STAKEHOLDER INFORMATION PACK · This information pack has been produced to share summary information from analysis which has been ... • Activity data is taken from Hospital Episode

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STAKEHOLDER INFORMATION PACK

Population, Catchment Area and Travel Analysis

West Hertfordshire Hospitals Trust

March 2019


Status of this report

This information pack has been produced to share summary information from analysis which has been used in determining the potential options for the acute reconfiguration of West Hertfordshire Hospital Trust (WHHT) estate. The options appraisal is to support the refresh of the acute reconfiguration Strategic Outline Case during 2018/19.

The analysis summarised in these packs is based on data and assumptions provided by WHHT, Hertfordshire and West Essex Sustainability and Transformation Partnership, and professional advisors. Publicly available data was also gathered from Office of National Statistics and Google Distance Matrix API. Hospital Episode Statistics data was provided by Dr Foster. These data and assumptions were gathered during or before December 2018, and analysis has been conducted over the period from December 2018 through to February 2019.

The analysis included in this document does not indicate a preferred option or pre-suppose the outcome of the current shortlisting process. No decisions have yet been made regarding any preferred solution(s).


• Key messages

• Population Analysis

• Current Catchment Area Analysis

• Current Travel Times Analysis

• Expected Travel Time Change Analysis

• Appendices

Contents page


Key messages

Population Analysis

� Herts Valleys Clinical Commissioning Group (HVCCG) Population is expected to increase by around 12% over the next 20 years. The largest rate of population growth will be in the 65-85 and 85+ age cohorts.

� The greatest population growth is expected to occur in Watford and Three Rivers (13%), and Dacorum (13%). Lower population growth expected in St Albans (10%) and Hertsmere (10%).

� Each district has housing plans at various stages of development, most of these continue to develop housing in already populated areas, although there are new housing developments planned around the north and east of Hemel Hempstead and to the south of St Albans district.

� Housing plans are greater than expected population increase. Guidance from NHSI is to use ONS population projections for demand forecasting rather than local housing projections.

� Demographic growth for the demand modelling is calculated to be higher than population growth as it accounts for the fact that the elderly population are higher users of healthcare services.


Key messages

Catchment Area Analysis

� The majority of hospital activity remains within respective CCG borders, i.e. the majority of patients appear to travel to a hospital within their CCG.

� Some patients do travel out from Dacorum to Stoke Mandeville Hospital, from St Albans to Lister Hospital and Luton & Dunstable Hospital, and from Hertsmere to Barnet Hospital and Chase Farm Hospital.

� If there was a central Emergency hospital in Herts Valley CCG then the catchment population could increase - depending on location of site. (as a central hospital would draw activity from Luton & Dunstable, Lister, and Barnet Hospitals). [NB: this assessment is based on travel times/distances only and not on the range of services delivered]

� If there was a single Planned Care site at Hemel Hempstead Hospital (HHH) St Albans City Hospital (SACH) then it would likely pick up a similar size population catchment to the current two sites combined. A single planned care site on the M1-J8 could attract an increased catchment population drawing from Barnet and Luton & Dunstable Hospitals. [NB: this assessment is based on travel times/distances only and not on the range of planned care services delivered]


Key messages

Travel Time Analysis

� Average travel times from Dacorum and St Albans to Watford General Hospital are higher than from Watford, Three Rivers and Hertsmere.

� Average travel times from Dacorum and St Albans to Watford General Hospital are higher than to other (closer) Emergency hospitals.

� More people travel from St Albans and Dacorum to Watford General Hospital than would be expected given the travel times and distances.

� If patients travelled to their closest hospital by travel time for emergency activity – Watford General Hospital catchment would reduce and travel times for St Albans and Dacorum patients would significantly improve.

POPULATION ANALYSIS


Population Analysis – data sources and description

• Population estimate by Lower Super Output Area (LSOA), based on Office National Statistics mid-2017 estimates (released October 2018). Used to produce current maps.

• Population projection by district, based on Office National Statistics mid-2016 basis (released May 2018). Used to produce future maps.

• Population projection by CCG based on Office National Statistics mid-2016 basis (released May 2018). Used as basis for demand modelling.

• Note the methodology for estimating migration changed between the ONS-2014 population projections and ONS-2016 population projections, this produced a lower population projection from ONS-2016 vs ONS-2014.

• Latest housing plans reviewed from each district council and population growth adjusted for areas of expected new housing developments (but still using ONS population projections as forecast).

• Maps have been produced for 2018 and 2038 populations, along with an underlying LSOA level dataset.


Population projections

2018 population estimate


% increase over 20 years*

Population increase

over 20 years

Dacorum 154,900 174,700 13% 19,800

St Albans 148,800 163,200 10% 14,400

Watford 98,700 111,800 13% 13,100

Three Rivers 94,100 106,100 13% 12,000

Hertsmere 104,800 115,600 10% 10,800

Herts Valley 601,300 671,400 12% 70,100

Population projection by district, based on Office National Statistics mid-2016 basis



% increase over 20 years*

Population increase

over 20 years

Watford & Three Rivers 192,800 217,900 13% 25,100

* The population % increase stated in the summary information pack given out to stakeholders on 27th February were slightly higher as they showed the increase from 2016 to 2038 (i.e. 22 years) rather than 2018 to 2038 (i.e. 20 years).


Current Population heat map

Higher density of population shown by darker shades of red. Population levels shown at LSOA level.


Future Population heat map (2038) – overlaid with ho using plans

Higher density of population shown by darker shades of red. Population levels shown at LSOA level.


Demographic Growth vs. Population Growth

Demographic Growth must account for not only population increase, but also the changing demographics of that population

• Population projections for demand modelling are based on Herts Valley CCG population recognising that most WHHT activity comes from HVCCG

• Population projections for demand modelling use five separate age cohorts (0-15, 16-39, 40-64, 65-84, 85+) recognising that older people use services most frequently

• This results in a 20 year demographic growth of around 20% as opposed to overall population growth of 12%.

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CATCHMENT AREA ANALYSIS


Catchment Area Analysis – data sources and descripti on

• Activity data is shown for each point of delivery (POD), and maps are included for West Hertfordshire Hospitals.

• Activity data is taken from Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) and is the average of last 3 years (15/16-17/18) rounded to the nearest 100. From “MSOA_local_322” dataset (see Appendix).

• Activity data is provided by trust & site (not by CCG & district) so column totals will be 100% of trust activity, row totals will not be 100% of district activity (i.e. for some districts their activity will happen at hospitals outside of WHHT’s local neighbouring hospitals).

• Districts are grouped into Herts Valley CCG (HVCCG), South of HVCCG, North/East of HVCCG and West of HVCCG.

• Bold values show where activity is greater than 5% of a hospital’s activity.

• “Emergency department” activity is “Type 1” (i.e. A&E department) and includes both majors and minors.

• “Other A&E” activity is “Type 3” (i.e. Minor Injuries Units or Urgent Treatment Centres), This cant be broken down to site, so is shown as pairs of sites or unknown.


Emergency Department (Type 1)

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Dacorum 15,900 100 0 0 400 1,800 0 100 200 4,100 100

Watford 26,600 100 0 100 200 100 0 300 200 100 100

St Albans 11,900 800 0 0 5,000 4,600 100 100 200 0 0

Three Rivers 18,400 100 0 300 200 100 0 500 100 100 100

Hertsmere 8,600 16,800 0 0 1,000 100 200 300 1,300 0 0

Hillingdon 2,000 100 1,400 49,300 100 0 100 5,400 300 100 1,200

Harrow 1,400 2,800 400 700 100 100 100 37,700 1,500 0 100

Barnet 400 52,900 0 100 300 100 1,700 3,600 36,600 0 100

Brent 300 1,300 600 200 100 100 300 34,400 10,800 0 100

Ealing 200 100 32,400 4,700 0 0 100 9,900 600 0 500

Enfield 100 18,500 100 0 300 0 90,800 100 4,200 0 0

Central Beds 300 100 0 0 10,900 27,700 0 0 100 1,800 0

Luton 200 0 0 0 800 59,200 100 0 200 100 0

North Herts 100 100 0 0 28,900 500 0 0 100 0 0

Stevenage 100 100 0 0 29,200 100 0 0 100 0 0

East Herts 100 200 0 0 14,300 0 100 0 100 0 0

Welwyn Hatfield 300 2,400 0 0 36,300 100 100 0 200 0 0

Broxbourne 100 3,600 0 0 2,500 0 4,200 0 400 0 0

Aylesbury Vale 200 0 0 0 0 600 0 0 0 39,300 100

Chiltern 600 0 0 100 0 0 0 100 0 10,100 4,500

South Bucks 0 0 0 800 0 0 0 100 0 500 15,800

Slough 0 0 0 300 0 0 0 200 0 100 54,300

Other 700 3,300 2,500 1,800 2,000 1,500 65,800 2,100 49,200 22,200 149,400

TOTAL 88,100 103,400 37,500 58,500 132,800 96,800 163,800 95,100 106,300 78,600 226,500

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• Activity is average annual activity over last 3 years, rounded to nearest 100. • Columns are 100% of a hospital’s activity, rows are not necessarily 100% of a district’s activity (although they are for Herts Valley districts)


Emergency Department (Type 1) – Watford General Hosp ital


Other A&E (Type 3)

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Dacorum 22,700 200 100

Watford 1,000 2,200 300

St Albans 14,400 100 400

Three Rivers 1,600 6,200 400

Hertsmere 800 1,100 1,400

Hillingdon 0 10,900 43,100

Harrow 100 3,500 26,400

Barnet 100 0 4,000

Brent 0 100 39,500

Ealing 0 400 34,100

Enfield 0 0 28,100

Central Beds 500 0 100

Luton 200 0 100

North Herts 100 0 300

Stevenage 0 0 300

East Herts 0 0 1,100

Welwyn Hatfield 300 0 3,500

Broxbourne 0 0 3,300

Aylesbury Vale 300 0 100

Chiltern 700 900 200

South Bucks 0 600 800

Slough 0 0 400

Other 100 100 8,100

TOTAL 43,100 26,300 195,900


Other A&E (Type 3) – SACH & HHH


Day Case / ProceduresD

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Dacorum 4,000 3,100 3,400 0 0 0 0 0 100 1,000 500 100 0 0 0 200 100 1,600 0

Watford 4,700 1,600 900 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 300 100 0 100 0 200 100 0 0

St Albans 3,000 2,700 2,500 0 0 0 0 0 800 1,900 300 0 0 0 100 300 100 0 0

Three Rivers 4,100 1,300 900 0 0 0 0 300 0 0 500 600 0 100 0 200 300 0 0

Hertsmere 2,000 700 400 1,500 0 1,500 0 0 100 0 200 100 100 100 0 600 200 0 0

Hillingdon 200 100 0 0 100 0 500 11,700 0 0 900 5,700 0 1,200 0 300 1,800 0 0

Harrow 300 100 0 200 500 300 600 300 0 0 300 700 0 8,300 0 800 6,500 0 0

Barnet 0 0 0 4,400 100 4,300 0 0 0 0 100 0 700 400 0 7,300 500 0 0

Brent 0 0 0 200 3,300 100 500 0 0 0 100 100 0 6,300 0 1,500 5,000 0 0

Ealing 0 0 0 0 500 0 8,600 700 0 0 100 300 0 1,900 0 300 1,800 0 0

Enfield 0 0 0 2,500 0 6,100 0 0 0 0 0 0 14,900 0 0 2,100 100 0 0

Central Beds 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,600 10,200 100 0 0 0 0 100 100 1,400 0

Luton 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 300 18,300 100 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0

North Herts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7,400 200 0 0 0 0 200 100 0 0 0

Stevenage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6,500 100 0 0 0 0 100 100 0 0 0

East Herts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3,500 0 0 0 100 0 700 100 0 0 0

Welwyn Hatfield 100 100 100 200 0 200 0 0 5,000 100 100 0 100 0 1,600 200 0 0 0

Broxbourne 0 0 0 600 0 1,300 0 0 1,100 0 0 0 1,400 0 300 300 0 0 0

Aylesbury Vale 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 300 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11,300 0

Chiltern 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 100 2,800 100

South Bucks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 400 0 0 100 100 0 0 0 0 100 400 800

Slough 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,200

Other 0 0 0 400 100 600 700 200 500 300 100 0 10,700 200 0 10,800 1,000 6,100 2,100

TOTAL 18,800 10,200 8,400 10,100 4,800 14,600 11,000 13,900 28,100 32,500 3,700 7,900 28,000 18,700 3,000 25,700 18,000 23,700 5,200


Day Case / Procedures – Watford General Hospital


Day Case / Procedures – St Albans City Hospital


Day Case / Procedures – Hemel Hempstead Hospital


Elective InpatientD

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Dacorum 1,100 900 0 0 0 0 0 100 300 100 0 0 100 100 0 100 0

Watford 900 500 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 100 100 0 0 0

St Albans 700 600 0 0 0 0 0 300 500 100 0 0 0 100 0 0 0

Three Rivers 800 400 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 100 100 0 100 100 0 0 0

Hertsmere 300 200 100 0 300 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 200 0 0 0

Hillingdon 0 0 0 100 0 0 1,700 0 0 200 700 0 500 100 100 0 0

Harrow 0 0 0 500 0 200 0 0 0 100 100 0 1,700 200 300 0 0

Barnet 0 0 200 0 800 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 1,900 0 0 0

Brent 0 0 0 600 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,400 400 200 0 0

Ealing 0 0 0 400 0 1,000 100 0 0 0 0 0 600 0 100 0 0

Enfield 0 0 200 0 700 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,000 0 700 0 0 0

Central Beds 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 900 2,400 100 0 0 0 100 0 100 0

Luton 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 4,100 100 0 0 0 100 0 0 0

North Herts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,900 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Stevenage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,800 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

East Herts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,100 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0

Welwyn Hatfield 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,700 100 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0

Broxbourne 0 0 100 0 200 0 0 300 0 0 0 100 0 100 0 0 0

Aylesbury Vale 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 600 0

Chiltern 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 0

South Bucks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 200

Slough 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500

Other 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 200 300 0 0 700 100 2,700 0 600 600

TOTAL 4,100 2,700 600 1,700 2,100 1,400 2,000 8,600 8,000 1,200 900 1,700 4,700 7,200 700 1,600 1,400


Elective Inpatient – Watford General Hospital


Elective Inpatient – St Albans City Hospital


Maternity

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Dacorum 2,000 0 0 0 0 900 0 0 0 1,000 0

Watford 2,200 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

St Albans 1,000 200 0 0 1,100 1,000 0 0 0 0 0

Three Rivers 1,400 0 0 100 0 0 0 100 0 0 0

Hertsmere 600 1,400 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0

Hillingdon 200 0 0 8,800 0 0 0 500 0 0 0

Harrow 300 700 0 300 0 0 0 7,500 300 0 0

Barnet 0 3,900 0 0 0 0 100 400 2,900 0 0

Brent 0 300 0 0 0 0 0 6,400 900 0 0

Ealing 0 0 300 2,300 0 0 0 1,400 0 0 0

Enfield 0 2,200 0 0 0 0 6,000 0 200 0 0

Central Beds 0 0 0 0 1,100 5,300 0 0 0 800 0

Luton 0 0 0 0 0 13,900 0 0 0 0 0

North Herts 0 0 0 0 2,200 100 0 0 0 0 0

Stevenage 0 0 0 0 2,200 0 0 0 0 0 0

East Herts 0 0 0 0 1,100 0 0 0 0 0 0

Welwyn Hatfield 0 300 0 0 2,100 0 0 0 0 0 0

Broxbourne 0 500 0 0 200 0 300 0 0 0 0

Aylesbury Vale 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5,900 0

Chiltern 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,800 100

South Bucks 0 0 0 200 0 0 0 0 0 200 400

Slough 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,800

Other 0 800 0 300 0 200 3,800 0 1,800 4,900 900

TOTAL 7,900 10,400 300 12,000 10,200 21,400 10,300 16,400 6,200 14,500 3,100


Maternity – Watford General Hospital


Non Elective (excluding Maternity)

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Dacorum 9,500 0 0 0 200 1,000 0 0 100 1,400 0

Watford 9,000 0 0 0 100 0 0 100 0 0 0

St Albans 6,500 100 0 0 1,400 2,600 0 0 100 0 0

Three Rivers 7,600 0 0 100 100 0 0 200 0 0 0

Hertsmere 3,400 3,200 0 0 200 0 0 100 300 0 0

Hillingdon 700 0 700 19,900 0 0 0 2,500 100 0 100

Harrow 400 500 200 300 0 0 0 16,500 300 0 0

Barnet 100 10,000 0 0 0 0 300 1,400 7,100 0 0

Brent 100 200 400 0 0 0 0 14,200 2,100 0 0

Ealing 0 0 16,500 1,700 0 0 0 4,000 100 0 0

Enfield 0 3,800 0 0 0 0 18,500 0 1,200 0 0

Central Beds 100 0 0 0 3,900 12,000 0 0 0 600 0

Luton 0 0 0 0 500 24,200 0 0 100 0 0

North Herts 0 0 0 0 10,700 200 0 0 0 0 0

Stevenage 0 0 0 0 9,400 0 0 0 0 0 0

East Herts 0 0 0 0 4,600 0 0 0 0 0 0

Welwyn Hatfield 100 500 0 0 9,400 100 0 0 100 0 0

Broxbourne 0 900 0 0 900 0 1,300 0 100 0 0

Aylesbury Vale 0 0 0 0 0 300 0 0 0 11,000 0

Chiltern 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4,100 700

South Bucks 0 0 0 300 0 0 0 0 0 300 2,100

Slough 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 100 0 0 6,000

Other 0 300 800 400 600 700 11,000 500 8,900 9,300 5,600

TOTAL 37,700 19,700 18,600 22,900 41,900 41,300 31,200 39,700 20,600 26,800 14,600


Non Elective (excluding Maternity) – Watford General Hospital


Outpatient

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Dacorum 34,600 27,500 76,900 400 100 100 0 100 400 2,100 12,800 7,300 700 100 1,100 600 3,900 400 27,600 0

Watford 95,300 9,000 6,700 700 300 100 100 0 900 400 1,000 5,200 1,900 100 2,000 100 3,300 500 500 0

St Albans 24,200 58,700 23,600 1,900 100 500 0 1,800 100 13,000 21,800 6,100 200 200 800 10,000 4,900 400 500 0

Three Rivers 72,700 8,400 8,100 500 500 100 100 0 4,600 500 1,000 7,400 6,900 0 3,500 100 3,100 700 800 200

Hertsmere 34,400 4,900 3,000 48,200 300 9,100 100 300 400 1,500 700 3,700 900 1,800 2,400 1,400 19,500 600 200 0

Hillingdon 6,600 400 400 100 4,300 0 11,200 0 259,400 100 100 13,600 39,900 100 19,600 0 4,800 3,000 300 1,300

Harrow 7,000 400 400 10,700 26,300 1,100 5,700 0 7,700 100 100 7,700 5,800 400 157,100 0 21,300 15,200 100 0

Barnet 1,300 100 100 149,500 3,200 21,100 400 0 200 300 100 1,800 100 10,400 8,900 100 276,200 1,700 100 0

Brent 600 0 0 4,900 95,500 900 6,200 0 1,100 100 100 3,100 400 700 113,200 0 73,400 12,000 100 0

Ealing 200 0 0 200 18,700 100 170,400 0 27,900 0 0 1,900 1,500 200 35,600 0 6,700 4,100 100 200

Enfield 100 0 0 45,400 100 104,300 0 100 0 500 100 300 0 261,800 400 300 64,500 500 100 0

Central Beds 600 800 900 200 0 100 0 2,200 0 51,000 122,300 3,400 0 0 400 5,000 2,700 400 23,200 0

Luton 400 1,000 700 100 100 0 0 200 100 6,300 243,700 3,500 0 100 500 400 3,300 200 500 0

North Herts 200 500 200 300 0 100 0 6,600 0 142,900 3,300 1,900 0 100 200 16,600 1,900 200 100 0

Stevenage 100 300 100 300 0 200 0 6,200 0 122,800 1,400 1,600 0 100 200 12,700 1,400 100 0 0

East Herts 100 200 100 800 0 1,000 0 24,800 0 51,100 500 1,200 0 2,400 200 25,700 2,700 200 0 0

Welwyn Hatfield 800 2,000 600 5,600 0 3,400 0 17,200 0 65,200 1,400 2,100 0 900 300 70,900 4,800 200 100 0

Broxbourne 100 100 0 11,500 0 22,300 0 11,400 0 20,000 500 600 0 19,700 100 12,000 9,100 200 0 0

Aylesbury Vale 300 200 400 100 0 0 0 0 200 100 4,000 300 100 0 100 0 700 300 188,300 100

Chiltern 900 200 800 0 100 0 0 0 1,100 0 200 1,700 400 0 300 0 800 200 31,200 2,800

South Bucks 100 0 0 0 100 0 200 0 6,600 0 0 1,600 1,200 0 400 0 500 200 4,600 15,200

Slough 0 0 0 0 100 0 300 0 1,800 0 0 1,100 100 0 400 0 700 100 500 54,100

Other 600 100 200 8,700 4,100 10,200 13,400 1,700 6,800 9,000 8,600 3,200 700 221,100 8,000 1,400 396,200 5,700 82,900 32,900

TOTAL 281,200 114,900 123,300 290,200 154,000 174,600 208,400 72,900 319,500 487,000 423,800 80,400 60,900 520,200 355,500 157,600 906,500 47,000 362,000 106,900


Outpatient – Watford General Hospital


Outpatient – St Albans City Hospital


Outpatient – Hemel Hempstead Hospital

TRAVEL TIME ANALYSIS


Travel Time Analysis – data sources and description

• Travel times are taken from Google Distance Matrix (an API which allows the user to pull near real time travel information used by Google Maps).

• Travel times have been taken for different geographical areas (Lower Super Output Area [LSOA] and Middle Super Output Area [MSOA]) to all local hospitals and potential greenfield sites (see Appendix).

• Travel times are based upon three modes of transport (“busy road” = 90th percentile of road journey times, “average road” = median for road journey times and “public transport”).

• MSOA travel times are based upon three times of the week: Tuesday morning at 8am, Thursday midday at 12pm, and Saturday afternoon at 2pm. LSOA travel times are based upon a Tuesday morning at 8am.

• Travel times shown in this section are from two datasets:• The Herts Valley CCG analysis is based upon LSOAs within Herts Valley CCG (these are

shown in the HVCCG LSOAs dataset - see Appendix)• The local districts analysis is based upon MSOAs where activity travels to local hospitals

(these are show in the “MSOA_local_322” dataset – see Appendix).


Travel times to local hospitals for HVCCG districts (minutes)NORMAL ROAD (median)

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Dacorum 37 41 52 52 28 56 37 53 26 12 45 41 27 18 18 23

Watford 12 33 40 49 28 34 47 42 29 24 40 34 20 14 17 14

St Albans 38 29 55 32 24 54 55 55 13 23 24 32 18 23 16 16

Three Rivers 18 35 36 51 32 36 48 38 32 26 42 37 24 16 20 18

Hertsmere 26 18 50 36 31 36 54 51 28 29 26 25 17 22 20 16

Dacorum 25 31 38 41 23 43 31 38 19 11 33 32 19 14 12 16

Watford 10 27 31 40 26 29 40 33 23 21 32 30 17 13 15 13

St Albans 27 25 42 28 22 41 45 43 11 20 20 28 15 20 14 14

Three Rivers 14 29 28 43 29 30 41 30 25 23 35 33 20 14 18 16

Hertsmere 21 15 41 33 29 28 46 42 24 25 24 22 16 20 18 15

Dacorum 26 31 36 40 23 45 30 37 19 11 33 32 19 13 12 16

Watford 11 27 30 40 26 32 39 32 23 22 32 30 18 14 15 13

St Albans 28 25 40 27 22 45 45 42 11 20 20 28 16 20 14 14

Three Rivers 14 29 27 43 29 32 40 29 26 23 35 33 21 14 18 16

Hertsmere 22 15 39 32 29 31 45 40 24 25 24 22 15 20 18 15

Tues 8am

Thurs 12pm

Sat 2pm


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Dacorum 55 56 77 71 38 83 49 75 37 14 63 55 37 24 26 32

Watford 16 47 60 72 37 48 63 61 41 34 61 46 28 18 24 21

St Albans 56 39 78 41 32 79 72 78 18 30 33 44 25 30 22 22

Three Rivers 24 48 53 72 42 51 63 53 44 35 59 49 32 22 28 24

Hertsmere 38 25 72 44 40 54 71 72 39 41 34 34 22 30 26 23

Dacorum 32 38 48 51 28 56 37 47 22 12 42 38 22 16 14 20

Watford 13 35 40 53 33 38 49 40 28 27 44 37 22 16 19 17

St Albans 35 30 53 33 27 55 55 52 12 23 24 33 18 24 16 17

Three Rivers 16 36 36 54 36 38 49 36 30 28 45 39 24 17 21 20

Hertsmere 27 18 51 39 35 38 57 51 29 30 29 27 17 25 22 18

Dacorum 34 37 45 51 28 62 36 46 23 13 43 38 23 16 14 20

Watford 13 36 37 53 32 44 49 39 30 27 45 38 22 16 19 17

St Albans 38 29 50 32 26 61 55 51 12 23 24 35 19 24 17 17

Three Rivers 17 35 33 54 35 42 48 36 32 29 46 39 25 17 22 21

Hertsmere 29 18 48 38 34 43 56 50 29 29 29 27 17 25 21 18

Tues 8am

Thurs 12pm

Sat 2pm

Travel times to local hospitals for HVCCG districts (minutes)BUSY ROAD (90 th percentile)


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Dacorum 71 113 109 133 101 73 99 151 57 33 107 130 78 41 51 74

Watford 32 97 80 116 118 52 107 123 69 58 99 111 56 30 63 39

St Albans 84 79 117 102 75 86 148 142 37 67 66 95 54 81 63 46

Three Rivers 42 104 83 126 138 54 99 119 92 79 118 124 85 50 85 71

Hertsmere 69 52 106 105 98 74 131 123 67 87 72 81 55 69 85 66

Dacorum 70 109 109 119 91 79 97 147 53 31 102 125 86 43 50 71

Watford 26 92 78 108 112 51 106 110 61 55 93 110 56 27 58 35

St Albans 77 71 113 102 75 80 150 144 33 61 58 94 52 75 60 40

Three Rivers 38 100 73 126 127 51 100 109 83 72 112 125 77 47 81 65

Hertsmere 63 50 105 105 94 71 140 131 66 88 72 73 55 69 85 70

Dacorum 66 112 101 121 92 81 101 142 51 31 105 135 83 46 48 71

Watford 26 94 74 112 114 56 111 107 65 56 98 120 50 29 59 36

St Albans 79 85 115 104 77 85 147 147 34 59 67 94 54 75 61 39

Three Rivers 39 105 75 132 137 55 101 110 89 72 117 137 76 49 79 64

Hertsmere 65 49 113 107 113 81 144 138 67 88 84 81 51 60 86 68

Tues 8am

Thurs 12pm

Sat 2pm

Travel times to local hospitals for HVCCG districts (minutes)PUBLIC TRANSPORT


Travel times to local hospitals from local district s (minutes)NORMAL ROAD (median) - Tues 8am

Chase Farm Hospital Wa

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Dacorum 38 41 52 52 29 56 37 53 26 12 45 41

Watford 12 33 40 49 28 34 46 42 29 24 39 34

St Albans 37 29 54 32 24 53 54 55 13 22 24 32

Three Rivers 17 36 37 52 33 36 49 38 32 27 43 38

Hertsmere 26 18 50 35 31 35 54 51 28 29 27 25

Hillingdon 37 50 15 67 48 35 55 27 48 42 59 53

Harrow 27 34 39 52 44 12 63 43 44 42 43 45

Barnet 31 20 54 42 37 31 60 56 37 35 33 28

Brent 33 36 40 53 42 19 65 43 42 40 45 46

Ealing 42 48 26 65 50 25 59 33 50 46 57 57

Enfield 50 30 66 48 47 58 68 66 45 46 40 18

Central Bedfordshire 59 55 75 39 27 72 55 76 47 46 53 58

Luton 46 49 64 35 13 62 54 65 36 37 47 50

North Hertfordshire 64 44 78 15 42 73 74 79 48 54 37 51

Stevenage 60 35 74 11 44 67 76 75 42 49 28 42

East Hertfordshire 66 45 78 38 59 74 81 79 52 58 31 45

Welwyn Hatfield 47 21 61 22 36 54 64 62 26 35 11 27

Broxbourne 55 36 69 40 50 67 71 69 45 49 26 30

Aylesbury Vale 65 67 67 74 43 81 22 64 55 41 73 68

Chiltern 39 48 38 65 43 56 28 35 42 30 57 49

South Bucks 38 47 22 64 43 45 41 14 43 37 56 48

Slough 46 54 23 70 49 52 51 13 49 43 62 54



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Dacorum 55 56 76 70 38 82 48 76 38 14 63 54

Watford 16 46 61 71 38 48 60 61 41 35 55 46

St Albans 53 39 78 41 32 79 72 78 17 30 33 44

Three Rivers 23 49 53 72 43 50 64 53 45 36 60 49

Hertsmere 37 24 72 44 40 54 71 72 39 40 34 34

Hillingdon 49 67 22 91 61 51 72 36 62 55 82 68

Harrow 39 51 57 70 60 18 84 61 60 59 62 65

Barnet 44 29 76 56 47 48 78 77 50 48 46 38

Brent 47 55 57 75 55 28 84 59 56 55 66 67

Ealing 57 70 38 91 64 38 75 45 64 61 82 76

Enfield 72 42 89 64 63 84 89 89 64 63 55 24


Luton 66 67 88 48 18 87 69 88 51 52 65 67


Stevenage 85 45 99 15 61 96 99 99 55 65 36 56


Welwyn Hatfield 69 27 85 28 48 83 84 85 33 49 12 37

Broxbourne 78 50 92 52 67 98 92 92 62 67 33 42

Aylesbury Vale 89 88 89 95 57 111 27 81 71 53 101 88

Chiltern 52 63 53 89 55 78 34 44 55 36 81 62

South Bucks 52 61 31 88 53 65 52 18 55 47 80 60

Slough 63 69 31 96 61 75 66 17 62 56 87 69

Travel times to local hospitals from local district s (minutes)BUSY ROAD (90 th percentile) - Tues 8am



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Dacorum 68 110 107 125 97 70 96 146 53 30 104 127

Watford 33 97 81 111 119 52 105 125 68 58 95 111

St Albans 78 77 112 97 74 82 144 138 36 65 64 92

Three Rivers 39 103 80 124 138 53 98 117 91 82 117 125

Hertsmere 66 49 103 102 94 73 129 119 63 83 67 79

Hillingdon 84 109 33 121 137 55 115 72 124 99 122 122

Harrow 55 73 64 99 115 30 92 97 88 71 101 101

Barnet 83 40 102 88 97 65 129 115 75 87 74 74

Brent 62 74 69 94 100 34 101 91 78 72 98 93

Ealing 85 101 57 108 124 56 116 74 109 98 109 105

Enfield 96 60 119 84 112 85 143 125 105 116 82 43


Luton 108 91 135 81 35 103 143 149 63 88 83 121


Stevenage 117 88 135 35 118 99 157 135 105 124 74 83


Welwyn Hatfield 118 60 131 65 101 94 168 129 71 97 31 62

Broxbourne 113 97 131 100 132 104 162 136 123 126 93 72

Aylesbury Vale 123 166 147 181 134 120 77 171 154 129 182 185

Chiltern 85 137 91 144 152 70 78 106 111 81 142 143

South Bucks 111 131 57 144 161 87 120 44 134 113 140 141

Slough 125 132 56 141 157 96 137 38 136 121 142 140

Travel times to local hospitals from local district s (minutes)PUBLIC TRANSPORT - Tues 8am



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Dacorum 19 32 38 43 22 33 29 39 16 7 31 37

Watford 4 21 25 42 30 14 41 29 15 15 29 30

St Albans 22 22 43 29 22 31 46 45 6 14 14 26

Three Rivers 6 25 20 47 35 17 41 23 20 18 33 35

Hertsmere 14 8 38 39 35 15 52 43 17 23 21 18

Hillingdon 20 44 6 65 54 13 48 14 41 36 49 54

Harrow 11 15 17 47 41 4 54 23 26 29 31 27

Barnet 22 9 32 42 44 12 62 40 28 32 27 15

Brent 23 17 21 49 48 8 63 28 34 36 33 25

Ealing 28 29 14 59 57 9 55 22 43 42 43 42

Enfield 34 14 52 47 51 25 68 59 32 39 31 6


Luton 33 41 54 22 5 45 41 56 21 23 27 46


Stevenage 41 33 64 5 32 44 67 65 27 38 21 38


Welwyn Hatfield 28 19 51 22 33 29 59 53 13 26 6 22

Broxbourne 41 24 63 33 54 35 71 65 30 40 19 16

Aylesbury Vale 50 64 61 62 37 65 12 57 47 36 63 68

Chiltern 20 42 24 58 41 31 24 21 30 20 42 46

South Bucks 26 50 14 67 54 26 38 8 40 36 51 55

Slough 32 56 15 73 60 28 44 6 46 41 57 61

Road Distances to local hospitals from local distri cts (kms)

CHANGE OF TRAVEL TIME ANALYSIS


Change in travel times if planned care centre is mo ved

SACH + HHH(current)

SACH only

HHH only

New Site

(J8 M1)

Elective Average Time (mins) 23.2 23.2 18.7 16.7% >30 mins 24% 24% 6% 1%

Day Case Average Time (mins) 20.3 22.3 18.5 16.6% >30 mins 14% 21% 5% 1%

Outpatient Average Time (mins) 16.3 20.6 16.9 16.2% >30 mins 7% 15% 3% 1%

SACH + HHH(current)

SACH only

HHH only

New Site

(J8 M1)

Elective Average Distance (km) 12.8 12.8 11.5 10.7%>20 kms 11% 11% 6% 4%

Day Case Average Distance (km) 11.6 12.2 11.3 10.4%>20 kms 8% 11% 6% 4%

Outpatient Average Distance (km) 8.9 11.2 10.1 9.4%>20 kms 5% 9% 4% 3%

• This analysis looks at the travel times and distances for Planned Care (Elective Inpatients, Day Case and Outpatients) for people living within the Herts Valley CCG border and travelling to St Albans City Hospital (SACH) or Hemel Hempstead Hospital (HHH).

• The travel times are based on median road times on a Tuesday morning at 8am taken from Google Distance API.

• J8 M1 is used as an indicative site between the two current sites with good road access, but other sites may be considered.

• The new two site scenarios (SACH only, HHH only and New Site (J8 M1)) assume catchment areas remain the same – i.e. people within Herts Valley who used to travel to either SACH or HHH, will continue to travel to the future Planned Care site, whether that be at SACH, HHH, or the New Site.

APPENDICES


Indicative new Emergency Care site locations – used in analysisThese are indicative locations/areas used for travel analysis and do not presume any outcome of the site surveys.


3 years of activity data (15/16 to 17/18) by Point of Delivery (POD), Hospital Site and geographical area.

[Note A&E/UTC data only available at Trust level not site level]

Activity Data - Hospital Episode Statistics (HES)

Hospital Sites

• Watford General Hospital• St Albans City Hospital

• Hemel Hempstead Hospital• Luton & Dunstable Hospital

• Lister Hospital

• Queen Elizabeth II Hospital (Welwyn)• Mount Vernon (Cancer Centre)

• Stoke Mandeville Hospital• Hillingdon Hospital

• Mount Vernon Hospital

• Wexham Park Hospital • Northwick Park Hospital

• Central Middlesex• St Marks Hospital

• Ealing Hospital

• Barnet Hospital• Chase Farm Hospital

• Royal Free Hospital• North Middlesex University Hospital

Points of Delivery

• AE Attendance – Type 1 (A&E) • UTC Attendance – Type 3 (UTC)

• Non-Elective Admission (excluding Maternity/Birth) (NEL) • Non-Elective Admission (Maternity/Birth) (MAT)

• Elective Admission (EL)

• Day Case Admission (DC) • Outpatient Attendance (OP)

Geographical Area (of patient home)

• Lower Layer Super Output Area (LSOA)• Middle Layer Super Output Area (MSOA)

(Where activity count is greater than 5)


Activity data was available at both LSOA and MSOA level. The following subsets of data were used for analysis (these are allshown on maps on the following pages).

Herts Valley CCG LSOAs• All LSOAs within Herts Valley CCG

• Obtained for Tues 8am, Thurs 12pm, Sat 2pm travel times

• Obtained for all local hospitals and greenfield sites.

Herts Valley CCG MSOAs• All MSOAs within Herts Valley CCG

• Obtained for Tues 8am travel time.

• Obtained for all local hospitals

LSOA over 50 WHHT • LSOAs which had an activity count of at least 50 units of activity across all WHHT sites over the three years. This was the top

839 LSOAs and covered 99.1% of WHHT activity.

• Obtained for Tues 8am, Thurs 12pm, Sat 2pm travel times• Obtained for all local hospitals and greenfield sites.

MSOA over 322 Local• MSOA’s which had a count of at least 322 units of activity across all Local Hospital sites over the three years. This was the top

1250 MSOAs and covered 98.7% of activity.• Obtained for Tues 8am travel time.

• Obtained for all local hospitals

Activity Data – subsets used


The picture can't be displayed.

Herts Valleys CCG LSOAs


Herts Valleys CCG MSOA


LSOA over 50 WHHT activity


MSOA over 322 Local (Top 1250)

Documents

STAKEHOLDER INFORMATION PACK · This information pack has been produced to share summary information from analysis which has been ... • Activity data is taken from Hospital Episode