Solar Deployment and PolicyJustin Baca Director of Research Solar Energy Industries Association . About SEIA • Founded in 1974 • U.S. National Trade Association for Solar Energy

Solar Deployment and Policy

Justin Baca Director of Research

Solar Energy Industries Association

About SEIA

• Founded in 1974

• U.S. National Trade Association for Solar Energy

• 1,000 member companies from around the world

• Members from across 50 states

• Largest companies in the world as well as small installers

• Our Mission: Build a strong solar industry to power America

• Our Goal: 10 gigawatts (GW) of annual installed solar capacity in the U.S. by

2015

July 18, 2014 © 2014 Solar Energy Industries Association® 2

Key Solar Policies

• Federal 30% Investment Tax Credit (ITC) through 2016

– Commercial credit drops to 10% on January 1, 2017

– Residential credit expires January 1, 2017

• Renewable Portfolio Standards

• Net Energy Metering for Customer-Sited PV

– Value dependent on rate structure, load profile and solar generation profile

• Interconnection Policy

• Improved Financing to Ease Tax Equity Crunch


Policy is Not Just About Incentives

• Net metering, interconnection and utility procurement policies define

market access for solar.

• Carbon policy will play a role. Watch how 111(d) develops.

• For customer-sited systems, the permitting process has the potential

to break a market through inefficiencies.

• The housing and financial markets impact financing options for solar.

• Trade policy matters


Solar Workforce

• 143,000 Solar Workers in 2013

July 18, 2014 5

0

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40,000

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So

lar

Wo

rke

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U.S. Solar Employment

SEIA Rough Estimate TSF National Solar Jobs Census

© 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association®

Solar Businesses

• 6,100 businesses engaged in the solar industry employing 143,000

people


Solar Installations

• PV installations up 79% in Q1 2014 vs Q1 2013


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

N/A Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

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Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Pre-2010Cumulative

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Me

ga

wa

tts

Solar Installations by Quarter

CSP

Utility

Non-Residential

Residential

SEIA/GTM Research U.S.

Solar Market Insight

Year to Date Solar Installations


0

1,000

2,000

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Me

ga

wa

tts

Annual Solar Installations

CSP

Utility

Non-Residential

Residential

SEIA/GTM Research U.S.

Solar Market Insight

Outcomes Driven by Different Policy and Market Structures


0

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8,000

Residential Non-Residential Utility CSP

Me

gaw

att

s

Cumulative Solar Capacity by State CaliforniaArizonaNew JerseyNorth CarolinaNevadaMassachusettsHawaiiColoradoNew YorkNew MexicoPennsylvaniaFloridaTexasOtherMarylandGeorgiaOhioConnecticutOregonTennesseeIndianaDelawareIllinoisMissouriVermontWashingtonWisconsin

SEIA/GTM Research U.S. Solar Market Insight

System PV Prices Continue to Decline

• Typical residential system now about $3.73/Wdc

• Typical commercial system now about $2.53/Wdc

• Utility system now $1.77/Wdc


$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

Residential Non-Residential Utility

$/W

dc

National Average Installed Price of PV

2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q22011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4


Non-Incentive Policies Impact PV System Costs

• Top two components largely driven by non-incentive policies.


$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

Residential Commercial Utility

$/W

dc

Typical PV System Pricing Breakdown Q1 2014

Supply Chain, Logistics, Customer Acquistion,Overhead and MarkupDesign, Engineering, Permitting, Interconnection

Direct Labor

Structural BOS

Electrical BOS

PV Inverter

PV Module

Base Total

Low Pricing


No Secret that Costs Matter

• Small changes can

have a large impact

• Incentives decreased

over the time shown

in the chart

• Most new deployment

in CA now done

without rebates or PBIs

i © 2014 Solar Energy Industries Association® 12

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

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$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

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1,200

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Insta

llati

on

s (

MW

dc)

California Historical Solar Installations and Prices

Sum of Installations (MW) - Residential Sum of Installations (MW) - Non-Residential

Sum of Installations (MW) - Utility Sum of Installations (MW) - CSP

Average of Price ($/Wdc) - Residential Average of Price ($/Wdc) - Non-Residential

Average of Price ($/Wdc) - Utility Average of Price ($/Wdc) - CSP

SEIA/GTM Research U.S. Solar Market Insight.(Utility pricing reflects national average, not state

specific value.)

Residential Retail Parity

• $2.00/Wdc with ITC at 30% • $2.00/Wdc with no incentives


Source: NREL “Residential PV Breakeven Scenario Viewer”

Solar Installation Forecast

• 38 GWdc of PV and 2.6 GWac of CSP expected to be online by the

end of 2016.


0

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Megaw

att

s

Solar Installation Forecast

CSP

Utility

Commercial

Residential


Solid, Timely Data is Critical to Policy and Markets

• The Energy Information Administration has a critical role to play

– Continue to improve solar coverage: more data, better data, faster access

• Policymakers/regulators depend on data and analysis to inform their

decisions

– Integrated Resource Plans (IRP) forecasting informs investments in assets

that will exist for decades

– Outdated or inaccurate data and can lead to sub-optimal decisions

• Markets thrive on accurate data

– Consumers develop confidence

– Financiers can lower costs when they have access to reliable data on asset

performance


Thank you

Justin Baca

[email protected]


mailto:[email protected]

Documents

Solar Deployment and PolicyJustin Baca Director of Research Solar Energy Industries Association . About SEIA • Founded in 1974 • U.S. National Trade Association for Solar Energy