Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]

8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]

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Strategies for Full Employment

in IndiaUncommon Opportunities:

Roadmap for Employment, Food & Global Security

November 21, 2004

International Center for Peace & Development, USA

The Mothers Service Society, Pondicherry


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Unemployment

1993-94 20M

1999-00 27M

Twice as high for lower consumption classes On daily basis 35M

Youth Unemployment 13%

Kerala 35%


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Natural Employment Generation

New entrants to labour force ` 7-8M/yr

Urban migration 1M/yr

Agriculture employment is flat

Less growth in unemployment -1M/yr

Natural job generation 7-8M/yr

The absence of social unrest and the fact that urban migration continues and

urban unemployment does not rise enormously indicate the surpluses are

being absorbed.

This is unorganized, unconscious process akin to education without schools

Make the unconscious process CONSCIOUS


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How society stimulates employment

New products

New services

Growth in demand

Technological innovation Higher quality &/or productivity

Organizational innovation

Higher skills

Better access to information

Increased speed

Legislation & law enforcement

Administrative responsiveness

Environment/health consciousness

Change of attitudes


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Three Approaches to Employment Generation

Expand existing activities

Nursery schools, tutorial institutes, English teaching

Borrow from other countries

Credit rating & collection agencies Trade shows & network marketing

Health clinics

Promote culturally compatible activities

STD & chit funds

Marriage halls

Mini-power plants

Rural information centres

Contract farming agencies


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Available Modes of Action

Increase access to credit

Provide incentives for new initiatives

Strengthen or enforce legislation Impart training

Use insurance as a stimulus

Publicize opportunities in the media


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Where are the untapped potentials

Raise farm productivity

Renewable energy

Agro-industrial linkages Service sector

Employable skills

Application of IT


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Prosperity 2000 Strategy

Agriculture as engine for industrialization & employment growth

Shift focus from meeting minimum production needs to maximumizing profit

per unit land & water

Projecting market growth based on nutritional requirements

Raise productivity of soil & water

Shift to commercial crops which absorb more labour

Develop industry linkages with industries

Create 4.5 million direct & 5.5 million indirect employment opportunities per

annum


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Indias Crop Productivity Gap

(kg/ha)

Crop USA China India

Maize 8900 4900 2100

Paddy 7500 6000 3000

Soy beans 2250 1740 1050

Seed Cotton 2060 3500 750

Tomato 6250 2400 1430


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Low farm productivity results in

High unit cost of production

High priced food

Low farm incomes & purchasing power

Low labour absorption

High water consumption/unit of produce

Limited export potential & threat from imports

(e.g. cotton)


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Technology Strategies

Raise crop yields

Raise water productivity

Improve post-harvest storage & transport

Expand & upgrade processing industries

Raising productivity can create millions of on-farm and

off-farm employment opportunities.


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Horticulture

Labour content 6 times cereals

Generates 10-30 times earning / unit area

Filling Indias nutritional gap requires 40% growth

Add 4M ha horticulture to raise production 40%

Generate 8 million jobs


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Food Processing

Improve storage & processing to reduce Rs 70,000 crores in

crop losses

Global share of processed food exports is rising

India processes only 2% fruits & vegetables vs. Thailand 30%,

Brazil 70%, Philippines & Malaysia 78-80%)

India projected to process 10% fruit & veg by 2010

Industry directly employs 1.6M


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P

ower Demand toT

riple by 2020

4

6

1

1

14

1


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Biomass Power Generation

Cultivate energy plantations -- casuarina, bamboo, prosopis

on rain-fed & irrigated lands

Power plants 6-25 MW cost Rs 3 cr per MW Cost/unit Rs 2.50 on biomass at Rs 800 per ton

Develop 10 million ha of energy plantation

Establish 4000 units, 40,000 MW

Reduce transmission losses

Create 5 million jobs


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Oil Demand to Triple by 2020

0 50 100 150 200 250

Power

Industry

Transport

Agriculture

Commercial

Domestic

Total

Projected demand for oil in million tonnes

1997 BAU 2020 BCS 2020


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Biomass Power & Bio-Fuels

Biomass power

Biofuels

Ethanol

Biodiesel


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Bio-diesel from Jatropa

Develop 5 million ha

Earn Rs 20,000 per acre (irrigated) from 3rd yr

Establish 2500 oil expeller units

Produce 10 MT biodiesel valued at Rs 20,000 cr

Create 5 million jobs


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Ethanol from Sugarbeet & Sweet Sorghum

Sugarbeet produces twice the sugar in 5 mon

Only 40% water consumption

Add or shift 3 M ha for sugarbeet Additional 15 MT sugar for export or ethanol

Raise sweet sorghum for ethanol rest of year

Produce 10 MT tons ethanol for domestic & export

Generate 8 million jobs


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EdibleO

il fromP

aradiseT

ree India imports Rs 6,000 cr of edible oil / year

Paradise tree is rainfed, oil-seed crop from Brazil containing

50% edible oil

Cultivate 5 M ha Paradise Tree on degraded forest lands

Establish 2500 oil expeller units

Produce 7. 5 MT of edible oil worth Rs 22,000 crores Create 2.5 million year-round jobs


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Cotton & Textile Industry

India is 3rd largest producer of cotton

Domestic demand projected to grow 70% by 2010

Export demand projected to triple by 2010

Double productivity of cotton

Double area under irrigated cotton

12 million additional jobs in textile industry


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Forestry, Herbs, Medicinal Plants

100 M rely on forests for main source of

livelihood, including half of Indias 70M tribals

Objective to raise forest cover 50% in 10 ys

Introduce corporate contract farming with bonded

performance guarantees & assured employment

for local population


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Fisheries

World seafood market doubled in the 1990s

Indias marine & inland fisheries employ 6M

1/3rd of Indias marine fishery potential untapped

China full-time employment in rural aquaculture

1989 1.5M

1997 3.3M

Shrimp farming -- 4 direct & 4 indirect jobs per ha

1999 161,000 ha generates employment for 1.3M

Additional 120,000 ha would create 1M jobs


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Dairy

Rs 100,000 crores by 2005

India is largest and lowest cost producer

70M dairy farmers

Cooperatives provide employment for 11M

families

Potential for 42M jobs


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EmploymentP

otential -- summaryCrop productivity growth 5,000,000

Horticulure 8,000,000

Biomass power & bio-fuels 21,000,000

Agro-forestry 6,000,000

Cotton & Textiles 12,000,000

Dairy, animal husbandry, fisheries 8,000,000

Total 60,000,000


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EmploymentP

otential -- detailsCrop productivity growth 5,000,000

Horticulure 4 M hectares 8,000,000

Biomass power 10 M ha 5,000,000

Ethanol 3 M ha sugarbeet + s. sorghum 8,000,000

Jatropa 10 M ha 8,000,000

Paradise Tree 4 M ha 2,000,000

Other agro-forestry, medicinal herbs 4,000,000

Cotton & Textiles 12,000,000

Dairy, animal husbandry, fisheries 8,000,000

Total 60,000,000


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Organization for Rural Prosperity

Self Help Groups

Contract Farming

Rural Information Centers

Farm Schools


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SelfHelp Groups

1 million created in 3 years

15 million members benefit

90%+ repayment of loans

Mostly for non-farm activities

Commodity-wise SHGs for agriculture

Appachi Foundation & ICICI 60 SHGs for cottongrowers in Tamil Nadu


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Contract Farming

Successful Indian model -- sugar mills

Organize SHGs of farmers

Role of the Contractor

Provide quality inputs

Arrange credit with banks

Arrange crop insurance

Deliver extension services

Tie-up market with industry

Operate farm schools


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Farm Schools cum Extension

Objective: double farm yields in 3 years

Lead farmers act as paid field training &extension staff for the contractor

Lead farmers run Farm Schools on village lands Demonstrate methods on farmers lands

Train farmers & disseminates information

Operate or link to Village Information Centre

Link to soil test labs Link to agro-service centres


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Rural IT Knowledge Centres

Mission 2007 500,000 village centres Can create 5 jobs per centre

Can charge for services

Soil analysis -- e

xpert system for advice

Multi-media farm training

Input supply information

Market information

Educational information

Health information

E-government services

Other vocational training


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Ag Enterprises -- Policy Issues

On-farm training system

Enforce sanctity of contracts

Expand access to credit through SHGs with group guarantees & post-

dated checks, including present defaulters.

Extend powers of Revenue Recovery Act to ensure repayment by SHGs.

Tax credits for contractors who raise farm productivity

Strengthen crop insurance program

Penalties for false documentation by officials

Penalties for adulteration of ag inputs

Railways to provide refrigerated storage & transport


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Service Sector

USA: provides 80% of jobs

India:

Grew by 60M jobs in 18 yrs

Rose from 25% to 32% of total employment

High potential fields

Tourism

Transport, storage, communication Education

Health care

Financial services

Internet-based activities


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Internet-based Self-Employment

Desktop publishing

Web design

Web research

E-books

Translation

Technical writing

Engineering & technical services

Opportunities from Rs 5000 to 1 lakh per month


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Vocational Skills

50% of firms in developing and industrialized

countries report severe shortage of skilled workers.

Indias problem is not lack of employmentopportunities but lack of employable skills.

Skills create employment and self-employment

opportunities.


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Vocational Training in India

4200 ITIs 1,654 government run

2,620 private

Courses offered 43 engineering & 24 non-engineering trades

Capacity 6.3 lakhs

State enterprise programmes 1.7 lakh

Including agriculture & other 20 lakh


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Vocational Training Deficit

Students completing 8th

-9th

standard 300 lakhs

Students entering 10th-11th 150 lakhs

New entrants to workforce (per year) 70 lakhs

Vocational training in engineering, agriculture &other fields

20 lakhs

New entrants to workforce w/o training 50 lakhs

Existing unemployed youth (15-29) of which 80%are educated up to 10th

150 lakhs

Existing workers to be trained to raise non-ag

skilled portion to 25%

350 lakhs


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Vocational Schools

Promote vocational institutes at block and district level

5000 govt

50,000 private

Conduct exams for every skill as for drivers licenses

Certify approved training centres, e.g. BPO

Provide scholarships & incentives for trainees


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Computer-based learning is

twice as fast @half t

he cost

Multimedia

Interactive

Immediate Feedback Self-paced learning

Eliminates need for trained teachers

Responds rapidly to changing skill needs

Uniform testing


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Computerized Vocational Training

Establish 1 lakh CVT Institutes like internet cafes

50,000 in private sector

50,000 training centres at engineering and arts

colleges, ITIs, polytechs, high schools, NGOs, etc. Partnership with industry to develop multimedia

training software

Provide training to a minumum of 4 million students

per annum Government certification of courses

Generate self-employment opportunities for 50,000entrepreneurs


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Multimedia vocational courses

RWH Child care Nutritionist

Selling skills Real estate Law clerk

Telemarketing Insurance agent Quality manager

Catering Video editing Furniture design

Farm mgmt Pharma rep Textile design

Reporter Dry cleaning Electrical repair

Travel agent Internet research Graphic design

Bookkeeper Organic farming Interior design


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CVT Job Shops

Privately owned, self-employment

Each centre with 1 to 10 computers

Stocked with a library of training software

Training material on CD-Rom format

Fees based on an hourly rate


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CVT Job Shop: Assumptions

Three computers per Job Shop

20 training programmes per Job Shop

Each computer utilized 300 hours per mo

Operating expenses for rent, two paid

employees, phone, electricity may range from

Rs 15,000 to 20,000 per month


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CVT Job Shop: Economics

Capital investment Rs 1.5 lakh.

Cost of operations per computer hour = Rs 20 / hour.

Cost of amortising of computers and software over two

years = Rs 14 per hour

Average cost of training = Rs 35 per hour

Average retail price of training = Rs 50 per hour

Net profit = Rs 15 per hour or Rs 1.5 lakhs / yr

50 hours of computerized vocational training, equivalent to

about 250 hours of classroom training, would cost the

student only Rs 2500.


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Training Software: Economics

Cost Rs 50 lakhs per course

Retail price Rs 1000 per set

Sale of 10,000 sets generates Rs 50 lakhs profit

Offer 50% government subsidy for development

of approved courses


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CVT Action Plan

1. Delivery CVT through all state-owned engineering colleges, ITIs,

Polytechnics, liberal arts colleges, high schools, other institutions.

2. Provide financial assistance/ incentives under Central Government self

employment schemes to promote private training institutes.

3. Encourage financial institutions to provide loans to entrepreneurs.

4. Negotiate with computer software companies to develop a wide range

of vocational training courses.

5. Recognized institutional authorities to certify course contents.

6.Finance bulk purchase of approved training software with 50% subsidyto minimize the cost of training.

7. Train entrepreneurs to set up/manage private institutes.

8. Provide scholarships to low income youth to cover training fees.


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IT IncubatorBusiness Parks

Computerised vocation training

Computerised tuitions institutes

Computerised language training

Software training

Video-conferencing services

High speed data transfer services

Web, graphic and animation design services

Computer repair and maintenance services

International Internet telephony

Computer hardware parts manufacturing and assembly

Customer and technical support call centres

Back office processing

Medical transcription

Digital photography, scanning and image processing

Internet research services

Accounting services

Computerized testing laboratories


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Who creates enterprises?

Skilled experienced workers leaving existing jobs

create enterprises

Machinists

taxi drivers

hotel servers

bus cleaners

Printers

tailors

Do entrepreneurial training programmes work?


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Promoting Entrepreneurship

Extend bank credit & seed capital to employees

with 5 years experience

Require training & certification for new enterprisesto reduce failure rate

Existing entrepreneur to sign as guarantor

Insurance companies can ensure loans based onqualifications


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Issues for Study

Natural job creation How many jobs are being created?

In which sectors & fields?

By what process?

How can the natural process be magnified and accelerated?

How are rural migrants absorbed in the cities?

Occupational demand Identify high growth occupational categories at all levels

Measure growth in pay/income levels by category

Emerging Activities Identify emerging occupations in all sectors,

Farm managers & Soil technicians

Servicing for cell phones, ACs, computers, VCDs, etc.

Home delivery, floor cleaner, masseuse

Skills for national development Compile a complete list of skills needed for Indias development to next higher level

Job creation in other countries Study which job categories grew rapidly in US during a comparable period?

Efficacy ofEntrepreneurial Development Programmes

Documents

Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]