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Southern Nevada Market Update
Southern NevadaMarket Update
Southern Nevada Market Update
Local EconomicFundamentals
Southern Nevada Market Update
Resident Population Growth2017 to 2018Rank State Annual Growth
1 Nevada +2.09%2 Idaho +2.05%3 Utah +1.87%4 Arizona +1.74%5 Florida +1.54%6 Washington +1.48%7 Colorado +1.42%8 Texas +1.34%9 South Carolina +1.25%10 North Carolina +1.10%
U.S. Average +0.62%
#1
Source: U.S. Census Bureau HigherLower
Southern Nevada Market Update
Nevada Population and Growth
3.0
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Millio
ns
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
2.1%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Southern Nevada Market Update
Clark County Population
2.2 M
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
Millio
ns
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Southern Nevada Market Update
Clark County Population Growth
2.2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Southern Nevada Market Update
Population GrowthLargest 30 MSAs
2.2%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Southern Nevada Market Update
+2.2% (net)+47,355 Residents
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Southern Nevada Market Update
+130 Per Day+5.4 Per Hour
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Southern Nevada Market Update
State Surrenders Share
California 27,625 36.2%
Florida 4,619 6.1%
Texas 3,574 4.7%
Arizona 3,409 4.5%
Illinois 2,905 3.8%
Washington 2,838 3.7%
Hawaii 2,531 3.3%
Colorado 2,380 3.1%
Utah 2,198 2.9%
New York 2,025 2.7%
Driver’s License SurrendersTo Nevada By State
Note: Based on driver’s license surrenders from the DMV for 2018.
20,000 or more3,000 to 19,999
1,900 to 2,999700 to 1,899
Under 700Source: UNLV CBER
Southern Nevada Market Update
Fastest Job Growth in the NationRank State Annual Growth
1 Nevada +3.8%2 Arizona +3.3%3 Washington +3.2%4 Utah +3.1%5 Texas +3.1%6 Wyoming +2.9%7 Colorado +2.8%8 Florida +2.7%9 Georgia +2.6%10 New Hampshire +2.6%
U.S. Average +1.8%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (December 2018 vs. December 2017)
#1 Nevada
Southern Nevada Market Update
Employment GrowthLargest 30 MSAs
3.4%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (December 2018 vs. December 2017)
Southern Nevada Market Update
EmploymentLas Vegas MSA
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Thou
sand
s Present: 1,026,900
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Southern Nevada Market Update
Employment GrowthLas Vegas MSA | Year-over-Year
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
90 Consecutive Months of Positive Growth
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Southern Nevada Market Update
Employment GrowthLas Vegas MSA | Last 12 Months
00
8001,000
1,4001,800
4,9004,900
5,5005,700
7,900
InformationMining and Logging
Trade, Transportation, and UtilitiesManufacturing
Financial ActivitiesOther Services
Education and Health ServicesProfessional and Business Services
ConstructionGovernment
Leisure and Hospitality
Net Job Growth: +33,900
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (December 2018 vs. December 2017)
Southern Nevada Market Update
Unemployment Rate
-2%0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Variance Las Vegas MSA United States
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Southern Nevada Market Update
Fastest Growing Personal Income
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (Q2 2018 vs. Q3 2018)
#1 Nevada
Rank StateQuarterly
GrowthAnnualized
Growth1 Nevada +1.52% +6.21%2 Washington +1.51% +6.16%3 Arizona +1.33% +5.42%4 Colorado +1.29% +5.27%5 New Hampshire +1.25% +5.12%6 Oregon +1.25% +5.10%7 Utah +1.17% +4.75%8 Pennsylvania +1.16% +4.71%9 Texas +1.14% +4.65%10 North Dakota +1.14% +4.63%
Southern Nevada Market Update
NotableInvestments
Southern Nevada Market Update
Southern Nevada Market Update
Project Cost Status Est. Completion DateResorts World Las Vegas $7,000,000,000 Under Construction 2021 (Built in Phases)The Drew $3,000,000,000 Planned 2022Jackie Robinson Arena and Hotel Project $2,700,000,000 Planned Spring 2020Las Vegas Stadium (65,000 Seats) $1,800,000,000 Under Construction Jul-20Las Vegas Convention Center Expansion $1,400,000,000 Under Construction Dec-20 (Built in Phases)Union Village $1,200,000,000 Under Construction 2025 (Built in Phases)Henderson West $950,000,000 Planned Q4 2028Project Neon $900,000,000 Under Construction Summer 2019Vegas Extreme Park (The Edge) $800,000,000 Planned TBDPalms Casino Resort Renovation $690,000,000 Under Construction Q4 2019Google Data Center $600,000,000 Planned Dec-20Caesars FORUM Conference Center $375,000,000 Under Construction Spring 2020UNLV Medical School Building $230,000,000 Planned Late 2021I-15 and Tropicana Interchange Reconstruction $200,000,000 Planned 2024Hard Rock Hotel Rebrand and Renovations $200,000,000 Planned Fall 2020Clark County Park Upgrades $150,000,000 Planned TBDLas Vegas Ballpark $150,000,000 Under Construction Mar-19Stratosphere Renovation (The STRAT) $140,000,000 Under Construction 2021MGM Grand Conference Center Expansion $130,000,000 Under Construction Early 2019Las Vegas Monorail Extension to Mandalay Bay $110,000,000 Planned 2020Elysian at the Hughes Center $100,000,000 Under Construction Fall 2020SLS Las Vegas Renovation $100,000,000 Under Construction 2020Kind Heaven $100,000,000 Planned August 2019Centennial Hills Hospital Expansion $95,000,000 Planned DNDCSN Charleston, Henderson, and North Las Vegas Campuses Student Union $80,000,000 Under Construction Fall 2019U.S. 95 Widening $78,000,000 Under Construction Fall 2019Downtown Las Vegas Expo Center $76,000,000 Under Construction June 2020
Southern Nevada Market Update
Project Cost Status Est. Completion DateRaiders Corporate Headquarters and Practice Facility $75,000,000 Under Construction July 2020New 215 Interchanges at Losee, Pecos, and Lamb $70,000,000 Under Construction April 2020Luxury Apartments at Twain/Dean Martin $65,000,000 Under Construction April 2020Nevada State College Education Building $62,000,000 Planned DNDSilverton Village $60,000,000 Under Construction 2019New Las Vegas Municipal Courthouse $59,300,000 Planned January 2021Blue Diamond Widening $58,560,000 Under Construction DNDHampton Inn & Suites/Home2Suites $55,000,000 Planned April 2020The Venetian Resort Hotel Casino Pool Redesign $50,000,000 Under Construction May 2019Downtown Henderson $50,000,000 Under Construction 2021CIM Downtown Grand Third Tower $45,000,000 Under Construction 2020Water Pipeline to Apex Industrial Park $42,000,000 Under Construction Late 2020South Point Hotel Casino & Spa Renovation $40,000,000 Under Construction September 2020UNLV Howard R. Hughes College of Engineering Expansion $35,000,000 Planned TBDNew Smith Center Parking Garages $33,000,000 Under Construction September 2019Fremont Street Experience Canopy and Mall Reconstruction $33,000,000 Planned May 2019Fertitta Football Complex $31,000,000 Under Construction Spring 2019UNLV Harry Reid Research and Technology Park Bldg. 3 $30,000,000 Under Construction Spring 2019Sahara and Las Vegas Blvd Pedestrian Bridge $27,500,000 Planned January 2024Southern Hills Hospital Behavioral Health Center $26,000,000 Under Construction 2019UNLV University Gateway Development Phase II $18,000,000 Under Construction Q2 2019Starwood Hotel (near Las Vegas Motor Speedway) $18,000,000 Planned 2019Las Vegas Strip Pedestrian Bridge $16,900,000 Under Construction Jul-19Mountain's Edge Sports Complex $16,000,000 Under Construction Early 2019Residence Inn - St. Rose $16,000,000 Under Construction April 2019McCarran Airport Infrastructure Improvements $8,000,000 Planned DNDTreehouse Las Vegas $7,000,000 Planned Mar-19
Southern Nevada Market Update
Project Cost Status Est. Completion DateSkyline Hotel & Casino Expansion $7,000,000 Under Construction Spring 2020North Las Vegas Roadway Improvements $3,570,000 Planned DNDBoulder Highway Upgrade Project $1,500,000 Under Construction Summer 2019UNLV New Lee Business School Building DND Planned DNDAREA15 DND Under Construction Dec-19Circa Resort and Casino DND Planned DecemberHenderson Executive Airport Expansion DND Under Construction Summer 2019Northwest Las Vegas Fairfield Inn DND Under Construction DNDWynn Convention Center DND Under Construction Mar-20Wynn West DND Planned TBDMSG Sphere Las Vegas DND Under Construction Late 2020Home2 Suites - Dean Martin DND Under Construction January 2019Fairfield Inn & Suites Airport South DND Under Construction April 2019TownPlace Suites Airport South DND Under Construction May 2019Paris Las Vegas Room Renovation DND Under Construction 2019Showcase Mall Expansion DND Under Construction 2019SpringHill Suites Marriott DND Planned April 2021Residence Inn - Paradise DND Planned June 2023Aloft Hotel DND Planned DNDThe Element Hotel by Westin DND Planned DNDMardi Gras Hotel and Casino Redevelopment DND Planned 2023Monorail Station at MSG Sphere Las Vegas DND Planned 2020Hotel Apache at Binions DND Under Construction Summer 2019Boyd Gaming Las Vegas Headquarters DND Planned DNDHoward Hughes Ballpark Hotel DND Planned DNDTotal $24.4 Billion
Southern Nevada Market Update
HousingAffordability
Southern Nevada Market Update
Fastest House Price AppreciationHouse Price Index Growth
Rank State Annual Growth
1 Nevada +15.0%2 Idaho +13.0%3 Utah +10.4%4 Washington +9.9%5 Colorado +9.8%6 Florida +9.2%7 Georgia +8.9%8 Arizona +8.8%9 California +8.6%10 Tennessee +7.7%
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (Q3 2017 vs. Q3 2018)
#1 Nevada
Southern Nevada Market Update
House Price Index GrowthLargest 30 MSAs
18.1%
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%18%20%
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (Q3 2017 vs. Q3 2018)
Southern Nevada Market Update
Single Family Median Home PriceLargest 30 MSAs
$294,600
$0$100,000$200,000$300,000$400,000$500,000$600,000$700,000$800,000$900,000
$1,000,000
N/A
N/A
Source: National Association of Realtors (Q3 2018)
Southern Nevada Market Update
Housing Opportunity IndexLas Vegas MSA
13.0
88.7
47.6
0102030405060708090
100
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18Source: National Association of Homebuilders
Southern Nevada Market Update
Ratio of Home Price-to-Income
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Incomes Outstripped Home Prices
Home Prices Outstripped Incomes
Source: SalesTraq and Applied Analysis
Southern Nevada Market Update
Growth in Values Since 2005In Western States
9%0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
NevadaCalifornia
ArizonaHawaii
New MexicoAlaska
WyomingOregon
ColoradoWashington
IdahoUtah
Montana
Source: National Association of Realtors (ACS and FHFA)
Southern Nevada Market Update
House Price IndexLas Vegas MSA
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18Source: Federal Housing Financing Agency (1995=100)
Southern Nevada Market Update
U.S. Mortgage Interest RatesFixed-Rate
4.1%
4.6%
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9% 15-Year 30-Year
Source: Freddie Mac
Southern Nevada Market Update
Average Apartment RentsLas Vegas Valley
$1,097
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18Source: REIS
Southern Nevada Market Update
Las Vegas Owner vs. Renter Comparative Analysis Monthly Average Rents vs. Estimated Cost of Ownership
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
$2,200Renter Owner
Southern Nevada Market Update
New Home MarketSupply-Demand
Southern Nevada Market Update
38,705
3,793
9,944
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18
New Home ClosingsLas Vegas Area
Source: SalesTraq
13.8%
-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%
0%10%20%30%40%50%
00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18
Southern Nevada Market Update
$410,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
New Home Median Closing PriceLas Vegas Area
Source: SalesTraq
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Southern Nevada Market Update
New Home Market ShareAs a Percentage of Total Home Sales
17.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18Source: SalesTraq
Southern Nevada Market Update
Actively Selling Subdivisions
207
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18Source: SalesTraq
Southern Nevada Market Update
6
87
8
1520
0
50
100
150
200
250
'13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Single Family Condo/Townhouse
Actively Selling SubdivisionsBy Product Type
Source: SalesTraq (Excludes High- and Mid-Rises Built Prior to Displayed Periods)
3.4% 3.4%
6.7%
9.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
'15 '16 '17 '18
Condo/Townhouse Share of Product Offerings
Southern Nevada Market Update
Employment-Growth-to-Permit Ratio (E/P)
2.84
1.95
-18-16-14-12-10-8-6-4-20246
Las Vegas United States
Source: United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, United States Census Bureau and Applied Analysis
Southern Nevada Market Update
Resale Home MarketSupply-Demand
Southern Nevada Market Update
58,522
47,875
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18
Resale Home ClosingsLas Vegas Area
Source: SalesTraq
-2.8%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18
Southern Nevada Market Update
$260,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Resale Home Median Closing PriceLas Vegas Area
Source: SalesTraq
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Southern Nevada Market Update
Resale Price AppreciationLas Vegas
22.3% or Greater16.7% - 22.2%13.2% - 16.6%0.1% - 13.1%
Data Not Available Source: SalesTraq
Less than 0.0%
Source: SalesTraq
Southern Nevada Market Update
Positive95.3%
Under Water4.7%
Q3 2018
Positive74.6%
Under Water25.4%
Q3 2014
Positive30.4%
Under Water69.6%
Q3 2010
Nevada Homeowner’s Equity
Source: CoreLogic
Southern Nevada Market Update
Positive95.3%
Under Water4.7%
Nevada
Homeowner’s Equity
Source: CoreLogic
Positive95.9%
Under Water4.1%
United States
Southern Nevada Market Update
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Notices of Breach and Default
Clark County, NV
Notices of Trustee Sale
Clark County, NV
Trustee Deeds (Foreclosures)Clark County, NV
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '180
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Source: Clark County Assessor's Office
Southern Nevada Market Update
Mortgage Defaults in NevadaMortgages Past Due or in Foreclosure
134,159
18,424
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18Source: Mortgage Banker’s Association, National Delinquency Survey
Southern Nevada Market Update
Mix of Resale ClosingsDistressed Sales (Short, Auction and REO)
27.2%38.1%
63.0%
76.5%83.9% 87.7%
92.8% 96.0%
72.8%61.9%
37.0%
23.5%16.1% 12.3% 7.2%
4.0%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18Source: Applied Analysis/SalesTraq
Southern Nevada Market Update
Number of Bank-Owned Homes
668 = 5.1 Days
Source: Applied Analysis/SalesTraq
Southern Nevada Market Update
Effective Months of AvailabilityMultiple Listing Service
3.3
'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
0123456789
10United States: 4.2 Months
Southern Nevada: 3.3 Months
Source: MLS/SalesTraq
Southern Nevada Market Update
Effective Months of AvailabilityBy Price Segment
Less than $100,000$100,000 - $149,999$150,000 - $199,999$200,000 - $249,999$250,000 - $299,999$300,000 - $349,999$350,000 - $399,999$400,000 - $449,999$450,000 - $499,999$500,000 - $999,999$1,000,000 and Over
2.5 Months
4.3 Months
Source: MLS/SalesTraq
Southern Nevada Market Update
Effective Months of
Availability
Source: MLS/SalesTraq
Southern Nevada Market Update
Median Days on the Market
Less Than 3131 to 4545 to 6061 to 7576 to 165
46 DaysU.S. Average Median Days on the Market
Source: SalesTraq, GLVAR/MLS, NAR
Southern Nevada Market Update
Median Days on the MarketLas Vegas Area Single Family Market
Source: SalesTraq, GLVAR/MLS
26.0
'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60December 2018: 26 DaysDecember 2017: 19 Days
Southern Nevada Market Update
Southern NevadaMarket Update