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I 5007I 5007 TATISTCIS AND RESEARCHTATISTCIS AND RESEARCHETHODS
FOR BUSINESS DECISIONETHODS FOR BUSINESS DECISIONMAKINGAKING
WU Yue AES 3048
Dai ChuQuang BCP3000
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ContentsBackgroundWhen, why we do research
Methodology
Research Objectives
Research Questions
Findings
Conclusion
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When, why we do research
Adjust current strategy
Plan new strategy
Avoid risk
Seek opportunities
When:
Time constrain
Availability of data
Nature of decision
Benefit versus cost
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BackgroundOil is input of car industryOil is input to operate
car
Car sale change each time oil price change
Car sale dropped when oil price increased
Sale of each type of car change when oil pricechange
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MethodologySecondary Data Save time, low cost and
easy to find)
Data are collected from Internet (OPEC CarCompanies and
Information Administration)
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Research Objectives
lationship between car sale and oil
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Research QuestionsDoes oil price impacts car sale?When oil price
increase, customer prefer small car?
When oil prices increase, big cars sale performancedown?
During the time from Jan 2007 to Au 2008, oil pricerose quickly,
does it affect car sale in developedcountries like US, Europe,
Japan?
During the time from Jan 2007 to Au 2008, oil pricerose quickly,
does it affect car sale in developingcountries like China, Asian
countries?
After 2008, oil price fluctuated, does it affect car
sale?
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sale?Australia Example
Oil price in Jan 03, 1997 is24.95 dollars per Barrel,and
fluctuated decrease
to middle of 1999.
Oil price stays in arelatively stable level,but increases
dramatically from 2004,31.64 dollars to 64.33 atthe end of 2006.
:Figure 1 Australia car sales
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When oil price increase, customer prefer small car?When oil
prices increase, big cars sale performance
down?
Australia Example
Oil price boomin2008 small
cars are justflying off dealerslots such asFord Focus and
Chevrolet AveoFord falcon and
HoldenCommodore stillhave a high sales
performance.
: ,Fig u re 2 To p 1 0 ca r m o d e ls sh a re s in A u stra
lia2 0 0 9
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During the time from Jan 2007 to Au 2008, oilprice rose quickly,
does it affect car sale in
developed countries like US, Europe, Japan?
Car sale declinedwhen oil priceincreased
Most of developedmarket declined
Customers dont wantto pay more fortransport due tohigher oil
price
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,increased dramatically, does it impact carsale in developing
countries (China, Asiancountries)?
Car sale increasedwhen oil priceincreased
Customers haventexperiencedconstant petrol price
Culture factors
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After 2008, how oil price impact car sale?
Shift from big car tosmall car
Small and high
efficient car saleincreases
Big, SUV car saledecreases
Customers want tosave energy, money
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FindingsCar sale declined when oil price increasedShift from big
car to small car
Customers dont want to pay more fortransport due to higher oil
price
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ConclusionsThere is a relationship between car sale and
oilprice
Oil price impacts total car sale
Oil price impact trends of car sale
Oil price is only 1 factor impact car sale, itcant clarify the
reasons of change of car sale
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Thanks for yourattentions!
