5
01 Issue No. 104 March 2016 | Growth in Social Security enrolment slowed from 3.2% in January to 3.0% in February. The Afi-ASEMPLEO SLM Indicator suggests that YoY growth in March will be similar to February's. However, it will accelerate in April and May. The February enrolment data confirm the scenario suggested by leading indicators of economic activity. The factors stimulating growth in the Spanish economy in recent months remain present, but there are signs of a gradual deterioration in the economic environment. Growth in Social Security enrolment is slowing (now 3.0% YoY), affecting all sectors except hotels & catering. Nevertheless, it is still a strong rate of job creation, similar to that seen in the growth phase of the previous cycle. In YoY terms, growth in enrolment is close to 500,000. The Afi-ASEMPLEO SLM Indicator points to a gradual deceleration in the labour market, to annual job creation rates more in line with previous growth phases, of around 2.5-3%. From this point of view, the slower growth in February would mark the beginning of this adjustment. The Afi-ASEMPLEO SLM Indicator suggests that YoY growth in March, supported by the effect of Easter Week, will be similar to February's. The March data will provide important indications about the direction of employment during the rest of the year. If the forecasts are correct, growth will slow further in April and May. Easter Week will contain the slowing in job creation SLM monthly forecast of workers in employment (millions) SLM monthly forecast of workers in employment (% YoY change) Source: Afi. (*) Mar 2016-May 2016 figures are forecasts Source: Afi. (*)Mar 2016-May 2016 figures are forecasts Labour Market Monitor Spanish Key points of the month Copyright Afi-ASEMPLEO. All rights reserved. 2016. 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.3 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 0 1 2 3 4 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun-14/May-15 Jun-15/May-16 (*) 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.4 17.4 17.5 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 17.9 17.9 18.0 18.3 18.4 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.6 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun-14/May-15 Jun-15/May-16 (*)

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Page 1: Spanish Labour Market Monitor - asempleo.comn-AML-nº-1… · 01 Issue No. 104 | March 2016 Growth in Social Security enrolment slowed from 3.2% in January to 3.0% in February. The

01

Issue No. 104 March 2016|

Growth in Social Security enrolment slowed from 3.2% in January to 3.0% in February.

The Afi-ASEMPLEO SLM Indicator suggests that YoY growth in March will be similar to February's.

However, it will accelerate in April and May.

The February enrolment data confirm the scenario

suggested by leading indicators of economic activity.

The factors stimulating growth in the Spanish economy in

recent months remain present, but there are signs of a

gradual deterioration in the economic environment.

Growth in Social Security enrolment is slowing (now

3.0% YoY), affecting all sectors except hotels & catering.

Nevertheless, it is still a strong rate of job creation, similar

to that seen in the growth phase of the previous cycle. In

YoY terms, growth in enrolment is close to 500,000.

The Afi-ASEMPLEO SLM Indicator points to a gradual

deceleration in the labour market, to annual job creation

rates more in line with previous growth phases, of around

2.5-3%. From this point of view, the slower growth in

February would mark the beginning of this adjustment.

The Afi-ASEMPLEO SLM Indicator suggests that YoY

growth in March, supported by the effect of Easter Week,

will be similar to February's. The March data will provide

important indications about the direction of employment

during the rest of the year. If the forecasts are correct,

growth will slow further in April and May.

Easter Week will contain the slowing in job creation

SLM monthly forecast of workers in employment(millions)

SLM monthly forecast of workers in employment (% YoY change)

Source: Afi. (*) Mar 2016-May 2016 figures are forecasts

Source: Afi. (*)Mar 2016-May 2016 figures are forecasts

Labour Market MonitorSpanish

Key points of the month

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1.4 1.41.6

1.8

2.32.6

2.82.9 3.0

3.0 2.9 3.03.03.1 3.1 3.1

3.0 3.0 3.0 3.02.9

2.9 2.8 2.7

0

1

2

3

4

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Jun-14/May-15 Jun-15/May-16 (*)

17.4 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.6

17.4 17.417.5

17.817.9

18.018.0 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1

17.9 17.918.0

18.318.4

16.8

17.0

17.2

17.4

17.6

17.8

18.0

18.2

18.4

18.6

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Jun-14/May-15 Jun-15/May-16 (*)

Page 2: Spanish Labour Market Monitor - asempleo.comn-AML-nº-1… · 01 Issue No. 104 | March 2016 Growth in Social Security enrolment slowed from 3.2% in January to 3.0% in February. The

YoY growth in Social Security enrolment slowed from

3.2% in January to 3.0% in February, though this is still

high. The leading indicators had already anticipated this

turn of events, so it was no surprise that all economic

sectors except hotels & catering contributed to the

slowdown in job creation. In contrast, YoY growth in self-

employment picked up (1.2%), halting its slowing trend.

Nevertheless, the SS general scheme continues to grow

faster (3.5% YoY), bringing active workers into the

system. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, the monthly

increase in enrolment, at around 32,500, is similar to the

levels seen in the growth phase of the previous economic

cycle. Registered unemployment rose by some 22,000

over the previous month, which similarly represents a

slower YoY rate of decline than in recent months (8.0%

against 8.3% the previous month. Lastly, recruitment

again grew at double-digit rates in YoY terms (up 12.3%),

with growth in all types of contract, but especially

temporary ones, which continue to account for the bulk

of the increase.

02

Shortage of vacancies or excess of unemployed workers?

When eighty people (with similar profiles) apply for one vacancy, the probability of any one of them being successful is 1.25%, a deterrent to potential applicants. Not to mention if, as happens at times, a thousand people apply for a vacancy (probability of success: 0.1%). Well, at the end of 2012, the ratio in Spain was 130 unemployed per vacancy, and the eighty applicants per vacancy mentioned in the in-depth study is the situation seen today. In the more efficient EU markets, the ratio is two unemployed per vacancy. It would be worth conducting a detailed study to discover why the Spanish labour market is so inefficient, but two questions immediately present themselves: why do Spanish companies offer so few vacancies? And, isn't there too much unemployment? In reality, the answer to both questions is 'yes', and moreover they are linked in the sense that the excess of unemployment is related to the scarcity of vacancies. Over the economic cycle, the ratio of unemployed workers to vacancies reduces as the economy recovers or grows. This is what has been happening recently in the Spanish economy. However, the Spanish ratio of 80 unemployed per vacancy is dozens of times higher than in the leading labour markets. One myth that is also disappearing in this crisis is that small companies (SMEs in reality) create more jobs than large corporates. Well, large corporates now provide almost as many vacancies as small companies, as the latter have ceased to be the "vacancy factories" that they were before the crisis, while medium-sized companies are also offering a declining number of vacancies.

Issue No. 104 March 2016|

The recovery in the Spanish economy and the consequent creation of employment

have significantly reduced the number of unemployed per job vacancy, from 130 at

the end of 2012 to fewer than 80 in 3Q15 (latest available figure). This change is due

to both the fall in unemployment (down 19.4% between 4Q12 and 3Q15) and the

increase in vacancies (up 37% over the same period).

The movement up the Beveridge curve (which traces the relationship between the

unemployment rate and the ratio of vacancies to the labour force) indicates that the

economic recovery is allowing a growing number of workers to rejoin the labour

market, while also revealing the reduced competition facing candidates for new

vacancies.

This recent trend has to be welcome in a labour market like Spain's, characterised

by its extreme inefficiency in comparison with those of neighbouring European

countries. In Germany and the UK, for example, there are only two unemployed per

vacancy in 3Q15 (latest available figure). This is far below Spain's best figures: in

the growth phase of the previous cycle there were some 20 unemployed per

vacancy, a quarter of the current level. Thus there is still a long way to go before this

situation is reversed.

In 3Q15, there less than 80 unemployed per vacancyThe number of unemployed per vacancy has fallen with the economic recovery, from 130 at the end of 2012 to 80 in 3Q15, though we are still far from the pre-crisis levels of 20 unemployed per vacancy, not to mention the ratios prevailing in the more efficient European labour markets. The future increase in vacancies, which would lead to a rapid decline in the ratio, requires an improvement in sales to drive the expansion of workforces.

The number of unemployed per vacancy has fallen with the economic recovery, from 130 at the end of 2012 to 80 in 3Q15...

03

... though we are still far from the pre-crisis levels of 20 unemployed per vacancy, or the ratios prevailing in the more efficient European labour markets.

Issue No. 104 March 2016|

Afi-ASEMPLEO SLM ‘clock’ 2014-2016

Source: Ministry of Employment and Social Security

Beveridge curve

Professional mediation to fill vacancies

Spanish SMEs are encountering growing difficulties in filling vacancies that are key to their new projects. The labour market must face up to new business models that require certain skills and competencies, and need professional agents to match new demands with profiles appropriate to these new positions.

The placement, temporary employment and executive recruitment agencies have shown themselves to be potentially competent, but vastly under-utilised, instruments for identifying suitable profiles for specific positions. In this process, it is essential to analyse accurately the profile required for each position, to identify the capabilities of each candidate, refocus training for employment, manage geographical mobility and to be familiar with the trends in each sector, among other factors.

It has been shown empirically that a greater participation of temporary employment agencies in the labour market would help to bring down unemployment and to bring a great many jobs out of the black economy, with the consequent benefits for the public coffers due to increased tax collection.

Hence, a greater involvement of private employment agencies would not only resolve the problem of unfilled vacancies, adding value with regard to the fit and professionalism of the positions filled, but it would also contribute to the reduction of the current levels of unemployment and increase the competitiveness of Spanish businesses.

Soc. Sec. enrolment (YoY growth %)

Reg

iste

red

un

em

plo

ym

en

t (Y

oY

gro

wth

%)

Unemployed per job vacancy (each quarter and 4-quarterly moving average)

Source: INE, Ministry of Employment and Social Security

Andreu Cruañas,. President of Asempleo José Antonio Herce, Associate Director Afi

Source: INE, Ministry of Employment and Social Security

-10

-9

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

0 1 2 3 4

January 14 (0,0; -3,3)

February 16 (3,0; -8,0)

The Specialized

Labour Market Review Labour Market MonitorSpanish

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The assessment of The highlight of

1Q05

2Q053Q054Q05

1Q06

2Q06

3Q06

4Q06

1Q07 2Q07

3Q07

4Q071Q08

2Q083Q08

4Q08

1Q09

2Q09

3Q09

4Q09 1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

1Q112Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q122Q12

3Q12

4Q121Q132Q13

3Q13

4Q131Q142Q14

3Q144Q14

1Q15

2Q153Q15

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

0.35%

0.40%

0.45%

0.50%

0.55%

5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

No

. o

f va

cancie

s/la

bo

ur

forc

e

Unemployment rate

2005-2008 2009-2015

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Mar-

05

Sep

-05

Mar-

06

Sep

-06

Mar-

07

Sep

-07

Mar-

08

Sep

-08

Mar-

09

Sep

-09

Mar-

10

Sep

-10

Mar-

11

Sep

-11

Mar-

12

Sep

-12

Mar-

13

Sep

-13

Mar-

14

Sep

-14

Mar-

15

Sep

-15

Page 3: Spanish Labour Market Monitor - asempleo.comn-AML-nº-1… · 01 Issue No. 104 | March 2016 Growth in Social Security enrolment slowed from 3.2% in January to 3.0% in February. The

YoY growth in Social Security enrolment slowed from

3.2% in January to 3.0% in February, though this is still

high. The leading indicators had already anticipated this

turn of events, so it was no surprise that all economic

sectors except hotels & catering contributed to the

slowdown in job creation. In contrast, YoY growth in self-

employment picked up (1.2%), halting its slowing trend.

Nevertheless, the SS general scheme continues to grow

faster (3.5% YoY), bringing active workers into the

system. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, the monthly

increase in enrolment, at around 32,500, is similar to the

levels seen in the growth phase of the previous economic

cycle. Registered unemployment rose by some 22,000

over the previous month, which similarly represents a

slower YoY rate of decline than in recent months (8.0%

against 8.3% the previous month. Lastly, recruitment

again grew at double-digit rates in YoY terms (up 12.3%),

with growth in all types of contract, but especially

temporary ones, which continue to account for the bulk

of the increase.

02

Shortage of vacancies or excess of unemployed workers?

When eighty people (with similar profiles) apply for one vacancy, the probability of any one of them being successful is 1.25%, a deterrent to potential applicants. Not to mention if, as happens at times, a thousand people apply for a vacancy (probability of success: 0.1%). Well, at the end of 2012, the ratio in Spain was 130 unemployed per vacancy, and the eighty applicants per vacancy mentioned in the in-depth study is the situation seen today. In the more efficient EU markets, the ratio is two unemployed per vacancy. It would be worth conducting a detailed study to discover why the Spanish labour market is so inefficient, but two questions immediately present themselves: why do Spanish companies offer so few vacancies? And, isn't there too much unemployment? In reality, the answer to both questions is 'yes', and moreover they are linked in the sense that the excess of unemployment is related to the scarcity of vacancies. Over the economic cycle, the ratio of unemployed workers to vacancies reduces as the economy recovers or grows. This is what has been happening recently in the Spanish economy. However, the Spanish ratio of 80 unemployed per vacancy is dozens of times higher than in the leading labour markets. One myth that is also disappearing in this crisis is that small companies (SMEs in reality) create more jobs than large corporates. Well, large corporates now provide almost as many vacancies as small companies, as the latter have ceased to be the "vacancy factories" that they were before the crisis, while medium-sized companies are also offering a declining number of vacancies.

Issue No. 104 March 2016|

The recovery in the Spanish economy and the consequent creation of employment

have significantly reduced the number of unemployed per job vacancy, from 130 at

the end of 2012 to fewer than 80 in 3Q15 (latest available figure). This change is due

to both the fall in unemployment (down 19.4% between 4Q12 and 3Q15) and the

increase in vacancies (up 37% over the same period).

The movement up the Beveridge curve (which traces the relationship between the

unemployment rate and the ratio of vacancies to the labour force) indicates that the

economic recovery is allowing a growing number of workers to rejoin the labour

market, while also revealing the reduced competition facing candidates for new

vacancies.

This recent trend has to be welcome in a labour market like Spain's, characterised

by its extreme inefficiency in comparison with those of neighbouring European

countries. In Germany and the UK, for example, there are only two unemployed per

vacancy in 3Q15 (latest available figure). This is far below Spain's best figures: in

the growth phase of the previous cycle there were some 20 unemployed per

vacancy, a quarter of the current level. Thus there is still a long way to go before this

situation is reversed.

In 3Q15, there less than 80 unemployed per vacancyThe number of unemployed per vacancy has fallen with the economic recovery, from 130 at the end of 2012 to 80 in 3Q15, though we are still far from the pre-crisis levels of 20 unemployed per vacancy, not to mention the ratios prevailing in the more efficient European labour markets. The future increase in vacancies, which would lead to a rapid decline in the ratio, requires an improvement in sales to drive the expansion of workforces.

The number of unemployed per vacancy has fallen with the economic recovery, from 130 at the end of 2012 to 80 in 3Q15...

03

... though we are still far from the pre-crisis levels of 20 unemployed per vacancy, or the ratios prevailing in the more efficient European labour markets.

Issue No. 104 March 2016|

Afi-ASEMPLEO SLM ‘clock’ 2014-2016

Source: Ministry of Employment and Social Security

Beveridge curve

Professional mediation to fill vacancies

Spanish SMEs are encountering growing difficulties in filling vacancies that are key to their new projects. The labour market must face up to new business models that require certain skills and competencies, and need professional agents to match new demands with profiles appropriate to these new positions.

The placement, temporary employment and executive recruitment agencies have shown themselves to be potentially competent, but vastly under-utilised, instruments for identifying suitable profiles for specific positions. In this process, it is essential to analyse accurately the profile required for each position, to identify the capabilities of each candidate, refocus training for employment, manage geographical mobility and to be familiar with the trends in each sector, among other factors.

It has been shown empirically that a greater participation of temporary employment agencies in the labour market would help to bring down unemployment and to bring a great many jobs out of the black economy, with the consequent benefits for the public coffers due to increased tax collection.

Hence, a greater involvement of private employment agencies would not only resolve the problem of unfilled vacancies, adding value with regard to the fit and professionalism of the positions filled, but it would also contribute to the reduction of the current levels of unemployment and increase the competitiveness of Spanish businesses.

Soc. Sec. enrolment (YoY growth %)

Reg

iste

red

un

em

plo

ym

en

t (Y

oY

gro

wth

%)

Unemployed per job vacancy (each quarter and 4-quarterly moving average)

Source: INE, Ministry of Employment and Social Security

Andreu Cruañas,. President of Asempleo José Antonio Herce, Associate Director Afi

Source: INE, Ministry of Employment and Social Security

-10

-9

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

0 1 2 3 4

January 14 (0,0; -3,3)

February 16 (3,0; -8,0)

The Specialized

Labour Market Review Labour Market MonitorSpanish

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The assessment of The highlight of

1Q05

2Q053Q054Q05

1Q06

2Q06

3Q06

4Q06

1Q07 2Q07

3Q07

4Q071Q08

2Q083Q08

4Q08

1Q09

2Q09

3Q09

4Q09 1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

1Q112Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q122Q12

3Q12

4Q121Q132Q13

3Q13

4Q131Q142Q14

3Q144Q14

1Q15

2Q153Q15

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

0.35%

0.40%

0.45%

0.50%

0.55%

5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

No

. o

f va

cancie

s/la

bo

ur

forc

e

Unemployment rate

2005-2008 2009-2015

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Mar-

05

Sep

-05

Mar-

06

Sep

-06

Mar-

07

Sep

-07

Mar-

08

Sep

-08

Mar-

09

Sep

-09

Mar-

10

Sep

-10

Mar-

11

Sep

-11

Mar-

12

Sep

-12

Mar-

13

Sep

-13

Mar-

14

Sep

-14

Mar-

15

Sep

-15

Page 4: Spanish Labour Market Monitor - asempleo.comn-AML-nº-1… · 01 Issue No. 104 | March 2016 Growth in Social Security enrolment slowed from 3.2% in January to 3.0% in February. The

Issue No. 104 March 2016|Issue No. 104 March 2016|

At the regional level, the transition from the combination of high unemployment

rates and low job vacancy rates in 2012 to others in which low employment rates

and slightly higher vacancy rates predominate in 2015 can be observed in a good

number of regions. The regions of Madrid, Catalonia and Aragon have led the way

with the most positive changes, positioning themselves as Spain's most efficient

labour markets, with unemployment rates substantially below the national average

and above average capacities to generate employment in terms of the number of

vacancies as a percentage of active workers. In contrast, the regions of Andalusia,

the Canary Islands, Extremadura, Valencia, Castile and Leon and Murcia have

made little progress in this direction as, in addition to unemployment rates above

the national average, they have barely increased the number of vacancies as a

percentage of active workers. If this combination cannot be reversed in the near

future, the problem of unemployment will become embedded in these regions,

with negative consequences for their competitiveness.

The number of vacancies will only increase if the economic situation improves and

this has a positive impact on companies' sales, leading to an expansion of their

workforces. This is what has been happening during the recovery, though not with

sufficient strength to bring about a rapid return to the pre-crisis situation. The main

reason cited by companies for not offering more vacancies is precisely the absence

of a significant increase in their sales (cited by 93.6% of companies in 3Q15). This

situation is found in all economic sectors, except in public administrations, where the

reasons are related to differences in recruiting processes (for both permanent and

temporary staff).

The snapshot of the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed per vacancy

by sector in 3Q15 shows that hotels & catering has the worst combination, with the

second highest unemployment rate (14.0%), exceeded only by construction

(15.3%), and the highest number of unemployed per vacancy (100.7). However,

these figures are due partly to the fact that the statistics only link unemployed

workers to a sector during the first year of unemployment, excluding the long-term

unemployed who, though declining in recent quarters, still represent a high

proportion of the total (59.5% in 4Q15), especially in sectors which have suffered the

most dramatic adjustments during the crisis. The other factor is the high rates of staff

turnover in this sector. Hotels & catering, together with artistic and entertainment

activities, saw the highest level of recruitment (total and temporary) in 3Q15 as a

proportion of its share of the labour force (over 400 temporary contracts and over 500

in total per 1,000 active workers).

The future increase in vacancies, which would lead to a rapid decline in the ratio, requires an improvement in sales that would create the need to expand workforces.

04 05

The regions of Madrid, Catalonia and Aragon have the most efficient labour markets in Spain.

Small companies create the most vacancies

Hotels & catering has the highest number of unemployed per vacancy, due to its higher rates of staff turnover.

Unemployment rate and unemployed per job vacancy by economic sector in 3Q15

Source: INE

Reasons for absence of job vacancies by economic sector in 3Q15 (% total)

Source: INE

By size of company, small enterprises continue to create the largest share of job

vacancies (46% in 3Q15), reflecting their prevalence in the productive economy and

in job creation. However, before the outbreak of the crisis, they accounted for over

70% of vacancies, and they are ceding their leadership to large corporates, which

were responsible for over 30% of the total in 2015, compared to some 20% until

2012. Thus, the gap between vacancies in the two types of company is now only 10

percentage points, compared to over 50 a decade ago. This represents a real

structural change which calls for analysis.

Job vacancies by company size (thousands)

Source: INE

Job vacancies and unemployment rate

ExtremaduraSpain

Andalusia

Murcia

Madrid

Castile and Leon

Castile-La Mancha Valencia

Aragon

Navarre

La Rioja

Galicia

Asturias Cantabria Basque Country

Balearic Islands

Catalonia

Canary Islands

Position relative to the nationalaverage in unemployment rateand vacancies. Q315

Positive (less unemployment rate and more vacancy rate)

Source: INE

0.1

9%

0.0

8%

0.0

3%

0.1

3%

0.1

4%

0.4

1%

0.0

5%

0.1

0%

0.1

4%

0.2

3%

0.2

3%

0.2

2%

0.1

0%

0.3

5%

0.0

7%

0.1

2%

0.2

5%

0.2

3%

0.2

7%

0.2

0%

0.3

1%

0.1

1%

0.2

1%

0.1

9%

0.0

9%

0.2

5%

0.2

5%

0.3

8%

0.1

9%

0.1

7%

0.1

9%

0.4

5%

0.2

6%

0.1

3%

0.2

6%

0.2

2%

Dec-12Sep-15

Neutral (less unemployment rateless vacancy rate)

Negative (more unemployment rate and less vacancy rate)

Job vacancies (% active population)

* Sector (in descending order by number of unemployed per vacancy in 3Q15): “1” – Hotels & catering; “2” – Transport & storage; “3” – Construction; “4” – Ind. Manufacturing; “5” – Artistic & entertainment act.; “6” – Veh. sale & repair; “7” – Education; “8” – Admin. & aux. act.; “9” – Finance & insurance; “10” – Other services; “11” – Public Admin.; “12” – Profess., scient. & tech. act.; “13” – Healthcare & Soc. Sec.; “14” – Real Estate; “15” – Information & communications; “16” – Extractive ind.; “17” – Energy; “18” – Water supply & sanitation”.

Labour Market ReviewThe specialized Labour Market ReviewThe specialized

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Others High cost of hiring

No workers required

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

1

2

34 5

67

89

101112

1314

1516 17180

20

40

60

80

100

120

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Un

em

plo

yed

per

job

vacan

cy

Unemployment rate

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Mar-

05

Sep

-05

Mar-

06

Sep

-06

Mar-

07

Sep

-07

Mar-

08

Sep

-08

Mar-

09

Sep

-09

Mar-

10

Sep

-10

Mar-

11

Sep

-11

Mar-

12

Sep

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Page 5: Spanish Labour Market Monitor - asempleo.comn-AML-nº-1… · 01 Issue No. 104 | March 2016 Growth in Social Security enrolment slowed from 3.2% in January to 3.0% in February. The

Issue No. 104 March 2016|Issue No. 104 March 2016|

At the regional level, the transition from the combination of high unemployment

rates and low job vacancy rates in 2012 to others in which low employment rates

and slightly higher vacancy rates predominate in 2015 can be observed in a good

number of regions. The regions of Madrid, Catalonia and Aragon have led the way

with the most positive changes, positioning themselves as Spain's most efficient

labour markets, with unemployment rates substantially below the national average

and above average capacities to generate employment in terms of the number of

vacancies as a percentage of active workers. In contrast, the regions of Andalusia,

the Canary Islands, Extremadura, Valencia, Castile and Leon and Murcia have

made little progress in this direction as, in addition to unemployment rates above

the national average, they have barely increased the number of vacancies as a

percentage of active workers. If this combination cannot be reversed in the near

future, the problem of unemployment will become embedded in these regions,

with negative consequences for their competitiveness.

The number of vacancies will only increase if the economic situation improves and

this has a positive impact on companies' sales, leading to an expansion of their

workforces. This is what has been happening during the recovery, though not with

sufficient strength to bring about a rapid return to the pre-crisis situation. The main

reason cited by companies for not offering more vacancies is precisely the absence

of a significant increase in their sales (cited by 93.6% of companies in 3Q15). This

situation is found in all economic sectors, except in public administrations, where the

reasons are related to differences in recruiting processes (for both permanent and

temporary staff).

The snapshot of the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed per vacancy

by sector in 3Q15 shows that hotels & catering has the worst combination, with the

second highest unemployment rate (14.0%), exceeded only by construction

(15.3%), and the highest number of unemployed per vacancy (100.7). However,

these figures are due partly to the fact that the statistics only link unemployed

workers to a sector during the first year of unemployment, excluding the long-term

unemployed who, though declining in recent quarters, still represent a high

proportion of the total (59.5% in 4Q15), especially in sectors which have suffered the

most dramatic adjustments during the crisis. The other factor is the high rates of staff

turnover in this sector. Hotels & catering, together with artistic and entertainment

activities, saw the highest level of recruitment (total and temporary) in 3Q15 as a

proportion of its share of the labour force (over 400 temporary contracts and over 500

in total per 1,000 active workers).

The future increase in vacancies, which would lead to a rapid decline in the ratio, requires an improvement in sales that would create the need to expand workforces.

04 05

The regions of Madrid, Catalonia and Aragon have the most efficient labour markets in Spain.

Small companies create the most vacancies

Hotels & catering has the highest number of unemployed per vacancy, due to its higher rates of staff turnover.

Unemployment rate and unemployed per job vacancy by economic sector in 3Q15

Source: INE

Reasons for absence of job vacancies by economic sector in 3Q15 (% total)

Source: INE

By size of company, small enterprises continue to create the largest share of job

vacancies (46% in 3Q15), reflecting their prevalence in the productive economy and

in job creation. However, before the outbreak of the crisis, they accounted for over

70% of vacancies, and they are ceding their leadership to large corporates, which

were responsible for over 30% of the total in 2015, compared to some 20% until

2012. Thus, the gap between vacancies in the two types of company is now only 10

percentage points, compared to over 50 a decade ago. This represents a real

structural change which calls for analysis.

Job vacancies by company size (thousands)

Source: INE

Job vacancies and unemployment rate

ExtremaduraSpain

Andalusia

Murcia

Madrid

Castile and Leon

Castile-La Mancha Valencia

Aragon

Navarre

La Rioja

Galicia

Asturias Cantabria Basque Country

Balearic Islands

Catalonia

Canary Islands

Position relative to the nationalaverage in unemployment rateand vacancies. Q315

Positive (less unemployment rate and more vacancy rate)

Source: INE

0.1

9%

0.0

8%

0.0

3%

0.1

3%

0.1

4%

0.4

1%

0.0

5%

0.1

0%

0.1

4%

0.2

3%

0.2

3%

0.2

2%

0.1

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0.3

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0.0

7%

0.1

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0.2

5%

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7%

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0.4

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0.2

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0.1

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0.2

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Dec-12Sep-15

Neutral (less unemployment rateless vacancy rate)

Negative (more unemployment rate and less vacancy rate)

Job vacancies (% active population)

* Sector (in descending order by number of unemployed per vacancy in 3Q15): “1” – Hotels & catering; “2” – Transport & storage; “3” – Construction; “4” – Ind. Manufacturing; “5” – Artistic & entertainment act.; “6” – Veh. sale & repair; “7” – Education; “8” – Admin. & aux. act.; “9” – Finance & insurance; “10” – Other services; “11” – Public Admin.; “12” – Profess., scient. & tech. act.; “13” – Healthcare & Soc. Sec.; “14” – Real Estate; “15” – Information & communications; “16” – Extractive ind.; “17” – Energy; “18” – Water supply & sanitation”.

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