Some text added after the workshop to reflect verbal comments in this workshop presentation

Two potential objections to this workshop to deal with first:

• People don’t think human-caused climate change is happening so there will be no support for mitigation or adaptation planning. Answer: recent survey shows this is not true for Florida residents.

• There are so many different sea-level rise (SLR) forecasts and scenarios it is useless to plan. Answer: agencies have to plan for possible degrees of SLR that would have major consequences for their areas of responsibility.

Are most Florida residents climate change doubters: Not according to this survey. Most think it is real and primarily human-caused. However, a majority does not worry about it a lot now (economic concerns more pressing?)

SLR projection: currently there is great uncertainty about amount of potential SLR. However agencies need to work with projections weighing uncertainty against specific SLR thresholds that have serious consequences for the systems they manage.

Purpose of this workshop:

Develop tools and measures of human quality of life and environmental sustainability at specific locations that will be differently affected by sea-level rise.

These will have to take into account localized patterns conditions and historical patterns of in-migration and urban expansion.

Start with the latter.

Examples presented are for Miami-Dade County

Thanks to Miami-Dade County's ETSD's GIS Division and Dr. Keqi Zhang for data used in this presentation.

For this presentation assume a projected SLR of 2 feet above current SL by 2080. Areas in red (0-2 ft elevation) will be inundated. Areas in orange (3-6 ft) on barrier islands and along the coast will be at heightened risk for storm surge. Inland areas (west of the coastal ridge) at this 3-6 ft elevation may face frequent widespread flooding.

North Miami-Dade closer elevation view

South Miami-Dade closer elevation view

Urban development boundary

Salt water intrusion boundary

Where people live:Residences and year they were built

Urban growth

Where people live:Residences and year they were built

“Anglo” population pre-WWII moved next to the coast and down the coastal ridge.

African-American population stayed in the coastal ridge urban core in north Dade and in local communities in south Dade

Where people live:Residences and year they were built

Where people live:Residences and year they were built

Hispanic population growth in “Little Havana” urban core and as the major component of south Dade suburban expansion

Conclusion of previous slides: historical patterns of growth distributed over the coastal ridge and into lower elevation areas present challenges to planning for sea level rise given ethnic and cultural variation in public communication and localized politics.

Next, economic and housing conditions – possible need for higher population density on the coastal ridge areas and need for affordable workforce housing.

2000 Census block group median household income: ranges from $20K in red areas to $85K and higher in green.

2000 Census block group proportion homes rented: ranges from less than 8% in green areas to over 90% in red.

elevation

Miami-Dade County leads Florida in housing cost burden on its residents

2008 Miami-Dade County Workforce Housing Needs AssessmentFlorida International UniversityMetropolitan Center

Many thousands of housing units will be needed to meet workforce housing needs over the next 15 years – at prices much lower than prices of most of the current housing stock.

This and the next two slides show that, in addition to sea-level rise, planners must contend with an increasing lack of workforce housing. A result is that recent trends in housing and gentrification will not work as the sole mechanism for allocating housing in higher elevation areas.

Housing prices have fallen since 2007 when this study was done but not nearly enough to close the gap.

2008 Miami-Dade County Workforce Housing Needs AssessmentFlorida International UniversityMetropolitan Center

2008 Miami-Dade County Workforce Housing Needs AssessmentFlorida International UniversityMetropolitan Center

The previous slides have shown some of the issues planning must contend with. This will require tools and measures of human quality of life, economic factors, and environmental sustainability, at specific locations that will be differently affected by sea-level rise

One tool we will be looking at here is the Ecosystem Portfolio Model (EPM).

This and other tools require indicators and metrics that measure what our planning needs to attain. Later in the workshop we will develop some of these.

A final note

Public knowledge and opinion about decisions

communicated to neighbors and via internet

assessed by scientific sample surveys

Neighborhood planning meetings and charrettes

Public educationIndependent media /

journalism

I know no safe depositary of the ultimate powers of the society but the people themselves.

The information of the people at large can alone make them safe.

Thomas Jefferson