Solar Thermal & Coal-Fired Power Plants:Consequences for the Western US and Colorado

River Basin

K. Averyt, B. Udall, D. KenneyCU-NOAA Western Water Assessment

325 Broadway Boulder, CO 80305Kristen.averyt@noaa.gov

Colorado River BasinColorado River Basin

GEOLOGY

WATER

SOLAR

USGS

Colorado River Basin: Demand ComplicationsColorado River Basin: Demand Complications

Regions in the West where water supply conflicts are likely to

occur by 2025

• Population growth• Endangered species

USP, 2009

Trout Unlimited

Colorado River Basin: Supply ComplicationsColorado River Basin: Supply ComplicationsWater will be the delivery mechanism for many of the

impacts of climate change...

USP, 2009

Colorado River Basin: Supply ComplicationsColorado River Basin: Supply ComplicationsNumber of Days Over 100Number of Days Over 100ºFºF

Recent Past, 1961-1979

Higher Emissions Scenario, 2080-2099

Projected Change in Spring Precipitation2080–2099

Declines in flow of 10% to 40% in

CRB by 2050

USP, 2009

Colorado River BasinColorado River BasinGOAL: Layout cross-sectoral

impacts of particular decision making pathways

Compare water consumption of current and proposed coal-fired and solar-thermal power plants

Water for EnergyWater for Energy

Identified coal-fired & solar-thermal power plants in operation or planned that would likely be drawing water from the CO River Basin

• Still reconciling water sources for these plants, but analysis still relevant

CRWCD

Coal-Fired Power PlantsCoal-Fired Power Plants

Navajo Generating Station 2250

Springerville Generating Station 1178

Cholla Power Plant 995

Coronado Generating Station 773

Apache 408

H Wilson Sundt Generating Station

425

Craig Station 1264

Hayden Generating Station 446

Nucla Station 100

Cameo Power Plant 66

Arapahoe 144

Cherokee 710

Comanche 700

Martin Drake 281

Rawhide 270

Ray D Nixon 225

Valmont 166

WN Clark 38

Springerville 4 400

Comanche 3 750

Desert Rock 1500

White Pine Power Plant 1590

Toquop 750

Newmont 210

Ely Energy Center 1500

Green River 500

Sigurd Power Plant 270

Bonanza 110

Hunter 400

Four Corners Power Plant 2269

San Juan Generating Station 1848

Escalante 257

Reid Gardner Power Plant

605

Hunter Power Plant 1472

Huntington Power Plant

944

Bonanza Plant 460

Carbon Power Plant 190

Intermountain Power Project 1640

Naughton 707

Jim Bridger 2312

CURRENT PROPOSED

23,000 MW

8,000 MW

Solar Thermal Power PlantsSolar Thermal Power Plants

CURRENT PROPOSEDNevada Solar 1 64

Solar Energy Generating Systems 354

Kimberlina Solar Thermal Energy Plant 5

Saguaro Solar Power Station 1

Hualapai Valley Solar Project 340

Starwood Solar I 280

Solana Generating Station (Abengoa Solar)

280

Unnamed Kingman solar project

200

Mojave Solar Park 553

SES Solar One 850

SES Solar Two 750

Fort Irwin 500

Genesis Solar Energy Project

250

(Solar Millenium) Ridgecrest Solar Power Project

250

Beacon Solar Energy Project 250

(Solar Millenium) Palen Solar Power Project

500

(Solar Millenium) Blythe Solar Power Project

1000

Mojave Solar Project (Abengoa)

250

Carizzo Energy Solar Farm 177

Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating System

440

San Joaquin Solar 1-2 107

Alpine SunTower 92

eSolar 1 84

eSolar 2 66

City of Palmdale Hybrid Power Project

62

Unnamed 59

Victorville Hybrid Power Project

50

SunTower 92

Amargosa Solar Power Project

250

400 MW

7,700 MW

Energy DevelopmentEnergy Development

Proposed

Current

Proposed projects have similar total capacity

0 5 10 15 20 25Capacity (GW)

Coal-FiredSolar Thermal

7700 MW7700 MW

8000 MW8000 MW

Water for EnergyWater for Energy

Water for EnergyWater for EnergySolar-Thermal Coal-Fired

wet-cooling (recirculating)

air-cooling

hybrid/ parallel

parabolic troughs 3.028 0.295 0.378 to

0.946

linear Fresnal 3.785 no data no data

power tower 1.893 to 2.839 0.341 0.341 to

2.839

Stirling Engine

na 0.076 na

Withdrawal (m3/MWh)

Withdrawal (m3/MWh)

Consumptive (m3/MWh)

Consumptive (m3/MWh)

Low High Low High

Conventional Pulverized Combustion - Once-Through Cooling

76.086 189.834 1.761 1.980

Conventional Pulverized Combustion - Direct Dry Cooling

0.481 0.811 0.716 1.052

Conventional Pulverized Combustion - Indirect Dry Cooling

0.481 0.811 0.719 1.053

Conventional Pulverized Combustion - Hybrid Wet-Dry Cooling

0.481 0.811 0.719 1.053

Conventional Pulverized Combustion - Pond Cooling

80.931 196.265 6.605 7.505

Conventional Pulverized Combustion - Wet Cooling 4.095 4.744 4.334 4.553Gasification - Once-Through Cooling

49.534 123.640 1.219 1.396

Gasification - Direct Dry Cooling 0.390 0.774 0.540 0.793

Gasification - Indirect Dry Cooling 0.390 0.774 0.542 0.793

Gasification - Hybrid Wet-Dry Cooling

0.575 2.989 0.717 2.823

Gasification - Cooling Pond 1.067 2.103 1.219 1.838

Gasification - Wet Cooling 2.625 3.419 2.777 3.450

Water withdrawals and consumption

depend on the technology &

particularly cooling method

Adapted from Wilkinson et al., pers com.

Water for EnergyWater for Energy

For each online and proposed project:

•Identify relevant technologies & nameplate capacity

•Assume 80% operation

•Identified process technology using suite of resources; where unavailable assumed evaporative cooling

Station Reported (thousand acre-ft)

Estimated(thousand acre-ft)

Navajo 28 23–25

Arapahoe 1.6 3.5–3.7

Cherokee 8 17–18

Water ConsumedCurrently Online Coal-Fired Power Plants

Self-reported data close to estimates; exceptions are plants where received

data from Excel

Water for EnergyWater for Energy

Station Current/Projected (thousand acre-ft)

Estimated(thousand acre-ft)

Genesis Project 1.6 1.8

Arapahoe 0.15 0.18

Nevada Solar One 0.40 0.47

Water ConsumedCurrent & Proposed Solar Power Plants

For each online and proposed project:

•Identify relevant technologies & nameplate capacity

•Assume 300 days, 10 hours per day (solar thermal)

•Identified process technology using suite of resources; where unavailable assume evaporative cooling Self-reported data and projections close

to estimates

Water for EnergyWater for Energy

Water Consumed (thousand acre-ft per year)

Coal-Fired Solar ThermalCurrently

Operational574 674 0 3

Proposed 196 206 30.3 31.1

TOTAL 770 880 30.3 34.3

Most proposed solar thermal plants indicate water will be withdrawn from groundwater.

Data compiled from DOE, EIA, power plant permitting applications

Water for EnergyWater for EnergyWater Consumed (thousand acre-ft) for coal

extraction in Colorado in 2006

Water use for coal extraction: 25 to over 100 thousand acre-ft each year

Annual GHG EmissionsAnnual GHG Emissions

1850: total emissions were 200 million tons per year

Data compiled using emissions from http://carma.org/

CO2 Emissions (millions tons) per year

Coal-Fired Solar ThermalCurrently

Operational181.5 0

Proposed 55.5 0

TOTAL 236.9 0

Further Work...LOTS!Further Work...LOTS!

• Reconcile estimates with reported data

• Groundwater and Surface Water Connections

• public lands and private lands