Steo_full Energy Us Markets Summary

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U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration | ShortTermEnergyOutlookDecember2014 1

December2014

Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)

Highlights

NorthSeaBrentcrudeoilspotpricesfellbymorethan15%inNovember,decliningfrom

$85/barrel(bbl)onNovember3to$72/bblonNovember28. MonthlyaverageBrentcrude

oilpriceshavedeclined29%fromtheir2014highof$112/bblinJunetoanaverageof

$79/bblinNovember,thelowestmonthlyaveragesinceSeptember2010. TheNovember

pricedeclinereflectscontinuedgrowthinU.S.tightoilproductionalongwithweakening

outlooksfortheglobaleconomyandoildemandgrowth.TheOrganizationofthePetroleum

ExportingCountries

(OPEC)

decision

in

late

November

to

maintain

its

current

crude

oil

productiontarget,despiteloweroilprices,putadditionaldownwardpressureonprice

expectations.

Thecurrentvaluesoffuturesandoptionscontractssuggesthighuncertaintyintheprice

outlook(MarketPricesandUncertaintyReport). WTIfuturescontractsforMarch2015

delivery,tradedduringthefivedayperiodendingDecember4,averaged$67/bbl. Implied

volatilityaveraged32%,establishingthelowerandupperlimitsofthe95%confidence

intervalforthemarket'sexpectationsofmonthlyaverageWTIpricesinMarch2015at

$51/bbland$89/bbl,respectively. Lastyearatthistime,WTIforMarch2014delivery

averaged

$96/bbl

and

implied

volatility

averaged

19%.

The

corresponding

lower

and

upper

limitsofthe95%confidenceintervalwere$82/bbland$112/bbl.

TotalU.S.crudeoilproductionaveragedanestimated9.0millionbarrelsperday(bbl/d)in

November. Projectedtotalcrudeoilproductionaverages9.3millionbbl/din2015,a

reductionof0.1millionbbl/dfromlastmonth'sSTEO.

Drivenlargelybyfallingcrudeoilprices,U.S.weeklyregulargasolineretailpricesaveraged

$2.78/gallon(gal)onDecember1,thelowestsinceOctober4,2010. U.S.regulargasoline

retailpricesareprojectedtocontinuedecliningfortheremainderoftheyear,averaging

$2.61/galinDecember.EIAexpectsU.S.regulargasolineretailprices,whichaveraged

$3.51/galin2013,toaverage$3.37/galin2014and$2.60/galin2015.Forecastretail

gasolinepricesfor2015are$0.35/gallowerthaninlastmonthsSTEO.

U.S.populationweightedheatingdegreedays(HDD)wereanestimated18%higherthan

theprevious10yearaverageforNovember.Despiteacoldstarttothewinter,lowerfuel

pricesandtheNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministrations(NOAA)projectionof

nearnormaltemperaturesfortheremainderofthewinterareexpectedtohelplessen


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consumerexpendituresonhomeheatingcomparedwithlastwinter. Lowercrudeoilprices

areexpectedtohelpreducehouseholdheatingoilexpendituresby27%($632)compared

withlastwinter,withU.S.heatingoilpricesaveraging20%lowerat$3.09/gal. Propane

pricesareexpectedtobe13%lowerintheNortheastand26%lowerintheMidwest,

resultinginhouseholdsspending20%and34%lessonpropaneinthoseregions,

respectively.

NaturalgasworkinginventoriesonNovember28totaled3.41trillioncubicfeet(Tcf),0.23

Tcf(6%)belowthelevelatthesametimeayearagoand0.37Tcf(10%)belowtheprevious

fiveyearaverage(200913). Despitethelowerstocksatthestartofthiswinter'sheating

season,EIAexpectstheHenryHubnaturalgasspotpricetoaverage$3.98/millionBritish

thermalunits(MMBtu)thiswintercomparedwith$4.53/MMBtulastwinter,reflectingboth

lowerexpectedheatingdemandandhighernaturalgasproductionthiswinter.

GlobalPetroleumandOtherLiquids

AttheconclusionofitsmeetinginlateNovember,OPECannouncedthatitwouldmaintainits

currentcrudeoilproductiontargetof30millionbbl/d.EIAexpectsthatgloballiquidfuelssupply

willcontinuetooutpaceconsumption,resultinginanaveragestockbuildof0.4millionbbl/din

2015.Stockbuildsareexpectedtobeconcentratedinthefirsthalfoftheyear,averaging0.7

millionbbl/dduringthisperiod.EIAforecastsgloballiquidfuelssupplytoaverage92.8million

bbl/din2015,0.2millionbbl/dlowerthaninlastmonth'sSTEO.The2015globaldemand

forecastwasalsoreviseddownwardby0.2millionbbl/dtoanaverageof92.3millionbbl/d,

basedonweakerglobaleconomicgrowthprospectsfornextyear.

Consistentwith

OPECs

announcement,

Saudi

Arabia

has

indicated

its

intention

to

maintain

its

exportmarketshareratherthancutproductiontokeeppriceshigher.Inthepast,SaudiArabia

oftenplayedtheroleoftheswingproducer,temporarilycuttingitsproductiontoaccommodate

supplygrowthelsewhereorweakerglobaldemand,orincreasingitsoutputleveltomakeupfor

asupplyshortfall.SaudiArabia'sproductionisstillprojectedtodeclinein2015comparedwith

thisyear,butbyasmalleramountthanpreviouslyexpected.EIAprojectsthatSaudiArabiawill

cutproductionbelowitscurrentlevelof9.6millionbbl/damidhighnonOPECsupplygrowth,

butmaintainoutputabove9.0millionbbl/dthrough2015.

GlobalPetroleumandOtherLiquidsConsumption.EIAestimatesthatglobalconsumptiongrew

by1.3

million

bbl/d

in

2013,

averaging

90.5

million

bbl/d

for

the

year.

EIA

expects

global

consumptiontogrowby1.0millionbbl/din2014and0.9millionbbl/din2015.Projectedglobal

oilconsumptionweightedrealgrossdomesticproduct(GDP),whichincreasedbyanestimated

2.7%in2013,isprojectedtogrowby2.7%and2.9%in2014and2015,respectively. Compared

withlastmonthsforecast,globalconsumptionwasreviseddownwardby0.2millionbbl/din

2015,basedona0.3%reductiontoforecastglobaloilconsumptionweightedrealGDPgrowth.

Intheshortterm,theincomeelasticityofglobaldemandisgreaterthanthepriceelasticityof


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globaldemand.Thus,thenegativeimpactoflowerforecasteconomicgrowthondemand

outweighsthepositiveimpactofloweroilprices.

ConsumptionoutsideoftheOrganizationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(OECD)is

projectedtogrowby1.2millionbbl/din2014and0.9millionbbl/din2015.Chinaistheleading

contributorto

projected

global

consumption

growth,

with

consumption

increasing

by

an

annual

averageof0.36millionbbl/din2014and2015.

EIAexpectsa0.2millionbbl/ddeclineinOECDconsumptionin2014.JapanandEuropeare

expectedtoaccountformuchoftheprojectedOECDconsumptiondecline. EIAexpectsJapan's

consumption,whichfellby0.16millionbbl/din2013,todeclinebyanadditional0.16million

bbl/din2014and0.14millionbbl/din2015.Japanisexpectedtouselessfueloilinthe

electricitysectorasthecountryreturnssomenuclearpowerplantstoservicein2015and

increasestheuseofnaturalgasandcoaltogenerateelectricity. EIAforecaststhatOECD

Europe'sconsumption,whichfellby0.15millionbbl/din2013,declinesbyanadditional0.12

millionbbl/d

in

2014

and

0.14

million

bbl/d

in

2015.

U.S.

consumption,

which

increased

by

0.47

millionbbl/din2013,isexpectedtoremainflatin2014andthenincreaseby0.14millionbbl/d

in2015.

NonOPECPetroleumandOtherLiquidsSupply.EIAestimatesthatnonOPECproductiongrew

by1.4millionbbl/din2013,averaging54.1millionbbl/dfortheyear. EIAexpectsnonOPEC

productiontogrowby1.9millionbbl/din2014and0.8millionbbl/din2015,withtheUnited

Statesastheleadingcontributor.NonOPECsupplyisforecasttoincreaseby1.6millionbbl/din

2014and1.0millionbbl/din2015.EIAestimatesthatEurasia'sproductionwillrisebyanannual

averageof0.05millionbbl/din2014anddeclineby0.09millionbbl/din2015,reflecting

declinesin

Russia

and

Azerbaijan.

UnplannedsupplydisruptionsamongnonOPECproducersaveragedslightlylowerthan0.6

millionbbl/dinNovember,virtuallyunchangedfromthepreviousmonth.SouthSudan,Syria,

andYemenaccountedformorethan90%oftotalnonOPECsupplydisruptions.

OPECPetroleumandOtherLiquidsSupply.EIAestimatesthatOPECcrudeoilproduction

averaged29.9millionbbl/din2013,adeclineofalmost1.0millionbbl/dfromthepreviousyear,

primarilyreflectingincreasedoutagesinLibya,Nigeria,Iran,andIraq,alongwithstrongnon

OPECsupplygrowth. EIAexpectsOPECcrudeoilproductiontofallby0.1millionbbl/din2014

andby0.2millionbbl/din2015.PreviouslyprojectedOPECcrudeoilproductiondeclineswere

reducedbasedonareassessmentofSaudiArabia'swillingnesstocutproduction.

TheIraqigovernmentinBaghdadreachedadealonoilexportsandrevenuewiththeKurdistan

RegionalGovernment(KRG)inearlyDecember2014,whichcouldfacilitateincreasedproduction

andexportsfromnorthernfieldscontrolledbytheKRGandbyBaghdad. Notwithstandingthis

agreement,thethreatoftheIslamicStateofIraqandtheLevant(ISIL)onnorthernproduction

andexportsstilllooms. Asaresult,Iraqisamajorwildcardtothe2015worldoilproduction


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forecast.EIAprojectsthatIraqsproductionwillgrowby0.2millionbbl/dnextyear. Actual

productiongrowthhasthepotentialtoexceedthisforecastifBaghdadandKRGfollowthrough

onthedeal,andifISILdoesnotsubstantiallyaffectproduction.

UnplannedcrudeoilsupplydisruptionsamongOPECproducersaveraged2.7millionbbl/din

November2014,

an

increase

of

nearly

0.6

million

bbl/d

because

of

new

production

outages

in

LibyaandcontinuedoutagesintheNeutralZonesharedbyKuwaitandSaudiArabia.

IntermittentsupplyoutagesinLibyawillmostlikelypersistasthecountryfacespolitical

instabilityandadeterioratedsecurityenvironment. Asaresult,EIAdoesnotexpectLibya'soil

productiontorecovertoitspreblockadelevelof1.4millionbbl/dovertheforecastperiod.

EIAexpectsOPECsurpluscrudeoilproductioncapacity,whichisconcentratedinSaudiArabia,

toaverage2.1millionbbl/din2014and2.5millionbbl/din2015.Theestimatesdonotinclude

additionalcapacitythatmaybeavailableinIranbutisofflinebecauseoftheeffectsofU.S.and

EuropeanUnionsanctionsonIran'sabilitytosellitsoil.

OECDPetroleumInventories.EIAestimatesthatOECDcommercialoilinventoriestotaled2.55

billionbarrelsattheendof2013,equivalenttoroughly55daysofconsumption.ProjectedOECD

oilinventoriesriseto2.64billionbarrelsattheendof2014and2.71billionbarrelsattheendof

2015.

CrudeOilPrices.NorthSeaBrentcrudeoilspotpricesaveraged$79/bblinNovember,down

$8/bblfromtheOctoberaverageandthefirstmonthBrentcrudeoilpriceshaveaveraged

below$80/bblsinceSeptember2010.Thecombinationofrobustworldcrudeoilsupplygrowth

andweakglobaldemandhascontributedtorisingglobalinventoriesandfallingcrudeoilprices

(EIA,ThisWeekinPetroleum,November13,2014).OnNovember27,followingOPECsdecision

toleaveitscrudeoilproductiontargetunchanged,Brentcrudeoilspotpricesfellbymorethan

10%,andhavesincefallento$68/bblasofDecember4,thelowestdailypricesinceMay25,

2010.

EIAexpectsglobaloilinventoriestocontinuetobuildoverthenextyear,keepingdownward

pressureonoilprices. TheforecastBrentcrudeoilpriceaverages$68/bblin2015,$15/bbl

lowerthanprojectedinlastmonth'sSTEO. Basedoncurrentmarketbalances,EIAexpects

downwardpricepressurestobeconcentratedinthefirsthalfof2015whenglobalinventory

buildsareexpectedtobeparticularlystrong.EIAprojectsthatBrentpriceswillreacha2015

monthlyaveragelowof$63/bblforeachmonthfromMarchthroughMay,andthenincrease

throughthe

remainder

of

the

year

to

average

$73/bbl

during

the

fourth

quarter.

ThemonthlyaverageWTIcrudeoilspotpricefellfromanaverageof$84/bblinOctoberto

$76/bblinNovember. LikeBrentcrudeoilprices,WTIpriceshavedecreasedconsiderably,

fallingbymorethan28%sincereachingtheir2014peakatanaverageof$106/bblinJune. EIA

nowexpectsWTIcrudeoilpricestoaverage$75/bblinthefourthquarterof2014and$63/bbl

in2015,$5/bbland$15/bbllowerthanprojectedinlastmonth'sSTEO,respectively.The


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discountofWTItoBrentcrudeoilisforecasttowidenslightlyfromcurrentlevels,averaging

$5/bblin2015.

However,thecurrentvaluesoffuturesandoptionscontractssuggesthighuncertaintyinthe

priceoutlook(MarketPricesandUncertaintyReport).WTIfuturescontractsforMarch2015

delivery,traded

during

the

five

day

period

ending

December

4,

averaged

$67/bbl.

Implied

volatilityaveraged32%,establishingthelowerandupperlimitsofthe95%confidenceinterval

forthemarket'sexpectationsofmonthlyaverageWTIpricesinMarch2015at$51/bbland

$89/bbl,respectively. Lastyearatthistime,WTIforMarch2014deliveryaveraged$96/bbland

impliedvolatilityaveraged19%. Thecorrespondinglowerandupperlimitsofthe95%

confidenceintervalwere$82/bbland$112/bbl.

Therecentdeclinesinoilpriceandassociatedincreasesinoilpricevolatilityhavecreateda

particularlyuncertainforecastingenvironment,andseveralfactorscouldcauseoilpricesto

deviatesignificantlyfromcurrentprojections.Amongtheseistheresponsivenessofsupplyto

thelower

price

environment.

Despite

OPECs

recent

decision

to

leave

its

crude

oil

production

targetat30millionbbl/d,ifcrudeoilpricescontinuetofall,SaudiArabiaandotherscould

choosetocutproduction,tighteningmarketbalances.Thelevelofcrudeoilproductionoutages

couldalsovaryfromforecastlevelsforawiderangeofproducers,includingOPECmembers

Libya,Iraq,Iran,Nigeria,andVenezuela.Additionally,thepriceandlagtimerequiredtocausea

reductioninforecastnonOPECsupplygrowth,particularlyU.S.tightoil,isnotknown.The

degreetowhichnonOPECsupplygrowthisaffectedbyloweroilpriceswillalsoaffectmarket

balancesandprices.

SeveralOPECandnonOPECoilproducersrelyheavilyonoilrevenuestofinancetheirfiscal

budgets.Some

producers

have

already

started

adjusting

their

upcoming

budgets

to

reflect

the

crudeoilpricedecline.Ifcrudeoilpricescontinuetofalloraresustainedatalowerlevel,then

oildependentproducerswillhavetomaketoughpolicydecisions.Thiscouldpotentiallyleadto

austerityprogramsandfuelsubsidycutsthatcouldsparksocialunrest,leavingsomecountries

vulnerabletosupplydisruptionsifprotestorstargetoilinfrastructure.Potentialnewsupply

disruptionsarearealpossibilityinalowerthanexpectedpriceclimateandpresentan

uncertaintyintheworldoilsupplyforecast.

U.S.PetroleumandOtherLiquids

U.S.weeklyregulargasolineretailpricesaveraged$2.78/galonDecember1,whichmarkeda

decreaseof$0.21/galsincethebeginningofNovemberandthelowestweeklypriceaverage

sinceOctober4,2010. U.S.averageregulargasolineretailpriceshavefallenfornine

consecutiveweeksandaredownby25%sincetheirsummerpeakinlateJune. FallingBrent

crudeoilpriceshavebeenlargelyresponsibleforfallingretailgasolineprices. EIAexpectsthat

thecurrentlowcrudeoilpriceswillcontributetofurtherdeclinesingasolineprices,withthe

Decemberpriceexpectedtoaverage$2.61/gal.


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LiquidFuelsConsumption. TotalU.S.liquidfuelsconsumptionroseby470,000bbl/d(2.5%)in

2013,thelargestincreasesince2004. Consumptionofhydrocarbongasliquids(HGL)registered

thelargestgain,increasingby190,000bbl/d(8.5%). In2014,totalliquidfuelsconsumptionis

expectedtoremainunchanged,withdeclinesintheconsumptionofHGL,residualfueloil,and

otheroilsoffsettingincreasesindistillatefuelandjetfuel. Totalconsumptionisforecastto

growby

140,000

bbl/d

in

2015,

with

HGL

and

distillate

consumption

accounting

for

most

of

the

growth.

Motorgasolineconsumptiongrewby160,000bbl/d(1.9%)in2013,thelargestincreasesince

2004. EIAexpectsgasolineconsumptiontoremainmostlyunchangedduringtheforecast

period,asmodestincreasesprojectedfor2014areoffsetbysmalldeclinesin2015. This

projectionshowsthatcontinuedimprovementsinnewvehiclefueleconomyoffsethighway

travelgrowth.

Distillatefuelconsumptionincreasesby120,000bbl/d(3.1%)in2014,reflectingcolderthan

average

first

quarter

weather

and

economic

growth.

Distillate

consumption

rises

by

an

additional90,000bbl/d(2.2%)in2015.Someofthegrowthindistillatefuelconsumptionin

2015comesfromAnnexVItotheInternationalConventionforthePreventionofPollutionfrom

Ships(MARPOLAnnexVI),whichisaninternationalagreementthatgenerallyrequirestheuseof

fuelsbelow1,000partspermillionsulfurbymarinevesselsinmostU.S.waters,unless

alternativedevices,procedures,orcompliancemethodsareusedtoachieveequivalent

emissionsreductions.

Residualfueloilconsumption,whichfallstoanestimated240,000bbl/din2014,isprojectedto

declinefurtherto210,000bbl/din2015,whichwouldbethelowestlevelonrecord.

LiquidFuels

Supply.

Forecast

U.S.

crude

oil

production

increases

from

an

average

of

7.4

million

bbl/din2013to8.6millionbbl/din2014and9.3millionbbl/din2015.RecentonshoreLower

48statesoilproductionhasbeenhigherthanexpected,causinganupwardrevisionof155,000

bbl/dfromthepreviousforecastinthefourthquarterof2014. However,giventhereductionin

the2015crudeoilpriceforecast,withWTIcrudeoilpricesexpectedtoaverage$58/bblinthe

secondquarterof2015,EIAexpects2015drillingactivitytodeclineduetounattractive

economicreturnsinsomeareasofbothemergingandmatureoilproductionregions.Many

companieswillredirectinvestmentawayfrommarginalexplorationandresearchdrillingand

intocoreareasofmajortightoilplays. Oilpricesremainhighenoughtosupportdevelopment

drillingactivityintheBakken,EagleFord,Niobrara,andPermianBasin,whichcontributethe

majorityofU.S.oilproductiongrowth. TheGulfofMexicooilproductionforecasthasbeen

reviseddownwardthismonthby95,000bbl/din2015,assomeprojectswhichstarted

producingin2014arerampingupproductionslowerthaninitiallyexpected,whileother

projectsstartdateshavebeenpushedbackintolate2014andearly2015.

HGLproductionatnaturalgasliquidsplants,whichreachedarecordhighof3.1millionbbl/din

September,isprojectedtoincreaseto3.3millionbbl/dbytheendof2015. Ethaneandpropane

areexpectedtocontributemosttotheprojectedgrowth,withthemajorityofproduction


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directedtowardsdomesticpetrochemicaluseorexports. EIAexpectshigherratesofethane

recoveriesasaresultofplannedincreasesinpetrochemicalfacilityfeedstockdemand,while

exportterminalexpansionswillallowhigherquantitiesofdomesticallyproducedpropaneand

butanestoreachtheinternationalmarket.

Thegrowth

in

domestic

production

has

contributed

to

asignificant

decline

in

petroleum

imports. TheshareoftotalU.S.liquidfuelsconsumptionmetbynetimportsfellfrom60%in

2005toanaverageof33%in2013.EIAexpectsthenetimportsharetodeclineto21%in2015,

whichwouldbethelowestlevelsince1969.

PetroleumProductPrices. U.S.averageregulargasolineretailpricesfellfromamonthly

averageof$3.69/galinJuneto$2.91/galinNovember,thefirstmonthinwhichpriceshave

averagedbelow$3.00/galsinceDecember2010. EIAexpectsthatU.S.regulargasolineretail

priceswillfalltoanaverageof$2.61/galinDecember2014. TheU.S.regulargasolineretail

price,whichaveraged$3.51/galin2013,isprojectedtoaverage$3.37/galin2014and$2.60/gal

in2015.

Forecast

retail

gasoline

prices

for

2015

are

$0.35/gal

lower

than

in

last

months

STEO.

Dieselfuelprices,whichaveraged$3.92/galin2013,areprojectedtofalltoanaverageof

$3.82/galin2014and$3.07/galin2015.Forecastdieselfuelpricesfor2015are$0.31/gallower

thaninlastmonthsSTEO.

TheFebruary2015NewYorkHarborreformulatedblendstockforoxygenateblending(RBOB)

futurescontractaveraged$1.85/galforthefivetradingdaysendingDecember4,2014. An

RBOBfuturescontractpriceof$1.85/galisconsistentwithamonthlyaverageregulargrade

gasolineretailpricelessthan$2.50/galinMarch2015. Thereisa4%probabilitythattheRBOB

futurescontractpriceatexpirationmayexceed$2.35/gal,consistentwitharetailpriceof

$3.00/galor

higher.

Daily

and

weekly

national

average

prices

can

differ

significantly

from

monthlyandseasonalaverages,andtherearealsosignificantdifferencesacrossregions,with

monthlyaveragepricesinsomeareasfallingaboveorbelowthenationalaveragepriceby

$0.30/galormore.

Lowerprojectedcrudeoilpricesalsocontributetoareductionintheforecastresidentialheating

oilpriceandaveragehouseholdheatingoilexpendituresthiswintercomparedtolastwinter.

Theaveragehouseholdthatusesheatingoilasitsprimaryspaceheatingfuelisexpectedtopay

anaverageof$3.09/galthiswinter,$0.79/gallowerthanlastwinter. Theaveragehouseholdis

nowexpectedtospend$1,722forheatingoilthiswinter,$57lowerthaninlastmonth'sSTEO.

NaturalGas

Afterarecordinjectionseason,the162BcfstoragewithdrawalfortheweekendingNovember

21tiedtherecordsetlastyearforthelargestNovemberwithdrawal.Thelargewithdrawal

reflectedunseasonablycoldweathereastoftheRockyMountains.Asaresult,thismonths

STEOrevisesdownwardendofMarch2015inventoriesto1,431Bcf,basedonNOAA

expectationsthattemperaturesfortherestofthewinterwillbeclosetonormal. EIAexpects


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theHenryHubnaturalgasspotpricetoaverage$3.98/MMBtuthiswinter,closetolastmonths

forecast.

NaturalGasConsumption. EIAexpectstotalnaturalgasconsumptiontoaverage73.9Bcf/din

2014,anincreaseof3.2%from2013and1%higherthaninlastmonthsSTEO.Thisupward

revisionlargely

reflects

colder

than

forecast

temperatures

in

November.

In

2015,

total

natural

gasconsumptionisexpectedtodeclineaslowerresidentialandcommercialconsumptionoffset

increasesintheelectricpowerandindustrialsectors. Naturalgasconsumptioninthepower

sectorisexpectedtoaverage22.1Bcf/din2014,a0.8%declinecomparedtolastyear,reflecting

highernaturalgaspricesthisyear. EIAexpectsnaturalgasconsumptioninthepowersectorto

increaseto22.7Bcf/din2015.

NaturalGasProductionandTrade. EIAexpectsnaturalgasmarketedproductiontogrowbyan

annualrateof5.5%in2014and3.1%in2015. EIAprojectsthatthestrongincreasesalready

seenintheLower48statesformostofthisyearwillcontinuethrough2015,morethan

offsettingthe

long

term

trend

of

declining

production

in

the

Gulf

of

Mexico.

As

of

September,

themostrecentmonthforwhichEIAdataareavailable,drynaturalgasproductionwas4.6

Bcf/dgreaterthanitwasinSeptember2013.ProductionusuallydeclinesinSeptemberdueto

seasonalmaintenance;however,productionthisyearincreasedslightlyfromAugustto

September.

Growingdomesticnaturalgasproductionisexpectedtoreducedemandforimportsfrom

CanadaandspurexportstoMexico. EIAexpectsexportstoMexico,particularlyfromtheEagle

FordShaleinSouthTexas,toincreasebecauseofgrowingdemandfromMexico'selectricpower

sectorandflatMexicanproduction.

Liquefiednaturalgas(LNG)importshavefallenoverthepastfouryearsbecausehigherpricesin

EuropeandAsiaaremoreattractivetoLNGexportersthantherelativelylowpricesinthe

UnitedStates.EIAprojectsthattheUnitedStateswillbecomeanetLNGexporterwhen

ChenieresLNGliquefactionplantbeginsservice.

NaturalGasInventories. Naturalgasworkinginventoriestotaled3,410BcfasofNovember28,

whichwas227Bcflowerthanatthesametimelastyearand372Bcflowerthantheprevious

fiveyear(200913)average.Followinglastyearsextremelycoldwinter,inventoriesfelltoabout

1,000BcfbelowthefiveyearaverageinmidApril. Afterastronginjectionseason,inventories

were237BcfbelowthefiveyearaverageonNovember7. EIAprojectsthatendofMarch2015

inventorieswilltotal1,431Bcf,whichis225Bcfbelowthefiveyear(201014)average.

NaturalGasPrices. TheHenryHubnaturalgasspotpriceaveraged$4.12/MMBtuinNovember,

anincreaseof34centsfromOctober.EIAexpectsspotpricestoremainabove$4/MMBtu

throughJanuary. ProjectedHenryHubnaturalgaspricesaverage$4.44/MMBtuin2014and

$3.83/MMBtuin2015.


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NaturalgasfuturespricesforMarch2015delivery(forthefivedayperiodendingDecember4)

averaged$3.84/MMBtu. Currentoptionsandfuturespricesimplythatmarketparticipants

placethelowerandupperboundsforthe95%confidenceintervalforMarch2015contractsat

$2.40/MMBtuand$6.13/MMBtu,respectively. Atthistimelastyear,thenaturalgasfutures

contractforMarch2014averaged$3.98/MMBtuandthecorrespondinglowerandupperlimits

ofthe

95%

confidence

interval

were

$3.01/MMBtu

and

$5.26/MMBtu.

Coal

Totalelectricpowersectorcoalstocksincreasedby3.1millionshorttons(MMst)inSeptember

comparedwiththepreviousmonth.Thisincreaseinstocksfollowsthetypicalseasonalpattern

wherecoalplantsbuildstocksduringtheautumnmonthsinpreparationforincreasedcoal

consumptioninthewinter.Despitetheincrease,endofSeptemberstocksare28MMst(18%)

lowerthanlastyearand23%lowerthanthepreviousfouryearaverageforthemonth.The

largeyearoveryeardecreaseinstocksreflectsincreasedcoalfiredelectricitygenerationduring

thewinter

of

2013

14

across

alarge

portion

of

the

country

and

subsequent

decreased

coal

deliveriesbecauseoflingeringrailtransportationissues.

CoalSupply. EIAestimatesthatcoalproductionforthefirst11monthsofthisyearwas909

MMst,almostunchangedfromthesameperiodlastyear.EIAexpectsthatannualproduction

willgrowby1.2%in2014andremainflatin2015.

CoalConsumption. Higherelectricitydemandandhigherpowersectornaturalgaspricesare

contributingtoanincreaseinelectricpowersectorcoalconsumptionthisyear. EIAprojects

electricpowercoalconsumptionof868MMstin2014,anincreaseof1.2%fromlastyear.

Powersector

coal

consumption

is

projected

to

fall

by

0.4%

in

2015,

as

retirements

of

coal

power

plantsriseinresponsetotheimplementationoftheMercuryandAirToxicsStandards,and

electricityandnaturalgaspricesfallrelativetocoalprices.

CoalTrade. Exportsofcoalareprojectedtodeclineto96MMstin2014from118MMstin

2013,primarilybecauseofslowingworldcoaldemandgrowth,lowerinternationalcoalprices,

andincreasingcoaloutputinothercoalexportingcountries.Withnoimprovementinglobal

marketconditions,EIAprojectscoalexportstofallto83MMstin2015,whichwouldbethe

lowestsince2010.

EIAexpects

coal

imports,

which

account

for

about

1%

of

U.S.

coal

consumption,

to

total

12.2

MMstin2014andfallto10.8MMstin2015.

CoalPrices. Theannualaveragecoalpricetotheelectricpowerindustryfellfromahistorically

high$2.39/MMBtuin2011to$2.35/MMBtuin2013.EIAexpectstheaveragedeliveredcoal

pricetobe$2.36/MMBtuin2014andremainatthatlevelin2015.


10/48


Electricity

Theelectricityindustryhasclosedanumberofcoalfiredpowerplantsoverthepasttwoyears.

During2013,anestimated5,700megawatts(MW)ofcoalcapacitywasretiredintheUnited

States. FromJanuarythroughSeptemberof2014,theindustryshutdownanadditional2,265

MWof

coal

capacity,

with

another

895

MW

of

retirements

planned

through

the

end

of

the

year.

Theseretirementsaccountfor2.9%ofexistingcoalfiredcapacityattheendof2012. Coalfired

powerplantretirementspickupsignificantlynextyear,whenmorethan12,800MWofcapacity

isexpectedtobeshutdown.

ElectricityConsumption. TemperaturesthroughouttheUnitedStatesweresignificantlybelow

normallastmonth,withtheexceptionofthePacificCoast. U.S.HDDinNovemberwere18%

higherthantheprevious10yearaverage. However,HDDfortheremainderofthewinterare

expectedtobeabout1%lowerthanthe10yearaverageand10%lowerthanthesameperiod

lastwinter. EIAforecaststhatU.S.residentialelectricitysalesduringthe201415winter

(OctoberMarch)

will

average

about

1.8%

less

than

the

previous

winter.

EIA

forecasts

that

sales

ofelectricitytothecommercialsectorthiswinterwillgrowby0.8%,whileindustrialelectricity

saleswillgrowby1.2%fromlastwinter.

ElectricityGeneration. EIAestimatesthatU.S.electricitygenerationin2014willaverage11.2

terawatthoursperday,whichwouldbe1.1%higherthanaveragegenerationlastyear. Rising

naturalgaspricesthisyearhaveencouragedtheindustrytouseexistingcoalcapacityathigher

utilizationratesthanlastyear,leadingtoanexpectedincreaseincoal'sshareoftotalgeneration

from39.1%in2013to39.4%in2014,whilethesharesuppliedbynaturalgasfallsfrom27.4%to

27.1%. In2015,EIAexpectsthatnaturalgas'sfuelsharewillriseto27.6%andcoal'sfuelshare

willdeclineto38.9%inresponsetolowernaturalgaspricesandretirementsofcoalfiredpower

plants.

ElectricityRetailPrices. EIAexpectstheU.S.residentialpricetoaverage12.5centsper

kilowatthourin2014,whichis3.0%higherthantheaveragelastyear. Pricesincreaseinall

regionsofthecountryexceptalongthePacificCoast. AverageU.S.residentialelectricityprices

growataslowerrateof1.7%in2015.

RenewablesandCarbonDioxideEmissions

ElectricityandHeatGenerationfromRenewables. EIAprojectsthattotalrenewablesusedfor

electricityand

heat

generation

will

grow

by

1.8%

in

2014.

Conventional

hydropower

generation

isprojectedtofallby4.4%,whilenonhydropowerrenewablesriseby5.1%. Nonhydropower

renewablesgenerationsurpasseshydropoweronanannualbasisforthefirsttimein2014. In

2015,totalrenewablesconsumptionforelectricpowerandheatgenerationincreasesby4.3%

asaresultofsimilarincreasesinbothhydropowerandnonhydropowerrenewables.Electricity

generationfromwindisprojectedtocontribute4.7%oftotalelectricitygenerationin2015.


11/48


EIAexpectscontinuedgrowthinutilityscalesolarpowergeneration,whichisprojectedto

averagemorethan60gigawatthoursperdayin2015.Despitethegrowth,thisremainsjust0.6%

oftotalU.S.generation.Whilesolargrowthhashistoricallybeenconcentratedincustomersited

distributedgenerationinstallations,utilityscalesolarcapacityslightlymorethandoubledin

2013. EIAexpectsthatutilityscalesolarcapacitywillnearlydoubleagainbetweentheendof

2013and

the

end

of

2015,

with

about

two

thirds

of

this

new

capacity

being

built

in

California.

LiquidBiofuels. Ethanolproductionreachedaweeklyrecordof982,000bbl/dduringtheweek

endingNovember21,exceedingthepreviousrecordof972,000bbl/dsetduringtheweek

endingJune13,2014. EthanolproductioninNovemberalsoreachedamonthlyaveragerecord

of963,000bbl/d,exceedingthepreviousrecordof959,000bbl/dsetinDecember2011. EIA

expectsethanolproductiontoaverage931,000bbl/din2014and948,000bbl/din

2015. Biodieselproductionaveraged89,000bbl/din2013andisforecasttoaverage80,000

bbl/din2014and84,000bbl/din2015.

EnergyRelated

Carbon

Dioxide

Emissions.

EIA

estimates

that

carbon

dioxide

emissions

from

fossilfuelsincreasedby2.5%in2013fromthepreviousyear. Emissionsareforecasttoriseby

1.3%in2014,primarilybecauseofcoldweatherearlyintheyear,andthentoremainflatin

2015.

U.S.EconomicAssumptions

RecentEconomicIndicators. TheBureauofEconomicAnalysis(BEA)reportedthatrealgross

domesticproduct(GDP)grewatanannualizedrateof3.9%fromthesecondtothirdquarters.

Thiswasanupwardrevisionfromtheirearlierestimateof3.5%growthbecauseprivate

inventoryinvestment

decreased

less

than

previously

estimated,

and

both

personal

consumption

expendituresandnonresidentialfixedinvestmentincreasedmore. Resultsfromothereconomic

datahavebeenrelativelypositiveaswell. TheCensusBureaureportedthatnewhomesalesin

Octoberrose0.7%overSeptember2014levels,and1.8%overOctober2013levels. Censusalso

reportedthatnewordersfordurablegoodsrose0.4%fromAugusttoSeptember,butfell0.9%

excludingtransportation. Realpersonalconsumptionexpendituresrose0.2%fromSeptember

toOctoberaccordingtotheBEA,andrealpersonaldisposableincomerose0.1%duringthis

time.

EIAusedtheNovember2014versionoftheIHS/GlobalInsightmacroeconomicmodelwithEIA's

energypriceforecastsasmodelinputstodeveloptheeconomicprojectionsintheSTEO.

ProductionandIncome. RealGDPgrowthreaches2.2%in2014andrisesto2.4%in2015,

belowthe2.3%and2.7%forecastfor2014and2015lastmonth. Expectedgrowthin2014is

lowerinthismonthsforecastbecauseoflessinvestmentspending.RealGDPgrowthislowerin

2015asaresultofreducedexportsduetoastrongerdollarandlessdemandfromslower

growingeconomies. Realdisposableincomegrows2.7%in2014,justabovethe2.6%forecast


12/48


lastmonth,andtotalindustrialproductiongrowsat4%in2014. In2015realdisposableincome

growsat2.4%andindustrialproductiongrowsat2.3%.

Expenditures. Privaterealfixedinvestmentgrowthaverages4.9%and5.3%in2014and2015,

respectively,ledbyindustrialandtransportationequipmentin2014andbyabroadarrayof

equipmentcategories

in

2015.

Real

consumption

expenditures

grow

at

2.2%

in

2014,

the

same

rateasrealGDP,butriseabovetherealGDPgrowthratein2015to2.5%.Durablegoods

expendituresdriveconsumptionspendinginbothyears.Exportgrowthis3.2%and2.9%over

2014and2015,respectively,whileimportgrowthis3.4%and2.6%overthesametwoyears.

Totalgovernmentexpendituresfallby0.2%in2014,butincreaseby0.2%in2015.

U.S.Employment,Housing,andPrices. Projectedgrowthinnonfarmemploymentaverages

1.8%inboth2014and2015.Thisisaccompaniedbyagraduallydecliningunemploymentrate

thatreaches5.7%attheendof2015.Theemploymentgrowthin2014and2015isthesameas

projectedlastmonth,whilethedeclineintheunemploymentratehasslowed.Housingstarts

growatanaverageof7.4%and16.6%in2014and2015,respectively.Bothconsumerand

producerprice

indexes

increase

at

amoderate

pace,

and

wages

continue

to

show

modest

gains.

ThisreportwaspreparedbytheU.S.EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),thestatistical

andanalyticalagencywithintheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy.Bylaw,EIA'sdata,analyses,and

forecastsareindependentofapprovalbyanyotherofficeroremployeeoftheUnitedStates

Government.Theviewsinthisreportthereforeshouldnotbeconstruedasrepresenting

thoseoftheU.S.DepartmentofEnergyorotherfederalagencies.


13/48

Chart Gallery for December 2014

Short-Term Energy Outlook

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

Jan 2013 Jul 2013 Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Pricedollars per barrel

Historical spot priceSTEO price forecastNYMEX futures price95% NYMEX futures upper confidence interval95% NYMEX futures lower confidence interval

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2014.

Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending Dec. 4,2014. Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in near-the-money options contracts.

Forecast

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.004.50

5.00

Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015

U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Pricesdollars per gallon

Price difference

Retail regular gasoline

Crude oil


Crude oil price is composite refiner acquisition cost. Retail prices include state and federal taxes.


14/48

Forecast

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00


U.S. Diesel Fuel and Crude Oil Pricesdollars per gallon

Price difference

Retail diesel fuel

Crude oil


Crude oil price is composite refiner acquisition cost. Retail prices include state and federal taxes.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan 2013 Jul 2013 Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015

Henry Hub Natural Gas Pricedollars per million Btu

Historical spot price

STEO forecast price

NYMEX futures price

95% NYMEX futures upper confidence interval

95% NYMEX futures lower confidence interval


Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending Dec. 4,

2014. Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in near-the-money options contracts.

Forecast

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1618

20


U.S. Natural Gas Pricesdollars per thousand cubic feet

Residential price

Henry Hub spot price



15/48

Forecast

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

2009-Q1 2010-Q1 2011-Q1 2012-Q1 2013-Q1 2014-Q1 2015-Q1

World Liquid Fuels Production andConsumption Balancemillion barrels per day (MMbbl/d)

Implied stock change and balance (right axis)

World production (left axis)

World consumption (left axis)


MMbbl/d

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan 2011 Jul 2011 Jan 2012 Jul 2012 Jan 2013 Ju l 2013 Jan 2014 Jul 2014

Estimated Historical Unplanned OPECCrude Oil Production Outagesmillion barrels per day

Saudi Arabia

Kuwait

Iraq

Nigeria

Libya

Iran


0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014

Estimated Histor ical Unplanned Non-OPECLiquid Fuels Production Outagesmillion barrels per day Indonesia

Gabon

United States

Mexico

Colombia

Argentina

Australia

Brazil

Canada

North Sea

Yemen

China

Syria

Sudan / S. Sudan



16/48

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

World Liquid Fuels Consumptionmillion barrels per day (MMbbl/d)

Change in U.S. consumption (right axis)

Change in China consumption (right axis)

Change in other consumption (right axis)

Total world consumption (left axis)

annual change (MMbbl/d)


-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2013 2014 2015

World Liquid Fuels Consumption Growthmillion barrels per day

OECD* Non-OECD Asia Former Soviet Union Other

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2014.* Countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

Forecast

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2013 2014 2015

OPEC countries North America Russia and Caspian Sea

Latin America North Sea Other Non-OPEC

World Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growthmillion barrels per day


Forecast


17/48

-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0

UnitedStates

Canada

Brazil

China

Sudan/S.

Sudan

Oman

Russia

Kazakhstan

Colombia

Malaysia

India

Gabon

Vietnam

OtherNorthSea

Australia

Egypt

Norway

Mexico

Syria

Azerbaijan

UnitedKingdom

2015

2014

2013

Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growthmillion barrels per day


Forecast

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

2011-Q1 2012-Q1 2013-Q1 2014-Q1 2015-Q1-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8 World oil consumption growth (left axis)

Non-OPEC production growth (left axis)

Change in WTI price (right axis)

World Consumption and Non-OPEC Production Growthmillion barrels per day dollars per barrel


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

OPEC surplus crude oil production capacitymillion barrels per day


Note: Shaded area represents 2003-2013 average (2.2 million barrels per day).

Forecast


18/48

Forecast

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015

OECD Commercial Crude Oil Stocksdays of supply


Note: Colored band around crude oil stocks days of supply represents the range between theminimum and maximum from Jan. 2009 - Dec. 2013.

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

2012 2013 2014 2015

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Productionmillion barrels per day (MMbbl/d)

Crude oil (right axis) Natural gas plant liquids (right axis)

Fuel ethanol (right axis) Biodiesel (right axis)

Total production (left axis) Production forecast (left axis)



Forecast

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425


U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Stocksmillion barrels


Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum andmaximum from Jan. 2009 - Dec. 2013.


19/48

-0.30

-0.15

0.00

0.15

0.30

0.45

0.60

0.75

2012 2013 2014 2015

16.5

17.0

17.5

18.0

18.5

19.0

19.5

20.0

U.S. Liquid Fuels Product Suppli edmillion barrels per day (MMbbl/d)

Motor gasoline (right axis) Jet fuel (right axis)

Distillate fuel (right axis) Other fuels (right axis)

Total product supplied (left axis) Product suppl ied forecast (left axis)



Forecast

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260


U.S. Gasoline and Distil late Inventoriesmillion barrels


Note: Colored bands around storage levels represent the range between the minimum and

maximum from Jan. 2009 - Dec. 2013.

Total motor gasoline inventory

Total distillate fuel inventory

-3-2-1012345678

2012 2013 2014 2015

0102030405060708090

100110

U.S. Natural Gas Consumptionbillion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d)

Electric power (right axis) Residential and comm. (right axis)Industrial (right axis) Other (right axis)Total consumption (left axis) Consumption forecast (left axis)

annual change (Bcf/d)



20/48

-2

-10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2012 2013 2014 2015

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

U.S. Natural Gas Product ion and Importsbillion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d)

Federal Gulf of Mexico production (right axis) U.S. non-Gulf of Mexico production (right axis)

U.S. net imports (right axis) Total marketed production (left axis)

Marketed production forecast (left axis)

annual change (Bcf/d)


Forecast

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000


U.S. Working Natural Gas in Storagebillion cubic feet

Deviation from average

Storage level

deviation from average


Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimumand maximum from Jan. 2009 - Dec. 2013.

-120

-90

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

120150

180

2012 2013 2014 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8090

100

U.S. Coal Consumptionmillion short tons (MMst)

Electric power (right axis) Retail and general industry (right axis)

Coke plants (right axis) Total consumption (left axis)

Consumption forecast (left axis)

annual change (MMst)



21/48

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

2012 2013 2014 2015

0

20

40

60

80

100

U.S. Coal Producti onmillion short tons (MMst)

Western region (right axis) Appalachian region (right axis)Interior region (right axis) Total production (left axis)Production forecast (left axis)

annual change (MMst)


Forecast

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014

U.S. Electric Power Coal Stocksmillion short tons


Note: Colored band around stock levels represents the range between the minimum

and maximum from Jan. 2006 - Dec. 2013.

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

2012 2013 2014 2015

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

U.S. Electricity Consumptionmillion kilowatthours per day (kWh/d)

Residential (right axis) Commercial and transportation (right axis)

Industrial (right axis) Direct use (right axis)

Total consumption (left axis) Consumption forecast (left axis)

annual change (million kWh/d)



22/48

3.2% 2.6%

5.4%

10.3%

2.4%

5.7%

2.2%

0.3%1.6%

1.4%

2.0% 3.0% 1.7%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

24%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

U.S. Residential Electricity Pricecents per kilowatthour

Annual growth (right axis) Residential electricity price Price forecast


20.1% 21.6% 21.4% 23.3% 23.9%24.7% 30.3% 27.4% 27.1% 27.6%

49.0% 48.5% 48.2% 44.4%44.8% 42.3% 37.4% 39.1% 39.4%

38.9%

Forecast

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, All Sectorsthousand megawatthours per day

Coal

Natural gas

Petroleum

Nuclear

Hydropower

Renewables

Other sources


Note: Labels show percentage share of total generation provided by coal and natural gas.

Forecast

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

89

10

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

U.S. Renewable Energy Supp lyquadrillion British thermal units (Btu)

Solar

Geothermal

Other biomass

Wind power

Liquid biofuels

Wood biomass

Hydropower


Note: Hydropower excludes pumped storage generation. Liquid biofuels include ethanol and biodiesel. Otherbiomass includes municipal waste from biogenic sources, landfill gas, and other non-wood waste.


23/48

Forecast

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

U.S. Annual Energy Expendituresshare of gross domestic product


Forecast

-15%

-12%

-9%

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

2012 2013 2014 2015

U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissionsannual growth

All fossil fuels Coal Petroleum Natural gasSource: Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2014.

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%30%

35%

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105110

115


U.S. Total Industrial Production Indexindex (2007 = 100)

Change from prior year (right axis)

Industrial production index (left axis)


change


24/48

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

10,000

10,400

10,800

11,200

11,600

12,000

12,400

12,800


U.S. Disposable Incomebillion 2009 dollars, seasonally adjusted

Change from prior year (right axis)

Real disposable income (left axis)


change

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

April May June July August September

U.S. Summer Cooling Degree Dayspopulation-weighted

2012

2013

2014

2015


Note: EIA calculations based on from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data. Horizontal lines

indicate each month's prior 10-year average (2005-2014). Projections reflect NOAA's 14-16 month outlook.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800900

1000

October November December January February March

U.S. Winter Heating Degree Dayspopulation-weighted

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15


Note: EIA calculations based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data. Horizontal linesindicate each month's prior 10-year average (Oct 2004 - Mar 2014). Projections reflect NOAA's 14-16 month outlook.


25/48

U.S. Census Regions and Divisi ons



26/48

07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 % Change

Natural Gas

Northeast

Consumption (Mcf**) 75.2 80.3 75.7 80.7 66.4 76.0 84.1 77.3 -8.1

Price ($/mcf) 15.18 15.83 13.31 12.66 12.21 11.74 11.57 12.12 4.7

Expenditures ($) 1,141 1,272 1,007 1,022 812 893 973 936 -3.7

Midwest

Consumption (Mcf) 78.2 80.7 78.6 80.2 65.4 77.6 88.1 79.1 -10.2 Price ($/mcf) 11.40 11.47 9.44 9.23 8.99 8.36 8.70 8.83 1.5

Expenditures ($) 892 926 742 740 587 648 766 698 -8.9

South Consumption (Mcf) 44.6 47.3 53.3 49.3 40.9 46.5 52.2 49.4 -5.3

Price ($/mcf) 14.18 14.07 11.52 11.02 11.45 10.71 10.79 11.12 3.1

Expenditures ($) 632 665 614 544 468 498 563 550 -2.3

West

Consumption (Mcf) 48.6 46.3 48.0 47.7 47.3 46.9 44.9 43.8 -2.4

Price ($/mcf) 11.31 10.86 9.92 9.67 9.35 9.13 9.96 10.01 0.5

Expenditures ($) 550 502 476 461 442 428 448 439 -2.0

U.S. Average

Consumption (Mcf) 62.0 63.7 63.9 64.5 55.2 62.0 67.6 62.6 -7.5

Price ($/mcf) 12.72 12.87 10.83 10.46 10.25 9.73 9.99 10.26 2.7

Expenditures ($) 789 820 692 675 566 603 675 642 -5.0

Heating Oil

U.S. Average

Consumption (gallons) 537.7 576.5 544.5 580.5 471.0 545.3 607.3 556.5 -8.4

Price ($/gallon) 3.33 2.65 2.85 3.38 3.73 3.87 3.88 3.09 -20.2

Expenditures ($) 1,789 1,530 1,551 1,965 1,756 2,113 2,354 1,722 -26.8

Electricity

Northeast

Consumption (kWh***) 6,835 7,063 6,847 7,076 6,436 6,862 7,222 6,917 -4.2

Price ($/kwh) 0.145 0.152 0.152 0.154 0.154 0.152 0.163 0.168 2.7

Expenditures ($) 988 1,071 1,040 1,091 993 1,046 1,179 1,160 -1.6

Midwest

Consumption (kWh) 8,631 8,751 8,660 8,733 7,897 8,588 9,168 8,669 -5.5

Price ($/kwh) 0.090 0.097 0.099 0.105 0.111 0.111 0.112 0.116 3.6

Expenditures ($) 774 851 856 914 875 955 1,024 1,004 -2.0

South Consumption (kWh) 7,778 8,057 8,486 8,224 7,471 7,978 8,389 8,186 -2.4

Price ($/kwh) 0.098 0.109 0.103 0.104 0.107 0.107 0.109 0.112 3.0

Expenditures ($) 765 878 874 856 798 851 912 917 0.5

West

Consumption (kWh) 7,153 6,968 7,101 7,083 7,054 7,017 6,870 6,793 -1.1

Price ($/kwh) 0.104 0.107 0.110 0.112 0.115 0.119 0.124 0.125 1.5

Expenditures ($) 742 743 784 794 809 836 849 852 0.4

U.S. Average

Consumption (kWh) 7,557 7,701 7,909 7,817 7,225 7,645 7,965 7,726 -3.0

Price ($/kwh) 0.104 0.112 0.110 0.113 0.116 0.117 0.120 0.123 2.8

Expenditures ($) 787 864 870 881 839 892 952 949 -0.3

Table WF01. Average Consumer Prices and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the WinterU.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - December 2014

Fuel / RegionForecastWinter of


27/48

07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 % Change

Table WF01. Average Consumer Prices and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the WinterU.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - December 2014

Fuel / RegionForecastWinter of

Propane

Northeast

Consumption (gallons) 648.0 690.1 648.1 692.7 573.3 651.9 745.4 688.0 -7.7

Price* ($/gallon) 2.93 2.84 2.98 3.24 3.34 3.00 3.56 3.08 -13.5

Expenditures ($) 1,897 1,961 1,933 2,241 1,916 1,959 2,654 2,119 -20.1

Midwest

Consumption (gallons) 774.6 795.0 779.6 791.8 644.3 766.4 868.6 780.4 -10.2 Price* ($/gallon) 2.25 2.11 1.99 2.11 2.23 1.74 2.61 1.93 -26.1

Expenditures ($) 1,744 1,678 1,548 1,674 1,437 1,333 2,267 1,506 -33.6

Number of households by primary space heating fuel (thousands)

Northeast

Natural gas 10,714 10,889 10,992 11,118 11,236 11,369 11,511 11,632 1.0

Heating oil 6,520 6,280 6,016 5,858 5,701 5,466 5,248 5,055 -3.7

Propane 704 713 733 744 761 816 836 827 -1.1

Electricity 2,550 2,563 2,645 2,776 2,894 3,012 3,070 3,134 2.1

Wood 414 474 501 512 548 579 605 646 6.9

Midwest

Natural gas 18,366 18,288 18,050 17,977 18,019 18,047 17,960 17,891 -0.4

Heating oil 534 491 451 419 393 360 334 311 -6.8

Propane 2,181 2,131 2,098 2,073 2,037 2,065 2,062 2,003 -2.9 Electricity 4,469 4,570 4,715 4,922 5,119 5,316 5,489 5,626 2.5

Wood 528 584 616 618 631 635 655 696 6.2

South

Natural gas 14,061 13,958 13,731 13,657 13,636 13,702 13,622 13,450 -1.3

Heating oil 1,051 956 906 853 790 741 693 648 -6.5

Propane 2,356 2,220 2,165 2,098 2,024 1,990 1,893 1,772 -6.4

Electricity 24,662 25,258 25,791 26,555 27,283 27,832 28,406 29,058 2.3

Wood 558 593 586 599 609 611 625 635 1.7

West

Natural gas 15,084 15,027 14,939 15,020 15,021 14,998 15,018 15,084 0.4

Heating oil 316 294 289 279 261 246 237 229 -3.1

Propane 942 936 940 914 885 911 915 878 -4.1

Electricity 7,651 7,768 7,877 8,126 8,439 8,650 8,831 9,043 2.4

Wood 679 703 721 725 736 730 726 734 1.1

U.S. Totals

Natural gas 58,226 58,162 57,713 57,771 57,912 58,115 58,111 58,057 -0.1

Heating oil 8,422 8,021 7,662 7,408 7,145 6,812 6,511 6,244 -4.1

Propane 6,184 5,999 5,936 5,829 5,707 5,782 5,707 5,479 -4.0

Electricity 39,332 40,159 41,029 42,380 43,734 44,810 45,795 46,861 2.3

Wood 2,179 2,353 2,424 2,454 2,524 2,554 2,610 2,711 3.9

Heating degree days Northeast 4,914 5,313 4,933 5,337 4,217 4,964 5,596 5,065 -9.5

Midwest 5,603 5,810 5,639 5,773 4,484 5,544 6,452 5,675 -12.0

South 2,279 2,493 2,870 2,632 2,023 2,431 2,790 2,614 -6.3

West 3,196 2,994 3,138 3,118 3,087 3,041 2,871 2,772 -3.5

U.S. Average 3,696 3,840 3,903 3,907 3,191 3,689 4,085 3,732 -8.6

*** kilowatthour

* Prices exclude taxes

** thousand cubic feet

Note: Winter covers the period October 1 through March 31. Fuel prices are nominal prices. Fuel consumption per household is based only

on households that use that fuel as the primary space-heating fuel. Included in fuel consumption is consumption for water heating,appliances, and lighting (electricity). Per-household consumption based on an average of EIA 2005 and 2009 Residential Energy

Consumption Surveys corrected for actual and projected heating degree days. Number of households using heating oil includes kerosene.


28/48

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2013 2014 2015

Energy Supply

Crude Oil Production (a)

million barrels per day) ......................... 7.11 7.29 7.56 7.79 8.06 8.54 8.74 9.04 9.27 9.37 9.26 9.36 7.44 8.60 9.32

Dry Natural Gas Production

billion cubic feet per day) ..................... 65.58 66.07 67.43 67.57 67.83 69.33 71.12 71.70 71.94 71.94 72.07 72.47 66.67 70.01 72.11

Coal Production

million short tons) ................................ 245 243 257 239 245 246 252 253 254 237 255 250 984 996 995

Energy Consumption

iquid Fuels

million barrels per day) ......................... 18.64 18.72 19.21 19.26 18.81 18.71 19.16 19.15 18.89 18.98 19.32 19.20 18.96 18.96 19.10

Natural Gas

billion cubic feet per day) ..................... 88.47 59.95 61.03 77.16 95.50 61.20 61.89 77.23 90.66 62.64 63.74 76.78 71.59 73.87 73.39

Coal (b)

million short tons) ................................ 229 216 253 226 249 213 247 226 239 210 255 226 925 934 931

Electricity

billion kilowatt hours per day) ............... 10.39 10.03 11.55 10.00 10.91 10.03 11.45 10.09 10.80 10.10 11.74 10.14 10.50 10.62 10.70

Renewables (c)

quadrillion Btu) ..................................... 2.28 2.50 2.26 2.31 2.36 2.57 2.28 2.31 2.42 2.62 2.39 2.42 9.35 9.52 9.84

Total Energy Consumption (d)quadrillion Btu) ..................................... 25.52 22.99 24.21 25.07 26.71 23.13 24.10 24.75 25.88 23.14 24.35 24.79 97.79 98.69 98.17

Energy Prices

Crude Oil (e)

dollars per barrel) ................................. 101.14 99.45 105.24 95.97 97.56 101.02 96.33 74.30 59.33 57.34 63.97 66.33 100.46 92.30 61.78

Natural Gas Henry Hub Spot

dollars per million Btu) .......................... 3.49 4.01 3.55 3.85 5.21 4.61 3.96 4.00 3.95 3.63 3.77 3.97 3.73 4.44 3.83

Coal

dollars per million Btu) .......................... 2.35 2.37 2.33 2.34 2.33 2.39 2.37 2.35 2.36 2.36 2.35 2.36 2.35 2.36 2.36

Macroeconomic

Real Gross Domestic Product

billion chained 2009 dollars - SAAR) ..... 15,538 15,607 15,780 15,916 15,832 16,010 16,151 16,215 16,296 16,382 16,489 16,576 15,710 16,052 16,436

Percent change from prior year .............. 1.7 1.8 2.3 3.1 1.9 2.6 2.3 1.9 2.9 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.4

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

ndex, 2009=100) ................................. 106.2 106.5 106.9 107.3 107.7 108.3 108.6 109.2 109.8 110.2 110.6 111.3 106.7 108.4 110.5


Real Disposable Personal Income

billion chained 2009 dollars - SAAR) ..... 11,539 11,647 11,706 11,712 11,810 11,937 12,016 12,084 12,147 12,206 12,284 12,360 11,651 11,962 12,249

Percent change from prior year .............. -0.1 0.3 0.9 -1.9 2.4 2.5 2.6 3.2 2.9 2.3 2.2 2.3 -0.2 2.7 2.4

Manufacturing Production Index

ndex, 2007=100) ................................. 97.1 97.5 97.9 99.0 99.4 101.1 102.1 102.8 102.9 103.4 104.2 105.1 97.9 101.4 103.9


Weather

U.S. Heating Degree-Days .................... 2,200 509 76 1,646 2,439 479 80 1,600 2,132 475 76 1,540 4,431 4,598 4,223

U.S. Cooling Degree-Days .................... 37 378 803 87 34 392 773 97 38 391 846 94 1,304 1,297 1,368

Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - December 20142013 2014 2015 Year

Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208; Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380; Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130;

= no data available

Prices are not adjusted for inflation.

a) Includes lease condensate.

b) Total consumption includes Independent Power Producer (IPP) consumption.

c) Renewable energy includes minor components of non-marketed renewable energy that is neither bought nor sold, either directly or indirectly, as inputs to marketed energy.

EIA does not estimate or project end-use consumption of non-marketed renewable energy.

d) The conversion from physical units to Btu is calculated using a subset of conversion factors used in the calculations of gross energy consumption in EIAs Monthly Energy Review

Consequently, the historical data may not precisely match those published in the MER or the Annual Energy Review (AER).

e) Refers to the refiner average acquisition cost (RAC) of crude oil.

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109;

Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; Quarterly Coal Report , DOE/EIA-0121; and International Petroleum Monthly , DOE/EIA-0520.

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.

Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model. Macroeconomic projections are based on Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy.

Weather projections from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.


29/48


Crude Oil (dollars per barrel)

West Texas Intermediate Spot Average ........................... 94 .34 94.10 105.84 97.34 98.75 103.35 97.78 75.40 60.33 58.33 65.00 67.33 97.91 93.82 62.7

Brent Spot Average ..................... .................... ................. 112.49 102.58 110.27 109.21 108.17 109.70 101.82 78.48 65.00 63.67 70.67 73.00 108.64 99.54 68.0

Imported Average ................... .................... ..................... . 98.71 97.39 103.07 92.95 94.10 98.59 94.00 72.24 56.85 54.83 61.49 63.84 98.12 89.95 59.2

Refiner Average Acquisition Cost .................. .................. 101.14 99.45 105.24 95.97 97.56 101.02 96.33 74.30 59.33 57.34 63.97 66.33 100.46 92.30 61.7

iquid Fuels (cents per gallon)

Refiner Prices for Resale

Gasoline ................... ..................... .................... ............ 289 290 288 259 272 298 276 212 182 192 199 186 281 264 19

Diesel Fuel .................... ..................... .................... ....... 312 295 306 299 303 300 288 240 208 204 219 224 303 283 21

Heating Oil .................. ..................... ..................... ........ 308 276 295 296 303 289 276 224 204 190 203 218 297 268 20

Refiner Prices to End Users

Jet Fuel .................... .................... ..................... ............ 316 287 298 294 297 295 289 237 204 199 211 218 298 279 20

No. 6 Residual Fuel Oil (a) .................. .................... ...... 252 244 247 250 249 244 243 203 159 146 159 168 248 234 15

Retail Prices Includ ing Taxes

Gasoline Regular Grade (b) ..................... .................... . 357 360 357 329 340 368 350 290 253 261 267 257 351 337 26

Gasoline All Grades (b) ................... ..................... ......... 363 367 364 337 348 375 358 298 261 269 275 265 358 345 26

On-highway Diesel Fuel .................... .................... ........ 403 388 391 387 396 394 384 355 305 298 309 317 392 382 30

Heating Oil .................. ..................... ..................... ........ 389 365 366 373 397 382 369 325 299 282 286 299 378 370 29

Natural Gas

Henry Hub Spot (dollars per thousand cubic feet) .......... 3.59 4.13 3.66 3.97 5.36 4.75 4.08 4.12 4.07 3.74 3.88 4.09 3.84 4.58 3.9

Henry Hub Spot (dollars per Million Btu) ...... ................... 3.49 4.01 3.55 3.85 5.21 4.61 3.96 4.00 3.95 3.63 3.77 3.97 3.73 4.44 3.8

End-Use Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)

Industrial Sector ............................................................ 4.57 4.95 4.38 4.68 6.17 5.60 5.06 5.11 5.22 4.55 4.66 5.06 4.64 5.50 4.8

Commercial Sector .................. .................... ................. 7.77 8.53 8.96 7.96 8.66 9.61 9.67 8.82 8.92 8.97 9.46 8.96 8.08 8.95 9.0

Residential Sector .................. ..................... .................. 9.24 11.90 16.13 9.90 9.83 13.18 16.93 10.62 9.78 12.44 16.37 10.90 10.30 10.97 10.9

Electricity

Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)

Coal .................. .................... ..................... .................... 2.35 2.37 2.33 2.34 2.33 2.39 2.37 2.35 2.36 2.36 2.35 2.36 2.35 2.36 2.3

Natural Gas .................... ..................... .................... ..... 4.35 4.56 4.06 4.41 6.82 4.93 4.25 4.89 4.83 4.29 4.43 4.86 4.32 5.12 4.5

Residual Fuel Oil (c) ................... ..................... ............. 19.37 19.83 18.76 19.47 19.95 20.44 19.98 17.15 14.12 12.67 12.49 12.70 19.33 19.49 12.9

Distillate Fuel Oil ................... .................... .................... 23.44 22.62 23.23 22.97 23.39 22.74 21.93 18.84 17.47 16.78 17.62 18.79 23.08 22.21 17.6

End-Use Prices (cents per kilowatthour)

Industrial Sector ................... ..................... .................... 6.55 6.79 7.24 6.67 7.02 6.94 7.36 6.84 6.75 6.98 7.42 6.85 6.82 7.05 7.0

Commercial Sector .................. .................... ................. 9.96 10.33 10.68 10.14 10.57 10.63 11.11 10.47 10.55 10.88 11.33 10.69 10.29 10.71 10.8

Residential Sector .................. ..................... .................. 11.56 12.31 12.54 12.01 11.90 12.73 13.00 12.28 12.28 12.92 13.12 12.41 12.12 12.47 12.6

c) Includes fuel oils No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, and topped crude.

Table 2. U.S. Energy Prices

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - December 2014

2013 2014 2015 Year

= no data available

Prices are not adjusted for inflation.

a) Average for all sulfur contents.

b) Average self-service cash price.

Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Notes:The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

Prices exclude taxes unless otherwise noted.

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;

Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208; Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Monthly Energy Review , DOE/EIA-0035.

WTI and Brent crude oils, and Henry Hub natural gas spot prices from Reuter's News Service (http://www.reuters.com).Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.


30/48


upply (million barrels per day) (a)

OECD ................................................. 23.09 23.27 23.89 24.51 24.93 25.40 25.67 25.93 26.17 26.19 26.29 26.68 23.70 25.49 26.33

U.S. (50 States) ............................... 11.68 12.11 12.63 12.94 13.05 13.85 14.20 14.47 14.65 14.92 14.94 15.05 12.34 13.90 14.89

Canada ............................................ 4.12 3.86 4.11 4.31 4.37 4.32 4.36 4.39 4.42 4.30 4.45 4.69 4.10 4.36 4.47

Mexico ............................................. 2.93 2.89 2.88 2.90 2.91 2.89 2.86 2.83 2.86 2.84 2.81 2.78 2.90 2.87 2.82

North Sea (b) ................................... 2.88 2.87 2.72 2.85 3.05 2.80 2.69 2.69 2.70 2.59 2.52 2.61 2.83 2.80 2.60

Other OECD .................................... 1.49 1.54 1.56 1.50 1.54 1.55 1.57 1.56 1.55 1.55 1.57 1.55 1.52 1.56 1.55

Non-OECD ......................................... 65.90 66.87 66.80 66.27 66.02 66.32 66.89 66.65 65.92 66.50 67.05 66.19 66.46 66.47 66.42

OPEC .............................................. 35.97 36.47 36.21 35.46 35.94 35.70 36.15 36.05 35.90 35.90 36.19 35.68 36.03 35.96 35.92

Crude Oil Portion ........... ........... .... 29.85 30.38 30.12 29.34 29.79 29.54 30.04 29.98 29.72 29.67 29.93 29.38 29.92 29.84 29.67

Other Liquids .......... ........... ........... 6.12 6.09 6.09 6.12 6.15 6.16 6.12 6.08 6.19 6.22 6.26 6.29 6.11 6.13 6.24Eurasia ............................................ 13.52 13.45 13.50 13.73 13.64 13.57 13.59 13.62 13.54 13.51 13.53 13.49 13.55 13.61 13.52

China ............................................... 4.45 4.49 4.38 4.52 4.46 4.49 4.42 4.49 4.48 4.51 4.51 4.52 4.46 4.46 4.50

Other Non-OECD ........... ........... ...... 11.96 12.45 12.72 12.57 11.98 12.56 12.73 12.48 12.00 12.59 12.82 12.51 12.43 12.44 12.48

Total World Supply ............................. 88.99 90.14 90.70 90.78 90.95 91.72 92.57 92.58 92.09 92.69 93.34 92.87 90.16 91.96 92.75

Non-OPEC Supply ........... ........... ........ 53.02 53.66 54.49 55.32 55.00 56.02 56.41 56.53 56.19 56.79 57.15 57.19 54.13 56.00 56.84

Consumption (million barrels per day) (c)

OECD ................................................. 45.87 45.55 46.35 46.50 45.72 44.77 46.15 46.68 46.14 44.96 45.83 46.27 46.07 45.83 45.80

U.S. (50 States) ............................... 18.64 18.72 19.21 19.26 18.81 18.71 19.16 19.15 18.89 18.98 19.32 19.20 18.96 18.96 19.10

U.S. Territories ................................ 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.32 0.34 0.36

Canada ............ ........... ........... .......... 2.45 2.40 2.43 2.42 2.42 2.35 2.41 2.35 2.34 2.28 2.39 2.37 2.42 2.38 2.34

Europe ............................................. 13.18 13.80 13.96 13.52 12.99 13.38 13.88 13.74 13.35 13.08 13.52 13.48 13.62 13.50 13.36

Japan ............................................... 5.05 4.08 4.28 4.72 5.02 3.87 4.08 4.54 4.69 3.95 3.98 4.35 4.53 4.37 4.24

Other OECD .................................... 6.22 6.23 6.14 6.26 6.14 6.11 6.29 6.56 6.50 6.32 6.26 6.50 6.21 6.28 6.39

Non-OECD ......................................... 43.52 44.45 44.87 44.80 44.54 45.88 46.26 45.71 45.29 46.89 47.22 46.65 44.41 45.60 46.52

Eurasia ............................................ 4.56 4.49 4.76 4.74 4.63 4.56 4.77 4.75 4.48 4.41 4.67 4.66 4.64 4.68 4.56Europe ............................................. 0.70 0.71 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.71 0.73 0.73 0.71 0.72 0.74 0.74 0.71 0.72 0.73

China ............................................... 10.50 10.56 10.51 10.87 10.58 11.16 11.11 11.07 10.92 11.52 11.47 11.43 10.61 10.98 11.34

Other Asia ........................................ 11.14 11.36 10.94 11.23 11.39 11.62 11.18 11.48 11.64 11.87 11.42 11.72 11.17 11.42 11.66

Other Non-OECD ........... ........... ...... 16.63 17.33 17.93 17.24 17.24 17.83 18.46 17.68 17.54 18.36 18.91 18.11 17.29 17.80 18.23

Total World Consumption ........... ........ 89.39 90.00 91.21 91.30 90.26 90.66 92.41 92.40 91.42 91.85 93.05 92.92 90.48 91.44 92.32

nventory Net Withdrawals (million barrels per day)

U.S. (50 States) .................................. 0.16 -0.28 -0.16 0.78 0.09 -0.67 -0.17 0.41 -0.05 -0.40 -0.14 0.48 0.13 -0.08 -0.02

Other OECD ............ ........... ........... ..... -0.23 0.35 -0.27 0.67 -0.26 -0.03 -0.09 -0.22 -0.23 -0.16 -0.05 -0.16 0.13 -0.15 -0.15

Other Stock Draws and Balance ........ 0.46 -0.20 0.94 -0.93 -0.52 -0.37 0.10 -0.37 -0.38 -0.29 -0.10 -0.27 0.07 -0.29 -0.26

Total Stock Draw ............................. 0.40 -0.13 0.52 0.52 -0.68 -1.06 -0.16 -0.19 -0.67 -0.84 -0.29 0.05 0.33 -0.52 -0.43

nd-of-period Inventories (million b arrels)

U.S. Commercial Inventory ........... ..... 1,097 1,123 1,137 1,065 1,057 1,123 1,139 1,101 1,106 1,142 1,155 1,110 1,065 1,101 1,110

OECD Commercial Inventory ............. 2,651 2,646 2,685 2,551 2,567 2,635 2,658 2,642 2,667 2,718 2,735 2,705 2,551 2,642 2,705

a) Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.

Table 3a. International Petroleum and Other Liquids Production, Consumption, and Inventories


= no data available

OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland,

France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,

Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.

Projections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

b) Includes offshore supply from Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and the United Kingdom.

c) Consumption of petroleum by the OECD countries is synonymous with "petroleum product supplied," defined in the glossary of the EIAPetroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109.

Consumption of petroleum by the non-OECD countries is "apparent consumption," which includes internal consumption, refinery fuel and loss, and bunkering.


Historical data:Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics.



31/48


North America ..................................................... 18.73 18.87 19.62 20.15 20.34 21.05 21.41 21.69 21.93 22.05 22.20 22.52 19.35 21.13 22.18

Canada .................................................................. 4.12 3.86 4.11 4.31 4.37 4.32 4.36 4.39 4.42 4.30 4.45 4.69 4.10 4.36 4.47

Mexico ................................................................... 2.93 2.89 2.88 2.90 2.91 2.89 2.86 2.83 2.86 2.84 2.81 2.78 2.90 2.87 2.82

United States ......................................................... 1 1.68 12.11 12.63 12.94 13.05 13.85 14.20 14.47 14.65 14.92 14.94 15.05 12.34 13.90 14.89

Central and South Amer ica . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 4 .42 4.94 5.25 5.03 4.54 5.15 5.39 5.06 4.59 5.20 5.43 5.10 4.91 5.04 5.08

Argentina ............................................................... 0.69 0.70 0.72 0.72 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.73 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.71 0.71 0.72

razil ..................................................................... 2.21 2.74 3.01 2.81 2.34 2.97 3.17 2.83 2.36 3.00 3.19 2.85 2.69 2.83 2.85

Colombia ............................................................... 1.03 1.02 1.04 1.03 1.02 0.99 1.02 1.03 1.02 0.99 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.02 1.01

Other Central and S. America ................................ 0.49 0.48 0.48 0.47 0.49 0.49 0.48 0.48 0.50 0.50 0.49 0.49 0.48 0.48 0.49

urope ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 3.84 3.83 3.70 3.83 4.03 3.79 3.67 3.66 3.66 3.54 3.47 3.56 3.80 3.79 3.56

Norway .................................................................. 1.82 1.82 1.80 1.82 1.94 1.78 1.86 1.77 1.82 1.79 1.77 1.85 1.81 1.84 1.81

United Kingdom (offshore) ..................................... 0.85 0.86 0.74 0.86 0.93 0.85 0.64 0.71 0.68 0.63 0.58 0.59 0.83 0.78 0.62

Other North Sea .................................................... 0.21 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.19 0.21 0.20 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.19 0.19 0.18

urasia ................................................................. 13.54 13.47 13.51 13.74 13.65 13.59 13.60 13.64 13.55 13.52 13.54 13.51 13.56 13.62 13.53

Azerbaijan ............................................................. 0.90 0.89 0.86 0.87 0.85 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.88 0.85 0.79

Kazakhstan ........................................................... 1.67 1.61 1.61 1.74 1.73 1.66 1.71 1.71 1.72 1.71 1.71 1.71 1.66 1.70 1.71

Russia ................................................................... 10.47 10.47 10.55 10.64 10.60 10.57 10.53 10.55 10.50 10.49 10.53 10.51 10.53 10.56 10.51

urkmenistan ......................................................... 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.26 0.28 0.29

Other Eurasia ........................................................ 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.20 0.21 0.23 0.25 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.23

Middle East . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 1.26 1.19 1.21 1.18 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.18 1.20 1.19 1.20 1.19 1.21 1.19 1.19

Oman .................................................................... 0.93 0.93 0.95 0.94 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.97 0.94 0.96 0.96

yria ...................................................................... 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.07 0.03 0.03

Yemen ................................................................... 0.17 0.11 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13

Asi a and Oc eania ............................................... 9.02 9.05 8.82 8.94 8.94 8.96 8.86 9.01 9.05 9.09 9.12 9.10 8.95 8.94 9.09

Australia ................................................................ 0.41 0.46 0.48 0.43 0.45 0.46 0.48 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.50 0.47 0.45 0.46 0.48

China ..................................................................... 4.45 4.49 4.38 4.52 4.46 4.49 4.42 4.49 4.48 4.51 4.51 4.52 4.46 4.46 4.50

ndia ...................................................................... 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.96 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.99

ndonesia ............................................................... 0.97 0.97 0.92 0.91 0.92 0.91 0.92 0.92 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.92 0.94

Malaysia ................................................................ 0.70 0.66 0.65 0.66 0.69 0.69 0.66 0.70 0.71 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.67 0.68 0.70

Vietnam ................................................................. 0.36 0.36 0.34 0.35 0.33 0.32 0.31 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.32 0.34

Afr ica ................................................................... 2.21 2.32 2.39 2.45 2.31 2.30 2.29 2.29 2.21 2.20 2.19 2.21 2.34 2.29 2.20

gypt ..................................................................... 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.64 0.63 0.62 0.61 0.69 0.66 0.63

quatorial Guinea .................................................. 0.28 0.28 0.30 0.31 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.29 0.27 0.24

Gabon ................................................................... 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.24

udan .................................................................... 0.11 0.24 0.30 0.35 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.25

otal non-OPEC liquids ...................................... 53.02 53.66 54.49 55.32 55.00 56.02 56.41 56.53 56.19 56.79 57.15 57.19 54.13 56.00 56.84

OPEC non-crude l iqu ids . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 6 .12 6.09 6.09 6.12 6.15 6.16 6.12 6.08 6.19 6.22 6.26 6.29 6.11 6.13 6.24Non-OPEC + OPEC non-crude .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 59.14 59.75 60.58 61.44 61.16 62.18 62.53 62.61 62.38 63.02 63.41 63.49 60.24 62.12 63.08

Unpl anned non -OPEC Pr oduc ti on Ou tages .. ..... 0.91 0.90 0.88 0.64 0.66 0.67 0.60 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.83 n/a n/a

Table 3b. Non-OPEC Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply (million barrels per day)


Historical data:Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics.


rojections: EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

= no data available

udan production represents total production from both north and south.

OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.


upply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, o ther liquids, and refinery processing gains.

Not all countries are shown in each region and sum of reported country volumes may not equal regional volumes.


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Crude Oil

Algeria ........................................................... 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.17 1.15 1.15 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 1.19 n/a

Angola ........................................................... 1.75 1.78 1.70 1.73 1.63 1.63 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 1.74

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