Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Stocks and Their Valuation
Chapter 10
Features of Common Stock Determining Common Stock
Values Preferred Stock
10-1
Facts about Common Stock
Represents ownership
Ownership implies control
Stockholders elect directors
Directors elect management
Management’s goal: Maximize the stock price
10-2
Intrinsic Value and Stock Price
Outside investors, corporate insiders, and analysts use a variety of approaches to estimate a stock’s intrinsic value (P0).
In equilibrium we assume that a stock’s price equals its intrinsic value. Outsiders estimate intrinsic value to help
determine which stocks are attractive to buy and/or sell.
Stocks with a price below (above) its intrinsic value are undervalued (overvalued).
10-3
Determinants of Intrinsic Value and Stock Prices
10-4
“True” Risk
“Perceived” Investor Returns
“Perceived” Risk
Managerial Actions, the Economic Environment, Taxes, and the Political
Climate
Stock’s Intrinsic Value
Stock’s Market Price
Market Equilibrium:Intrinsic Value = Stock
Price
Different Approaches for Estimating the Intrinsic Value of a Common Stock
Discounted dividend model
Corporate valuation model
Using the multiples of comparable firms
10-5
Discounted Dividend Model
Value of a stock is the present value of the future dividends expected to be generated by the stock.
ˆ
31 20 1 2 3
s s s s
DD D DP = + + + ... +
(1+r ) (1+r ) (1+r ) (1+r )
10-6
Constant Growth Stock
ˆ
0 10
s s
D (1+g) DP = =
r g r g
10-7
A stock whose dividends are expected to grow forever at a constant rate, g.
D1 = D0(1 + g)1
D2 = D0(1 + g)2
Dt = D0(1 + g)t
If g is constant, the discounted dividend formula converges to:
Future Dividends and Their Present Values
10-8
tt
t )r 1 (D
PVD
t0 PVDP
$
0.25
Years (t)0
t0t )g1(DD
What happens if g > rs?
If g > rs, the constant growth formula leads to a negative stock price, which does not make sense.
The constant growth model can only be used if: rs > g.
g is expected to be constant forever.
10-9
Use the SML to Calculate the Required Rate of Return (rs)
If rRF = 7%, rM = 12%, and b = 1.2, what is the required rate of return on the firm’s stock?
rs = rRF + (rM – rRF)b
= 7% + (12% – 7%)1.2
= 13%
10-10
Find the Expected Dividend Stream for the Next 3 Years and Their PVs
10-11
1.8761
1.7599
D0 = 2.00
1.6509
rs = 13%
g = 6%0 1
2.247
2
2.382
3
2.12
D0 = $2 and g is a constant 6%.
Using the constant growth model:
What is the stock’s intrinsic value?
$30.29
0.07$2.12
0.060.13$2.12
g r
D P̂
s
10
10-12
D1 will have been paid out already. So, P1 is the present value (as of Year 1) of D2, D3, D4, etc.
Could also find expected P1 as:
What is the expected market price of the stock, one year from now?
$32.10
0.060.13$2.247
gr
D P̂
s
21
$32.10 (1.06)P P̂ 01
10-13
Find Expected Dividend Yield, Capital Gains Yield, and Total Return During First Year
Dividend yield
= D1/P0 = $2.12/$30.29 = 7.0%
Capital gains yield
= (P1 – P0)/P0
= ($32.10 – $30.29)/$30.29 = 6.0%
Total return (rs)
= Dividend yield + Capital gains yield
= 7.0% + 6.0% = 13.0%10-14
The dividend stream would be a perpetuity.
What would the expected price today be, if g = 0?
$15.38 0.13$2.00
r
PMT P̂0
2.00 2.002.00
0 1 2 3rs = 13%
10-15
Supernormal Growth: What if g = 30% for 3 years before achieving long-run growth of 6%?
Can no longer use just the constant growth model to find stock value.
However, the growth does become constant after 3 years.
10-16
Valuing Common Stock with Nonconstant Growth
rs = 13%
g = 30% g = 30% g = 30% g = 6%
2.301
2.647
3.045
46.114
54.107 =
0 1 2 3 4
D0 = 2.00 2.600 3.380 4.394 4.658
P̂0
$66.54 06.0 0.13
4.658 P̂3
10-17
Find Expected Dividend and Capital Gains Yields during the First and Fourth Years
Dividend yield (first year)
= $2.60/$54.11 = 4.81%
Capital gains yield (first year)
= 13.00% – 4.81% = 8.19%
During nonconstant growth, dividend yield and capital gains yield are not constant, and capital gains yield ≠ g.
After t = 3, the stock has constant growth and dividend yield = 7%, while capital gains yield = 6%.
10-18
Nonconstant Growth: What if g = 0% for 3 years before long-run growth of 6%?
10-19
rs = 13%
g = 0% g = 0% g = 0% g = 6%
1.77
1.57
1.39
20.99
25.72 =
0 1 2 3 4
D0 = 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
2.12
P̂0
$30.29 06.0 0.13
2.12 P̂3
Find Expected Dividend and Capital Gains Yields During the First and Fourth Years
Dividend yield (first year)
= $2.00/$25.72 = 7.78%
Capital gains yield (first year)
= 13.00% – 7.78% = 5.22%
After t = 3, the stock has constant growth and dividend yield = 7%, while capital gains yield = 6%.
10-20
Yes. Even though the dividends are declining, the stock is still producing cash flows and therefore has positive value.
If the stock was expected to have negative growth (g = -6%), would anyone buy the stock, and what is its value?
$9.89 0.19$1.88
(-0.06) 0.13(0.94) $2.00
g r)g (1D
g r
D P̂
s
0
s
10
10-21
Find Expected Annual Dividend and Capital Gains Yields
Capital gains yield
= g = –6.00%
Dividend yield
= 13.00% – (–6.00%) = 19.00%
Since the stock is experiencing constant growth, dividend yield and capital gains yield are constant. Dividend yield is sufficiently large (19%) to offset a negative capital gains.
10-22
Corporate Valuation Model
Also called the free cash flow method. Suggests the value of the entire firm equals the present value of the firm’s free cash flows.
Remember, free cash flow is the firm’s after-tax operating income less the net capital investment.
FCF = EBIT(1 – T) – Net capital investment
10-23
Applying the Corporate Valuation Model
Find the market value (MV) of the firm, by finding the PV of the firm’s future FCFs.
Subtract MV of firm’s debt and preferred stock to get MV of common stock.
Divide MV of common stock by the number of shares outstanding to get intrinsic stock price (value).
10-24
Issues Regarding the Corporate Valuation Model
Often preferred to the discounted dividend model, especially when considering number of firms that don’t pay dividends or when dividends are hard to forecast.
Similar to discounted dividend model, assumes at some point free cash flow will grow at a constant rate.
Terminal value (TVN) represents value of firm at the point that growth becomes constant.
10-25
Use the Corporate Valuation Model to Find the Firm’s Intrinsic Value
Given: Long-Run gFCF = 6% and WACC = 10%
10-26
r = 10%
g = 6%
-4.545
8.264
15.026
398.197
416.942
0 1 2 3 4
-5 21.20
3TV 06.0 0.10
21.20 530
10 20
What is the firm’s intrinsic value per share?
10-27
The firm has $40 million total in debt and preferred stock and has 10 million shares of stock.
MV of equity = MV of firm MV of debt
=$416.94 $40
=$376.94 million
Value per share = MV of equity / # of shares
=$376.94 /10
=$37.69
The firm’s total value is calculated as follows:
Using your financial calculator, enter the following inputs: CF0 = 0; CF1 = 3000000; CF2 = 6000000; CF3 = 10000000; CF4 = 15000000 + 321000000 = 336000000; I/YR = 12; and then solve for NPV = $228,113,612.
10-28
What is the firm’s intrinsic value per share?
To find Barrett’s stock price, you need to first find the value of its equity. The value of Barrett’s equity is equal to the value of the total firm less the market value of its debt and preferred stock.
Total firm value $228,113,612
Market value, debt + preferred 60,000,000
Market value of equity $168,113,612
10-29
What is the firm’s intrinsic value per share?
Firm Multiples Method
Analysts often use the following multiples to value stocks. P/E
P/CF
P/Sales
EXAMPLE: Based on comparable firms, estimate the appropriate P/E. Multiply this by expected earnings to back out an estimate of the stock price.
10-30
Preferred Stock
Hybrid security.
Like bonds, preferred stockholders receive a fixed dividend that must be paid before dividends are paid to common stockholders.
However, companies can omit preferred dividend payments without fear of pushing the firm into bankruptcy.
10-31
If preferred stock with an annual dividend of $5 sells for $50, what is the preferred stock’s expected return?
10-32
pp
p
DV =
r
$5$50=
r
p̂
$5r =
$50=0.10 =10%
