Socioeconomic Benefits from Applications of Earth Satellite Observations:

How to Quantify Benefits?

Environmental Evaluators Network2011 Forum

Lawrence FriedlApplied Sciences Program

NASA Earth Science Division

23-June-2011

Discovering and Demonstrating Innovative and Practical Applications of Earth Science

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NASA and Earth ScienceEarth Science Division

NASA‌is‌primarily‌focused‌on‌‌research‌and‌development.

The‌NASA‌Earth‌Science‌Division‌supports‌research‌on‌the‌Earth‌system‌and‌its‌processes.‌‌Primary‌efforts‌are‌to‌characterize,‌understand,‌and‌improve‌predictions‌of‌the‌Earth‌system.

In‌the‌course‌of‌performing‌its‌research,‌NASA‌collects‌observations‌and‌generates‌new‌scientific‌knowledge‌that‌can‌be‌applied‌to‌meet‌organizations’‌decision-making‌activities.‌‌

Technology

Missions

Research

Data Systems

Applications

The Applied Sciences Program funds projects that

enable practical and innovative uses of Earth

science data by public and private

organizations.

Goal 1: Enhance Applications Research

Advance‌the‌use‌of‌NASA‌Earth‌science‌in‌policy‌making,‌resource‌management‌and‌planning,‌and‌disaster‌response.‌Conduct‌applied‌research‌to‌generate‌innovative‌applications.

Goal 2: Increase Collaboration

Pursue‌partnerships‌to‌leverage‌resources‌and‌risks‌and‌extend‌the‌program’s‌reach‌and‌impact.

Goal 3: Accelerate Applications

Enable‌identification‌of‌applications‌early‌in‌satellite‌mission‌lifecycle‌and‌facilitate‌effective‌ways‌to‌integrate‌end-user‌needs‌into‌satellite‌mission‌planning.

Applied Sciences ProgramProgram Strategy & Goals

http://AppliedSciences.NASA.gov

Outcomes are manifest in

organizations’ enhanced policy and management

decisions.

Impacts are the resulting

socioeconomic benefits from the

improved decisions.

Applied Sciences ProgramApplications Areas (USGEO 9 SBAs)

Energy

ClimateAgriculture Weather

OceansDisasters Ecosystems

Water Resources

Healthand Air Quality

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Emphasis in

4 Applications AreasSeek opportunities to expand to

5 additional areas

Applied Sciences ProgramProject Examples

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Global‌active‌fire‌locations‌from‌MODIS‌Fire/Thermal‌Anomalies‌product‌are‌process‌in‌rapid‌response.‌SMS/text‌messages‌sent‌out‌to‌emails‌&‌cell‌phones‌with‌key‌info‌(fire‌coordinates,‌time,‌distance‌to‌reference‌point).‌For‌example,‌park‌managers‌use‌alerts‌to‌reduce‌illegal‌clearing‌and‌respond‌to‌wildfires.‌‌

August‌2010:‌Transitioned‌to‌UN‌FAO‌for‌on-going‌operational‌support.‌‌

OMI SO2 – Iceland Volcano

15-apr-2010

Projects‌developed‌and‌demonstrated‌reliable‌detection‌of‌volcanic‌ash‌clouds‌using‌Aura/OMI‌SO2‌data‌and‌other‌NASA‌Earth‌science‌satellite‌sensors.‌Proven‌utility‌led‌to‌its‌operational‌use‌by‌NOAA‌‌to‌formulate‌Volcanic‌Ash‌Advisories.‌Products‌used‌extensively‌in‌Iceland‌volcano‌eruption‌in‌April‌2010.‌

February‌2011:‌The‌NASA‌satellite‌data‌were‌used‌to‌produce‌volcanic‌ash‌advisories‌for‌aviators‌across‌the‌Gulf‌of‌Mexico‌due‌to‌the‌Feb.1‌eruption‌of‌the‌Popocatepetl‌volcano‌in‌Mexico.

System Configuration

Applied Sciences Program

Performance, Evaluation, and Impacts● Substantive‌projects‌and‌successes‌in‌applications;‌yet‌inability‌to‌

substantiate‌the‌socioeconomic‌benefits‌&‌impacts

● Strategically‌important‌for‌Earth‌science‌community‌to‌have‌skills‌&‌abilities‌(or‌know‌how‌to‌access‌them)‌to‌document‌impacts

-‌Need‌across‌regions,‌sectors,‌topics,‌data‌types,‌etc.

● Part‌of‌effort‌is‌bridging‌the‌social‌sciences‌&‌economic‌fields‌with‌the‌Earth‌science‌and‌physical‌science‌fields.‌‌

In 2010, the Program began an initiative to conduct impact analyses and substantiate the socioeconomic benefits of selected

projects applying Earth observations in decision-making activities.

-‌‌Impact‌analyses‌of‌projects-‌‌Creation‌of‌case‌studies‌across‌application‌topics-‌‌Workshops‌to‌connect‌Earth‌scientists‌with‌social‌scientists‌&‌economists.‌

Applied Sciences Program Impact Analyses

Characterize project and decision making. Design analysis and assess information and available data.

Identify impact metrics (e.g., number of malaria cases per

thousand)

Collect data on impact metrics

prior to inclusion of Earth obs. info

Collect data on impact metrics after inclusion of Earth observations info

After

Before

General Approach The‌analysis‌used‌an‌adapted‌expected‌value‌of‌information‌(VI)‌methodology‌to‌assess‌the‌benefits.‌‌The‌value‌of‌information‌is‌a‌function‌of‌the‌benefits‌that‌result‌from‌a‌decision‌with‌information‌compared‌to‌the‌decision‌that‌would‌have‌been‌made‌without‌the‌information.‌

Compare “before” & “after”, control for

random variation, and identify impacts

Using‌this‌approach,‌the‌value‌of‌information‌provided‌by‌a‌‌project‌would‌be:

Value of Earth obs. info = (Outcome with information – Outcome without information)|‌‌7

Malaria Early Warning Project: The‌Malaria‌Early‌Warning‌System‌(MEWS)‌amalgamates‌information‌from‌a‌wide‌variety‌of‌sources‌to‌support‌malaria‌prevention.

The project integrated NASA TRMM, Aqua, Landsat, and other satellite observations of precipitation, temperature, and other environmental variables into MEWS for Africa to improve malaria prevention and reduce morbidity and mortality.

Malaria Early Warning Project: The‌Malaria‌Early‌Warning‌System‌(MEWS)‌amalgamates‌information‌from‌a‌wide‌variety‌of‌sources‌to‌support‌malaria‌prevention.

The project integrated NASA TRMM, Aqua, Landsat, and other satellite observations of precipitation, temperature, and other environmental variables into MEWS for Africa to improve malaria prevention and reduce morbidity and mortality.

BlueSky Project: BlueSky‌is‌a‌model‌framework‌developed‌by‌the‌U.S.‌Forest‌Service‌to‌predict‌the‌smoke‌effects‌from‌wildfires,‌prescribed‌burns,‌and‌agricultural‌burns.

The project integrated NASA MODIS and other remote sensing data into program to improve the timeliness and accuracy of BlueSky to support decisions on allowances of prescribed burns, analyze smoke emissions transport, and minimize smoke impacts on local communities.

BlueSky Project: BlueSky‌is‌a‌model‌framework‌developed‌by‌the‌U.S.‌Forest‌Service‌to‌predict‌the‌smoke‌effects‌from‌wildfires,‌prescribed‌burns,‌and‌agricultural‌burns.

The project integrated NASA MODIS and other remote sensing data into program to improve the timeliness and accuracy of BlueSky to support decisions on allowances of prescribed burns, analyze smoke emissions transport, and minimize smoke impacts on local communities.

Applied Sciences ProgramImpact Analyses

Program initiated an effort to calculate the societal benefit of the use of NASA Earth science products for decision support.

Initial analysis focused on two projects:

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Value of Information and

Socioeconomic Benefits Workshop (2010)

Summary

Workshop‌to‌Examine‌Analytic‌Methods‌for‌Determining‌the‌Value‌of‌Information

-‌Supports‌efforts‌in‌Earth‌observations‌community‌to‌quantify‌societal‌benefits‌from‌use‌and‌application‌of‌Earth‌obs.‌data‌in‌decision‌making

Commissioned‌by‌ESD‌Applied‌SciencesOrganized‌and‌Hosted‌by:

Dr.‌Molly‌MacauleyResources‌for‌the‌Future‌(RFF)

10‌invited‌papers‌and‌discussants

Publication‌planned‌for‌single‌volume‌on‌developments‌in‌value‌of‌information‌research‌and‌applications‌

June‌28-29,‌2010‌at‌RFF‌in‌Washington,‌DC

Topics & Organizations

-‌Earth‌Obs‌in‌Environmental‌Regulation:‌The‌Case‌of‌Land‌Use‌and‌Pollution‌‌(USGS)

-‌Malaria‌Diagnostics‌(Harvard)

-‌Land‌Cover‌&‌Climate‌Change‌Mitigation‌(International‌Institute‌of‌Applied‌Systems‌Analysis)

-‌Earth‌Obs.‌and‌Rift‌Valley‌Fever‌Vectors‌(Georgetown‌Univ.)

-‌Information‌and‌Catastrophe‌(RFF)

-‌Public‌Health‌Information‌(Wharton/U.Penn)

-‌Consumer‌Choice‌and‌Advertising‌(UMd)

-‌Earth‌Observations‌and‌Weather‌Index‌Insurance‌(Columbia)

Applied Sciences ProgramPerformance, Evaluation, and Impacts

Familiarity with Terms

Economics & Policy Analysts-‌ Shadow‌Price

-‌ Discount‌Rate

-‌ Marginal‌Utility

-‌ Cobb‌Douglas‌Function

-‌ Revealed‌Preference

-‌ Bayesian‌Inference

-Price‌Elasticity

-Pre-Post‌Analysis

Remote Sensing & Earth Science- Orthorectification

- Synthetic‌Aperture

-‌ Nearest‌Neighbor‌

-‌ Kriging

-‌ Supervised‌Classification

-‌ Passive‌Microwave

-OPeNDAP

-Spectroradiometer

Terms shared by both (though meanings may differ)

- ‌Lagrangian‌function -‌Sensitivity‌Analysis- ‌Probability‌density‌functions -‌Monte‌Carlo- ‌Markov‌Processes -‌Regression‌and‌R-squared

Applied Sciences ProgramPerformance, Evaluation, and Impacts

Familiarity with Terms

Economics & Policy Analysts-‌ Shadow‌Price

-‌ Discount‌Rate

-‌ Marginal‌Utility

-‌ Cobb‌Douglas‌Function

-‌ Revealed‌Preference

-‌ Bayesian‌Inference

-Price‌Elasticity

-Pre-Post‌Analysis

Remote Sensing & Earth Science- Orthorectification

- Synthetic‌Aperture

-‌ Nearest‌Neighbor‌

-‌ Kriging

-‌ Supervised‌Classification

-‌ Passive‌Microwave

-OPeNDAP

-Spectroradiometer

We‌shouldn’t‌expect‌either‌field‌to‌become‌expert‌in‌the‌other.‌‌We‌do‌need‌to‌find‌ways‌to‌make‌connections.‌‌Desire‌is‌that‌Earth‌science‌people‌will‌know‌people‌to‌contact‌in‌other‌fields‌to‌do‌an‌evaluation‌and‌an‌analysis‌of‌socioeconomic‌benefits.

Earth Science & Evaluation

Assessment of Need & Opportunity

● Need‌in‌Earth‌science‌community‌for‌guidance‌and‌examples‌on‌use‌of‌analytic‌techniques‌and‌methodologies

● Need‌for‌development‌of‌case‌studies‌and‌body‌of‌literature‌across‌different‌sectors,‌types‌of‌decision‌making,‌and‌applications‌topics

For‌example,‌techniques‌to‌articulate‌benefits‌of‌Earth‌science‌for‌improved‌volcanic‌ash‌advisories‌is‌likely‌different‌than‌for‌reservoir‌management‌or‌fisheries.

-‌‌Depending‌on‌the‌decision‌making,‌the‌technique‌and‌measure‌may‌need‌to‌address‌efficiency,‌productivity,‌cost,‌effectiveness,‌or‌other‌metric.‌‌

● Also‌need‌for‌good‌‘stories’‌and‌human‌interest‌anecdotes

-‌Relate‌the‌data‌products‌to‌individuals‌(direct‌or‌indirect)

Next Steps

• NASA‌and‌ESIP‌would‌like‌to‌continue‌to‌work‌with‌EEN

• Possible‌evaluation‌workshop‌in‌the‌context‌of‌the‌environmental‌application‌of‌Earth‌science‌data

for‌ESIP‌community‌

for‌NASA-funded‌Earth‌science‌project‌teams

• Training‌opportunities‌on‌analytic‌techniques‌for‌evaluation,‌impact‌analyses,‌

• EEN‌participation‌in‌ESIP‌Winter‌meeting‌in‌Washington‌DC,‌January‌2012‌

NASA Earth Science Applied Sciences Program

Lawrence‌Friedl,‌Program‌Director202.358.1599

LFriedl@nasa.gov