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St. Louis DistrictLow Water Operations

Russell ErrettWater ControlSt. Louis District

November 29th, 2012

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Overview Historical Drought Overview Low Water Operations River Forecast Extended Drought & Weather Forecast

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Historical DroughtsTop 10 Low Water Stages at St. Louis

1. -6.2 (JAN 1940)2. -5.8 (JAN 1963)3. -5.6 (JAN 1964)4. -5.5 (DEC 1937)5. -5.2 (DEC 1989)

5. -4.8 (JAN 1957)6. -4.6 (JAN 1956)7. -4.4 (JAN 2003)8. -4.3 (DEC 1933)9. -4.3 (JAN 1954)

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Low Water Operations

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Critical Link

Critical Link

Illinois River29-NOV ~ 6,000 cfs

Mississippi River29-NOV ~ 34,000 cfs

Missouri River29-NOV ~ 46,400 cfs

Mississippi River@ St. Louis29-NOV ~ 79,000 cfs

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Mel Price Low Water Operations Approved Deviation to hold Mel Price 0.5 ft

above maximum regulated pool►Minimize fluctuations downstream (i.e. St.

Louis Harbor)►Extra storage is used to prevent low dips from

L&D operations upstream►Extra storage can be used to provide a pulse

of water to free grounded tows if needed

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Mel Price Low Operations

Actual W/O Mel Price Deviation

Prevented St. Louis from dropping to -4.6Avoided daily 1-2 ft

fluctuations

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Middle Mississippi River

Extended Forecast

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Daily Record Lows• 1967 - 2012: 34 days• POR: 14 days

Record Low• 1967 - 2012: -5.2 ft (Dec

1989)• POR: -6.2 ft (Jan 1940)

Extended Forecast• Dec-Feb Low ~ -7.0 to -6.5 ft

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Daily Record Lows• 1967 - 2012: 43 days• POR: 10 days

Record Low• 1967 - 2012: 1.3 ft (Dec

1989)• POR: -0.2 ft (Jan 1940)

Extended Forecast• Dec-Feb Low ~ -0.4 to 0.1 ft

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Daily Record Lows• 1967 - 2012: 31 days• POR: 27 days

Record Low• 1967 - 2012: 0.9 ft (Dec

1989)• POR: 0.9 ft (Dec 1989)

Extended Forecast• Dec-Feb Low ~ -0.1 to 0.4 ft

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29-N

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01-D

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ec-7.0

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0 Mississippi River at St. Louis Forecast

Date

Stag

e

Record Low -6.2' 1/16/1940

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29-N

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01-D

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03-D

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ec0.0

1.0

2.0

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7.0 Mississippi River at Thebes Forecast

Date

Stag

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Record Low 0.85' 12/28/1989

Critical Stage ~ 2.0 ft

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Drought and Weather Outlooks

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5 Day QPF

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6-10 Day Outlooks

Temperature

Precipitation

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8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook

Temperature

Precipitation

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Temperature(Average for St. Louis ~ 34.2˚)

December OutlooksPrecipitation

(Average for St. Louis ~ 2.4”)

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December thru February Outlooks

Temperature(Average for St. Louis ~ 30.2˚)

Precipitation(Average for St. Louis ~ 6.4”)

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Current Activities

• Dredging• Industry Coordination

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Rock Removal Information BriefRegulating Works Project (Civil Works)

Information Brief

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Problem StatementBased on the current National Weather Service forecast, low Mississippi River

stages will impact the St. Louis Districts’ ability to maintain the navigation channel at authorized project dimensions, especially in the Thebes Reach (River Mile 46-

41), in the mid-December 2012 timeframe.

Pinnacle Rock

Thebes Reach

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Rock RemovalWhat are we trying to remove?

MVS N

NThebesGrand Tower

Mississippi River

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A B CD

G

Engineering AnalysisPinnacle Rock Impacts

E F

7 areas were identified within Thebes Reach, River Miles 46 – 41, as impacts to maintaining authorized channel dimensions

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MM

U

Engineering AnalysisPinnacle Rock Impacts at Thebes Reach

St. Louis from -5.0 to -7.0A

B

C

DE

F

G

UM

M

U

A B C D E F G Probability-3.0 - -4.0 300+ 300+ ? 300+ ? 300+ 300+ 300+ 300+ 100%-4.0 - -5.0 300+ ? 300+ ? 300+ ? 300 300+ ? 300+ ? 300+ 90%-5.0 - -6.0 300+ ? 300+ ? 300+ ? 190 300 300 NONE 85%-6.0 - -7.0 300+ ? 150 300+ ? 170 300 300 NONE 70%

A

M

U

Minimally Acceptable for a 20 (4x5) Barge Tow (300 ft maximum channel or

will have less than 9' depth)

Priority removal location identifed by PDT

ST. L

OU

IS

GAG

E

AREAS of CONCERN

Acceptable Channel Condition for a 20 (4x5) Barge Tow (300+ ft wide channel)

questionable channel width to flank through bend or for alignment purposes.

Unacceptable Channel Conditions for a 15 (3x5) Barge Tow (channel

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Pinnacle Removal Path Forward• Regulating Works FY13 budget has funding to move forward with

some priority locations (subject to contract award amount).• PDT priorities include 4 locations totaling approximately 850 cy. • Current coordination with RIAC have agreed to 12/12 work day.

• Due to the low water and time of year, impacts to navigation will be minimized.

• Coincides with scheduled closure at LD27 Main Lock for miter gate installation• All parties agree this is the right time to pursue

• The Environmental Assessment and Biological Assessment are complete and valid based off our 2009 project

• Efforts are focusing on the drill and blast method, a proven methodology.

• The bedrock material strength is over 20,000 psi, ruling out other methods

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Pinnacle Removal Path Forward (Cont).

• Contract Status• At least 2 contractors interested• Pre-solicitation notice sent 5 November. • RFP out 30 November

.• Tentative contract award date is late January/early February.

• Allows 60 days for rock removal work • The current Biological Opinion does not allow us to blast outside this window

• Pallid Sturgeon spawning season• PDT is working with USFW for a potential variance

• If all priority locations have been removed and resources still available, second level locations will be addressed subject to the availability of funds.

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Questions/Comments