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Stockholm Environment Institute
Natural Heritage Institute
CABY Watershed Modeling with WEAP
CABY Planning MeetingMay 6 2006David Purkey and David Yates
Application of WEAP to the American River Basin
Catchment Delineation
• Based on six digit hydrologic units (HUC6).
• HUCs were subdivided if necessary to calculate inflows to key reservoirs.
• In addition to 56 catchments in the American River Basin, the Camp Creek and Sly Park Creek catchments were added to compute inflow to Jenkinson Lake.
American River Basin
Major Streams in Basin
Model Catchments
Catchment Characterization
• Land was categorized using the SSURGO soils and the CALVEG vegetation databases.– Soils were classified as shallow or deep.
– Vegetation was classified as trees, shrubs, bare, urban, grassland, or wet.
• Resulting classifications were– Deep trees
– Shallow trees
– Deep shrubs
– Etc.
Modeled Rivers
Modeled Reservoirs
Aloha
Hell Hole
Loon Lake
Echo
French Meadows
Caples & SilverFolsom
Union Valley
Ice House
Sly Park
Stumpy Mdw
Modeled Transfers
Climate Data
• DAYMET.org (Univ. Montana & NCAR) – Daily, 1-km gridded data were mapped o the
centroids of each suib-catchment– Precipitation, temperature, humidity, and wind.
• Data were developed using observed climate data and terrain models.
Middle Fork Project
Upper American Project
El Dorado Irrigation District
Calibration Results
North Fork American at North Fork Dam
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
O N D J F M A M J J A S
Date
Acr
e-F
eet
Simulated Observed
Upper Duncan
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
O N D J F M A M J J A S
Date
Acr
e-F
eet
Observed Simulated
Caples Lake SWE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Dec-88 Dec-89 Dec-90 Dec-91 Dec-92 Dec-93 Dec-94 Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00
Date
Inch
es
Observed Simulated
Middle Fork American at Foresthill
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
O N D J F M A M J J A S
Date
Acr
e-F
eet
Observed
w/o Operations
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
O N D J F M A M J J A S
Date
Acr
e-F
eet
ObservedWith Operationsw/o Operations
Climate Change (and other) Scenarios in WEAP
Probabilistic assessment of regional climate change
A Bayesian approach that combines predictions from multiple AOGCM output (21 models)
Probabilistic representation of temperature/precipitation change, at regional scales, incorporating natural variability
Reconciles projections from different AOGCMs
BIAS and CONVERGENCE criteria:
Reward models that perform well in reproducing current climate/
discount models that show a large bias
Reward models that form a consensus/downweight extreme
Projections
Avoids the Problems of being “Married” to individual GCM!!
Climate Scenarios- Probabilistic Projections
A1B Seasonal Changes for Northern California from 21 AOGCMs
Precipitation
Winter Spring Summer Fall
Winter- equal likelihood of more or less precip.; no strong long term trend
Spring, Summer Fall- more likelihood of less precip.
Climate Scenarios- Probabilistic Projections
Temperature
Winter Spring Summer Fall
A1B Seasonal Changes for Northern California from 21 AOGCMs
Early 21st Century warming of 0.8C
Natural variability could mask early 21st century anthropogenic warming.
Climate Scenarios - Probabilistic Projections
• These probabilistic projections are useful, for getting a “feel” for the climatic range suggested by AOGCM models.
• BUT.. How do we use this information given impact assessment needs?
• Impact assessment models need “REAL DATA” .. E.g. Climate time series, such as temperature, precipitation, wind, humidity, etc.
This is the downscaling process…
Single Climate Scenario Instance Moderate Warming and Drying
1011121314151617181920
40
-20
04
5-2
00
8
22
-20
11
39
-20
14
4-2
01
8
21
-20
21
38
-20
24
3-2
02
8
20
-20
31
37
-20
34
2-2
03
8
19
-20
41
36
-20
44
1-2
04
8
18
-20
51
35
-20
54
52
-20
57
17
-20
61
Te
mp
era
ture
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n
Climate Scenarios - Probabilistic ProjectionsK-Nearest Neighbor Downscaling
Hist Avg PcpHist Avg. Tmp
Yates et al. 2003, A K-nn algorithm for generating regional climate scenarios, WRR
Climate Scenarios- Probabilistic Projections
-50
51
01
52
0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Avg Temp Alder_C A1B Wm Wet_1
05
10
15
20
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Avg Temp Alder_C A1B Wm Dry_5
-50
51
01
52
0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Avg Temp Alder_C A1B Wm Dry_1
WmDry 1
WmDry 5
WmWet 1
WmWet 5
historic
Monthly Avg. Temperature for Alder Creek - 2010 to 2030
C-5
05
10
15
20
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Avg Temp Alder_C A1B Wm Dry_1
02
04
06
08
0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Total ppt Alder_C A1B Wm Wet_501
02
03
04
05
06
0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Total ppt Alder_C A1B Wm Dry_1
01
02
03
04
05
0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Total ppt Alder_C A1B Wm Dry_5
Climate Scenarios- Probabilistic Projections
WmDry 1
WmDry 5
WmWet 1
WmWet 5
historic
Monthly Total Precipitation Data for Alder Creek – 2010 to 2030
mm
mm
02
04
06
08
0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Total ppt Alder_C A1B Wm Wet_1
North and Middle Forks
French Meadows
Hell Hole
05
01
00
15
02
00
Fall Winter Spring Summer
North Fork Americancm
sRunoff North Fork American
historic
Climate Change and Hydropower for the main projects
An ensemble of climate projections and their impacts on hydropower
Gw
-hrs
Headline: Even Wet scenarios suggest a decline in production with given operating rules.
Project Storage
Total Avg. Weekly Storage (UARP)
120000
170000
220000
270000
320000
370000
We
ek
40
We
ek
43
We
ek
46
We
ek
49
We
ek
52
We
ek
3
We
ek
6
We
ek
9
We
ek
12
We
ek
15
We
ek
18
We
ek
21
We
ek
24
We
ek
27
We
ek
30
We
ek
33
We
ek
36
We
ek
39
Ac
re-f
ee
t
historic
Total Avg. Weekly Storage- Middle Fork Project
0
40000
80000
120000
160000
200000
We
ek
40
We
ek
43
We
ek
46
We
ek
49
We
ek
52
We
ek
3
We
ek
6
We
ek
9
We
ek
12
We
ek
15
We
ek
18
We
ek
21
We
ek
24
We
ek
27
We
ek
30
We
ek
33
We
ek
36
We
ek
39
ac
re-f
ee
t
historic
51
01
52
0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
N Frk Middle Fk Water Temperature A1B Wm Dry_1
North Fork Water Temps- Unmanaged Watershed
51
01
52
0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
N Frk Middle Fk Water Temperature A1B Wm Dry_5
WARM Dry WARM Very Dry
81
01
21
41
6
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Middle Fork Water Temperature A1B Wm Dry_1
Middle Fork Water Temps – Managed Watershed
81
01
21
41
6
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Middle Fork Water Temperature A1B Wm Dry_5
WARM Dry WARM Very Dry