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Projecting ImmigrationI ssues and Perspect i ves  

Richard Jackson

Center for Strategic and International Studies

Social Security Advisory Board

September 7, 2005

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Immigration now plays a decisive role in

determining the long-term demographic

trajectory of the developed countries.

Issue 1

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Immigration rates have risen steadily inEurope and the United States.

Immigration rates have risen steadily inEurope and the United States.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2002

   N

  e   t   I  m  m   i  g  r  a   t   i  o  n   P  e  r   1 ,   0   0   0   P  o  p  u   l  a   t   i  o  n

US

EU15

Net Immigration Rate in the United States and EU15,

Decade Averages, 1951-2002

Source: Eurostat (2005), Wilmoth (2003), and author's calculations

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In Europe, immigration w ill soon be theonly source of population growth.

In Europe, immigration w ill soon be theonly source of population growth.

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-2000 2001-10 2011-20 2021-30

   M   i   l   l   i  o  n  s  o

   f   P  e  o  p   l  e

Natural Increase Net Immigration

Natural Increase versus Net Immigration in the EU15, in Millions,

Decade Averages, History and Eurostat Baseline Projection, 1961-2030

Source: Eurostat (2005) and author's calculations

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Immigration now plays a decisive role in

determining the long-term demographic

trajectory of the developed countries.

Most projections continue to rely on ad

hoc assumptions based on little theory

and virtually no definable methodology.

Issue 2

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The rise of illegal immigration makespolicy a less reliable projection guide.

The rise of illegal immigration makespolicy a less reliable projection guide.

650 670 660

610

140

450

750700

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1980s 1990-94 1995-99 2000-March 2004

   T   h  o  u  s  a  n   d  s  o

   f   P  e  o  p   l

Legal Immigration Illegal Immigration

Source: Passel (2005)

Legal versus Illegal Immigration in Thousands, Period Averages, 1980-2004

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Current projections encompass a hugerange of possible outcomes.

Current projections encompass a hugerange of possible outcomes.

150

250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

1998 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

   T   h  o  u  s  a  n   d  s  o   f   P  e  o  p   l

High MigrationSeries

Middle Series

Low MigrationSeries

Zero MigrationSeries

High Series:

Middle Series:

Low Series:

Zero Series:

854.3

571.0

437.5377.4

US Population in 2100 under

Alternative Migration

Assumptions, in Thousands

Census Bureau Projections of the US Population under Alternative Migration

Assumptions, in Thousands, 1998-2100

Source: US Census Bureau (2000)

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Immigration now plays a decisive role in

determining the long-term demographic

trajectory of the developed countries.

Most projections continue to rely on ad hoc

assumptions based on little theory and

virtually no definable methodology.

Projection practice could be improved by

harnessing the insights of immigration

theory.

Issue 3

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Immigration now plays a decisive role indetermining the long-term demographictrajectory of the developed countries.

Most projections continue to rely on ad hocassumptions based on little theory andvirtually no definable methodology.

Projection practice could be improved byharnessing the insights of immigrationtheory.

Any effort to improve projection practicemust confront a number of key choices.

Issue 4

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Key Projection Choices.Key Projection Choices.

Should projections be constrained by current

policy?

Should projections be “trend based” or

“driver based”?

Should projections use a “variant” or“probabalistic” approach to measuring

uncertainty?