SPAIN’S EMISSION PROJECTIONS (SEP) PROJECT

ESCUELA TÉCNICA SUPERIORDE INGENIEROSINDUSTRIALES

UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICADE MADRID

DEPARTAMENTO DE INGENIERIA QUÍMICA INDUSTRIAL Y DEL MEDIO AMBIENTE

SPAIN’S EMISSION PROJECTIONS(SEP) PROJECT

WORK UNDER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE SPANISH MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT AND THE TECHNICAL

UNIVERSITY OF MADRID (UPM)

Geneve, 13th December 2006

MINISTERIO DE MEDIO AMBIENTE. DIRECCIÓN GENERAL DE CALIDAD Y

EVALUACIÓN AMBIENTAL

Dr. Julio [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

13th December 2006. 2EMEP Executive Body Spain’s Emission Projections. UPM.

1.1. Aim of the project

1.2. Activities and pollutants considered

1.4. Projection methodology

1.5. EmiPro

1.6. Updating system

2.1. Ex-post evaluation

2.2. RAINS comparison

2.3. Achievement of NOx Protocol

2.4. Policies and Measures considered

2.5. Possible causes for accomplishment delay

3. CONCLUSIONS

OUTLINE 1 - METHODOLOGY

2 - RESULTS


• To develop a consistent methodology to evaluate Spain’s Emission Projections• To obtain the emission projections for the period 2001 – 2020

Objectives

Critical aspects

- A tool for decision making process

- Projection vs. Prediction

- Activity projection vs. sectoral prospective

- Integration of sectoral studies and activity projections

- Full consistency with the National Atmospheric Emission Inventory (NEI)

- Basis for national AQ modelling

1.1.- Aim of the project


Every activity under NEI using SNAP-97 nomenclature

1.2.- Activities

SNAP Description Number of SL3

1 Combustion in energy and transformation industries 17

2 Non-industrial combustion plants 6

3 Combustion in manufacturing industry 30

4 Production processes 62

5Extraction and distribution of fossil fuels and geothermal energy

14

6 Solvent and other product use 42

7 Road transport 15

8 Other mobile sources and machinery 10

9 Waste treatment and disposal 14

10 Agriculture 37

11 Other sources and sinks 44

TOTAL 291


Geneva Convention

1.3.- Pollutants

Sulphur oxides (SO2+SO3), measured as mass of SO2

Nitrogen oxides (NO+NO2), measured as mass of NO2

Ammonia (NH3)

Volatile organic compounds (except methane) (NMVOC)

Carbon monoxide (CO)

Particulate Matter (as TSP, PM10 and PM2,5)

Heavy metals: lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd) and mercury (Hg)

Kyoto Protocol

Carbon dioxide (CO2)

Methane (CH4)

Nitrous oxide (N2O)

Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)

Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)

As mass of each individual compound

In CO2 equivalent weighted according to

its global warming potential


1.4.- Methodology

- The projections are developed under EEA and US EPA framework

- The usual projection level is national (SNAP activity) and in annual

basis.

- Projections are specifically calculated for each pollutant included in

the activities considered.

- Projections are associated to scenarios:

Starting considerations:

- Technological

- Socioeconomic

- Statistical

- Legislative

Hypothesis:

- Activity rates

- Emission factors

- Emission trends

= SCENARIO

- Macroeconomic variables are exogenous to the model


Scenarios

• Business as usual: statistical methods are used to provide future emissions, activity rates and/or emission factors. The only information used are past data without taking into account possible effect of measures. It is a “reference” scenario and it has physical constrains. Equivalent to “without measures”.

• Base: it includes every plan, policy or measure officially adopted that has any effect in atmospheric emissions. Equivalent to “with measures”.

• Target: it incorporates additional measures aimed at achieving the targets included in both National Emissions Ceilings Directive and Kyoto Protocol. Equivalent to “with additional measures”.


SCENARIOS

Base

BAU

SCENARIOS

Base

BAU

Emission data (Inventory)

Socioeconomic data

Sectoral studies

Legislation

Technological aspects

Basic information

- Activity Rate trend (A)

- Emission factor trend (EF)

- Emission trend (E)

- Control Factor (CF) and Growth Factor (G)

First Hypotheses

Method for calculation

n

kkjjaiji CFtEFAE

1,,,

n

kkjjaiaji CFgEGE

1,,,

Evaluated

emissions

Belowthreshold?Results

Definition of a T

arget scenario

YES NOCONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

CLRTAPKyoto Protocol

NEC

SCENARIO

Target

SCENARIO

Target

Target Hypotheses

- Activity Rate (A)

- Emission factor (EF)

- Emission (E)

- Control & Growth Factors (CF & GF)


Integration criteria

- Development of ‘macroscenarios’ for coherence assurance

Projection estimation

AR = activity rateConsistency

criteria

Relationships, implications

Group of related activities

SNAP 1

SNAP 2

SNAP ...

AR 1AR 2

Hypothesis homogenization

Proj 1

Proj 2

Proj ...

Macroscenario

Σ Proj

- Once the relationship mapping has been clearly identified, it is only a

matter of introducing consistency conditions into the hypothesis made

under each scenario for a particular activity rate


1.5.- EmiPro

- EmiPro (Emission Projections) is a software tool specifically developed

to handle all the data and procedures involved in the SEP project.

Last non-Beta version,currently v4.0

- Start screen -


- Generally, projections are made on national basis

But, the setting of thresholds derived from CLRTAP and NEC Directive’s

commitments must be done taking into account only a subset of the total

national emissions

Solution:

- Implementation of a parallel database system inside EmiPro

corresponding to the three different geographic and pollutant scopes.

None of them stores NUTS-3 level information:

Design issues


EMEP-Base:

- SNAP 11 (nature) emissions are excluded

- NMVOC from SNAP 10 (agriculture) are excluded

- Canary Islands, Ceuta and Melilla are not included

- Domestic airport traffic (LTO cycles<1000m) and domestic cruise traffic (h > 1000 m) emissions are excluded

- International airport traffic (LTO cycles<1000m) and international cruise traffic (h > 1000 m) emissions are included

Results

CORINAIR DB2004

General:

- National scope

- All SEP’s project pollutants

EMEP-BaseGeneral

SEP (1990-2000)

EMEPGeneral

EmiPro (1990-2020)

Activity-rate historical datasets analysis and

geographical disaggregation criteria

- Parallel projection scheme and information stored in each database


- Storage and recovery of past (history) emissions

Main functionalities

- Generation of projections from history data and algorithm factors

- Storage and recovery of projected emissions

- Reports generation


Quality Assurance/Quality Check

Main functionalities

Macroscenariocalculation report:

projections included

Emission projection atmacroscenario level

Time frameselecction

Pollutantselection

Switchbetween

graphical -tabular views

Macroscenariocalculation report:

projections included

Emission projection atmacroscenario level

Time frameselecction

Pollutantselection

Switchbetween

graphical -tabular views


1.6.- Updating system

Dic

Nov

Oct

Sep

Ago

Jul

Jun

May

Abr

Mar

Feb

Ene

Dic

Nov

Oct

Sep

Ago

Jul

Jun

May

Abr

Mar

Feb

Ene

Dic

Nov

Oct

Sep

Ago

Jul

Jun

May

Abr

Mar

Feb

Ene

Dic

Nov

Oct

Sep

Ago

Jul

Jun

May

Abr

Mar

Feb

Ene

Updated NEI (series 1990-year i-2)

year i

year i+1

Projections 2001-2020 (NEI series 1990-year i-3)

Publication of new methodology (series 1990-year i-2)

Projection update (NEI series 1990-year i-2)

Inclusion of new policies and measures

Inclusion of new policies and measures

Updated NEI (series 1990-year i-1)

9-month delay


Conclusions from updating system

Other updates

- It is possible to obtain consistent emission projections 9 months after

NEI publication

- New policies and measures are included into emission projections as

they appear vs. NEI annual updates

- Base year intended to be changed every 5 years

- Temporal scope is extended, if necessary, when the base year is

updated

- Historical data up to new base year are included

- Previous projected series are kept


2.1.- Ex-post evaluation

- Each 2 years:

- Projection values are checked against official NEI estimates

- Comparison at group and national level

- Deviation analysis:

a) due to trend estimation (non-updated NEI)

b) due to methodological issues (updated NEI)


2.2.- RAINS comparison

- Development of a 4-level hierarchy nomenclature (sub-SNAP =

SEP)

- Mapping RAINS-SEP (biunivocal correspondence)- Comparisons:

- Activity rate- Technology penetration and emission factors- NEC emissions

01/01/01/01

PP_EX_OTH-BC1-NOC

SNAP

Fuel = FTechnology =TReduction measure =M

SEP

Power Plant (SNAP)Existing (T)Other boiler type (T)Brown Coal (F)No Control Measure (M)


2.3 NOx Protocol accomplishment

NOx Emissions

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Year

NO

X (

kt)

Base (SEP)

NEI (1990-2003)

Accomplishment in 2009-2010


SNAP Groups Policy and measure

1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8 & 9

Strategy for saving energy and improving efficiency (E4)

1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8 & 9

Action plan for the implementation of E4 in the period 2005-2007

1, 2, 3, 4, 7 & 9 Plan for the electricity and gas sectors

1, 2, 3, 7 & 8 Plan for the increase of renewable energies

1 Directive 2001/80/EC for Large Combustion Plants

1 BREF on Large Combustion Plant

1, 4 BREF on Refineries

2, 6 National plan for house accessibility

1, 2, 3, 7 & 8Directive related to the quality of petrol and diesel fuels

2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10 & 11

Population projections for 2002-2020

3, 4 BREF on Iron and Steel production

3 BREF on Ferrous Metal processing

3, 4 BREF on Non-Ferrous Metal processes

3, 4 BREF on Cement and Lime production

3 BREF on Glass manufacture

3 BREF on Glass manufacture

4 BAT on ammonia manufacture

2.4 Policies and measures included in base scenario


SNAP Policy and measure

4 BAT on ammonium nitrate manufacture

4 BREF on Chlor-Alkali manufacture

4 BREF on Large Volume Organic Chemicals

4 BREF on Pulp and Paper manufacture

4, 6, 7, 8 Strategic Plan for Transport Infrastructures

4, 5 Directive on the control of VOC emissions.

4, 8 OSPAR Convention

4 BREF on Food, Drink and Milk processes

6 Directive on the limitation of emissions of VOC due to the use of organic solvents

6 BREF on Textile processing

6Reduction of the emissions of HFCs, PFCs and SF6 in the European Union

7 Auto Oil II programme

7 Agreements with car manufacturers

8 Directive against the emission of pollutants from engines in non-road mobile machinery

9 & 10 Waste plans

9 Directive on packaging and packaging waste

10 & 11 Nitrogen balance in Spanish agriculture

9, 10 & 11 Spanish Forestry Plan

10 & 11 Reform of the CAP. Medium-Term prospects for agricultural markets and income in the EU


Effect of Policies and Measures on NOx emissions

Effect of Measures Included in Base Scenario (NOx)

-1.000-800-600-400-200

0200400600800

1.0001.2001.4001.6001.8002.000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Year

NO

x (k

t)

Base scenario BAU scenario Measures effect


Effect of Measures Included in Base Scenario (NOx) for SNAP-1

-400-350-300-250-200-150-100

-500

50100150200250300350400450500

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Year

NO

x (k

t)


Energy sector


-10

-5

05

10

15

2025

30

35

4045

50

55

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Year

NO

x (k

t)



Industrial sector


-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Year

NO

x (k

t)



-10-8-6-4-202468

101214161820

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Year

NO

x (k

t)



Transport sector


-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Year

NO

x (k

t)



-75-50-25

0255075

100125150175200225250275300325350

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Year

NO

x (k

t)




0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Year

NO

x (k

t)


Waste sector and agriculture sector


-505

10

152025303540

45505560

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Year

NO

x (k

t)



Got. Protocol (1999)* SEP (2006) IIASA (2006)

2010 1990 % 2010 1990 % 2010 1990 %

Pop. (Mp) 40,57 38,97 4,1 45,50 38,85 17,1 45,50 38,85 17,1

GDP (b€) 631,20 377,96 67,0 695,57 406,25 71,2 - - -

Energy (PJ) 5215,00 3621,53 44,0 6674,58 N.A. - 6674,58 3618,12 84,5

Cattle (Mh) 6,00 5,13 17,0 5,67 5,06 12,0 6,14 5,08 20,9

Pigs (Mh) 20,30 15,98 27,0 26,33 16,94 55,4 26,94 16,99 58,6

Poultry (Mh) 83,10 44,92 85,0 181,53 166,26 9,2 170,03 157,19 8,2

F. use (kt N) 1052,00 1062,63 -1,0 1090,26 1074,17 1,5 1049,00 1074,17 -2,3

- Most of the drivers were underestimated

- Projected NOx emissions by PJ consumed in 2010 (153 t/PJ) will be lower

than the value associated to 1999 negotiations (162 t/PJ)

- SEP and IIASA estimates show a reasonable agreement

2.4 Possible causes for accomplishment delay

* Amann et al. November 1999. “Integrated Assessment Modelling for the Protocol to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone in Europe”. Report number “Lucht & Energie 132” from the Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment, Department for Air and Energy. The Netherlands.


2010 comparison SEP-G.P. RAINS-G.P.

Population (Mp) +12.15% +12.15%

GDP (billion €) +10.20% -

Energy (PJ) +27.99% +27.99%

Cattle (Mheads) -5.53% +2.34%

Pigs (Mheads) +29.70% +32.72%

Poultry (Mheads) +118.45% +104.61%

Fertiliser use (kt N) +3.64% -0.29%

Current situation 2005* G.P. %

Population (Mp) 44,11 40,57 +8,7%

GDP (billion €) 641,19 631,20 +1,6%

Energy (PJ) 6119,43 5215,00 +17,3%

Cattle (Mheads) 6,65** 6,00 +10,9%

Pigs (Mheads) 24,89** 20,30 +22,6%

Poultry (Mheads) 178,35** 83,10 +114,6%

Fertiliser use (kt N) 1052,29** 1052,00 +0,0%* Total National

** Data from 2004


3.- Conclusions

- Spain has a consistent methodology to evaluate emission projections

- A tailored software tool (EmiPro) supports data management, quality

checks and report generation

- A specific nomenclature (SEP) has been developed based on a SEP-

RAINS mapping

- Spain’s projections have been compared against RAINS results using

this mapping and the trends are very similar

- NOx protocol could be accomplished between 2009-2010 (Base

scenario)

- Measures considered would reduce 600 kt in 2010 (2909 kt from 2001)

- Difficulties in the achievement could be partly explained by unrealistic

projection of driver trends during negotiation

Documents

SPAIN’S EMISSION PROJECTIONS (SEP) PROJECT