Strategic Security Future for Indo-Asia-Pacific Region

7/31/2019 Strategic Security Future for Indo-Asia-Pacific Region

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STRATEGIC SECURITY FUTUREFOR INDO-ASIA-PACIFIC REGION

Australia; The European Tiger

Zorba Parer


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DEFININGTHE REGION

A China centric view of the region is forming aroundclear data indicating a growth in all elements ofChinese national power

Indo-Asia-Pacific as a hemispherical system

Indo-Asia-Pacific maritime region

The Indian Ocean maritime region

The Pacific Ocean maritime region

Mainland Asia


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SUB-REGIONS

Asia North, East, South, West

Indian Ocean SLOC to Africa, Middle East, Mediterranean, Europe,

Asia and littoral regions Pacific Ocean

SLOC to South America, North America, Siberia, Asia,and Pacific Littoral States

Oceania Passage between Indian and Pacific oceans.

SLOC to Australian east coast and New Zealand

This is a region dominated by maritime geography,and transport economics.


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EXCEPTIONALISM

Quadrella of exceptional States

USA; Global hegemonic power, balancing costs ofmaintaining the Global Commons, with ability toinfluence State to State relations.

China; Communist Billion Citizen State, seeking to risepacifically.

India; Most populous democracy, seeking to ensurecontinued Indian Ocean dominance, and influencewithin the Asia land mass.

Japan; forced demilitarisation, economic powerprojection, civil institutions with monopoly on use offorce within Japanese jurisdiction.


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ARTICLES REVIEWED

Cooperation from Strength The United States,

China and the South China Sea

January 2012, Edited by Patrick M. Cronin

Contributors, Patrick M Cronin, Peter A Dutton, M Taylor

Fravel, James R Holmes, Robert D Kaplan, Will Rogers,and Ian Storey

Power and Choice; Asian Security Futures

Rory Medcalf

International Relations of Asia (2008) Chapter 15 by Ralph A Cossa


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INTERNATIONAL RELATIONSOF ASIA

No settled pattern of order in Asia. All the majorpowers are in processes of transition.

Rise of China as single most significant contributorto regional change in Asian power structures.

India rising, but not as quickly as China.

Need for domestic structural reforms anduncertainties about how best to assert a moreactive international and regional role are evident inJapan.

Russia trying to reassert its Asia presence.

Continued reliance on US military dominance.


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Growing Chinese pre-eminence

Japan seeking to normalise as a nation

India looking east, seeking a more active role in Asia-Pacific

ASEAN; increasingly institutionalised, driving regionalcooperation

Near term security issues Korean Peninsula tensions

China-Taiwan tensions

Continued importance of existing USA-Bilateral securityarrangements

Geopolitical Considerations

Regional geographical considerations


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Pathways to the Future; Two Scenarios

Continuation of current order, moderated by USAprimacy

Dependent on massive military commitments to the region

At risk of a declining USA economy Increased US involvement in regional multilateralism

Multipolar system, with sub-regional hegemensdominating the Indo-Asia-Pacific region

A weakening US

Chinese band wagoning by US allied states

Concert of powers possible (US, China, India, and Russia)

Coalitions attempting to form a balance of powers.


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COOPERATIONFROM STRENGTHCHAPTER I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Main thesis - Cooperative Primacy

Increased US Naval presence, contingent upon ahealthy US Economy.

A new web of US security partnerships

Peace and security assurance in the South China Sea

Increased US economic engagement in the Region

Increased focus on US-China relations, supporting rulesbased system of cooperation and dispute resolution


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History as a record of Chinese geostrategiccentrality in Asia

150 Years of political upheaval after Millennia ofChinese rule

Chinese claims over South China Sea can beunderstood as a Greater Caribbean moment

Constructivism anyone?

Leading Asian arms modernisation

Hemispherical economic dependencies

Could China survive without Japan?


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Nations surrounding China, economically engagedand hedging USA as an offshore balancer

US Chinese conflict not a favourable option for riskaverse minor nations: Australia, NZ, Papua, Indonesia.

Produces bias against any China-US conflict. [Z} Australian Defence Budget as an indicator

Submarines as the ultimate maritime presence

Aerial surveillance and the age drones

Air lift and emergency response


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China rebuffs attempts to move the South ChinaSea disputes from regional to global forums

Great power behaviour evident in Chinese movesto bilateral agreements, versus multilateral

engagement Does USA movement to multilateral engagement signal

a abdication of their Great Power status?

Limits of Realism in an Institutionalised powerstructure?

UNCLOS and other Customary International Lawstend to limit Great Power influence. Theoretical tangent: Is this an example of a self

destructive tendency in Great Power behaviour? Selfenforcing natural laws?


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COOPERATIONFROM STRENGTHCHAPTER II - MARITIME SECURITYINTHE SOUTH CHINA SEAANDTHECOMPETITIONOVER MARITIME RIGHTS

Multiple state claimants over territory is a feature ofgeostrategic reality in the south China sea.

US maritime predominance necessary.

US Neutrality in Regional Dynamics Chinese Maritime realities

ASEAN and Littoral Regions

Conflict avoidance to balance policy for US foreign

diplomacy


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COOPERATIONFROM STRENGTHCHAPTER III - TREATIES

History of Chinese sovereign claim.

Chinese claims not supported by UNCLOS

Maritime Resources

Important fishing grounds Crude oil

Natural Gas

Sea Lane Security

Chinese policy of reassurance, and bilateralagreements between claimants

Engagement through ASEAN in multilateralappeasement, reversed after unpromising start


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COOPERATIONFROM STRENGTHCHAPTER III - TREATIES

China insists on bilateral approach

No substantive agreements have been reached viabilateral approaches

Other claimants prefer multilateral approach to

balance Chinese influence

Failure of the 2002 DoC; further talks

China will continue blocking moves for arbitrationand 3rd party intervention

China will continue asserting effective control overthe South China Sea in pursuit of its sovereign

claims


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COOPERATIONFROM STRENGTHCHAPTER IV -CRACKSINTHE GLOBAL FOUNDATION: INTERNATIONAL LAWANDINSTABILITYINTHE SOUTH CHINA SEA

China asserting interests in ways which threatenthe normative global maritime commons

China seeking to Shape CIL through Statebehaviour

Challenges to established positions of UNCLOS

Three pillars of Modern Globalisation

Open, Market based access to resources and trade

International Institutions fostering stability

Stability in the Global Commons


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Managing the Maritime commons

Right of access to the high seas

Enshrined in UN Charter

Constabulary role of Navies Multiple forms of State maritime jurisdiction

Chinese anti-access policy towards SCS

Regional Baselines

Boundaries at or near the shoreline between a coastalstates fully sovereign territory and the maritime zones

that extend seaward.


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China is seeking to change the rules and normsthat define maritime rights

US and allies should act against this change

US should ratify UNCLOS Great power multilateral dilemma?


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COOPERATIONFROM STRENGTHCHAPTER V THE ROLEOF NATURAL RESOURCESINTHE SOUTH CHINA SEA

Natural Resources

Energy

Fisheries

Minerals

The Challenge of Climate Change

Dynamic interaction between Land and Maritimeresources

Promoting regional stability Alternative Fuels

Adaptive technologies


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COOPERATIONFROM STRENGTHCHAPTER VI ROUGH WATERSFOR COALITION BUILDING

US Maritime Strategy

Good order at sea

Three Principles:

Preserving freedom of the Seas

Ensuring uninterrupted flow of shipping

Facilitating ready movement of goods and people accessacross US frontiers

Current Maritime cooperation in SCS

US assistance programs CARAT and SEACAT

Challenges to Maritime coalition building


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500 years with a global maritime hegemon

Portugal Holland England USA

Multinational trusteeship (Multipolarity) would be anew phenomenon

Dual nature of Navies makes it difficult todistinguish between Competitive and CooperativeState behaviours

The China Factor

Chinese policy assertions of indisputable sovereigntyover SCS islands and waters

Failure of DOC

Reactions to CARAT


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Globalised economy relies of free flow of goods

Southeast Asian states have territorial claims atstake

Beijing view of vital interest against coalitions Washing should work bilaterally to uphold maritime

security


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POWERAND CHOICEFUTURES

Future 1: US Primacy

Future 2: An Asian Balance of Powers

Future 3: Concert of Powers

Future 4: Chinese Primacy Shocks


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ZORBAS THOUGHTS

Commitments made under ASEAN agree to pacificresolution of disputes.

Arbitration offices provided.

Disputes agreed through offsets in resolutions.

Costs of providing courts as a common good.

Dams as an example of transnational water disputes.

Domestic constructivism

Uncertainties arising from domestic politics

Model Theories.

Chinese Maritime presence

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/
http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/


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ZORBA THOUGHTS

Secondary Effects - Cooperative Primacy

Answer to increased traffic through Chinese waters, theenforcement agency grew.

This has led China to effect control of East and South

China Seas. Nuclear capabilities on Hainan Island lead to a South China

Sea predominance.

China continues to assert rights in these matters.

Arbitration as an answer? Not likely, international laws

currently favour the Chinese opposition. China has a negativebias in acceding to any international arbitration.

Assertions of Exceptionalism.


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VIETNAM - MARITIME MOVEMENTS


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VIETNAM - MARITIME MOVEMENTS


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TAIWAN - MARITIME MOVEMENTS


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TAIWAN 8HRS LATER


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EAST CHINA SEA- MARITIME MOVEMENTS


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KOREAN PENINSULA


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JAPAN MARITIME MOVEMENTS


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JAPAN MARITIME MOVEMENTS


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DUTCH MARITIME MOVEMENTS


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MAJOR STRATEGIC FACTORS

US military dominance

Chinese resource demands

Japanese economic power

Indian resource demands Multiple minor to medium sized nations


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MIDDLEAND SMALLSTATES

State Survival

Maintaining Sovereignty

Balancing Great Powers

Engagement through Multilateralism

Documents

Strategic Security Future for Indo-Asia-Pacific Region