Upload
clark-hamblett
View
221
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Solar and Interplanetary Sources of Geomagnetic disturbances
Yu.I. Yermolaev, N. S. Nikolaeva, I. G. Lodkina, and M. Yu. Yermolaev
Space Research Institute (IKI - ), RAS, Moscow, Russia
Several results have been published and may be found in http://www.iki.rssi.ru/people/yyermol_inf.html
Space Weather Effects on Humans:in Space and on EarthInternational Conference
IKI, Moscow, June 4-8, 2012
History
• After Richard Carrington’s observation of strong solar flare on 1 September 1859 and strong magnetic storm in 18 hours after flare there was point of view that solar flares are sources of magnetic storms.
• Modern observations showed that after most part of flares there is no magnetic storms and
• many storms are observed without any solar activity.
Solar flares and magnetic storms during 1976-2000
Main reason of magnetospheric disturbances is negative (southward) component of Interplanetary Magnetic
Field (IMF Bz < 0)
• Non-disturbed solar wind contains IMF which lies in ecliptic plane => Bz =0 !
• Only disturbed types of solar wind may be geoeffective.
Large-scale types of solar wind
(From Yermolaev, Cos.Res.,1990; Planet. Space Sci., 1991)
General concept of storm effectiveness
of solar and interplanetary events
Fast stream
Slow stream
Aims of research
• Occurrence rate of different types of solar wind
• Geoeffectiveness (number of selected type of solar wind resulted in magnetic storm with Dst < - 50 nT divided by total number of this type)
• Efficiency (with `output/input` criteria) in generation of magnetic storms by different types of solar wind
Example of OMNI data and calculated
parameters in our database ftp://ftp.iki.rssi.ru/pub/omni
(left)and identification of solar wind
typesftp://ftp.iki.rssi.ru/pub/omni/catalog/
( bottom)
Yearly number of different types of large-scale solar wind phenomena
• Heliospheric current sheet HCS
~ 124±81per year (maximum near solar minimum)
• Corotating interaction region CIR
~ 63±15 (at decrease of cycle)
• Interplanetary СМЕ or Ejecta ~ 99±38 (at increase and decrease of cycle)
• Magnetic cloud МС ~ 8±7 (at decrease of cycle)
• Sheath before Ejecta and МС are observed at half of Ejecta и МС (near maximum of cycle)
7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1
02 04 06 08 0
1 0 01 2 0
CIR
7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1
01 0 02 0 03 0 0
HC
S
7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1
04 08 0
1 2 01 6 0
RS
un
nu
mb
er
7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1
01 02 03 0
SH
MC
7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1
05 0
1 0 01 5 02 0 02 5 0
EJE
CT
A7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1
01 02 03 0
MC
7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1
0
1 0
2 0
RA
RE
7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1
01 0 02 0 03 0 04 0 0
FA
ST
7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1ðèñ2. í î ð ì èðî âàí í û å çí à÷åí èÿ ñ î ø èáêàì è
0100200300400
SL
OW
7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1
04 08 0
1 2 0
SH
Ej
ñð-124,36î ò-81,16
ñð-63,23î ò-15,03
ñð-6,28î ò-5,57
ñð-48,30î ò-20,71
ñð-99,3î ò-38,37
ñð-8,09î ò-6,73
ñð-1,47î ò-4,42
ñð-150,87î ò-65,5
ñð-174,8î ò-74,8
à)
á )
â)
ã)
ä )
å)
æ)
ç)
è)
ê)
Durations of different types of large-scale solar wind phenomena
• ~ 29±5 h for IСМЕ (Ejecta),
• ~ 24±11 for magnetic cloud МС,
• ~ 20±4 for CIR,
• ~16±3 for Sheath before ICME (Ejecta),
• ~ 9±5 for Sheath before MC,
• ~5±2 for HCS.
7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1
51 52 53 54 5
dT
CIR
7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1
01 02 03 0
dTH
CS
7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1
04 08 0
1 2 01 6 0
R×
èñë
î ïÿ
òåí
7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1
01 02 03 04 0
dT
Sh M
C
7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1
02 04 06 0
dT
Eje
cta
7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1
02 04 06 0
dT
MC
7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1
02 04 06 0
dT
Rar
e
7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1
1 02 03 04 0
dT
Sh
E
<dT H C S>
4.982.29
<dT C IR>
20.174.05
<dT S hE>
16.103.71
<dT S hM C>
9.485.69
<dT E jecta>
29.125.2
<dT M C>
24.611.67
<dT R are>
4.4911.48
à)
á )
â)
ã)
ä )
å)
æ)
ç)
Distribution of different types of solar wind during 1976-2000
7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1
0
5 0
1 0 0
1 5 0
R(S
un
spo
t n
um
be
r)
7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1
0
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
1 0 0
H C SC IR
SH E ej
EJEC TA
M C
FAS T
SLO W
SH E M C
Distribution of interplanetary sources of magnetic storms
7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1
0
5 0
1 0 0
1 5 0R
(Su
nsp
ot
nu
mb
er)
7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1
0
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
1 0 0
C IR
SHE e j
EJEC TA
M C
IND
SHE M C
Distribution of interplanetary sources of magnetic storms
(taking data gaps into account)
7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1
0
5 0
1 0 0
1 5 0R
(Su
nsp
ot
nu
mb
er)
7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1
0
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
1 0 0
C IR
SH E ej
EJEC TA
M C
SH E M C
Distribution of interplanetary sources of magnetic storms
Geoeffectiveness of different types of large-scale solar wind phenomena
7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1
0
2 0
4 0
6 0
×è
ñëî
ìà
ãíè
òíû
õ á
óðü
ñ D
st<
-50
íÒ 7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1
02 55 07 5
1 0 01 2 51 5 01 7 5
R×
èñë
î ïÿ
òåí
7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1
0
0 . 1
0 . 2
0 . 3
0 . 4
Ãåî
ýôô
åêò
èâí
îñò
üC
IR
7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1
00 . 20 . 40 . 60 . 8
1
Ãåîý
ôô
åêòè
âíî
ñòü
Sh
ÌÑ
, S
hE
7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1
00 . 20 . 40 . 60 . 8
1
Ãåîý
ôô
åêòè
âíî
ñòü
MC
ñ S
H,
MC
áå
ç S
H
7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1
0
0 . 1
0 . 2
0 . 3
0 . 4
Ãåîý
ôô
åêòè
âíî
ñòü
Eje
cta
ñ S
hea
th,
Eje
cta
áå
ç S
hea
th
C IR =0,202
Ñ óì ì àðí àÿ ãåî ýô ô åêòèâí î ñòü:Sh Ì Ñ= 0,152Sh E= 0,155
MC(c Sh)=0,633M C (áåç Sh)=0,545
Ejecta(ñ Sh)=0,212E jecta(áåç Sh)=0,08
(à)
(á )
(â)
(ã)
(ä )
(å)
21 öèêë 22 öèêë 23 öèêë
Geoeffectiveness
sola
r w
ind
phen
omen
a
Duration of main phases of magnetic storms and
double superposed epoch method
-12 -6 0 6 12 18 24
-80
-40
0
40D
st, n
T
9 :00 15:00 21:00 3:00 9:00 15:00
-80
-40
0
40
Dst
, nT
E poch tim e, hours____
20:00 2:00 8:00 14:00 20:00 2:00
-80
-40
0
40
Dst
, nT
1 :00 7:00 13:00 19:00 1:00 7:00 13:00
-80
-40
0
40
Dst
, nT
26 .04.1984
30.06.1982
26.11.1977
Behavior of parameters obtained by double superposed epoch method
Variations of parameters obtained by double superposed epoch method
Behavior of solar wind parameters in various types of streams during
magnetic storms with Dst ≤ –50 nT
Connection of magnetospheric indexes with Bz component of IMF
Connection of magnetospheric indexes with Ey component of electric field
Efficiency of various types of solar wind streams
Number of events N, geoeffectiveness (probability) P and efficiency Ef=Dst/Ey
Conclusions On the basis of our «Catalog of large-scale solar wind phenomena during 1976-2000» (see data on site ftp://ftp.iki.rssi.ru/omni/ and paper by Yermolaev et al., Cosmic Research, 2009, №2) we obtained:
1. Occurrence rate of different types of solar wind:
average number: 124±81 events per year for HCS, 8±6 for МС, 99±38 for Ejecta, 46±19 for Sheath before Ejecta, 6±5 for Sheath before МС, и 63±15 for CIR;
duration of events: ~ 29±5h for Ejecta, ~ 24±11 for МС, ~ 20±4 for CIR, ~16±3 for Sheath before Ejecta, ~ 9±5 for Sheath before MC, ~5±2 for HCS;
Time distribution: steadt types of solar wind (FAST+ SLOW + HCS) 60%, CIR 10%, MC 2%, EJECTA 20%, Sheath 9%.
2. Geoeffectiveness of events: 0.613 for MC, 0.142 for Ejecta, 0.202 for CIR, 0.633 for MC with Sheath, 0.545 for MC without Sheath, 0.212 for Ejecta with Sheath, 0.08 for Ejecta without Sheath.
These results are published in Cosmic Research. 2009, № 5 and 2010, № 1http://www.iki.rssi.ru/people/yyermol_inf.html [email protected]
Conclusions(2) 3. Efficiency• Dependencies of Dst (or Dst*) on the integral of Bz (or Ey) over time are almost
linear and parallel for different types of drivers (time evolution of main phase of storms depends not only on current values of Bz and Ey but also on their prehistory).
• We estimated efficiency of storm generation as “output/input”= Dst/integated Ey(Bz) ratio.
• Efficiency of storm generation by MC is the lowest one (i.e. at equal values of integrated Bz or Ey the storm is smaller than for another drivers) and
• Efficiency for Sheath is the highest one.
Several results have been published in Ann.Geophys. 2010 and Journal Geophys. Res., 2012 may be found in http://www.iki.rssi.ru/people/yyermol_inf.html