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© Copyright Ovum. All rights reserved. Ovum is part of the Datamonitor Group. 1
SNS Forecast and Trends
Neha Dharia, Analyst, Consumer Practice
October 2013
© Copyright Ovum. All rights reserved. Ovum is part of the Datamonitor Group. 2
Summary
Social Networking Services (SNS) has made not only
made a profound impact on how consumers communicate
but it has greatly impacted how consumers share
information, conduct commerce, indulge in entertainment
and even search. This presentation will map the growth
trajectory of the communication based SNS to its current
form as a utility and entertainment based mobile platform
on a global scale. It will look at the fundamental shift in
social and the role of mobile media platforms in defining
the future of SNS. Along with this, the presentation will
also highlight the way forward and South Korea’s role and
relative position in leading the SNS revolution.
© Copyright Ovum. All rights reserved. Ovum is part of the Datamonitor Group. 3
Agenda
The fundamental shift in SNS
Reaching the point of no return
Answering the two big questions
Rise of mobile media platforms
Consumer speak
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Stats at a glance
2 billion monthly active users on SNS sites
1 billion monthly active mobile SNS users
Over 20 billion messages transacted daily on WhatsApp
Line gathers over 45 million users in a year
5% penetration of WhatsApp in a market makes it go viral
Kakao Talk has more than 400 million game downloads in one
year
Line gathers $4.3million in sales of emoticons in 2 months
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Social was the foundation
And is now the glue that holds everything together
TV
Search
Career
Consumption of media
payments
games
music
Utilities
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What caused this fundamental shift?
The very nature of social
A smartphone in every hand
Growth in funding for social
Free! Free! Free!
External events creating pockets of opportunity
© Copyright Ovum. All rights reserved. Ovum is part of the Datamonitor Group. 7
SNS Growth Trends:
Watershed years - 2008 and 2010
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Su
bscri
bers
(m
illio
ns)
Source: Company data, Ovum
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We have arrived at another inflection point
All of this had led us to a point of no return
Mobile media platforms acceleration in 2013
Viral growth spurs on user engagement
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Apps without borders
.
© Copyright Ovum. All rights reserved. Ovum is part of the Datamonitor Group. 10
Apps without limitations
.
© Copyright Ovum. All rights reserved. Ovum is part of the Datamonitor Group. 11
Can local apps go global?
The 2 big questions
How will social messaging re-define social?
© Copyright Ovum. All rights reserved. Ovum is part of the Datamonitor Group. 12
SNS Growth Trends:
2013 – 2015 battle for social messaging
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Su
bscri
bers
(m
illio
ns)
Source: Company data, Ovum
© Copyright Ovum. All rights reserved. Ovum is part of the Datamonitor Group. 13
SNS traffic, APAC will continue to rule
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
APAC
MEA
SCA
Source: Company data, Ovum
EUR
N.AM
27 trillion 257 trillion
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Growth of mobile media platforms
Made for mobile
Evolution will be organic
Revolutionize how social and mobile interact
Determine the shape of SNS in the future
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Impact on telco revenues
Vendors launch social messaging solutions
Device vendors re-think their strategy
Developers focus more on social aspects of
gaming, payments
OTT players face more competition,
partnerships have been triggered
The consumer benefits
Game. Set. Match.
$10 billion
mobile voice
revenue
lost $54 billion
SMS revenue
lost
BBM goes cross
platform
Fb partners
with 18 telcos
globally
Nokia adds
button
RCS launched
S.Korea &Spain
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Impact on communications
Source: Ovum
13%
4% 4% 4% 3%
4%
16%
10% 11%
8% 7%
7%
6%
19% 20%
13%
21%
15%
2%
7% 8%
4%
11% 11%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Voice calls via a fixedtelephone
Voice calls via a mobilephone
Mobile text (SMS) viathe texting service
provided by your mobileoperator
Voice over IP call (suchas Skype calls)
Social networks (e.g.Facebook)
A mobile messagingservice (such as
Whatsapp or Viber)
Significantly decreased Decreased Increased Significantly increased
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Consumer Speak: Social Messaging Usage
Source: Ovum
39%
22%
48%
58%
28% 28% 30%
40%
28%
31%
43%
48%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Games Mobile commerce(buying items online)
Emoticons (smileys) Voice calls Group calls Video calls
Use now Would use if available
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Its all about the money
Source: Ovum
30%
23%
20%
40%
30%
33%
13% 12%
6%
16%
13%
15%
6% 6%
3%
10%
6%
9%
4%
9%
2%
10%
4%
7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Games Mobile commerce(buying items online)
Emoticons (smileys) Voice calls Group calls Video calls
£0-£1 £1-£2 £2-£5 More than £5
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Welcome to the new era
Source: Ovum
Mobile platforms changing status quo of Social
Social will soon be synonymous to mobile
Social is about global meeting local
Social will make money on mobile
Mobile media platforms are the present and future of
social
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Q & A