STATPAK MAY 2020 PRINCE GEORGE’S COUNTY… · up from 65.0% in April 2019. And that is Prince George’s County’s highest April Urgency Index since we started tracking this 12

Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Prince George’s County StatPak - Page 1

MARKET IN A MINUTE A SUMMARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS FOR APRIL 2020

Unless otherwise noted, data derived from Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc. (MRIS®). “Northern Virginia” is defined as Arlington and Fairfax counties and the cities of Alexandria, Falls Church & Fairfax.

CONTRACTS Contract activity in April 2020 was down 37.2% from April 2019 and was down for four of the five price categories, and the highest category had no activity. Through the first four months of the year, contract activity is down 16.5%. The average number of days on the market for homes receiving contracts was 36 days in April 2020, down from 43 days in April of last year. URGENCY INDEX The Urgency Index, simply the percentage of homes going under contract that were on the market 30 days or less, was up in April compared to the year prior. During the past 15 years, the Index has been as high as 83% (May 2005) and as low as 30% (December 2008). In April 2020, the Urgency Index was 72.2%, up from 65.0% in April 2019. And that is Prince George’s County’s highest April Urgency Index since we started tracking this 12 years ago. INVENTORY The number of homes on the market at the end of April was down 20.8% compared to the end of April 2019. The number of new listings coming on the market decreased 32.0% compared to April 2019. The decrease in inventory combined with the decrease in contract activity raising overall supply to 1.4 months from 1.1 months at the end of April 2019. INTEREST RATES 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates at the end of April stood at 3.23%, about seven-eighths of a point lower than this time last year, slightly lower than the end of last month. It is likely that rates will continue to hover near these historic lows to help stave off further declines in new contract activity. AFFORDABILITY The payment on a no-money-down, 30-year fixed mortgage for a median-priced home is 43.7% higher than a decade ago in April 2010 – but the median price is 79% higher! The payment is slightly higher from that of last April despite considerably higher home prices. The mortgage payment for a median priced home ($1,476) was much lower in April than the median rented price ($1,900). DIRECTION OF THE MARKET The full force of the impact of COVID-19 on Prince George’s real estate market was felt in April. Almost equal percentages of would-be sellers and buyers opted out of the market as new listing and contract activity both fell by a third from last April’s numbers. As rough as these numbers are, the month ended better than it began, as we saw contract activity fall by more than 40% in the first two weeks. While most market metrics were negative in April, the buyers that are in the market are serious and the average number of days on market for homes that went under contract was actually lower than last April’s robust market. Despite the significant drop in overall activity, the relative balance between supply and demand was little changed, keeping prices from falling. Historically low mortgage interest rates are helping as well. Nonetheless, we expect the market to continue to lag well behind last year’s into the summer because of the havoc wreaked on the economy by COVID-19. But as we have noted before, the region’s real estate market is among the most resilient in the county, and we will get through it.

PRINCE GEORGE’S COUNTY MAY 2020 STATPAK

McEnearney.com


MONTHLY SUMMARY APRIL 2019 vs. APRIL 2020 April April %

PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTY 2019 2020 ChangeNumber of Sales 873 743 -14.9%Fully Available Inventory on 4/30 1,490 1,180 -20.8%Number of New Listings 1,343 913 -32.0%Number of New Contracts 1,316 826 -37.2%Days on Market - New Contracts 43 36 -16.3%Average Sales Price $307,521 $345,488 12.3%Average Seller Subsidy $5,432 $6,168 13.5%Urgency Index 65.0% 72.2% 11.1%Months' Supply 1.1 1.4 26.2%

MONTGOMERY COUNTYNumber of Sales 1,101 963 -12.5%Fully Available Inventory on 4/30 2,176 1,437 -34.0%Number of New Listings 1,993 1,056 -47.0%Number of New Contracts 1,455 821 -43.6%Days on Market - New Contracts 30 26 -13.3%Average Sales Price $543,538 $590,446 8.6%Average Seller Subsidy $3,105 $3,449 11.1%Urgency Index 78.5% 76.0% -3.2%Months' Supply 1.5 1.8 17.0%

WASHINGTON, DCNumber of Sales 875 596 -31.9%Fully Available Inventory on 4/30 1,376 1,358 -1.3%Number of New Listings 1,355 858 -36.7%Number of New Contracts 1,058 531 -49.8%Days on Market - New Contracts 31 34 9.7%Average Sales Price $691,208 $734,197 6.2%Average Seller Subsidy $2,029 $2,540 25.2%Urgency Index 76.7% 73.6% -4.0%Months' Supply 1.3 2.6 96.6%

NORTHERN VIRGINIANumber of Sales 2,163 1,715 -20.7%Fully Available Inventory on 4/30 2,530 1,968 -22.2%Number of New Listings 3,179 2,074 -34.8%Number of New Contracts 2,535 1,665 -34.3%Days on Market - New Contracts 17 19 11.8%Average Sales Price $621,537 $668,187 7.5%Average Seller Subsidy $1,798 $1,715 -4.6%Urgency Index 87.0% 85.2% -2.1%Months' Supply 1.0 1.2 18.4%

LOUDOUN COUNTYNumber of Sales 564 573 1.6%Fully Available Inventory on 4/30 944 738 -21.8%Number of New Listings 977 676 -30.8%Number of New Contracts 771 503 -34.8%Days on Market - New Contracts 19 20 5.3%Average Sales Price $530,574 $582,013 9.7%Average Seller Subsidy $2,409 $2,048 -15.0%Urgency Index 83.0% 84.7% 2.0%Months' Supply 1.2 1.5 19.8%

* Note: Percentages depicted in red indicate a negative market trend; black indicates a positive market trend


YEAR-TO-DATE SUMMARY 2019 vs. 2020

Jan-Apr Jan-Apr %PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTY 2019 2020 Change

Number of Closed Sales 2,847 2,876 1.0%Average Month-End Available Inventory 1,607 1,166 -27.4%Number of New Listings 4,745 4,316 -9.0%Number of New Contracts 4,577 3,822 -16.5%Days on Market - New Contracts 53 42 -20.3%Average Sales Price $300,650 $332,955 10.7%Average Seller Subsidy $5,674 $6,198 9.2%Average Urgency Index 54.2% 64.3% 18.6%Average Months' Supply 1.4 1.2 -13.0%

MONTGOMERY COUNTYNumber of Closed Sales 3,039 3,381 11.3%Average Month-End Available Inventory 1,763 1,339 -24.1%Number of New Listings 5,725 5,023 -12.3%Number of New Contracts 4,417 3,962 -10.3%Days on Market - New Contracts 45 38 -15.9%Average Sales Price $532,200 $560,383 5.3%Average Seller Subsidy $3,602 $3,593 -0.2%Average Urgency Index 66.6% 70.3% 5.5%Average Months' Supply 1.6 1.4 -15.4%

WASHINGTON, DCNumber of Closed Sales 2,567 2,609 1.6%Average Month-End Available Inventory 1,262 1,242 -1.5%Number of New Listings 4,361 4,030 -7.6%Number of New Contracts 3,384 2,960 -12.5%Days on Market - New Contracts 41 41 0.0%Average Sales Price $703,030 $724,021 3.0%Average Seller Subsidy $2,479 $2,781 12.2%Average Urgency Index 67.6% 67.2% -0.6%Average Months' Supply 1.5 1.7 12.6%

NORTHERN VIRGINIANumber of Closed Sales 6,026 5,807 -3.6%Average Month-End Available Inventory 2,093 1,732 -17.2%Number of New Listings 9,711 8,656 -10.9%Number of New Contracts 7,859 6,930 -11.8%Days on Market - New Contracts 26 25 -3.3%Average Sales Price $595,327 $646,150 8.5%Average Seller Subsidy $2,229 $1,985 -10.9%Average Urgency Index 79.9% 83.2% 4.1%Average Months' Supply 1.1 1.0 -6.1%

LOUDOUN COUNTYNumber of Closed Sales 1,656 1,759 6.2%Average Month-End Available Inventory 809 670 -17.2%Number of New Listings 3,133 2,881 -8.0%Number of New Contracts 2,384 2,150 -9.8%Days on Market - New Contracts 30 28 -7.6%Average Sales Price $527,909 $573,317 8.6%Average Seller Subsidy $2,813 $2,397 -14.8%Average Urgency Index 77.1% 82.4% 6.9%Average Months' Supply 1.4 1.2 -8.2%

* Note: Percentages depicted in red indicate a negative market trend; black indicates a positive market trend

Year-to-Date


30-YEAR FIXED AND 1-YEAR ADJUSTABLE RATES Month-End Mortgage Rates – 2013-Current

MORTGAGE RATES • 30-year fixed interest rates at

the end of April averaged 3.23%, compared to 4.14% at the end of April 2019.

• One-year adjustable rate mortgages were 3.14% at the end of April 2019, which is down from 3.68% at the end of April 2019.

BUYING POWER • A $1,000 principal and interest

payment supported a loan of $230,357 at the end of April, which is $24,393 more than April 2019, and $39,319 more than April 2009.

• In April 2010, it would have taken a monthly PI payment of $1,027 to purchase a median-priced home – now it takes $1,476, a 43.7% increase.

• Lower interest rates have helped offset the $150,000 increase (up 79%) in the median price since April 2010.

AVERAGE PRICES • The average sales price in

April 2020 was $345,488, an increase of 12.3% from the April 2019 average price of $307,521.

• Remember that the change in the average sales price – up or down – doesn’t mean that individual home prices are impacted the same way.

BUYING POWER Mortgage Amount with $1,000 Payment

AVERAGES SALE PRICE Prince George’s County – 2012-Current

PRINCE GEORGE’S COUNTY – Detail Pages

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URGENCY INDEX % of Contracts on the Market for 30 Days or Less

Prince George’s County – 2016-Current

URGENCY INDEX Prince George’s County – April 2009-2020

URGENCY INDEX DC Metro Area by Jurisdiction Comparison – April 2020

URGENCY INDEX - April • In the past 12 years, the April

Urgency Index has been as high as 72.2% and as low as 18.4%. And we’re at that high mark now.

• The average April Urgency Index during the past 12 years is 57.0% – which is significantly lower than where we are today.

• Contract activity is down 37.2% from last April – but the Urgency Index increased from 65.0% to 72.2%.

URGENCY INDEX – DC Metro Area • The average April Urgency Index

during the past 12 years for all five of the jurisdictions we track is 68.4% – significantly lower than where we are today, which is 79.5% for all five jurisdictions.

• Prince George’s County is in fifth place this month. As noted above, it is at its 12-year peak.

URGENCY INDEX – 2016-Current

• This chart compares the number

of contracts (green line) to the percent that were on the market 30 days or less (blue bars). At first glance, it may appear that the lower contract activity also means a lower percentage of homes that sell quickly – but that’s not always true.

• Across the DC metro area, as contract activity fell in the second half of March in reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic, the urgency index actually rose.

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NEW CONTRACT ACTIVITY • As noted on page 2, the number

of new contracts ratified in April 2020 was down 37.2% from April 2019, and there were decreases for four price categories.

• As noted on page 3, contract activity for the first two months of the year is down 16.5%.

• 20.8% of all homes going under contract in April had at least one price reduction. Last April it was 23.9%.

MONTHS’ SUPPLY • The overall supply of homes on

the market at the end of April 2020 was 1.4 months, up from 1.1 months at the end of April 2019.

• Supply is higher for all four price categories with activity.

FULLY AVAILABLE LISTINGS • As noted on page 2, the available

inventory for April 2020 was down 20.8% from April 2019. Inventory decreased for three price categories.

• 31.0% of all homes on the market have had at least one price reduction since coming on the market. In April 2019, 32.5% of all homes on the market had at least one price reduction.

FULLY AVAILABLE LISTINGS Prince George’s County – April 30, 2019 vs. April 30, 2020

MONTHS’ SUPPLY Prince George’s County – End of April 2019 vs. End of April 2020

NEW CONTRACT ACTIVITY Prince George’s County – April 2019 vs. April 2020 by Price Range

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$0 - $299,999

$300,000 - $499,999

$500,000 - $749,999

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$1,000,000 and higher

# of New Contracts

April 2020

April 2019


AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS ON THE MARKET – NEW CONTRACTS • The average number of days on

the market for all homes receiving contracts in April 2020 was 36 days, down from 43 days in April 2019.

AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS ON MARKET Prince George’s County – April 2019 vs. April 2020 – New Contracts

NUMBER OF NEW LISTINGS, CONTRACTS AND ACTIVE LISTINGS • There were 913 new listings that

came on the market in April 2020, a 32.0% decrease from the 1,343 in April 2019.

• The wide gap between available listings and new contract activity has steadily narrowed during the past three years.

• This remained true in April despite the much slower market.

SOME DEFINITIONS AND EXPLANATIONS TO AID YOUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE DATA • The data shown here are collected, in whole or in part, from the Metropolitan Regional Information System, Inc, and are believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed • “Sales” are transactions that settled during the statistical period; “Under Contracts” are contracts negotiated during the statistical period, but not yet settled • “Available Listings” reflects single-family homes, town homes, new homes and condos on the market at the end of the period in question. • “Months’ Supply” is simply the number of “Fully Available Listings” on the market at the end of the month divided by the number of “Contracts” ratified that month.

RELATIONSHIP OF SALES PRICE TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE vs. DAYS ON MARKET • Initial pricing strategy is critical

to the listing process, regardless of market conditions. The longer a home sits on the market, the deeper the discount to its original list price will likely be.

• Homes settling in April 2020 that received contracts their first week on the market sold, on average, 1.65% above list. Those that took 4 months or longer to sell sold for 4.72% below the original price.

NUMBER OF NEW LISTINGS, NEW CONTRACTS, AND ACTIVE LISTINGS

Prince George’s County – January 2014-Current

RELATIONSHIP OF SALES PRICE TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE vs. DAYS ON MARKET

Resale Properties Sold in Prince George’s County – Apr. 2019 vs. Apr. 2020

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$1,000,000 and higher

# of Days on Market

April 2020

April 2019

No contracts, therefore unable to calculate days on market.


Analysis by Property Type – Condo/Co-op

CONDO/CO-OP - LISTINGS • The number of new listings for

condos and co-ops coming on the market decreased 21.4% compared to April 2019.

• The fully available inventory of condos as of April 30, 2020 increased 25.7% compared to 2019.

LISTINGS

CONDO/CO-OP - CONTRACTS • The number of condos and

co-ops receiving ratified contracts decreased 26.2% in April 2020 compared to April 2019.

• Year-to-date, contract activity is down 3.4% compared to 2019.

CONTRACTS

CONDO/CO-OP – SETTLEMENTS AND AVERAGE PRICE • The number of condos and

co-ops settling in April 2020 decreased 9.3% compared to April 2019. Year-to-date, the number of settlements is down 1.1%.

• The average price increased 5.1% compared to April 2019.

• Year-to-date, the average price is up 5.6%.

SETTLEMENTS

Condo/Co-opListings 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change

$299,999 and under 123 89 -27.6% 111 140 26.1%

$300,000 - $499,999 14 18 28.6% 19 29 52.6%

$500,000 - $749,999 2 2 0.0% 13 11 -15.4%

$750,000 - $999,999 1 1 0.0% 3 4 33.3%$1,000,000 & higher 0 0 - 2 2 0.0%

Grand Total: 140 110 -21.4% 148 186 25.7%

Total ActiveNew This Month

Condo/Co-opContracts 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change

$299,999 and under 134 94 -29.9% 498 471 -5.4%

$300,000 - $499,999 10 10 0.0% 32 40 25.0%

$500,000 - $749,999 1 2 100.0% 6 6 0.0%

$750,000 - $999,999 0 1 - 0 1 -$1,000,000 & higher 0 0 - 0 0 -

Grand Total: 145 107 -26.2% 536 518 -3.4%

New This Month Year-To-Date

Condo/Co-opSettlements 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change

$299,999 and under 85 80 -5.9% 318 318 0.0%

$300,000 - $499,999 10 7 -30.0% 31 26 -16.1%

$500,000 - $749,999 2 1 -50.0% 3 4 33.3%

$750,000 - $999,999 0 0 - 0 0 -$1,000,000 & higher 0 0 - 0 0 -

Grand Total: 97 88 -9.3% 352 348 -1.1%

Average Sales Price: Apr 2019 Apr 2020 % Change YTD 2019 YTD 2020 % Change

Condo/Co-op $176,775 $185,843 5.1% $169,488 $178,975 5.6%



Analysis by Property Type – Fee Simple Attached

ATTACHED HOMES – LISTINGS • The number of new listings

coming on the market in April 2020 for fee simple attached homes decreased 24.4% compared to April 2019.

• The fully active inventory at the end of April decreased 12.9% compared to the available inventory at the end of April 2019.

LISTINGS

ATTACHED HOMES – CONTRACTS • Contract activity for attached

homes decreased 42.3% in April 2020 compared to April 2019.

• Year-to-date, contract activity is down 23.5% compared to last year.

CONTRACTS

ATTACHED HOMES – SETTLEMENTS AND AVERAGE PRICE • The number of settlements

decreased 16.1% in April 2020 compared to April 2019. Year-to-date, the number of settlements is down 2.9%.

• The average sales price was up 11.7% in April 2020 compared to April 2019.

• The average sales price year-to-date is up 10.0%.

SETTLEMENTS

Fee Simple AttachedListings 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change

$299,999 and under 161 96 -40.4% 110 80 -27.3%

$300,000 - $499,999 113 107 -5.3% 112 113 0.9%

$500,000 - $749,999 5 8 60.0% 11 10 -9.1%

$750,000 - $999,999 0 0 - 0 0 -$1,000,000 & higher 0 0 - 0 0 -

Grand Total: 279 211 -24.4% 233 203 -12.9%

New This Month Total Active

Fee Simple AttachedContracts 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change

$299,999 and under 195 99 -49.2% 717 458 -36.1%

$300,000 - $499,999 96 68 -29.2% 307 324 5.5%

$500,000 - $749,999 1 2 100.0% 12 11 -8.3%

$750,000 - $999,999 1 0 -100.0% 1 0 -100.0%$1,000,000 & higher 0 0 - 0 0 -

Grand Total: 293 169 -42.3% 1037 793 -23.5%

Year-To-DateNew This Month

Fee Simple AttachedSettlements 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change

$299,999 and under 139 78 -43.9% 464 326 -29.7%

$300,000 - $499,999 47 81 72.3% 174 296 70.1%

$500,000 - $749,999 7 3 -57.1% 12 9 -25.0%

$750,000 - $999,999 0 0 - 0 0 -$1,000,000 & higher 0 0 - 0 0 -

Grand Total: 193 162 -16.1% 650 631 -2.9%


Fee Simple Attached $283,796 $317,076 11.7% $279,648 $307,598 10.0%



Analysis by Property Type – Fee Simple Detached

DETACHED HOMES – SETTLEMENTS AND AVERAGE PRICE • The number of settlements

decreased 15.4% in April 2020 compared to April 2019. Year-to-date, the number of settlements is up 1.7%.

• The average sales price for detached homes increased 13.7% in April 2020 compared to April 2019.

• The average sales price year-to-date is up 11.4%.

SETTLEMENTS

DETACHED HOMES – CONTRACTS • Contract activity for detached

homes decreased 37.4% in April 2020 compared to April 2019.

• Year-to-date, contract activity is down 16.4%.

CONTRACTS

DETACHED HOMES – LISTINGS • The number of new listings for

fee simple detached homes decreased 35.9% in April 2020 compared to April 2019.

• The number of detached homes on the market on April 30, 2020 was down 28.7% compared to April 30, 2019.

LISTINGS

Fee Simple DetachedListings 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change

$299,999 and under 258 101 -60.9% 254 179 -29.5%

$300,000 - $499,999 524 342 -34.7% 611 375 -38.6%

$500,000 - $749,999 129 140 8.5% 213 200 -6.1%

$750,000 - $999,999 10 8 -20.0% 24 30 25.0%$1,000,000 & higher 3 1 -66.7% 7 7 0.0%

Grand Total: 924 592 -35.9% 1109 791 -28.7%

New This Month Total Active

Fee Simple DetachedContracts 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change

$299,999 and under 282 125 -55.7% 1150 674 -41.4%

$300,000 - $499,999 493 334 -32.3% 1582 1501 -5.1%

$500,000 - $749,999 96 85 -11.5% 257 313 21.8%

$750,000 - $999,999 7 6 -14.3% 15 20 33.3%$1,000,000 & higher 0 0 - 0 3 -

Grand Total: 878 550 -37.4% 3004 2511 -16.4%


Fee Simple DetachedSettlements 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change

$299,999 and under 223 107 -52.0% 736 498 -32.3%

$300,000 - $499,999 312 306 -1.9% 997 1130 13.3%

$500,000 - $749,999 47 77 63.8% 125 251 100.8%

$750,000 - $999,999 1 3 200.0% 5 18 260.0%$1,000,000 & higher 0 0 - 2 0 -100.0%

Grand Total: 583 493 -15.4% 1865 1897 1.7%


Fee Simple Detached $337,129 $383,321 13.7% $331,777 $369,636 11.4%

Year-To-DateNew This Month


Absorption Rate by Property Type The following tables track absorption rate by property type, comparing the rates in the just-completed month to the rates in the same month of the previous year. The absorption rate is a measure of the health of the market and tracks the percentage of homes that were on the market during the given month and in the given price range that went under contract. [The formula is # Contracts/(# Contracts + # Available).] An example: The absorption rate for detached homes priced $300,000-$499,999 in April 2020 was 47.1%; that compares to a rate of 44.7% in April 2019, and the increase means the market was better in 2020 for that type of home. If the absorption rate was less in 2020 than in 2019, we have put the 2020 rate in red. This month there was improvement for just 4 of the 13 individual price categories with contract activity, and two remained the same.

ABSORPTION RATES – CONDOS AND CO-OPS • The overall absorption rate for

condos and co-ops for April was 36.5%, which is a significant decrease from the 49.5% rate in April 2019.

ABSORPTION RATES – ATTACHED HOMES • The overall absorption rate for

attached homes for April was 45.4%, which is a decrease from the 55.7% rate in April 2019.

ABSORPTION RATES – DETACHED HOMES • April 2020’s absorption rate for

detached homes was 41.0%, which is a decrease from the 44.2% rate in April 2019.

Condo/Co-opAbsorption Rates Listings Contracts Rate Listings Contracts Rate

$299,999 and under 111 134 54.7% 140 94 40.2%

$300,000 - $499,999 19 10 34.5% 29 10 25.6%

$500,000 - $749,999 13 1 7.1% 11 2 15.4%

$750,000 - $999,999 3 0 0.0% 4 1 20.0%$1,000,000 & higher 2 0 0.0% 2 0 0.0%

Grand Total: 148 145 49.5% 186 107 36.5%

April 2019 April 2020

Fee Simple AttachedAbsorption Rates Listings Contracts Rate Listings Contracts Rate

$299,999 and under 110 195 63.9% 80 99 55.3%

$300,000 - $499,999 112 96 46.2% 113 68 37.6%

$500,000 - $749,999 11 1 8.3% 10 2 16.7%

$750,000 - $999,999 0 1 - 0 0 -$1,000,000 & higher 0 0 - 0 0 -

Grand Total: 233 293 55.7% 203 169 45.4%


Fee Simple DetachedAbsorption Rates Listings Contracts Rate Listings Contracts Rate

$299,999 and under 254 282 52.6% 179 125 41.1%

$300,000 - $499,999 611 493 44.7% 375 334 47.1%

$500,000 - $749,999 213 96 31.1% 200 85 29.8%

$750,000 - $999,999 24 7 22.6% 30 6 16.7%$1,000,000 & higher 7 0 0.0% 7 0 0.0%

Grand Total: 1109 878 44.2% 791 550 41.0%


Documents

STATPAK MAY 2020 PRINCE GEORGE’S COUNTY… · up from 65.0% in April 2019. And that is Prince George’s County’s highest April Urgency Index since we started tracking this 12