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SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
Arctic Ozone Arctic Ozone Possible Reduction StrategiesPossible Reduction Strategies
What can be done given uncertanties in the What can be done given uncertanties in the
(Arctic) O(Arctic) O33 budget and climate change? budget and climate change?
Kathy LawKathy Law Service d’Aéronomie/IPSL-UPMC-CNRSService d’Aéronomie/IPSL-UPMC-CNRS
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
OutlineOutline OO33 radiative forcing - IR altitude sensitivity radiative forcing - IR altitude sensitivity
OO33 budget (Arctic & NH) - uncertainties - budget (Arctic & NH) - uncertainties - photochemical lifetime vs transport timescalesphotochemical lifetime vs transport timescales
Which emissions? Which emissions? RegionsRegions NOx, CO/VOCs or CH4?NOx, CO/VOCs or CH4?
Response in a changing climate (O3, CH4)Response in a changing climate (O3, CH4)
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
OO33 radiative radiative forcingforcing
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Max effect on Ts from IR heating between 4 - 22 km
Surface ∆O3 lessimportant
From Forster & Shine, 1997
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
Uncertainties in OUncertainties in O33 RF: RF: Results from IPCC models - GHGs plus strat. O3 (Gauss et al., 2006)Results from IPCC models - GHGs plus strat. O3 (Gauss et al., 2006) Strat. vs trop. model differences (1850 to 2000)Strat. vs trop. model differences (1850 to 2000)
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T=trop, S=strat.
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
Arctic Ozone BudgetArctic Ozone Budget
North PoleSTE
UT Transport
LT transport Dry Deposition
Flux outFlux in
Residence Time
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
Arctic OArctic O33 Budget (TOPSE) Budget (TOPSE)
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Emmons et al., 2003
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
Transport Pathways to ArcticTransport Pathways to Arctic
Winter: anthrop. Europe (LT), Asia? (UT)
Summer: forest fires (Siberia, Alaska) anthrop. (Asia, N. America)
AMAP, 2006
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
Age of Arctic AirAge of Arctic Air
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Stohl, 2006
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
Ozone Photochemical Lifetime (days)Ozone Photochemical Lifetime (days)
Lifetime - April - Surface
Lifetime - April - 500hPa Lifetime - July - 500hPa
Lifetime - July - Surface
MOZART model results, courtesy Claire Granier (CNRS), NCAR
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
Northern Hemisphere ONorthern Hemisphere O33 Budget Budget
North Pole
Brewer-Dobson/STELocal heating from local O3
30N
Dry Deposition
Transport of heat ormid-lat O3 to Arctic
30N
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
Key is UT OKey is UT O33 Budget Budget
North Pole
Brewer-Dobson/STE
Local heating from local O3?
30N
Dry Deposition
Transport of heat ormid-lat O3 to Arctic
30N
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
Tropospheric OTropospheric O33 - where is the ∆O - where is the ∆O33??
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
Where is there a constant source of ∆O3? Where is there a constant source of ∆O3? Mid-lat anthrop. plumes transported into UTMid-lat anthrop. plumes transported into UT
•Lagrangian study using NARE-ACSOE data (Real et al., 2007)•Photochemical trajectory model initialised with obs upwind•Determine O3 change due to chemistry, mixing etc.
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
Intercontinental Transport Of Pollutants
Lagrangian match analysis (Methven et al.,2006), FF analysis (Real et al., 2007)
CO ↓ : 200 ppbv
O3 ↑ : 20 ppbv
DC8 – 18 July
B146 – 20 July
Falcon – 22/23 July
Where is there a constant source of ∆O3? Where is there a constant source of ∆O3? Boreal Forest Fire plumes (ICARTT summer 2004)Boreal Forest Fire plumes (ICARTT summer 2004)
IGAC Lagrangian 2K4 - ITOP campaign, July 2004
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
Lagrangian photochemical model: chemistry + aerosols + dilution (Real et al., 2007)
NPO3 depends on altitude(PAN decomp. vs H2O) plus mixing & residence time of plumes in UT
OHP Falcon MozaicJungfraujoch
Chemistry only(inc. aerosols)
Chemistry + mixing
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
Forest Fire Plume - Trace Gas Correlation Evolution
CO (ppbv) CO (ppbv)
CO (ppbv)
O3
(p
pb
v)
O3
(p
pb
v)
O3
(p
pb
v)
DC8 - 18 July 2004 BAe-146 - 20 July 2004
Falcon – 22 et 23 July 2004
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
Forest Fire Plume Correlation Evolution - evaluation of global models - MOCAGE (Bousserez et al., 2007) and GEOSCHEM (courtesy Isabelle Bey)
140
050
350
100
0 22560
MOCAGE
Observations
GEOS-CHEM75
45100 150
80
18030
90
MOCAGEO3 too high on 18 July
GEOSCHEMCO (PAN) too low on 18 July
O3 too low on 23 July
0 600
200
CO (ppb)
CO (ppb)
O3
(p
pb
v)O
3 (
pp
bv)
DC8 18 July
DF20 23 July
DC8 18 July
45
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
Forest Fire Plume Transport to ArcticForest Fire Plume Transport to Arctic(ICARTT 2004)(ICARTT 2004)
Barrow
Alert
80°N
90°N
Stohl, 2006
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
FF plume transport to the Arctic FF plume transport to the Arctic (Lacresson, (Lacresson, Real, Law, 2007)Real, Law, 2007)
0
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
2 0 0 2 0 2 2 0 4 2 0 6 2 0 8 2 1 0 2 1 2 2 1 4 2 1 6 2 1 8
J o u r s
Valeurs moyennes d'O3
0
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
1 9 5 2 0 0 2 0 5 2 1 0 2 1 5 2 2 0 2 2 5 2 3 0 2 3 5
J o u r s
Valeurs moyennes d'Ozone
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Ny-Alesund
Summit
Ozone - Ny-Alesund (Rao et al, 2004)
8km
6km
2km
Summit @ 3km2004
Ny-Alesundsurface: high O3 episode in July 2004
Ozone Data (Helmig et al, 2007)
Broad summer Max in FT
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07 AMAP, 2006
So which regional emissions to reduce?So which regional emissions to reduce?
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
Uncertainties in Regional EmissionsUncertainties in Regional EmissionsNOx emissions
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Eur Rus Inde Chine ASE+OC AFR+ME Amer N Amer S
NOx emissions (Tg N/yr)
GICC RETRO MOZART
CO
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Eur Rus Inde Chine ASE+OC AFR+ME Amer N Amer S
CO Emissions (Tg CO/yr)
GICC RETRO MOZARTCourtesy Claire Granier et al.
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
Decadal emissions - up to date info is Decadal emissions - up to date info is needed on 1990 to presentneeded on 1990 to present
SO2 emission per large region
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Eur Rus Inde Chine ASE+OC AFR+ME Amer_N Amer_S
SO2 emission
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
BC Emissions per large region
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2
Eur Rus Inde Chine ASE+OC AFR+ME Amer_N Amer_S
BC Emission
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Courtesy Claire Granier, Cathy Liousse et al.
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
Regional ORegional O33 changes from reduced emissions (1) changes from reduced emissions (1)
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Bernsten et al., 2006
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
Regional ORegional O33 changes from reduced emissions (2) changes from reduced emissions (2)
Dentener et al., 2005
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SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
OO33 RF from BAU (upper) & reduced emissions RF from BAU (upper) & reduced emissions (lower) (lower)
Dentener et al., 2005
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SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
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Stohl, 2006 - Anthrop BC particle sources 30 days previouslyAir spending at least 5 days in Arctic in winter (left) & summer (right)
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Do the same for O3 precursors with some kind of RF clockrelated to residence time in the UT
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
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Stohl, 2006 - BC particle sources 30 days previouslyAir spending at least 5 days in Arctic in summer - forest fires (left) & anthrop (right)
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SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
Which Emissions - Which Emissions - CH4CH4, NOx, VOC or CO?, NOx, VOC or CO?
20% emission reductions in CH4, NOx CO & VOCs 20% emission reductions in CH4, NOx CO & VOCs (West, Fiore, et al 2007)(West, Fiore, et al 2007)
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SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
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CHCH44 emission scenarios (Tg yr-1) - Dentener et al. , 2005 emission scenarios (Tg yr-1) - Dentener et al. , 2005
Net difference BAU - MRF∆CH4ems = 100 Tg (1990 to 2030)
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
How to reduce CH4?How to reduce CH4?
Law & Nisbet, 1996
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Reduction in Gas CH4 by 15 Tg over 3 years led to4 ppbv yr-1 decrease @ 66N
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
But is CHBut is CH44 already going down? already going down?… and CO… and CO22 going up faster than predicted?? going up faster than predicted??
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Hansen et al.,2007
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
Stratospheric OStratospheric O33 recovery recovery
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Eyring et al., 2007
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
Climate ChangeClimate Change
Possible Impacts on OPossible Impacts on O33 Budget Budget
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
Climate change effects on strat. & trop. O3Climate change effects on strat. & trop. O3
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Gauss et al., 2006
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
Sensitivity of POSensitivity of PO33 to Temperature to Temperature(PAN decomposition)(PAN decomposition)
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Real et al., 2007
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
More local anthropogenic emissions?More local anthropogenic emissions?• Gas/oil extraction - CHGas/oil extraction - CH44, VOCs (alkanes), BC?, VOCs (alkanes), BC?• Smelters (copper) - SOx, NOx, aerosolSmelters (copper) - SOx, NOx, aerosol• Ships - NOx, aerosolsShips - NOx, aerosols
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
Loss of summer sea-iceLoss of summer sea-ice more O more O3 3 (ships), less halogens (not (ships), less halogens (not clear), more DMS, etcclear), more DMS, etc
2040
Granier et al, 2006
Holland et al, 2006Are the models right??!!
SPAC meeting, NILU, 5-7 Nov '07
RecommendationsRecommendations Reduce CHReduce CH44 ( (but need to understand but need to understand current trends and climate sensitivitycurrent trends and climate sensitivity) - ) - plus COplus CO22 also of course also of course
Take into account planned OTake into account planned O33 precursor precursor
emission reductions (emission reductions (CLRTAPCLRTAP) & post-) & post-KyotoKyoto
OO33 budget - budget - important where Oimportant where O33 is is formedformed((smoking gun - boreal forest fires?)smoking gun - boreal forest fires?)