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John Stedman 23 April 2010. Source apportionment of PM in the PCM model. Presentation Structure. Pollution Climate Mapping (PCM) Overview of the project Overview of the model PM 10 and PM 2.5 models for 2008 Introduction Maps of some of the components Verification plots - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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1
Source apportionment of PM in the PCM model
John Stedman
23 April 2010
2
Presentation Structure
• Pollution Climate Mapping (PCM)– Overview of the project– Overview of the model
• PM10 and PM2.5 models for 2008– Introduction– Maps of some of the components– Verification plots– Source apportionment at monitoring sites– Source apportionment for population-weighted means
Pollution Climate Mapping (PCM)
• Policy Advice to Defra and the DAs – Brings together information from ambient measurements, emission inventories
and models
• Models– GIS-based PCM models
• Ambient air quality directive reporting, Policy support, AQS reporting, AQS review, AQEG
– Mapping current concentrations– Baseline & scenario based projections– Health impact assessment for scenarios
• SO2, NOx, NO2, PM10, PM2.5 ,Pb, CO, benzene, ozone, BaP, As, Cd, Ni, (Hg)
Project Manager: John Stedman
3
PCM GIS-based models
• Maps built up from many layers
1. Regional (interpolated from rural measurements)2. Point sources modelled using dispersion model3. Area sources modelled using a dispersion kernel approach4. Other pollutant specific layers5. Roadside increment model
• Calibrated using automatic monitoring data from the AURN• 1 km grid resolutions + urban major road links
• Many similarities between ‘gaseous’ and ‘particle’ models, and some differences
• Particle model (PM10, PM2.5, As, Cd, Ni, Pb) components such as re-suspension consistent with each other and other components are consistent with the gaseous models
4
PCM GIS-based models: inputs (1)
• Measurements– Rural measurements to define regional concentrations
− SIA, Cl– National network measurements to calibrate models
− AURN (FDMS)– Other measurements to verify models
− AURN TEOM VCM, partisol− AEA Calibration Club− ERG
• Emission inventories– 1 km x 1 km emission maps– Road link emissions– Emission projections
− NAEI year to base year and NAEI year to projection year (e.g. 2015)
5
PCM GIS-based models: inputs (2)
• Met data– Area dispersion kernels– Point sources
• Model results– HARM/ELMO for SOA– EMEP for SIA emission sensitivity coefficients for projection
– VCM for PM10
– TRACK for regional primary PM
• Land cover map– For re-suspension modelling
6
PCM GIS-based models: outputs
• GIS maps• Base year and projections
– Background 1 km x 1 km– Roadside ~ 9000 urban road links
• Background and roadside exceedance statistics– By zone
• Population-weighted mean background concentration– For health impact assessment, CBA
• Source apportionment– Policy development (MACC)– TEN – LAQM/DMRB
7
PM10 and PM2.5 annual mean models for 2008• Pragmatic approach including many different layers
– Process based models as far as possible– Loosely based on ‘Pragmatic mass closure model’
• PM2.5 and PM2.5-10 for each component – Consistent models for PM10 and PM2.5
8
PM10 and PM2.5 annual mean models for 2008• Secondary inorganic aerosol
– Interpolated from SO4, NO3 and NH4 measurements– Scaled for counter-ions and bound water, size fractions
• Secondary organic aerosol– HARM/ELMO model results
• Large point sources of primary particles– Explicitly modelled using ADMS
• Small point sources of primary particles– Small points model using a dispersion kernels derived using ADMS
• Regional primary particles– TRACK model using EMEP and NAEI emissions
• Area sources of primary particles– Dispersion kernels derived using ADMS– Calibrated using AURN measurements
9
PM10 and PM2.5 annual mean models for 2008• Rural calcium rich dusts from soil resuspension
– Resuspension model – Emission depends on land cover and hour-by-hour met
• Urban calcium rich dusts– Surrogate spatial distribution based on population
• Regional iron rich dusts– Assumed constant 1 µg m-3 PM10
• Iron rich dusts from vehicle related resuspension– Resuspension model – Emission depends on HGV flow on major roads and hour-by-hour met
• Sea salt– Interpolated from Cl measurements– Scaled for– counter-ions
• Residual– Assumed constant 1 µg m-3 PM10
10
Maps of some of the components
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Maps of some of the components
12
a) Contribution to PM10 from rural Ca rich dusts associated with re-suspension from soils (g m-3)
b) Contribution to PM10 from urban Ca rich dusts associated with urban activities (g m-3)
c) Contribution to PM10 from regional Fe rich dusts (g m-3)
d) Contribution to PM10 from Fe rich dusts associated with vehicle movements (g m-3)
PM10 and PM2.5 in 2008 (g m-3)
13
Verification plots
14
Verification of background annual mean PM10 (gravimetric) model 2008
Verification of roadside annual mean PM10 (gravimetric) model 20079
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Measured PM10 (µg m-3, gravimetric)
Mo
del
led
PM
10 (
µg
m-3
, g
ravi
met
ric)
National network FDMS(Calibration)Verification nationalnetwork gravimetricVerification sites VCM
Verification nationalnetwork TEOMVerification sites TEOM
Verification sites FDMS
Verification sitesgravimetricy = x
y = x + 50%
y = x - 50%
0
10
20
30
40
50
0 10 20 30 40 50
Measured PM10 (µg m-3, gravimetric)
Mo
del
led
PM
10 (
µg
m-3
, g
ravi
met
ric)
Calibration FDMS
Verification national network gravimetric
Verification sites VCM
Verification national network TEOM
Verification sites TEOM
Verification sites gravimetric
y = x
y = x + 50%
y = x - 50%
Source apportionment at FDMS monitoring sites 2008
15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Po
rt T
albo
t Mar
gam
(8)
Bir
min
gham
Cen
tre
(4)
Man
ches
ter P
icca
dilly
(4)
Sh
effie
ld C
entr
e (4
)
New
cast
le C
entre
(4)
Co
ven
try M
emor
ial P
ark
(5)
Live
rpoo
l Sp
eke
(5)
Wir
ral T
ranm
ere
(5)
Leic
este
r Cen
tre (6
)
So
uth
amp
ton
Cen
tre
(6)
Car
diff
Cen
tre (6
)
No
ttin
gham
Cen
tre
(6)
Hul
l Fre
eto
wn
(6)
Bri
sto
l St P
auls
(6)
Ply
mo
uth
Cen
tre
(6)
Ed
inbu
rgh
St L
eona
rds
(6)
Bla
ckp
ool M
arto
n (6
)
New
po
rt (7
)
So
uth
end-
on-S
ea (7
)
Pre
sto
n (7
)
Auc
hen
cort
h M
oss
(10)
PM
10 c
on
cen
trat
ion
(µ
g m
-3)
Site name (DfT area type)
Local sources
Traffic (brake and tyre wear)
Traffic (exhaust emissions)
Urban background sources
Other
Shipping
Aircraft
Off road mobile machinery
Domestic
Commercial
Industry
Traffic (brake and tyre wear)
Traffic (exhaust emissions)
Urban dusts
Regional background
Rural dusts
Secondary aerosol
Long range transport primary
Residual
Sea salt
Measured
Industrial Urban centre/ urban background/ suburban sites Rural
Source apportionment at FDMS monitoring sites 2008
16
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
To
wer
Ham
lets
4 -
Bla
ckw
all (
2)
Gre
enw
ich
9 -W
esth
orne
A
ve (3
)
Eal
ing
2 (F
DM
S) -
Act
on
To
wn
Hal
l (3)
Bex
ley
7 (F
DM
S) -
Th
ames
R
d N
ort
h (3
)
Gre
enw
ich
13 -
Plu
mst
ead
H
igh
Str
eet (
3)
Sw
anse
a R
oad
side
(7)
Ch
iche
ster
Ro
adsi
de
(FD
MS
) (10
)
PM
10
co
nc
en
tra
tio
n (
µg
m-3
)
Site name (DfT area type)
Roadside sites Local sources
Traffic (brake and tyre wear)
Traffic (exhaust emissions)
Urban background sources
Other
Shipping
Aircraft
Off road mobile machinery
Domestic
Commercial
Industry
Traffic (brake and tyre wear)
Traffic (exhaust emissions)
Urban dusts
Regional background
Rural dusts
Secondary aerosol
Long range transport primary
Residual
Sea salt
Measured
Source apportionment at TEOM VCM and Partisol monitoring sites 2008
17
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Lon
don
Har
lingt
on (3
)
Gra
ng
emou
th (8
)
Scu
nth
orpe
Tow
n (8
)
Lon
don
Blo
omsb
ury
(1)
Lon
don
Wes
tmin
ster
(1)
Lon
don
N. K
ensi
ngto
n (2
)
Lon
don
N. K
ensi
ngto
n P
AR
TIS
OL
(2)
Lon
don
Bex
ley
(3)
Gla
sgow
Cen
tre
(4)
Leed
s C
entr
e (4
)
Bo
urn
emou
th (6
)
Po
rtsm
out
h (6
)
No
rwic
h C
entr
e (7
)
Leam
ing
ton
Sp
a (8
)
Th
urro
ck (8
)
Auc
hen
cort
h M
oss
(10)
Har
wel
l (10
)
Har
wel
l PA
RT
ISO
L (1
0)
Ro
ches
ter S
toke
(10)
PM
10 c
on
cen
trat
ion
(µ
g m
-3)
Site name (DfT area type)
VCM and Partisol sites
Local sources
Traffic (brake and tyre wear)
Traffic (exhaust emissions)
Urban background sources
Other
Shipping
Aircraft
Off road mobile machinery
Domestic
Commercial
Industry
Traffic (brake and tyre wear)
Traffic (exhaust emissions)
Urban dusts
Regional background
Rural dusts
Secondary aerosol
Long range transport primary
Residual
Sea salt
Measured
Source apportionment for population-weighted means
180
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Scotland Wales Northern Ireland Inner London Outer London Rest of England UK
µg m
-3
PM2.5 source apportionment 2008
Local traffic
Local non-traffic
Regional primary
Secondary PM
Other anthropogenicNon-Anthropogenic