STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04# 1 STARMAP YEAR 3 N. Scott Urquhart STARMAP Director Department of Statistics Colorado State University Fort Collins, CO 80523-1877

STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04 # 1

STARMAPYEAR 3

N. Scott UrquhartSTARMAP Director

Department of StatisticsColorado State University

Fort Collins, CO 80523-1877


STARMAP FUNDINGSpace-Time Aquatic Resources Modeling and Analysis

Program

The work reported here today was developed under the STAR Research Assistance Agreement CR-829095 awarded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to Colorado State University. This presentation has not been formally reviewed by EPA. The views expressed here are solely those of presenters and STARMAP, the Program they represent. EPA does not endorse any products or commercial services mentioned in these presentation.

This research is funded by

U.S.EPA – Science To AchieveResults (STAR) ProgramCooperativeAgreement

# CR - 829095


TODAY’S

COMMENTS ABOUT STARMAP

Background Comments Research Outputs

Publications/presentations Training – future generations of environmental statisticians

Extension/Outreach/Cooperation Meetings Learning Materials Recruiting

Plans for the year ahead Research Meetings


PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEAR:

STARMAP RESEARCH - A FOCUS

EPA released the report, Response of Surface Water Chemistry to the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (EPA/620/R-02/004) Was submitted to Congress in January, 2003

Statistical techniques available for it wereseverely limited in several dimensions

Good illustration of tools we need to develop Used as presentation illustration STARMAP investigators are using

The context for model assumptions Data on which this report was based



STARMAP RESEARCH – Project 1

Combining/analyzing environmental data Bayesian methods

Extension of contingency table methods» Devin Johnson» Finished PhD, now at University of Alaska; continuing

Selection of spatial models – Andrew Merton Megan Dailey is starting work on this project Book on Computational Statistics

Spatial statistics Designing to estimate semivariograms – Kerry Ritter & Molly Leecaster How much spatial correlation in aquatic responses? - nsu Alix Gitelman (OSU) & graph methods

Originally under Project 2; work is closer to Project 1 Steve Jensen – short talk

Jennifer Hoeting (PI) will comment further




Local Estimation/Survey Methods Jointly funded by STARMAP and DAMARS Methods to improve survey summaries using

auxiliary information From design-based to model-based Major collaboration with Jean Opsomer, Iowa State U

Ji-Yeon Kim and Gerda Claeskens Giovanna Ranalli = post doc, not here right now Two from cooperating fellows from Taiwan

Nan-Jung Hsu and Hsin-Cheng Huang Progress on procedures for smoothing data from river networks

Jay Breidt will expand on this during his talk Mark Delorey and Bill Coar




Indicator Development GIS work & support is funded here SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS in GRTS sampling

Will be reported at Monitoring Science and Technology conference week after next (Denver)

Good cooperation with Region 8 and Western Ecology Division

Erin Poston, who will give a talk tomorrow, is funded here. Dave Theobald (PI) will comment further

Promising GIS tools are under development and testing




Extension/Outreach Urquhart (PI) I’ll return to this as next to the last major topic

Only opportunity to talk about outreach here


TRAINING - RESULTS

Governing RAF states “… cadre of graduates would be developed who would

have the expertise and experience in survey design and analysis needed to fill a gap in the expertise required to successfully monitor the condition of the Nation’s aquatic resources.”

Students & early career professionals Students

One PhD + 4 Masters completed 5 PhD, 4 stat + 1 landscape ecology 2 MS;

Early-career professionals - 8



TRAINING: CONTINUED

Field experience Several + ongoing All toured past EMAP sites near OSU last year All had a tour of WED/EMAP last year

Visits to other EPA facilities Theobald & Poston interacted with personnel at

Region 8 recently All CSU students attended a meeting a Region 8 in

May of this year Gitelman will comment about her

interactions with Ken Reckhow later today.


OUTPUTS

Relevant statistical research in the form of Publications Worked examples in the “Case studies” part of the

learning materials

The Generalized Random Tessellation Stratifiedsampling process

Implemented correctly in ARCView

Prediction of probability of perennialness of stream traces Add to sampling procedure by end of Program


OUTPUTS in YEAR 3

PUBLICATIONS 9 professional publications – in print or accepted

Including a book

12 in various stages of submission and review 26 manuscripts in various stages of development

Presentations 37 completed 5 more by end of year 3 To a variety of audiences, domestic and international


OUTPUTS in YEAR 3continued

STUDENT PROGRESS PhDs

Four nearing completion Three Stat One geoscience

Masters Two completed this year

One @ CSU, one @ OSU Two more in progress


MEETINGS

Graybill Conference – success Proceedings will be published as an issue of

Environmental and Ecological Statistics Friendly outlet for young environmental statisticians

Topic contributed paper session at 2004 Joint Statistics Meetings – with the Chicago Center Success

Monitoring Science and Technology Symposium Two and a half days of sessions on statistical aspects of

monitoring Half day tutorial on GRTS sampling


MEETINGS - WHY?

TRAINING Provide opportunities for students to gain relevant

professional experience

DEVELOPMENT OF YOUNG ENVIRONMENTAL STATISTICIANS Early career environmental statisticians Gain stature in our discipline

OUTREACH/EXTENSION to Statistical community – Graybill Conference Users of statistics – Monitoring Science & Technology


RECRUITING

Post-doctoral fellows Modest success – will continue efforts Giovanna Ranalli was here for four months, and will

return in October Director will continue to be active in recruiting

Students for the CSU statistics graduate program In high school advanced placement statistics

We need undergraduate majors in relevant areas to recruit for future graduate students

Urquhart visited 8 AP classes in four high schools last year More visits are being arranged for next year

Developed some dynamic graphics for power and r2

Example


LEARNING MATERIALS

Jointly funded by STARMAP & DAMARS Browser based (web access NOT needed)

To be delivered via CD ROM Substantial opportunities for individualization

Perspective Senior administrator to Implementer to Researcher

Landscape setting

Evaluation & feedback - OSU test – was positive Evaluators – state, tribal & EPA regional Article in Tribal News


CONTENT OF LEARNING MATERIALS

PROGRESS

Why Monitor? Draft completed and tested

Where to Monitor? (= GRTS-type sampling) Draft completed and tested

What to monitor = Indicators Nothing started on this yet

How to Monitor? (= Field Operations) EPA Field Operations Manuals Training videotaped in May for inclusion in this part We have PowerPoint presentations from training Student is working on this (MS)


CONTENT OF LEARNING MATERIALS

PROGRESS(continued)

… How to summarize.

Student has started on this

Case studies Several current efforts will be turned into these

Distribution of completed materials Preliminary discussions with the Council of State

Governments have been very encouraging.


DYNAMIC ILLUSTRATION OF POINT LOCATION

Strahler order 1, 2 & 3represented by tracethickness

Relative probability byorder

First: 0.25 Second: 0.50 Third 1.00

Points appear in samplingorder

Slowly at first Then faster Loops back to first point


PLANS FOR THE YEAR AHEAD

Project 1 - continue present work Expand designs for spatial modeling Explore data resulting from San Diego study

Project 2 – continue developments Emphasize small area (local) estimation Potentially valuable for 305(b) => 303(d) reporting

Project 3 - complete GRTS sampling in GIS Apply tools to develop indicators Regional species richness

Outreach – continue development of cooperation Case studies Continue implementation & testing

At any suitable venue


ACCUMULATING AQUATIC SPATIAL DATA

How much spatial correlation really is present in aquatic responses, after accounting for habitat features? Urquhart has been seeking data sets to look at this:

Streams in Virginia Ohio River – about 400 points Detroit River – 100 or so over short distance Estuaries – one in northeast Near coastal – San Diego Project

Discussed under Kerry Ritter’s presentation


FUTURE MEETINGS

Computational Environmetrics, October 21-23, 2004, in Chicago, Illinois Statistics and Environment Section of the American Statistical

Association (ASA) and The Center for Integrating the Statistical and the Environmental

Science (CISES) at the Department of Statistics, University of Chicago.

Three short courses – Jennifer Hoeting will be involved in two Jay Breidt & Devin Johnson are invited speakers

DAMARS/STARMAP in 2005 At Oregon State University Tentative dates: September 9 & 10, 2005 Advice – Content & Audience


FUTURE MEETING POSSIBILITIES

Special session for next year’s North American Benthological Society Meeting

Symposium on the interface between GIS and statistics Especially relevant as ArcGIS now has spatial statistics

components As distinct from its geostatistics modules Code is open and alterable Dave Theobald can say more about this possibility

Documents

STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04# 1 STARMAP YEAR 3 N. Scott Urquhart STARMAP Director Department of Statistics Colorado State University Fort Collins, CO 80523-1877