Summary social statistics for…

South Oxfordshire Vale of White Horse

1 July 2014 Margaret Melling, District Data Analysis Service

This session – social statistics

Part 1: How South Oxfordshire and Vale of White Horse districts are changing

• Population, housing, age, ethnicity, access to services

• Q&A

Part 2: Focus on the Economy

• Jobs, businesses

• Unemployment

• Home working and self-employment

• Long distance commuting

• Q&A

INTRODUCTION

District Data Analysis service - helping Oxfordshire’s district councils to make use of data and evidence

• Jointly funded by Oxfordshire’s district councils, annual agreement: 2012-13, 2013-14 and 2014-15

• 2 days per week of dedicated analyst time hosted by Oxford City Council providing:

– Chart of the month, local area profiles and summary leaflets

– Presentations

– Web pages with library of resources

– Enquiry service by email or phone to provide advice and guidance on sources of social, economic and environmental data

Recent topics

• Participation in sport and active recreation

• Long distance commuting

• Residents employed by the Armed Forces

• Unemployed

• Enterprises

• Car ownership by single older people

Supporting the work of district councils

• Supporting communities…

– Community-led and Neighbourhood plans

– S106 negotiations and other funding bids

• District services…

– Planning for housing, housing services

– Planning for local infrastructure

– Supporting the local economy

– Supporting access to services, ethnicity, language, health/mobility, age

How many car parking spaces are needed in a new housing scheme

for older people?

How many young people will live in the

catchment of the leisure centre in 10

years time?

How many full time and part time jobs are available locally?

How representative are our consultation

findings?

Social and economic trends (e.g. size of household, age of

occupants)

Part of building a comprehensive evidence base

Operational data (e.g. volume of waste

collected)

Customer surveys / consultations

(e.g. satisfaction with waste service)

Evidence

PART 1: CHANGING DISTRICTS

Source: www.visionofbritain.org.uk

1940

Source:

www.visionofbritain.org.uk

Land

Utilisation

Survey of

Britain

1940

Source: www.visionofbritain.org.uk

Land Utilisation Survey of Britain

Most rapid population growth between 1931 and 1971

+2.5k per decade

Source: www.visionofbritain.org.uk

Total resident population (current district boundaries)

South

and Vale

+27k

per

decade

+13k per

decade

Compared with recent high population growth in Oxford city

From Oxford Strategic Partnership presentation Mark Fransham, original source: www.visionofbritain.org.uk

Oxford city population 1801 to 2011

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

1801

1811

1821

1831

1841

1851

1861

1871

1881

1891

1901

1911

1921

1931

1941

1951

1961

1971

1981

1991

2001

2011

2021

Tota

l po

pu

lati

on

5,000 per

decade

3,000

10,000

15,000

2001 to 2011 growth in population also below average growth in region and nationally

+10,000

+17,700

+6,000 +5,400

+9,100

Source: ONS Census 2001 table KS02, Census 2011 table KS102

2001 to 2011 CHANGE in resident population

2001 to 2011 population growth in older age group

2001 to 2011 CHANGE Aged 0 to 19

Aged 20 to 59

Aged 60+

Source: ONS Census 2001 table KS02, Census 2011 table KS102 BUT a big variation in age by local area…

Areas with highest % young people Ranked 1 Benson

South Oxfordshire 011C

Residents of households

Age 0-15 32% (489)

Age 65+ 4% (64)

TOTAL 1,543

Source: ONS Census 2011 table LC1104

Vale of White Horse 003A

Residents of households

Age 0-15 31% (447)

Age 65+ 6% (90)

TOTAL 1,427

Source: ONS Census 2011 table LC1104

Areas with highest % young people Ranked 2 Shippon

Vale of White Horse 008C

Residents of households

Age 0-15 30% (426)

Age 65+ 10% (140)

TOTAL 1,411

Source: ONS Census 2011 table LC1104

Areas with highest % young people Ranked 3 area of Abingdon

South Oxfordshire 018D

Residents of households

Age 0-15 15% (210)

Age 65+ 35% (481)

TOTAL 1,389

Source: ONS Census 2011 table LC1104

Areas with highest % older people Ranked 1 area of Goring

South Oxfordshire 20C

Residents of households

Age 0-15 16% (206)

Age 65+ 30% (389)

TOTAL 1,289

Source: ONS Census 2011 table LC1104

Areas with highest % older people Ranked 2 area of Sonning Common

South Oxfordshire 17D

Residents of households

Age 0-15 18% (232)

Age 65+ 30% (388)

TOTAL 1,297

Source: ONS Census 2011 table LC1104

Areas with highest % older people Ranked 3 area of Henley-on-Thames

Increase in number of flats in Vale of White Horse

542

789622

819

36

419

729930

2,004

187

Detached Semi-detached Terraced Purpose built flat Flat conversion

South Oxfordshire Vale of White Horse

CHANGE in dwellings 2001 to 2011

Sources: ONS Census 2011 table KS401 Census 2001 table UV55

2,004 more flats in Vale than in 2001

• Largest 7 parishes have 71% of purpose built flats and 49% of flat conversions in South and Vale

• Other parishes with higher numbers of flat conversions = North Hinksey, Cumnor and Goring

Majority of flats are in main towns

Source: ONS Census 2011 table KS401

Count of households in purpose built flats and flat conversions (2011)

All

households

Purpose

built flats

Flat

conversionsDistrict South Oxfordshire 56,663 4,943 859

District Vale of White Horse 51,036 5,536 903

Vale Abingdon 14,380 2,744 253

South Didcot 10,085 1,178 63

South Henley-on-Thames 5,687 954 204

South Thame 4,877 646 58

Vale Wantage 4,867 831 98

South Wallingford 3,432 618 89

Vale Great Faringdon 3,135 500 113

46,463 7,471 878

43% 71% 50%

Districts and parishes

TOTAL in 7 parishes

% of South and Vale

Cheapest market housing over 10 times lower earnings in South Oxfordshire and 8 times in Vale

Ratio of lower quartile house prices to lower quartile

earnings, 1997-2012

Source: gov.uk live table 572 last updated April 2014

7

10.5

6

8

4

6.5

Ce

nsu

s 2

00

1

Ce

nsu

s 2

011

10.5 times lower quartile earnings at the time of the Census 2011 survey

Growing private rented sector

Private rented as percent of households

Census 2011

South Oxfordshire 13.3%

Vale of White Horse 13.6%

South East 16.8%

England 16.3%

• Significant increase in

% rented households between

2001 and 2011

• In 2011 still below regional and

national averages

16 of 58 wards with over 15% private rented households

Benson

Didcot

Marcham

and

Shippon

Shrivenham

Abingdon

Henley

Thame

Faringdon

Wantage

Census 2011

Source: ONS Census 2011 table KS402

Wallingford

District Ward Count Percentage

South Benson 2,215 663 29.9%

Vale Marcham and Shippon 1,173 342 29.2%

Vale Shrivenham 1,929 541 28.0%

Vale Abingdon Abbey and Barton 2,612 684 26.2%

South Didcot Ladygrove 3,173 683 21.5%

South Didcot Northbourne 2,384 472 19.8%

South Crowmarsh 973 185 19.0%

South Henley North 2,616 486 18.6%

South Henley South 2,641 482 18.3%

South Sandford 1,038 186 17.9%

South Watlington 2,252 395 17.5%

Vale Hendreds 1,692 282 16.7%

Vale North Hinksey and Wytham 1,885 311 16.5%

Vale Faringdon and The Coxwells 3,386 542 16.0%

Vale Craven 972 153 15.7%

South Thame North 2,301 348 15.1%

All

households

Private rented

Growth of social rented sector in Vale of White Horse

Social rented as percent of households

Census 2011

South Oxfordshire 11.4%

Vale of White Horse 13.3%

South East 13.7%

England 17.7%

• Growth in proportion of

Social rented

households between

2001 and 2011 Vale is

against downward trend

in region and nationally

16 of 58 wards with over 15% social rented households

Census 2011

Didcot

Abingdon

Henley

Thame

Faringdon

Wantage

Source: ONS Census 2011 table KS402

Wallingford

District Ward All households Count Percentage

Vale Abingdon Caldecott 1,830 602 32.9%

South Wallingford North 2,647 598 22.6%

Vale Abingdon Northcourt 1,987 415 20.9%

Vale Faringdon and The Coxwells 3,386 691 20.4%

South Berinsfield 2,403 480 20.0%

Vale Abingdon Ock Meadow 2,187 425 19.4%

South Didcot Northbourne 2,384 452 19.0%

Vale Wantage Segsbury 1,612 299 18.5%

South Didcot Park 2,311 399 17.3%

Vale Hendreds 1,692 283 16.7%

Vale Abingdon Fitzharris 1,862 302 16.2%

Vale Sutton Courtenay and Appleford 1,154 187 16.2%

Vale Wantage Charlton 3,105 500 16.1%

South Didcot All Saints 2,265 363 16.0%

Vale Abingdon Abbey and Barton 2,612 416 15.9%

Vale Greendown 910 143 15.7%

Social rented

Demographic change helps to predict demand for services

Overall population growth and changes in types of housing including tenure

Demand for services Location of services

• Areas of new housing tend to have much higher rates of children than average

• Possible to use historical data to model how age profile of new developments will change

For example..

Accessing services – mobility, language

• Those who might be less mobile

– Older people living alone without access to private transport

– People in poor health or with caring responsibilities

• Those who might have language / culture differences

– Ethnicity, language

Higher proportions of single older people outside major urban centres

Source: ONS Interactive map

Households with single person aged 65+ living alone

2,500 older people living alone without a car in rural areas

Source: Census 2011 table DC1401

Percent of all households occupied by people aged 65+ living alone

South Oxfordshire => 6,570 single older people

Vale of White Horse => 5,957 single older people

With a car Without a car

Towns Rural

With a car Without a car

Towns Rural

Becoming more ethnically diverse

Vale of White Horse

South Oxfordshire

CHANGE in resident population by ethnic group, 2001 to 2011

Sources: ONS Census 2001 table KS06; Census 2011 table KS201

increase in population between 2001 and 2011

Low proportion of residents overall “cannot speak English well” (or at all)

% of resident population aged 3 and over who “cannot speak English well”

or “cannot speak English”

Sources: ONS Census 2001 table QS205

541 484

Small ethnic group of Gypsy or Irish Travellers

Nationally 24% of

Gypsy or Irish

Traveller live in a

caravan or

temporary structure

White: Gypsy

or Irish

Traveller

Caravan or

other mobile

or temporary

structure

South Oxfordshire 135 921

Vale of White Horse 109 541

Sandford 27 105

Wheatley 17 164

Shrivenham 16 4

Great Milton 14 15

Benson 12 4

Crowmarsh 12 2

Didcot Northbourne 12 86

Kennington and South Hinksey 12 13

Berinsfield 11 10

Faringdon and The Coxwells 11 1

• 244 residents of

South and Vale

identified as Gypsy

or Irish traveller in

2011

Sources: ONS Census 2001 tables DC2101, KS401

2,500 older people living at home with highest health needs

Availability of care - an issue to monitor

Vale

South

Accessing services - growing internet use

• Access to the Internet using a mobile phone more than doubled between 2010 and 2013, from 24% to 53%.

• In 2013, 72% of all adults bought goods or services online, up from 53% in 2008.

• In 2013, 36 million adults (73%) in Great Britain accessed the Internet every day, 20 million more than in 2006, when directly comparable records began.

4.1

4.5

4.9

5.8

6.4

7.0

7.4

7.6

7.7

7.9

8.3

8.4

10.2

11.3

12.8

16.5

8.5

Wokingham

Vale of White Horse

South Oxfordshire

Chiltern

South Bucks

West Oxfordshire

Aylesbury Vale

Wycombe

Cherwell

Bracknell Forest

West Berkshire

Windsor and Maidenhead

Oxford

Milton Keynes

Reading

Slough

Thames Valley

South and Vale below Thames Valley average on rate of violence per 1,000 population

Violence against the person with

and without injury per 1,000

population 2012-13

Source: Neighbourhood Statistics, Notifiable offences recorded by the Police

2012-13 Violence against the person with and without injury

Summary – part 1

• 2001 to 2011 population growth in older age group

• Market housing remains unaffordable

• Growing private rented sector

• Risk of isolated older people in rural areas

• Growing internet use

Questions?

PART 2: FOCUS ON THE ECONOMY

Growth in employee jobs between 2009 and 2012

• 110,000 employee jobs in South and Vale (2012)

• +4,200 additional jobs since 2009

– South and Vale +4%, England +1%, SE +1%, London +7%

– +1,900 (more) Professional, scientific & technical jobs in South Oxfordshire

– +1,200 (more) Business, admin & support jobs in Vale of White Horse

– -1,100 (fewer) Construction jobs in South and Vale

Didcot + under 100 Abingdon + under 100

Chalgrove +1,600 (inc Monument Park)

Greendown ward +800 Harwell +500 Source: ONS Business

Register and

Employment Survey

Top 3 sectors account for 38% of jobs in South and Vale

Total South and Vale workplace population = 124,000

Workplace population (Census 2011) All usual residents aged 16 to 74 in employment in the area the week before the census

Source: ONS Census

2011 table WP605

Possible to highlight jobs in detail from Census 2011 data

Culham E33038724

TOTAL 1,673 workplace jobs

Professional, scientific and technical

activities 789 (47%)

Public administration and defence;

compulsory social security 321 (19%)

Culham RAL

Rutherford Appleton E33043948

TOTAL 2,097 workplace jobs

Professional, scientific and technical

activities 1,444 (69%)

Education 148 (7%)

Top area for manufacturing in South and Vale

E33038751

TOTAL 1,206 workplace jobs

Manufacturing 431 (36%)

Wholesale and retail trade; repair of

motor vehicles and motor cycles

175 (15%)

Total of 9,119 manufacturing jobs in South and Vale

Above average % of small businesses in South Oxfordshire

Growth in South and Vale business enterprises

Annual change in total

number of active

enterprises

Source: ONS Business demography published Nov 2013

Working age job seeker allowance claimants below 1% and almost at pre-recession levels

People claiming job seeker allowance as percent of

resident population aged 16 to 64

Source: DWP from nomis

May 2014 Vale = 0.8% South = 0.7%

Jan 2008 Vale = 0.5% South = 0.6%

Self employment and home working in rural areas

South Oxfordshire

Self employed Working at

home

Self employment and home working in rural areas

Vale of White Horse

Self employed Working at

home

Clusters of long distance commuting

Residents travelling 30km or more to work as a

percent of residents aged 16 and over in employment

and travelling to work (2011)

Summary – part 2

Signs of a healthy local economy

• +4,200 employee jobs added in South and Vale between 2009 and 2012

• Growth in South and Vale business enterprises

• % of working age job seeker allowance claimants almost at pre-recession levels

Rural areas include home workers AND long distance commuters

Questions?

FINDING OUT MORE..

• Source data can be downloaded from www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk and www.nomisweb.co.uk

• Visualisation tools available on ONS website www.ons.gov.uk/census

• Data for Oxfordshire and visualisation tools at insight.oxfordshire.gov.uk

• District Data Service including analysis of data for South Oxfordshire and Vale of White Horse www.oxford.gov.uk/districtdataservice

mmelling@oxford.gov.uk