Upload
michael-mccrae
View
23
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Intierra presentation on the state of the mining industry prepared for the Mines and Money conference.
Citation preview
Presenter: Chris Hinde
Research: Jeremy Thompson [email protected]
State of the Market Examining minings predicament
Leadership: Over 30 years of providing mining information (through two databases, consultancy, maps, conferences/ seminars and published reports) Information: Lease locations and ownership, company intelligence, drilling data, project pipeline, due diligence reports, production statistics, finance and M&A activity Reports: Quarterly examination on trends in exploration, mine development and metals production, analysis of the market and financing, and expert comment on the industry
Disclaimer: IntierraRMG makes reasonable and diligent efforts to obtain accurate information for our clients and presentations. No warranty, expressed or implied is made regarding the accuracy, adequacy, completeness, reliability, or usefulness of any information contained herein. Neither IntierraRMG nor the contributors of data to this presentation shall be held liable for any improper or incorrect use of the information contained herein and assume no responsibility for the use of the information.
About IntierraRMG
By the end of the March quarter, the mining industry had found itself between a rock and a hard place: Rock: Falling metals prices, with little prospect of an early recovery because of lacklustre demand. Hard Place: Pressure on operating costs and a heightened threat of resource nationalism. Problems compounded by the restricted supply of finance, especially for mineral exploration.
Disclaimer: IntierraRMG makes reasonable and diligent efforts to obtain accurate information for our clients and presentations. No warranty, expressed or implied is made regarding the accuracy, adequacy, completeness, reliability, or usefulness of any information contained herein. Neither IntierraRMG nor the contributors of data to this presentation shall be held liable for any improper or incorrect use of the information contained herein and assume no responsibility for the use of the information.
State of the Market: Mining
Base Metals Gloom (but Gold OK)
0100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
REAL
(/o
z)
|----100 years---|
Gold at record real-price of over 1,000/oz
Gold floods into Europe from Spanish conquests in 16th century, causing inflation spiral
1489: Royal Mint issues Sovereign (1 = 0.5oz)
1717: Isaac Newton fixes 1 at 0.235oz
USA discovered (1492)
All-Time High For Gold
Prices Stall for Coal, Iron and Copper
Mid-2012 Prices MINED
(000t) PRICE (US$/t)
VALUE PA (US$ bn)
Coal 7,700,000 90 693 Iron Ore 1,980,000 120 238 Gold 2.57 51,440,000 132 Copper 16,300 7,500 122 Bauxite 203,000 350 71 Nickel 1,400 16,400 23 Zinc 12,000 1,900 23 PGMs 0.38 38,560,000 15 Diamonds 0.032 350,000,000 11 Lead 4,000 1,900 8 Top Ten Total 9,916,700 (134) 1,336
Shape of an Industry
$1,600/oz
$70/ct ie 32 tonnes!
www.intierraRMG.com
State of the Market Snapshot: ExplorationEdition 2, 2013
FEASIBILITYSTUDIES
NPVQ1 USD13.1MQ4 USD12.7M
EXPLORATIONRESULTS
Copper assays ledby Carrapateena
project
ASSAY SHARE-PRICE ALERT
Top 35 shareprice increases
EXPLORATIONHOT SPOTS
ProspectsQ1, 2013 - 1,457Q1, 2012 - 2,467
DRILLERS LOG355 drill reports
in March
17th month fall
CAPITAL RAISINGFOR EXPLORATION
Q1 - USD470MQ4 - USD1.51B
Expert review on exploration activities and trends for the previous and upcoming quarters. Below are some highlights from this edition.
There has been a sharp reversal in fortunes during the three months to end March after the welcome improvement in financing for the exploration sector in the December quarter. After an 18-month decline in share prices from the end of 2010 to mid-2012, the second half of last year saw a gradual recovery in the mining industrys overall market capitalisation. This improvement was helped by a strengthening gold price, but metals prices, and the markets equity valuation of the mining industry, have gone into reverse this year.
FULL REPORT CONTAINS: 16 pages 11 graphs 17 tables
Drillers LogExploration activity captured on theIntierraLive database dropped to a new low in March, extending the downward trend into a 17th month, with the drilling reports from only 355 prospects. (See graph below)
Feasibility StudiesLittle overall change in new development announcements but there has been wide geographical variation. For the quarter to end-March IntierraRMG identified 27 new development projects.
Capital Raising for ExplorationUSD470 million was raised for exploration in the quarter just ended, compared with (a restated) USD1.51 billion in the three months to end-December, and USD1.26 billion in the year-ago period.
Global drilling activity continue to fall
Exploration Hot SpotsCumulative reports from all exploration activity for the quarter to end-March amounted to 1,457 prospects, compared with 2,467 prospects in the first quarter of 2012 and 1,959 in the first quarter of 2011.
Exploration ResultsCopper assays were led, for the second successive quarter, by a drill hole at OZ Minerals Carrapateena project near Woomera in Australia; this time 1.62% Cu over 1,094m at a depth of 821m. Gold assays were led by recent drilling on La Ronges Preview property in Saskatchewan, Canada, which returned 634g/t over 4.1m at 204m.
Assay Share-Price AlertThe report notes the top 35 share price increases following assay announcements, with Kidman Resources leading the list with a jump of 270% in its share price.
For the full report, subscribe now: [email protected]
SPECIAL OFFER
10% discount off the annual subscription (4 editions)
After discount: USD1,440 plus taxes
Usual price: USD1,600 plus taxes
Offer expires 30 June 2013
Download full summary at
www.intierraRMG.com
Drilling Trends
17 month decline
Drilling Reports
Drill Announcements Mar Q 2013 Dec Q 2012 Mar Q 2012
Gold Prospects 651 702 1,119
Copper Prospects 192 238 315
Silver Prospects 154 174 274
Zinc Prospects 63 72 104
Reported Ore Reserves (contained metal)
Metal Deposits Mar Q 2013 Dec Q 2012 Mar Q 2012
Gold (000oz) 23,752 15,665 50,059
Copper (000t) 1,110 5,239 8,537
Silver (Moz) 574 469 309
Zinc (000t) 2,264 872 1,901
Copper/Gold Open-Pit Developments
Copper and gold deposits that have received a capital expenditure forecast (during the past two years) for an open-pit development
www.intierraRMG.com
State of the Market Snapshot: Mining and FinanceEdition 2, 2013
For the full report, subscribe now: [email protected]
Hinde Sight Market CommentThe value of mergers and acquisitions has fallen, and the global industry's market capitalisation is back to the levels last seen at the start of 2009 (see graph below).
Market for MiningNot only have precious metals prices fallen but the index price for the six base metals on the London Metal Exchange fell during a March quarter for the first time since 2001.
ExplorationExploration activity captured on the IntierraLive database dropped to a new low in March, extending the downward trend into a 17th month, with drilling reports from only 355 prospects.
Assay Share-Price AlertThe report notes the top 30 share price increases following assay announcements, with Kidman Resources leading the list with a jump of 270% in its share price.
Metals Production OutlookEarly production announcements for the three months to end-March indicate significantly lower gold output in the Americas. Copper and iron ore output also sharply down.
Mergers and AcquisitionsThe Raw Materials Database captured a 28% fall in announced deals, and a 14% drop, to under USD12.0 billion, in the valuation.
Mining FinanceIntierraLive tracks almost 3,500 listed companies, and the funds raised by the mining sector in the quarter to end-March dropped to under USD5.2 billion from almost USD6.8 billion in the last three months of 2012.
EXPLORATION355 drill reports
in March
17th month fall
MERGERS &ACQUISITIONS
Value of metals deals drops 14%
FUNDS RAISED
Q1 - USD5.2BQ4 - USD6.8B
METALSPRODUCTION
OUTLOOK
Lower goldproduction inthe Americas
MARKET FOR MINING
Precious andbase metals
sold down
ASSAY SHARE-PRICE ALERT
Top 30 shareprice increases
Ed.2 SPECIAL REPORTS Operating Costs Open-Pit Ore Grades Regional Activity - Latin America
Expert review on all aspects of the industry, recent performance and quarterly outlook. Below are some highlights from Edition 2.
MARKET CAPITALISATION ACROSS INTERNATIONAL MINING MARKET
Market capitalisation back to the levels of early 2009
01,0002,0003,0004,000
Jan2009
Jan2010
Jan2011
Jan2012
Jan2013
01,0002,0003,0004,000
Number of Companies Aggregate Market Capitalisation
USD
billi
on
40 2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0 0
3530252015105
Resource base at inception Grade at inception
Reso
urce
base
(Moz
)
Grad
e (g/t
Au)
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Gold resources and grades at new mines
GoldRESOURCES AND GRADES AT NEW MINES
Full report contains: 36 pages 42 graphs 33 tables 3 special reports
Copper mine costs in 2012
COPPER MINE COSTS
2012
TYPE NUMBEROUTPUT('000t)
COSTS (USD/t)
LABOUR (%)
Open Pit 77 7,889 2,757 20.4
Underground 54 2,181 3,841 32.0
OP / UG 16 1,496 3,354 24.1
Tailings 2 84 4,466 20.2
TOTAL 149 11,650 3,049 23.6
Download full summary at
www.intierraRMG.com
SPECIAL OFFER
10% discount off the annual subscription (4 editions)After discount: USD3,240 plus taxes (Usual price: USD3,600 plus taxes)
Offer expires 30 June 2013
Metals M&A Activity
Metals Deals: US$11.9
billion in March quarter
(US$14 billion in Dec Q)
An Industry Devalued
20 month
decline
6 month
recovery
Copper Discovery Rates
Average Feasibility
Study Grade (Open-Pit Mines Only)
Gold Discovery Rates
Average Feasibility
Study Grade
(Open-Pit Mines Only)
Funds Raised (US$m)
Company Size (US$m)
Q1 2013 Q4 2012 Q1 2012
100 4,075 5,137 2,914
Total 5,159 6,768 5,870
Explorers 1,451 3,405 3,418
Producers 3,710 3,364 2,454
Falling total, and
smaller share
End-2012 corporate cash holdings of US$300 billion
(under US$15 billion of this held by explorers)
Regional Spending
Operating Costs Held at Base Metals Mines
Up only
12% on
2008
But Costs Soar at Gold Mines
Up 62%
on 2008
Thank You
For a copy of this presentation, contact
Austmine 2013 - IntierraRMG_p1to7Slide Number 2Slide Number 3Slide Number 4Slide Number 6Slide Number 7
Austmine 2013 - IntierraRMG_8to11Slide Number 8Slide Number 9Slide Number 10
12-20_28may