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ClimatechangevulnerabilityassessmentfortheSouthernCaliforniaClimateAdaptationProject.CopyrightEcoAdapt2017.
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SouthernCaliforniaEndemicHabitatsClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessmentSummary
AnImportantNoteAboutthisDocument:Thisdocumentrepresentsaninitialevaluationofvulnerabilityforendemichabitatsbasedonexpertinputandexistinginformation.Specifically,theinformationpresentedbelowcompriseshabitatexpertvulnerabilityassessmentsurveyresultsandcomments,peer-reviewcommentsandrevisions,andrelevantreferencesfromtheliterature.Theaimofthisdocumentistoexpandunderstandingofhabitatvulnerabilitytochangingclimateconditions,andtoprovideafoundationfordevelopingappropriateadaptationresponses.
HabitatDescription12345Endemichabitatsfeaturespecializedanddistinctvegetativecommunitiesthatareadaptedtoharshanduniqueconditionsderived,inpart,fromparentsoilmaterial.1-5Endemichabitatsaretypicallylimitedindistribution,occupyingdistinctareaswithinthesouthernCaliforniastudyarea.1Endemichabitatsconsideredinthisassessmentinclude:serpentine,gabbro,carbonate,pebbleplains,andclaylenscommunities.
HabitatVulnerability
TherelativevulnerabilityofendemichabitatsinsouthernCaliforniawasevaluatedtobemoderatebyhabitatexpertsduetomoderatesensitivitytoclimateandnon-climatestressors,moderateexposuretoprojectedfutureclimatechanges,andmoderateadaptivecapacity.Shiftsinprecipitation,moistureavailability,andtemperaturemayaffectendemichabitatcomposition,survival,andvulnerabilitytonon-climaticstressors.Endemiccommunitieshavevariableresponsestofire,butincreasingfirefrequenciesareunlikelytobenefiteventhemostfire-adaptedcommunitiesduetoslowrecoveryfollowingdisturbance.Endemichabitatsfaceavarietyofnon-climaticstressorsthatreducehabitatresiliencebyincreasingfragmentationand/orbyexacerbatingclimate-drivenchanges;humanpopulationgrowthmayincreasetheseverity/extentofthesestressorsinthefuture.Uniquesoilrequirementslargelymoderateendemichabitatdistribution,speciescomposition,andsensitivitytoclimateandnon-climatestressors.Small,isolatedpopulations,specificsoilrequirements,limiteddispersalcapacity,andseverallandscapebarrierslimitendemichabitatdispersalandrecoverypotentialinthefaceofclimatechange,butspecializedvegetationenhanceshabitatresistance.Endemicsystemsprovideavarietyofecosystemservicesincludingbiodiversityandrecreation.
ModerateVulnerability
PhotobyCaliforniaDept.ofFishandWildlife(CC-BY-2.0)
ModerateConfidence
ClimatechangevulnerabilityassessmentfortheSouthernCaliforniaClimateAdaptationProject.CopyrightEcoAdapt2017.
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Sensitivity
Endemichabitatsaresensitivetoseveralclimatedrivers,includingdrought,precipitation,soilmoisture,andextremehightemperatureevents.Ingeneral,endemichabitatsareadaptedtoharshconditions(e.g.,lowmoistureandnutrientavailability)andarefairlyresilienttofluctuationsinprecipitationandtemperatureduetohistoricalexposure,althoughindividualspeciesresiliencevaries.2Inaddition,uniquesoilpropertiesalsocontrolendemicspeciescomposition,distribution,andsensitivitytoclimateandnon-climatedrivers.1,3-5Endemicsystemsaresensitivetoavarietyofnon-climatestressorsthatdestroy,fragment,and/ordegradehabitats,aswellasexacerbateclimatechangeimpacts.1,5HumanpopulationgrowthinsouthernCaliforniawilllikelyenhancemanyofthesenon-climatestressors,furtherincreasingrisktoendemiccommunitiesasdevelopmentapproachesnationalforestboundaries.
Habitatsensitivityfactorsandimpacts*
CLIMATICDRIVERSModerateSensitivityModerateConfidence
Precipitation&soilmoisture
Endemiccommunitiesarelargelyadaptedtowaterstressandunproductivesoils,2butshiftsinprecipitationorsoilmoisturemayresultin:• Alteredspeciescomposition,cover,richness,andfitness• Alteredvulnerabilitytonon-climatestressors(e.g.,invasivespeciesin
serpentinehabitats;6-9soildisturbanceinpebbleplains)4,56789Drought Droughtimpactsarevariabledependingondroughtlength,seedbank
persistence,dormancycues,phenologyandresilienceofpollinatorsandmycorrhizae,soilmicrobes,andotherfactors.Increaseddroughtmayresultin:• Increasedmortalityandreducedgerminationandrecruitmentforsome
habitats10-12101112• Alteredinvasivespeciespressure9andconiferandshrubencroachment
patternsExtremehightemperatureevents
Airtemperaturemayinfluenceplantsurvivalorcommunitycomposition.Increasedairtemperaturesmaycause:• Alteredcommunitycompositionorencroachmentofothervegetative
communities,4particularlyiftemperaturechangesdrivesnowpackshifts• Alteredplantsurvival;manyphysiologicalheattolerancesareunknown
Snowpack† Incarbonateandserpentinecommunities,snowpackprovidesinsulationandreduceswinddesiccation.13,14Inpebbleplainscommunities,snowpackprotectstheclay-soilmatrixandpromotesfrostheaveintherootzone,helpingpreventshrubandtreeencroachment.Decreasedsnowpackmaycause:• Higherexposuretowindandcoldtemperatures• Increasedvulnerabilitytotreeandshrubencroachment• Increasederosion
*Factorspresentedarethoserankedhighestbyhabitatexperts.AfulllistofevaluatedfactorscanbefoundintheEndemicsHabitatsClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessmentSynthesis.†Onlysomeendemichabitatsaresensitivetosnowpackdepth(i.e.,pebbleplains,serpentine,carbonate).
ModerateSensitivity HighConfidence
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DISTURBANCEREGIMESModerateSensitivityHighConfidenceWildfire Endemichabitatsvaryintheirsensitivitytowildfire:carbonatecommunitiesare
fairlyfire-intolerant,5serpentinespeciesareadaptedtoperiodicfire,3,5,15andgabbrocommunitiesdependonfireforregeneration.5Manycommunitiesareslowtorecoverfromfire.4,5Alteredfireregimescouldcause:• Shiftsinspeciescomposition,enhancedmortality,morefrequent
regenerationfailures,orpotentialtypeconversiontoothersystems4,5,15NON-CLIMATESTRESSORSModerateSensitivity&ExposureModerateConfidence
Serpentinecommunities
• Invasivespecies:atmosphericnitrogen(N)depositionreducesnaturalresiliencetoinvasion;6,16enhancedNdepositionandelevatedwateravailabilityincreaseinvasionsuccessovertime,whiledisturbanceincreasesshort-terminvasivesuccess7
• Off-roadvehicles:mayincreasetramplinganddisturbance17,18• Grazing,energyandmining:historicalstressors(lessprevalenttoday)5,8
Carbonatecommunities
• Energyproductionandmining:limestone,sand/gravel,andcalcium-carbonateminingmaydestroyorfragmenthabitat,alterlocalmicroclimates,causedirectmortalityorundesirableedgeeffects,andaffectplantphenologythroughlightpollution12
• Manyotherhumanactivitiesmayalterandfragmenthabitat,increasesoilcompactionanderosion,altersurface/soilhydrologyandaffectplantvigorandfitness1,5,12
Gabbrocommunities
• Miningandland-useconversion:maydegradeorextirpategabbrospecies1,4
Pebbleplainscommunities
• Recreation:maycausetrampling,uprooting,sedimentation,andsoilloss1,5• OHVandillegalvehicleuse:rutsaltersurfacehydrologyandcausesoil
compaction,removetheclaymatrix,destroyvegetation,andinvertseedbanks,5especiallywhensoilsaresaturated
• Roads:alternaturalsheetwaterflow,generatedustthatdisruptsphotosynthesisandreproduction,facilitateinvasivespeciesestablishment,5andprovideaccesspointsforunauthorizedvehicles
• Invasivespecies:alterecologicalfunctioning,1competeformoistureandnutrients,andincreasesurfaceorganics
• Firesuppression:salinewaterandpersonnelcamps/vehiclesharmplants1
Exposure‡
Underfutureclimateconditions,endemichabitatsarelikelytobeexposedtoprecipitationchangesandincreasedwildfire.Thescientificliteratureprojectsthatroughly66%ofendemic‡RelevantreferencesforregionalclimateprojectionscanbefoundintheSouthernCaliforniaClimateOverview(http://ecoadapt.org/programs/adaptation-consultations/socal).
ModerateExposure ModerateConfidence
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planttaxainCaliforniawilllikelyexperiencesignificantrangereductions(>80%)by2100.19Projectionsindicatethatendemicplantdiversitymayshifttowardmorecoastaland/ornorthernlocationsinCaliforniabytheendofthecentury,althoughsomespeciesmayexhibitsouthwardmovementastheyattempttocolonizethecoastalmountainsofsouthernCalifornia.19Inaddition,topographicalrefugiamayalsobepresentatthelocalscale.14Migrationtorefugiawillbelimitedbyspatialisolation,soilspecificity,limiteddispersalcapacity,andtheseverityandinteractionofvariousclimatechanges.2,14,19
Projectedclimateandclimate-drivenchangesforSouthernCaliforniaCLIMATICDRIVERS PROJECTEDCHANGE
Precipitation&snowpack
Variableannualprecipitationvolumeandtiming,withwetterwintersanddriersummers;reducedsnowpack(-42%)andearliersnowmeltbymid-century
Soilmoisture&drought
Increasedclimaticwaterdeficit;longerandmoreseveredroughtswithdroughtyearstwiceaslikelytooccur
Wildfire Increasedfiresize,frequency,andseverityAirtemperature&extremeheat
events
+2.5to+9°Cby2100;heatwaves,particularlyhumidnighttimeheatevents,willoccurmorefrequently,lastlonger,andfeaturehottertemperatures
AdaptiveCapacity§
Smallandisolatedpopulations,uniquesoilrequirements,limiteddispersalcapacity,andseverallandscapebarriersmayinhibittheabilityofendemichabitatstotrackshiftsinclimate.Althoughendemicvegetationisadaptedtofairlyharshconditions,thesespeciesaretypicallyslowtorecoverfromdisturbance.Endemichabitatsharborhighbiodiversity,butalsomanythreatenedandendangeredspecies,whichmaybemoresensitivetoclimatechangeduetolimiteddistribution.1,2,5,19,20Amajorityofserpentine,carbonate,andpebbleplainshabitatsoccuronnationalforestland,whilethemajorityofgabbrooutcropsoccuronnon-federalland.1
Habitatadaptivecapacityfactorsandcharacteristics**FACTORS HABITATCHARACTERISTICSHabitatextent,integrity,&continuity
Low-Moderate
ModerateConfidence
-Smallanddisjunctpopulations1-5arevulnerabletoextirpation19,20
-Limiteddispersaldistances(average10-100m;rare>1km),2,11makeitunlikelythatendemicspecieswillkeeppacewithclimatechange19
-Manyendemicshavelowproductivity,recoverslowlyfrom
§Pleasenotethatthecolorschemeforadaptivecapacityhasbeeninverted,asthosefactorsreceivingarankof“High”enhanceadaptivecapacitywhilethosefactorsreceivingarankof“Low”undermineadaptivecapacity.**Characteristicswithagreenplussigncontributepositivelytohabitatadaptivecapacity,whilecharacteristicswitharedminussigncontributenegativelytohabitatadaptivecapacity.
ModerateAdaptiveCapacity HighConfidence
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FACTORS HABITATCHARACTERISTICSdisturbance,andareoutcompetedonallbutthemostuniqueandharshsoiltypes1,4,5
Landscapepermeability
Moderate
ModerateConfidence
-Thereareseveralbarrierstoendemichabitat/speciesdispersal,includingenergyproductionandmining,transportationcorridors,land-useconversion,grazing,andgeologicfeatures
-Dispersalisalsolimitedbyspecificsoilrequirements2
Resistance&recovery
Low-Moderate
ModerateConfidence
+Vegetationisadaptedtouniqueandharshconditions-Recoveryisslowandlimited
Habitatdiversity
Moderate-High
ModerateConfidence
+/-Collectivediversityamongstallendemichabitatsishigh;diversitywithinagivenendemicassociationislower
+Highendemism;harbormanythreatenedandendangeredplantandanimalspecies21
Managementpotential
Low-Moderate
HighConfidence
+Moderatesocietalvalue:valuedforrecreationalopportunities,scenicquality,biodiversity,habitatprovisioning,andendemism
+Endemichabitatsprovideavarietyofecosystemservices:biodiversity,watersupply/quality/sedimenttransport,recreation,carbonsequestration,nitrogenretention,airquality,publichealth,fireregimecontrols,andfloodanderosionprotection
-Somehabitatsvaluedforeconomicpotential(e.g.,mining),whichmaythreatenhabitatpersistence
RecommendedCitationReynier,W.A.,L.E.Hilberg,andJ.M.Kershner.2017.SouthernCaliforniaEndemicHabitats:ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessmentSummary.Version1.0.EcoAdapt,BainbridgeIsland,WA.
ThisdocumentisavailableonlineattheEcoAdaptwebsite(http://ecoadapt.org/programs/adaptation-consultations/socal).
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