Upload
others
View
2
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
01
Issue No. 104 March 2016|
Growth in Social Security enrolment slowed from 3.2% in January to 3.0% in February.
The Afi-ASEMPLEO SLM Indicator suggests that YoY growth in March will be similar to February's.
However, it will accelerate in April and May.
The February enrolment data confirm the scenario
suggested by leading indicators of economic activity.
The factors stimulating growth in the Spanish economy in
recent months remain present, but there are signs of a
gradual deterioration in the economic environment.
Growth in Social Security enrolment is slowing (now
3.0% YoY), affecting all sectors except hotels & catering.
Nevertheless, it is still a strong rate of job creation, similar
to that seen in the growth phase of the previous cycle. In
YoY terms, growth in enrolment is close to 500,000.
The Afi-ASEMPLEO SLM Indicator points to a gradual
deceleration in the labour market, to annual job creation
rates more in line with previous growth phases, of around
2.5-3%. From this point of view, the slower growth in
February would mark the beginning of this adjustment.
The Afi-ASEMPLEO SLM Indicator suggests that YoY
growth in March, supported by the effect of Easter Week,
will be similar to February's. The March data will provide
important indications about the direction of employment
during the rest of the year. If the forecasts are correct,
growth will slow further in April and May.
Easter Week will contain the slowing in job creation
SLM monthly forecast of workers in employment(millions)
SLM monthly forecast of workers in employment (% YoY change)
Source: Afi. (*) Mar 2016-May 2016 figures are forecasts
Source: Afi. (*)Mar 2016-May 2016 figures are forecasts
Labour Market MonitorSpanish
Key points of the month
Cop
yrig
ht A
fi-A
SEM
PLEO
. All
right
s re
serv
ed. 2
016.
1.4 1.41.6
1.8
2.32.6
2.82.9 3.0
3.0 2.9 3.03.03.1 3.1 3.1
3.0 3.0 3.0 3.02.9
2.9 2.8 2.7
0
1
2
3
4
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Jun-14/May-15 Jun-15/May-16 (*)
17.4 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.6
17.4 17.417.5
17.817.9
18.018.0 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1
17.9 17.918.0
18.318.4
16.8
17.0
17.2
17.4
17.6
17.8
18.0
18.2
18.4
18.6
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Jun-14/May-15 Jun-15/May-16 (*)
YoY growth in Social Security enrolment slowed from
3.2% in January to 3.0% in February, though this is still
high. The leading indicators had already anticipated this
turn of events, so it was no surprise that all economic
sectors except hotels & catering contributed to the
slowdown in job creation. In contrast, YoY growth in self-
employment picked up (1.2%), halting its slowing trend.
Nevertheless, the SS general scheme continues to grow
faster (3.5% YoY), bringing active workers into the
system. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, the monthly
increase in enrolment, at around 32,500, is similar to the
levels seen in the growth phase of the previous economic
cycle. Registered unemployment rose by some 22,000
over the previous month, which similarly represents a
slower YoY rate of decline than in recent months (8.0%
against 8.3% the previous month. Lastly, recruitment
again grew at double-digit rates in YoY terms (up 12.3%),
with growth in all types of contract, but especially
temporary ones, which continue to account for the bulk
of the increase.
02
Shortage of vacancies or excess of unemployed workers?
When eighty people (with similar profiles) apply for one vacancy, the probability of any one of them being successful is 1.25%, a deterrent to potential applicants. Not to mention if, as happens at times, a thousand people apply for a vacancy (probability of success: 0.1%). Well, at the end of 2012, the ratio in Spain was 130 unemployed per vacancy, and the eighty applicants per vacancy mentioned in the in-depth study is the situation seen today. In the more efficient EU markets, the ratio is two unemployed per vacancy. It would be worth conducting a detailed study to discover why the Spanish labour market is so inefficient, but two questions immediately present themselves: why do Spanish companies offer so few vacancies? And, isn't there too much unemployment? In reality, the answer to both questions is 'yes', and moreover they are linked in the sense that the excess of unemployment is related to the scarcity of vacancies. Over the economic cycle, the ratio of unemployed workers to vacancies reduces as the economy recovers or grows. This is what has been happening recently in the Spanish economy. However, the Spanish ratio of 80 unemployed per vacancy is dozens of times higher than in the leading labour markets. One myth that is also disappearing in this crisis is that small companies (SMEs in reality) create more jobs than large corporates. Well, large corporates now provide almost as many vacancies as small companies, as the latter have ceased to be the "vacancy factories" that they were before the crisis, while medium-sized companies are also offering a declining number of vacancies.
Issue No. 104 March 2016|
The recovery in the Spanish economy and the consequent creation of employment
have significantly reduced the number of unemployed per job vacancy, from 130 at
the end of 2012 to fewer than 80 in 3Q15 (latest available figure). This change is due
to both the fall in unemployment (down 19.4% between 4Q12 and 3Q15) and the
increase in vacancies (up 37% over the same period).
The movement up the Beveridge curve (which traces the relationship between the
unemployment rate and the ratio of vacancies to the labour force) indicates that the
economic recovery is allowing a growing number of workers to rejoin the labour
market, while also revealing the reduced competition facing candidates for new
vacancies.
This recent trend has to be welcome in a labour market like Spain's, characterised
by its extreme inefficiency in comparison with those of neighbouring European
countries. In Germany and the UK, for example, there are only two unemployed per
vacancy in 3Q15 (latest available figure). This is far below Spain's best figures: in
the growth phase of the previous cycle there were some 20 unemployed per
vacancy, a quarter of the current level. Thus there is still a long way to go before this
situation is reversed.
In 3Q15, there less than 80 unemployed per vacancyThe number of unemployed per vacancy has fallen with the economic recovery, from 130 at the end of 2012 to 80 in 3Q15, though we are still far from the pre-crisis levels of 20 unemployed per vacancy, not to mention the ratios prevailing in the more efficient European labour markets. The future increase in vacancies, which would lead to a rapid decline in the ratio, requires an improvement in sales to drive the expansion of workforces.
The number of unemployed per vacancy has fallen with the economic recovery, from 130 at the end of 2012 to 80 in 3Q15...
03
... though we are still far from the pre-crisis levels of 20 unemployed per vacancy, or the ratios prevailing in the more efficient European labour markets.
Issue No. 104 March 2016|
Afi-ASEMPLEO SLM ‘clock’ 2014-2016
Source: Ministry of Employment and Social Security
Beveridge curve
Professional mediation to fill vacancies
Spanish SMEs are encountering growing difficulties in filling vacancies that are key to their new projects. The labour market must face up to new business models that require certain skills and competencies, and need professional agents to match new demands with profiles appropriate to these new positions.
The placement, temporary employment and executive recruitment agencies have shown themselves to be potentially competent, but vastly under-utilised, instruments for identifying suitable profiles for specific positions. In this process, it is essential to analyse accurately the profile required for each position, to identify the capabilities of each candidate, refocus training for employment, manage geographical mobility and to be familiar with the trends in each sector, among other factors.
It has been shown empirically that a greater participation of temporary employment agencies in the labour market would help to bring down unemployment and to bring a great many jobs out of the black economy, with the consequent benefits for the public coffers due to increased tax collection.
Hence, a greater involvement of private employment agencies would not only resolve the problem of unfilled vacancies, adding value with regard to the fit and professionalism of the positions filled, but it would also contribute to the reduction of the current levels of unemployment and increase the competitiveness of Spanish businesses.
Soc. Sec. enrolment (YoY growth %)
Reg
iste
red
un
em
plo
ym
en
t (Y
oY
gro
wth
%)
Unemployed per job vacancy (each quarter and 4-quarterly moving average)
Source: INE, Ministry of Employment and Social Security
Andreu Cruañas,. President of Asempleo José Antonio Herce, Associate Director Afi
Source: INE, Ministry of Employment and Social Security
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
0 1 2 3 4
January 14 (0,0; -3,3)
February 16 (3,0; -8,0)
The Specialized
Labour Market Review Labour Market MonitorSpanish
Cop
yrig
ht A
fi-A
SEM
PLEO
. All
right
s re
serv
ed. 2
016.
Cop
yrig
ht A
fi-A
SEM
PLEO
. All
right
s re
serv
ed. 2
016.
The assessment of The highlight of
1Q05
2Q053Q054Q05
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07 2Q07
3Q07
4Q071Q08
2Q083Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09 1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q112Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q122Q12
3Q12
4Q121Q132Q13
3Q13
4Q131Q142Q14
3Q144Q14
1Q15
2Q153Q15
0.15%
0.20%
0.25%
0.30%
0.35%
0.40%
0.45%
0.50%
0.55%
5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
No
. o
f va
cancie
s/la
bo
ur
forc
e
Unemployment rate
2005-2008 2009-2015
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Mar-
05
Sep
-05
Mar-
06
Sep
-06
Mar-
07
Sep
-07
Mar-
08
Sep
-08
Mar-
09
Sep
-09
Mar-
10
Sep
-10
Mar-
11
Sep
-11
Mar-
12
Sep
-12
Mar-
13
Sep
-13
Mar-
14
Sep
-14
Mar-
15
Sep
-15
YoY growth in Social Security enrolment slowed from
3.2% in January to 3.0% in February, though this is still
high. The leading indicators had already anticipated this
turn of events, so it was no surprise that all economic
sectors except hotels & catering contributed to the
slowdown in job creation. In contrast, YoY growth in self-
employment picked up (1.2%), halting its slowing trend.
Nevertheless, the SS general scheme continues to grow
faster (3.5% YoY), bringing active workers into the
system. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, the monthly
increase in enrolment, at around 32,500, is similar to the
levels seen in the growth phase of the previous economic
cycle. Registered unemployment rose by some 22,000
over the previous month, which similarly represents a
slower YoY rate of decline than in recent months (8.0%
against 8.3% the previous month. Lastly, recruitment
again grew at double-digit rates in YoY terms (up 12.3%),
with growth in all types of contract, but especially
temporary ones, which continue to account for the bulk
of the increase.
02
Shortage of vacancies or excess of unemployed workers?
When eighty people (with similar profiles) apply for one vacancy, the probability of any one of them being successful is 1.25%, a deterrent to potential applicants. Not to mention if, as happens at times, a thousand people apply for a vacancy (probability of success: 0.1%). Well, at the end of 2012, the ratio in Spain was 130 unemployed per vacancy, and the eighty applicants per vacancy mentioned in the in-depth study is the situation seen today. In the more efficient EU markets, the ratio is two unemployed per vacancy. It would be worth conducting a detailed study to discover why the Spanish labour market is so inefficient, but two questions immediately present themselves: why do Spanish companies offer so few vacancies? And, isn't there too much unemployment? In reality, the answer to both questions is 'yes', and moreover they are linked in the sense that the excess of unemployment is related to the scarcity of vacancies. Over the economic cycle, the ratio of unemployed workers to vacancies reduces as the economy recovers or grows. This is what has been happening recently in the Spanish economy. However, the Spanish ratio of 80 unemployed per vacancy is dozens of times higher than in the leading labour markets. One myth that is also disappearing in this crisis is that small companies (SMEs in reality) create more jobs than large corporates. Well, large corporates now provide almost as many vacancies as small companies, as the latter have ceased to be the "vacancy factories" that they were before the crisis, while medium-sized companies are also offering a declining number of vacancies.
Issue No. 104 March 2016|
The recovery in the Spanish economy and the consequent creation of employment
have significantly reduced the number of unemployed per job vacancy, from 130 at
the end of 2012 to fewer than 80 in 3Q15 (latest available figure). This change is due
to both the fall in unemployment (down 19.4% between 4Q12 and 3Q15) and the
increase in vacancies (up 37% over the same period).
The movement up the Beveridge curve (which traces the relationship between the
unemployment rate and the ratio of vacancies to the labour force) indicates that the
economic recovery is allowing a growing number of workers to rejoin the labour
market, while also revealing the reduced competition facing candidates for new
vacancies.
This recent trend has to be welcome in a labour market like Spain's, characterised
by its extreme inefficiency in comparison with those of neighbouring European
countries. In Germany and the UK, for example, there are only two unemployed per
vacancy in 3Q15 (latest available figure). This is far below Spain's best figures: in
the growth phase of the previous cycle there were some 20 unemployed per
vacancy, a quarter of the current level. Thus there is still a long way to go before this
situation is reversed.
In 3Q15, there less than 80 unemployed per vacancyThe number of unemployed per vacancy has fallen with the economic recovery, from 130 at the end of 2012 to 80 in 3Q15, though we are still far from the pre-crisis levels of 20 unemployed per vacancy, not to mention the ratios prevailing in the more efficient European labour markets. The future increase in vacancies, which would lead to a rapid decline in the ratio, requires an improvement in sales to drive the expansion of workforces.
The number of unemployed per vacancy has fallen with the economic recovery, from 130 at the end of 2012 to 80 in 3Q15...
03
... though we are still far from the pre-crisis levels of 20 unemployed per vacancy, or the ratios prevailing in the more efficient European labour markets.
Issue No. 104 March 2016|
Afi-ASEMPLEO SLM ‘clock’ 2014-2016
Source: Ministry of Employment and Social Security
Beveridge curve
Professional mediation to fill vacancies
Spanish SMEs are encountering growing difficulties in filling vacancies that are key to their new projects. The labour market must face up to new business models that require certain skills and competencies, and need professional agents to match new demands with profiles appropriate to these new positions.
The placement, temporary employment and executive recruitment agencies have shown themselves to be potentially competent, but vastly under-utilised, instruments for identifying suitable profiles for specific positions. In this process, it is essential to analyse accurately the profile required for each position, to identify the capabilities of each candidate, refocus training for employment, manage geographical mobility and to be familiar with the trends in each sector, among other factors.
It has been shown empirically that a greater participation of temporary employment agencies in the labour market would help to bring down unemployment and to bring a great many jobs out of the black economy, with the consequent benefits for the public coffers due to increased tax collection.
Hence, a greater involvement of private employment agencies would not only resolve the problem of unfilled vacancies, adding value with regard to the fit and professionalism of the positions filled, but it would also contribute to the reduction of the current levels of unemployment and increase the competitiveness of Spanish businesses.
Soc. Sec. enrolment (YoY growth %)
Reg
iste
red
un
em
plo
ym
en
t (Y
oY
gro
wth
%)
Unemployed per job vacancy (each quarter and 4-quarterly moving average)
Source: INE, Ministry of Employment and Social Security
Andreu Cruañas,. President of Asempleo José Antonio Herce, Associate Director Afi
Source: INE, Ministry of Employment and Social Security
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
0 1 2 3 4
January 14 (0,0; -3,3)
February 16 (3,0; -8,0)
The Specialized
Labour Market Review Labour Market MonitorSpanish
Cop
yrig
ht A
fi-A
SEM
PLEO
. All
right
s re
serv
ed. 2
016.
Cop
yrig
ht A
fi-A
SEM
PLEO
. All
right
s re
serv
ed. 2
016.
The assessment of The highlight of
1Q05
2Q053Q054Q05
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07 2Q07
3Q07
4Q071Q08
2Q083Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09 1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q112Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q122Q12
3Q12
4Q121Q132Q13
3Q13
4Q131Q142Q14
3Q144Q14
1Q15
2Q153Q15
0.15%
0.20%
0.25%
0.30%
0.35%
0.40%
0.45%
0.50%
0.55%
5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
No
. o
f va
cancie
s/la
bo
ur
forc
e
Unemployment rate
2005-2008 2009-2015
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Mar-
05
Sep
-05
Mar-
06
Sep
-06
Mar-
07
Sep
-07
Mar-
08
Sep
-08
Mar-
09
Sep
-09
Mar-
10
Sep
-10
Mar-
11
Sep
-11
Mar-
12
Sep
-12
Mar-
13
Sep
-13
Mar-
14
Sep
-14
Mar-
15
Sep
-15
Issue No. 104 March 2016|Issue No. 104 March 2016|
At the regional level, the transition from the combination of high unemployment
rates and low job vacancy rates in 2012 to others in which low employment rates
and slightly higher vacancy rates predominate in 2015 can be observed in a good
number of regions. The regions of Madrid, Catalonia and Aragon have led the way
with the most positive changes, positioning themselves as Spain's most efficient
labour markets, with unemployment rates substantially below the national average
and above average capacities to generate employment in terms of the number of
vacancies as a percentage of active workers. In contrast, the regions of Andalusia,
the Canary Islands, Extremadura, Valencia, Castile and Leon and Murcia have
made little progress in this direction as, in addition to unemployment rates above
the national average, they have barely increased the number of vacancies as a
percentage of active workers. If this combination cannot be reversed in the near
future, the problem of unemployment will become embedded in these regions,
with negative consequences for their competitiveness.
The number of vacancies will only increase if the economic situation improves and
this has a positive impact on companies' sales, leading to an expansion of their
workforces. This is what has been happening during the recovery, though not with
sufficient strength to bring about a rapid return to the pre-crisis situation. The main
reason cited by companies for not offering more vacancies is precisely the absence
of a significant increase in their sales (cited by 93.6% of companies in 3Q15). This
situation is found in all economic sectors, except in public administrations, where the
reasons are related to differences in recruiting processes (for both permanent and
temporary staff).
The snapshot of the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed per vacancy
by sector in 3Q15 shows that hotels & catering has the worst combination, with the
second highest unemployment rate (14.0%), exceeded only by construction
(15.3%), and the highest number of unemployed per vacancy (100.7). However,
these figures are due partly to the fact that the statistics only link unemployed
workers to a sector during the first year of unemployment, excluding the long-term
unemployed who, though declining in recent quarters, still represent a high
proportion of the total (59.5% in 4Q15), especially in sectors which have suffered the
most dramatic adjustments during the crisis. The other factor is the high rates of staff
turnover in this sector. Hotels & catering, together with artistic and entertainment
activities, saw the highest level of recruitment (total and temporary) in 3Q15 as a
proportion of its share of the labour force (over 400 temporary contracts and over 500
in total per 1,000 active workers).
The future increase in vacancies, which would lead to a rapid decline in the ratio, requires an improvement in sales that would create the need to expand workforces.
04 05
The regions of Madrid, Catalonia and Aragon have the most efficient labour markets in Spain.
Small companies create the most vacancies
Hotels & catering has the highest number of unemployed per vacancy, due to its higher rates of staff turnover.
Unemployment rate and unemployed per job vacancy by economic sector in 3Q15
Source: INE
Reasons for absence of job vacancies by economic sector in 3Q15 (% total)
Source: INE
By size of company, small enterprises continue to create the largest share of job
vacancies (46% in 3Q15), reflecting their prevalence in the productive economy and
in job creation. However, before the outbreak of the crisis, they accounted for over
70% of vacancies, and they are ceding their leadership to large corporates, which
were responsible for over 30% of the total in 2015, compared to some 20% until
2012. Thus, the gap between vacancies in the two types of company is now only 10
percentage points, compared to over 50 a decade ago. This represents a real
structural change which calls for analysis.
Job vacancies by company size (thousands)
Source: INE
Job vacancies and unemployment rate
ExtremaduraSpain
Andalusia
Murcia
Madrid
Castile and Leon
Castile-La Mancha Valencia
Aragon
Navarre
La Rioja
Galicia
Asturias Cantabria Basque Country
Balearic Islands
Catalonia
Canary Islands
Position relative to the nationalaverage in unemployment rateand vacancies. Q315
Positive (less unemployment rate and more vacancy rate)
Source: INE
0.1
9%
0.0
8%
0.0
3%
0.1
3%
0.1
4%
0.4
1%
0.0
5%
0.1
0%
0.1
4%
0.2
3%
0.2
3%
0.2
2%
0.1
0%
0.3
5%
0.0
7%
0.1
2%
0.2
5%
0.2
3%
0.2
7%
0.2
0%
0.3
1%
0.1
1%
0.2
1%
0.1
9%
0.0
9%
0.2
5%
0.2
5%
0.3
8%
0.1
9%
0.1
7%
0.1
9%
0.4
5%
0.2
6%
0.1
3%
0.2
6%
0.2
2%
Dec-12Sep-15
Neutral (less unemployment rateless vacancy rate)
Negative (more unemployment rate and less vacancy rate)
Job vacancies (% active population)
* Sector (in descending order by number of unemployed per vacancy in 3Q15): “1” – Hotels & catering; “2” – Transport & storage; “3” – Construction; “4” – Ind. Manufacturing; “5” – Artistic & entertainment act.; “6” – Veh. sale & repair; “7” – Education; “8” – Admin. & aux. act.; “9” – Finance & insurance; “10” – Other services; “11” – Public Admin.; “12” – Profess., scient. & tech. act.; “13” – Healthcare & Soc. Sec.; “14” – Real Estate; “15” – Information & communications; “16” – Extractive ind.; “17” – Energy; “18” – Water supply & sanitation”.
Labour Market ReviewThe specialized Labour Market ReviewThe specialized
Cop
yrig
ht A
fi-A
SEM
PLEO
. All
right
s re
serv
ed. 2
016.
Cop
yrig
ht A
fi-A
SEM
PLEO
. All
right
s re
serv
ed. 2
016.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Others High cost of hiring
No workers required
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
1
2
34 5
67
89
101112
1314
1516 17180
20
40
60
80
100
120
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Un
em
plo
yed
per
job
vacan
cy
Unemployment rate
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Mar-
05
Sep
-05
Mar-
06
Sep
-06
Mar-
07
Sep
-07
Mar-
08
Sep
-08
Mar-
09
Sep
-09
Mar-
10
Sep
-10
Mar-
11
Sep
-11
Mar-
12
Sep
-12
Mar-
13
Sep
-13
Mar-
14
Sep
-14
Mar-
15
Sep
-15
Small Medium Large
Issue No. 104 March 2016|Issue No. 104 March 2016|
At the regional level, the transition from the combination of high unemployment
rates and low job vacancy rates in 2012 to others in which low employment rates
and slightly higher vacancy rates predominate in 2015 can be observed in a good
number of regions. The regions of Madrid, Catalonia and Aragon have led the way
with the most positive changes, positioning themselves as Spain's most efficient
labour markets, with unemployment rates substantially below the national average
and above average capacities to generate employment in terms of the number of
vacancies as a percentage of active workers. In contrast, the regions of Andalusia,
the Canary Islands, Extremadura, Valencia, Castile and Leon and Murcia have
made little progress in this direction as, in addition to unemployment rates above
the national average, they have barely increased the number of vacancies as a
percentage of active workers. If this combination cannot be reversed in the near
future, the problem of unemployment will become embedded in these regions,
with negative consequences for their competitiveness.
The number of vacancies will only increase if the economic situation improves and
this has a positive impact on companies' sales, leading to an expansion of their
workforces. This is what has been happening during the recovery, though not with
sufficient strength to bring about a rapid return to the pre-crisis situation. The main
reason cited by companies for not offering more vacancies is precisely the absence
of a significant increase in their sales (cited by 93.6% of companies in 3Q15). This
situation is found in all economic sectors, except in public administrations, where the
reasons are related to differences in recruiting processes (for both permanent and
temporary staff).
The snapshot of the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed per vacancy
by sector in 3Q15 shows that hotels & catering has the worst combination, with the
second highest unemployment rate (14.0%), exceeded only by construction
(15.3%), and the highest number of unemployed per vacancy (100.7). However,
these figures are due partly to the fact that the statistics only link unemployed
workers to a sector during the first year of unemployment, excluding the long-term
unemployed who, though declining in recent quarters, still represent a high
proportion of the total (59.5% in 4Q15), especially in sectors which have suffered the
most dramatic adjustments during the crisis. The other factor is the high rates of staff
turnover in this sector. Hotels & catering, together with artistic and entertainment
activities, saw the highest level of recruitment (total and temporary) in 3Q15 as a
proportion of its share of the labour force (over 400 temporary contracts and over 500
in total per 1,000 active workers).
The future increase in vacancies, which would lead to a rapid decline in the ratio, requires an improvement in sales that would create the need to expand workforces.
04 05
The regions of Madrid, Catalonia and Aragon have the most efficient labour markets in Spain.
Small companies create the most vacancies
Hotels & catering has the highest number of unemployed per vacancy, due to its higher rates of staff turnover.
Unemployment rate and unemployed per job vacancy by economic sector in 3Q15
Source: INE
Reasons for absence of job vacancies by economic sector in 3Q15 (% total)
Source: INE
By size of company, small enterprises continue to create the largest share of job
vacancies (46% in 3Q15), reflecting their prevalence in the productive economy and
in job creation. However, before the outbreak of the crisis, they accounted for over
70% of vacancies, and they are ceding their leadership to large corporates, which
were responsible for over 30% of the total in 2015, compared to some 20% until
2012. Thus, the gap between vacancies in the two types of company is now only 10
percentage points, compared to over 50 a decade ago. This represents a real
structural change which calls for analysis.
Job vacancies by company size (thousands)
Source: INE
Job vacancies and unemployment rate
ExtremaduraSpain
Andalusia
Murcia
Madrid
Castile and Leon
Castile-La Mancha Valencia
Aragon
Navarre
La Rioja
Galicia
Asturias Cantabria Basque Country
Balearic Islands
Catalonia
Canary Islands
Position relative to the nationalaverage in unemployment rateand vacancies. Q315
Positive (less unemployment rate and more vacancy rate)
Source: INE
0.1
9%
0.0
8%
0.0
3%
0.1
3%
0.1
4%
0.4
1%
0.0
5%
0.1
0%
0.1
4%
0.2
3%
0.2
3%
0.2
2%
0.1
0%
0.3
5%
0.0
7%
0.1
2%
0.2
5%
0.2
3%
0.2
7%
0.2
0%
0.3
1%
0.1
1%
0.2
1%
0.1
9%
0.0
9%
0.2
5%
0.2
5%
0.3
8%
0.1
9%
0.1
7%
0.1
9%
0.4
5%
0.2
6%
0.1
3%
0.2
6%
0.2
2%
Dec-12Sep-15
Neutral (less unemployment rateless vacancy rate)
Negative (more unemployment rate and less vacancy rate)
Job vacancies (% active population)
* Sector (in descending order by number of unemployed per vacancy in 3Q15): “1” – Hotels & catering; “2” – Transport & storage; “3” – Construction; “4” – Ind. Manufacturing; “5” – Artistic & entertainment act.; “6” – Veh. sale & repair; “7” – Education; “8” – Admin. & aux. act.; “9” – Finance & insurance; “10” – Other services; “11” – Public Admin.; “12” – Profess., scient. & tech. act.; “13” – Healthcare & Soc. Sec.; “14” – Real Estate; “15” – Information & communications; “16” – Extractive ind.; “17” – Energy; “18” – Water supply & sanitation”.
Labour Market ReviewThe specialized Labour Market ReviewThe specialized
Cop
yrig
ht A
fi-A
SEM
PLEO
. All
right
s re
serv
ed. 2
016.
Cop
yrig
ht A
fi-A
SEM
PLEO
. All
right
s re
serv
ed. 2
016.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Others High cost of hiring
No workers required
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
1
2
34 5
67
89
101112
1314
1516 17180
20
40
60
80
100
120
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Un
em
plo
yed
per
job
vacan
cy
Unemployment rate
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Mar-
05
Sep
-05
Mar-
06
Sep
-06
Mar-
07
Sep
-07
Mar-
08
Sep
-08
Mar-
09
Sep
-09
Mar-
10
Sep
-10
Mar-
11
Sep
-11
Mar-
12
Sep
-12
Mar-
13
Sep
-13
Mar-
14
Sep
-14
Mar-
15
Sep
-15
Small Medium Large