Some priorities for Water Management in Sub- Saharan Africa

View points from FARAAlain L. ANGE

Technical Adviser to FARA

What happened so far - what challenges

Food security is a burning issueFood production could not face demand for foodHuge expected population and food demand growthFarmers did better while farm size stagnatedVery low pace of intensificationPoor development of irrigated areasPoor water productivity in agricultureClimate change will exacerbate risks in farming

Food security risk index – 2011 (FAO)

Africa is the largest food insecure area and has the largest population of hungry people.

Food security = highest ranking component in development agenda

A sensitivity issue

Food production could not match demand for food

SSA Millions Mouths to feed Agricultural population Consumer/ agric people

1980 369 258 1.432010 820 382 2.15Growth 2.22 1.48 1.50

SSA – source FAO 1980 – M t 1980 – kg/cap. 2008 – M t 2008 – kg/cap.Cereal production 51 138.1 109 139.7Net Cereal imports 3.9 10.4 20.4 24.9Food imports 10 27.3 33 42.2Food exports 8.7 23.6 11.2 14.4Exports industrial crops 3.8 10.2 5.7 7.3

Huge changes happened in production to consumption systems in last 30 years.

The cropped area doubled, production per capita dropped, imports soared

The deficit of support to agriculture created a food deficit

Population and Food demand growth An Exposure For the next 30 years

SSA - millions Mouth to feed Agricultural population

Consumer/agric. people

2010 820 382 2.15

2040 1.467 527 2.78

Growth x 1.79 x 1.38 x 1.29

• Food availability per capita should increase by 30% while food import per capita should decrease;

• The average production by every agricultural people should increase by 90% for maintaining food imports at present level;

• Degraded land should be restored and land degradation controlled.

A potential adaptive capacity

Farmers did better while farm size stagnatedKg produced/Agricultural people

1985 2008 Change %

Cereals 210.9 256.7 + 22

Beans + Peas 15.6 23.9 + 53

Oil Seeds 14.3 24.7 + 73

Tubers + Bananas 355.9 540.6 + 52

Fruits + Vegetables 78.8 103.0 + 31

Perennial food crops 239.8 207.3 - 14

Non food crops 7.6 8.6 + 13

Total average mass 922.9 1.164.8 + 26

Ha cropped/ 10 agricultural people

3.490 3.806 + 9

Small size of farm holdings is a factor of sensitiveness

Very low pace for intensification in SSA

In spite of considerable development efforts, intensification of farming is coming at very low pace in SSA: Crop productivity increased by less than 15 % in last 20 years Livestock productivity did not changedOnly 15% of farmers are using improved crop varietiesFertilizer consumption increased less than the cropped area: 6kg nutrients/haAcreage of fully irrigated areas progressed less than total cropped areasMechanization/ motorization progressed less than number of rural people

Venues for supporting accelerated intensification of farmingo Improved natural resource management /access at community levelo Settling rural youth into enlarged / mechanized farming unitso Improving access to water for agricultureo Developing effective production chains well connected to marketso Develop affordable agricultural credit and insurance systemso Organize farmers for resource management, mechanization, marketing

Poor development of irrigated areas - FAO

Sub- region - ha Potential 1988-1992 1993-1997 1998-2002 2003-2007 2008-2012Western 7,451,000 663,850 779,460 1,061,190 1,202,820 1,399,670#Eastern 6,922,900 2,101,300 2,435,700 2,505,600 2,771,700 2,637,670#Central 10,006,000 59,300 68,610 82,590 106,790 130,000#Southern 11,538,500 2,625,400 2,760,520 3,120,700 3,330,400 3,570,000#SSA 35,918,400 5,449,850 6,044,290 6,770,080 7,411,710 7,677,340#

In 20 years fully irrigated areas + 41% - cropped area + 47% - Population + 67%

Cultivated humid lowlands +11% in 20 years but swallowed by irrigated schemes ►

# = estimated projection

Sub- region - ha 1988- 1992 1993-1997 1998-2002 2003-2007 2008-2012Western 4,888,000 4,921,000 5,088.700 5,286,100 5,360,800#

Eastern 222,400 180,400 183,600 190,400 200,000#

Central 78,000 97,500 125,000 162,500 200,000#

Southern 183,900 184,900 183,900 183,900 182,000#

SSA 5,372,300 5,538,800 5,581,200 5,822,900 5,942,800#

Poor Water Productivity in agriculture in SSA

Water productivity - m3 per tonne of cereal grains

STOCKHOLM Resource Institute (Data from FAOStat 2009,and personal communication Zwart, 2009)

Non Accounted

0 - 500

500 - 1000

1000 - 1500

1500 - 2000

2000 - 2500

2500 - 5000

5000 - 7500

7500 - 10000

10000 - 15000

NA

Climate Change will exacerbate risks in farming

Climate change in Sub Saharan Africa will affect water balances:- Substantially increase temperature and evaporation of water;- Generate heat waves that may wilt crops;- Increase rainfall variability - more showers and drought spells;- Destabilize run-off regimes – more floods and low waters;- Increase the energy of gales, hurricanes and typhoons;- Generate high tides in mangrove areas and related rice fields.Climate change will also generate: Geographical shifts of natural vegetation and animal species; Changes in distribution of pests and diseases in agriculture; Changes in distribution and intensity of human diseases; Increased risks for wild fires.

Sensitivity and potentials for solutions

• Poverty is the overwhelming constraint• Lack of institutional development is limiting response• Low public commitment for agriculture is hampering• Land development potentials are huge• Irrigation potentials are significant• Green and blue water available – blue water is short• Farming systems and livelihoods are diversified• Increasing energy and food prices, price volatility

generate potentials and new limiting conditions as well

World distribution of poor people - 2010

Source FAO

With 24% of poor people, Sub Saharan Africa is the most affected continent by poverty. In relation to population growth, poor people could be 350 millions by 2030 if MDG are only partially reached.

Poverty = The most important component of sensitivity

Poverty reduction is key to development and a product from development

Lack of institutional development and policy commitment

Deficit of institutional development• No significant development of farmers’ unions in most countries;• Collapse of most cooperative movements• Very limited development of out-growers schemes and agreements in

production chains supporting intensification

Deficit of policy commitment Dar Es Salaam Declaration in March 2003 = 10% of budget for agriculture In 2013, 7 countries out of 53 have increased agricultural budgets Within CAADP, in 7 years, 11 countries have developed Investment Plans No significant change in budget for irrigation in most Investment Plans Regulations on water access, water pricing and water quality not available

Very good progress on the joint management of shared water basins

Land development potentials

Latin America – Sub Saharan – East – South – Near East – Industrialized – Transition and Caribbean Africa Asia Asia North Africa Countries Economies

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

Million ha

Suitable for rain-fed crops Arable land use 1997-99

1066 1031 366 220 99 874 497 203 228 232 207 86 387 215

Sub – Saharan Africa has huge arable land available – 800 million ha

Extending cropped area for larger farms with adequate mechanization

ADAPTIVE

C APACITY

Irrigation PotentialsHuge expansion potential for irrigation

But potential is 1/3 of potential in South Asia for 3 fold more landmass.

ADAPTIVE

CAPACITY Plans for irrigation development at national and watershed level;

Budget for irrigation infrastructure agreed upon; Water-users associations promoted; Water pricing regulated.

Diversity of Green and Blue water availability in SSA

Green-blue water year 2000 - m3 /cap / y

STOKHOLM RESOURCE INSTITUTE – May 2009

1 - 500

500 - 1000

1000 - 2000

2000 - 5000

5000 - 10000

10000 - 50000

50000 - 100000

> 100000

Green-blue water year 2000 - m3 /cap / y

STOKHOLM RESOURCE INSTITUTE – May 2009

1 - 500

500 - 1000

1000 - 2000

2000 - 5000

5000 - 10000

10000 - 50000

50000 - 100000

> 100000

Limitations for Blue Water availability in SSA

Blue water year 2000 - m3 /capita /y

1 - 500

500 - 1000

1000 - 2000

2000 - 5000

5000 - 10000

10000 - 50000

50000 - 100000

> 100000

Stockholm Resource Institute – May 2009

Blue water year 2000 - m3 /capita /y

1 - 500

500 - 1000

1000 - 2000

2000 - 5000

5000 - 10000

10000 - 50000

50000 - 100000

> 100000

Stockholm Resource Institute – May 2009

Farming/ livelihood systems in Africa

Extremely diverse and tightly natural resource depending farming systems/ livelihoods generate adequate local responses.

The diversity of farming conditions and agro-biodiversity are composing a capital for adaptation to increasing markets and to climate change

Increasing energy and food pricesEnergy price tripled in 10 years – Food prices increased by 80%

Both trends compose a major exposure to African economiesEnergy cost will hit cost of irrigationFood prices are only partially reflected in producers’ price

Priorities for improved water management• Improve the productivity of green water ensuring 90% of food

production so far;• Promote land use planning and water harvesting where possible• Develop irrigated rice production while sharply reducing water

consumption• Rationalize traditional water use for irrigated vegetables and fruits

and improve safety of waste water recycling• Promote wherever economically viable complementary irrigation,

in particular for maize production• Organize the recharge of ground water bodies• Address water pricing issues to improve efficient water use• Address by regulations and enforcement water pollution from

agricultural/ non agricultural activities

Recent land use developments 1 – 1000 haCountry KENYA ETHIOPIA BURUNDI CAMEROON

Year 1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010Cereals 1,785.4 2,542.4 4,957.4 9,233.0 217.5 237.0 648.2 1,717.6

% irrigated 0.7 0.8 0 0.5 5.5 10.8 1.7 3.1

Legumes+oil seeds 956.6 1,275.9 1,234.4 2,281.7 273.3 284.7 421.6 975.6

% irrigated 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Roots + tubers + bananas

240.3 355.3 484.8 1,107.4 496.5 611.6 555.3 918.4

% irrigated + humid land

0 0 5.1 10.3 20.7 44.9 0 0

Industrial crops 429.3 515.6 575.4 837.8 60.4 29.6 902.1 1,341.3% irrigated 9.4 13.3 2.7 2.3 0 0 16.1 10.8

Vegetables + fruits 172.8 331.3 524.3 912.9 45.1 70.4 345.9 823.3% irrigated + humid land

71.2 52.5 86.3 86.7 60.3 66.8 68.1 83.2

TOTAL crops 3,584.4 5,020.5 7,776.3 14.372.9 1,092.8 1,229.2 2,872.6 5,776.3Total irrigated + humid land

163.5 242.7 487.1 939.6 142.2 212.5 391.4 738.2

IRRIGATED - FAO 66.6 116.0 219.0 350.4 14.4 30.8 21.0 34.2

Recent land use developments 2 – 1000 haCountry Benin Burkina Faso Ghana MaliYear 1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010

Cereals 643.9 1.048.6 2,529.9 4,291.5 853.0 1,602.1 2,438.7 3.968.8

% irrigated 1.2 3.8 0.9 3.1 5.7 11.3 8.1 17.5

Legumes+oil seeds 210.2 348.1 660.3 1.949.5 277.0 606.9 493.0 648.8

% irrigated 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Roots + tubers + bananas

221.6 509.7 8.9 9.8 714.3 1,873.9 7.4 24.3

% irrigated + humid land

1.2 0.7 20.1 20.9 0 0 24.3 34.4

Industrial crops 166.5 415.1 212.4 515.2 884.6 2,031.7 258.6 343.3

% irrigated 0.4 0.4 2.0 0.9 0 0 1.8 1.4

Vegetables + fruits 113.7 154.6 42.1 56.9 195.6 423.0 84.3 143.1

% irrigated + humid land

55.9 61.3 68.5 67.3 52.3 42.2 66.5 62.8

Total crops 1,355.8 2,476.1 3,453.6 6,839.9 2,824.5 6,537.6 3,281.9 5,128.5

Total Irrigated + humid land

74.9 140.0 56.1 176.6 151.3 359.7 255.8 787.4

Irrigated -FAO 9.7 23.0 15.4 21.4 2.6 30.3 18.0 430.0

Recent land use developments 3 – 1000 haCountry Nigeria Cameroon Madagascar South AfricaYear 1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010

Cereals 15,400.0 16,104.7 648.2 1,717.6 1,326.9 2,108.9 6,156.9 3,548.0

% irrigated 7.8 15.1 1.7 3.1 87.8 85.7 30.0 43.0

Legumes+oil seeds 3,482.8 6,337.7 421.6 975.6 99.2 149.2 861.4 881.7

% irrigated 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.0 35.3

Roots + tubers + bananas

3,248.8 8,519.7 555.3 918.4 534.3 628.7 92.1 89.5

% irrigated + humid land

1.2 14.9 7.3 12.3 8.0 9.7 100 100

Industrial crops 4,101.5 5,985.6 902.2 1,341.3 510.5 383.7 427.1 283.9

% irrigated 0.5 1.2 16.1 10.8 12.7 24.8 67.7 95.1

Vegetables + fruits 2.488.8 3,946.4 345.8 823.2 192.8 250.0 342.6 435.0

% irrigated + humid land

52.2 60.8 68.2 83.2 35.3 21.3 100 100

Total crops 28,559.9 40,510.4 2,872.6 5,776.3 2,663.7 3,550.6 7,881.1 5,237.9

Total Irrigated + humid land

2,536.2 5,174.1 417.1 936.6 1,371.1 2,085.2 2,715.4 2,632.5

Irrigated -FAO 232.8 330.0 21.0 34.2 1,087.0 1,084.0 1,200.0 1,670.0

Conclusions

Investments for irrigation have been high in few countries only;In most cases, the expansion of the cropped area has been at least as high as the expansion of irrigated areas;A large proportion of irrigation takes place in humid lowlands, taping surface and shallow ground waters through archaic systems;Irrigation is developed for rice production in modern irrigation schemes and in humid lowlands and for vegetable production in humid lowlands;Only in South Africa irrigation is largely developed for maize, soybeans and eventually canola production and for intensive fruit production.Irrigation has more impact on nutrition quality than on food security in most countries, while in the Sahel zone, it significantly contributes to the supply of grains.

Increasing public and private investments for irrigation should be combined with improved water efficiency and water productivity

THANK YOUaange@fara-africa.org