STP Neg File for Mini Tournament

8/14/2019 STP Neg File for Mini Tournament

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STP Lab 12008FLEx-fuel strategy sheet .......................................................................................................................................... .............4Food Prices DAFlex-Fuel Mandate Link ...........................................................................................................................5Food Prices Impact Billions ........................................................................................................................... ..... ..... ..... .....6Food Prices Impact Terrorism ...........................................................................................................................................7Oil Dependence Advantage Answers ............................................................................................................................. ..... ..9Air Pollution Advantage Answers ................................................................................................................................. ..... .10Oil Spills Advantage Answers .............................................................................................................................................11Poverty Advantage Answers ...................................................................................................................................... .........12Solvency Answers ...............................................................................................................................................................13Offshore Drilling CP1NC Shell .................................................................................................................................... ...14Offshore Drilling CPLifting Offshore Ban Immediately Lowers Oil Prices ............................................................. ..... ..15Offshore Drilling CPCP Lowers Oil Prices/A2 Drilling Bad Turns .......................................................................... ..... .16PHEV CP1NC Shell ............................................................................................................................................... ..... ....17PHEV CP2NC Extensions ...............................................................................................................................................18OPEC Flood DA1NC Shell ....................................................................................................................................... ..... .20OPEC Flood DAUniquenessSpare Capacity Now .......................................................................................................21OPEC Flood DAUniquenessRefining Capacity Now ...............................................................................................22OPEC Flood DAUniquenessA2 US Giving Alt Energy Incentives Now ........................................................ ..... ..... ..23OPEC Flood DALinksRenewables/Alternative Energy ...............................................................................................24OPEC Flood DALink MagnifierPerception of Higher Supply Price Collapse .......................................................25OPEC Flood DAImpactsLow Oil Prices Undermine Alternative Energy ............................................................... .....26IPI Pipeline Good1NC Impact Module .......................................................................................................... ..... ..... ..... ..27IPI Pipeline Good1NC Impact Module .......................................................................................................... ..... ..... ..... ..28IPI Pipeline GoodUnique InternalsHigh Oil Prices IPI Pipeline Cooperation ........................................... ..... ..... ...29IPI Pipeline GoodImpactsKey to South Asian Stability ...................................................................... ..... ..... ..... ..... ....30IPI PIPLINE GOODIMPACTSKEY ...........................................................................................................................31................................................................................................................................................................................. ..........32Topicality ............................................................................................................................................................................32Liquid coal strat ...................................................................................................................................................................33AT: Heg Solves Terrorism ..................................................................................................................................................34AT: Heg Solves Prolif.........................................................................................................................................................35AT: Heg Solves Econ. Growth ............................................................................................................................................36AT: Heg Solves Genocide ...................................................................................................................................................37AT: Heg Solves Indo/Pak ............................................................................................................................................. ..... ..38Heg Collapse Inevitable ............................................................................................................................................ ..........39Heg Counterbalancing ............................................................................................................................................... ..... ....40Heg Counterbalancing cont .................................................................................................................................... ..... ...41Heg Imperial Wars .............................................................................................................................................................42AT: Iraq Mod ................................................................................................................................................................ ......43AT: Taiwan Mod .................................................................................................................................................................44No Intervention ................................................................................................................................................................... 45AT: Heg. Laundry List .......................................................................................................................................................46Military Costs ......................................................................................................................................................................47

AT: Oil Dependence Link + Fuel Consumption UQ ......................................................................................... ..... ..... ..... ...48AT: New Weapons Link ......................................................................................................................................................49A2: Air Power Key [1/2] ........................................................................................................................................... ..... .....50In 1919, the Japanese discovered a more potent version of the drug methamphetamine. The new drug was a crystallinepowder soluble in water. In this form, it can be smoked, injected, snorted or taken orally. Users get an intense but briefhigh when they inject or smoke the drug, but if its snorted or taken orally by cap ........................................................... ..50Well, I think the idea of energy independence is an idea that really is a -- it's not a reality. It's not something that'sachievable for the United States. And there are a lot of reasons for that. It's partly because the global oil market is amarket where -- you can't escape from it -- it's a totally globalized market. There's no way to really isolate yourself,insulate yourself Hegemony 1NC Frontline 2/2 .............................................................................................................. ....51Airlines 1NC Frontline 1/2 ..................................................................................................................................................52


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STP Lab 22008Airlines 1NC Frontline 2/2 ..................................................................................................................................................54cp texts ................................................................................................................................................................................55Railroads D/A .............................................................................................................................................................. ......56Oil Shale CP ........................................................................................................................................................................57Impact Calculus ...................................................................................................................................................................58T: Alt. Energy Fossil Fuels ................................................................................................................................................59Ecomanagment Kritik ....................................................................................................................................................... ..60***K*** ..............................................................................................................................................................................61Tradable Gas Rights 2NC ....................................................................................................................................................61LW Cap and Trade 2NC ......................................................................................................................................................62Flex Fuel Aff 2NC ................................................................................................................................................. .............63Depletion Deduction (Coal) 2NC ................................................................................................................................ ..... ...64Algae Biodiesel 2NC ...........................................................................................................................................................65AT: Perm .............................................................................................................................................................................66AT: Framework ...................................................................................................................................................................67AT: K doesnt solve....................................................................................................................................................... .....68Theory Answers ..................................................................................................................................................................692NR Extensions of Robbinson and Tormey ............................................................................................................... ..... ....702NR Extensions of Gibson and Graham ..............................................................................................................................71Uniqueness Cont............................................................................................................................................................... ..73Federalism: Algae Biodiesel Link ...................................................................................................................................... .74A/T ETHNIC CONFLICT IMPACT TURN ..................................................................................................................... ..80***algea neg strat*** ..................................................................................................................................................... .....82Strat 1 Delegation and politics .................................................................................................................................. ..........83On Elections-U ....................................................................................................................................................................84elections link .............................................................................................................................................................. ........85elections impacts .............................................................................................................................................................. ...86On Solvency ........................................................................................................................................................................88

On their Warming advantage .......................................................................................................................................89Strat 2: Das and case Attacks ....................................................................................................................................... ..... .90impacts ................................................................................................................................................................................91

ONto their warming advantage ........................................................................................................................................ ...92global warming cont............................................................................................................................................................93airline adv............................................................................................................................................................................94airline ext........................................................................................................................................................................... .95airline ext........................................................................................................................................................................... .96Splash and dash adv....................................................................................................................................................... .....97A much more serious risk is that the obsession with competitiveness will lead to trade conflict, perhaps even to a worldtrade war. Most of those who have preached the doctrine of competitiveness have not been old-fashioned protectionists.They want their countries to win the global trade game, not drop out. But what if, despite its best efforts, a country doesnot seem to be winning, or lacks confidence that it can? Then the competitive diagnosis inevitably suggests that to closethe borders is better than to risk having foreigners take away high-wage jobs and high-value sectors. At the very least, thefocus on the supposedly competitive nature of international economic relations greases the rails for those who want

confrontational if not frankly protectionist policies .............................................................................................................97On their kernels of truth advantage ................................................................................................................ ..... ..... ..... ..... .98On Solvency ........................................................................................................................................................................99Strat 3: States CP+Other stuff ................................................................................................................................. ..... .....100da federalism .....................................................................................................................................................................101elections .................................................................................................................................................................... ........102link ....................................................................................................................................................................................103impacts .............................................................................................................................................................................104***PERMITS STRAT*** ....................................................................................................................................... .........1061NC Frontlines- Peak Oil ............................................................................................................................................. .....106peak oil .............................................................................................................................................................................. 107


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STP Lab 32008oil peak ..............................................................................................................................................................................108peak oil .............................................................................................................................................................................. 1091NC Frontlines- Terrorism ......................................................................................................................................... ..... ..110terrorism ext.................................................................................................................................................................... ..1111NC Frontlines- Central Asia/Caspian Scenario ........................................................................................... ..... ..... ..... .....112asia/caspian scenario cont..................................................................................................................................................113asia/caspian scenario cont..................................................................................................................................................1141NC- Solvency Frontline ...................................................................................................................................................115solvency cont.....................................................................................................................................................................116Solvency Extensions- Terrorism ......................................................................................................................... ..... ..... ....117Solvency- Central Asia/Caspian Scenario ......................................................................................................... ..... ..... ..... .118solvency .................................................................................................................................................................... ........119Solvency Alt. Causes- Central Asia/Caspian Scenario ........................................................................................ ..... ..... ....120Case Turns- Backstopping .................................................................................................................................................121Link Extensions- Backstopping .........................................................................................................................................122link extentions cont................................................................................................................................................... ........123link extentions ...................................................................................................................................................................124Impact Extensions-Backstopping ........................................................................................................................... ..... ..... .125Case Turn- Hedge .......................................................................................................................................................... ...126Link Extensions- Hedge ................................................................................................................................................. ...127Impact Takeouts- Peak Oil ................................................................................................................................................128oil takeout cont..................................................................................................................................................................129oil peak cont......................................................................................................................................................................130oil takeout cont..................................................................................................................................................................131Link Turns- Prevents Shocks .............................................................................................................................................132Link Turns- U.S. Presence in Middle East ......................................................................................................... ..... ..... .....133link turns-middle east ................................................................................................................................................ ..... ...134Link Turns- Terrorism .......................................................................................................................................................135Peak Oil Extensions ....................................................................................................................................................... ...136peak oil extensions ............................................................................................................................................................ 137peak oil extensions ............................................................................................................................................................ 138

peak oil extensions ............................................................................................................................................................ 139peak oil extensions ............................................................................................................................................................ 141Negative Strategy against the Tradeable Gas Rights Aff: ................................................................................................. .142Gas Tax CP (1NC) ........................................................................................................................................................ ....143Gas Tax CP Solvency XT ...............................................................................................................................................144gas tax cp ...........................................................................................................................................................................145Gas tax is the most efficient way to decrease consumption ................................................................................. ..... ..... ...146States CP 1NC ...................................................................................................................................................................147Economic Management K 1NC ......................................................................................................................................148k cont.................................................................................................................................................................................149k cont.................................................................................................................................................................................150k cont.................................................................................................................................................................................151

Politics links Energy independence popular ................................................................................................................ ...152Politics public support ....................................................................................................................................... ..... ..... ...153 politics public support .......................................................................................................................................... ..... ..... ...154Politics links-fights in congress .................................................................................................................................. ..... ..155politics links .................................................................................................................................................................... .. 156politics links .................................................................................................................................................................... .. 157Politics links unpopular with public ............................................................................................................... ..... ..... ..... .158Politics Lobbies hate (oil & auto) ..................................................................................................................................159politics .............................................................................................................................................................................. 160


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STP Lab 42008

FLEX-FUEL STRATEGY SHEET

1. This is not recommended to everyone. You will have to work harder to win.a. This is strat doesnt include a CP. Two of the DAs link. You will have to win them all. It is a pretty

ballsy move.

b. DAs will be politics, IPI Pipeline, Food prices, and OPEC.c. T will be anything you want. We will include the list of possible T shells below.d. On case will be the same in every strat. Run at least one card on each advantage and the no solvency

cards are pretty good as well. Also for more solvency you can go to the alt. energy file and get anybiofuels bad cards. Flex Fuels use biofuels. Dont run the Inherency arguments Winning on casearguments will be critical to win so your DAs can outweigh.

2. This is for if they dont run the oil spill advantage.a. CP should be Offshore drilling is good. It solves the other 2 advantages and is competitive.b. DA would be food prices. Also you could go with politics. Politics doesnt like because the links are

specific to alternative energy and oil isnt alternative. You will probably have to make that argument.

c. T will be anything you want. We will include the list of possible T shells below.d. On case will be the same in every strat. Run at least one card on each advantage and the no solvency

cards are pretty good as well. Also for more solvency you can go to the alt. energy file and get anybiofuels bad cards. Flex Fuels use biofuels. Dont run the Inherency arguments

3. This is for all 3 advantages. It doesnt matter if they just run 2. it works for them all.a. CP is PHEV. This is just hydro cars not flex fuel.b. DA is OPEC FLOOD as the as the NB. You can also read the food DA and politics. You however link

to politics. So it may not be good to read. Unless you plan on kicking the CP.c. T will be anything you want. We will include the list of possible T shells below.d. On case will be the same in every strat. Run at least one card on each advantage and the no solvency

cards are pretty good as well. Also for more solvency arguments you can go to the alt. energy file and get

any biofuels bad cards. Flex Fuels use biofuels. Dont run the Inherency arguments


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STP Lab 52008

FOOD PRICES DAFLEX-FUEL MANDATE LINK

A flex-fuel mandate drives up demand for corn, increasing food prices andpromoting unsustainable agricultural practices

Hamilton 4/7/08 (Tyler, "It's time to 'flex' our energy muscles," Toronto Star,http://www.thestar.com/comment/columnists/article/410812)

The idea of pushing for mandatory flex-fuel vehicles, which U.S. manufacturers such as General Motors and Ford alreadysell in small volume, does raise a few red flags for some. It would drive up demand for corn, the dominant feedstock atthe moment for producing ethanol, and as a result would continue to push up prices for corn-based foods.Such a spike in demand, and the inability of North American farmers to keep up, would also spur ethanol imports fromcountries that may have unsustainable agricultural practices, negating the environmental benefits of using therenewable biofuel.


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STP Lab 62008

FOOD PRICES IMPACT BILLIONSEach 1% rise in food prices causes thousands of deathsLester R. Brown, founder and president of Earth Policy Institute, January 25, 2008, p.http://media.cleantech.com/2360/why-ethanol-production-will-drive-world-food-prices-even-higher-in-2008

The World Bank reports that for each 1 percent rise in food prices, caloric intakeamong the poor drops 0.5 percent. Millions of those living on the lower rungs of theglobal economic ladder, people who are barely hanging on, will lose their grip andbegin to fall off.

Food blips will kill more than a billionTampa Tribune, January 20, 1996, p. LexisOn a global scale, food supplies - measured by stockpiles of grain - are not abundant. In 1995, world production failed to meetdemand for the third consecutive year, said Per Pinstrup-Andersen, director of the International Food Policy Research Institute inWashington, D.C. As a result, grain stockpiles fell from an average of 17 percent of annual consumption in 1994-1995 to 13 percentat the end of the 1995-1996 season, he said. That's troubling, Pinstrup-Andersen noted, since 13 percent is well below the 17 percentthe United Nations considers essential to provide a margin of safety in world food security. During the food crisis of the early 1970s,

world grain stocks were at 15 percent. "Even if they are merely blips, higher international pricescan hurt poor countries that import a significant portion of their food," he said."Rising prices can also quickly put food out of reach of the 1.1 billion people in thedeveloping world who live on a dollar a day or less."


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STP Lab 72008

FOOD PRICES IMPACT TERRORISM

High food prices cause failed statesLester R. Brown, founder and president of Earth Policy Institute, January 25, 2008, p.http://media.cleantech.com/2360/why-ethanol-production-will-drive-world-food-prices-even-

higher-in-2008As economic stresses translate into political stresses, the number of failing states,such as Afghanistan, Somalia, Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, andHaiti, which was already increasing before the rise in food prices began, couldincrease even faster.

Failed states allow terrorists to breedCarla Koppell, Wildrow Wilson Center for International Scholars, PREVENTING NON-TRADITIONALCONFLICTS, 2003, wwics.si.edu/index.cfm?topic_id=1411&fuseaction=topics.item&news_id=40287

The number of states that are unable to sustain themselves and manage as part of theinternational community is growing as well. Countries like Haiti, Somalia, Sudan, Liberia

and Cambodia are characterized by gov- ernmental inability to manage the state,control criminal elements, tackle social, economic and environmental challenges, orresolve conflicts over borders and territory. They can contribute to regional andglobal instability in several ways. By creating havens in which there is no rule of law,they permit the growth of transnational crime.

Unchecked terrorism will cause extinctionAlexander, professor and director of the Inter-University for Terrorism Studies, August 28, 2003(Yonah, Washington Times, p. Lexis)Last week's brutal suicide bombings in Baghdad and Jerusalem have once againillustrated dramatically that the international community failed, thus far at least, tounderstand the magnitude and implications of the terrorist threats to the very

survival of civilization itself.Even the United States and Israel have for decades tended to regard terrorism as a mere tactical nuisance or irritant rather than a critical strategic challenge to their nationalsecurity concerns.It is not surprising, therefore, that on September 11, 2001, Americans were stunned by the unprecedented tragedy of 19 al Qaeda terrorists striking a devastating blow at thecenter of the nation's commercial and military powers.Likewise, Israel and its citizens, despite the collapse of the Oslo Agreements of 1993 and numerous acts of terrorism triggered by the second intifada that began almost threeyears ago, are still "shocked" by each suicide attack at a time of intensive diplomatic efforts to revive the moribund peace process through the now revoked cease-firearrangements [hudna].Why are the United States and Israel, as well as scores of other countries affected by the universal nightmare of modern terrorism surprised by new terrorist "surprises"?There are many reasons, including misunderstanding of the manifold specific factors that contribute to terrorism's expansion, such as lack of a universal definition of terrorism,the religionization of politics, double standards of morality, weak punishment of terrorists, and the exploitation of the media by terrorist propaganda and psychological warfare.

Unlike their historical counterparts, contemporary terrorists have introduced a newscale of violence in terms of conventional and unconventional threats and impact. Theinternationalization and brutalization of current and future terrorism make it clear wehave entered an Age of Super Terrorism [e.g. biological, chemical, radiological, nuclearand cyber] with its serious implications concerning national, regional and global

security concerns.


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STP Lab 82008

"Given how important it is for this nation to cut carbon emissions,it is vital that we tear down all the roadblocks that haveslowed nuclear power's revival. Setting up a program for thegovernment to help the private sector develop nuclear waste recycling plants,creating a funding mechanism to pay for the work and then allowing only thecommunities that want the economic activity that a waste recycling plant willproduce to apply are all useful steps that will help the economics of nuclearpower. It will allow for the economic recycling of fuel and help reduce waste

volumes and their toxicity protecting the environment," Murkowski said.


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STP Lab 92008

OIL DEPENDENCE ADVANTAGE ANSWERS

Flex-fuel alone is insufficient to solve US oil dependence EVEN IF we diverted allof our food crops into fuel production

Luft 5/2/08(Gal, executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, "Symposium: EnergyIndependence and the Terror War," http://frontpagemagazine.com/Articles/Read.aspx?GUID=7DFE9F38-493C-4887-9E33-4D267570E830)

Luft: I share Robert's sense of urgency about reducing the strategic value of oil by opening the transportation sector to healthy competition, and fuel flexibility shouldindeed be the first item on our agenda. There is no reason why the $100 addition which allows cars to burn alcohol should not be - just like seat belts, air bags or rearview mirrors - a standard feature in every car sold worldwide. This would be a low premium insurance policy against future supply disruptions and a Band-Aid to stop

the bleeding of our economy. Butflex fuel alone would not be sufficient to solve our energy problem. In the U.S. today we useannually roughly 140 billion gallons of gasoline and additional 60 billion gallons of petroleum diesel. We simply don'thave the resource base to replace all of this with alcohol and bio-diesel, even ifwe tapped into our vast coal reservesand diverted all of our food crops into fuel production. So we need solutions beyond liquid fuels.


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STP Lab 102008

AIR POLLUTION ADVANTAGE ANSWERS

Flex-fuel vehicles alone arent enough to combat large-scale environmentalconcerns due to their fuel inefficiency

Hamilton 4/7/08(Tyler, "It's time to 'flex' our energy muscles," Toronto Star,http://www.thestar.com/comment/columnists/article/410812)

Gary Kendall, a senior energy analyst with environmental group WWF, argues that flex-fuel vehicles alone, while they mayease dependence on oil, aren't nearly enough to combat larger environmental concerns such as climate change."One of the problems with the way flex-fuel vehicles are treated today is the way auto makers claim them to be green, bycounting the biofuels as zero carbon," said Kendall in an email message from Belgium. "But the fact remains that an inefficientvehicle burning renewable fuels is still an inefficient vehicle."

Methanol and ethanol both release significant amounts of air pollution whenburned and produced

Zubrin 06(Robert, president of the aerospace engineering and research firm Pioneer Astronautics, An EnergyRevolution," The American Enterprise, March, http://www.taemag.com/issues/articleid.18976/article_detail.asp)

Ethanol is actually edible, whereas methanol is toxic when drunk. This difference, though, should not be overdrawn, sincein an FFV economy, both would be mixed with gasoline. The breakdown products of both ethanol and methanol are muchless noxious than those from petroleum, and both emit far fewer particulates when burned. Methanol, ethanol, andgasoline are about equal in the levels of nitrous oxide and carbon monoxide produced when they are burned. Sinceit is made exclusively from agricultural products, ethanol acts as counter to global warming. Methanol can as well, butonly if its source is agricultural. Methanol produced from coal or natural gas has about the same impact on globalwarming as gasoline.


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STP Lab 112008

OIL SPILLS ADVANTAGE ANSWERS

Oil spills are a relatively small percentage of ocean pollutionalmost all oceanpollution comes from land-based sources

Craig 05(Robert, Associate Professor of Law and Dean's Fellow, Indiana University School of Law, Spring, 20 J.Land Use & Envtl. Law 333, lexis)

Despite the obviousness ofoil spills, however, they are a relatively small ocean pollution problem. While the world'soceans receive about 3.25 million tons of oil each year, the majority of that oil comes from street runoff instead of tankerspills. 82 Accidental spills and shipping are responsible for only about 12 percent of all marine pollution, whileoffshore oil and gas drilling and mining are responsible for another 1 percent. 83 Instead, 77 percent of all marinepollution comes from land-based sources - 44 percent from land-based water pollutant and 33 percent from land-based air pollution. 84 As NancyKnowlton at the Center for Marine Biodiversity at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography has summarized:The most obvious problems stem from our propensity to view dilution as the solution to pollution. Human numbers continue to grow, as do per capita amounts of waste,and much of this waste ultimately finds its way into the ocean. Some waste is toxic, some carries human pathogens, and some alters marine food chains in waysdetrimental to human well-being. 85

Land-based air pollution can arise from both natural events, such as desert sand storms and dust storms, and human-caused events, such as forest fires and industrial air pollution. This pollution can acidify ocean waters, increase the concentration of heavy metaland other toxic pollutants in the oceans, and increase sedimentation of the oceans, blocking sunlight, interfering with photosynthesis, and smothering coastal ecosystemssuch as coral reef. 86 Land-based water pollution can also carry toxics and sediment into the seas, causing similar problems. 87 In addition, toxic pollutants, incombination with rising sea temperature, "are lowering the natural resistance of marine organisms to infections." 88 Thus, for example, organochloride pollution has

been linked to "the mass mortality of Mediterranean monk seals off the coast of Mauritania, which died after becoming infected with a distemper virus of dolphins." 89


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STP Lab 122008

POVERTY ADVANTAGE ANSWERS

Zubrins claims to alleviate poverty is an example of over-the-top idealismthemoney that could be potentially generated wont reach the poor

Walters 11/27/07(Alan, Staff, Energy Daily, "The Plan to Destroy OPEC," http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/The_Plan_To_Destroy_OPEC_999.html)

Which brings us to Zubrin's idealism. He doesn't just want to take away the Saudi's treasure. He wants to use it to end world poverty. He says:"Instead of financing terrorism, our energy dollars could be used to fund world development. Instead of selling blocks of our mediato Saudi princes, we could be selling tractors to Africa. Instead of paying for death, we could be helping to spread life. Instead of buying arms for our enemies andchains for ourselves, we could be building a world of prosperity and freedom."

I think he goes a bit over the top here, but there is substance to his case. His points are threefold.First, that OPEC's jacked up oil prices represent a massive regressive tax on the world's poorest nations. Of this there can be no doubt - it's one thing to pay $100/bblwhen you make $200/day, it's quite another when you make $2/day.Second, he says that by going to alcohol fuels, which can be produced by many kinds of resources, including biomass readily producible by tropical agricultural nationsa substantial fraction of the revenue that is now going to the OPEC petrotyrannies could be much more widely distributed.As Zubrin points out, in 2005, Saudi Arabia, with a population of 24 million received $150 billion in foreign exchange revenues from oil, while Kenya, with 36 million

inhabitants, took in $2.5 billion in foreign exchange earnings from all sources. So distributed more equitably, the Saudi's profits could double the foreign exchangeearnings of 60 countries the size of Kenya. That's quite a thought.

Having been to Africa, I have my doubts as to how much of that money would actually reach the poor, but still, one mustconcede that some probably would, at least indirectly, by providing revenue for national development.


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STP Lab 132008

SOLVENCY ANSWERS

No solvencyeven if 100% of vehicles in the US were flex-fuel capable, therearent enough stations to put biofuels in fuel tanks

Becker 6/17/08(Nathan, MarketWatch reporter, "Senator plans bill to increase flex-fuel fleet,"http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/half-new-us-cars-should/story.aspx?guid=%7B9DC82056-1A08-426B-9002-21AA36CB1638%7D)

But there are drawbacks for consumers who buy ethanol rather than gasoline. Flex-fuel vehicles get a range of 20% to30% fewer miles for each gallon of E85 because ethanol contains less energy than gasoline, the Energy Department says.Also, flex-fuel drivers face a dearth of E85 filling stations in the United States. There are only 1,474 E85 stations in thecountry, according to the government.Although the Midwest has a higher concentration of E85-capable stations, they aren't as prevalent in big car-buying statessuch as California and New York, O'Dell said."You could make 100% of the vehicles in this country flex-fuel capable, but there's no place to put ethanol in the

tanks," he commented. "We'd be better off with a bill that says, 'Here's some funding and some incentive to putethanol pumps in places that they don't exist.'" End of Story

The non-availability of high alcohol fuels as gas stations means you cant solveyour author concedes

Zubrin 06(Robert, president of the aerospace engineering and research firm Pioneer Astronautics, An EnergyRevolution," The American Enterprise, March, http://www.taemag.com/issues/articleid.18976/article_detail.asp)

The only sticking point is the non-availability of high alcohol fuel mixes at the pump. Filling stations dont want todedicate space to a fuel mix used only by 1 percent of all cars. And consumers are not interested in buying vehicles for

which the preferred fuel mix is unavailable.


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STP Lab 142008

OFFSHORE DRILLING CP1NC SHELL

The United States federal government should lift its moratorium on offshore oil

drilling.

The counterplan isnt topicalit doesnt increase alternative energy incentivesand the counterplan competesit avoids the case-specific and incentive-specific disads

And the counterplan solves

Increases in expected future supplies of oili.e. lifting the offshore drilling banresults in lower oil prices TODAY

Feldstein 7/1/08(Martin, Prof of Economics @ Harvard + fmr chairman of Council on Economic Advisers underReagan, "We Can Lower Oil Prices Now," http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121486800837317581.html)

There are of course considerations of risk, and of the impact of price changes on long-term consumer behavior, that complicate the oil owner's decision and therefore

the behavior of prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (the OPEC cartel), with its strong pricing power, still plays a role. But thefundamental insight is that owners of oil will adjust their production and inventories until the price of oil is expected torise at the rate of interest, appropriately adjusted for risk. If the price of oil is expected to rise faster, they'll keep the oil in theground. In contrast, if the price of oil is not expected to rise as fast as the rate of interest, the owners will extract more andinvest the proceeds.The relationship between future and current oil prices implies that an expected change in the future price of oil

will have an immediate impact on the current price of oil.

Thus, when oil producers concluded that the demand for oil in China and some other countries will grow more rapidly in future years than they had previouslyexpected, they inferred that the future price of oil would be higher than they had previously believed. They responded by reducing supply and raising the spot priceenough to bring the expected price rise back to its initial rate.

Hence, with no change in the current demand for oil, the expectation of a greater future demand and a higher future pricecaused the current price to rise. Similarly, credible reports about the future decline of oil production in Russia and in Mexico implied a higher future global

price of oil and that also required an increase in the current oil price to maintain the initial expected rate of increase in the price of oil.Once this relation is understood, it is easy to see how news stories, rumors and industry reports can cause substantial fluctuations in current prices all without anythinghappening to current demand or supply.Of course, a rise in the spot price of oil triggered by a change in expectations about future prices will cause a decline in the current quantity of oil that consumersdemand. If current supply and demand were initially in balance, the OPEC countries and other oil producers would respond by reducing sales to bring supply into linewith the temporary reduction in demand. A rise in the expected future demand for oil thus causes a current decline in the amount of oil being supplied. This is whathappened as the Saudis and others cut supply in 2007.

Now here is the good news. Any policy that causes the expected future oil price to fall can cause the current price tofall, or to rise less than it would otherwise do. In other words,it is possible to bring down today's price of oil with policies that willhave their physical impact on oil demand or supply only in the future.

For example, increases in government subsidies to develop technology that will make future cars more efficient, or tighter standards that gradually improve the gasmileage of the stock of cars, would lower the future demand for oil and therefore the price of oil today.

Similarly,increasing the expected future supply of oil would also reduce today's price. That fall in the current pricewould induce an immediate rise in oil consumption that would be matched byan increase in supply from the OPEC producers andotherswith some current excess capacity or available inventories.


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STP Lab 152008

OFFSHORE DRILLING CPLIFTING OFFSHORE BAN IMMEDIATELYLOWERS OIL PRICES

Lifting the federal ban on offshore drilling immediately lowers oil prices

New York Post 7/6/08("Drill, & Save, Now ... " http://www.nypost.com/php/pfriendly/print.php?url=http://www.nypost.com/seven/07062008/postopinion/editorials/drill___save__now_____118666.htm)

As Reagan-era economic advisor Martin Feldstein noted last week in a Wall Street Journal oped, "We Can Lower Oil Prices Now," you don't need more oilon the market today to nudge down prices today.All that's required (to simplify his point) is for oil producers to expect more oil (or less demand) at some point in thefuture.That in itself, he says, may be enough to trigger a price plunge immediately.

Indeed, any steps to boost supplies, such as easing the offshore-drilling ban, can lower prices right away.Why is that?Think about it: More oil (or less demand) down the road will surely push future prices down - reducing incentives for

producers, like Saudi Arabia, to keep their black gold in the ground.If prices are going to keep soaring, after all, it may make sense to wait and collect more later. But if prices are expected to dip, or rise only slightly,why not sell now? Indeed, in that case, it's smart to unload the stuff fast- and park the proceeds in something with a better return.It's Business 101.

Congress, it turns out, does have the power to push oil prices down right now.So much for Schumer & Co.'s claim that there's nopoint in tapping ANWR because it'd be years before that oil began to flow.Alas, no number of rebuttals - or actual facts - will change some Democrats' minds. They're just not interested in lower oil prices - not if some caribou isinconvenienced.

Dems are welcome to their priorities, even if it goes against those of more and more Americans - even liberals.But they're absolutely wrong to claim that efforts to boost domestic oil production can't bring prices down soon.It can. As Feldstein points out, Americans won't have to wait five or 10 years; they can see immediate relief.

Lifting the ban on offshore drilling has a RAPID, HELPFUL impact on global oil

prices

Stuttaford 7/1/08(Andrew, Columnist @ National Review, "Getting it Right,"http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NDY1OTY5M2IwZDM1NmEwNGQyNzFkNTA5MWI1NDE4ZDU)

While I don't think for a minute that offshore drilling in and of itself is the answer to the current oil price crunch, I do believe that an announcement thatthese resources are available for development could have a helpful impact on the oil price. And do so fairly rapidly.The same is true of removing some of the obstacles to the development of oil sands, shale oil and the like. Here, much more elegantly than I could, Martin Feldsteinexplains why:

Any policy that causes the expected future oil price to fall can cause the current price to fall, or to rise less than it would otherwise do. In other words, it is possibleto bring down today's price of oil with policies that will have their physical impact on oil demand or supply only in thefuture. For example, increases in government subsidies to develop technology that will make future cars more efficient, or tighter standards that gradually improve

the gas mileage of the stock of cars, would lower the future demand for oil and therefore the price of oil today. Similarly , increasing the expected futuresupply of oil would also reduce today's price. That fall in the current price would induce an immediate rise in oil consumption that would bematched by an increase in supply from the OPEC producers and others with some current excess capacity or available inventories.Any steps that can be taken now to increase the future supply of oil, or reduce the future demand for oil in the U.S. or elsewhere, can therefore lead both to lower pricesand increased consumption today.It's essential to note that Professor Feldstein is not only talking about increasing future supply (although that is, of course, important). Restricting demand is also part ofthe equation (something that may also have environmentally benign consequences). That, in turn, must include conservation (including, I'd argue, tougher mandates onDetroit), and (where needed) regulatory and other support for alternatives to oil - solar, wind, nuclear and so on.

Bottom line:the benefit to the U.S. from showing that it is serious about solving its oil problem may come much morequickly than is often claimed. Being "serious" does not, of course, include the pork barrel, big governmentbuffooneryof cap-and-trade, and nor does it include gas tax 'holidays'.


16/160

STP Lab 162008

OFFSHORE DRILLING CPCP LOWERS OIL PRICES/A2 DRILLINGBAD TURNS

Drilling will occur responsibility and with little environmental impact, other

factors pose a greater threat to the environment than does drilling, andincreases in oil supplies now quickly lowers oil prices globally

Petrowski 7/10/08(Joseph, President of Gulf Oil, "A Bipartisan Fix for the Oil Crisis,"http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121564783168740955.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries)

Supply must be increased, and that will require more drilling.We can responsibly drill. The technology to find, drill and recover oil has evolved tremendously, and careless drillers will feartort lawyers more than government regulators. The claim that the oil companies are sitting on leases and not drilling defies all logic. With oil at $135 per barrel and

drilling rigs renting at $300,000 per day, there are no idle rigs anywhere. Furthermore, economic decline and war induced by basic resourcestruggles are greater threats to the environment and American workers than drilling.

Your claim that any oil we drill for now will not come on line for five years or longer and will thus have no effect on prices today is incorrect . Unlike past oil

crises, where the spot price of oil (that is, today's price) rose more than forward prices, the oil price for delivery in 2012 istrading at $138 per barrel. The market is sending a clear price signal that our problem is in the future because we do nothave the will to curb demand orincrease supply.How many houses would someone invest in if there were a future guarantee that the price would not decline? It is anticipation of ever-increasing pricesthat fuels the mania.The oil market, however, has more than anticipation; it has a well-defined forward price signal. This is a keycomponent of the added $25-$40 per barrel in current oil prices. Congressional hearings and "make it go away" legislation will not stopthat.Demonstrate the national will to address the supply and demand issues now and it will.As forward prices decline, watch how quickly the spot price comes down.


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STP Lab 172008

PHEV CP1NC SHELL

The United States federal government should substantially increase incentivesfor the development and purchase of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles

The counterplan avoids OPEC flood

Flex-fuel mandates compel OPEC to drop oil prices globally to make alternativefuels uneconomicalOPEC cant lower the price of oil low enough to crowdout electric hybrids without destroying their own economy


The oil cartel will surely respond to the emerging alcohol economy by dropping crude prices to a level that wouldmake ethanol and methanol economically unattractive. This is exactly what they did in the 1980s in response to amassive effort by Western countries to wean themselves from oil. Oil dropped to $8 a barrel and alternative fuelsproducers lost their shirts. If cars had full fuel flexibility, allowing them, in addition to burning alcohols, to also tap into the grid, OPEC would haveto drop prices to $5 a barrel to compete with 3 cents per mile of electric drive. This is way below where they can affordto go considering their youth bulges and domestic economic conditions. This is why the commercialization of plugin hybrid electric vehicles, which allow us to drive the first chunk of our daily driving on electricity after which the car begins to burn liquid fuel , is socritical. Congress should therefore provide tax incentives to early adopters of plug in hybrids--just as it did in the case of regularhybrids--while facilitating the emergence of a viable battery industry in the U.S. A flex fuel plug-in hybrid will run approximately 500 miles on a gallon of gasoline.This could really pull the plug on OPEC.

And the counterplan solves

Incentivizing the commercialization of plug-in hybrids achieves significantpetroleum displacement AND hybrids are insulated from a price-relatedcounterattack by OPEC


In order to achieve significant petroleum displacement we must begin to electrify the transportation sector by

speeding the commercialization of plug-in hybrids and fully electric cars. Unlike in the 1970s, today only 2 percent of our electricity is

made from oil. Almost all of our electricity is made from domestic energy resources like coal, nuclear power, natural gas and hydro. In other words , on theelectricity front, unlike the Europeans who rely on imported natural gas for their light and heating , Americans are already energy independent.Using electrons for transportation, instead of gasoline, essentially means shifting from an imported resource which poses anational security threat to an array of abundant domestic energy sources. In addition, electricity is cheaper and cleanerthan gasoline. It costs about 3 cents per mile to run a car on electricity--roughly one fifth of the cost of driving the samemile on gasoline. This cost differential protects us from a counterattack by OPEC .


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STP Lab 192008Time is running out on developing a truly energy-efficient car. Accelerated burning of fossil fuels is bringing us closer to the tipping point of irreversible climatecatastrophe. We are likely to peak soon in the production of conventional oil -- so gasoline prices are inevitably headed higher in the coming decades. Meanwhile, thecars we build today stay on the road more than 15 years, so we have no time to waste.

You can buy a flexible fuel vehicle today that runs on 85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline, and you might even beable to find an E85 station in your city. But corn ethanol is far from a desirable alternative fuel. It doesn't significantlyreduce greenhouse gas emissions, or your fuel bill. That would require low-carbon ethanol from biomass such as switchgrass, so-calledcellulosic ethanol, but the country does not have a single commercial cellulosic ethanol facility. It will probably be at

least 15 years -- and possibly twice that long -- before we have large volumes of cellulosic biofuels for sale nationwideat an affordable price.


20/160

STP Lab 202008

OPEC FLOOD DA1NC SHELL

--The mere perception of attempts to reduce US oil dependence causes OPEC to flood the market with

cheap oil

Southeast Farm Press 12/19/01 (lexis)

But just when it appears something will in fact be done toward increasing domestic energy supplies, getting serious aboutalternative sources, and making a long-term commitment toward reducing our dependence on foreign oil - well,miraculously, prices go down. OPEC magnanimously increases supply, refineries begin humming, and once againthoughts of a national energy policy fade like the Cheshire cat.

Only the cat's grin is left. And the cat is OPEC and the energy industry. They've seen it all before. They know they haveonly to wait; that we in the United States have a short memory, and that as long as they toss us a sop of energy"bargains" from time to time, we'll moan and groan and pay their price the rest of the time.

--OPEC-led oil price collapse would cripple the economies of high-cost oil producers like Indonesia,

Russia, Nigeria and others

Mohamedi 3/22/03 (Fareed, chief economist, PFC Energy, Middle East Policy, lexis)

A more aggressive strategy--and actually a better strategy for the Saudis in many ways over the longer term and for OPEC--wouldbe to crash oil prices and not agree to accommodate Iraq. To do what they did in '99 and inadvertently discovered had someadvantages: push the burden onto non-OPEC producers--the high-cost producers--and over time induce a decline in non-OPECproduction, and then come back and take that share of demand for themselves.That would require a fairly low oil price, $ 14-$ 15 a barrel. You may ask, how can the oil producers' economies take that? They can barely take it at $ 30 a barrel . Ifyou look at the macroeconomic situation in some of the Gulf countries--Saudi Arabia and Iran, even Algeria--they haveaccumulated a lot of assets and paid down a lot of their debt. Financially, they're doing a lot better than they were just afew years ago. To a certain extent, they have the war chest to do this if they have the will and the guts. In sharp contrast,

this would be disastrous for Indonesia, Russia, Venezuela and Nigeria. None of these countries can take that type oflow oil price for a period of 18 months to two years.


21/160

STP Lab 212008

OPEC FLOOD DAUNIQUENESSSPARE CAPACITY NOW

OPEC has 2 million barrels of spare capacity AND they're investing to massively expand capacity now

allAfrica.com 6/1/08 ("Nigeria: OPEC to Spend $160 Billion to Increase Capacity,"http://allafrica.com/stories/200806021036.html)

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members will invest US$160 billion in oil developmentprojects in the next three years to increase their production capacity by 15% in response to growing demand, thesecretary-general of the cartel,Abdalla Salem el Badri, has said.The announcement by Badri came a day after British Prime Minister Gordon Brown sought to put high oil prices at the top of the agenda for a summit in July of theGroup of Eight (G8) most powerful nations.Mr Brown had said that a lack of investment in future production capacity was the main factor driving prices to record highs, but Mr Badri disputed this."Even though we see no shortage of oil in the market, since the middle of 2007 we have seen a major disconnect between oil prices and market fundamentals. A numberof factors have contributed to this, but primarily [it is] the massive role that speculators now play in the oil market," Mr Badri said.Badri was quoted to have said that OPEC countries would add five million barrels per day (bpd) of extra crude production capacity by 2012.

"Our members have already undertaken a $160 billion investment programme to expand crude production capacity byclose to five million bpd by 2012," he said in emailed responses to The National.

OPEC pumped about 32 million bpd in April, equivalent to 40 per cent of world oil consumption, and has about two million bpd of sparecapacity.

OPEC has substantial spare production capacity and stands ready to act to lower prices if necessary

Forbes 5/8/08 ("OPEC says oil market well supplied; 3 mln bpd spare capacity available if needed,"http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2008/05/08/afx4986536.html)

OPEC Secretary General Adbullah al-Badri said in a statement that the 13 member cartel had over 3 million barrels ofspare capacity per day if needed.'OPEC spare capacity continues to increase, with the figure currently standing above 3 million bpd. At the same time, crude oil movements indicate that some member

countries are unable to find buyers for their additional supply,' he said in the statement.'OPEC will continue to be proactive and monitor these developments closely. The organization stands ready to act ifthe market shows a need for any further measures,' he added.

OPEC has plenty of spare capacity

Phillips 6/5/08 (John, Analyst @ FXStreet.com, "Rate Decisions Approaching; Payrolls in Sight,"http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/european-market-update/2008-06-05.html)

In energy news overnight Mexico's President noted that the declining production at Pemex is concerning. The company's production fell by 200K barrels in the first

quarter. Later the CEO of Pemex reported that the company's exports of oil will average 1.4M-1.45M bpd in 2008 . OPEC's Khelil said overnight thatOPEC has 2M-3M barrels of spare capacity. Khelil said that oil prices are likely to stay around $120/barrel, and will not fall below $100/barrel,adding that the IEA's 2008 world oil demand forecast is optimistic.

OPEC spare capacity continues to increase

Business Day 6/3/08 ("Dollar appreciation reverses rise of crude oil prices,"http://www.businessdayonline.com/economic-watch/10760.html)

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development (OECD) commercial oil stocks remain above the five-year average . OPECmember countries continue to produce at more than 32mb/d. In addition, a number of new OPEC crude oil projectshave started to come on-stream and OPEC spare capacity continues to increase.


22/160

STP Lab 222008

OPEC FLOOD DAUNIQUENESSREFINING CAPACITY NOW

Saudi Arabia has plenty of refinery capacity and is making plans for capacity expansions now

Steelguru 6/7/08 ("Saudi Arabia approves 2 refining ventures," http://steelguru.com/news/index/2008/06/03/NDg2Mjc%3D/Saudi_Arabia_approves_2_refining_ventures.html)

Emirates Business 24-7 reported that Saudi Arabian government is assessing plans to almost double its refining capacityregardless of the sharp increase in investment requirements.

As per report, the Kingdom has already approved of 2 mega refining ventures with foreign partners in June 2008 despite aminimum increase of 60% in costs. The amount of capital investment required for the 2 plants was initially estimated at around USD 6 billion each and is now expectedto have increased by at least 60% on rising cost structures.

Saudi Arabia's domestic refining capacity is estimated at around 2.1 million barrels per day, however it also

controls more than 1 million barrels per day in joint refining ventures abroad.

Saudi Arabia, China, and India are rapidly investing in substantial, new refining capacitywill be online

in the near-term

Kingsdalec 6/3/08 (James, Energy investor + analyst @ Energy Investment Strategies, "Global Net Oil Exports HaveDeclined for Two Years,"http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle+articleid_2245873~zoneid_Home~title_Global-Net-Oil-Exports.html)

1. Over half the decline is from Saudi Arabia. The Saudis are swing producers in the world and they claim that they could produce more oil if the markets required itSome suspect the Saudis are unable to produce more but the true facts are unknown. What seems clear is that they do have the capacity to produce a good deal more (1

- 2 mb/d) of heavy sour crude oil on a sustained basis but there is not currently market demand for it due to lack of refining capacity for that type of oil. TheSaudis are well along the road to constructing substantial new refining capacity, as are both the Chinese and the

Indians, all of which will be able to use heavy sour inputs. In fairly short order - 2009 or 2010 - there will be

substantially more global capacity to refinethe heavy sour crude that is in increasing surplus supply in the world, particularly from the Saudis.


23/160

STP Lab 232008

OPEC FLOOD DAUNIQUENESSA2 US GIVING ALT ENERGYINCENTIVES NOW

Status quo alternative energy incentives arent firm enough to trigger our link

The Independent 5/2/08 (In search of some wind in their sails Lexis)

YesterdayExxonMobil announced that it made $10.9bn (6bn) in profits for the first three months of this year. It was oneof the biggest quarterly profit reports in American corporate history. The US oil giant has achieved the remarkable feat ofmaking earnings from Shell and BP, announced earlier this week, look modest. But as descendants of John D Rockefeller,America's original oil magnate, are vociferously pointing out, obsolescence beckons forExxonMobil and other energygroups if they do not step up their search for alternative fuels and cleaner technologies. The Rockefeller family, still majorshareholders in Exxon, are backing resolutions calling for the company to fund research into how climate change willaffect developing nations. They are also demanding targets from the company for reducing carbon emissions from itsoutput. They hope this will compel Exxon's management to bring less-polluting products than oil and gas to market. But itlooks as though the family are fighting an uphill battle. Exxon has at least ceased to deny a link between fossil fuel

emissions and climate change. But it has still invested no serious effort in cleaner energy technologies, even though this isthe area into which the oil majors should manifestly be ploughing those vast profits. The evidence of this week suggeststhe energy producers need considerably firmer incentives from governments to make the strategic shift away fromenvironmentally destructive fossil fuels towards renewable, clean power generation. Shell may have been concernedby the rising price of offshore wind, but it is seriously misguided if it thinks that concentrating its efforts on extracting theremaining fossil fuels is a better bet than renewables in the medium or long term. If the conservative-minded energyconglomerates do not stump up the necessary investment, then governments will have to intervene to see that they do. Thestakes are too high for a business-as-usual approach to the challenge of meeting the world's energy needs.
http://www.lexisnexis.com.proxy.library.emory.edu/us/lnacademic/search/XMLCrossLinkSearch.do?bct=A&risb=21_T3812733619&returnToId=20_T3812763552&csi=138620&A=0.30106206653818945&sourceCSI=000000&indexTerm=%23CC0002C1P%23&searchTerm=ExxonMobil%20&indexType=Chttp://www.lexisnexis.com.proxy.library.emory.edu/us/lnacademic/search/XMLCrossLinkSearch.do?bct=A&risb=21_T3812733619&returnToId=20_T3812763552&csi=138620&A=0.30106206653818945&sourceCSI=000000&indexTerm=%23CC0002C1P%23&searchTerm=ExxonMobil%20&indexType=Chttp://www.lexisnexis.com.proxy.library.emory.edu/us/lnacademic/search/XMLCrossLinkSearch.do?bct=A&risb=21_T3812733619&returnToId=20_T3812763552&csi=138620&A=0.30106206653818945&sourceCSI=000000&indexTerm=%23CC0002C1P%23&searchTerm=ExxonMobil%20&indexType=Chttp://www.lexisnexis.com.proxy.library.emory.edu/us/lnacademic/search/XMLCrossLinkSearch.do?bct=A&risb=21_T3812733619&returnToId=20_T3812763552&csi=138620&A=0.30106206653818945&sourceCSI=000000&indexTerm=%23CC0002C1P%23&searchTerm=ExxonMobil%20&indexType=Chttp://www.lexisnexis.com.proxy.library.emory.edu/us/lnacademic/search/XMLCrossLinkSearch.do?bct=A&risb=21_T3812733619&returnToId=20_T3812763552&csi=138620&A=0.30106206653818945&sourceCSI=000000&indexTerm=%23CC0002C1P%23&searchTerm=ExxonMobil%20&indexType=C


24/160

STP Lab 242008

OPEC FLOOD DALINKSRENEWABLES/ALTERNATIVE ENERGY

History is on our sideOPEC floods the market with cheap oil at any sign of USdevelopment of alternative energy sources

Jeffords 91 (Jim, US Senator, 3/21, FNS, lexis)

SEN. JEFFORDS: Thank you very much, Tim, and I am very pleased to be with you and excited about the programs that you have announced here, for this is the onebill right now that will bring us to a point where we can be energy independent, and by doing it in a responsible and very clean way. And I deeply commend SenatorWirth for his efforts in pulling all of these pieces together.

But I'd like to talk to you about the piece that I have contributed as well as supporting the others. To me , the most important thing that we have to do isto ensure, to have an insurance policy and that's what my piece of the legislation is. It is an insurance policy that we can reach the point by 2010 where wehave the option of becoming energy independent. And the only way we can do that is by isolating ourselves by the whims of OPEC andthe price of oil . And how we do that, this provision, is to say okay, we just cannot allow the price to be set by OPEC . And so everytime we get excited about energy from alternative sources they lower the price below that which is competitive and

run the alternative fuels businesses out of business.

Perceived loss of market share to renewables causes OPEC to voluntarily collapse oil pricesgrindsconservation and renewable energy programs to a halt

Zunes 93 (Stephen, Director of the Institutes for a New Middle East Policy, Mideast Policy, January, p. 107)

Despite recent setbacks, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is in a relatively strong position.Even the 1986 collapse of prices was not a result of splintering, but a voluntary decision based on the realization thatprices were too high. The artificially high prices of previous years had resulted in a loss of market share to non-OPECproduces such as Mexico and the North Sea countries, as well as from efforts at conservation and alternative energysources. This pricing strategy worked, not only by challenging non-OPEC oil producers, but by grinding conservationprograms and alternative energy research and development in the United States to a halt.

OPEC fears shifts towards renewable energy or energy savingthey'll flood the world with cheap oil atthe flick of a switch

Campbell 02 (Colin, Analyst @ Oil Depletion Resource Centre, "Petroleum and People," Population and Environment,November, p. ebscohost)

Oil is traded on international markets at a price set by the marginal barrel, giving rise to an unpredictable volatility that obscures the underlying trends of supply anddemand. Prices collapsed in 1998 from a combination of unseasonably warm weather; an Asian recession that reduced the demand for swing Middle East production;the devaluation of the Russian ruble, encouraging Russian exports; and under-estimation of supply by the International Energy Agency, which misled OPEC.Furthermore, there were more sinister motives to talk down the long-term price of oil, as oil companies and their financial advisers planned acquisitions and mergers,which successfully concealed their real predicament from the stock market. Budgets were slashed and staffs purged in a climate of uncertainty. There was an

improvident draw on stocks as demand overtook supply. The OPEC countries, for their part, did everything possible to foster the notionthat they could flood the world with cheap oil at the flick of a switch. It was a strategy aimed to inhibit investments in gas,

non-conventional oil, renewable energy or energy saving that they feared might undermine the market for their oil, onwhich they utterly depend. Their populations are growing fast in an economy dominated by oil.


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27/160

STP Lab 272008

IPI PIPELINE GOOD1NC IMPACT MODULE

--High oil prices are driving Indian support for the IPI gas pipeline

Hindustan Times 4/26/08 (lexis)

Apr. 26--NEW DELHI -- The good news is that the $7 billion Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline project is very muchalive and kicking, contrary to the widespread impression that it will be shelved due to relentless American opposition. Taking things one step further, India hasalso formally joined the Washington-backed $7.6 billion Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline project that would stretch across 1,680 km todeliver gas from the Dauletabad gas field in Turkmenistan to Fazilka on the Indo-Pakistan border by 2015.

On Friday, oil ministers of Pakistan and India announced that they had made "significant progress" in bilateral talks on anumber of outstanding issues on the IPI gas pipeline project and predicted that the project would start supplying natural gas by 2012.Construction work on this project will commence in 2009 and the project would supply natural gas from the South Pars gasfield in Iran on a 50-50 sharing basis

between India and Pakistan. The project would supply 2.06 billion cubic feet of gas per day.The announcement comes a day after the 10th steering committee of oil ministers from Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India on Thursday agreed to startconstruction work on the much-delayed TAPI project.It is, however, premature to uncork the bubbly. India's security concerns have not gone away for both projects as both pipelines traverse through volatile regions. Thethree possible routes for the IPI pipeline, for instance, pass through insurgent Balochistan. India has had an on-off relationship with this project thanks to its tensionswith Pakistan. As for TAPI, the Afghan government has not been able to establish its authority beyond Kabul, and the risk of pipeline being sabotaged by the resurgentTaliban is an ever-present danger.

Since mid-2007, India has not participated in trilateral talks on the IPI project. But there are compelling reasons for NewDelhi to rejoin talks on IPI and formally become a full member of TAPI. Although the Indian government formally denies the 'China factor', it was only afterBeijing expressed an interest in this project --with Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf stating that IPI can well be an Iran-Pakistan-China pipeline--that New Delhi

bestirred itself to restart negotiations with both Islamabad and Teheran.

India's compulsions are basically economic. "As far as India is concerned, we want to settle and activate both [thepipelines] because energy demand in India is so much and oil prices are shooting up," says Petroleum Minister Murli Deora.India will need to import as much as 75 billion cubic metres (BCM) of gas by 2024-25 for rising power generation, fertiliser production, industrial uses and householdconsumption. Thanks to domestic shortages, 13,444 mw of gas-based capacities in the power sector are now generating less power than they can.

As both these pipeline projects become viable with India's participation,New Delhi should leverage its position to get the best possible price forgas. Gas pricing has indeed been a sticking point for the highly controversial IPI project.


28/160

STP Lab 282008

IPI PIPELINE GOOD1NC IMPACT MODULE

--The IPI pipeline is vital to the economic prosperity and political stability of South Asia

Zaidi 6/7/05 (Mazhar, Columnist @ BBC Urdu, "Why Pakistan-India pipeline matters,"http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/4070916.stm)

The agreement between India and Pakistan on a project to pipe gas to India from Iran via Pakistan is being termed bysome observers as historic.Though both countries have as yet only agreed in principle, officials say work on the project could start as soon as within six months.So why is this pipeline project so important and what does it mean for South Asia as a region?

In a world where politics is increasingly driven by battles for energy resources and everyone seems to be talking about 'pipeline politics,' this project could bevital for the economic prosperity and political stability of sub-continent.Take-offIn recent years Pakistan's economy has shown signs of improvement. That's thanks mostly to developments post 11 September and Pakistan's role as a front state in theUnited States' war on terror.The economy of India has been booming for many years now and according to many market analysts it is in a 'take-off' stage and could start influencing the worldmarket in a major way. But despite these improvements, both economies are facing a looming crisis - deficiency of energy resources.

"The Indian economy will not be able to sustain for long if the issue of energy deficiency is not resolved." says M

Ziauddin, editor of the Pakistani daily Dawn."Pakistan also badly needs additional sources of energy as it can neither afford the costs of further exploration and nor can it fulfil its requirement

by any other way."'Hugely benefit'

Mr Ziauddin believes thatthe pipeline from Iran will not only provide the much needed boost to the Indian economy but itwill also become a source of revenue for Pakistan.

"If without investing much Pakistan can start getting $500m-$600m in annual revenue because of the pipeline, there is nothing like it for Pakistan. It will hugelybenefit the economy and resolve the energy crisis also."The implications of the proposed pipeline are not limited to the economic field.

Analysts believe that the laying down of the gas pipeline from Iran to India will also bring about a new set politicalrules.

Lahore-based political analyst and writer Khalid Ahmed thinks the proposed project is truly a historic opportunity forboth the countries to change the politics of the region forever.

"This is the first time in the history of South Asia that such an occasion has arrived. Pakistan can redefine its identity as atransit state in the region and can pave the way for peace and prosperity." According to Mr Ahmed such a project wouldgo a long way in changing the nature of political relationships in the region.

"Instead of basing its identity on animosity towards India, when Indian economic prosperity will also mean prosperity for Pakistan,things will definitely change." That indeed would be a historic change in relations between India and Pakistan.

--South Asian instability risks global nuclear winter

Washington Times 7/8/01 (lexis)

The most dangerous place on the planet is Kashmir, a disputed territory convulsed and illegally occupied for more than 53 years and sandwiched

between nuclear-capable India and Pakistan . It has ignited two wars between the estranged South Asian rivals in 1948and 1965, and a third could trigger nuclear volleys and a nuclear winter threatening the entire globe. The United Stateswould enjoy no sanctuary.


29/160

STP Lab 292008

IPI PIPELINE GOODUNIQUE INTERNALSHIGH OIL PRICES IPIPIPELINE COOPERATION

Record-high oil prices are driving Indian participation in the IPI gas pipeline

Afrasiabi 4/30/08 (Kaveh, political scientist/author, "Iran holds key to India's energy insecurity,"http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JD30Ak02.html)

With oil prices skyrocketing, India's thirst for cheaper imported gas has acquired a greater urgency than ever

before, considering what the Hindustan Times has termed as the growing "supply-demand mismatch" reflected in the recent news that "as against an overallrequirement of 77 million standard cubic meters per day (mmscmd) of gas between April 2007 and January 2008, only 37 mmscmd was supplied".Sure, India has other prospects besides Iran and, in addition to investing in Yemeni oil fields and negotiating with Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar, questing for a pieceof the Iraqi energy market and scouting various African countries (such as Nigeria, Chad, Angola, Cameron and Congo), Indian officials have also been playing catch-up with China in Central Asia lately, seeking deals with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

But with the Turkmenistan's proximity to Iran and Iran's ability to act as an energy corridor for the sub-continent, thesalient importance of Iran is indisputable.

In addition to the US$7.6 billion Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline, India has set its eyes on a Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-

Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline that is, for now at least, more of a pipedreambecause of growing insecurity in Afghanistan, reflected in thebold assassination attempt on President Hamid Karzai in Kabul this week.

High oil prices are spurring Indo-Pak cooperation over the IPI gas pipeline

Khan 4/26/08 (Mubarak, "Energy crisis forces India to join Iran gas pipeline project," DAWN Media group,http://www.dawn.com/2008/04/26/top1.htm)

ISLAMABAD, April 25: Differences between Pakistan and India over the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline projectwere resolved on Friday and the two countries agreed to start work on laying pipelines next year for procuring gas fromIran by December 2012.Talks between the two countries to resolve the differences, mainly relating to transit fee and transportation tariff, failed inJune last year, putting the $7.5 billion peace pipeline project into cold storage. But the current energy crisis andspiralling oil prices brought them back to the table.

Skyrocketing oil prices compels India to pursue gas pipeline cooperation with Pakistan and Iran

Stanley 5/5/08 (John, research scholar with the Centre for West Asian Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University,"Ahmadinejads visit - India intensifies global energy game (Commentary),"http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/uncategorized/ahmadinejads-visit-india-intensifies-global-energy-game-commentary_10045103.html)

New Delhis decision to welcome Ahmadinejad must have taken at least a few of India watchers by surprise. It was just twoyears ago that India, under pressure from Washington, voted twice against the Iranian nuclear programme in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Since

then Indias ties

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