Spatial Development and Employment Trends in

London

Dave LawrenceRoger Tym & Partners

How to Cut the Cake

• Employment and Development Trends

• Policy Options

• Forecasting Spatial Change

London Employment Change 1982-2002

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

Change Change if London Trend

Office Pipeline & Job Change 1989-2001

Office Pipeline and Jobs Change 1989-2001

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

Development

Jobs Change

Office Jobs Change by Borough 1989-2001

Office Development Pipeline 1989

What Can You Shift?

Geographic Market Examples

Local Population sectors – retail, local health & ed, loc auth,

Sub-Regional Some distribution, leisure, hospitals, Small Businesses

London Capital functions

Greater South East Logistics, ICT

National Manufacturing, Govt

International FBS

Employees and Units by Size Band

73.7%

11.7%

12.7%

8.5%

6.9%

10.4%

3.2%

10.5%

2.8%

23.3%

0.5%

14.3%

0.2%

21.3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Units Employees

500 + employees

200-500 employees

50-200 employees

25-49 employees

11-24 employees

5-10 employees

1-4 employees

Locational Factors – London SMEs

63%60%

55%

38%36%

30% 29%26%

4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%C

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What Can You Shift?

Geographic Market Examples

Local Population sectors – retail, local health & ed, loc auth,

Sub-Regional Some distribution, leisure, hospitals, Small Businesses

London Capital functions

Greater South East Logistics, ICT

National Manufacturing, Govt

International FBS

London’s Economy

Criteria for Selection of a LocationThe Business Environment• Accessibility

• Proximity to Customer Base

• Availability and Cost of Labour

• Availability and Cost of Premises

• Image

• Business Services

• Attitude of Local Authority

Criteria for Selection of a LocationThe Living Environment• Character and Environment

• Housing Supply and Cost

• Schooling

• Shopping Facilities

• Culture and Entertainment

• Employment Opportunities for Families

Criteria for Selection of a LocationThe Business Environment• Accessibility

• Proximity to Customer Base

• Availability and Cost of Labour

• Availability and Cost of Premises

• Image

• Business Services

• Attitude of Local Authority

Office Rents by Borough

Lessons from JLE

• Policy• Integration• Accessibility• Image• Perceptions• Part of Package• Spatial Impact• Provides a Focus

Spatial Employment Forecasts

London Plan Employment ProjectionsLondon Employment Projections 2001-16

-1,000,000

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

2001 2016 2001-16 Office Share

Structure

Development

Other

Industrial

Office

Forecast Change

Office Jobs Development Pipeline

Office Employment 2003-26

Total Employment % 2003-26

Spatial Planning Working?