Spectrum-Sharing & CBRS Business ModelsDean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis

Spectrum Futures, September 2017

dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean

Dean Bubley & Disruptive Analysis

Tech/telecom analyst & strategic consulting since 1991 Futurism, Forecasting, Anti-Forecasting, Policy Cross-silo, contrarian, independent Often provocative. Sometimes obscure. Occasionally wrong.

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Network Tech, Policy & Business Models

Communications Apps & Services Telecom-Futurism

Dedicated spectrum enables limited business models

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National MNO licences

B2C Prepay & Post-Paid

SubscriptionsIoT Embedded Wholesale, eg

MVNO

Non-MNO licences

Government eg Public Safety

Few corps, eg utilities, rail

Demand for mobile access by many user types

September 2017

Sensors & controls (non-mobile)

Onsite Employees & collaboration

Tenants & Contractors

Onsite Mobile IoT

Guests & visitors Safety & Security

Rethinking the 5G roadmap….

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Enhanced Mobile

Broadband

Low-Latency

IoTMassive

M2M / IoT

Enhanced Mobile

BroadbandLow-

Latency IoT

Massive M2M / IoT

Fixed Access(pre-5G)

20202017-8 2019-20 2020-22

5G Use-Cases & Probable Timeline

MNOs cannot cover the needs of every vertical

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WiFi & unlicensed bands: lessons in new business models

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Many possible stakeholders / models with shared spectrum

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Government (Telecom Ministry)Spectrum

License Fees + Coverage

goals

Government(Business / Economy)GDP & Tax uplift from

Industry 4.0

Existing MNOs

Cheaper capacity +

vertical oppos

Venue Owners

Higher rent / happy visitors & Neutral Host

$$

Industrial companiesOwned &

controlled IoT connections

(cost/risk calculation)

Niche MNO entrants

Geo-specific license for

new service / rev types

IoT solution integratorEmbedded

WAN ability in similar fashion to WiFi / LoRa

Community / decentralised

Improve off-grid locations, offer neutral-

host or mesh / micropayment

Key ingredients for “4G / 5G private MNOs” emerging

September 2017

Shared & Unlicensed Spectrum

IoT / MVNO / MVNE / Slicing

platformsSmall Cells, MEC

nodes, MuLTEfire

eSIM & RSP

Virtualised Core /

Transport Network

Cloud OSS / BSS

Number ranges &

MNCs

Roaming & Inter-

connect hubs

Devices & chipsets

& Facebook TIP, IoT connectivity specialists, blockchains, AI….

Many possible SP / MNO / VNO types

MNO in Enterprise

Macro spectrum

Local spectrum

Local RAN / DAS

Transport & Core SIM / eSIM IoT / app

platform BSS / OSS Device mgmt

September 2017 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017

Traditional MNO New PNO Enterprise 3rd-party eg vendor cloud

IoT-type MVNO

Macro spectrum

Local spectrum

Local RAN / DAS

Transport & Core SIM / eSIM IoT / app

platform BSS / OSS Device mgmt

Industrial MNO

Macro spectrum

Local spectrum

Local RAN / DAS

Transport & Core SIM / eSIM IoT / app

platform BSS / OSS Device mgmt

Fully private MNO

Macro spectrum

Local spectrum

Local RAN / DAS

Transport & Core SIM / eSIM IoT / app

platform BSS / OSS Device mgmt

Neutral host

Macro spectrum

Local spectrum

Local RAN / DAS

Transport & Core SIM / eSIM IoT / app

platform BSS / OSS Device mgmt

WAN / FAN NO

Macro spectrum

Local spectrum

Local RAN / DAS

Transport & Core SIM / eSIM IoT / app

platform BSS / OSS Device mgmt

CBRS-type spectrum sharing model could be beneficial

Many different business models IIoT & Industry 4.0 pitch Neutral hosts / Communities Opportunities for MNOs / MVNOs Various options for inhouse / outsourced WiFi experience suggests innovation unbounded

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017

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