State of the Planet Do you expect to use modeling in your life/career? A. Yes B. No C. Don’t know

State of the Planet

Do you expect to use modeling in your life/career?

A. YesB. NoC. Don’t know

What is a Model?

From Andy Ruina, TAM, Cornell

System

Model

Model’smanipulation

rules

System

Represent’n Represent’nbehavior

System behavior

System’s

workings

Translate betweensystem and model

Limits to Growth Model


rules

System

Repres’n Repres’nbehavior

System behavior

System’s

workings


Humans on the Planet Population Resources Industrial output Pollution, etc



rules

System


System behavior

System’s

workings



NumbersEquations representing interactions

Graphs of how the numbers change over time

Disease Model


rules

System


System behavior

System’s

workings


Spread of infectious disease through the population

Disease Model


rules

System


System behavior

System’s

workings



Equations to represent - transmission rates- contact rates,- vaccination efficiency…

Disease Model


rules

System


System behavior

System’s

workings



Equations to represent - transmission rates- contact rates,- vaccination efficiency…

Answer questions like:How much of the population do we have to vaccinate to prevent an epidemic?

Who Can Model?

You don’t have to be a mathematician to use quantitative models!

Just make friends with a mathematician& learn enough to communicate with them…

Take:Multivariable Calculus &Linear Algebra &Modeling, Dynamical Systems or Differential Eq’s

Great Modeling Course at Cornell

BIOEE/MATH 362 Dynamic Models in

Biology

Steve EllnerJohn Guckenheimer

What Can a Novelist Do?


rules

System


System behavior

System’s

workings


The Sunderban Islands Poverty and hunger Conservation Mangroves Cyclones

What Can a Novelist Do?

Fiction can help people to inhabit a place in their imaginations. To see the ways in which the lives of the animals, the lives of the trees, and the lives of the human beings link together. -Amitav Ghosh on “The Hungry Tide”


rules

System


System behavior

System’s

workings


The Sunderban Islands Poverty and hunger Conservation Mangrove forests Cyclones

Novel “The Hungry Tide” by Amitav Ghosh



rules

System


System behavior

System’s

workings







rules

System


System behavior

System’s

workings





Huge, interdisciplinary project!



rules

System


System behavior

System’s

workings





Huge, interdisciplinary project!Model scenarios are input here

Model Scenarios: Pathways into Unknown

1. Continuation of 20th century policies


1. Continuation of 20th century policies2. Double non-renewable resources3. (2) + Pollution control technology4. (3) + land yield technology5. (4) + land erosion technology6. (5) + resource efficient technology


1. Continuation of 20th century policies2. Double non-renewable resources3. (2) + pollution control technology4. (3) + land yield technology5. (4) + land erosion technology6. (5) + resource efficient technology7. (2) + population control8. (7) + industrial output control


1. Continuation of 20th century policies2. Double non-renewable resources3. (2) + pollution control technology4. (3) + land yield technology5. (4) + land erosion technology6. (5) + resource efficient technology7. (2) + population control8. (7) + industrial output control9. Everything: (6)+(8)


1. Continuation of 20th century policies2. Double non-renewable resources3. (2) + pollution control technology4. (3) + land yield technology5. (4) + land erosion technology6. (5) + resource efficient technology7. (2) + population control8. (7) + industrial output control9. Everything: (6)+(8) 10. (9) adopted 20 years earlier.


1. Continuation of 20th century policies

Pathway 2 into the Unknown:

What will happen under Scenario 2? Double non-renewable resources

A. Sustainable populationB. Exhausted resourcesC. High pollutionD. Food scarcityE. Industry crash


What will happen under Scenario 6? Double non-renewable resources, with

pollution control, land yield technology, land erosion technology, and resource efficient technology



What will happen under Scenario 8? Double non-renewable resources with

population control and industrial output control



What will happen under Scenario 9? Everything: Double the non-renewable

resources, pollution control, land yield, land erosion, and resource efficient technology, population and industrial output control


Model Scenarios: A Novelist’s View

“It is when we think of the world that … indifference might bring into being, that we recognize the urgency of remembering the stories we have not yet written.”

-Amitav Ghosh

Intergov. Panel on Climate Change

2500+ scientific expert reviewers800+ contributing authors and

450+ lead authors from130+ countries6 years work

4 volumes1 Report




4 volumes1 Report

Fourth Assessment Report: “Climate Change 2007”



4 volumes1 Report

Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007

Third Assessment Report (TAR) was 2001


IPCC

Group I: The Physical Science BasisWe read the summary.Full report due out soon.

Group II: Impacts, Adaptation, VulnerabilityIncludes: Food, Water, Ecosystems, Industry, Health, Global and Regional.

Group III: Mitigation of Climate ChangeIncludes: Energy, Waste, Transport, Industry, Agriculture, Forestry, etc.

IV: Synthesis Report

IPCC Summary for Policy Makers

A major advance of this assessment of climate change projections … is the large number of simulations available from a broader range of models.



Model experiments show that…

Best-estimate projections from models indicate…

Based on a range of models, it is likely that…



Model experiments show that…

Best-estimate projections from models indicate…

Based on a range of models, it is likely that…

Analysis of climate models together with constraints from observations … provides increased confidence in the understanding of the climate system response to radiative forcing.

Radiative Forcing

IPCC Summary: The Language

What does “very likely” mean? A. > 95% probability of occurrenceB. > 90% probability of occurrenceC. > 75% probability of occurrenceD. > 66% probability of occurrenceE. > 50% probability of occurrence

Read the Footnotes…

Virtually certain > 99% probability Extremely likely > 95% Very likely > 90% Likely > 66% More likely than not > 50% Unlikely < 33% Very unlikely < 10% Extremely unlikely < 5%

Read the Footnotes…

Virtually certain > 99% probability Extremely likely > 95% Very likely > 90% Likely > 66% More likely than not > 50% Unlikely < 33% Very unlikely < 10% Extremely unlikely < 5%

To learn how this is done, take a statistics class that includes “Hypothesis Testing”

How Bad is “Likely”?

“Likely” > 66% chance of happening

Will you move?

How Bad is “Likely”?

“Likely” > 66% chance of happening

Will you move? How about now?

Climate Change Models


rules

System


System behavior

System’s

workings


Climate: Atmosphere Land Sea Ice Ocean


The planet is divided into a grid e.g. by longitude and latitude


The grid is thickened to represent different layers of the atmosphere


On each piece of the grid, changes are calculated for a small time step


The pieces are put back together and updated by their effect on each other


The process is repeated to cover centuries


A1. Convergent world. Rapid economic growth. A1FI: fossil intensive, A1T: non-fossil energy sources A1B: balance across all sources

A2. Heterogeneous world. Self-reliance and preservation of local identities. Technological change is slow.

B1. Convergent world, with clean and resource efficient technologies. Global solutions to sustainability.

B2. Heterogeneous world. Emphasis on local solutions to sustainability. Technology is diverse and slow.


A1B: Convergent Balanced fuels

A2. Heterogeneous Slow Tech.

B1. Convergent Clean Tech.

Global Sust.

Surface WarmingPredictions


B1. Convergent world, clean technology, global sust. solutions

How can you help?Skills needed:MathStatisticsComputingChemistryPhysicsBiologyWater AgricultureEconomicsVisualizationCommunicationArtsEducationPolicy, Law, Sociology, Engineering, Architecture, Creativity…

How can you help?Skills needed:MathStatisticsComputingChemistryPhysicsBiologyWater AgricultureEconomicsVisualizationCommunicationEducationPolicyLaw, Sociology, Engineering, Architecture, Creativity…

Do you see yourself here?

Whatever your talent,Whatever your passion,

Use them to Help the Planet

How can you help?

In the meantime:Reduce our Carbon Footprint

Low Carbon Diet: A 30 Day Program to Lose 5000 Pounds - David Gershon - $13.00 at Amazon

Documents

State of the Planet Do you expect to use modeling in your life/career? A. Yes B. No C. Don’t know