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Spatial dimensions of supporting rural policy in Scotland
150th EAAE Seminar The spatial dimension in analysing the linkages between agriculture, rural development and the environmentKeith Matthews*, Dave Miller, Mike Rivington, Doug Wardell-Johnson, Davide Cammarano James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen*[email protected]
Introduction• Since 2008 working in policy support, CAP and related issues• Background in farm DSS, geographical information systems, modelling• Larger datasets – integration and improvement• Progressive integration of administrative and science based datasets
• Sources and integrations• Example derived datasets
• Use of datasets in policy support• Woodland expansion – changes in C stocks and emissions• CAP 2015 reforms – direct payments and related• Social metabolism – alternative performance metrics
• Ongoing activities and opportunities
Spatial data integration
Land use/cover data: coverage and granularity
Capability vs. use
Stocking ratesLand use + stock numbers (Census)Field or Holding levelVarying reliability
Change in carbon stocks
ECOSSE
FMA masks
Woodlandcarbon code
Soil inputs from vegetation
Soil maps and database
Climate mapping
Land use changeIACS, LCM2007,
etc
Unique CombinationsMap and Table
Net Change Mapping and
Analysis
Change insoil carbon
Above groundbiomass
Other constraints mapping, LCA, WEAG Phase 3,
etc
Spatial Scenario analysis
Woodland expansion outputs
CAP direct payments regionalisation
Per Field Usership,
Claimed LU & Area (2)
Field Boundary
Map
Land Capability for Agriculture
Map
LCA Mix per Field (3)
Flattened Per Field Baseline
IACS Database
Per BusinessBaseline (1)
Per BusinessScenarios (7)
LFASS Fragility
Per FieldLCA Mix
for Included LUs (4)
Eligibility perLand Use
LFA Status Map
LFA Status per Field
Per FieldLCA/LFA Mix
(5)
Scenario Payment
Rates
Per Business LCA/LFA Mix
(6)
Baseline Map
Scenario Maps
Per Field Scenarios
Per Business LCA/LFA mix
adjusted for Stocking Rate Eligibility (8)
JAC Livestock Numbers
Parish data
Field & User data
Field data
Business data
Legend
EntitlementsJAC Land
Use
Several Scales
Sub-Field data Inquiry data
Holding data
Phase 1Data Collation
Phase 2Data Integration
Phase 3Scenario Analysis
Change Map
Matthews et. al (2013) Land Use Policy
10
Options analysesRegion – Farm Level – Land TypeBudget – Production WeightedPodium weighting towards permanent grasslands (+20% vs. best land)Redistribution €267M with a budget of €642M
11
Options analyses – cont.Region – Farm Level – Land TypeBudget – Production Weighted
CAP – implementation& Greening
Social metabolism
• Energy, material and value• Differentiating sources• Translation across energy
hierarchy – seJ • Emergy systems (Odum)
• Applied to• Scot Ag• CNP Ag• Scot economy• Internationally (NEAD)• External referent
Soc-met – alternatives to GDP
Alternative system views – flows, networks
Going forward• Policy support – Greening, ANC definition and regionalisation• Farm Accounts Survey integration• Regional yield modelling• Networks – supply chains (CTS and ScotEID)• Empirical agent based modelling• Collaborations for policy or science
June CensusDecember Survey
(IACS subset)
Bio-physical DataClimate,
Topography, Soil, Land Capability,
Rural Urban Classification
“Profitability” ModelRepresentativenessNatural Constraints
Black Box Process FAS+
Farm Accounts Survey
CAP Intentions Survey
CAP Adaptation Scenarios