Special Weather Forecast Bulletin for Gujarat State and Diu,

Daman, Dadra Nagar Haveli.

Bulletin No: 11

Date: 12-06-2019 Time of Issue:1320 IST

Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘VAYU’ over East-central Arabian: Cyclone Warning for Gujarat Coast: Orange Message

The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘VAYU’ (pronounced as VAA’YU) over Eastcentral Arabian Sea moved north-northwestwards with a speed of about 11 kmph in last six hours and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of 12th June, 2019 near latitude 18.0°N and longitude 70.3°E over Eastcentral Arabian Sea, about 460 km northwest of Goa, 290 km west-southwest of Mumbai (Maharashtra) and 320 km nearly south of Veraval (Gujarat).

It is very likely to move nearly northwards and cross Gujarat coast between Porbandar and Diu around west of Veraval as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm with wind speed 145-155 kmph gusting to 170 kmph around morning of 13th June 2019.

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:

Date/Time(IST) Position (Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)

Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph)

Category of cyclonic disturbance

12.06.19/0830 18.0/70.3 140-150 gusting to 165 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

12.06.19/1130 18.4/70.1 140-150 gusting to 165 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm 12.06.19/1730 19.2/70.1 140-150 gusting to 165 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm 12.06.19/2330 20.0/70.0 145-155 gusting to 170 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm 13.06.19/0530 20.9/./70.0 145-155 gusting to 170 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm 13.06.19/1730 21.6/69.6 115-125 gusting to 135 Severe Cyclonic Storm 14.06.19/0530 22.1/69.6 85-95 gusting to 105 Severe Cyclonic Storm 14.06.19/1730 22.6/69.2 60-70 gusting 80 Cyclonic Storm 15.06.19/0530 23.1/68.8 30-40 gusting to 50 Depression

In association with the above mentioned system, Gujarat State is very likely to experience an

active wet spell during the period mentioned below. The day wise forecast and warnings for the state are given below.

Government of India Ministry of Earth Sciences

India Meteorological Department

Meteorological Centre, RS/RW Building, Airport,

Ahmedabad-382 475.

Phone and Fax : 079-22865449

E_ mail: metahm01@gmail.com

Heavy rainfall Warning/Thunderstorm Warning for next 3 days

Thunderstorm and lightning accompanied with gusty wind (40-50kmph) very likely at isolated places in the districts of North Gujarat region namely, Banaskantha and Sabarkantha during 12th & 13th June 2019. Thunderstorm and lightning accompanied with gusty wind (30-40kmph) very likely at isolated places in the districts of North Gujarat region namely, Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar, Mehsana Aravali, Mahisagar, Dahod during 12th and 13th June 2019. Heavy to very heavy rains very likely at isolated places in the districts of Saurashtra namely Amreli, Bhavnagar, Gir Somnath, Junagadh, Porbandar and in Diu. Heavy rains very likely at isolated places in the districts of South Gujarat region namely Surat, Tapi, Dang, Navsari, Valsad, Daman, Dadra Nagar Haveli during 12th June 2019. Heavy to very rains very likely at a few places with extremely heavy falls in the districts of Saurashtra-Kutch namely Porbandar, Junagadh, Amreli, Gir Somanath, Diu. Heavy to very rains very likely at a few places in the districts of Saurashtra namely Rajkot, Jamnagar, Morbi, Dwarka, Bhavnagar, Kutch. Heavy rains at isolated places in Botad, Surendranagar. Heavy rains very likely at isolated places in the districts of Gujarat region namely Anand, Surat, Navsari, Dang, Valsad, Daman, Dadra Nagar Haveli during 13th June 2019. Heavy to very heavy rains very likely at isolated places in the districts of Saurashtra-Kutch namely Jamnagar, Morbi, Dwarka and Kutch during 14th June 2019.

(iii) Sea condition

o The sea condition is phenomenal over eastcentral & adjoining northeast Arabian Sea &

Gujarat coast on 12th & 13th June 2019.

o The Sea condition is very likely to rough along & off Gujarat Coast on 114th & 15th June,

2019.

(iv) Fishermen Warning o The fishermen are advised not to venture into Eastcentral Arabian Sea and along & off

Maharashtra Coast on 12th; north Arabian sea and along & off Gujarat coast on 12th &

13th.

o Fishermen are also advised not to venture into north Arabian sea and along & off

Gujarat coast on 14th & 15th.

(iv) Storm Surge Warning Storm surge of height of about 1.5-2.0 m above the astronomical tides likely to inundate the

low lying coastal areas of Kutch, Devbhoomi, Dwarka, Porbandar, Junagarh, Diu, Gir

Somnath, Amreli and Bhavnagar districts at the time of landfall.

Date Weather Forecast for next 3 days DAY-1

(Valid from 0830 Hrs. IST of 12/06/2019 to 0830 Hrs. IST of

13/06/2019 )

Light to moderate rain/thundershowers very likely at many places in all the districts of

Saurashtra and Diu; at many places in the districts of Gujarat region namely Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar, Banaskantha, Sabarkantha, Mehsana, Aravali, Anand, Mahisagar, Dahod, Baroda,

Narmada, Bharuch, Surat, Tapi, Dangs, Navsari, Valsad, and Daman, Dadra Nagar Haveli; at a

few places in the districts of Kutch. Dry weather very likely in remaining districts of Gujarat region.

DAY-2

(Valid from 0830 Hrs. IST of

13/06/2019 to 0830 Hrs. IST of 14/06/2019 )

Light to moderate rain/thundershowers very likely at most places in all the districts of

Saurashtra-Kutch and Diu; at a few places in the districts of Gujarat region namely Banaskantha, Sabarkantha, Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar, Mehsana, Aravali, Anand, Mahisagar, Baroda,

Narmada, Bharuch, Surat, Tapi, Dangs, Navsari, Valsad, and Daman, Dadra Nagar Haveli. Dry

weather very likely in remaining districts of Gujarat region.

DAY-3

(Valid from 0830 Hrs. IST of

14/06/2019 to 0830 Hrs. IST of 15/06/2019 )

Light to moderate rain/thundershowers very likely at many places in the districts of Saurashtra-Kutch and in Diu; at a few Gujarat region namely Anand, Baroda, Bharuch, Surat, Navsari,

Valsad, Daman, Dadra Nagar Haveli. Dry weather very likely in remaining districts of Gujarat

region.

(v) Damage Expected and Action suggested for Kutch, Devbhoomi Dwarka, Porbandar, Jamnagar, Rajkot, Junagarh, Diu, Gir Somnath, Amreli and Bhavnagar districts of Gujarat:

(i) Total destruction of thatched houses/extensive damage to Kutcha houses. Some damage

to pucca houses. Potential threat from flying objects.(ii) Bending/uprooting of power and

communication poles. (iii) Major damage to Kutcha and Pucca roads. Flooding of escape

routes. Minor disruption of railways, overhead power lines and signalling systems.

(iv) Widespread damage to standing crops, plantation, orchards, falling of green coconuts

and tearing of palm fronds. Blowing down bushy trees like mango.(v) Small boats, country

crafts may get detached from moorings.(vi) Visibility severe affected.

Action suggested: (i) Regulate road & rail traffic (ii) Total suspension of fishing operations. (iii) Evacuation from

low lying areas of the above mentioned Districts, coastal Hutment dwellers, urban slum

dwellers and people staying in unsafe house to safer places. People in affected areas to

remain indoors.(iv) Movement in motor boats & small ships unsafe.(v) Inundation of low lying

areas in the along the coasts due to heavy rainfall and storm surge.

Kindly visit IMD website : www.imd.gov.in Meteorological Center website: www.imdahm.gov.in The next bulletin will be issued at 1430 hrs IST of 12thJune, 2019.

Manorama Mohanty

Meteorological Center Ahmedabad

Phone no: 079-22865012 Mob. No. 09428909340

e-mail: met_mm@yahoo.co.in

5 DAYS RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THE DISTRICTS OF GUJARAT REGION, DAMAN AND DADRA NAGAR HAVELI

DATE OF ISSUE : 12-06-2019

S.NO. DISTRICT

12 JUN 13 JUN 14 JUN 15 JUN 16 JUN

DAY-1 (Today)

DAY-2 (Thu)

DAY-3 (Fri)

DAY-4 (Sat)

DAY-5 (Sun)

1 BANASKANTHA

Thunderstorm and lightning accompanied

with gusty winds (40 to

50kmph) Very Likely

Thunderstorm and lightning accompanied

with gusty winds (40 to

50kmph) Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

2 PATAN Dry

Very Likely Dry

Very Likely Dry

Very Likely Dry

Very Likely Dry

Very Likely

3 MEHSANA

Thunderstorm and lightning accompanied

with gusty winds (30 to

40kmph) Very Likely

Thunderstorm and lightning accompanied

with gusty winds (30 to

40kmph) Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

4 SABARKANTHA

Thunderstorm and lightning accompanied

with gusty winds (40 to

50kmph) Very Likely

Thunderstorm and lightning accompanied

with gusty winds (40 to

50kmph) Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

5 GANDHINAGAR

Thunderstorm and lightning accompanied

with gusty winds (30 to

40kmph) Very Likely

Thunderstorm and lightning accompanied

with gusty winds (30 to

40kmph) Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

6 ARAVALLI

Thunderstorm and lightning accompanied

with gusty winds (30 to

40kmph) Very Likely

Thunderstorm and lightning accompanied

with gusty winds (30 to

40kmph) Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

7 KHEDA Dry

Very Likely Dry

Very Likely Dry

Very Likely Dry

Very Likely Dry

Very Likely

8 AHMEDABAD

Thunderstorm and lightning accompanied

with gusty winds (30 to

40kmph) Very Likely

Thunderstorm and lightning accompanied

with gusty winds (30 to

40kmph) Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

9 ANAND Dry

Very Likely

Heavy At Isolated Places

Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

10 BARODA Light to

Moderate Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

11 PANCHMAHAL Dry

Very Likely Dry

Very Likely Dry

Very Likely Dry

Very Likely Dry

Very Likely

12 DOHAD

Thunderstorm and lightning accompanied

with gusty winds (30 to

40kmph) Very Likely

Thunderstorm and lightning accompanied

with gusty winds (30 to

40kmph) Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

13 MAHISAGAR

Thunderstorm and lightning accompanied

with gusty winds (30 to

40kmph) Very Likely

Thunderstorm and lightning accompanied

with gusty winds (30 to

40kmph) Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

14 CHHOTA UDAIPUR Dry

Very Likely Dry

Very Likely Dry

Very Likely Dry

Very Likely Dry

Very Likely

15 NARMADA Light to

Moderate Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

16 BROACH Light to

Moderate Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

17 SURAT

Heavy At Isolated Places

Very Likely

Heavy At Isolated Places

Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

18 DANGS

Heavy At Isolated Places

Very Likely

Heavy At Isolated Places

Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

19 NAVSARI

Heavy At Isolated Places

Very Likely

Heavy At Isolated Places

Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

20 VALSAD

Heavy At Isolated Places

Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

21 TAPI

Heavy At Isolated Places

Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

U.T DADARA NAGAR HAVELI

Heavy At Isolated Places

Very Likely

Heavy At Isolated Places

Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

U.T DAMAN

Heavy At Isolated Places

Very Likely

Heavy At Isolated Places

Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

5 DAYS RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THE DISTRICTS OF SAURASHTRA, KUTCH AND DIU

22 SURENDRANAGAR Light to

Moderate Very Likely

Heavy At Isolated Places

Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

23 RAJKOT Light to

Moderate Very Likely

Heavy to Very Heavy

At a few

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Places Very Likely

24 JAMNAGAR Light to

Moderate Very Likely

Heavy to Very Heavy

At a few Places

Very Likely

Heavy At Isolated Places

Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

25 PORBANDAR

Heavy to Very Heavy At Isolated

Places Very Likely

Heavy to Very Heavy

At Few Places With

isolated extremely heavy falls Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

26 JUNAGADH

Heavy to Very Heavy At Isolated

Places Very Likely

Heavy to Very Heavy

At Few Places With

isolated extremely heavy falls Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

27 AMRELI

Heavy to Very Heavy At Isolated

Places Very Likely

Heavy to Very Heavy

At Few Places With

isolated extremely heavy falls Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

28 BHAVNAGAR

Heavy to Very Heavy At Isolated

Places Very Likely

Heavy to Very Heavy

At a few Places

Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

29 MORBI Light to

Moderate Very Likely

Heavy to Very Heavy

At a few Places

Very Likely

Heavy At Isolated Places

Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

30 DEVBHUMI DWARKA

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

Heavy to Very Heavy

At a few Places

Very Likely

Heavy At Isolated Places

Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

31 GIR SOMNATH

Heavy to Very Heavy At Isolated

Places Very Likely

Heavy to Very Heavy

At Few Places With

isolated extremely heavy falls Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

32 BOTAD Light to

Moderate Very Likely

Heavy At Isolated Places

Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

Dry Very Likely

33 KUTCH Light to

Moderate Very Likely

Heavy to Very Heavy

At a few Places

Heavy At Isolated Places

Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

Very Likely

U.T DIU

Heavy to Very Heavy At Isolated

Places Very Likely

Heavy to Very Heavy

At Few Places With

isolated extremely heavy falls Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

Light to Moderate

Very Likely

(WARNING)

active Reg DIU actReg

Value ALERT actRegValue

Code _cls2w actRegCode

WS

WARNING DAY-1Wednesday , 12 June 2019

Kutch

Jamnagar

Porbandar

Junagarh Amreli

Bhavnagar

Rajkot

Surendranagar

Ahmedabad

Gandhinagar

Banaskantha

PatanSabarkantha

Kheda Panchmahal

Dahod

Baroda

Anand

BroachNarmada

Surat

DangNavsari

Valsad

ChhotaUdaipur

MahiSagar

Aravalli

Tapi

Mahesana

BotadDevBhumiDw arka

Morbi

Gir

DIU

Daman

DDNH

active Reg DIU actReg

Value WARNING actRegValue

Code _cls1w actRegCode

WS

WARNING DAY-2Thursday , 13 June 2019

Kutch

Jamnagar

Porbandar

Junagarh Amreli

Bhavnagar

Rajkot

Surendranagar

Ahmedabad

Gandhinagar

Banaskantha

PatanSabarkantha

Kheda Panchmahal

Dahod

Baroda

Anand

BroachNarmada

Surat

DangNavsari

Valsad

ChhotaUdaipur

MahiSagar

Aravalli

Tapi

Mahesana

BotadDevBhumiDw arka

Morbi

Gir

DIU

Daman

DDNH

active Reg DIU actReg

Value NO WARNINGactRegValue

Code _cls4w actRegCode

WS

WARNING DAY-3Friday , 14 June 2019

Kutch

Jamnagar

Porbandar

Junagarh Amreli

Bhavnagar

Rajkot

Surendranagar

Ahmedabad

Gandhinagar

Banaskantha

PatanSabarkantha

Kheda Panchmahal

Dahod

Baroda

Anand

BroachNarmada

Surat

DangNavsari

Valsad

ChhotaUdaipur

MahiSagar

Aravalli

Tapi

Mahesana

BotadDevBhumiDw arka

Morbi

Gir

DIU

Daman

DDNH

active Reg DIU actReg

Value NO WARNINGactRegValue

Code _cls4w actRegCode

WS

WARNING DAY-4Saturday , 15 June 2019

Kutch

Jamnagar

Porbandar

Junagarh Amreli

Bhavnagar

Rajkot

Surendranagar

Ahmedabad

Gandhinagar

Banaskantha

PatanSabarkantha

Kheda Panchmahal

Dahod

Baroda

Anand

BroachNarmada

Surat

DangNavsari

Valsad

ChhotaUdaipur

MahiSagar

Aravalli

Tapi

Mahesana

BotadDevBhumiDw arka

Morbi

Gir

DIU

Daman

DDNH

active Reg DIU actReg

Value NO WARNINGactRegValue

Code _cls4w actRegCode

WS

WARNING DAY-5Sunday , 16 June 2019

Kutch

Jamnagar

Porbandar

Junagarh Amreli

Bhavnagar

Rajkot

Surendranagar

Ahmedabad

Gandhinagar

Banaskantha

PatanSabarkantha

Kheda Panchmahal

Dahod

Baroda

Anand

BroachNarmada

Surat

DangNavsari

Valsad

ChhotaUdaipur

MahiSagar

Aravalli

Tapi

Mahesana

BotadDevBhumiDw arka

Morbi

Gir

DIU

Daman

DDNH

Legends:-

INTENSITY OF RAINFALL हिन्दी / ગુજરાતી VERY LIGHT 0.1 TO 2.4 MM बहुत हल्की वर्षा / બહુજ ઓછુ વરસાદ

LIGHT 2.5 - 15.5 MM हल्की वर्षा / ઓછો વરસાદ

MODERATE 15.6 - 64.4 MM मध्यम वर्षा / મધ્યમ વરસાદ

HEAVY 64.5 - 115.5 MM भषरी वर्षा / ભારે વરસાદ VERY HEAVY 115.6 - 204.4 MM बहुत भषरी वर्षा / ખૂબ ભારે વરસાદ

EXTREMELY HEAVY ≥ 204.5 MM अत्यधिक भषरी वर्षा / અત્યંત ભારે વરસાદ

EXCEPTIONALLY HEAVY

WHEN THE AMOUNT IS A VALUE NEAR ABOUT THE HIGHEST RECORDED RAINFALL AT OR NEAR THE STATION FOR THE MONTH OR SEASON. HOWEVER, THIS TERM WILL BE USED ONLY WHEN THE ACTUAL RAINFALL AMOUNT EXCEEDS 12 CM

असषिषरण भषरी वर्षा / અસામાન્ય ભારે વરસાદ

PROBABILITY OF OCCURENCE (%)

हिन्दी ગજુરાતી

UNLIKELY संभषवनष नहीं શક્યતા નથી.

LIKELY संभषववत શક્યતા છે.

VERY LIKELY अधिक संभषवनष વધારે શક્યતા છે.

MOST LIKELY अत्यषधिक संभषवनष અત્યાધધક શક્યતા છે.

WARNING COLOUR CODES हिन्दी ગુજરાતી

WARNING (TAKE ACTION) चेतावनी ચતેાવણી

ALERT (BE PREPARED) सतर्क रिें સતકક રહો

WATCH (BE UPDATED) ननगरानी रखें ધ્યાન આપો

NO WARNING (NO ACTION) र्ोई चेतावनी निीीं કોઇ ચતેાવણી નથી