Strategic Convection Products at the AWC - Review of 2005 - P/CCFP experiments

Strategic Convection Strategic Convection Products at the AWCProducts at the AWC

- Review of 2005- Review of 2005- P/CCFP experiments- P/CCFP experiments

Presentation to Friends & Presentation to Friends & Partners of Aviation Partners of Aviation WeatherWeather

Jack May, Director Aviation Jack May, Director Aviation Weather CenterWeather Center

November 11, 2005November 11, 2005

Working Together to Save LivesWorking Together to Save Lives

CCFP Review for 2005CCFP Review for 2005

Thanks to Jennifer Mahoney, Stacey Thanks to Jennifer Mahoney, Stacey Seseske, Mike Kay, and Sean MadineSeseske, Mike Kay, and Sean Madine

Forecast Verification Section Forecast Verification Section

Global Systems DivisionGlobal Systems Division

Earth Systems Research LaboratoryEarth Systems Research Laboratory


FCST

CCFP 2005CCFP 2005 Accuracy (PODy) & Bias ReviewAccuracy (PODy) & Bias Review

OBS

FCST

OBS

PODy 1.0PODy 1.0

BiasBias 4.0 4.0

PODy 0.0PODy 0.0

BiasBias 1.0 1.0

FCSTOBS

PODy 1.0PODy 1.0

BiasBias 1.0 1.0


Figure 3. Monthly averaged PODy scores for convective seasons 2001 through 2005. Scores are from verification of CCFP with the 40-km NCWD. Inset shows the monthly

convection (averaged 2001-2005) as percent coverage over the CONUS.

Historical Comparison (2001-2005)Historical Comparison (2001-2005)

0

0.1

0.2

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0.4

0.5

Month

PO

Dy

20012002200320042005

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep0

1

2

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A M J J A S O

% C

ove

rag

e


Figure 8. Monthly averaged bias scores for convective seasons 2001 through 2005. Scores are from verification of CCFP with the 40-km NCWD. Inset shows the monthly

convection (averaged 2001-2005) as percent coverage over the CONUS.

Historical comparison (2004 vs. 2005)Historical comparison (2004 vs. 2005)

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0.8

1.2

1.6

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Bia

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20012002200320042005

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep0

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A M J J A S O %

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vera

ge


ConsistencyConsistency

Figure 9. Monthly time series of 2004 and 2005 consistency scores and the corresponding percentiles.

http://www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/fvb/publications/articles/kay_consistency_ARAM2004.pdf

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63

67

Per

cen

tile

0.62

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0.66

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0.70

0.72

Co

nsi

ste

ncy

2005

2004

M A M J J A S


Figure 12. The frequency of different combinations of coverage and confidence attributes of CCFP polygons issued over the period 3 April – 1 October 2005. For all lead times combined.


Probabilistic CCFP ExperimentProbabilistic CCFP Experiment


Probabilistic CCFP Experiment Probabilistic CCFP Experiment GoalsGoals

• Give decision tool developers gridded forecasts on an Give decision tool developers gridded forecasts on an operational basis while providing legacy product.operational basis while providing legacy product.

• Determine workstation enhancements needed to Determine workstation enhancements needed to produce probabilistic forecast contours and grids in produce probabilistic forecast contours and grids in time allotted.time allotted.

• Help user community to define ‘probability of WHAT?’Help user community to define ‘probability of WHAT?’

• Allow users to view probabilistic CCFP contours and Allow users to view probabilistic CCFP contours and evaluate potential utility.evaluate potential utility.

• Help forecasters ‘tune’ their probabilistic forecasts Help forecasters ‘tune’ their probabilistic forecasts through verification.through verification.• Increase reliability and accuracyIncrease reliability and accuracy


Side-by-Side PCCFP & CCFPSide-by-Side PCCFP & CCFP


Side-by-Side PCCFP & CCFPSide-by-Side PCCFP & CCFP


Gridded Equivalent Gridded Equivalent (4x actual resolution)(4x actual resolution)

78

38

75


Future P-CCFP WorkFuture P-CCFP Work

• FY2006FY2006• Improve Graph-to-Grid conversion (e.g., better identification of min Improve Graph-to-Grid conversion (e.g., better identification of min

and max)and max)• Improve efficiency of workstation contour construction on Improve efficiency of workstation contour construction on

workstation.workstation.• Get Users into the discussion: “Probability of WHAT?” and Get Users into the discussion: “Probability of WHAT?” and

relevance of P-CCFP.relevance of P-CCFP.• How best to construct and display flight level & storm top How best to construct and display flight level & storm top

information?information?• Another experiment.Another experiment.

• FY2007/08 (pending funding)FY2007/08 (pending funding)• How to best to collaborate contours?How to best to collaborate contours?• Derive legacy CCFP from probability contours.Derive legacy CCFP from probability contours.• Develop verification information for tool makers and producers.Develop verification information for tool makers and producers.• Operational Test and EvaluationOperational Test and Evaluation

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Strategic Convection Products at the AWC - Review of 2005 - P/CCFP experiments