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STI Institutional Arrangements in Africa - Science in Service of Society

Sospeter MuhongoInternational Council for Science (ICSU)

Regional Office for Africas.muhongo@icsu-africa.org

www.icsu-africa.org

MONASH UNIVERSITYSouth Africa, 30 October 2007

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Economic Status

About 40% of Sub-Saharan Africa (ca. 250 million people) lives in absolute poverty

GNI: ca. US dollars 400 billion (Hong Kong: 176.2)GNI per capita: ca. US dollars 490 (Hong Kong: 25,860)

Highest GNI per capita (2004): GNI: (1) Seychelles: US$ 7,350 (1) South Africa (2) Mauritius: 4,100 (2) Nigeria(3) Botswana: 3,530(4) Gabon: 3,400(5) South Africa: 2,920

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$2.20 / day $0.90 / day

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Poverty: George Bernard Shaw (1856-1950), Irish dramatist

“The greatest of evils and the worst of crimes is poverty”

The African Women:└► produce 70% of the continent’s food└► work: ca. 65% of the continent’s working hours└►earn only 10% of the continent’s wealth└►own less than 1% of the continent’s property

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”Of the approximately 816 million people in Africa in 2001, it is estimated that:

1 in 4 have a radio (205m),

1 in 13 have a TV (62m)

1 in 35 have a mobile phone (24m)

1 in 40 have a fixed line (20m)

1 in 130 have a PC (5.9m)

1 in 60 use the Internet (5m)

1 in 400 have pay TV (2m)”ITU, UNESCO, Jensen

STATUS AND TRENDS OF ICTs in AFRICA

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SRTI: Conceptual change

Linear Model Research Technology

Circular Model

With Gap

Research

Technology

Without Gap

Application stimulates ResearchNew Technologies allow New DiscoveriesPrivate Sector is a Key player in R & D

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International Published Output (percentage)

Region and country 1988 1990 1995 2000 2003 percent change

Other Asia (excl China, S Korea, Singp, Taiw.) 2.17 2.08 1.96 1.94 2.26 + 4.12%

Near East/North Africa 1.69 1.62 1.66 1.76 1.93 + 13.83%

Central/South America 1.21 1.35 1.64 2.33 2.71 + 124.4%

Sub-Saharan Africa 0.97 0.86 0.72 0.63 0.60 - 0.382%

Source: Science and Engineering Indicators, 2006: derived from Thompson ISI, Social Science Index and Science Indexes

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The 360-degree curve (STI)

Science └└►► Technology

└└►► Innovation └└►► Wealth Creation

└└►► Science

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2000: Researchers per million inhabitants

78

309143

5543109

4006

5206

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Africa

S Africa

India

China

Germany

USA

Japan

Researchers

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2000: Shares of World GERD (global-gross expenditure on R&D)

0.6

0.3

1.6

6.7

7.1

35.6

13.2

0 10 20 30 40

Africa

S Africa

India

China

Germany

USA

Japan

% age

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Institutional Arrangements in Africa

African countries: 1% GDP for STI (public and private sectors)

STI institutions └└►► Private – Public Business Sectors

Budgets: └└►►training, research and innovation

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Exporters of Commercial Services: 2003

Top 10 developing country exporters of commercial services: └└►this accounts to 10% of World’s

Commercial Service Exports3. China: US$ 48 billion4. India: 25 billion5. Turkey: 20 billion6. Russia Fed. 18 billion7. Thailand 17 billion8. Malaysia 15 billion9. Mexico 13 billion10. Poland 12 billion11. Egypt 12 billion12. Brazil 10 billion

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STI & Wealth Creation

The leading STI fields in the 21st Century:● Life Science● Health Science● Biotechnology & Nanotechnology● Space Science● ICT● Agricultural Technologies & Industries● Science of Climate Change● S&T of Energy Resources and Coal

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Participation in Education: 2002/03Net Enrollment Ration: % of relevant age group

Primary Secondary South Africa 89 66Botswana 81 54 Lesotho 86 22Swaziland 75 32Mozambique 55 12

Egypt 90 81Jamaica 95 75Mongolia 79 77Hong Kong 98 72

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Freshwater: 2002

Access to improved water source% of urban % of rural

population population

South Africa 98 73Botswana 100 90Namibia 98 72Mozambique 76 24Lesotho 88 74Swaziland 87 42Angola 70 40

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Groundwater: Over 95% of the Earth’s useable fresh water is stored as groundwater

Transborder groundwater resources

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Health and Human Well-being in Africa

Population: ca. 880 millionAnnual Population Growth: 2-4%

Life Expectance at Birth: 45.8 years

Mortality rate: 103.1 (infants per 1000 live births)

Prevalence of HIV/AIDS:% age of population aged 15-49: ca 8.5%

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Dependence of Africa on Biological Production Systems

c.70% of Africa’s Workforce is employed in the AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

c.40% of GDP of African countries flows from AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS

c.80% of African population depends on TRADITIONAL MEDICINE

BIODIVERSTY FEEDING AFRICA:

Fishing, Hunting, Wild fruits as only source of livelihood to many African communities

PHARMACEUTICAL PRODUCTS (Development & Production):

Rely heavily on biological systems (i.e., flora and fauna)

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Milestones (SRTC): Science, Research, Technology, Innovation

Latest Developments in SRTI:

Brazil: the New Development Policy-└►►Accelerated Economic Growth

♦ Brazil produces > 10, 000 PhDs per annum♦ Brazil has 1,700 Research Groups dedicated to Biotechnology♦ Private & Public Investments in the Biotechnology Industry to

reach US$ 4.8 Billion over the next 10 years.♦ Goals: to produce (a) cheaper medicines and vaccines, (b)

industrial enzymes, (c) more nutritive foods, etc♦ 4 Priority Areas, (a) Human Health, (b) Arable & Cattle

Farming, (c) Industry and (d) Environment

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Science, Research, Technology & Innovation

China’s Fast-Track Science Plan:

2007: S&T accounts for 40% of the country’s economy(Japan, UK and USA – up to 80% of their economies)

2050: S&T should account for 75% of the country’s economic growth

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SRTI in China

China’s Fast-Track Science Plan:5-year Key Technology Research Development Program♦ Efficient Energy & Resources Utilization♦ Agricultural Technologies♦ Technologies for the Information Technology Sector and for the

Manufacturing Equipment♦ Population, Health and Public Security

Investment: US$ 2.5 Billion in 5 years (Private & Public Partnership)Sources of Funding: (a) Central Government – US$ 925 Million, (b) Local

Government (c) Business & Research Institutions

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STRI in South Korea

New Miracles:National Ambitions – ♦ 10th Position in the World in Scientific Competitiveness♦ 5th Position in the World in Technological Capability by the end of 2007

How is this possible?♦ R&D Research Budget growing at ca. 9.7% annually for the last 6 years

└►► reaching ca. 3% of GDP in 2006♦ R&D Investment to grow in Double-Digit range Every Year for the next 15

Years

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South Korea

Where did the success come from?

♦ Mass of Highly Educated People♦ Networked Society – Information Infrastructure

♦ Innovation System (ubiquitous)♦ Heavy Investments in R&D by the

Government and the Business Sector

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South Korea – 2007 projects

♦ Over US$ 1.0 Trillion (Euro 820 Million) to bolster the country’s Biotech and Nanotech capabilities└►► Biotechnology Research-

(a) Brain Research (b) Natural Ageing process – slowing down the process

└►► Nanotechnology Research- (a) Nano-mechatronics (b) Development of Tera-Level Nano Materials

♦ Korean Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research (KSTAR) Nuclear Fusion Reactor

♦ Participation in the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER)

♦ Aerospace – 6 satellites are being assembled in labs this year and the expected launch of South Korean’s very own satellite using an indigenous rocklet will take place in late 2008.

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2000: World GDP, Population, R&D

WorldGERD

World GDP

WorldResearchers

WorldPopulation

72%

28%

80%58%21%Developed Countries

20%42%79%Developing Countries

Global-Gross Expenditure on R&D (GERD): 2000- US$ 746 billion

1997- US$ 547 billion

World Researchers: 1997 – Developing Countries: 28%

1985 - “ 12%

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SCIENCE PLAN I: SUSTAINABLE ENERGY

Access to electricity – Africa: Energy for Sustainable Development

└►►►affordable, accessible and reliable energy service

Population without access to electricity:

Sub-Saharan Africa: ca. 77%North Africa & Middle East: ca. 9%China: ca. 1.5%India: ca. 55% (India’s consumption>> Africa)Latin America: ca. 13%

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PHANEROZOIC OF AFRICA:CAMBRIAN to PRESENT

Earth formation 0ca. 4 500 million years (4.5 Ga)

Life Explosion

AFRICA: STABLE CONTINENT OVER THE LAST 500 Ma

►► ACCUMULATION OF A VARIETY OF MINERAL RESOURCES, INCLUDING FOSSIL FUEL ENERGY

PRECAMBRIAN

545 Ma

PHANEROZOIC

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Science Plan I:Sustainable Energy

ENERGY RESOURCES IN AFRICAClassical sources:♦ Oil – about 10% of the world’s reserves (Sudan, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Zambia)♦ Natural Gas - about 8% of world’s reserves, to last >50 years (Egypt: 100 yrs)♦ Coal – about 6% of world’s reserves, to last >300 years (Tanzania: >500 million tons)

♦ Nuclear- Uranium reserves to last >100 years♦ Hydro-power: about 12% of the world’s total

African Drainage Systems (Rivers), e.g. River Congo

Other major sources:♦ Bio-fuels, e.g. Mauritius: 20% from sugar cane (bagasse for electricity)♦ Solar♦ Wind♦ Geothermal: Kenya – about 25% of the total electricity consumed♦ Ocean – (a) waves/tides, and (b) hydrocarbons on the sea-bed♦ Hydrogen

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Weathering of Precambrian cratons, sediment accumulation in continental basins, Rift volcanic activity,…

COAL, OIL, URANIUM in basins,

PHOSPHATE, GYPSUM, BAUXITE

DIAMOND CHIMNEYS;

PLACER DEPOSITS OF gold, diamond, titanium sands,..)

Precambrian basement

Atlas range

Cape fold belt

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Sustainable Energy for Africa: Proposed Projects

Project SE1 (takes off by January 2008): Development of Energy Scenarios & Models for Africa

Project SE2 (takes off by January 2008): Biofuels for Africa

● Provision of substantial increase in reliable and sustainable energy access for rural and urban areas

● Increase access to high quality, reliable and affordable energy in a sustainable manner

● Strengthening and retention of Human and Institutional capacities in the Energy Sector

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The Gondwana

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Financial Resources● African Governments● bi- and multi-lateral funding resources● AU/NEPAD and ECA initiatives● African Economic Communities (e.g. SADC, ECOWAS, EAC)● African Development Bank (ADB)● European Union (EU) Energy Initiative● EU/Africa Collaborative Programmes, e.g. EU-FP7● Private Sector● Financial Resources from Joint Projects, examples:

(a) ICSU Unions, e.g. IUGG/GIA, INQUA, IUGS/IGCP(b) UNESCO (c) GECAFS(d) TWAS/NASAC/AAS(e) UN-proclaimed Years, e.g. IPY, IYPE

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CURRENT STATUS

HEALTH SERVICES ??

FOOD SECURITY NUTRITION SECURITY

DISEASE BURDEN

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TARGETACCESS TO HEALTH SERVICES

DRUG DEV. FROM TM

BALANCED NUTRITION

FOOD SECURITY

HAPPY FAMILIES

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II –HEALTH & HUMAN WELL-BEING

FOOD SECURITY: feeding the hungry world

Population 1999 6 billion people 2050 9 billion people

90% of population will be in the South

Poverty:1.3 billion afflicted by poverty

Malnutrition840 million people suffer from malnutrition

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How can so many genes make rice?

Proposed number of rice genes:

approximately

50,000

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INDIA: Agriculture

2 Centers of Excellence will be created (US$ 22 Million):■ North India at Pantnagar– Govender Ballab Pant University of Agriculture & Technology

■ South India at Coimbatore– Tamil Nadu Agriculture University

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II–HEALTH & HUMAN WELL BEING

Nanotechnology: Application in Health Service

Potential for treating disease like MALARIA, TB HIV/AIDS, etc

Advantages:● Cheaper medicines and vaccines● Minimize the dose of drugs administered● Reduce dose frequency● Minimize side effects● Reduce the cost of treatment

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Science Plan II:Selected Research Themes

◘ Understanding the scientific basis of diseases in Africa

◘ Health promotion and disease prevention◘ Health systems analysis and development◘ Traditional/Complementary and alternative

medicine◘ Promotion of human well-being:

└└►► clean and safe water food/nutrition habitable shelter mineral resources

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III-NATURAL & HUMAN-INDUCED HAZARDS AND DISASTERS

Hydro-Meteorological Hazards & Disasters:● Floods● Mass movements, e.g. erosion, landslides, siltation

● Heat Waves● Wildfires● Tropical cyclones, hurricanes● Tornados, hailstorms, dust storms

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Rainfall in Africa

Flooding in BurundiFeb. 2007

Picture from BBC

Flooding in MozambiqueFeb. 2007

Picture from BBC

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FLOODS:Mozambique in 2000

♦ Affected 4 million people with estimated 700 deaths ♦ Losses amounting to ca. US$ 500 million♦ GDP growth rate decreased from 10% to 2%

Primary cause: (a) abnormal rainfall due to tropical cyclones causing

excessive flows from 9-12 rivers with catchments in other countries, especially the Limpopo River

Contributory causes:(a) Land degradation(b) Deforestation of the Limpopo River catchment area.

(c) Increased population density along river banks.

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Hazards & Disasters -cont-

Geological Hazards & Disasters:● Earthquakes● Volcanoes● Tsunamis● Collapse of constructions

Biological Hazards & Disasters:● Diseases● Pest Infestation● Biological Weapons

Technological Hazards & Disasters:● Air pollution (e.g., green-house gases)● Water pollution (e.g., heavy metals-Pb, Cd, As)

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The threat and major source for tsunamis

© GFZ, Potsdam

© GFZ, Potsdam

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Africa’s Rotation PoleThe Cameroon hotspot : 200 Ma – RecentLake Nyos Disaster – 4,000 people died in 1984

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HAZARDS & DISASTERS: CURRENT STATUS

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Science Plan III:Selected Research Themes● Creation and maintenance of a multidisciplinary hazard database

● Vulnerability science

● Science and policy linkage

● Integrated modelling of multiple disasters

● Geo-hazards (UN-proclaimed IYPE)

└└►►Implementation Strategy: the same approach as for Sustainable Energy:

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IV-Global Change:complex interaction between the core-mesosphere-asthenosphere-lithosphere- --biosphere-atmosphere

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Fundable Projects under preparation

Project I:Hydro-meteorological Hazards and Disasters in Africa

Project II:Geo-hazards in Africa

(within the framework of the UN-proclaimed IYPE)

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Science Plan IV:Global Change in Africa

Proposed Research Areas:♦ Land Degradation, Biodiversity Loss and

Human Well-being♦ Rainfall ♦ Resilience of Food Systems♦ Water Resources and their Governance♦ Atmospheric Pollution♦ Africa’s Oceanographic Uniqueness

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The Climate Change threats: Global Warming

♦ Since 1860 Global Temperature Rise is: 0.6+0.20C♦ Last 2 decades were the hottest in this century♦ 20th Century:

Average atmospheric temperature rise of 0.7 ºC in Africa

♦ Since 1950: Sea surface temperature rise: + 1ºC in the Indian ocean

♦ Projections – Rainfall –

• Increased frequency of floods• Increased frequency and duration of droughts

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The Climate Change threats: Global Warming

GHGs changing due to Human Activities:└►since pre-Industrial Era (~ 1750)

• CO2 by 30%• CH4 by over 100%• N2O by 15%

concentrations are higher now than any time during the last 420,000 yrs

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Great KarooPermo-Carboniferous glaciation of Gondwana and the largest mass extinction at the end of Permian (ca. 250 Ma ago) - (85% extinction of all organisms)

New Slides (December 2006)

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Lemur Chameleon of Madagascar: A microcontinent (~ 50 Ma to Recent) evolving independently through time

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Zn Cu Co

CrPt

FeMn

Sn W

Au gems

AuAu

2Ga3Ga

proto-crust

PaleoproterozoicArchean

Evolution of the African crust over the last 3.5 Ga Evolution of the African crust over the last 3.5 Ga

Mesoprot. Neoprot. Phaner.1GaEarth

formation

Zn Udiamond

Stabilisation / breakdown / extension(basin related & anorogenic mineral deposits:e.g., oil/gas, diamond, Fe, Cr, PGM)

Dominant crustal accretion / convergence (active margin-type & orogenic mineral deposits:e.g., Au, Sn, Wo, precious stones)

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Germanium

Titanium

Gallium

Rhenium

LCD

ExhaustPlatinum

New Jets

Palladium

Tantalum

0 - 2 years

from 2 to 5 years

Post-crisis

CrisisForecasting

Cell Phone 3D

Indium

Turbine

Mobile internet

LED

Cobalt

Selenium

Forecasting High-Tech Metals crisis

Time

Price

GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AFRICA

“Hype cycle” & killer applications

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New Africa & New DevelopmentRhetoric ──► ActionReports ──► Usable Products

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AFRICAN scientists, policy- and decision-makers:

Mwalimu Nyerere: “We must run while they are walking”“It can be done play your part”“Political Independence means work”

Science in Service of SocietyThank you for your attention