Social and economic aspects of ICZM; functionality and valuation

Annemie Volckaert

First BeNCoRe Conference 26/04/2007

Outline presentation

Socio economic impact of major activities Overview recent studies Gaps

Socio economic impact: challenges

Comment Green Paper topic “how can quality of life be maintained in coastal regions”

Users of the Belgian part of the North Sea Belgian part of the North Sea

(BPNS): Part of southern North Sea 3600 km²

Different users Shipping & anchorage Fishery/ mariculture Aggregate extraction Dredging Dumping Military exercises Off-shore constructions Wrecks, buoys, masts Cables & pipelines Tourism/ recreation Nature areas

Sustainable management of North Sea

Socio-economic Impact on the Environment Identification

Valuation

I. Maritime transport

Shipping: Commercial (incl. ferries) Fisheries Offshore industries: wind energy, aggregate

extraction, dredging & dumping, etc. Recreational

Risk analysis of Marine Activities in the Belgian Part of the North Sea (RAMA) – SPSD II (2006)

Evaluation of marine degradation in the North Sea (MARE-DASM) – OSTC (2002)

Risk analysis of Marine Activities in the Belgian Part of

the North Sea (RAMA)

Supported by the Federal Science Policy

Goals

Risk-analysis of shipping incidents with environmental damage on the Belgian part of the North Sea

Study area: BPNS Excl. Scheldt traffic Excl. Noordhinder TSS

Data: Database IVS-SRK Data period 01/04/2003 –

31/03/2004 Data on ferries from

Ostend

Impact valuation

Historical dataModellingGIS based

analysisQualitative impact table

Release assessment: Cargo spill risk Tonnes/yr spilled

Highest risk class 8 (dangerous, no info) Total: 539 t/yr Containers: 390 t/yr

Class 1 (MP, cat A) Total: 12.3 t/yr Containers: 9.9 t/yr

Class 2 (crudes) Total: 101 t/yr Oil tankers: 101 t/yr

1.0 E-08 - 1.0 E-06

1.0 E-06 - 1.0 E-05

1.0 E-05 - 1.0 E-04

1.0 E-04 - 1.0 E-03

1.0 E-03 - 1.0 E-02

> 1.0 E-02

Exposure and effect assessment Selection of two scenarios

Worst case oil: 17.000 ton/accident; crudes Worst case HNS: 8.000 ton/accident (1.000

ton/accident); acetone cyanohydrine Sensitivity analysis (GIS-based)

Ecological parameters (e.g. Ramsar, MPA, beach reserve)

Socio-economic parameters (e.g. ports, spawning site, extraction zone, wind farm)

3 Scenarios (general, winter, summer ~ interests) Effect analysis

Exposure assessment (PEC) Consequence assessment (PNEC) Risk characterisation (PEC/PNEC)

Summer scenario

Effect analysis : worst case

Exposure assessment: MU slicklets model (BMM) 12,6 km² oil spill In 13 hours Zwin

Consequence assessment: LC50 aromatic comp. Direct loss biota: 12% - 68% Bird loss open sea: 471 Bird loss Zwin: 741 Seabirds;

2595 Water birds

Exposure assessment: No model available HNS

(sedimentation) 0,01 mg/l (critical effect

concentration = 1% loss biota) 75 simulation days

Consequence assessment: Ecological impact area 8.000 ton: 70% BPNS 1.000 ton: 40% BPNS

Evaluation of marine degradation in the North Sea (MARE-DASM)

Goal

Development of mathematical models assessing the risk and damage Identification & quantification of the

different contaminants in the marine environment

Socio-economic assessment criteria to determine the cost of degradation

Development & evaluation of technical and legal procedures

Socio-economic assessment

Valuation of the non-use value of BPNS in case of an accidental oil spill Contingent Valuation method

(questionnaire) Scenario: 10.000 m³ spill Scenario: 5.000 m³ spill Scenario: 200 m³ spill

Willingness to pay: between 375 and 606 million €

II. Industries Offshore:

Wind energy Aggregate extraction LNG transport

Environmental impact assessment MAREBASSE: Management, Research and

Budgeting of Aggregates in Shelf Seas Related to End-users - SPSDII

Balancing the Impacts of Human activities on the Belgian Part of the North Sea (BALANS) – SPSDII Aggregate extraction

EIA as a legal instrument to evaluate impacts Legal basis:

International: EIA directive (85/337/EC) National:

Marine Law (20/01/1999) (art.28 §1) RD 09/09/2003: rules & procedures EIA

Master Plan North Sea Political priorities Delimitation of zones

RD 17/05/04 RD 01/09/04

EIA as a legal instrument to evaluate impacts Offshore windfarms

C-Power: 60 turbines (5-7 MW), 30 km offshore

Eldepasco: 36 turbines (5-7 MW), 38 km offshore

Bligh Bank: 69 turbines (5 MW), 45 km offshore

Sand- and gravel extraction Zeegra AWZ-Coast

EIA as a legal instrument to evaluate impacts Impact valuation of the activity on different

disciplines: Soil Water Atmosphere & Climate Noise & Vibrations/ Electromagnetic fields Fauna & flora & biodiversity Seasight Users Safety (shipping, radar, oil)

Major challenges: cumulative effects

III. Fisheries

Commercial fisheries Small fleet Big fleet Shrimps

Anglers (recreational)

Balancing the Impacts of Human activities on the Belgian Part of the North Sea (BALANS) –SPSD II

Balancing the Impacts of Human activities on the Belgian Part of the North Sea (BALANS)

Goals & methodology

Focus on: shrimp fisheries Aggregate extraction

Procedure Conceptual model development Translation into a system-thinking

environment Data entry Integrated conceptual policy & interface

development (STELLA model) Scenario development

Conceptual model (sand & gravel)

Outcome Improve understanding of the activity Manage the effects of policy choices on

sustainable management

IV. Human induced impacts

Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation responses for marine activities (CLIMAR) Coastal flooding Fisheries

Ballast water & invasive species

Socio-economic activities

Effect on abiotic

Effects on ecosystem

Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation

responses for marine activities (CLIMAR)

MethodologyWP1Definition and modelling of climate change induced primary impacts at North Sea scale

Climate change induced primary impacts: sea level rise, increased storminess, possible increased rainfall, salinity, temperature, etc.. Definition and modelling

WP2Deduction of climate change induced secondary impacts

Secondary impacts on the marine ecosystem in general and related socio-economic activities Identification and

classifications

Case study – Fisheries sector Impact assessment

Case study - Coastal flooding Modelling

WP3Identification of adaptation scenario’s/measures

Case study – Coastal flooding Identification/modelling of

adaptation scenario’s/measures

Case study – Fisheries sector Identification/modelling of

adaptation scenario’s/measures

Marine ecosystem in general and related socio-economic activities. extrapolation of adaptation

scenario’s/measures

WP4Evaluation of adaptation scenario’s/measures

Case study – Coastal flooding Evaluation adaptation

scenario/measures

Case study – Fisheries sector Evaluation adaptation

scenario/measures

Integrated sustainability assessment

of adaptation scenario's/measures

Elaboration of an evaluation framework for adaptation scenario’s/measures as a response to climate induced impacts (North Sea)

Evaluation of the effects of the proposed adaptive strategies (embedding in policy, practical integration, implementation )

Marine ecosystem in general and related socio-economic activities. Evaluation adaptation

scenario/measures

Formulation of recommendations towards North Sea future policy and its different socio-economical activities.

WP1Definition and modelling of climate change induced primary impacts at North Sea scale

Climate change induced primary impacts: sea level rise, increased storminess, possible increased rainfall, salinity, temperature, etc.. Definition and modelling

WP2Deduction of climate change induced secondary impacts

Secondary impacts on the marine ecosystem in general and related socio-economic activities Identification and

classifications

Case study – Fisheries sector Impact assessment

Case study - Coastal flooding Modelling

WP3Identification of adaptation scenario’s/measures

Case study – Coastal flooding Identification/modelling of

adaptation scenario’s/measures

Case study – Fisheries sector Identification/modelling of

adaptation scenario’s/measures

Marine ecosystem in general and related socio-economic activities. extrapolation of adaptation

scenario’s/measures

WP4Evaluation of adaptation scenario’s/measures

Case study – Coastal flooding Evaluation adaptation

scenario/measures

Case study – Fisheries sector Evaluation adaptation

scenario/measures

Integrated sustainability assessment

of adaptation scenario's/measures

Elaboration of an evaluation framework for adaptation scenario’s/measures as a response to climate induced impacts (North Sea)

Evaluation of the effects of the proposed adaptive strategies (embedding in policy, practical integration, implementation )

Marine ecosystem in general and related socio-economic activities. Evaluation adaptation

scenario/measures

Formulation of recommendations towards North Sea future policy and its different socio-economical activities.

CESSE-ULB & VITOCESSE-ULB & VITOContribution to Contribution to

SPICOSASPICOSA

BY BY

Dr. WALTER HECQDr. WALTER HECQ Ir. MATEO CORDIER Ir. MATEO CORDIER

GUY ENGELENGUY ENGELENJOACHIM MAESJOACHIM MAESLEO DeNOCKERLEO DeNOCKER

SPICOSA SPICOSA Fact sheet

Science and Policy Integration for Coastal Systems Assessment (http://www.eucc.net/spicosa/)

54 Partner institutes, 22 countries, 18 study sites 6th FP 1 Feb 2007 – 1 Feb 2011

Objective: Develop a system dynamics modelling approach to support decision-making processes enabling integrated assessment of coastal systems in Europe

Fully interlinked processes:physical & ecological;

economic, demographic & societal;environmental & land use.

at appropriate abstraction levels

Carrying out of economic Carrying out of economic assessment :assessment :

a)a) reviewing success of application reviewing success of application in other projects having carried out in other projects having carried out economic assessments (with economic assessments (with spatial dimensions)spatial dimensions)

Carrying out of economic assessment :Carrying out of economic assessment :

c) Assistance toc) Assistance to Study Site Applications Study Site Applications in :in :

- Selecting a methodology for economic Selecting a methodology for economic evaluationevaluation

- Adapting it to the SSA specificities Adapting it to the SSA specificities

- Carrying out the methodology on field (and Carrying out the methodology on field (and real presence real presence on field for few selected SSA) for few selected SSA)

CESSE – ULB contribution to SPICOSACarrying out of economic assessment :Carrying out of economic assessment :

b) Assistance to b) Assistance to SAF modelling SAF modelling in : in :

Integrating economic assessment methodology Integrating economic assessment methodology ((Input - Output tables…Input - Output tables…) in the systemic model ) in the systemic model EXTENDEXTEND) )

Conclusions

Interdisciplinary approach is a must! Same language/Terminology:

Between different partners Scientific team & stakeholders

Good data base is fundamental Importance of stakeholders (private, institutes,

etc.) Concrete problem formulation Data delivery Expertise Valuation

Visualisation of results (GIS maps, models) Dissemination to public (awareness; language)

Socio-economic impact: challenges Other important players:

Commercial fisheries and recreational anglers Tourism New developments: LNG tankers, offshore

energy, mariculture, harbour expansion Demography (older population)

Other important impacts of users: Mobility Ballast water Invasive species Climate change Cumulative impacts

Socio-economic impact: challenges (2) Problem formulation: Tackling problems of public

concern Improving communication with private sector Improving communication with policy

Methodological: Good data base with relevant parameters Accessible quality data Quantification of impacts (modelling)

Valuation of non-use values of the BPNS: Contingent Valuation method (Willingness to pay) Other methodologies?

Socio-economic impact: challenges (3) Broader scale:

Sea/coastal/hinterland interface Border-crossing problems: climate change,

cumulative effects, etc. Cooperation with neighbouring countries (Nl,

En, Fr) Data input Methodology Integrated results

European level (e.g. Spicosa)

Socio-economic impact: challenges (4) Policy instruments

Spatial planning (European scale) Integrated decision models (Balans, Climar,

…) Coordinating institutes

Need for innovative and flexible research

Green paper

The issue on how quality of life in coastal regions of Europe can be maintained, while continuing to develop sustainable income and jobs? Development inevitably brings with it pressures on space and the environment. It requires improvements in accessibility to, and internal mobility within, coastal zones, in particular small islands, through transport infrastructure improvements. It also calls for the supply of general interest services (health, education, water and energy supply, telecommunications, postal services, waste water and waste treatment) in order to improve the quality of life in coastal zones, in particular during peak tourist seasons

Green paper (2)

Quality of life

Seasonal variation: tourist peak Positive: jobs but temporarily Negative: conflicts, facilities (WTP, water), …

Valuation Parameters

Place to live & work Market value EconomicalSocial

Leisure & tourism Market and non-market value

Econ. / soc.Other

Intrinsic value coast & sea

Non-market value CVMWillingness to pay

Good indicator Database:Coastal zone

(kustbarometer)Marine zone

Integration between zones

Green paper (3)

Possible solutions to improve quality of life Spatial planning larger scale Diversification of tourism

Connection sea/coast/hinterland Needs: families, older people, etc.

Sustainable fisheries New techniques Alternatives Conflict with anglers at sea

Legal & policy instruments Control (safety, pollution) Integration WFD, Maritime strategy, etc. Coordinating institute to manage integration

Sustainable income and jobs

Decrease pressure on environment

Improve quality of life