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State Capacity,Demographic Change
and Workforce DevelopmentState Higher Education Executive Office Conference
Summer 2007Park Plaza Hotel Boston
Stephen P. CoelenUniversity of Connecticut , Storrs CT
WISER, Holyoke Community College, Holyoke MAUniversity of Fort Hare, South Africa
2020 Vision of New England Demographic Change: The Perfect Demographic Storms I-III
This storm, like that of the recent movie, was caused by:
•Younger minority population
•Higher Hispanic fertility rate
•Higher minority migration rates
Resulting in:
•Higher natural increases in minority population
•Higher migrations of minority persons
CT: 12th Grade Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity
05000
10000150002000025000300003500040000
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
Year
Stu
den
ts E
nro
lled
CT White Enrollment CT Asian Enrollment
CT Black Enrollment CT Hispanic EnrollmentCT Native American Enrollment
If existing rates perpetuate themselves, we will obtain:
2020 Vision of New England Demographic Change: The Perfect Demographic Storm IV
Adding to the first three forces, a fourth:
•Historically lower minority educational attainment rates by race and ethnicity
CT: New Entrants to the Labor Force, by Education Attainment
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
BA Plus
Some College
HS Only
No HS
Data Source: MISER Estimates & Projections
CT: % of New Labor Force Entrants with BA or more
0.280.29
0.30.310.320.330.340.35
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
Per
cen
t
% with BA
Data Source: MISER Estimates & Projections
There will be a clear labor force problem in CT by 2020:
% of Young Entrants with a Baccalaureate or more
For all states but New Hampshire, the proportion of Baccalaureate holders will fall significantly without improvements in educational attainment 15
MA: New Entrants to the Labor Force with Some College or More
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
Time
% with BA
% with Some College
26.7%
69.5%
25.3%
65.2%
Community College AA/AS Degrees & Baccalaurate non-completers
Baccalaurate or Graduate Degree Completers
In Massachusetts, the decline in educational attainment ofworkers includes those with some college—AssociateDegrees or incomplete work toward a baccalaureate
16 For Massachusetts, while the the proportion of young with Baccalaureates will fall by 2.9%, the
proportion with some college will fall by nearly 1.4% without educational improvements
In Connecticut, the decline in educational attainment of workers also includes all, from those with some college through those with completed baccalaureates and professional degrees
For Connecticut, while the the proportion of young with Baccalaureates will fall by 3.5%, the proportion with some college will fall by nearly 1% without educational improvements
61.3%
57.0%
34.0%30.5%
Holders of associate degrees, certificates and partial work towardbaccalaureate degrees
Holders of baccalaureate, professional and advanceddegrees
17
Integrated Education—Labor Policy to Create Crucial Workforce Development1. Of Connecticut high school students going to college:
a. More than half go out-of-State to college,b. All go to a panoply of colleges andc. Few go to or graduate from CT private colleges
2. The public institutions seem to act as an integrated unit,a. doing what most expect of the various levels, andb. graduating reasonable proportions of their students
3. There is a significant brain drain from Connecticut becausea. There is too large a portion of the “bright kids” who don’t go on to any
college after high school, andb. For those who do, all too often, the brightest go out of State for college
4. Strategies would utilize the public system more
Connecticut high school students going to college: More than half go out-of-State for college
7.7%6.6%
.5%2.7%
11.3%beyond Northeast
3.8%
51.1%ut
There is a significant Connecticut Brain-drain: • too large a portion of bright kids don’t go to any college afterhigh school, and• for those who go to College, all too often, the brightest go out- of-State
Penetration of Colleges Segments into Connecticut's 1998 H.S. Graduating Class by
CAPT Math Score
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
100
178
202
218
230
241
252
263
276
293
326
Scaled CAPT Score
Nu
mb
ers
of
Stu
den
ts
No Evidence of CollegeParticipation
Likely in College, but withUnreported First College
Attendance in College outside ofConnecticut
Public Flagship Universities inConnecticut or Rhode Island
Public Selective Universities inCT. or RI (including CSU)
Public Community Colleges inCT. or RI
Private Highly Selective Collegesin CT. or RI
Private Selective Colleges in CT.or RI
Private 2-Yr Colleges in CT. or RI
Penetration of Colleges Segments into Connecticut's 1998 H.S. Graduating Class by
CAPT Math Score
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
100
169
192
207
218
227
235
244
252
260
269
279
293
314
386
Scaled CAPT Score
Nu
mb
ers
of
Stu
den
tsPe
rcen
tage
of S
tude
nts
Integrated activities of CT Public Higher Education: providing a diversity of access, opportunity, and competitionacross the various segments. The three public sectors do what is expected of them
CAPT Distributions of Public College Segments
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
Scaled CAPT Score
Nu
mb
er o
f S
tud
ents Public Community Colleges in
CT. or RI
Public Selective Universities inCT. or RI (including CSU)
Public Flagship Universities inConnecticut or Rhode Island
Perc
ent o
f Stu
dent
s
Higher Education Strategies for Workforce DevelopmentQuality of Not Continuing to College and Those at CSU & CTC are equal
Comparison of Those Not Going to Collegewith
CT Community Colleges and the CSU System
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
0.04
0.045
0.05
100
169
192
207
218
227
235
244
252
260
269
279
293
314
386
No Evidence of CollegeParticipation
Public Community Collegesin CT. or RI
Public Selective Universitiesin CT. or RI (including CSU)
Higher Education Strategies for Workforce DevelopmentQuality of Those Leaving the State and Those at UConn are equal
Comparison of Those Going Out-of-State to Collegewith
the University of Connecticut
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
100
169
192
207
218
227
235
244
252
260
269
279
293
314
386
In College, Out-of State
Public Flagship Universitiesin Connecticut or RhodeIsland
Higher Education Strategies for Workforce Development in Connecticut
At the University of Connecticut Build capacity at UConn to attract those leaving the StateStrengthen the UConn Valedictorian/Salutatorian Scholarship Program
At CSU and the Community CollegesEstablish Programs at CSU and the Community Colleges to
attract those not currently continuing after high school
And, everywhere:Implement loan interest reduction programs for students depending on
speed of completing their programs and eventual location for workInvolve students while still in college in more internship opportunities to develop student knowledge of Connecticut businessConsider entrepreneur opportunities for students who graduate from Connecticut colleges and who stay in State
1.Never give up on youth as our future2.Never use unidimensional testing measures when skills required for real-world success are multidimensional.3.Pay less attention to passing every child on a test, and more on setting opportunities and access, real K-16 partnerships. 4.Open campuses and faculty to focus on the real world,
a) not squeezing more from faculty for more dollarsb) developing capacities for the business community, WISERTrade
5.Financing, depending on: a) student speedb) utilization of educational programs post-degreec) creativity, developing from entrepreneurial collegiate programs
6.Pay attention to longer run:a) Off shoring of jobs- some jobs will go, some will stay, be decisive
and strategic about education’s role in this.
Recommendations for Higher Education in Dealing with State Workforce Capacity
Educational Attainment by Race and Ethnicity
Significant gaps in attainment among race/ethnic groups, however, occurred during the 1990’s
Gains were greater for the white population than for other races and ethnicities
12
Changes in Attainment by Race and Ethnicity
There was a small growth in numbers of white persons with completed baccalaureates in the 1990’s, but most gains came from improvements in attainment
Much of the gain for minority populations came from increases in the population; much less came from improvements in attainment
For the Hispanic population, there were decreases in participation rates in college and graduation rates from college 13
There are only two conclusions
Conclusion #1: CAPT and SAT are quite different exams
1. Correlations between CAPT and SAT are quite small
2. There are huge overlaps in the distributions of the two exams, measured bya. The Joint Distribution of the exam scoresb. The Distribution of SAT by CAPT score band
3. SAT and CAPT show different abilities to predict future success beyond high school, sometimes CAPT predicting better than SAT; sometimes SAT, better than CAPT; and sometimes they are independently useful in predicting specific outcomes
4. Therefore, it should not be a question of whether one exam should replace the other or vice versa. More information is better than less. CAPT and SAT provide independently useful information. More study should be given to which exam should be used for different purposes
SAT Performance by CAPT Math Score
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
(400
,499
)
(500
,599
)
(600
,699
)
(700
,799
)
(800
,899
)
(900
,999
)
(100
0,10
99)
(110
0,11
99)
(120
0,12
99)
(130
0,13
99)
(140
0,14
99)
(150
0,15
99)
(160
0)
Total SAT Score
Nu
mb
er o
f S
tud
ents
Scoreband 1: 4%
Scoreband 2: 8%
Scoreband 3: 34%
Scoreband 4: 53%
Students must have a valid SAT and CAPT score to be included. Scorebands are based on 1995 cut-offs from "Connecticut Academic Performance Test: Understanding CAPT Results on High School Transcripts
2.Overlaps between CAPT and SAT b.i. Distribution of SAT by CAPT Math score band A sizeable overlap in SAT by CAPT math score band
SAT Range 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8200-399 661 478 414 357 315 277 262 231 34.9%300-599 3370 2411 2092 1820 1668 1487 1440 1305 38.7%600-800 563 317 248 211 194 172 158 142 25.2%
percent remaining
Cumulative Credits over 16 Semesters: By SAT Verbal
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
No of Semesters since Start
Cu
mu
lati
ve C
red
its
200-399
300-599
600-800
SAT Range 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 percent remaining200-399 793 590 516 435 392 337 313 287 36.2%300-599 3230 2307 2012 1765 1613 1455 1412 1279 39.6%600-800 571 309 226 188 172 144 135 112 19.6%
Cumulative Credits over 16 Semesters: By SAT Math
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
No of Semesters since Start
Cu
mu
lati
ve C
red
its
200-399
300-599
600-800
3. Differential Predictive Ability of CAPT and SAT e.ii. Passing More Credits by Semester vs. SAT Components
Differences in accumulated credits over 8 semesters appear to be bigger for differences in Verbal than in Math SAT exams, but as will show on the next two slides, smaller than for comparable CAPT subject tests.
