Tomaree Business Chamber, Business Breakfast

DR ANTHEA BILL, Hunter Research Foundation Centre5 April 2018

Spotlight on the Port Stephens Economy

• Hunter economy

• Growth drivers

• Housing and demographic trends

• Conclusion

PRESENTATIONOUTLINE

HUNTER ECONOMY

LABOUR MARKET: CONTRACTION & RECOVERY

Recovery period

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:CONVERGENCE WITH NSW

AUSTRALIA: FULL-TIME JOBS GROWTH

Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey.

Annual Growth (%)

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

DEC03

DEC04

DEC05

DEC06

DEC07

DEC08

DEC09

DEC10

DEC11

DEC12

DEC13

DEC14

DEC15

DEC16

DEC17

Full-time employment

Part-time employment

PULSE SURVEYS

Phonesurveys

300Households

300 Businesses

BUSINESS PERFORMANCE: NEW HIGHS SUSTAINED

* Figure has been interpolated for June 2015

CONSUMER SPENDING: IMPROVING

Source: Bishop and Cassidy, Reserve Bank Bulletin, March 2017.

WAGES: STILL SLUGGISHWage Price

Index Forecasts

REGIONAL OUTLOOK:CONFIDENCE SUSTAINED

DRIVERS OF GROWTH2016 CENSUS

CENSUS 2016: INDUSTRY PROFILE

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

Health CareRetail Trade

ConstructionPublic Administration & Safety

Accommodation & FoodManufacturing

Education & TrainingTransport, Postal etc

ProfessionalOther Services

Administrative & SupportFinancial and Insurance

MiningWholesale Trade

Rental, Hiring etcAgriculture, Forestry and Fishing

Arts and Recreation ServicesElectricity, Gas, Water & Waste

Information Media & Telecommunications Port Stephens LGA

Source: ABS, Census 2016

CENSUS 2016:METRO VS NON-METRO

Hunter excl. Newcastle

Newcastle & Lake Macquarie

Rest of NSW

Greater Sydney Port Stephens

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2006-11 2011-16

Employment Growth

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2006-11 2011-16

Population Growth %

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2006-11 2011-16

Working Population%%

Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing.

CENSUS 2011-16: HUNTERLABOUR MARKET TRANSITION

+21,900

-13,472

-1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

AgricultureMining

ManufacturingElectricity

ConstructionWholesale Trade

Retail TradeAccommodation & Food

Transport etcInfo & Telecom

Financial & InsuranceReal Estate Services

ProfessionalAdmin & Support

Public Admin & SafetyEducation & TrainingHealth Care & Social

Arts & RecreationOther Services

Thousands

Job Growth, 2011-16Job Growth, 2006-11

Manufacturing

CHANGES IN INDUSTRY DRIVERS:PORT STEPHENS

Health Care &Social Assistance

-1,362 +1,780

HOUSING & CONSTRUCTION

HOUSING: RENTS AND SALE PRICES

Source: Housing NSW, Rent and Sales Report

0

100

200

300

400

500

Med

ian

Wee

kly

Rent

($)

Median Rent

3 bed median rent ($/week) LGA Port Stephens

Benchmark 3 bed median rent ($/week) State NSW

NSW

Port Stephens

0100200300400500600700

Med

ian

Hous

e Sa

le P

rice

($ 0

00)

Median House Sale Price

House median sale price ($ 000) LGA Port Stephens

Benchmark house median sale price ($ 000) State NSW

NSW

Port Stephens

HOUSING PRICES: LONG-TERM PRICE GROWTH

0

100

200

300

400

500

600 Cessnock Lake Macquarie

Maitland Newcastle

Port Stephens

$

Source: Housing NSW, Rent and Sales Report

HOUSING PRICES: SLOWER GROWTH

PORT STEPHENS: RESIDENTIAL APPROVALS

Source: ABS, Building Approvals.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000Re

siden

tial B

uild

ing

Appr

oval

s (no

.)

New House (no.) LGA Port Stephens

New other residential (no.) LGA Port Stephens

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17

Mill

ions Total Residential

Total Non-residential

CONSTRUCTION PIPELINE: VALUE$

Source: ABS Building Approvals

VALUE BUILDING APPROVALS

Public expenditure Williamtown, defence upgrades

PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE BOOM

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY: FIRST HOME BUYERS

HOUSING STRESS: WHAT DOES THE CENSUS TELL US?

6.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

162011 2016% Households

10.8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16 2011 2016% Households

RENTAL STRESS

Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing

MORTGAGE STRESS

DEMOGRAPHIC & OTHER DRIVERS

POPULATION GROWTH: PORT STEPHENS

Source: Census of Population and Housing, 2016.

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%

Singleton

Muswellbrook

Upper Hunter Shire

Lake Macquarie

Newcastle

Port Stephens

Dungog

Cessnock

Maitland

% Population Change 2011- 2016

Persons

Females

Males

AGEING POPULATION: PORT STEPHENS

Source: Census of Population and Housing, 2016.

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0% Age Dependency Ratio

POST SCHOOL QUALS: PORT STEPHENS1.1%

0.7%

5.8%

6.2%

20.1%

1.2%

8.3%

56.5%

1.5%

0.9%

6.7%

7.3%

22.1%

0.7%

9.2%

51.7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Postgraduate Degree

Graduate Diploma and Graduate Certificate

Bachelor Degree

Advanced Diploma and Diploma

Certificate

Inadequately Described

Not stated

No Qualifications

2011 2016

Source: Census of Population and Housing, 2016.

FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES:PORT STEPHENS

• Williamtown RAAF Base - defence & innovation opportunities

• Newcastle Airport

• Health and aged care – aging population and retirees

• Tourism

TOURISM: HUNTER

Source: Destination NSW.

$ million

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Total visitors (RHS)

Totalexpenditure (LHS)

‘000s

HUNTER BUSINESSES& DIGITAL ECONOMY

Source: HRF Centre, Hunter Pulse Business Surveys * Data not collected 2014.

HUNTER BUSINESSES: USE OF DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY

DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY:KNOWLEDGE SEEKERS?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Developing aweb presence

Utilisingcloud-based

solutions

Acceptingpaymentsthroughwebsites

Marketing viasocial

networks

Other area notalready

mentioned

Do not needto improve

knowledge ofICT

How would you like to improve your knowledge of ICT?

2015 2016 2017

Source: HRF Centre, Hunter Pulse Business Surveys

Source: HRF Centre, Hunter Pulse Household Survey

HUNTER HOUSEHOLDS: AGE BARRIERS PERSIST

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Home has internetaccess

Have accessed theinternet

Purchased goodsand services via

internet

Social networkingfacebook/twitter

Acccess theinternet frommobile phone

<65 65+

SUMMARY• Business confidence and performance• Consumer spending improved• Opportunities provided by ageing population,

defence and tourism

• Consumer spending LT subdued• Ageing population poses some risks to working

profile, need to better engage technology• Human capital development a priority

THANK YOUTHIS PRESENTATION will be available on

our website later today

INTERESTED IN OUR ECONOMIC BREAKFASTS?

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