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Steps of Site Identification & Project Pre-Feasibility

Solar Power Plant cash flow model

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Page 1: Solar Power Plant cash flow model

Steps of Site Identification &

Project Pre-Feasibility

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Identification of site Solar insolation and shadow

assessment Geological due diligence Social audit of the site Power Evacuation Feasibility and

accessibility Technology and supplier selection Financial Pre Feasibility

Page 6: Solar Power Plant cash flow model

Land shall be plain and Red soil with proper rain water drainage provision .

Near to 33KV SS Motor able road Following land is not suitable : Black Cotton Soil Site located near mountain ,Larger

Water Bodies & Shadow over land .

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• No of sunny days / sunny hours • No of Cloudy days & Rainy days • Relative Humidity & Temperature @

Site • Direction of Sun Rays falling on the

Panel • Following land is not suitable :• More dusty Area • Site located near mountain ,Larger

Water Bodies & Shadow over land .

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• As land orientation should preferably be flat, considerations while identifying site must include;

• Degree of levelization,• A drainage system,• Dust percentage in air• Land/soil capacity to hold structures.• Soil Testing Experts/ Geotechnical

Engineers having understanding of soil and land mechanics.

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Review issues related to:-

Security of the project and the systems, Possible threats in terms of security of

employees, Availability of labor & local support for the

project.

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Review issues related to:-

• Availability of substation for power evacuation (Nearest- 11/33 KV )

• Availability / provision for Additional Bay @ SS • Evacuation capacity of the sub-station- to be

checked with distribution  utility. • Feasibility study of Power Evacuation line of

33 KV from site to SS ( Pole compensation cost)

• Grid to be constructed as per IEGC .

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Selection of Solar PV Technology based on -

• Past performance record, Available global radiation(GHI), Climatic conditions- Specially temperature and Wind velocity, Cost of technology (capital and O&M), Projected conversion efficiency/’s and Consequent projected CUF’s, Risks associated with the technologies

• Solar Panels – Type • Mono crystalline , Poly crystalline or Thin film

technology .• Battery Banks , inverters , PV – DC Cable

connectors , etc .• Use of specific PV DC cables

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• Land & Development Cost• Construction Cost• Engineering Cost• Equipment Cost• Operational Cost• Revenue• Benefits/Incentives• Funds Availability• Cash Flow• Returns

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Radiation at Site Losses in PV System

(Invertors ,Cabling, Soiling (Dust), Module Mismatch , MPPT losses & Transformer)

Temperature and Climatic condition Design Parameters of the Solar Plant Inverter efficiency Module degradation due to ageing . Grid Availability

Page 14: Solar Power Plant cash flow model

Direct Method –

Pyrheliometer & Pyronometer instruments used @ site to estimate the Solar Radiation

InDirect method –Satelite data , NASA , Indian Metrological Department ,

World Radition Data Centre ( WRDC) & RET Screen Canadian software - Free of

cost

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Reflection losses due to Sun Path, - Solar rays should fall perpendicular to panel for higher efficiency – But actually it may have wider incidence angle due to sun path – 1 % loss expected .

Soiling losses due to dust , SNOW etc – 1 % loss Mis Match effect losses- due to interconnection of

Solar Panels in series & parallel – Good quality panel to be procured .

MPPT ( Max Power Point Tracking) Losses - due to Changes in direction of sun , changes in solar insolations level with varying Temp

Inverter Efficiency depends upon Conversion of DC to AC – 96 to 98.5% .

Cabling losses due to improper joints etc . Transformer losses.

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Proper selection of Modules Optimum angle of tilt Minimisation of Ohmic losess with proper

selection of conductors . Selection of Efficient Transformers & Inverters Energy output depends upon

- Temperature of the module decrease the output - Intensity of lights - Sun lights reflection on the surface but not on the modules - Defuse light - Changes in Sun spectrum in the day/ year , due to clouds, smoky, fogs etc - Materials used in Modules – Amorphous Silicon performance changes with aging

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Mounting position of modules & Air circluation Inclination Angle - Tilting position of modules –

Fixed type- Non Tracking system Performance changes with aging . Temp Co Efficient –Changes in power out put with

Different Temp Typical value of Temp co efficient

Y( P mpp) Crystaline Modules -0.4 to 0.45 % K Y( P mpp) Amorphous Modules -0.2 to 0.23 % K Y( P mpp) CdTe Modules -0.24 to 0.25 % K

Thin film modules can give higher performance @ Elevated Temp compare to Crystaline silicon.

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Module degradation occurs to Sun light - Slow Breakdown of Module encapsulant

( Ethelene Vinyl Acetate EVA & Back sheet Polyvinyl Flouride Films )

Moisture ingress leads to corrosion formation on Cable connectors and decreased voltage outputs

UV rays breaks down the EVA layer between Module Front Glass and silicon cells – Silicon cells outputs gets affected .

Discoloration of Panels . Degradation of silicon cells – Metastable

Dangling bonds – 15 to 20 % reduction in efficiency .

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Sl No Description Life in Years

Remarks

1 Module 30

2 Inverter 15 Small plant

30 10% Parts replacement 2 Every 10 years

3 Structure 30 Roof Top

30 to 60 Ground mounted fixed in metal

4 Cabling 30

After 10 years – 90 % & After 20 Years -80 % efficiency noticed in modules

First 03 years of Operations No reduction in designed power output and then Yearly reduction of power output is 0.5 %

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Software available – RETScreen (Free of cost), PVSyst23, Homer

Following analysis can be done :- -Energy Analysis-Emission Analysis-Cost Analysis-Financial Analysis-Sensitivity / risk Analysis

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Performance of CUF depends upon :- Solar Radiation Temperature Air velocity Module type and materials used Quality of Module & cable joints etc Efficiency of Inverter &Transformer Thin Film Modules most suitable higher

ambient temp area . ( CUF around 19 to 20%) To compensate degradation loss after 3 years

add 5 KW module / MW in every year.

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Sl No

Description Cost In Crore

% of Cost

1 Solar PV Modules 4.51 58.26873392 Solar Invertors 1.166 15.06459953 Transformers 0.294 3.798449614 Protective devices 0.12 1.55038765 Wire/cables 0.1 1.291989666 SCADA/RMS 0.1 1.291989667 Project Execution & Comm 0.2 2.583979338 Construction cost 0.4 5.16795866

9 Grid Evacuation @ 15 L /Km x 5 KM 0.75 9.68992248

10 Other official works 0.1 1.29198966 7.74 100

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Loan amount @ 70 % of project cost 5.418 crore

Annual EMI (Including Principle + Interest @12PA= Rs 8,76,105 Lakhs / Month)

1,05,13,320 Crore

Annual OMS Charge & Staff Pay + Admin cost 20,00,000 Lakhs

Total Expense / year 1,25,00,000 Crore Revenue Details

Net Energy Produced in MWH 1655 MWH

PLF ( 1x24x365= 8760 MWH) / Year 18.8926%

PPA @ 7.50 KWH Cost 1,24,12,500 crore

Revenune due to sale of REC @12000 /MWH 1,97,59,180 crore

Net Cash Flow ( NCF) = ( PPA + REC cost ) 3,22,72,500 Crore

Net Balance Amount = ( NCF- Net Expense / Year) 1,97,59,180 Crore

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Break even

7.74 / 1.97 crore( Total Project cost /Net Balance amount/ year)

3.92 years

Net Amount at the end of the 7 th year 13,83,14,260 crore

Net Amount at the end of the 10th year 19,75,91,800 Crore

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