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Steelhead Diversity in Puget Sound Streams ‐Importance of diversity to steelhead populations Clayton Kinsel WDFW Science Division ‐List and categorize basins monitored for juvenile steelhead ‐Summarize age, size at age and timing of smolts ‐Future conditions and likely change

Steelhead Diversity in Puget Sound Streams2‐May 4‐May 6‐May 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Median Migration Date Year Big Beef Creek, WA Steelhead Smolt Median Migration Date

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Page 1: Steelhead Diversity in Puget Sound Streams2‐May 4‐May 6‐May 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Median Migration Date Year Big Beef Creek, WA Steelhead Smolt Median Migration Date

Steelhead Diversity in Puget Sound Streams

‐Importance of diversity to steelhead populations

Clayton KinselWDFW Science Division

‐List and categorize basins monitored for juvenile steelhead

‐Summarize age, size at age and timing of smolts

‐Future conditions and likely change

Page 2: Steelhead Diversity in Puget Sound Streams2‐May 4‐May 6‐May 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Median Migration Date Year Big Beef Creek, WA Steelhead Smolt Median Migration Date

‐Likely more data to pull into this...Nooksack, Stillaguamish, Puyallap, Snow Creek?

WDFW Fish Ageing Laboratory

Katie Docotor‐NOAA (Hood Canal Steelhead Project)

Acknowledgements:

Page 3: Steelhead Diversity in Puget Sound Streams2‐May 4‐May 6‐May 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Median Migration Date Year Big Beef Creek, WA Steelhead Smolt Median Migration Date

Biocomplexity and fisheries sustainabilityRay Hilborn*†, Thomas P. Quinn*, Daniel E. Schindler‡, and Donald E. Rogers*

Population diversity and the portfolio effect in an exploited speciesDaniel E. Schindler, Ray Hilborn, Brandon Chasco, Christopher P. Boatright, Thomas P. Quinn, Lauren A. Rogers& Michael S. Webster

Life‐history diversity and its importance to population stability and persistence of a migratory fish: steelhead in two large North American watershedsJonathan W. Moore, Justin D. Yeakel, Dean Peard, Jeff Lough and Mark Beere

Page 4: Steelhead Diversity in Puget Sound Streams2‐May 4‐May 6‐May 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Median Migration Date Year Big Beef Creek, WA Steelhead Smolt Median Migration Date

Steelhead Chinook Coho Chum Pink

Fresh Water Age/ 

Juvenile Types

0 x x x x

1 x x x

2 x x

3 x

4 x

Saltwater Summers/ Adults Types

Resident x

1 (jack) x x x x

2 x x x x x

3 x x x

4 x x x

5 x x

repeat spawners xPotential Population age Structure 

(juv types*adult types) 24 10 6 5 1

Skagit River Salmonid Population Structure

Page 5: Steelhead Diversity in Puget Sound Streams2‐May 4‐May 6‐May 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Median Migration Date Year Big Beef Creek, WA Steelhead Smolt Median Migration Date

Coho

Pink

Chum

Steelhead

Chinook

R² = 0.6124

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

CV of E

scap

emen

t Est. 

Potential Population Age Sturture

1978‐2012

Page 6: Steelhead Diversity in Puget Sound Streams2‐May 4‐May 6‐May 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Median Migration Date Year Big Beef Creek, WA Steelhead Smolt Median Migration Date

Basin Characterization Mean Basin Elevation Peak Flow MonthRain <1300' Peak flow late Fall early winter.Mixed >1300'<3300' Two peaks:late fall, springSnow >3300' Peak Flow in the SpringDam Dominated Various

Page 7: Steelhead Diversity in Puget Sound Streams2‐May 4‐May 6‐May 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Median Migration Date Year Big Beef Creek, WA Steelhead Smolt Median Migration Date

Map: WDFW Dale Gombert

Page 8: Steelhead Diversity in Puget Sound Streams2‐May 4‐May 6‐May 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Median Migration Date Year Big Beef Creek, WA Steelhead Smolt Median Migration Date

Image Source: WDFW Ageing Lab

‐Age and size data on steelhead smolts ‐Identified smolts by silver coloration, fading or barely visible parr‐marks and darkening of dorsal and caudal fin tips.

Page 9: Steelhead Diversity in Puget Sound Streams2‐May 4‐May 6‐May 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Median Migration Date Year Big Beef Creek, WA Steelhead Smolt Median Migration Date

Stream Avg. Smolt Age Mean Basin Elevation in FeetMatriotti Creek 2.02 328Dewatto 1.61 387Tahuya 1.77 472Big Beef 1.96 487Hansen Creek 2.08 826Little Quilcene 1.94 1,480Green River 1.50 1,630Nisqually 1.77 1,810SF Skokomish 2.08 1,920Finney Creek 2.09 2,360Hamma Hamma 2.07 2,880Duckabush 2.09 3,190Dungeness 2.10 3,500Illabot Creek 2.86 3,500Bacon Creek 2.89 3,560Skagit 2.28 3,570

R² = 0.4388

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

Average Sm

olt A

ge

Mean Basin Elevation (ft)

Page 10: Steelhead Diversity in Puget Sound Streams2‐May 4‐May 6‐May 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Median Migration Date Year Big Beef Creek, WA Steelhead Smolt Median Migration Date

27.84%

62.30%

9.35%

0.52%

Rain

% Age‐1

% Age‐2

%Age‐3

% Age‐4

8.97%

77.21%

13.71%

0.11%

Mixed

% Age‐1

% Age‐2

%Age‐3

% Age‐4

2.77%

69.95%

25.32%

1.96%

Snow

% Age‐1

% Age‐2

%Age‐3

% Age‐4

43.97%

51.87%

3.87%

0.23%

0.03% 0.03%

Dam Control

% Age‐1

% Age‐2

%Age‐3

% Age‐4

% Age‐5

% Age‐6

Steelhead Smolt Age By Basin Type

Page 11: Steelhead Diversity in Puget Sound Streams2‐May 4‐May 6‐May 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Median Migration Date Year Big Beef Creek, WA Steelhead Smolt Median Migration Date

Mean Fork Length(mm) at Age for all Puget Sound Steelhead Smolts

Page 12: Steelhead Diversity in Puget Sound Streams2‐May 4‐May 6‐May 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Median Migration Date Year Big Beef Creek, WA Steelhead Smolt Median Migration Date

Nisqually

R² = 0.0425

100.0

110.0

120.0

130.0

140.0

150.0

160.0

170.0

180.0

190.0

200.0

210.0

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

Fork Len

th (m

m)

Mean Basin Elevation (ft)

Fork Length Age‐2 smolts 

Length of Age‐2 Smolts By Basin Elevation

Page 13: Steelhead Diversity in Puget Sound Streams2‐May 4‐May 6‐May 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Median Migration Date Year Big Beef Creek, WA Steelhead Smolt Median Migration Date

Steelhead Smolt  Catch Timing For All StreamsMedian Catch Date

May‐12

25% April‐30

75% May‐24

Earliest January‐10

Latest August‐24

7/19

2/19

5/30

4/10

Page 14: Steelhead Diversity in Puget Sound Streams2‐May 4‐May 6‐May 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Median Migration Date Year Big Beef Creek, WA Steelhead Smolt Median Migration Date

Catch Timing For All Streams By Year

7/19

2/19

4/10

5/30

Page 15: Steelhead Diversity in Puget Sound Streams2‐May 4‐May 6‐May 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Median Migration Date Year Big Beef Creek, WA Steelhead Smolt Median Migration Date

Steelhead Smolt Catch All Years By RegimeRain Mixed  Snow

Median Catch Date May‐2 May‐20 May‐9

7/19

2/19

4/10

5/30

Page 16: Steelhead Diversity in Puget Sound Streams2‐May 4‐May 6‐May 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Median Migration Date Year Big Beef Creek, WA Steelhead Smolt Median Migration Date

Scatter Plot All Years By Regime

7/192/19 4/10 5/30

Page 17: Steelhead Diversity in Puget Sound Streams2‐May 4‐May 6‐May 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Median Migration Date Year Big Beef Creek, WA Steelhead Smolt Median Migration Date

‐Pattern is consistent over the years.

Smolt Timing By Regime For Each Year

7/19

2/19

4/10

5/30

Page 18: Steelhead Diversity in Puget Sound Streams2‐May 4‐May 6‐May 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Median Migration Date Year Big Beef Creek, WA Steelhead Smolt Median Migration Date

‐Higher elevation snow dominated systems have older smolts

‐Younger smolts are smaller…Duh!

‐Dam dominated systems have youngest, largest and late timed smolts

‐Size at age across basins is fairly consistent.

‐Low elevation rain dominated systems have earliest smolt timing

Summary

Page 19: Steelhead Diversity in Puget Sound Streams2‐May 4‐May 6‐May 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Median Migration Date Year Big Beef Creek, WA Steelhead Smolt Median Migration Date

Changing Conditions

‐Stream Temp. Projected to Increase in Puget Sound Area 4.0‐4.5F by 2080

‐Decreased Summer Flows

Page 20: Steelhead Diversity in Puget Sound Streams2‐May 4‐May 6‐May 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Median Migration Date Year Big Beef Creek, WA Steelhead Smolt Median Migration Date

Climate change projections and likely impacts on steelhead:

‐Lowland rain dominated streams will become too warm in some years for rearing steelhead in the summer months.

‐Likely smolts will be younger/ smaller with warming

‐Migration timing will trend earlier.

Page 21: Steelhead Diversity in Puget Sound Streams2‐May 4‐May 6‐May 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Median Migration Date Year Big Beef Creek, WA Steelhead Smolt Median Migration Date

R² = 0.1749

16‐Apr18‐Apr20‐Apr22‐Apr24‐Apr26‐Apr28‐Apr30‐Apr2‐May4‐May6‐May

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Med

ian Migratio

n Date

Year

Big Beef Creek, WA

Steelhead Smolt Median Migration Date 1978‐2015

Page 22: Steelhead Diversity in Puget Sound Streams2‐May 4‐May 6‐May 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Median Migration Date Year Big Beef Creek, WA Steelhead Smolt Median Migration Date

Take away message:

‐Habitat Diversity=Life History Diversity

‐Preserve diversity of habitat types

‐Monitoring is very important

‐Smolt age, size and timing will likely change

Page 23: Steelhead Diversity in Puget Sound Streams2‐May 4‐May 6‐May 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Median Migration Date Year Big Beef Creek, WA Steelhead Smolt Median Migration Date

Thanks:Phil Sandstrom WDFWJoe Anderson WDFWDale Gombert WDFWPete Topping WDFWMatt Klungle WDFWJosh Weinheimer WDFWAndrew Claiborne WDFWLance Campbell WDFWKatie Doctor NOAAJon‐Paul Shannahan USITChris Burns‐ Jamestown S’KlallamAaron Brooks‐Jamestown S’Klallam

Page 24: Steelhead Diversity in Puget Sound Streams2‐May 4‐May 6‐May 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Median Migration Date Year Big Beef Creek, WA Steelhead Smolt Median Migration Date