuel utilization)

Estimates of LCOE for SMR (USD/MWh)


LCOE estimates for PWR SMR 2010 data, at 5% discount rate

3000-4500 USD/kWe

2-7 USD/MBtu

3600-5900 USD/kWe

7-11 USD/MBtu

1500-3000 USD/kWe

~5000 USD/kWe

5-12 USD/MBtu

~10000 USD/kWe

0 50 100 150

Large Nuclear 5×125 MW SMR 4×335 MW SMR

Coal Gas

Wind

Large Nuclear 2×300 MW SMR (Russia)

Coal Gas

Wind

Large Nuclear 90 MW SMR (Korea)

Coal Gas

Wind

2×35 MW barge SMR (Russia)

N. A

mer

ica

Eur

ope

Asi

a P

acifi

c

USD/MWh


SMR O&M and fuel costs For a 150-200 MWe SMR, the fuel costs are projected to be ~50% higher than for

large reactors because of smaller burnup of the fuel (because the core is small) and

all-in/all-out core management strategy

See Resource Requirements and Proliferation Risks Associated with Small Modular Reactors, A. Glaser et al. Nuclear Technology Vol. 184 Num 1 pp. 121-129, October 2013

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

US

D /

MW

h

Power, MWe

O&M and Fuel costs of PWR SMRs vs. large

reactors

Data received by the NEA to date

Public declarations of some SMR

vendors

http://www.ans.org/store/j_19873


New and Competing Markets

• Targetting Two Markets

– Niche applications in remote or isolated areas (New Market to

Nuclear energy) Challenges in infrastructure development

– Direct competition for electricity production with large NPP and

other sources of power (Traditional Market) Challenges in

competing Economics

• Total Operating Power Plant Worldwide : 127,000 Units – Large(700MW) : 0.5 %, Medium : 3%, Small(<300MW) : 96.5%

– Fossil Plants : 58.1% (25% are older than 30 years) Ambitious SMR

Market?


Replacement of retiring coal power plants of 50-300 MWe capacity

Source: US Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860 Annual Electric Generator Report

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

Ca

pcity, M

We

US coal plants: Capacity vs commissioning date

Plants between 50 and 300 MWe in capacity and constructed before 1975:

Total capacity about 60 GWe


Flexible Non Electricity Applications

• Nuclear Co-generation

– Desalination, District Heating, Process Heat,…

– SMRs are better in issues with flexible mode of operation regarding

safety, operational, licensing

– But, selling commercially both electricity and non-electric products

remains a challenge if/where fossil-based alternatives (gas) remain

cheap.


Application Level of maturity Possible new projects &

recent activity

Challenges

District

Heating

Demonstrated at industrial

scale & currently operating

(Russia, Switzerland, …)

Option for new build in Finland

or Poland, feasibility studies in

France for coupling existing

NPPs to DH systems

Differences between

electricity & heat markets.

Economic assessment.

Desalination Tested at industrial scale in

the past (BN-350)

Small small scale

applications in NPPs to

supply fresh water to plant

Huge needs in the future but no

project in sight

Complexity and scale of

investments in water

infrastructures.

Public acceptance?

Long term?

High

temperature

process heat

Demonstrated at industrial

scale for low temp. steam

applications.

R&D HTR and cogeneration

NHDD project in Korea “clean

steel”

NGNP Alliance & EU’s NC2I

collaboration

Synthetic fuel production

Business model (nuclear

operator industrial

application operator)

Licensing, safety, public

acceptance, Long term

Hydrogen

production

Demonstrated at lab scale for

thermochemical cycles

(HTTR) and HTE

NHDD in Korea, on-going R&D

(Gen IV)

Hydrogen economy?

Competition with electric

mobility?

Nuclear hybrid

energy system

R&D on low carbon energy

systems involving nuclear &

variable renewables

Assessment of services

provided by nuclear (electricity,

storage, heat)

Economic assessment

Long term prospects


Need New dimension in Licensing

• New challenge to specific SMR

– Multimodule, EPZ, Control Staffing, Security, Licensing fee,

Factory inspection,…

• Need more efficient licensing approach in addition to

technical matters International collaborative effort ?

– Technology neutral International safety certification

– Design specific International topical report : MDEP

– Issues still remain regarding Legal responsibility,

Intellectual proprietary, Site-specific requirement,

Ownership of decision,…..


Other Opportunities and Challenges

• Suitable to Small Industry and Infrastructure

– May not need big heavy industries, Attractive Easier Localization

• Challenges to build Effective Infrastructure in Newcomer or Small

Market: Regulation, O&M, International Regime,…

• Utilizing Existing Transmission System

– 154kV Construction Cost: 1M$/km, Transmission Lost: 4.5%/100miles

• Sustainability of Business

– Need series of projects all the time to keep supply chain and economics

(see NNB, Projected cost by NEA)

– Market Competition by many SMR designs Some will fade out

• Harmonizing with Renewables

– Small power plant is more flexible to grid with large share of renewables

– Need further study on System Cost


Conclusions

• Is market ready? No. Subject to what we do

• Do we have preferred licensing scheme? No. Need Improvement

• Can compete in traditional market? Still question in economics

• Is electricity market stable and favorable? Still need to assure long

term arrangement

• Is financing issue resolved No, but Easier than before

• Is there enough supply chain? I think so. If not, can be created

• Is there player to take the risk of FOAK? Maybe

• What about site availability and public acceptance? Easier than LWR

• In conclusion, Economics will be the most important issue. Licensing,

Market size, Economics, Demonstrating successful FOAK deployment,

Industry involvement,… are all interrelated, and chicken and egg talk.

Someone have to play leading role.

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SMR - Nuclear Inst