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Stochastic Analysis of Three VH-MDX Crash Scenarios
Glenn Horrocks
John Tonitto
BWRS
Scenarios
• Tower Logs
• Witness Report: Blenman
• Witness Report: 4wd party
Stochastic AnalysisStochastic Analysis
Scenario 1: Tower Logs
Nominal STD Source
Tower bearing at 19:36:00 320° 2° Log transcript
Tower range at 19:36:00 48NM 0.5NM Log transcript
Aircraft Heading 140° 10° Log transcript
Aircraft air speed at 19:36:00 145 knots 10 knots John Watson’s Cessna 210 operating envelope assessment
Aircraft air speed at stall 85 knots 10 knots John Watson’s Cessna 210 operating envelope assessment
Time of crash 19:39:27 35 seconds John Watson’s analysis
Wind speed at 8000’ 43 knots 10 knots John Watson’s analysis
Wind speed at 6000’ 33 knots 10 knots John Watson’s analysis
Wind direction 230° 10° John Watson’s analysis
Bank rate at 19:36:00 0°/s 0.1°/s GH and JT experience
Bank rate acceleration 0°/s2 0.02°/s2 GH and JT experience
Burraga Swamp
Mt Lumeah
Careys Peak Track
Allyn River
Paterson River
Burraga Swamp
Mt Lumeah
Scenario 2: Blenman
Nominal STD Source
Blenman’s Location 5540 4910 0 Eyewitness account – JT
Time of Blenman’s sighting 19:38:30 0 Eyewitness account – JT
Aircraft distance from Blenman
7km 0.5NM Eyewitness account – JT
Aircraft bearing from Blenman
240° 2° Eyewitness account – JT
Aircraft Heading 45° 30° Eyewitness account – JT
Aircraft air speed at 19:36:00 145 knots 10 knots John Watson’s Cessna 210 operating envelope assessment
Aircraft air speed at stall 85 knots 10 knots John Watson’s Cessna 210 operating envelope assessment
Time of crash 19:39:27 35 seconds John Watson’s analysis
Wind speed at 8000’ 43 knots 10 knots John Watson’s analysis
Wind speed at 6000’ 33 knots 10 knots John Watson’s analysis
Wind direction 230° 10° John Watson’s analysis
Bank rate at 19:36:00 0°/s 0.1°/s GH and JT experience
Bank rate acceleration 0°/s2 0.02°/s2 GH and JT experience
Burraga Swamp Paterson River Allyn River
Mt Lumeah
Scenario 3: 4wd
Nominal STD Source
Location at 19:31:10 4540 4010 0.5NM Eyewitness account – JT
Aircraft Heading 45° 30° Eyewitness account – JT
Aircraft air speed at 19:36:00 145 knots 10 knots John Watson’s Cessna 210 operating envelope assessment
Aircraft air speed at stall 85 knots 10 knots John Watson’s Cessna 210 operating envelope assessment
Time of crash 19:39:27 35 seconds John Watson’s analysis
Wind speed at 8000’ 43 knots 10 knots John Watson’s analysis
Wind speed at 6000’ 33 knots 10 knots John Watson’s analysis
Wind direction 230° 10° John Watson’s analysis
Bank rate at 19:36:00 0°/s 0.1°/s GH and JT experience
Bank rate acceleration 0°/s2 0.02°/s2 GH and JT experience
Burraga Swamp
Paterson River Allyn RiverWilliams River
Careys Peak Track
Rawdon Vale(25km W of Gloucester)
Burraga Swamp
Paterson River
Allyn River
Careys Peak Track
Mt Lumeah